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True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/525
The question will close yes if Moody’s cuts its credit rating to Ba1, Fitch cuts its rating to BB+, or S&P cuts its rating to BB+ on any Illinois state general obligation bonds. Despite passing a budget, the state of Illinois remains at risk of having its credit downgraded to junk status (<a href = "http://www.marketw...
2018-01-08
Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P cut the State of Illinois’ credit rating to junk status?
2017-07-11
[["2017-07-11", 0.8], ["2017-07-11", 0.495], ["2017-07-11", 0.375], ["2017-07-11", 0.75], ["2017-07-12", 0.725], ["2017-07-12", 0.595], ["2017-07-12", 0.6], ["2017-07-12", 0.6], ["2017-07-12", 0.595], ["2017-07-13", 0.56], ["2017-07-13", 0.52], ["2017-07-13", 0.385], ["2017-07-13", 0.255], ["2017-07-14", 0.25], ["2017-...
["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica_coalition_(politics", "http://www.rrstar.com/news/20170918/rauner-to-illinois-lawmakers-help-me-make-more-cuts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition#Germany", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-amazon-st-louis-met-0919-20170918-story.htm...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/628
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.125], ["2017-09-29", 0.125], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.025], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.03], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", ...
["https://orientalreview.org/2017/12/29/2018-outlook-africa/", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article180277526.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-violence/at-least-five-killed-as-police-fire-at-protest-in-ethiopia-idUSKBN1CV1P1", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/they-started-...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/911
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.075], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.265], ["2018-04-04", 0.215], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-0...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/918
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.6], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05"...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-04-29
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/378
The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (<a href = "http://unfccc.int/tools_xml/country_US.html" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>, <a href = "http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future...
2017-05-01
Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
2017-01-06
[["2017-01-06", 0.535], ["2017-01-06", 0.05], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.1], ["2017-01-06", 0.125], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.115], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-coal-idUSKBN1762YY", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-growth-europe-idUSKBN17A0GA", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/donald-trump-climate-change-executive-order/", "http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3007567/vatican-urges-trump-to-rethink-climate-policy-a...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/824
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?
2017-12-28
[["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.475], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.575], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.5...
["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/tens-thousands-killed-south-sudan-war-160303054110110.html", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/south-sudan", "https://www.acleddata.com/data/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/war-hit-children-sudan-risk-imminent-death-180119153838240.html"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-04-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/127
In late September 2015, the Colombian government and FARC publicly pledged to conclude a peace deal within six months (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21666233-ultimatum-unblocks-groundbreaking-agreement-justice-big-leap-towards-peace-colombia" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "ht...
2016-05-02
Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
2016-02-02
[["2016-02-02", 0.24], ["2016-02-02", 0.315], ["2016-02-02", 0.345], ["2016-02-03", 0.35], ["2016-02-03", 0.4], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-03", 0.425], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-03", 0.45], ["2016-02-04", 0.45], ["2016-02-04", 0.45], ["2016-02-04", 0.51], ["2016-02...
["http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/farc-peace-talks-in-cuba-miss-deadline-for-final-deal", "http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-thousands-protest-across-colombia-against-government-2197560", "http://colombiareports.com/one-farcs-feared-commanders-joins-peace-talks-havana/", "https://larswericson.wordpress....
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/519
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.055], ["2017-07-01", 0.06], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.02], ["2017-07-02", 0.15], ["2017-07-02", 0.15], ["2017-07-03", 0.02], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-04", 0.015], ["2017-0...
["https://www.acleddata.com/data/"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-10-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/280
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 October 2016. There were 506,000 tourist arrivals in October of 2016 (<a href = "http://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/_layouts/xlviewer.aspx?id=/MonthlyStatisticaclBulletinDL/Real237.xlsx&DefaultItemOpen=1"target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</...
2017-02-13
Will more than 1 million tourists visit Egypt in October 2016?
2016-09-13
[["2016-09-13", 0.3], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-13", 0.01], ["2016-09-13", 0.01], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-13", 0.025], ["2016-09-13", 0.025], ["2016-09-13", 0.05], ["2016-09-13", 0.05], ["2016-09-13", 0.01], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-13", 0.0], ["2016-09-14", 0...
["http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/egypt-tourism-new-approach-pyramids-private-sector.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/how-sharm-el-sheikh-struggled-to-recover-after-the-russian-plane-bombing-a7327651.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/egypt-tourism-new-approach-py...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-07
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/461
The third economic adjustment programme for Greece started in August 2015 (<a href = "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/financial-assistance-eurozone-members/greece-programme/"target="_blank">The European Council</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, with the release of the third tranche currently un...
2017-07-18
Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece?
2017-04-04
[["2017-04-04", 0.45], ["2017-04-04", 0.7], ["2017-04-04", 0.725], ["2017-04-04", 0.75], ["2017-04-04", 0.87], ["2017-04-04", 0.82], ["2017-04-04", 0.87], ["2017-04-04", 0.82], ["2017-04-04", 0.825], ["2017-04-04", 0.85], ["2017-04-05", 0.84], ["2017-04-05", 0.855], ["2017-04-05", 0.88], ["2017-04-05", 0.89], ["2017-04...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-eu-idUSKBN19430R", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-gdp-idUSKCN18B14M", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/imf-chief-urges-eurozone-to-back-greece-debt-relief-8841610", "http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/02/pr17145-statement-by-t...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-02-20
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/80
<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK's membership in the EU before the end of 2017 (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10452" target="_blank">The World in 201...
2016-02-22
Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?
2015-11-17
[["2015-11-17", 0.33], ["2015-11-17", 0.2], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.16], ["2015-11-18", 0.17], ["2015-11-18", 0.16], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.16], ["2015-11-19", 0.17], ["2015-11-19", 0.17], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-20...
["http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35621079", "http://www.theage.com.au/world/david-cameron-secures-eu-deal-but-cabinet-colleague-set-to-abandon-the-pm-20160220-gmz3h2.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/europe/british-prime-minister-announces-eu-referendum-date.html", "http://theage.com.au/world/david-c...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-11-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/290
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Richard Burr won his bid for reelection on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#ques...
2016-11-18
Will Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) be re-elected this November?
2016-09-30
[["2016-09-30", 0.65], ["2016-09-30", 1.0], ["2016-09-30", 0.775], ["2016-09-30", 0.475], ["2016-09-30", 0.425], ["2016-09-30", 0.45], ["2016-09-30", 0.48], ["2016-09-30", 0.48], ["2016-09-30", 0.505], ["2016-09-30", 0.505], ["2016-09-30", 0.53], ["2016-09-30", 0.48], ["2016-10-01", 0.45], ["2016-10-01", 0.48], ["2016-...
["http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/north-carolina-richard-burr-competitive", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/incumbent-senator-ahead-nc-poll", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/20...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2019-08-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1056
Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face greater scrutiny (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-shareholders/at-facebook-public-funds-join-push-to-remove-zuckerberg-as-chairman-idUSKCN1MR2GY" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a hr...
2019-08-01
Before 1 August 2019, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?
2018-12-07
[["2018-12-07", 0.02], ["2018-12-08", 0.05], ["2018-12-08", 0.25], ["2018-12-09", 0.185], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-10", 0.3], ["2018-12-11", 0.14], ["2018-12-12", 0.125], ["2018-12-13", 0.095], ["2018-12-13", 0.09], ["2018-12-13", 0.11], ["2018-12-14", 0.15], ["2018-12-14", 0.15], ["2018-12-15", 0.11], ["2018-12-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1015
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.07], ["2018-09-30", 0.065], ["2018-09-30", 0.07], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-03", 0.08], ["2018-10-04", 0.08], ["2018-10-05", 0.08], ["2018-10-05", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.075], ["2018-10...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/978
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.75], ["2018-06-27", 0.77], ["2018-06-27", 0.385], ["2018-06-27", 0.425], ["2018-06-28", 0.43], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-29", 0.425], ["2018-06-29", 0.29], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-07-01", 0.15], ["2018...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/450
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.35], ["2017-03-31", 0.08], ["2017-03-31", 0.115], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-03-31", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0....
["https://www.laenderdaten.info/Afrika/Burundi/terrorismus.php"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/430
The six party talks are a series of negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</...
2017-10-04
Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 October 2017?
2017-03-07
[["2017-03-07", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.0], ["2017-03-09", 0.01], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-10", 0.0], ["2017-03-10", 0.05], ["2017-03-10", 0.02], ["2017-03-10", 0.015], ["2017-...
["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/us/politics/trump-north-korea-extortion-money.html?emc=edit_mbae_20170831&amp;nl=&amp;nlid=77825025&amp;te=1&amp;_r=0", "http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-iran-may-have-helped-rogue-state-britain-fears/news-story/cc3d021f19e000f0da56fa31e607df9...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1089
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war-fast-facts/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256" target="_blank">BBC</a>). <sub>Conf...
