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430b1c2c-65bb-434c-81e6-3676cec44316 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Immodesty, Deceit and Motivated Reasoning
It seems that there is another reason for immodesty apart from Inadequacy. If you are walking with someone who looks at the $20 bill from a far and obviously dismisses it as fake, while you are considering going to pick it up, then you might want to think why she is doing this... |
93d7d32e-29ba-41b0-95ab-f044bb5cfe94 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AGI Battle Royale: Why “slow takeover” scenarios devolve into a chaotic multi-AGI fight to the death
**Introduction**
When trying to persuade people that misaligned AGI is an X-risk, it’s important to actually explain how such an AGI could plausibly take control. There are generally two types of scenario laid out, de... |
8c40f3b1-4d14-48a7-af55-68334af3714d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yoshua Bengio: "Slowing down development of AI systems passing the Turing test"
Full text of the blog post below:
> I recently signed an open letter asking to slow down the development of giant AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 –those that currently pass the Turing test and can thus trick a human being into believ... |
0c743b55-bb1d-40d1-8389-433d8960bf4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes from the Hufflepuff Unconference
April 28th, we ran the Hufflepuff Unconference in Berkeley, at the MIRI/CFAR office common space.
There's room for improvement in how the Unconference could have been run, but it succeeded the core things I wanted to accomplish:
* Established common knowledge of what problems ... |
9374584b-fc53-47d3-8294-30f81c57e629 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I ask an LLM to think step by step, how big are the steps?
I mean big in terms of number of tokens, and I am thinking about this question specifically in the context of training windows vs context windows. This question is inspired by an Andrew Mayne tweet covered in AI #80: Never Have I Ever:
> Most AI systems ar... |
d9d759ff-5bc0-477c-ae20-6a3b1f9e7aca | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post642
We’ve been spending a lot of time recently thinking about how to mitigate risks posed by scheming (a.k.a. deceptively aligned) models intentionally subverting your safety techniques in order to cause an unacceptable outcome. We empirically investigated techniques that are robust to intentional subversion i... |
f7e821b8-d6c7-4add-ac0f-fb44953dbc5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infinite Data/Compute Arguments in Alignment
This is a reference post. It explains a fairly standard class of arguments, and is intended to be the opposite of novel; I just want a standard explanation to link to when invoking these arguments.
When planning or problem-solving, we focus on the hard subproblems. If I’m ... |
ce7d83e9-76cd-4ff1-ba77-407cca5e77d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Mechanistic Transparency for Machine Learning
Cross-posted on [my blog](http://danielfilan.com/2018/07/10/mechanistic_transparency.html).
[EDIT (added Jan 2023): it's come to my attention that this post was likely influenced by conversations I had with [Chris Olah](https://colah.github.io/about.html) related to the ... |
5ce85f19-2efd-41bd-b558-a42d43a612e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI Superalignment: Weak-to-strong generalization
|
2bf8d386-d659-4ce4-8265-44dbba0f4f9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Capitalist Agent
With the ongoing evolutions in “artificial intelligence”, of course we’re seeing the emergence of agents, i.e. AIs which can do rather complex tasks autonomously.
The first step is automation, but of what?
First comes the stuff where humans currently act like computers anyway: sales, marketing, ... |
98ff7550-315d-435d-962e-93b758e8291c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the requirements for being "citable?"
A sort of... "stretch goal", for the 2018 Review, is developing a system wherein LessWrong has proven itself credible enough for some posts to actually be citable by other institutions.
I'm not sure how much of this has to do with "just actually do a good job ensuring ac... |
19f900db-9874-4eb9-9fc6-1a1f3355b88c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Karma 2.0? (A Kabbalistic Explanation)
It was Easter Sunday, the obvious time to improve the karma system.
Why? Well, firstly, why do we even have a karma system? You might think that the obvious explanation is Buddhist karma, but the Bible can in fact explain this fact all by itself.
