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True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/762
There have been confirmed cases of Marburg, a deadly virus similar to Ebola, for the first time since 2014 (<a href = "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/"target="_blank">World Health Organization</a>, <a href = "http://time.com/5013603/what-is-marburg-virus/"target="-blank">Time Magazi...
2018-01-04
Will the WHO confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.225], ["2017-11-29", 0.505], ["2017-11-29", 0.38], ["2017-11-29", 0.56], ["2017-11-29", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.08], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30"...
["http://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1002877", "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/", "http://www.who.int/csr/don/15-november-2017-marburg-uganda-kenya/en/ng", "http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2017/uganda-marburg-virus-disease/en/", "http...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/40
The political crisis in Northern Ireland threatens the power-sharing agreement between the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/northern-irelands-political-crisis-the-assembly-has-delivered-little-so-far-but-most-unionists-and-republicans-want-it-to-survive-10497317.html , htt...
2016-01-06
Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?
2015-09-21
[["2015-09-21", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.35], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.275], ["2015-09-22", 0.225], ["2015-09-22", 0.225], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-23", 0.24], ["2015-09-23", 0.22], ["2015-09-24", 0.195], ["2015-09-24", 0.15], ["2015-09-24", 0.15], ["2015-09-25", 0.15], ["2015-...
["http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2015/10/22/news/alternative-to-stormont-is-savage-tory-cuts-301428/", "http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/17/northern-ireland-power-sharing-saved", "http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/stormont-deal-held-up-by-stand-off-on-national-security-1-706...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/117
In November 2015, foreign governments participating in UN-backed talks agreed that Syria should hold new elections in the next two years (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-shooting-syria-idUSKCN0T30Q520151114#8cKdE8OtClo8OiDS.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12...
2018-01-02
Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
2016-01-20
[["2016-01-20", 0.365], ["2016-01-20", 0.17], ["2016-01-20", 0.135], ["2016-01-21", 0.165], ["2016-01-21", 0.16], ["2016-01-21", 0.19], ["2016-01-21", 0.19], ["2016-01-22", 0.165], ["2016-01-22", 0.18], ["2016-01-22", 0.155], ["2016-01-22", 0.15], ["2016-01-23", 0.15], ["2016-01-23", 0.15], ["2016-01-24", 0.15], ["2016...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-03-13
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/694
Alphabet's self-driving car company, Waymo, recently announced the testing of its driverless vehicles in Arizona and the planned launch of a driverless transportation service (<a href = "https://medium.com/waymo/with-waymo-in-the-drivers-seat-fully-self-driving-vehicles-can-transform-the-way-we-get-around-75e9622e829a"...
2018-04-04
Before 1 July 2018, will Waymo launch a driverless transportation service open to the public?
2017-11-17
[["2017-11-17", 0.96], ["2017-11-17", 0.625], ["2017-11-18", 1.0], ["2017-11-18", 1.0], ["2017-11-18", 0.97], ["2017-11-18", 0.95], ["2017-11-18", 0.825], ["2017-11-18", 0.25], ["2017-11-18", 0.2], ["2017-11-18", 0.175], ["2017-11-19", 0.16], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-19", 0.25], ["2017-11-1...
["https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/22/tesla-on-autopilot-slams-into-parked-fire-truck-on-freeway/", "https://waymo.com/apply/", "https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/29/waymo-orders-thousands-of-pacificas-for-2018-self-driving-fleet-rollout/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/technology/driverless-cars-testing.html", "...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-12-23
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/765
This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the <a href = "http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml"target="-blank">Security Council Resolut...
2018-01-02
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Somalia between 29 November 2017 and 22 December 2017 ?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.55], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.105], ["2017-11-29", 0.155], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.4], ["2017-11-30", 0.405], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.16], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-11-30", 0.15], ["2017-...