2020-01-01
Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020?
2019-01-04
[["2019-01-05", 0.0], ["2019-01-05", 0.06], ["2019-01-05", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.01], ["2019-01-06", 0.04], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.1], ["2019-01-06", 0.1], ["2019-01-06", 0.075], ["2019-01-06", 0.085], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/263
The European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) was proposed by the European Commission in November 2014 as part of a larger plan to establish a banking union (<a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6152_en.htm?locale=en, http://ec.europa.eu/finance/general-policy/banking-union/index_en.htm" target="_blank">E...
2017-04-03
Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?
2016-08-16
[["2016-08-16", 0.2], ["2016-08-16", 0.18], ["2016-08-16", 0.2], ["2016-08-16", 0.125], ["2016-08-17", 0.05], ["2016-08-17", 0.05], ["2016-08-17", 0.085], ["2016-08-17", 0.08], ["2016-08-17", 0.1], ["2016-08-18", 0.115], ["2016-08-18", 0.115], ["2016-08-18", 0.25], ["2016-08-18", 0.355], ["2016-08-19", 0.355], ["2016-0...
["http://www.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/ficheprocedure.do?lang=&amp;reference=2015/0270(COD", "http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-deeper-and-fairer-economic-and-monetary-union/file-european-deposit-insurance-scheme-(edis", "http://www.regulationtomorrow.com/eu/progress-report-on-edis-regulation-a...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-02-03
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1028
Kanye West has called for a meeting between President Trump and NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick (<a href = "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kanye-west-donald-trump-colin-kaepernick-meet-talk/story?id=58232794"target="_blank">ABC</a>). Kaepernick initiated the protest movement of not standing during the national anthem...
2019-02-05
Will President Trump and Colin Kaepernick meet face-to-face before Super Bowl LIII?
2018-10-12
[["2018-10-12", 0.0], ["2018-10-12", 0.0], ["2018-10-12", 0.0], ["2018-10-12", 0.075], ["2018-10-12", 0.1], ["2018-10-13", 0.025], ["2018-10-13", 0.0], ["2018-10-13", 0.0], ["2018-10-13", 0.01], ["2018-10-13", 0.01], ["2018-10-13", 0.01], ["2018-10-14", 0.005], ["2018-10-14", 0.01], ["2018-10-14", 0.005], ["2018-10-14"...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/662
In the wake of the <a href = "http://www.abc15.com/news/national/police-confirm-reports-of-active-shooter-in-las-vegas"target="_blank">mass shooting</a> in Las Vegas on 1 October, the role played by so-called <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/04/us/bump-stock-las-vegas-gun.html"target="_blank">'bum...
2018-07-10
Before 1 July 2018, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of 'bump stocks'?
2017-10-20
[["2017-10-20", 0.435], ["2017-10-20", 0.65], ["2017-10-20", 0.52], ["2017-10-20", 0.45], ["2017-10-20", 0.625], ["2017-10-21", 0.6], ["2017-10-21", 0.61], ["2017-10-21", 0.65], ["2017-10-21", 0.245], ["2017-10-22", 0.19], ["2017-10-22", 0.195], ["2017-10-22", 0.19], ["2017-10-22", 0.14], ["2017-10-23", 0.21], ["2017-1...
["https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/20/trump-orders-bump-stock-ban-but-indicates-no-stronger-action-on-gun-control?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-ban-bump-stocks-atf-53276472", "https://goo.gl/NU7ibS", "https://www.theonion.com/new-school-shooter-drill-includes-pract...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-03-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95
After November's parliamentary elections, the opposition National League for Democracy is on track to form the next government once parliament is seated in January 2016, but longstanding tensions between the NLD and Myanmar's military leaders could derail the process (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/14/world/...
2016-03-30
Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
2015-12-08
[["2015-12-08", 0.45], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.775], ["2015-12-08", 0.71], ["2015-12-08", 0.71], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.75], ["2015-12-09", 0.77], ["2015-12-09", 0.8], ["2015-12-09", 0.8], ["2015-12-09"...
["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35923083", "http://www.irrawaddy.com/burma/htin-kyaw-tipped-as-nld-presidential-nominee.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5q77MQzU2Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/02/myanmar-parliament-advances-date-for-nominating-president.htm...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-11-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/129
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page. Ethiopia is one of the most repressive regimes in the world. In December 2015, security forces killed over 140 peopl...
2017-03-30
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
2016-02-02
[["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-02", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.25], ["2016-02-03", 0.235], ["2016-02-03", 0.235], ["2016-02-03", 0.2], ["2016-02-03", 0.17], ["2016-02-...
["https://www.earlywarningproject.org/2016/06/06/trends-over-time-in-state-led-mass-killing-through-2015", "http://qz.com/757824/how-the-ethiopia-protests-were-stifled-by-a-coordinated-internet-shutdown/", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/08/ethiopia-independent-inquiry-needed-irreecha", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/617
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 0.01], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.035], ["2017-09-30", 0.11], ["2017-09-30", 0.11], ["2017-10-01", 0.01], ["2017-10-01", 0.01], ["2017-10-01", 0.385], ["2017-10-01", 0.02], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.4], ["2017-10-02", 0.075], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-08-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/197
This question was closed as "a) Yes." On 31 August 2016, Brazil's Senate voted to remove Dilma Rouseff from office, and Michel Temer was sworn in as the new President later that day (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeached-removed-president.html" target="_blank">NY Time...
2016-09-01
Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?
2016-05-10
[["2016-05-10", 0.675], ["2016-05-10", 0.91], ["2016-05-10", 0.86], ["2016-05-10", 0.87], ["2016-05-10", 0.85], ["2016-05-10", 0.8], ["2016-05-10", 0.85], ["2016-05-10", 0.8], ["2016-05-10", 0.875], ["2016-05-11", 0.985], ["2016-05-11", 0.99], ["2016-05-11", 0.97], ["2016-05-11", 0.935], ["2016-05-11", 0.95], ["2016-05...
["http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/25/491330705/beginning-of-the-end-impeachment-trial-opens-for-brazils-dilma-rousseff", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/28/rousseff-prepares-to-testify-at-brazil-impeachment-hearing", "http://g1.globo.com/politica/processo-de-impeachment-de-dilma/noticia/2016/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/522
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.055], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-02", 0.075], ["2017-07-02", 0.125], ["2017-07-02", 0.125], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.025], ["2017-07-...
["https://www.ushmm.org/confront-genocide/cases/zimbabwe", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/violence-flares-in-zimbabwe-as-mugabe-readies-re-election-bid"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/442
During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (<A HREF = "http://www.newsweek.com/brexit-inspires-unthinkable-united-ireland-477224"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election,...
2018-07-02
Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?
2017-03-21
[["2017-03-21", 0.275], ["2017-03-21", 0.08], ["2017-03-21", 0.02], ["2017-03-22", 0.06], ["2017-03-22", 0.035], ["2017-03-22", 0.02], ["2017-03-23", 0.02], ["2017-03-24", 0.03], ["2017-03-24", 0.065], ["2017-03-25", 0.085], ["2017-03-25", 0.085], ["2017-03-25", 0.045], ["2017-03-26", 0.04], ["2017-03-26", 0.04], ["201...
["https://www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-releases/press-release-archive/2017/november/statement-by-minister-coveney-on-northern-ireland/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1AL0R1", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/21/mps-accuse-kate-hoey-of-putting-brexit-before-northern-ireland-peace"...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/982
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.11], ["2018-06-27", 0.065], ["2018-06-27", 0.12], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.11], ["2018-07-02", 0.11], ["2018-07-02...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/770
China has proposed investing in web giants Tencent Holdings Ltd, Weibo Corp, and Youku Tudou, a platform owned by Alibaba Group Holding (<a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pushes-for-a-direct-hand-in-chinas-big-tech-firms-1507758314"target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/ar...
2018-01-04
Before 1 January 2018, will a Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.65], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.275], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.175], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.175], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-06-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1026
Terance Gamble was convicted of being a felon in possession of a firearm by both the State of Alabama and the federal government (<a href="http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/17-646-PWC.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>).&nbsp;He appealed his federal conviction, arguing that being prosecuted for the ...
2019-06-18
In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court overrule the "separate sovereign" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?