In the West, the word ‘karm... |
027aeb32-e630-4df0-94c3-73d9d6635e33 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Hybrid Intelligence for high quality large scale deliberation
all right
let me share my screen
okay so well thank you for the
introduction luciano
welcome everyone today as we have said
we're going to talk about high quality
online deliberation using hybrid
intelligence
but uh and well me and my colleague hill
but wel... |
4c5a2a5b-a9ae-403b-94f3-b6ba7e1f9e31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The economy is mostly newbs (strat predictions)
If the world economy were a game where the objective is to gain resources & power, then I would say that we're collectively newbs. We're presently protected from some of the extremes of capitalism (etc) by the fact that the board (etc) does not actually MAXIMIZE sharehol... |
74e3eec2-127a-43f3-af4a-c78bce0899a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Combat vs Nurture & Meta-Contrarianism
My initial reaction to Combat vs Nurture was to think "I already wrote about that!" and "but there should be three clusters, not two". However, looking at my old posts, I see that my thinking has shifted since I wrote them, and I don't describe the three clusters in quite the way... |
694d2896-3fd4-4a89-a5ae-4d144a6af775 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Epistemic Authority of Deep Learning Pioneers
Introduction
------------
In response to recent advances in machine learning and the subsequent public outcry over the safety of AI systems, deep learning pioneers Yann LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, and Geoffrey Hinton (henceforth “the pioneers”) have spoken up about what the... |
bec72a0e-3c18-4b96-b339-443a9f5cefb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Search, and ye shall find
Hey, reader, how did you get here? Are you subscribed to Putanumonit? Clicked on a tweet or a status or a post? Followed a trail from SlateStarCodex or LessWrong? Either way, you probably know what to expect here. And, you deserve what’s coming to you.
But some people took a more interesting... |
0ca4233c-3ff4-4848-999c-534167700230 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GroupThink, Theism ... and the Wiki
In response to the The uniquely awful example of theism, I presented myself as a datapoint of someone in the group who disagrees that theism is uncontroversially irrational.
With a loss of considerable time, several karma points and two bad posts, I now retract my position.
Becau... |
aa2b5b4f-06a9-4316-85f0-d0e421b9e9f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tessercube — OpenPGP Made Mobile
I cited several words from my colleague Neruthes. He's not at LessWrong but he also joined the most recent Shanghai LessWrong meetup: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/zR4atrRmiaqGLvjYj/shanghai-lesswrong-meetup#NZHcXphJXcsTFwpmf
----------------------------------------
Recently we ha... |
bf1acd6f-dde8-4095-a648-b1f9b3bdb10a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Conversation with Tom Griffiths
### Participants
* [**Professor Tom Griffiths**](http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom/index.php), Director of the Computational Cognitive Science Lab and the Institute of Cognitive and Brain Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley.
* **Finan Adamson**, AI Impacts.
**Note**... |
917b7bea-de43-4493-8225-4a8424f494c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How worried are the relevant experts about a magnetic pole reversal?
This article and many others like it describe a phenomenon where the Earth's magnetic poles occasionally switch directions. The key ideas seem to be:
1. Earth's magnetic poles occasionally switch places.
2. This probably happens on a semi-regular ... |
67d3d693-40ed-4681-b24f-2dda4ca52556 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Capsules for Object Segmentation
1 Introduction
---------------
Object segmentation in the medical imaging and computer vision communities has remained an interesting and challenging problem over the past several decades. Early attempts in automated object segmentation were analogous to the if-then-else expert syst... |
a1f8c706-fd88-4677-b6d2-22814efe1890 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #141]: The case for practicing alignment work on GPT-3 and other large models
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have eve... |
81520554-1496-453c-bddf-8dd0cf1b12ea | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post913
One of the biggest reasons alignment might be hard is what I’ll call threat obfuscation: various dynamics that might make it hard to measure/notice cases where an AI system has problematic misalignment (even when the AI system is in a controlled environment and one is looking for signs of misalignment). I ... |
e4ee341f-3bff-4f76-b216-ab0c7994ae3b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk
Summary: AGI isn't super likely to come super soon. People should be working on stuff that saves humanity in worlds where AGI comes in 20 or 50 years, in addition to stuff that saves humanity in worlds where AGI comes in the next 10 years.