["http://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/powmonthly.pdf", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/powmonthly.pdf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/630203", "https://www.un.org/en/sc/inc/pages/pdf/pow/forecast.pdf", "http://www.securitycouncilr...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-11-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4
China suspended initial public offerings (IPOs) in early July (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-04/china-stock-brokers-set-up-19-billion-fund-to-stem-market-rout , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-china-markets-brokerage-pledge-idUSKCN0PE08E20150705 , http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-setting-...
2015-12-07
Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?
2015-09-01
[["2015-09-01", 0.645], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-03", 0.275], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.35], ["2015-09-05", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.325], ["2015-09-08", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.33], ["2015-09...
["http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/12/04/us-china-ipo-idUKKBN0TN02O20151204", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#oxOOjdjL7TSZUsjI.99&amp;quot", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-rigged-ipos-1449102648", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/china-explosives-mak...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-10-02
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/287
This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 10/2/2016. The plebiscite did not approve the peace agreement ( <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/colombia-farc-peace-deal-collapse-whats-next/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37537252" target...
2016-10-04
Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite?
2016-09-20
[["2016-09-20", 0.5], ["2016-09-20", 0.68], ["2016-09-20", 0.84], ["2016-09-20", 1.0], ["2016-09-20", 0.925], ["2016-09-20", 0.95], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.95], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.85], ["2016-09-20", 0.825], ["2016-09-20", 0.9], ["2016-09-20", 0.8], ["2016-09-20", 0.775], ["2016-09-20",...
["http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/26/inenglish/1474883844_556723.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKCN11W0BR?il=0", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0489xkc", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/americas/colombia-farc-peace-deal/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-26/waging-peace...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/90
This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> The fallout from T...
2017-01-06
Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?
2015-12-08
[["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.85], ["2015-12-10", 0.795], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", ...
["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomacy-idUSKBN1481RE", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/10/09/rosatom-ceo-and-turkish-energy-minister-discuss-akkuyu-npp-project_637175", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/343659", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/03/c_135878442.htm", "http://rbth.com/new...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-06-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1097
A suit over First Amendment rights violations was dismissed by the district court, concluding that First Amendment protections do not apply to Manhattan Neighborhood Network because it is not a public forum and its employees are not state actors (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-otc-halleck-firstamendment/a-...
2019-06-18
In Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, will the Supreme Court rule that the Manhattan Neighborhood Network is a public forum for First Amendment purposes?
2019-01-11
[["2019-01-11", 0.5], ["2019-01-11", 0.01], ["2019-01-11", 0.28], ["2019-01-11", 0.285], ["2019-01-12", 0.01], ["2019-01-12", 0.125], ["2019-01-12", 0.14], ["2019-01-12", 0.29], ["2019-01-13", 0.55], ["2019-01-13", 0.65], ["2019-01-13", 0.65], ["2019-01-13", 0.7], ["2019-01-13", 0.7], ["2019-01-14", 0.7], ["2019-01-14"...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/185
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (<a href="https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2017/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/" target="_blank">The Mack Institute</a>). <hr> Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economie...
2017-03-03
Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?
2016-04-22
[["2016-04-22", 0.28], ["2016-04-22", 0.165], ["2016-04-22", 0.58], ["2016-04-22", 0.465], ["2016-04-22", 0.45], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.55], ["2016-04-22", 0.72], ["2016-04-22", 0.72], ["2016-04-22", 0.5], ["2016-04-22", 0.5], ["2016-04-2...
["http://themarketmogul.com/the-electric-car-might-spell-the-death-of-oil-heres-why/", "http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-ev-battery-cells-down-to-145kwh-and-still-falling/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/394422", "http://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/study-shows-that-electric-cars-could-take-over-wealthy-cities...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-06-20
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/85
Afghanistan has not had a confirmed Minister of Defense since Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as President in September 2014 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-afghanistan-politics-idUSKCN0PE08420150704#2Df5zjLfJbW8jhZO.97" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/rejection-of-...
2016-06-22
Will Afghanistan's Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?
