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7973fdc9-12d1-448e-a00c-642b018fde07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality and overriding human preferences: a combined model
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Previously, I presented a model in which a “rationality module” kept track of two things: how well a human was maximising their actual reward, and whether their preferences had been overridden by AI action.
... |
3ed01fe0-c59a-49fb-b1eb-286e173e233f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frequentist practice incorporates prior information all the time
I thought that the frequentist view was that you should not incorporate prior information. But looking around, this doesn't seem true in practice. It's common with the data scientists and analysts I've worked with to view probability fundamentally in te... |
ce440296-2f75-4210-bd55-b641648735b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82
The new discussion thread (part 15) is here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 82. The previou... |
c7650036-e753-4efe-bf07-34e3d6b756b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Three Stories for How AGI Comes Before FAI
*Epistemic status: fake framework*
To do effective differential technological development for AI safety, we'd like to know which combinations of AI insights are more likely to lead to FAI vs UFAI. This is an overarching strategic consideration which feeds into questions lik... |
da9042ca-3fb8-4dde-b6dd-ac4f620ed5ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | cognitive biases regarding the evaluation of AI risk when doing AI capabilities work
cognitive biases regarding the evaluation of AI risk when doing AI capabilities work
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
i have recently encountered a few rationality failures, in the... |
509b002a-61d4-4ccb-a731-45f09da885ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gentleness and the artificial Other
(Cross-posted from my website. Audio version here, or search "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.
This is the first essay in a series that I’m calling “Otherness and control in the age of AGI.” See here for more about the series as a whole.)
When species meet
The most succi... |
8dc1a783-88d4-4e4d-a730-b3bef17d040a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do we know our own desires?
Sometimes I find myself longing for something, with little idea what it is.
This suggests that perceiving desire and perceiving which thing it is that is desired by the desire are separable mental actions.
In this state, I make guesses as to what I want. Am I thirsty? (I consider drin... |
16daa3e9-6df2-48dc-918e-355e8536315a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The utility of information should almost never be negative
As humans, finding out facts that we would rather not be true is unpleasant. For example, I would dislike finding out that my girlfriend were cheating on me, or finding out that my parent had died, or that my bank account had been hacked and I had lost all my ... |
56937ee3-9f54-4df2-8199-58e8194b7c60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Prisoner's Dilemna tournament
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Prisoner's Dilemna tournament
WHEN: 13 July 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the National Portrait Gallery for... |
dc4577ad-df43-4239-a75b-63bb04ba3f77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Design Space of Minds-In-General
People ask me, "What will Artificial Intelligences be like? What will they do? Tell us your amazing story about the future."
And lo, I say unto them, "You have asked me a trick question."
ATP synthase is a molecular machine - one of three known occasions when evolution has inve... |
a026176d-7625-4deb-8052-77114ea85a9f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Explaining Data-Driven Decisions made by AI Systems: The Counterfactual Approach
1 Introduction
---------------
Data and predictive models are used by artificial intelligence (AI) systems to make decisions across many applications and industries. Yet, many data-rich organizations struggle when adopting AI decision-... |
38f95f89-5035-4e88-8eb8-8e4e3ce4a2c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $250K in Prizes: SafeBench Competition Announcement
TLDR: CAIS is distributing $250,000 in prizes for benchmarks that empirically assess AI safety. This project is supported by Schmidt Sciences, submissions are open until February 25th, 2025. Winners will be announced April 25th, 2025.
To view additional info about ... |
ce35a908-8cb3-4986-9635-87cb33cc93f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 1/28: Muddling Through
Three different time frames, three different fronts. We continue to muddle through, with some hope that this could be successful relative to our modest expectations.
There’s the situation short term, there’s the new strains, there’s the vaccines.
On the short term front, forward looking... |
f2134748-2f92-485a-95a2-4d09bb963fb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When and why did 'training' become 'pretraining'?