Thanks to ... |
04bd0c8f-9466-41af-aacc-8f0ae3496f86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | post
Previously proposed LessWrong projects that have not materialized and could form the basis for such a group:
1. The Simple Math of Everything
2. Social.lesswrong.com/CUA (mea culpa)
3. Threaded sub-reddits
4. Lesswrong University
|
1e50b782-dc0e-4f2f-896a-97ac18a47cf6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2023 Survey Results
The Data
0. Population
There were 558 responses over 32 days. The spacing and timing of the responses had hills and valleys because of an experiment I was performing where I'd get the survey advertised in a different place, then watch how many new responses happened in the day or two after that.
... |
516be071-926f-4840-9b3d-744669111500 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meetup
WHEN: 23 February 2016 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St, Manchester, NH 03104
The thirteenth NH meet-up is Tuesday, 2/23, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read... |
75004c3d-dfd1-4e74-90ef-b8a812af3243 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Four Phases of AGI
AGI is not discrete, and different phases lead to different opportunities, risks, and strategies
> “How long until AGI? I’d say -1 years from now.”
> “Considering the worst-case outcomes of AGI, I’m most concerned about the effect on jobs.”
> “AGI will be like corporations, so we will control it li... |
2ea382ba-ee3a-4f74-9a89-914ccf3008f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Attention in value-based choice as optimal sequential sampling.
Fixation patterns in simple choice re
ect
optimal information sampling
Frederick Callaway1*, Antonio Rangel2, and Thomas L. Griths1,3
1Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
2Departments of Humanities and Social Sciences and ... |
9ac90401-989c-4db3-9135-24db7aefeeb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Ontology-based Queries over Cancer Data
1 Introduction
---------------
In the biomedical sciences, the use, exchange and integration of the ever-increasing amount of data has become paramount to accelerate the discovery of new approaches for the detection, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of diseases. In particu... |
52e08bfb-1ebd-4c0f-95ac-91af4441a34a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards Understanding the Representation of Belief State Geometry in Transformers
Recently, I have been trying to understand whether we can extract human-interpretable information from the geometry of internal representations in transformer models. In other words, can we combine ideas from conceptual interpretability ... |
705adb6a-fe36-4a56-af75-575031d8bc53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | ordering capability thresholds
*(this post has been written for the third [Refine](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the-model-behind) blog post day)*
given an AI which is [improving towards](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-takeoff) ever more capabilities, ... |
55a0a362-e414-4813-af2a-727034ef5384 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thought Experiments Provide a Third Anchor
Previously, I argued that we should expect future ML systems to often exhibit "emergent" behavior, where they acquire new capabilities that were not explicitly designed or intended, simply as a result of scaling. This was a special case of a general phenomenon in the physical... |
8ab73662-5ca3-44e9-b70a-5fc8d134ffb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : *Monthly* Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : *Monthly* Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 30 July 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2128 Oxford Street, Berkeley, CA 94704
The monthly meetup will gather at the usual Oxford St Starbucks, and from there we'll move to the outside area at the Free Speech Cafe.... |
8c162e4d-164d-43a3-a416-1fca9f21c856 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Does The Natural Abstraction Framework Say About ELK?
Credit to Adam Shimi, Alex Flint, and Rob Miles for discussions, counterexamples, and general input to the ideas here.
Quick recap for anyone who didn’t read the hundred-page Eliciting Latent Knowledge document:
* We have a diamond in a vault, with a bunch ... |
8fc52422-d253-4cf3-958d-0b5bacd55798 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | METR: AI models can be dangerous before public deployment
Note: This is an automated crosspost from METR. The bot selects content from many AI safety-relevant sources. Not affiliated with the authors or their organization.