2015-11-24
[["2015-11-24", 0.87], ["2015-11-25", 0.02], ["2015-11-25", 0.04], ["2015-11-25", 0.04], ["2015-11-26", 0.095], ["2015-11-26", 0.19], ["2015-11-26", 0.2], ["2015-11-27", 0.205], ["2015-11-28", 0.29], ["2015-11-28", 0.33], ["2015-11-29", 0.4], ["2015-11-29", 0.45], ["2015-11-30", 0.45], ["2015-11-30", 0.475], ["2015-12-...
["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/263425", "http://www.afghan-bios.info/index.php?option=com_afghanbios&amp;id=1740&amp;task=view&amp;total=3315&amp;start=2897&amp;Itemid=2", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/old-names-for-the-nds-and-defence-ministry-nug-proposes-stanakzai-and-abdullah-khan-again/", "http...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-11-14
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/583
On 31 July 2017, Qatar filed WTO <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news17_e/ds526_7_8rfc_04aug17_e.htm" target="_blank">complaints against the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia</a> (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-wto-exclusive-idUSKBN1AG1WJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). ...
2017-11-29
Before 15 November 2017, will the WTO establish a dispute settlement panel for any of Qatar's complaints against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain?
2017-09-06
[["2017-09-06", 0.15], ["2017-09-06", 0.25], ["2017-09-06", 0.175], ["2017-09-06", 0.1], ["2017-09-06", 0.085], ["2017-09-06", 0.06], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.075], ["2017-09-07", 0.185], ["2017-09-07", 0.185], ["2017-09-07", 0.15], ["2017-09-07", 0.27], ["2017-09-07", 0.08], ["2017-...
["https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/events_e/events_e.htm", "https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dsu_e.htm#4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/571629", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispute_settlement_in_the_World_Trade_Organization", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-wto/qatar-escalat...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1009
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.04], ["2018-10-01", 0.04], ["2018-10-01", 0.03], ["2018-10-01", 0.03], ["2018-10-03", 0.03], ["2018-10-04", 0.035], ["2018-10-04", 0.03], ["2018-10-05", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.03], ["2018-10-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-09-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/10
Russia imposed an embargo on food imports from the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August of 2014 as retaliation for western sanctions. In early August, Russia extended the embargo for another year (www.rt.com/business/269644-russia-food-embargo-extension ) and added Iceland, Albania, Montengro, and Liech...
2015-09-28
Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?
2015-09-01
[["2015-09-01", 0.25], ["2015-09-01", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.3], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.2], ["2015-09-02", 0.225], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-03", 0.22], ["2015-09-0...
["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ed158b66-f304-11e4-b98f-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3ZJwlAvNo", "http://rbth.com/business/2015/08/18/which_countries_have_benefited_from_russias_food_embargo_48587.html", "http://www.levada.ru/eng/", "http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-and-russian-food-embargo-success-sto...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/30
This question was closed as "no with an end date of 31 December 2016. <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. <hr> Analysts suggest that...
2017-01-04
Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?
2015-09-14
[["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.045], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-16", 0.05], ["2015-09-...
["http://www.ekathimerini.com/214662/article/ekathimerini/news/cancer-related-deaths-on-the-rise-in-greece", "http://www.amna.gr/english/article/16407/Dep.-Economy-minister:-Most-important-structural-change-needed-in-Greece-is-in-mentality", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/12/02/greeces-disabled-people-take-to-th...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. In making this decision, the question team carefully reviewed the open source evidence of three different incidents. The first two incidents were reviewed when the initial news broke and again at the end of the year. The third was considered when th...
2017-01-16
Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?
2016-01-19
[["2016-01-19", 0.935], ["2016-01-19", 0.925], ["2016-01-19", 0.9], ["2016-01-19", 0.72], ["2016-01-19", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.65], ["2016-01-20", 0.55], ["2016-01-21", 0.55], ["2016-01-21", 0.54], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21", 0.5], ["2016-01-21"...
["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpocracy", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/russian-hackers-electricity-grid-vermont-233085", "http://www.nti.org/analysis/tools/table/133/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/nuclear-power-plants-vulnerable-hacking-attack-cyber-nightmare-united-nations-a7479546.html", "ht...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-26
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/669
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has said that he would be willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/10/south-korea-new-president-moon-jae-in-meet-north-kim-jong-un"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/world/a...