Just an ML linguistic quirk I have wondered about for a while. When I started learning ML (in 2016-2017 period) everybody referred to the period of training models as just 'training' which could then (optionally) be followed by finetuning. This usage makes sense to me ... |
86b7d016-855c-4dd5-914c-714703f3183c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Possible Resolution To Spurious Counterfactuals
Spurious counterfactuals (perhaps an easier handle than "the lobian inference issues described in Section 2.1 [here, in the Embedded Agency paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.09469.pdf) ), are important to address because they lead to inference problems. Having a functi... |
94e948ca-1b8d-4b16-97e9-3e1c5388bba4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Switching to Google Calendar
When I first started keeping a calendar, in 2006, it was just an HTML table on my website:
Over time, I extended it to generate an iCal feed and wrote several commands to make it easier to add entries to the table (proc_schedule). I knew it was a peculiar way of doing things, but it met... |
422cbf8a-eab5-4a5a-86ac-0fbbdc89cda8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Praising the Constitution
I am sure the majority of the discussion surrounding the Unites States recent Supreme Court ruling will be on the topic of same-sex marriage and marriage equality. And while there is a lot of good discussion to be had, I thought I would take the opportunity to bring up another topic that seem... |
edc74e2a-a2a0-4c40-b1bb-6b8f79172203 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Unsupervised Question Decomposition for Question Answering
1 Introduction
---------------
WHERE: Drexoll Games, 2880 W 4th Ave, Vancouver, BC
Hello everybody. We are having our first monthly friendly social games meetup. The idea is to have a bigger meetup where n... |
d9908c1b-cc1e-4122-b1e0-aae72b4ece53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spring 1912: A New Heaven And A New Earth
And so it came to pass that on Christmas Day 1911, the three Great Powers of Europe signed a treaty to divide the continent between them peacefully, ending what future historians would call the Great War.
The sun truly never sets on King Jack's British Empire, which stretche... |
acd492d0-ff9e-42a3-ac3e-de1b16cfdb3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Image Test
Editing in IE6! |
cbb6ff28-aab2-49cf-8da0-d24dcd4de7b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Cooking
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Cooking
WHEN: 04 April 2016 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to cook! If you want to lead a cooking team, send me an email or pm (sooner rather than later would be ideal), and... |
56d09e86-54f4-416f-beee-38d876b9ab1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (My understanding of) What Everyone in Technical Alignment is Doing and Why
Epistemic Status: My best guess
Epistemic Effort: ~75 hours of work put into this document
Contributions: Thomas wrote ~85% of this, Eli wrote ~15% and helped edit + structure it. Unless specified otherwise, writing in the first person is by... |
48096db9-71f9-457c-aca0-c75403889083 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | ""What is red?""Red is a color.""What's a color?""A color is a property of a thing." But what is a thing? And what's a property? Soon the two are lost in a maze of words defined in other words, the problem that Steven Harnad once described as trying to learn Chinese from a Chinese/Chinese dictionary.
Alternatively, if ... |
c24532c1-62ba-4a40-9708-4c97370a5cd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Y Couchinator
Crossposted to Tumblr.
*This project never really had critical mass and is no longer operative; it did later inspire another project, also now defunct.*
There are a lot of people - there are probably incredibly tragic mountains of people - who just need one or three or six no-pressure months on someone... |
fa71a7bb-0559-496d-9c63-6e983d23c628 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How to measure FLOP/s for Neural Networks empirically?
Experiments and text by Marius Hobbhahn. I would like to thank Jaime Sevilla, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Tamay Besiroglu, Lennart Heim, and Anson Ho for their feedback and support.