----------------------------------------
Many frontier AI safety policies from scaling labs (e... |
2863249a-7ca8-4fc7-a0d0-412c2f628687 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Slightly Evil" AI Apps
The term "Slightly Evil", coined by internet guru Venkatesh Rao, refers to actions and choices that are advantageous from a game-theoretical perspective, are not inherentlyevil (that is, not unambiguously evil in the relevant contexts), but are outside the norm as judged from a naive social pe... |
93a10fe2-0f7d-46f9-af55-8f38c6014402 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion of Slate Star Codex: "Extremism in Thought Experiments is No Vice"
Link to Blog Post: "Extremism in Thought Experiments is No Vice"
_____
> Phil Robertson is being criticized for a thought experiment in which an atheist’s family is raped and murdered. On a talk show, he accused atheists of believing that ... |
218a17e8-f9da-4e6c-a28d-1fa1e5fce9ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Israel Less Wrong Meetup - Social and Board Games
WHEN: 15 May 2014 07:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Google Tel Aviv
We're going to have a meetup on Thursday, Mat 15th at Google Israel's offices, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon st.... |
c00b4ab9-372b-4652-bcf5-2f721633dfdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In defense of anthropically updating EDT
Suppose you’re reflecting on your views on two thorny topics: decision theory and anthropics.
* Considering decision problems that don’t involve anthropics (i.e., don’t involve inferences about the world from indexical information), you might find yourself very sympathetic to... |
dee624ce-9841-4087-bf12-6f4e5b9efcd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's Ok to Dance Again
In March 2020 contra dances, along with most everything else, shut down. For most of the time since I would have considered it irresponsible to hold a dance regardless of whether it was currently legal, but at this point I think holding dances with masks and vaccination required is reasonable. T... |
f43a251b-5cbf-4377-815a-db0ee401618c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theoretical "Target Audience" size of Less Wrong
[Note: This is very rough but I’m looking for feedback and help on doing this estimate so I wanted to just post it quickly and see if others can help.]
I’ve been trying to estimate the theoretical upper-bounds (or lower-bounds) on the *potential* community size of LW.... |
f1d3c8ce-3120-4a69-95e2-43c415474ea0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Technique Taboo
For a strange few decades that may just be starting to end, if you went to art school you'd be ostracised by your teachers for trying to draw good representational art. "Representational art" means pictures that look like real things. Art school actively discouraged students from getting better at ... |
56940bf3-282b-40d1-9408-735771bf3a91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Cartesian Crisis
The Cartesian Crisis, as detailed in this more verbose essay, represents an unprecedented existential threat to humanity's ability to discern reality from fiction. We stand at a critical juncture where the foundations of truth are being systematically dismantled by a perfect storm of technological... |
7aeb8dd0-a5a8-41ff-92db-025b28a90c63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simplify EA Pitches to "Holy Shit, X-Risk"
TL;DR If you believe the key claims of "there is a >=1% chance of AI causing x-risk and >=0.1% chance of bio causing x-risk in my lifetime" this is enough to justify the core action relevant points of EA. This clearly matters under most reasonable moral views and the common d... |
81d73995-9df3-4736-b7f1-d952c8237870 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Friendly Face (Another Failure Story)
*Edit: Based on the comment by Daniel Kokotajlo, we extended the dialog in the chapter "Takeover from within" by a few lines.*
The perfect virtual assistant
-----------------------------
The year is 2026 and the race for human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI) draws ... |
290c8419-e61c-40c2-9cc1-745bc787838d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | March Coronavirus Open Thread
This thread was created on 3/8/2020, or approximately one million years ago in virus time. It’s getting pretty bloated now, and a lot of things that were high value at the time have been eclipsed by events, making karma not a very useful sorting tool. So I’m declaring this thread finished... |
ab885066-5628-4eff-a361-88e8c57c82ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mapping the Social Mind (Buttons)
I said before that normal people were like a vast wall of buttons. Each button triggers a response: out pops a slip of paper with a rehearsed mini-speech, or an idea about what to do. Very much like cached responses, each one being triggered as its corresponding concept is activated b... |
f7c30b1b-a0f2-4bef-83c1-3831de16557e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Rohin Shah on reasons for AI optimism
[](http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/rohin_shah.jpg)Rohin Shah
I along with several AI Impacts researchers recently talked to talked to Rohin Shah about why he is relatively optimistic about A... |
73c3b446-6dd7-45a3-93b1-bc156038267a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Community norm question: brief text ad signatures
I've written several posts on this site, many of which were promoted to the front page. Some of my writings have been quite popular. Looking through the Google Analytics stats for this site showed that my writing has had at least 50 000 unique views over time. The full... |
c0e03ef5-3cdf-4afe-b873-77986bba86bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 20 April 2012 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 55 Walsh St, West Melbourne, 3003
EDIT - The meet up has been moved to the Trike Apps office - 55 Walsh St, West Melbourne, 3003. Ben has requested this due to being ill. The ti... |
83ee999a-b097-4e78-b7c9-0b4d3c860545 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Eliezer Yudkowsky interview on We Want MoR, the HPMOR Podcast
Folks will probably enjoy the new Eliezer Yudkoswky interview on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. |
9eeac076-e34d-40c7-9bec-7e1d351043f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
Can GPT-3 predict real world events? To answer this question I had GPT-3 predict the likelihood for every binary question ever resolved on Metaculus.