2018-10-12
[["2018-10-12", 0.85], ["2018-10-12", 0.0], ["2018-10-12", 0.0], ["2018-10-12", 0.425], ["2018-10-13", 0.7], ["2018-10-13", 0.55], ["2018-10-13", 0.05], ["2018-10-13", 0.05], ["2018-10-14", 0.035], ["2018-10-14", 0.035], ["2018-10-14", 0.275], ["2018-10-14", 0.5], ["2018-10-14", 0.5], ["2018-10-14", 0.67], ["2018-10-15...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-09-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/548
The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href = "http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html"target="_blank">PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Month, Start Day, Start Year) between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive, for which 'Event Location:...
2017-10-10
Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?
2017-08-07
[["2017-08-09", 0.28], ["2017-08-09", 0.65], ["2017-08-09", 0.4], ["2017-08-09", 0.2], ["2017-08-09", 0.5], ["2017-08-09", 0.25], ["2017-08-09", 0.2], ["2017-08-09", 0.4], ["2017-08-09", 0.16], ["2017-08-09", 0.11], ["2017-08-09", 0.12], ["2017-08-09", 0.15], ["2017-08-09", 0.125], ["2017-08-09", 0.125], ["2017-08-09",...
["http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-mp-prays-flashpoint-jerusalem-holy-site-1638187306", "https://www.slideshare.net/milouness/leading-above-mediocre-thinking", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/24/middleeast/israeli-embassy-jordan/index.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-prime-minister...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-09-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44
This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 9 September 2016 with an end date of 8 September 2016. On 8 September 2016, the first game of the 2016 NFL regular season was held between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. Goodell's handling of "deflategate" has some calling for his ouster (<a href = "ht...
2016-09-09
Will Roger Goodell be commissioner of the NFL at the start of the 2016 regular season?
2015-09-21
[["2015-09-21", 0.8], ["2015-09-21", 0.9], ["2015-09-22", 0.85], ["2015-09-22", 0.8], ["2015-09-22", 0.85], ["2015-09-22", 0.8], ["2015-09-22", 0.85], ["2015-09-22", 0.9], ["2015-09-23", 0.9], ["2015-09-23", 0.9], ["2015-09-23", 0.9], ["2015-09-23", 0.9], ["2015-09-24", 0.9], ["2015-09-24", 0.9], ["2015-09-25", 0.9], [...
["http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/07/28/deflategate-roger-goodell-new-england-patriots-tom-brady", "http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/article63176942.html", "http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/18/nfl-still-might-disclose-2015-psi-summaries/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_NFL_C...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
False
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/513
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
None
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-03", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-04", 0.0], ["2017-07-05", 0.005...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
Not resolved.
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1013
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.07], ["2018-09-30", 0.065], ["2018-09-30", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-01", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.035], ["2018-10-01", 0.035], ["2018-10-03", 0.035], ["2018-10-03", 0.01], ["2018-10-04", 0.01], ["2018-10-05", 0.01], ["2018-10-06", 0.01], ["2018-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
False
2016-08-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/262
This question was voided on 31 August 2016 due to uncertainty over how the question would resolve if a low turnout invalidated the vote. <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/273" target="_blank">A new question</a> has been launched that explicitly addresses the turn out issue. A referendum scheduled for 2 Octo...
None
In the upcoming Hungarian referendum, will a majority vote "No," thereby rejecting the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation in Hungary?
2016-08-16
[["2016-08-16", 0.4], ["2016-08-16", 0.8], ["2016-08-16", 0.9], ["2016-08-16", 0.94], ["2016-08-16", 0.89], ["2016-08-16", 0.91], ["2016-08-16", 0.88], ["2016-08-16", 0.88], ["2016-08-16", 0.85], ["2016-08-16", 0.895], ["2016-08-16", 0.925], ["2016-08-16", 1.0], ["2016-08-16", 1.0], ["2016-08-16", 1.0], ["2016-08-16", ...
["http://www.origo.hu/itthon/20160517-szazadveg-felmeres-72-szazalek-venne-reszt-kvota-nepszavazason.html", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3684113/How-DARE-Brussels-tell-migrants-live-country-Hungary-vote-no-Brexit-inspired-referendum-EU-demands-1-294-refugees-pay-300million-fine-instead.html", "https://en.wi...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
Not resolved.
True
2018-09-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/842
For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see: <a href = "http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm"target="_blank">U.S Department of State</a>. Accusations of violations by both sides puts the future of the INF Treaty in question (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/escalation-threat-high...
2018-10-03
Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
2018-01-10
[["2018-01-10", 0.0], ["2018-01-10", 0.25], ["2018-01-10", 0.08], ["2018-01-10", 0.2], ["2018-01-11", 0.235], ["2018-01-11", 0.25], ["2018-01-11", 0.35], ["2018-01-11", 0.325], ["2018-01-11", 0.2], ["2018-01-11", 0.125], ["2018-01-11", 0.1], ["2018-01-11", 0.15], ["2018-01-11", 0.075], ["2018-01-11", 0.015], ["2018-01-...
["http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/06/vladimir-putin-isnt-as-russian-as-he-seems/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/13/international/bush-pulls-out-of-abm-treaty-putin-calls-move-a-mistake.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/ef93af1e-0a8d-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09", "https://www.mda.mil/about/mission.html", "https://www.mi...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270
Egypt's economy has sputtered since 2011 despite billions of dollars in aid from neighboring states; the promise of a three-year, $12-billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund -- and the reforms that loan would require -- are spurring optimism among some observers and pessimism among others (<a href="ht...
2020-01-14
Will Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?
2016-08-31
[["2016-08-31", 0.115], ["2016-08-31", 0.04], ["2016-08-31", 0.115], ["2016-08-31", 0.1], ["2016-08-31", 0.08], ["2016-08-31", 0.08], ["2016-09-01", 0.1], ["2016-09-01", 0.09], ["2016-09-01", 0.065], ["2016-09-01", 0.065], ["2016-09-01", 0.05], ["2016-09-01", 0.04], ["2016-09-02", 0.04], ["2016-09-02", 0.05], ["2016-09...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-cenbank-rates-idUSKBN18H113", "http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/egypt-population/", "http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/38111460208801133/Egypt-MEM.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315291", "http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/180351/Business/E...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/480
Twitter has been the target of acquisition rumors with possible suitors including Google and Salesforce (<a href = "https://www.recode.net/2016/9/14/12876560/twitter-acquisition-options-google-facebook-apple"target="_blank">Redcode</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/01/twitter-acquisition-early-investor-chris-...
2018-01-16
Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?
2017-05-09
[["2017-05-09", 0.56], ["2017-05-09", 0.65], ["2017-05-10", 0.6], ["2017-05-10", 0.5], ["2017-05-10", 0.39], ["2017-05-10", 0.28], ["2017-05-10", 0.27], ["2017-05-11", 0.185], ["2017-05-11", 0.1], ["2017-05-11", 0.07], ["2017-05-11", 0.06], ["2017-05-11", 0.09], ["2017-05-12", 0.1], ["2017-05-12", 0.15], ["2017-05-12",...
["https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=TWTR:NYQ", "https://www.google.com/search?q=twitter+acquisition&amp;source=lnt&amp;tbs=qdr:w&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjfzKum1YvWAhVozIMKHZ_jAbYQpwUIIA&amp;biw=1920&amp;bih=912", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/realdonaldtrump", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ar...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-02-21
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/889
Nathan Chen was the only undefeated individual skater in the world this season in individual competition and will compete for an individual medal on 16-17 February (<a href = "https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/figure-skating/daily-schedule.htm"target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>). He "bombed in his Olympi...
2018-02-26
Will Nathan Chen win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?
2018-02-15
[["2018-02-15", 0.55], ["2018-02-15", 0.6], ["2018-02-15", 0.425], ["2018-02-16", 0.275], ["2018-02-16", 0.15], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.0], ["2018-02-16", 0.0], ["2018-02-16", 0.005], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.065], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-...
["https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/sports/olympics/olympics-nathan-chen-quads.html", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-17/chens-quad-magic-falls-short-as-hanyu-takes-skating-gold/9458102"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-02-10
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/39
This question asks about win probability, not vote share! For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.co...
2016-02-10
Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?
2015-09-21
[["2015-09-22", 0.34], ["2015-09-22", 0.34], ["2015-09-22", 0.35], ["2015-09-23", 0.35], ["2015-09-24", 0.35], ["2015-09-24", 0.33], ["2015-09-25", 0.315], ["2015-09-25", 0.3], ["2015-09-26", 0.3], ["2015-09-26", 0.3], ["2015-09-27", 0.3], ["2015-09-27", 0.3], ["2015-09-27", 0.25], ["2015-09-28", 0.28], ["2015-09-29", ...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/487
A crucial hypothesis in physics, supersymmetry posits that each of the known fundamental particles has a partner particle, known as a "sparticle." The Large Hadron Collider at CERN, Europe's particle physics laboratory, has yet to discover evidence of sparticles (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12781/so-lo...