### **Summary:**
We measure the utilization rate of a Tesla P100 GPU for training di... |
97ad135c-b6ee-437e-bbb5-1376e23600c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reminder: AI Safety is Also a Behavioral Economics Problem
Last week, OpenAI released the official version of o1, alongside a system card explaining their safety testing framework. Astute observers, most notably Zvi, noted something peculiar: o1's safety testing was performed on a model that... wasn't the release vers... |
dddabfdd-bec8-4859-a186-20d70af88983 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modal Combat for games other than the prisoner's dilemma
Modal Combat for arbitrary games
Modal combat has, as far as I know, only been studied in the context of the prisoner's dilemma, but it can also be used for other games. The definition of modal agent for an arbitrary game will be similar to the definition of mod... |
76937dfa-a639-431b-b95d-060887885f1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free online course: How to Reason and Argue starting Mon. Any interest in study group?
I am going to take the free Coursera class "Think Again: How to Reason and Argue" starting Monday, January 13 (three days from now) and I thought I'd to see if there was any interest in going through this as a group. This is one of ... |
f337d8ce-1c65-4937-a863-d7e6f8985e8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Source Search (Summary)
Below post may be an older version of this document. Click link for latest version.
2025-06-20
Open Source Search (Summary)
Disclaimer
* Quick note
* I support a complete ban on AI R&D. This app requiring AI doesn't change that.
Summary
* This document describes how to build an op... |
ad67ee45-950f-4333-8691-c2e68071c9c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brain preservation to prevent involuntary death: a possible cause area
(Cross-posted at the Effective Altruism Forum)
Previous EA discussions of this topic: here, here, here, and here. Note that these primarily focus on cryonics, although I prefer the term brain preservation because it is also compatible with non-cr... |
86e16fb9-22fd-49b5-a1f6-80978e3909f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin mentions LessWrong, discusses the various camps and ideologies in Cryptocurrency development
Vitalik says cryptocurrency developers should "reach out to LessWrong more", in order to not be ignorant of advanced computer science and game theory topics.
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/12/... |
06988e8a-d690-49a6-ad33-cfd44969e69e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Factorial
Factorial is most simply defined as a [https://arbital.com/p/-3jy](https://arbital.com/p/-3jy) on positive [integers](https://arbital.com/p/48l). 5 factorial (written as $5!$) means $1*2*3*4*5$. In general then, for a positive integer $n$, $n!=\prod_{i=1}^{n}i$. For applications to [combinatorics](https://ar... |
850758f8-bcaa-40b4-bb0b-4b307a679eb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | .
. |
827f6b98-f81e-4f6c-8e3e-55fda979e4ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Reasons I’ve been hesitant about high levels of near-ish AI risk
I’ve been interested in AI risk for a while and my confidence in its seriousness has increased over time, but I’ve generally harbored some hesitation about believing some combination of short-ish AI timelines[[1]](#fn-immvC8AAtNwyWxrDi-1) and high risk l... |
1eaff370-3877-42d2-9653-f734f995a4db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oversight Misses 100% of Thoughts The AI Does Not Think
Problem: an overseer won’t see the AI which kills us all thinking about how to kill humans, not because the AI conceals that thought, but because the AI doesn’t think about how to kill humans in the first place. The AI just kills humans as a side effect of whatev... |
8fcdc911-2961-420d-81cb-9cbf55dba25f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast with Demis Hassabis
Demis Hassabis was interviewed twice this past week.
First, he was interviewed on Hard Fork. Then he had a much more interesting interview with Dwarkesh Patel.
This post covers my notes from both interviews, mostly the one with Dwarkesh.
HARD FORK
Hard Fork was... |
039622f8-4e53-46c5-a6c9-df1724dd09c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: Applied Rationality in a New Year
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: Applied Rationality in a New Year
WHEN: 05 January 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Rossiya, Moscow, ulitsa Ostozhenka 14/2
We will meet at “Subway” restaurant, entrance from Lopukhinskiy pereulok. Look for a table with “LW... |
aa93699a-27a5-4ce4-add1-51901173d329 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A conversation with Rohin Shah
**Participants**
----------------
* [**Rohin Shah**](https://rohinshah.com/) — PhD student at the Center for Human-Compatible AI, UC Berkeley
* Asya Bergal – AI Impacts
* [**Robert Long**](http://robertlong.online/) – AI Impacts
* Sara Haxhia — Independent researcher
**Summary**
------... |
2ded2f11-b3b3-45f0-94fd-7180f6427bf3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Much is a Sweet?