2018-04-27
Will Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in meet before 1 November 2018?
2017-10-24
[["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.005], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.0], ["2017-10-25", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-27", 0.0], ["2017-10-27", 0.0], ...
["https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/08/asia/north-korea-moon-jae-in-visit-possible/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2018-northkorea-southkorea/south-koreas-moon-hosts-talks-with-north-korean-leaders-sister-idUSKBN1FU05F", "https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/948194400114487296", "http://www.ne...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-08-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/250
In the wake of a failed coup attempt in July 2016, Erdogan has aimed to consolidate his power (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13746679" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/world/europe/turkey-media-newspapers-shut.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.blo...
2017-08-03
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?
2016-08-02
[["2016-08-02", 0.075], ["2016-08-02", 0.19], ["2016-08-02", 0.15], ["2016-08-02", 0.05], ["2016-08-02", 0.055], ["2016-08-03", 0.05], ["2016-08-03", 0.06], ["2016-08-03", 0.05], ["2016-08-03", 0.06], ["2016-08-03", 0.075], ["2016-08-03", 0.05], ["2016-08-04", 0.065], ["2016-08-04", 0.065], ["2016-08-04", 0.065], ["201...
["https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-19/even-some-erdogan-diehards-flinch-at-giving-him-more-powers", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-syria-idUSKBN17R2GU", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/02/12/Turkish-president-Islamic-States-ouster-from-key-Syrian-stronghold-im...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/908
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.03], ["2018-04-03", 0.13], ["2018-04-03", 0.425], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.24], ["2018-04-03", 0.145], ["2018-04-04", 0.07], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/915
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.04], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.17], ["2018-04-03", 0.135], ["2018-04-04", 0.02], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-05", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-05-09
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353
Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/ban-ki-moon-leaves-presidential-bid-on-the-table/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, se...
2017-05-11
Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea?
2016-11-22
[["2016-11-22", 0.775], ["2016-11-22", 0.41], ["2016-11-22", 0.49], ["2016-11-22", 0.4], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.6], ["2016-11-23", 0.625], ["2016-11-23", 0.55], ["2016-11-23", 0.475], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-...
["http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/780862.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html?pagewanted=all", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-u-n-secretary-general-ban-ki-moon-drops-out-of-south-korean-presidential-race-1485931698", "http://westsid...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/493
The Syrian regime has been accused of using chemical weapons against their own people (<a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity"target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). The April 2017 sarin gas attack on a hospital in Idlib province prompted an an emergency me...
2018-01-02
Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria?
2017-06-06
[["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.135], ["2017-06-06", 0.05], ["2017-06-06", 0.085], ["2017-06-06", 0.095], ["2017-06-07", 0.07], ["2017-06-07", 0.07], ["2017-06-07", 0.01], ["2017-06-07", 0.015], ["2017-06-07", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.08], ["2017-06-08", 0.145], ["2017-06-08", 0.315], ["201...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/798
This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the Security Council Resolution table (<a href = "http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml"targe...
2018-01-02
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Myanmar by 31 December 2017?
2017-11-29
[["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30"...
["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists-un/u-n-denies-arrested-reuters-reporters-in-myanmar-had-given-it-information-idUSKBN1EF1K2", "http://time.com/5012779/security-council-myanmar-rohingya/", "https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13117.doc.htm", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-03-29
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/63
If the Justice Department does pursue a criminal case, it would be the first-ever against an auto maker for skirting emissions standards (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-may-not-face-environmental-criminal-charges-1443567204" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>). 10/22/2015: The question stem...
2016-04-01
Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?