Predicting whether an event is likely or unlikely to occur, often boils down to using common sense. It doesn't take a geniu... |
c009ecd3-fbbb-4ab5-8552-fe0dfc9e77c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | ALBA on GitHub
I’ve put up an implementation of [ALBA](https://medium.com/ai-control/alba-an-explicit-proposal-for-aligned-ai-17a55f60bbcf) on GitHub [here](https://github.com/paulfchristiano/alba).
The key method is ALBA(H, n), which hopefully implements an aligned AI. To actually use it, you would need to replace t... |
8caf48ae-4025-4eba-81fa-e58e40cf142a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | University of Oxford, Master's Statistical Science
This article is part of a series of articles on different European master's programs related to artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Summary
This programme runs for 1 year, composed of 2 terms of 8 weeks, followed by a 3-month dissertation over the summer. ... |
cda4f658-a141-4e17-9bb3-5a566ae4bb91 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Multiple Choice Normalization in LM Evaluation
Let $x\_{0:m}$ be the prompt, and $x\_{m:n\_i}$ be the $i$th possible continuation with a token length of $n\_i - m$. There are several ways to use a language model to rank multiple possible continuations to a prompt. Since the language model only gives (log) probabilitie... |
323a6c55-286c-430c-b5e6-2d6bbe90908e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Coordination Styles
In game theory, assumptions of rationality imply that any "solution" of a game must be an equilibrium.* However, most games have many equilibria, and realistic agents don't always know which equilibrium they are in. Certain equilibrium strategies, such as tit-for-tat in iterated prisoner's dile... |
0e07c176-9db4-46ac-87ad-3d19c4e140a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Piling bounded arguments
TL;DR: A series of valid bounded arguments all arguing the same proposition can only provide as much evidence as that proposition at best, so even if it looks like they're piling up in favor of a higher point, they're only as good as the most central of them.
Epistemic status: Armchair episte... |
5ed01969-35eb-4775-9f2c-5f218bedede7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Inside View of AI Alignment
I started to take AI Alignment seriously around early 2020. I’d been interested in AI and machine learning in particular since 2014 or so, taking several online ML courses in high school and implementing some simple models for various projects. I leaned into the same niche in college, ta... |
7703dbcd-82db-450d-8b62-9d7a3acff33b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Section 7: Foundations of Rational Agency
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; fl... |
eb2ae4cd-0687-4ae6-bdb2-e234c124b0ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpretability with Sparse Autoencoders (Colab exercises)
Update (13th October 2024) - these exercises have been significantly expanded on. Now there are 2 exercise sets: the first one dives deeply into theoretical topics related to superposition, while the second one (much larger) includes a streamlined version of ... |
e6f83957-fd87-4d99-a276-843176e651c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will Donald Trump complete his first term?