2017-10-04
Before 1 October 2017, will it be announced that the Large Hadron Collider has found evidence of "sparticles?"
2017-05-16
[["2017-05-16", 0.01], ["2017-05-16", 0.05], ["2017-05-16", 0.05], ["2017-05-16", 0.065], ["2017-05-17", 0.05], ["2017-05-17", 0.03], ["2017-05-17", 0.05], ["2017-05-17", 0.05], ["2017-05-17", 0.05], ["2017-05-18", 0.05], ["2017-05-18", 0.05], ["2017-05-18", 0.04], ["2017-05-18", 0.05], ["2017-05-18", 0.035], ["2017-05...
["https://www.economist.com/news/china/21705381-geological-evidence-has-boosted-founding-myth-and-spurred-controversy-return-xia", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/522781", "http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble", "https://www.blo...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-06-23
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149
Resolved 6/24/16: The majority of British voters elected to leave the EU (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0Z902K" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacifi...
2016-06-24
Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
2016-03-01
[["2016-03-01", 0.725], ["2016-03-01", 0.65], ["2016-03-01", 0.79], ["2016-03-01", 0.75], ["2016-03-01", 0.75], ["2016-03-01", 0.8], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.755], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.76], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-...
["http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/janta-ka-budget-manish-sisodia-address-the-public-in-patparganj-constituency/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union", "http://fortune.com/2016/04/04/eu-multinationals-tax-havens/", "https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/3858-hsbc-and-u...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-09-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/42
Russia has undertaken a military buildup in Syria in recent weeks, leading some to worry that Russia will intervene directly in the conflict (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive-idUSKCN0R91H720150909 , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html , h...
2015-09-30
Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?
2015-09-21
[["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.875], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], ["2015-09-21", 0.99], ["2015-09-21", 0.99], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/us-mideast-crisis-russia-airstrikes-idUSKCN0RO01320150924", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russia-launches-first-airstrikes-against-targets-in-syria-says-us", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-mideast-crisis-putin-usa-idUSKCN0RR0H820150928", "http:/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-10-14
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/202
This question was closed as "No." On 14 October 2016, the Antonio Guterres was officially appointed as the next UN secretary-general (<a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55285#.WAEKtWUydFIhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-37648265" target="_blank">UN</a>). UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is scheduled...
2016-10-14
Will a woman be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?
2016-05-17
[["2016-05-17", 0.875], ["2016-05-17", 0.67], ["2016-05-17", 0.705], ["2016-05-17", 0.82], ["2016-05-17", 0.745], ["2016-05-17", 0.67], ["2016-05-17", 0.71], ["2016-05-18", 0.7], ["2016-05-18", 0.71], ["2016-05-18", 0.75], ["2016-05-18", 0.7], ["2016-05-18", 0.71], ["2016-05-18", 0.72], ["2016-05-18", 0.72], ["2016-05-...
["http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/05/496724643/meet-the-man-tapped-to-become-the-next-u-n-secretary-general", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/05/world/un-secretary-general-antonio-guterres/", "http://www.rferl.org/a/russian-envoy-churkin-says-next-un-secretary-general-should-east-european-woman-georgieva/280...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/446
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.09], ["2017-03-31", 0.07], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-04-01", 0.25], ["2017-04-02", 0.85], ["2017-04-02", 0.59], ["2017-04-02", 0.59], ["2017-04-03", 0.24], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05",...
["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/02/24/yemen-us-should-investigate-civilian-deaths-raid"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/464
In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/471251/icode/"target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"ta...
2018-01-02
Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017?
2017-04-11
[["2017-04-11", 0.9], ["2017-04-11", 0.945], ["2017-04-12", 0.95], ["2017-04-12", 0.9], ["2017-04-12", 0.91], ["2017-04-12", 0.935], ["2017-04-13", 0.95], ["2017-04-14", 0.92], ["2017-04-14", 0.98], ["2017-04-14", 0.965], ["2017-04-14", 0.965], ["2017-04-15", 0.95], ["2017-04-15", 0.95], ["2017-04-16", 0.925], ["2017-0...
["https://www.unicef.org/about/execboard/index_48248.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-security/suicide-bombers-kill-10-in-nigerias-maiduguri-emergency-official-idUSKBN1DF2UA?il=0", "http://www.fews.net/global/alert/november-28-2017", "http://executiveboard.wfp.org/wfp-calendar", "http://intelligencebri...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/839
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
2017-12-28
[["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.15], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.15], ["2017-12-30", 0.125], ["2017-12-30",...
["http://www.resolvenet.org/research/bangladesh-brink-mapping-evolving-social-geography-political-violence", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/bangladeshs-new-generation-of-militants/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/bangladesh/mapping-bangladesh-s-political-crisis", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1388124/bang...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1053
After multiple ICBM launches in 2017, North Korea's missile program has been comparatively quiet throughout 2018 (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/06/asia/north-korea-missile-tests-2017-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blan...
2020-01-01
Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?
2018-12-07
[["2018-12-07", 0.25], ["2018-12-07", 0.125], ["2018-12-07", 0.55], ["2018-12-07", 0.15], ["2018-12-07", 0.16], ["2018-12-08", 0.185], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-08", 0.25], ["2018-12-08", 0.25], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-08", 0.19], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.11], ["2018-12-10"...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/448
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.34], ["2017-03-31", 0.295], ["2017-03-31", 0.625], ["2017-03-31", 0.875], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.75], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.35], ["2017-04-01", 0.5], ["2017-04-01", 0.5], ["2017-04-01", 0.5], ["2017-04-01", 0.44], ["2017-04-...
["http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483", "http://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/06/usaid-wades-into-fulani-herdsmenfarmer-conflicts-in-nigeria/", "https://issafrica.org/iss-today/less-armed-conflict-but-more-political-violence-in-africa", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ACLED_Confli...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1081
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2020-03-18
Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
2018-12-28
[["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.015], ["2018-12-29", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.015], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.005], ["2019-01-03", 0.01], ["2019-01-03", 0.01], ["2019-01-03", 0.005], ["2019-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-09-21
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/28
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stipulates that the IAEA will investigate possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including research conducted at the Parchin military complex. Many argue that in-person, on-site inspections are vital and that video inspections or involvement in post-inspection ana...
2015-09-28
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?
2015-09-14
[["2015-09-14", 0.05], ["2015-09-14", 0.025], ["2015-09-14", 0.01], ["2015-09-14", 0.03], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.075], ["2015-09-15", 0.1], ["2015-09-15", 0.125], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.2], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.325], ["2015-0...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0RL0Z020150921", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-statement-director-generals-visit-iran", "http://www.israelpolicyforum.org/news/ipf-briefing-gary-samore", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/20/world/middleeast/ap-iran-nuclear-q...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/630
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.25], ["2017-09-30", 0.375], ["2017-09-30", 0.25], ["2017-10-01", 0.075], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.15], ["2017-10-02", 0.3], ["2017-10-02", 0.25], ["2017-10-02", 0.36], ["2017-10-02", 0.16], ["2017-10-03", 0.15], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.04], ["2017-10-0...
["https://www.ushmm.org/confront-genocide/genocide-prevention-blog/central-african-republic-again-at-risk-for-mass-atrocities", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/chief-draws-attention-car-crisis-171019073644591.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/591715", "http://www.globalr2p.org/publications/569", "...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1080
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2020-03-18
Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
2018-12-28
[["2018-12-28", 0.28], ["2018-12-28", 0.265], ["2018-12-29", 0.265], ["2018-12-29", 0.27], ["2018-12-31", 0.27], ["2018-12-31", 0.26], ["2018-12-31", 0.155], ["2019-01-02", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.25], ["2019-01-02", 0.15], ["2019-01-03", 0.05], ["2019-01-03", 0.04], ["2019-01-04", 0.04], ["2019-01-04", 0.05], ["2019-0...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/452
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.04], ["2017-03-31", 0.02], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.225], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.11], ["2017-04-01", 0.16], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.075], ["2017-04...
["https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257514.htm"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-07-15
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/214
This question was closed with the answer "No" on 19 July 2016 with an end date of 15 July 2016. Mike Pence, who is now Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate, withdrew from Indiana's governor race on 15 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/" target="_bl...
2016-07-19
Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) be re-elected this November?
2016-06-03
[["2016-06-03", 0.52], ["2016-06-03", 0.55], ["2016-06-03", 0.54], ["2016-06-03", 0.545], ["2016-06-03", 0.63], ["2016-06-03", 0.56], ["2016-06-03", 0.7], ["2016-06-03", 0.675], ["2016-06-03", 0.7], ["2016-06-03", 0.705], ["2016-06-03", 0.66], ["2016-06-03", 0.66], ["2016-06-03", 0.705], ["2016-06-03", 0.75], ["2016-06...