2015-10-19
[["2015-10-19", 0.85], ["2015-10-19", 0.95], ["2015-10-19", 0.75], ["2015-10-19", 0.725], ["2015-10-20", 0.575], ["2015-10-20", 0.55], ["2015-10-20", 0.35], ["2015-10-20", 0.3], ["2015-10-20", 0.375], ["2015-10-20", 0.35], ["2015-10-20", 0.25], ["2015-10-20", 0.305], ["2015-10-21", 0.4], ["2015-10-21", 0.4], ["2015-10-...
["http://www.ibtimes.com/volkswagen-diesel-scandal-will-us-justice-department-file-criminal-charges-against-2110996", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "http://dirtdiggersdigest.org/archives/5055", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-usa-idUSKBN0UI1QP20160104", "http://www.mark...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-11-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/215
This question closed with the correct answer "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Governor Pat McCrory lost his bid for election to Roy Cooper. (<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/north-carolina-governor-pat-mccrory-concedes-528561" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w...
2016-12-06
Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?
2016-06-03
[["2016-06-03", 0.63], ["2016-06-03", 0.35], ["2016-06-03", 0.48], ["2016-06-03", 0.54], ["2016-06-03", 0.58], ["2016-06-03", 0.56], ["2016-06-04", 0.53], ["2016-06-04", 0.5], ["2016-06-04", 0.475], ["2016-06-04", 0.49], ["2016-06-05", 0.5], ["2016-06-05", 0.48], ["2016-06-05", 0.525], ["2016-06-05", 0.525], ["2016-06-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/257
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project's Definitions page</a>. According to those criteria, Afghanistan is already experiencing an episode of mass killing perpetrated by the Taliban (<a h...
2017-03-30
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017?
2016-08-09
[["2016-08-09", 1.0], ["2016-08-09", 0.925], ["2016-08-09", 0.86], ["2016-08-09", 0.8], ["2016-08-10", 0.825], ["2016-08-10", 0.72], ["2016-08-10", 0.635], ["2016-08-10", 0.45], ["2016-08-10", 0.34], ["2016-08-10", 0.15], ["2016-08-10", 0.07], ["2016-08-10", 0.06], ["2016-08-10", 0.115], ["2016-08-10", 0.205], ["2016-0...
["https://news.vice.com/article/war-related-violence-in-afghanistan-killed-and-injured-more-civilians-than-ever-last-year", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/in-afghanistan-kunduz-under-siege-once-again/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315996", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?charttype=line...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-04-07
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/388
The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2017/article/12602/trumpquake"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>). <sub>Confu...
2017-04-10
Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?
2017-01-17
[["2017-01-17", 0.25], ["2017-01-17", 0.76], ["2017-01-17", 0.82], ["2017-01-17", 0.8], ["2017-01-17", 0.7], ["2017-01-17", 0.62], ["2017-01-18", 0.62], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.66], ["2017-01-18", 0.67], ["2017-01-18", 0.7], ["2017-01-18", 0.675], ["2017-01-18", 0.66], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-19"...
["https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-expected-to-confirm-neil-gorsuch-as-supreme-court-justice-1491557404", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-08/gorsuch-approved-us-senate-supreme-court-justice/8427504", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senate-confirms-neil-gorsuch_us_58e7a139e4b05413bfe244ca?mas&amp", "http://w...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/920
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser...
2019-05-20
Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
2018-04-02
[["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.55], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.23], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.545], ["2018-04-04", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.35], ["2018-04-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1017
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.005], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-09-30", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.005], ["2018-10-01", 0.005], ["2018-10-02", 0.01], ["2018-10-03", 0.0...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/755
Leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are sponsoring a conference aimed at achieving a peaceful settlement of the Syrian civil war (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/22/world/europe/russia-turkey-iran-syria-war-peace-talks.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/m...
2018-01-02
Will a framework for an end to the Syrian conflict be agreed upon by 31 December 2017?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.0...
["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War#/media/File:Syrian_Civil_War_map.svg", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/629627", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/12/24/Moscow-to-Syrian-Opposition-We-do-not-support-Bashar-al-Assad-s-departure-.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/764
South Korea has threatened to file a WTO complaint if the US imposes additional tariffs or import restrictions on solar panels (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-trade-solar/south-korea-may-consider-filing-wto-complaint-over-u-s-solar-tariffs-idUSKBN1D2115"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "h...