For about two years our system has been that the kids get one sweet before dinner and one sweet after dinner. They like to divide their allocation up ("can I have pancakes with half a sweet of chocolate chips?"), and this has been a good opportunity for teaching fractions. But how much is a sweet?... |
0e79ed9d-5851-4d93-9ce8-a3c688d52751 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Think About Activation Patching
This is an excerpt from my post on attribution patching, that I think is of more general interest, around how to think about the technique of activation patching in mechanistic interpretability, and what it can and cannot teach us. You don't need to know what attribution patching... |
3df8cafd-0357-4eb3-b6c9-faf8fe11ff4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long COVID risk: How to maintain an up to date risk assessment so we can go back to normal life?
Despite Zvi's "Long Long Covid Post" concluding in February that Long COVID risk among healthy, vaccinated individuals is low enough that it's worth pretty much going back to normal life, I haven't felt comfortable doing s... |
33a86bb6-3a77-42de-be53-83aa42f470a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nate Soares' Life Advice
Disclaimer: Nate gave me some life advice at EA Global; I thought it was pretty good, but it may or may not be useful for other people. If you think any of this would be actively harmful for you to apply, you probably shouldn't.
Notice subtle things in yourself
This includes noticing things ... |
eb6f66ff-afd1-427d-be45-f142e8a1054e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does?
A post about how, for some causal models, causal relationships can be inferred without doing experiments that control one of the random variables.
If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does?
> To help address problems like the two example pro... |
0be39de0-8b2b-4403-9ffc-b1d8f94ebd23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open question: are minimal circuits daemon-free?
*Note: weird stuff, very informal.*
Suppose I search for an algorithm that has made good predictions in the past, and use that algorithm to make predictions in the future.
I may get a "[daemon](https://arbital.com/p/daemons/)," a consequentialist who happens to be mot... |
dffbc163-82cc-4e9b-a1ef-b4cc38a22b9e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Unsupervised Learning of Visual 3D Keypoints for Control.
1 Introduction
---------------
Learning to act from raw, high-dimensional observations like images is arguably the only viable way to scale sensorimotor control to complex real-world setups. However, the main challenge lies in figuring out the representation... |
0d75b6dc-bd3f-4533-bf0a-a78f31d53c99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there rationality techniques similar to staring at the wall for 4 hours?
I'm wondering if one exists, and what is the name of that technique or that family of techniques. It seems like something that CFAR has researched extensively and layered a lot of things on top of.
4 hours is necessary for anything substant... |
52caa175-22a1-4d4a-ba3a-ac618760d661 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some in depth / meta-analytic, professionally edited wiki's? Examples inside
I'm sure most people here are familiar with http://www.scholarpedia.org , a well curated encyclopedia of scientific topics.
I recently came across http://examine.com/ which is a combination of encyclopedia and meta-analysis for supp... |
826cc4a1-6bd7-4310-b365-ecb93ee199eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dimensional regret without resets
TLDR: I derive a variant of the RL regret bound by Osband and Van Roy (2014), that applies to learning without resets of environments without traps. The advantage of this regret bound over those known in the literature, is that it scales with certain learning-theoretic dimensions rath... |
00a2c940-b9f9-4b5b-a077-43e07ed784b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | We Ran an Alignment Workshop
**TL;DR:**
----------
AI Safety at UCLA ran an alignment workshop for community members interested in testing their aptitude for theoretical alignment research. Attendees spent the weekend trying to make progress on [these open problems](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NVVtdsfz7HiseVF... |
9d4573b8-5cf2-4d76-a7f7-02bdf9370463 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #38
Merry Christmas!