PredictIt has the "yes" at 0.80 cents: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term
Polymarket has the "yes" at 0.85 cents: https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term
My intuition is telling me that there's an... |
9be859b0-7e16-4232-b12a-c83c4aee7d85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Probability Estimation in Face of Irrelevant Information
-···- - ···---- ····-- -- --�--- ····- � ···-·· ·
Probability Estimation in face of Irrelevant Information
Adam J. Grove
Department of Computer Science
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305
grove@cs.stanford.edu
Abstract
In this paper, we consider one a... |
69446d50-de1a-4ad1-b803-343ed31bce12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A brief tutorial on preferences in AI
Preferences are important both for rationality and for Friendly AI, so preferences are a major topic of discussion on Less Wrong. We've discussed preferences in the context of economics and decision theory, but I think AI has a more robust set of tools for working with preferences... |
6532309f-c4ed-4657-be0c-16529d06e380 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effectively Handling Disagreements - Introducing a New Workshop
On May 25th, 2023, someone posted a review of How Minds Change on LessWrong. It talked about Street Epistemology, Deep Canvassing, and Smart Politics, ways of handling disagreements that open the possibility of rational belief progression through amicable... |
950bb8ad-fa71-4ad3-8824-a1ce83576c7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky: Ask Your Questions
As promised, here is the "Q" part of the Less Wrong Video Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky.
The Rules
1) One question per comment (to allow voting to carry more information about people's preferences).
2) Try to be as clear and concise as possible. If your questio... |
f317e59e-5505-4128-9602-ac271bcecad9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: the Iliad
Translated by Emily Wilson
1.
I didn't know what the Iliad was about. I thought it was the story of how Helen of Troy gets kidnapped, triggering the Trojan war, which lasts a long time and eventually gets settled with a wooden horse.
Instead it's just a few days, nine years into that war. The... |
c1ee3d89-94fd-43b9-ab4b-f8367171421a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] A survey on over 300 works about interpretability in deep networks
Toward Transparent AI: A Survey on Interpreting the Inner Structures of Deep Neural Networks
Tilman Räuker* (traeuker@gmail.com)
Anson Ho* (anson@epochai.org)
Stephen Casper* (scasper@mit.edu)
Dylan Hadfield-Menell
TL;DR: We wrote a survey... |
e5e61c0e-bc01-460f-af98-a0d178eb8ab0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preference over preference
Each individual person has a preference. Some preferences are strong, others are weak. For many preferences it's more complicated than that; they aren’t static, and we change our preferences all the time. Some days we don't like certain foods, sometimes we may strongly dislike a certain s... |
583416ff-9a98-4db8-9eb7-7bd99f8a3822 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Deception & Generality in Scalable Oversight (Another OpenAI Alignment Review)
Just like you can test your skill in experimental design by reviewing existing experiments, you can test your skill in alignment by reviewing existing alignment strategies. Conveniently, Rob Bensinger, in name of Nate Soares ... |
171e87b4-58ea-45d3-a1da-ff23eff37e3f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Ontology identification problem
[https://arbital.com/p/toc:](https://arbital.com/p/toc:)
# Introduction: The ontology identification problem for unreflective diamond maximizers
A simplified but still very difficult open problem in [https://arbital.com/p/2v](https://arbital.com/p/2v) is to state an unbounded program ... |
9772ba53-c767-442c-a527-22c2110f20d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vulnerabilities in CDT and TI-unaware agents
The aim of this post is illustrating the need to take into account decision-making and incentive considerations when designing agents. This post is also a proof that these considerations are important in order to ensure the safety of agents. Also, we will postulate that the... |
a4a25f70-dc0b-4dc1-a0c4-cd35966fc6ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Dance Dialect Survey
Fifteen years ago I travelled to a bunch of dances and wrote something up ( pdf) on how people tended to dance in different areas. I'm curious how this has changed over the years, and while I have my observations I'd like to get some better data. So! I'm running a survey, and would find you... |
87ac8b26-9ba4-4fb8-8d00-98882be03ffb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - trying something new!
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - trying something new!