["http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/11/gov-or-vp-indiana-s-pence-has-friday-ballot-deadline.html", "http://howeypolitics.com/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/280214", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-r...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/486
Afghanistan's war against the Taliban insurgency rages on as government forces fight to retain control of Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of the strategically important Helmand province (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2017/01/afghanistan-taliban-gate-170124113723975.html"target="_blank">Alja...
2018-04-03
Will the Taliban take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018?
2017-05-16
[["2017-05-16", 0.175], ["2017-05-16", 0.12], ["2017-05-16", 0.21], ["2017-05-17", 0.3], ["2017-05-17", 0.19], ["2017-05-18", 0.25], ["2017-05-18", 0.175], ["2017-05-20", 0.14], ["2017-05-20", 0.12], ["2017-05-20", 0.11], ["2017-05-21", 0.12], ["2017-05-21", 0.11], ["2017-05-21", 0.25], ["2017-05-22", 0.16], ["2017-05-...
["https://sofrep.com/author/sam-faddis/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/06/06/seal-team-6-the-cia-and-the-secret-history-of-u-s-kill-missions/?utm_term=.56b369b33410", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/afghanistan-quagmire-leaves-u-s-no-good-options", "https://www.gjopen.com/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/173
This question resolved on 30 June 2016: While talks are progressing, no announcement has been made (<a href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/06/25/0301000000AEN20160625000400315.html" target="_blank">Yonhap News Agency</a>) South Korea and the US began high level talks on deployment of THAAD in the wak...
2016-07-05
Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?
2016-04-05
[["2016-04-05", 0.825], ["2016-04-05", 0.25], ["2016-04-05", 0.205], ["2016-04-05", 0.28], ["2016-04-05", 0.28], ["2016-04-05", 0.28], ["2016-04-05", 0.27], ["2016-04-06", 0.29], ["2016-04-06", 0.27], ["2016-04-06", 0.235], ["2016-04-06", 0.235], ["2016-04-06", 0.275], ["2016-04-06", 0.225], ["2016-04-06", 0.2], ["2016...
["http://38north.org/2016/06/jschilling062316/", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/06/205_207826.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36593321", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/north-koreas-musudan-missile-test-actually-succeeded-what-now/", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/06/25/030...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294
In 2011, Russia began allowing Turkish citizens to enter its territory without visas for a period of up to 30 days (<a href="http://tass.ru/en/world/848154" target="_blank">TASS Russian News Agency</a>). Russia suspended that arrangement in November 2015 after Turkish forces downed a Russian military jet (<a href="http...
2017-07-06
Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?
2016-10-04
[["2016-10-04", 0.65], ["2016-10-04", 0.65], ["2016-10-04", 0.38], ["2016-10-05", 0.35], ["2016-10-05", 0.25], ["2016-10-05", 0.375], ["2016-10-05", 0.5], ["2016-10-06", 0.66], ["2016-10-06", 0.34], ["2016-10-06", 0.35], ["2016-10-07", 0.335], ["2016-10-08", 0.3], ["2016-10-08", 0.32], ["2016-10-08", 0.33], ["2016-10-0...
["http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1373&amp;context=clr", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/516143", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plain_meaning_rule", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24944325", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/putin-removes-restrictions-on-operations...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-05-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/367
The latest round of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ended in 2014, but diplomats and heads of state continue to press for the resumption of the peace process (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-palestinian-peace-initiatives-are-suddenly-popping-up-everywh...
2017-06-02
Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss the peace process before 1 June 2017?
2016-12-13
[["2016-12-13", 0.01], ["2016-12-13", 0.5], ["2016-12-13", 0.31], ["2016-12-13", 0.305], ["2016-12-14", 0.2], ["2016-12-14", 0.12], ["2016-12-14", 0.2], ["2016-12-14", 0.26], ["2016-12-14", 0.4], ["2016-12-15", 0.225], ["2016-12-15", 0.125], ["2016-12-15", 0.2], ["2016-12-15", 0.115], ["2016-12-15", 0.05], ["2016-12-16...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/913
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.1], ["2018-04-02", 0.55], ["2018-04-02", 0.525], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-03", 0.235], ["2018-04-03", 0.5], ["2018-04-03", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.325], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/51
The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href = "http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target = "_blank">Iran Watch</a>). Recomme...
2016-07-01
Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?
2015-10-02
[["2015-10-02", 0.4], ["2015-10-02", 0.35], ["2015-10-03", 0.3], ["2015-10-03", 0.275], ["2015-10-03", 0.3], ["2015-10-03", 0.36], ["2015-10-03", 0.3], ["2015-10-03", 0.3], ["2015-10-04", 0.3], ["2015-10-04", 0.3], ["2015-10-04", 0.3], ["2015-10-04", 0.3], ["2015-10-05", 0.28], ["2015-10-05", 0.3], ["2015-10-05", 0.3],...
["http://www.thetower.org/3542-nuclear-experts-iaea-needs-access-to-parchin-to-determine-if-iran-is-following-nuclear-deal/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/uranium-provides-new-clue-on-irans-past-nuclear-arms-work-1466380760", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-2...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-04-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/462
Turkey is scheduled to hold a contentious constitutional referendum in April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39064657"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/debating-in-whispers-opposition-fearful-ahead-of-turkish-referendum"target="_blank">The Guardian</...
2017-04-28
Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?
2017-04-04
[["2017-04-04", 1.0], ["2017-04-04", 1.0], ["2017-04-04", 0.875], ["2017-04-04", 0.875], ["2017-04-04", 0.97], ["2017-04-04", 0.94], ["2017-04-04", 0.9], ["2017-04-04", 0.725], ["2017-04-04", 0.665], ["2017-04-04", 0.575], ["2017-04-04", 0.55], ["2017-04-04", 0.6], ["2017-04-05", 0.65], ["2017-04-05", 0.65], ["2017-04-...
["https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5642/Will-Turkish-voters-pass-a-constitutional-referendum-in-April-2017#data", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-syria-idUSKBN17R2GU", "http://www.politico.eu/article/turkish-opposition-tries-to-annul-referendum-result/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21"target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.ht...
2018-01-02
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?
2017-02-14
[["2017-02-14", 0.24], ["2017-02-14", 0.35], ["2017-02-14", 0.05], ["2017-02-14", 0.05], ["2017-02-14", 0.06], ["2017-02-15", 0.09], ["2017-02-15", 0.125], ["2017-02-15", 0.09], ["2017-02-15", 0.12], ["2017-02-15", 0.095], ["2017-02-15", 0.15], ["2017-02-16", 0.2], ["2017-02-16", 0.11], ["2017-02-16", 0.15], ["2017-02-...
["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-before-1-january-2018/www.gmfus.org/blog/2017/06/02/abandoning-liberal-international-order-spheres-influence", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty", "http://www.nato.int/cps/cn/natohq/topics_110496.htm", "http://w...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-04-29
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/375
The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on...
2017-05-01
Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?
2016-12-27
[["2016-12-27", 0.6], ["2016-12-27", 0.6], ["2016-12-28", 0.24], ["2016-12-28", 0.325], ["2016-12-28", 0.275], ["2016-12-28", 0.25], ["2016-12-29", 0.225], ["2016-12-29", 0.2], ["2016-12-29", 0.27], ["2016-12-30", 0.2], ["2016-12-30", 0.2], ["2016-12-30", 0.2], ["2016-12-31", 0.25], ["2016-12-31", 0.24], ["2016-12-31",...
["http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/03/no-deal-donald", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/17/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-thursday/", "http://www.voanews.com/a/president-trump-own-party-hands-him-defeat/3781460.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/politics/President-Trump-Latest?lf-content=188682...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-11-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/615
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_bl...
2017-11-07
Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Zimbabwe in October 2017?
2017-09-20
[["2017-09-20", 0.55], ["2017-09-20", 0.3], ["2017-09-20", 0.425], ["2017-09-20", 0.35], ["2017-09-20", 0.575], ["2017-09-20", 0.2], ["2017-09-20", 0.2], ["2017-09-20", 0.15], ["2017-09-20", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.02], ["2017-09-21", 0.035], ["2017-09-21"...
["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/584821", "http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/business/government-moves-ban-street-vending/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/582607", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709110121.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709180253.html", "https://www.newsday.co.zw/2017/10/sk...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1035
<br> </br> For the past several years, the spread between yields on 2-year Treasuries and 10-year Treasuries has been closing (<a href = "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp"target="_blank">Investopedia</a>). When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield cu...
2019-01-02
Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries invert before 2019?