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
Highlights
AI Alignment Podcast: Inverse Reinforcement Learning and the State of AI Alignment with Rohin Sh... |
f01040e6-a426-489e-8e01-9618703941d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predicted corrigibility: pareto improvements
Corrigibility allows an agent to transition smoothly from a perfect u-maximiser to a perfect v-maximiser, without seeking to resist or cause this transition.
And it's the very perfection of the transition that could cause problems; while u-maximising, the agent will not ta... |
8744945a-87ec-4a33-905a-720632e82e6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Jim Babcock – The AGI Containment Problem – CSRBAI 2016
it was been a serial entrepreneur in
fields of programming machine learning
and medicine and has volunteered with
FLI Jim is here to talk today about
problems in computer security
that we might want to focus on in
advance in order to build safe testing
environmen... |
09e6f11f-d5bb-445d-a545-2ce06ceb9a5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minimal Motivation of Natural Latents
Suppose two Bayesian agents are presented with the same spreadsheet - IID samples of data in each row, a feature in each column. Each agent develops a generative model of the data distribution. We'll assume the two converge to the same predictive distribution, but may have differe... |
9200ba5c-801c-4b1c-9f16-a14cb6b77da6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How is ARC planning to use ELK?
Let's say we arrive at a worst-case solution for ELK, how are we planning to use it? My initial guess was that ELK is meant to help make IDA viable so that we may be able to use it for some automated alignment-type approach. However, this might not be it. Can someone clarify this? Thank... |
e3756a54-607f-4494-bd38-90745d900bf7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Remarks 1–18 on GPT (compressed)
Status: Highly-compressed insights about LLMs. Includes exercises. Remark 3 and Remark 15 are the most important and entirely self-contained.
Remark 1: Token deletion
Let T be the set of possible tokens in our vocabulary. A language model (LLM) is given by a stochastic function μ:T∗→... |
c362f01a-b8cd-4bc5-834d-2f8be38a2ee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply now to Human-Aligned AI Summer School 2025
Join us at the fifth Human-Aligned AI Summer School in Prague from 22nd to 25th July 2025!
Update: We have now confirmed our speaker list with excellent speakers -- see below!
Update: We still have capacity for more excellent participants as of late June. Please help u... |
44caabf3-ae23-4553-9238-fcb97a4df817 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Level up your spreadsheeting
Epistemic status: Passion project / domain I’m pretty opinionated about, just for fun.
In this post, I walk through some principles I think good spreadsheets abide by, and then in the companion piece, I walk through a whole bunch of tricks I've found valuable.
Illustrated by GPT-4o
Who... |
10023eb8-983a-4b5f-aa67-b3d69c8ff638 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress on Causal Influence Diagrams
By Tom Everitt, Ryan Carey, Lewis Hammond, James Fox, Eric Langlois, and Shane Legg
Crossposted from DeepMind Safety Research
About 2 years ago, we released the first few papers on understanding agent incentives using causal influence diagrams. This blog post will summarize prog... |
d3cefe6e-f5dd-4000-bca5-26148a5a5596 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity
*(Originally posted to the* [*Deepmind Blog*](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Specification-gaming-the-flip-side-of-AI-ingenuity)*)*
**Specification gaming** is a behaviour that satisfies the literal specification of an objective without achieving the intended out... |
6cfc6fa7-58e3-4520-b548-8b177ee31e79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Hadi Esmaeilzadeh on Dark Silicon
 [Hadi Esmaeilzadeh](http://www.cc.gatech.edu/~hadi/) recently joined the School of Computer Science at the Georgia Institute of Technology as assistant professor. He is the first holder of the Catherine M. ... |
0dd228f1-6bd2-4bd3-bdb4-e02bc04ca64f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do advancements in Decision Theory point towards moral absolutism?