2018-01-04
Before 1 January 2018, will South Korea file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30"...
["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-trade-solar/south-korea-may-consider-filing-wto-complaint-over-u-s-solar-tariffs-idUSKBN1D2115", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-takes-india-back-to-world-trade-organization-in-solar-power-dispute-1790191?pfrom=home-lateststories"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-05-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/232
Mousavi and Karroubi ran as opposition candidates in Iran's 2009 presidential election. Both contested the official results, and the two have been under house arrest since 2011, when they called for a demonstration in support of the uprisings that were occurring at the time in Egypt and Tunisia (<a href="http://www.al-...
2017-06-02
Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?
2016-07-05
[["2016-07-05", 0.0], ["2016-07-05", 0.325], ["2016-07-05", 0.33], ["2016-07-05", 0.37], ["2016-07-05", 0.305], ["2016-07-06", 0.4], ["2016-07-06", 0.55], ["2016-07-06", 0.55], ["2016-07-06", 0.42], ["2016-07-06", 0.36], ["2016-07-07", 0.06], ["2016-07-07", 0.36], ["2016-07-07", 0.325], ["2016-07-07", 0.3], ["2016-07-0...
["http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2017/Feb-15/393716-ayatollah-khamenei-criticizes-irans-president-on-economy-ahead-of-vote.ashx", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/01/iran-reformists-stand-lose-rafsanjani-death-170109100325733.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/en/originals/2016/03/rouh...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/516
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.575], ["2017-07-01", 0.575], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.15], ["2017-07-02", 0.175], ["2017-07-02", 0.175], ["2017-07-03", 0.175], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017-07-03", 0.125], ["2017...
["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/why-nigeria-is-facing-secessionist-fervor-again-quicktake-q-a"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-27
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/645
If the relevant governments are overthrown during an invasion, an announcement by a third party government accusing Russia of invasion will count. Examples of past accusations of Russian military intervention include Georgia's claim that Russia invaded its territory in August of 2008 (<a href = "http://www.belfastteleg...
2018-01-04
Before 27 December 2017, will Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission?
2017-10-09
[["2017-10-11", 0.15], ["2017-10-11", 0.105], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.0], ["2017-10-11", 0.015], ["2017-10-12", 0.015], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.025], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-10-12", 0.035], ["2017-10-12...
["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/06/nato-russia-belarus-zapad", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/latvias-cellphones-stopped-working-russias-war-games-may-be-to-blame/2017/10/05/449162d4-a9d3-11e7-9a98-07140d2eed02_story.html", "htt...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1018
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.06], ["2018-10-03", 0.06], ["2018-10-04", 0.05], ["2018-10-06", 0.06], ["2018-10-06", 0.04], ["2018-10-07", 0.015], ["2018-10-09...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-11-16
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/649
Poland's president has approved amendments to a law that bans the promotion of communism, including World War II era memorials dedicated to Soviet troops (<a href = "https://www.rferl.org/a/28778037.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/07/20/russia-preparing-r...
2017-11-22
Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will any World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland?
2017-10-16
[["2017-10-18", 0.8], ["2017-10-18", 0.75], ["2017-10-18", 0.65], ["2017-10-18", 0.775], ["2017-10-19", 0.6], ["2017-10-19", 0.89], ["2017-10-19", 0.6], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.66], ["2017-10-19", 0.685], ["2017-10-19", 0.65], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-19", 0.5], ["2017-10-19",...
["https://www.wprost.pl/kraj/10086696/w-szczecinie-usuwaja-pomnik-wdziecznosci-armii-radzieckiej.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36656226", "http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/2017/10/30/richard-spencer-bound-europe/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/615950", "https://bip.malopolska.pl/umkalwariazebrzy...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-06-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346
Saudi Arabia warned of economic fallout from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which Congress passed over the president's veto on September 28, 2016 (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-warns-ofeconomic-fallout-if-congress-passes-9-11-bill.html" target="_blank">NY Times...