2018-11-01
[["2018-11-02", 0.1], ["2018-11-02", 0.38], ["2018-11-02", 0.13], ["2018-11-02", 0.14], ["2018-11-02", 0.125], ["2018-11-02", 0.15], ["2018-11-02", 0.12], ["2018-11-02", 0.1], ["2018-11-02", 0.12], ["2018-11-02", 0.075], ["2018-11-02", 0.075], ["2018-11-02", 0.01], ["2018-11-02", 0.005], ["2018-11-02", 0.05], ["2018-11...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/627
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 0.65], ["2017-09-29", 0.55], ["2017-09-29", 0.775], ["2017-09-29", 0.5], ["2017-09-30", 0.49], ["2017-09-30", 0.03], ["2017-09-30", 0.03], ["2017-10-01", 0.03], ["2017-10-01", 0.04], ["2017-10-01", 0.025], ["2017-10-01", 0.025], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.0], ["2017-10-02...
["http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/04/three-green-berets-killed-two-wounded-in-niger-ambush.html"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/465
Building dams across the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers -- whose headwaters are controlled by India but whose downstream flow is allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Water Treaty -- could increase tensions between the two countries over water (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/30/why-the-india-pakistan-war-ov...
2017-10-25
Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?
2017-04-11
[["2017-04-11", 0.73], ["2017-04-11", 0.675], ["2017-04-12", 0.6], ["2017-04-12", 0.65], ["2017-04-12", 0.71], ["2017-04-12", 0.735], ["2017-04-12", 0.75], ["2017-04-12", 0.82], ["2017-04-13", 0.885], ["2017-04-13", 0.87], ["2017-04-13", 0.815], ["2017-04-14", 0.82], ["2017-04-14", 0.82], ["2017-04-14", 0.815], ["2017-...
["https://www.geo.tv/latest/134538-New-Delhi-fast-tracks-hydro-projects-in-Indian-occupied-Kashmir-reports", "http://news.statetimes.in/div-com-reviews-progress-of-hydroelectric-power-projects/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/india-hydropower-projects-indus-river-pakistan/3768491.html", "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/wo...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221
For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>. Accusations of violations by both sides and escalating tensions between Russia and the US have generated concerns over the future of the INF tre...
2018-01-03
Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
2016-06-14
[["2016-06-14", 0.505], ["2016-06-14", 0.38], ["2016-06-15", 0.35], ["2016-06-15", 0.24], ["2016-06-15", 0.235], ["2016-06-16", 0.11], ["2016-06-16", 0.105], ["2016-06-17", 0.05], ["2016-06-17", 0.075], ["2016-06-18", 0.1], ["2016-06-19", 0.105], ["2016-06-19", 0.25], ["2016-06-19", 0.235], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016...
["https://news.usni.org/2017/09/26/report-russia-continues-use-nuclear-threats-intimidate-neighbors", "http://thebulletin.org/save-inf-treaty%E2%80%94-not-repeating-history11109", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia/russian-frigate-fires-cruise-missiles-at-islamic-state-targets-near-syrias-d...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-10-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/217
This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. Though there has been movement towards restricting capital punishment (especially for nonviolent drug offenses), Iran's Guardian Council has not yet held a vote. (<a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-iran-death-penalty-20161006-snap-story.html" ta...
2016-10-18
Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?
2016-06-07
[["2016-06-07", 0.0], ["2016-06-07", 0.01], ["2016-06-07", 0.18], ["2016-06-07", 0.09], ["2016-06-07", 0.04], ["2016-06-07", 0.0], ["2016-06-07", 0.005], ["2016-06-08", 0.0], ["2016-06-08", 0.0], ["2016-06-08", 0.0], ["2016-06-08", 0.01], ["2016-06-08", 0.01], ["2016-06-08", 0.01], ["2016-06-08", 0.01], ["2016-06-08", ...
["http://en.parliran.ir/", "http://www.france24.com/en/20161006-iran-death-penalty-bill-reduce-executions-rouhani", "https://majlismonitor.com/en/2016/03/analysis-2016-iranian-parliamentary-assembly-of-experts-election-results/", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/08/03/1147420/president-rouhani-raps-lack-of-commi...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/828
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
2017-12-28
[["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-29", 0.325], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.02], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0....
["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/21/turkey-starts-ground-incursion-into-kurdish-controlled-afrin-in-syria", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/middleeast/syria-kurds-assault-civilians-intl/index.html", "http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/090920161", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/nujab...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/696
Cruise Automation, the self-driving unit of General Motors, <a href = "https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16488330/gm-cruise-nyc-self-driving-car-test-cuomo"target="_blank">recently announced</a> its intention to test autonomous Chevy Bolts in New York City <a href = "https://dmv.ny.gov/dmv/apply-autonomous-vehicle-te...
2018-04-04
Before 1 April 2018, will General Motors test an autonomous vehicle in New York City?
2017-11-17
[["2017-11-17", 0.75], ["2017-11-18", 0.8], ["2017-11-18", 0.95], ["2017-11-18", 0.55], ["2017-11-18", 0.525], ["2017-11-18", 0.7], ["2017-11-18", 0.74], ["2017-11-19", 0.8], ["2017-11-19", 0.83], ["2017-11-19", 0.855], ["2017-11-19", 0.85], ["2017-11-20", 0.855], ["2017-11-20", 0.82], ["2017-11-20", 0.4], ["2017-11-21...
["http://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-first-successful-autonomous-vehicle-demonstrations-new-york-state", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/waymo-robot-cars-need-little-human-help-as-gm-s-make-big-leap", "https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/17/16488330/gm-cruise-nyc-self-driving-car-...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-11-10
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/671
Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bahrain-ratings-fitch-idUSKCN0ZE1SG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-moodys-downgrades-oman-to-baa-idUSFWN1KJ18G"target="_b...
2017-11-20
Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?
2017-10-24
[["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-24", 0.33], ["2017-10-24", 0.33], ["2017-10-24", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.015], ["2017-10-25", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.005], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10...
["https://tradingeconomics.com/qatar/exports", "https://tradingeconomics.com/qatar/rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2017/11/07/Qatar-c-bank-s-foreign-reserves-liquidity-drop-in-September.html", "h...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-12-29
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/802
Saudi Arabia continues to hint at a possible domestic fuel price increase in 2017, but has not yet made a change (<a href = "https://uk.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks/mideast-stocks-gulf-moves-little-strong-oil-fails-to-boost-saudi-petchems-idUKL8N1N71FG"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Raising the price of any octane...
2018-01-04
Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel?
2017-11-29
[["2017-11-29", 0.35], ["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.405], ["2017-11-29", 0.155], ["2017-11-29", 0.19], ["2017-11-29", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.24], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-11-30", 0.24], ["2017-11-30", 0.365], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-11-30", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-12...
["http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-12-20/Saudi-Arabia-slows-phasing-out-energy-subsidies-under-new-long-term-budget-plan.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/key-figures-in-saudi-arabia-s-2018-budget-2017-fiscal-data", "http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=en&amp;newsid=1704324", "http://www.ara...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/183
Question will be resolved using the IMF's World Economic Outlook database, which releases reports in April and October (<a href = "http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28" target = "_blank">IMF</a>). The relevant indicators are the percent change in GDP using constant prices and the percent change in inflation usi...
2017-04-20
In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?
2016-04-19
[["2016-04-19", 0.525], ["2016-04-19", 0.65], ["2016-04-19", 0.415], ["2016-04-19", 0.31], ["2016-04-19", 0.43], ["2016-04-20", 0.31], ["2016-04-20", 0.35], ["2016-04-20", 0.39], ["2016-04-20", 0.355], ["2016-04-20", 0.29], ["2016-04-20", 0.29], ["2016-04-20", 0.25], ["2016-04-20", 0.225], ["2016-04-20", 0.25], ["2016-...
["https://www.ft.com/content/f86a3c6c-9c60-11e6-a6e4-8b8e77dd083a", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/12/tesco-running-low-key-unilever-brands-price-row-supplier-supermarket-falling-pound", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38300919", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/u-k-inflation-rate-...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/161
This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Iran rejected the oil output cap discussed by OPEC at its last meeting earlier this month and has only ramped up its exports (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/02/iran-rejects-oil-output-cap-as-opec-leaders-meet-in-vienna" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a...
2016-07-05
Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?
2016-03-15
[["2016-03-15", 0.265], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-15", 0.12], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-15", 0.075], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-15", 0.1], ["2016-03-16", 0.05], ["2016-03-16", 0.05], ["2016-03-16", 0.035], ["2016-03-16", 0.05], ["2016-03-16", 0.05], ["2016-03-16",...