WHEN: 05 February 2017 11:00:00AM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg 4th floor, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
We're going to try something for the next... |
0db0fad9-69cf-48cf-86c2-85ea538a0227 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Draft: Inferring minimizers
This post is a draft, a work in progress. Much of it will not make sense, and will not be optimized for the reader's experience. It does not necessarily reflect my current best understanding of optimization. Like the introduction draft, I'm opening it up because I've been working on this pr... |
45202d35-69f3-45d1-9504-c5433f9f25b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gödel and Bayes: quick question
Kurt Gödel showed that we could write within a system of arithmetic the statement, "This statement has no proof within the system," in such a way that we couldn't dismiss it as meaningless. This proved that if the system (or part of it) could prove the logical consistency of the whole, ... |
2ee4ebfa-7346-447d-9f3d-c04442d8a66b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Exploring Fluent Query Reformulations with Text-to-Text Transformers and Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Query reformulation and paraphrase generation techniques are employed for a variety of purposes in natural language processing (NLP), such as dialogue generation [[27](#bib.bib55 "Question ... |
1897b7e8-b99f-418d-b267-0e5b1342e526 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | China’s Plan to ‘Lead’ in AI: Purpose, Prospects, and Problems
|
0b97e873-5286-4cac-ba62-9b95fc2fd6c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental Rationality 4.1: Modeling Habits
[Instrumental Rationality Sequence 4.1/7.]
[This is part 1 of a 3-part sequence on habits, which is itself part of the greater Instrumental Rationality Sequence. This was initially one monstrous article; in the interests of readability, I've decided to split it into three... |
91d149b4-2d4c-4565-914e-6c569c599243 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Disentangling Perspectives On Strategy-Stealing in AI Safety
*This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the Stanford Existential Risks Institute ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program.*
*Additional thanks to Ameya Prabhu and Callum McDougall for their thoughts and ... |
22465306-9c47-4dcc-9fb5-b65ce6500b0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters)
Do you like using numbers to represent uncertainty and preference, but also care about things like fairness and consent? Are you an altruist on a budget, looking to do the most good with some of your resources, but want to pursue other goals too? Are you looking for a way ... |
cf97b558-7e22-4e68-8bec-e9f6d45a8b64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Cambridge] Sunk Cost Kata
Discussion article for the meetup : [Cambridge] Sunk Cost Kata
WHEN: 19 May 2013 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 21 Ames St, Cambridge, MA
We'll present the Center for Applied Rationality's material on sunk costs and go over their exercises on how to apply this knowledge in daily life.... |
0bb2db51-643b-4fba-9a96-3994b1e051f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI labs' statements on governance
June 6, 2024: THIS POST HAS BEEN SUCCEEDED BY Companies' policy advocacy. READ THAT INSTEAD OF THIS. THIS POST WILL NOT BE MAINTAINED.
This is a collection of statements on government policy, regulation, and standards from leading AI labs and their leadership.
As of 7 August 2023, I... |
c2d0b618-f1c8-488d-866e-afb8ddf2438e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | MetaAI: less is less for alignment.
Summary
=======
In May 2023, MetaAI submitted a paper to arxiv called [LIMA: Less Is More for Alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11206). It's a pretty bad paper and (in my opinion) straightforwardly misleading. Let's get into it.
The Superficial Alignment Hypothesis
===========... |
f24bdc5c-b3da-42fb-9598-b1062e98818c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Semiotic Fallacy
Acknowledgement: This idea is essentially the same as something mentioned in a podcast where Julia Galef interviews Jason Brennan.
You are in a prison. You don't really know how to fight and you don't have very many allies yet. A prison bully comes up to you and threatens you. You have two option... |
9d51fac0-0de5-4a87-b2a8-d541817ed6bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If your Cryonicism would be Movie Topic, would you go with it? (Real Issue)
Today this girl I met comes to my place, allegedly to get some books about her new interests, singularity, immortalism, cryonics.
Actually, she wanted to ask me a question, a question about which I could use some rational opinion.