From my understanding reading through the site, each successive decision theory builds off of previous models in an upward progression: CDT/EDT is surpassed by the "winning" paradigm of TDT, which in turn is surpassed by the updateless paradigm of UDT/... |
979d0689-a050-4db5-8e53-f5d5250428aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | -
- |
1a5bb057-fb34-4c56-9515-9ff422a1532d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Caller Gender III
When I looked at the genders of dance callers at large contra dance events several years ago there was an interesting pattern where events were more likely to book a man and a woman than you'd expect by chance. With more years worth of data to look at, I thought it was worth checking if this w... |
6e146d1f-696d-4e8c-b090-e1adb2b707fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Plague in Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
Spoiler Alert: Contains minor spoilers for Assassin’s Creed Odyssey
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey has become my quaratine game. A gorgeous tour of ancient Greece is a great antidote to never going outside.
One noteworthy thing in the game is how it deals with plague. You encounter it tw... |
5205fbe1-0247-42ff-91f1-b17cc5b49246 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AlexaTM - 20 Billion Parameter Model With Impressive Performance
Amazon trained a seq2seq model that outperforms GPT-3 on SuperGLUE, SQuADv2, and is not (that) far behind PaLM with 540 billion parameters.
Article: https://www.amazon.science/publications/alexatm-20b-few-shot-learning-using-a-large-scale-multilingual-s... |
34a68ab4-f07c-4ae1-904c-ea37a7137f57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A closer look at modal bargaining agents
|
1d9f86be-07a8-4d34-840f-33c8dbfa161e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Housing Roundup #11
The book of March 2025 was Abundance. Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are making a noble attempt to highlight the importance of solving America’s housing crisis the only way it can be solved: Building houses in places people want to live, via repealing the rules that make this impossible. They also t... |
11b497f8-b6bc-4558-8d08-ef34a4eff0f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Two-monthly London Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Two-monthly London Meetup
WHEN: 03 July 2011 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: 64-68 Kingsway, Holborn, London WC2B 6BG
After two months of having the smaller fortnightly meetups, the time has come to have another two-monthly London meetup! It will be o... |
d3fbfb6a-3bc9-4bf7-b8f6-0619286e13c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence as a bad
An interesting new article, "Cooperation and the evolution of intelligence", uses a simple one-hidden-layer neural network to study the selection for intelligence in iterated prisoners' dilemma and iterated snowdrift dilemma games.
The article claims that increased intelligence decreased coopera... |
2948d400-4ae9-478d-909c-095b4e84f89c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Online Learning 1: Bias-detecting online learners
Note: This describes an idea of Jessica Taylor's, and is the first of several posts about aspects of online learning.
Introduction
Thanks to the recent paper on logical inductors, we are currently interested in what can be done with weighted ensembles of predictors. ... |
416335db-d2bb-48f6-a5ae-7de50d6aafd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Collaborator for a Singularity Comic Book
I’m currently writing a book called Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More Dangerous World. The book will be published in about a year by BenBella Books. This will be my third published book.
I’m thinking about also making a singul... |
1dd79c7d-fca4-4127-9745-ed50905dba5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SSC Discussion: No Time Like The Present For AI Safety Work
(Continuing the posting of select posts from Slate Star Codex for comment here, for the reasons discussed in this thread, and as Scott Alexander gave me - and anyone else - permission to do with some exceptions.)
Scott recently wrote a post called No Time Li... |
e34a86ae-8419-4458-894b-a957e8de13c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 21: Value learning
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the [ann... |
a87f6934-7fd1-43e0-8842-c489a1e79c77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spiral Staircase
Here was the life cycle of an insight:
> “If I put this candle in an all-white gallery space, it looks like a piece of art. If I put it in a garage, it looks like a piece of trash. [...] I often use this analogy in design. I could either design the candle, [...] or I could just design the room that i... |
52298ee2-ab51-4d8f-81cf-e0f6bb2e60fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The alignment problem in different capability regimes
I think the alignment problem looks different depending on the capability level of systems you’re trying to align. And I think that different researchers often have different capability levels in mind when they talk about the alignment problem. I think this leads t... |
883b3cc9-694e-418a-b0c0-9a71a6b4048e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness: A Compression-Based Approach
TL;DR: To your brain, "explaining things" means compressing them in terms of some smaller/already-known other thing. So the seemingly inexplicable nature of consciousness/qualia arises because qualia are primitive data elements which can't be compressed. The feeling of there... |
58744d9b-a490-49d0-849e-079ef2aa529a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Roodman's GWP model translates to TAI timelines
How does David Roodman’s world GDP model translate to TAI timelines?