["https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/02/iran-rejects-oil-output-cap-as-opec-leaders-meet-in-vienna", "https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/02/investing/opec-oil-decision-saudi-arabia-iran/", "http://www.investing.com/analysis/don%E2%80%99t-wait-on-iran-...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-10-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/16
The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.
2015-10-09
Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?
2015-09-01
[["2015-09-01", 0.72], ["2015-09-01", 0.65], ["2015-09-01", 0.65], ["2015-09-01", 0.75], ["2015-09-02", 0.725], ["2015-09-02", 0.675], ["2015-09-02", 0.675], ["2015-09-02", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.5], ["2015-09-02", 0.5], ["2015-09-02", 0.45], ["2015-09-03",...
["http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0804136696", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/the-power-of-precise-predictions.html", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0307408868", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feiler_Faster_Thesis", "http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=zg_bs_unv_b_1_2689_3", "http:/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/685
On 12 October 2017, Hamas and Fatah signed a unity agreement which outlined terms for Hamas to transfer control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/middleeast/hamas-fatah-agreement/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/world/middleea...
2018-01-04
Will Mahmoud Abbas visit Gaza before 1 January 2018?
2017-11-08
[["2017-11-08", 0.6], ["2017-11-08", 0.2], ["2017-11-08", 0.225], ["2017-11-08", 0.25], ["2017-11-08", 0.2], ["2017-11-08", 0.15], ["2017-11-08", 0.1], ["2017-11-08", 0.125], ["2017-11-08", 0.09], ["2017-11-08", 0.44], ["2017-11-08", 0.08], ["2017-11-08", 0.5], ["2017-11-08", 0.29], ["2017-11-09", 0.215], ["2017-11-09"...
["http://www.cia.com/", "https://www.geo.tv/latest/171252-us-vice-president-pence-unwelcome-in-palestine-fatah-official", "http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/06/world/meast/mideast-hamas-support/index.html", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/palestine-reconciliation-abbas-visit-gaza-hamas-fatah.html", "http:/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/455
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.12], ["2017-03-31", 0.135], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.925], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.55], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.31], ["2017...
["http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-idUKKBN1733PN", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-dead-erdogan-military-chief-ankara-istanbul-death-toll-plotters-how-many-killed-wounded-a7140376.html", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly-7000-civilians-killed-by-pkk-in-31-years-22370...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222
For more information on the New START Treaty see: <a href="http://www.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/index.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>. Escalating tensions between Russia and the US have generated concerns over the future of the New Start treaty (<a href="http://time.com/4280169/russia-nuclear-security-su...
2018-01-03
Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?
2016-06-14
[["2016-06-14", 0.515], ["2016-06-14", 0.15], ["2016-06-14", 0.35], ["2016-06-15", 0.25], ["2016-06-15", 0.14], ["2016-06-15", 0.1], ["2016-06-15", 0.05], ["2016-06-15", 0.05], ["2016-06-16", 0.04], ["2016-06-17", 0.05], ["2016-06-17", 0.05], ["2016-06-17", 0.03], ["2016-06-18", 0.05], ["2016-06-19", 0.05], ["2016-06-1...
["https://www.rt.com/news/404678-russia-ballistic-missile-test/", "http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/a-controversial-option-that-may-work-in-north-korea-1048852035776", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-bombers-fly-over-korean-peninsula-as-us-conducts-exercises-2017-8", "https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/459
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.08], ["2017-03-31", 0.065], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.425], ["2017-03-31", 0.425], ["2017-03-31", 0.425], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["201...
["http://www.philippinesnews.net/news/253433511/philippines-air-strikes-accidentally-kill-a-dozen-of-its-own-soldiers-instead-of-terrorists", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/asia/philippines-marawi-isis-hapilon/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38793008", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/dutertes-war-on-dr...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-01-20
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195
This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017. Since Judge Andrew S. Hanen issued a preliminary injunction on 22 June that blocked the implementation of the expanded Deferred Action, the Supreme Court tie at 4-4 has prevented it from being implemented. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=...
2017-01-20
Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program be implemented prior to inauguration day?
2016-05-06
[["2016-05-06", 0.65], ["2016-05-06", 0.35], ["2016-05-06", 0.425], ["2016-05-06", 0.45], ["2016-05-07", 0.35], ["2016-05-07", 0.2], ["2016-05-07", 0.15], ["2016-05-07", 0.15], ["2016-05-07", 0.21], ["2016-05-07", 0.18], ["2016-05-08", 0.18], ["2016-05-08", 0.18], ["2016-05-08", 0.2], ["2016-05-08", 0.175], ["2016-05-0...
["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195-will-the-deferred-action-for-parents-of-americans-and-lawful-permanent-residents-dapa-program-be-implemented-prior-to-inauguration-day/www.nilc.org/issues/immigration-reform-and-executive-actions/united-states-v-state-of-texas/supreme-courts-tie-vote-means-dapa-daca/", "http://www...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/50
The Bank of Japan may expand its quantitative easing program in an effort to stimulate the economy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/qe-back-in-focus-turns-rally-of-euro-and-yen-into-two-day-wonder , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/yen-pares-loss-as-bank-of-japan-refrains-from-adding-...
2016-01-04
Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?
2015-09-28
[["2015-09-28", 0.815], ["2015-09-28", 0.675], ["2015-09-28", 0.79], ["2015-09-28", 0.675], ["2015-09-29", 0.765], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.78], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.795], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015...
["http://www.businessinsider.com.au/stocks-in-tokyo-are-under-pressure-after-the-bank-of-japan-surprised-markets-with-an-easing-today-2015-12", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/18/confusion-over-bank-of-japan-move-pressures-markets-live", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-the-worlds-centra...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-08-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/436
After the International Court of Arbitration ruled against China's territorial claims in a landmark case in June 2016, China stated that it has a right to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https:...
2017-08-03
Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?
2017-03-16
[["2017-03-16", 0.03], ["2017-03-16", 0.17], ["2017-03-16", 0.0], ["2017-03-16", 0.5], ["2017-03-16", 0.31], ["2017-03-16", 0.075], ["2017-03-17", 0.1], ["2017-03-17", 0.15], ["2017-03-17", 0.2], ["2017-03-17", 0.26], ["2017-03-17", 0.245], ["2017-03-17", 0.17], ["2017-03-18", 0.18], ["2017-03-18", 0.14], ["2017-03-18"...
["http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/us-protests-intercept-by-chinese-jets-china-blames-us", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/china-outraged-by-planned-1-point-42-billion-us-arms-sales-to-taiwan.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy-warship-spratly-islands.html?_r=0", "http://w...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-09-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/34
This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30 2016. An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/...
2016-10-04
Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?
2015-09-14
[["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.585], ["2015-09-15", 0.65], ["2015-09-15", 0.59], ["2015-09-15", 0.55], ["2015-09-16", 0.485], ["2015-09-16", 0.4], ["2015-09-16", 0.4], ["2015-09-16", 0.475], ["2015-09-16", 0.4], ["2015-09-16", 0.4], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17"...
["http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21701793-plans-rein-credit-slowly-take-shape-coming-clean", "https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-09-13/asia-s-junk-bond-rally-rests-on-a-chinese-house-of-cards", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a22861/chinas-air-forces-announce-regular-p...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/502
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>) <sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:clarifications@goodjudgment.com?s...
2018-01-28
Will Apple's end-of-day market capitalization exceed $1 trillion before 1 January 2018?
2017-06-16
[["2017-06-16", 0.75], ["2017-06-16", 0.17], ["2017-06-16", 0.15], ["2017-06-16", 0.085], ["2017-06-16", 0.03], ["2017-06-16", 0.03], ["2017-06-16", 0.03], ["2017-06-17", 0.19], ["2017-06-17", 0.135], ["2017-06-17", 0.1], ["2017-06-17", 0.095], ["2017-06-17", 0.1], ["2017-06-17", 0.1], ["2017-06-17", 0.09], ["2017-06-1...
["https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/how-apples-market-cap-could-reach-1-trillion.html", "https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/19/technology/farhads-and-mikes-week-in-tech-apples-big-media-bet-and-more-uber-drama.html?emc=edit_th_20170820&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;nl...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/917
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.55], ["2018-04-02", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.11], ["2018-04-03", 0.235], ["2018-04-03", 0.185], ["2018-04-03", 0.395], ["2018-04-03", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-05", 0.015], ["2018-04-06", 0.055], ["2018-04-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/622
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.185], ["2017-10-01", 0.3], ["2017-10-01", 0.125], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10-02", 0.44], ["2017-10-03", 0.125], ["2017-10-03", 0.1], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03", 0.02], ["2017-10-03"...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-05-25
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1067
Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has served as prime minister of India since 2014 (<a href="https://worldin2019.economist.com/Indiasmegavote" target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href="http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2145_E.htm" target="_blank">Inter-Parliamentary Union</a>). Gen...