She says: ... |
e65391fe-960d-47be-9315-c431646d4682 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 247. Eliciting Latent Knowledge 1
hello and welcome to session
247 in the aisafe.com reading group
tonight we will be discussing the
article eliciting latent knowledge how
to tell if your eyes deceive you by paul
christiano elliacotra
this is the first work that's been done
publicly by the alignment research
center a ... |
7d1b7686-c09b-4ebf-8366-9d09324b2ac0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Hassabis, Altman and AGI Labs Unite - AI Extinction Risk Statement [ft. Sutskever, Hinton + Voyager]
just a few hours ago a host of AI
industry leaders experts and academics
put out this 22-word statement on making
AI safety a global priority the
so-called statement on AI risk brought
together for the first time all t... |
9e2a2c1a-4066-4967-aec5-0e95b62e0840 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's your visual experience when reading technical material?
In my never-ending quest to understand the best way to read a textbook, I'm back to where I started - exploring the importance of visual imagination. When you read technical material, such as science or math, or posts on rationality, to what degree do you ... |
eff87bad-da9e-4c3d-8939-b5ce4d63cc0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Persistent Idealism
When I talk to people about earning to give, it's common to hear worries about "backsliding". Yes, you say you're going to go make a lot of money and donate it, but once you're surrounded by rich coworkers spending heavily on cars, clothes, and nights out, will you follow through? Working at a gree... |
222674ac-968f-41b8-97c6-29e87b6182d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Fermi Estimates Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Fermi Estimates Meetup
WHEN: 08 December 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
By the power of the meetup topics list, we'll be meeting to do fermi estimates. I'll bring some... |
443c491d-f9af-462b-a3e0-6afe9941aa84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A model of UDT without proof limits
This post requires some knowledge of decision theory math. Part of the credit goes to Vladimir Nesov.
Let the universe be a computer program U that returns a utility value, and the agent is a subprogram A within U that knows the source code of both A and U. (The same setting was us... |
4d498efa-530c-4c6c-b7d5-14daa41978d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How LLMs are and are not myopic
*Thanks to janus, Nicholas Kees Dupuis, and Robert Kralisch for reviewing this post and providing helpful feedback. Some of the experiments mentioned were performed while at Conjecture.*
**TLDR: The training goal for LLMs like GPT is not cognitively-myopic (because they think about the... |
4b092dde-1f58-4119-99fe-e869b28565e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training
I'm not going to add a bunch of commentary here on top of what we've already put out, since we've put a lot of effort into the paper itself, and I'd mostly just recommend reading it directly, especially since there are a lot of subtle results... |
979f6d9b-d8cb-4c35-a682-ba246343e458 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI and Non-Existence.
Imagine 2 valleys. One valley leads to billions and billions of years of extreme joy, while the other valley leads to billions and billions of years of extreme suffering. A superintelligence comes to you and tells you that there is a 98% chance that you will end up in the valley of joy for billi... |
8f0c34d4-49c8-4899-9f3f-9b76d7ea9aac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Believing others' priors
Meet the Bayesians
In one way of looking at Bayesian reasoners, there are a bunch of possible worlds and a bunch of people, who start out with some guesses about what possible world we're in. Everyone knows everyone else's initial guesses. As evidence comes in, agents change their guesses abou... |
5ea4e95d-1ed2-4be1-86d4-f5e9b8556fda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Settled questions in philosophy
Philosophy is notorious for not answering the questions it tackles. Plato posed most of the central questions more than two millennia ago, and philosophers still haven't come to much consensus about them. Or at least, whenever philosophical questions begin to admit of answers, we start ... |
04491310-60e7-4f68-9211-16ce04ebd351 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A transparency and interpretability tech tree
Thanks to Chris Olah, Neel Nanda, Kate Woolverton, Richard Ngo, Buck Shlegeris, Daniel Kokotajlo, Kyle McDonell, Laria Reynolds, Eliezer Yudkowksy, Mark Xu, and James Lucassen for useful comments, conversations, and feedback that informed this post.
The more I have though... |
4a64b724-4b1b-473d-afbe-bab17fb27d77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Modeling Risks From Learned Optimization
*This post, which deals with how risks from learned optimization and inner alignment can be understood, is part 5 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. We are building a model to understand debates around e... |
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