Now, before I go any further, let me be the first to say that I don’t think we should use this model to predict TAI. This model takes a very broad outside view and is thus inferior to models like A... |
566b2ede-8a21-43fd-9d99-458ffa24d584 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Friendly UI
I want to bring up some questions that I find crucial to consider about technology in the present day. To contrast with Friendly AI, these questions are about our interaction with technological tools rather than developing a technology that we trust on its own with superhuman intelligence.
1. How are c... |
4d65d98b-7a57-42f2-ae6f-29fba833e3e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why Not Subagents?
Alternative title for economists: Complete Markets Have Complete Preferences
> The justification for modeling real-world systems as “agents” - i.e. choosing actions to maximize some utility function - usually rests on [various coherence theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/c... |
a4bb9006-e178-4171-a4ca-33add54a9a30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Effort
Epistemic Effort: Thought seriously for 5 minutes about it. Thought a bit about how to test it empirically. Spelled out my model a little bit. I'm >80% confident this is worth trying and seeing what happens. Spent 45 min writing post.
I've been pleased to see "Epistemic Status" hit a critical mass of... |
84a86bab-bdbd-4221-9975-107422531ec2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critiquing Risks From Learned Optimization, and Avoiding Cached Theories
What I'm doing with this post and why
I've been told that it's a major problem (this post, point 4), of alignment students just accepting the frames they're given without question. The usual advice (the intro of this) is to first do a bunch of ba... |
e489fc50-69d6-486c-9710-ba729b1dd6b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A potential problem with using Solomonoff induction as a prior
There's a problem that has occurred to me that I haven't seen discussed anywhere: I don't think people actually wants to assign zero probability to all hypotheses which are not Turing computable. Consider the following hypothetical: we come up with a theo... |
e7787c84-76b8-4d64-bbf8-510be70b54a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
*Notes:*
* *I give a visual explanation of Ajeya Cotra’s draft report,* [*Forecasting TAI with biological anchors (Cotra, 2020)*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines)*, summarising the key assumptions, intuitions, and c... |
5422a8e5-7970-4ca1-8919-49c6f362f114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attacking machine learning with adversarial examples
|
e373420e-c726-45da-ae20-40b593742c7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why AGI Timeline Research/Discourse Might Be Overrated
I no longer stand by this post, and will preserve it here for history reasons.
> TL;DR: Research and discourse on AGI timelines aren't as helpful as they may at first appear, and a lot of the low-hanging fruit (i.e. motivating AGI-this-century as a serious possib... |
2748262c-b180-472c-9641-3a34ca623578 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Fooled by Randomness
The book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2001. On Amazon, the book has a rating of 4.3, rated by 1,124 people, with 62% of reviewers giving 5 stars. On Goodreads, it has a rating of 4.07 from 1,968 ... |
1e6034a8-3415-407a-8e28-2393a10624f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will DNA Analysis Make Politics Less of a Mind-Killer?
I wrote an article for h+ predicting that the rapid fall in the cost of gene sequencing will allow U.S. voters to learn much about presidential candidates' DNA. The candidates won't be able to stop this because:
> humans shed so much DNA that unless a politician... |
68444149-7c15-4253-bdd1-18896008d924 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Effective Altruism Groningen
Hey!
We are EA Groningen, a small effective altruism community in the northern Dutch student town Groningen. We meet at least once a month in our regular pub: the Harbour Café. Besides that we organize lectures and learning meetups, and sometimes we have some projects running.