2019-05-31
Will Narendra Modi be appointed to a second consecutive term as prime minister of India after the 2019 general elections?
2018-12-21
[["2018-12-22", 0.98], ["2018-12-22", 0.775], ["2018-12-22", 0.75], ["2018-12-23", 0.8], ["2018-12-23", 0.775], ["2018-12-26", 0.75], ["2018-12-27", 0.7], ["2018-12-28", 0.7], ["2018-12-28", 0.73], ["2018-12-29", 0.705], ["2018-12-30", 0.71], ["2018-12-30", 0.73], ["2018-12-31", 0.71], ["2019-01-01", 0.71], ["2019-01-0...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-11-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/282
This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R - NH) lost her bid for reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="h...
2016-11-16
Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November?
2016-09-16
[["2016-09-16", 0.55], ["2016-09-16", 0.55], ["2016-09-16", 0.5], ["2016-09-16", 0.695], ["2016-09-17", 0.59], ["2016-09-17", 0.59], ["2016-09-17", 0.6], ["2016-09-17", 0.595], ["2016-09-17", 0.595], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-18", 0.55], ["2016-09-...
["http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/maggie-hassan-kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-senate/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY3uW-QYfj4", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/new-hampshire/", "https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2016&amp;id=NHS1", "http://boston.cbsloc...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/666
North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program is continuing to advance (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKCN10Y2B0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/north-koreas-submarine-missile-tests-critical-advance-highly/"targ...
2018-01-04
Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea launch an SLBM?
2017-10-23
[["2017-10-25", 0.05], ["2017-10-25", 0.125], ["2017-10-25", 0.33], ["2017-10-25", 0.415], ["2017-10-26", 0.4], ["2017-10-26", 0.7], ["2017-10-26", 0.125], ["2017-10-26", 0.05], ["2017-10-26", 0.125], ["2017-10-26", 0.2], ["2017-10-26", 0.25], ["2017-10-26", 0.215], ["2017-10-26", 0.275], ["2017-10-26", 0.18], ["2017-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-13
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/483
A non-mandatory embargo will not count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (<a href = "https://www.ecr.co.za/news/news/south-sudan-buys-weapons-during-famine-un-report/"target="_blank">ECR</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/1...
2018-07-16
Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?
2017-05-09
[["2017-05-09", 0.5], ["2017-05-09", 0.7], ["2017-05-09", 0.65], ["2017-05-10", 0.6], ["2017-05-10", 0.575], ["2017-05-10", 0.45], ["2017-05-10", 0.45], ["2017-05-10", 0.55], ["2017-05-11", 0.625], ["2017-05-11", 0.5], ["2017-05-11", 0.5], ["2017-05-12", 0.455], ["2017-05-12", 0.405], ["2017-05-12", 0.4], ["2017-05-12"...
["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-southsudan-arms-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-to-end-conflict-sources-idUSKBN1FM0ZE", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/04/people-burned-to-death-in-homes-by-south-sudan-government-militias-amnesty-report", "https://www.bloo...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/457
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.02], ["2017-0...
["https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257738.pdf"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-06-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/36
This question was closed as "yes" on 30 June 2016: On June 30th, Baltimore City Circuit Judge Martin Welch vacated Syed's conviction (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/30/484225226/adnan-syed-subject-of-serial-podcast-will-get-a-new-trial" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://serialpodcast.or...
2016-07-06
Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the "Serial" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?
2015-09-14
[["2015-09-14", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-1...
["https://www.google.ca/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/adnan-syed-to-be-given-a-retrial-after-serial-podcast-questioned/amp/?client=ms-android-rogers-ca#", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/30/484225226/adnan-syed-subject-of-serial-podcast-will-get-a-new-trial?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campa...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-09-09
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/568
This question closed as "a) yes" with an end date of 9 September 2017. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data...
2017-09-15
Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Senegal during September 2017?
2017-08-23
[["2017-08-23", 0.27], ["2017-08-23", 0.65], ["2017-08-23", 0.375], ["2017-08-24", 0.2], ["2017-08-24", 0.65], ["2017-08-24", 0.32], ["2017-08-24", 1.0], ["2017-08-24", 0.895], ["2017-08-24", 0.88], ["2017-08-24", 0.88], ["2017-08-24", 0.88], ["2017-08-24", 0.97], ["2017-08-24", 0.97], ["2017-08-24", 0.67], ["2017-08-2...
["https://twitter.com/senegal221news", "http://senego.com/greve-de-la-faim-des-jeunes-khalifistes-modou-diagne-fada-considere-que-leur-objectif-est-atteint_556936.html", "https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sg.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201709080698.html", "https://sn.usembassy.go...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/208
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> China's anti-corru...
2017-01-06
Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?
2016-05-24
[["2016-05-24", 0.795], ["2016-05-24", 0.9], ["2016-05-24", 0.9], ["2016-05-24", 0.47], ["2016-05-24", 0.45], ["2016-05-24", 0.65], ["2016-05-25", 0.675], ["2016-05-25", 0.7], ["2016-05-25", 0.605], ["2016-05-25", 0.605], ["2016-05-25", 0.61], ["2016-05-25", 0.56], ["2016-05-25", 0.64], ["2016-05-26", 0.66], ["2016-05-...
["https://www.ft.com/content/52871ca4-7a35-11e6-ae24-f193b105145e", "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/watching-signs-political-triumph-xi", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37869769", "http://www.china.org.cn/china/2016-09/19/content_39322817.htm", "https://twitter.com/relevantorgans/status/7855911793792573...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/419
A lethal confrontation, in this case, is one that results in at least three fatalities. Civilian fatalities will count so long as the military, law enforcement, or militia of China and another country are involved in the confrontation. China has been using People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN), militia, and law enforceme...
2018-01-02
Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country?
2017-02-21
[["2017-02-21", 0.375], ["2017-02-21", 0.15], ["2017-02-21", 0.125], ["2017-02-22", 0.08], ["2017-02-22", 0.03], ["2017-02-22", 0.03], ["2017-02-22", 0.03], ["2017-02-22", 0.04], ["2017-02-22", 0.05], ["2017-02-23", 0.065], ["2017-02-23", 0.07], ["2017-02-23", 0.145], ["2017-02-23", 0.16], ["2017-02-23", 0.11], ["2017-...
["http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4791.htm", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/09/trump-urge-un-north-korea-naval-blockade-oil-embargo?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EBB%2009/11/2017&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/world/asia/china-...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-06-05
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/428
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 5 June 2017 (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_144647.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/montenegro-joins-nato-n768521" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegr...
2017-06-08
Will Montenegro become a full NATO member before 1 January 2018?
2017-03-07
[["2017-03-07", 0.89], ["2017-03-07", 0.95], ["2017-03-07", 0.885], ["2017-03-07", 0.87], ["2017-03-07", 0.935], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.795], ["2017-03-08", 0.57], ["2017-03-08", 0.64], ["2017-03-08", 0.64], ["2017-03-08", 0.9], ["2017-03-08", 0.8], ["2017-03-...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-exclusive-idUSKBN16S2VH?il=0", "https://twitter.com/MeGovernment/status/862589342925107200", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16Y2QF?il=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veto", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/news/override-obama-veto...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2019-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/941
For the specific heavy weaponry withdrawal requirements see <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf" target="_blank">Annex 1, No. 2 of the Minsk II Agreement</a>. The OSCE has established a Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and one of its tasks ...
2019-10-01
Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?
2018-04-18
[["2018-04-18", 0.1], ["2018-04-18", 0.0], ["2018-04-19", 0.0], ["2018-04-19", 0.025], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.035], ["2018-04-21", 0.03], ["2018-04-23", 0.02], ["2018-04-23", 0.0], ["2018-04-24", 0.0], ["2018-04-25", 0.0], ["2018-04-25", 0.0], ["2018-04-26", 0.0], ["2018-04-26", 0....
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-01-16
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/72
Elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and Assembly of Experts are scheduled for 26 February 2016. Although moderates in Iran hope to expedite implementation of the agreement in order to secure sanction relief before the election, the US has estimated that implementation may take as long as six months (https:/...
2016-01-18
Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections?
2015-11-03
[["2015-11-03", 0.825], ["2015-11-03", 0.845], ["2015-11-03", 0.76], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-04", 0.65], ["2015-11-04", 0.635], ["201...
["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d98ce7f6-b94c-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html", "http://www.wral.com/pentagon-2-us-navy-boats-held-by-iran-but-will-be-returned/15229502/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-by-monday-as-nuclear-deal-implemented", "http://www.businessinsider.com/u...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0