... |
54d9f11d-811f-4385-96eb-4fff1c06e9c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Goal-conditioned Imitation Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown impressive results in a plethora of simulated tasks, ranging from attaining super-human performance in video-games Mnih et al. [[2015](#bib.bib1)], Vinyals et al. [[2019](#bib.bib2)] and board-games Silver et al... |
707b030f-72b9-440d-87b0-573a20200cd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kinds of Motivation
1. I want to do X.
2. I want X to be done.
3. I want to be the kind of person who Xs.
4. I want to be seen as an Xer.
These are the four kinds of motivation I learned about at LessOnline, and they provide a framework for investigating one’s desires that I have found to be both very challenging... |
e2c0ec1f-582e-42be-b70a-f159398a9519 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #57: All the AI News That’s Fit to Print
Welcome, new readers!
This is my weekly AI post, where I cover everything that is happening in the world of AI, from what it can do for you today (‘mundane utility’) to what it can promise to do for us tomorrow, and the potentially existential dangers future AI might pose f... |
ed3d8770-f829-4e64-8a68-bd11a10071d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tokenized SAEs: Infusing per-token biases.
tl;dr
* We introduce the notion of adding a per-token decoder bias to SAEs. Put differently, we add a lookup table indexed by the last seen token. This results in a Pareto improvement across existing architectures (TopK and ReLU) and models (on GPT-2 small and Pythia 1.4B). ... |
7ac1ebfd-f641-4be1-b48d-5bcd7a3a6c58 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Humans can be assigned any values whatsoever…
*(Re)Posted as part of the AI Alignment Forum sequence on* *[Value Learning](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/4dHMdK5TLN6xcqtyc).*
> **Rohin’s note:** In the last [post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/4dHMdK5TLN6xcqtyc/p/h9DesGT3WT9u2k7Hr), we saw that a good broad val... |
1a937390-6457-4583-8382-75f24e99faea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ∀: a story
I settle into my seat at the concert, pushing my earbuds in tight. The man next to me looks over, and I get the feeling he’s judging me, but it’s not enough to stop me: I heard they sometimes try to scare you with sudden loud noises, or just overwhelm you with a wall of sound until your head is aching, and ... |
6cf933b0-6dbf-411a-ab55-bf9a858bbd56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI presidents discuss AI alignment agendas
None of the presidents fully represent my (TurnTrout's) views.
TurnTrout wrote the script. Garrett Baker helped produce the video after the audio was complete. Thanks to David Udell, Ulisse Mini, Noemi Chulo, and especially Rio Popper for feedback and assistance in writing t... |
c7cc1650-5074-4041-bc25-b1f8ac071684 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comparing representation vectors between llama 2 base and chat
(Status: rough writeup of an experiment I did today that I thought was somewhat interesting - there is more to investigate here regarding how RLHF affects these concept representations)
This post presents the results of some experiments I ran to:
* Extr... |
702732f1-f3fc-4d23-9312-79ec8cac067b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | DeepMind x UCL | Deep Learning Lectures | 8/12 | Attention and Memory in Deep Learning
hello and welcome to the UCL ex deepmind
lecture series my name is Alex graves
I'm a research scientist at deep mind
and I'm going to be talking to you today
about attention and memory in deep
learning so you may have heard people
... |
fdf9a3da-a1d1-480c-86b8-c709ec40a1d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpretability Will Not Reliably Find Deceptive AI
Disclaimer: Post written in a personal capacity. These are personal opinions and do not in any way represent my employer's views
TL;DR:
* I do not think we will produce high reliability methods to evaluate or monitor the safety of superintelligent systems via cur... |
492f33ad-37f6-4e81-b7ca-206ad0bed305 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Causality, Responsibility and Blame in Team Plans.
1 Introduction
---------------
Many objectives can be achieved (or may be achieved more effectively) only by
a coalition or team of agents. In general, for the actions of the agents in the
team to be successful in achieving the overall goal, their activities must b... |
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