2017-07-24
Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017?
2016-11-08
[["2016-11-08", 0.0], ["2016-11-08", 0.45], ["2016-11-08", 0.75], ["2016-11-08", 0.155], ["2016-11-08", 0.02], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-09", 0.19], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-10", 0.18], ["2016-11-10", 0.16], ["2016-11-10", 0.17], ["2016-11-10", 0.225], ["2016-11-10", 0.29], ["2016-11-...
["http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/saudi-arabia-seeking-8bn-loan-plug-fiscal-deficit-1548606", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/236-before-1-july-2017-will-scotland-set-a-date-for-another-referendum-on-independence-from-the-united-kingdom", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/u-s-discloses-saudi-arabia-s-treas...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1022
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.14], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-03", 0.09], ["2018-10-03", 0.08], ["2018-10-04", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-06", 0.08], ["2018-10-07", 0.07], ["2018-10-09", 0.07], ["2018-10-12...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-09-11
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/936
Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21740253-even-behind-bars-former-president-will-remain-force-be-reckoned-lula-goes-jail"target="_blank">The Economist</a>,...
2018-09-11
Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva?
2018-04-18
[["2018-04-18", 1.0], ["2018-04-18", 0.9], ["2018-04-18", 0.95], ["2018-04-18", 0.875], ["2018-04-19", 0.85], ["2018-04-19", 0.95], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.98], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.965], ["2018-04-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/981
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.005], ["2018-07...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/366
The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (<a href="http://time.com/4561509/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-protests/" target = "_blank">Time</a>,<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2016/10/28/political-risk-anal...
2017-07-06
Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?
2016-12-13
[["2016-12-13", 1.0], ["2016-12-13", 0.5], ["2016-12-13", 0.21], ["2016-12-13", 0.28], ["2016-12-13", 0.4], ["2016-12-14", 0.2], ["2016-12-14", 0.15], ["2016-12-14", 0.135], ["2016-12-15", 0.12], ["2016-12-15", 0.135], ["2016-12-15", 0.175], ["2016-12-15", 0.18], ["2016-12-15", 0.19], ["2016-12-15", 0.2], ["2016-12-16"...
["http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-protests-economic-crisis-what-going-n755306", "https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/venezuelan-presidents-opponents-lay-siege-air-213206741.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/venezuela-s-supreme-court-takes-over-national-assembly-duties...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/620
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.01], ["2017-09-29", 0.28], ["2017-09-29", 0.285], ["2017-09-30", 0.04], ["2017-09-30", 0.04], ["2017-10-01", 0.06], ["2017-10-01", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.135], ["2017-10-02", 0.015], ["2017-10-02", 0.335], ["2017-10-02", 0.45], ["2017-10-02", 0.58], ["2017-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-20
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/539
For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" are any of the car brands or whole car companies identified in this <a href = "http://www.visualcapitalist.com/14-companies-control-entire-auto-industry/"target="_blank">infographic</a>. Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will ...
2018-07-24
Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?
2017-07-21
[["2017-07-22", 0.2], ["2017-07-22", 0.58], ["2017-07-22", 0.68], ["2017-07-22", 0.8], ["2017-07-23", 0.52], ["2017-07-23", 0.635], ["2017-07-23", 0.77], ["2017-07-23", 0.835], ["2017-07-24", 0.835], ["2017-07-24", 0.7], ["2017-07-24", 0.675], ["2017-07-25", 0.6], ["2017-07-25", 0.45], ["2017-07-25", 0.35], ["2017-07-2...
["https://www.livescience.com/49594-electric-fuel-cell-vehicles-explainer.html", "https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2017/01/global-automotive-executive-survey-2017.pdf", "http://www.visualcapitalist.com/14-companies-control-entire-auto-industry/", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/07/how-gree...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2015-11-26
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/37
There is wide speculation about whether Vice President Biden will seek the Democratic nomination (http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/politics/biden-florida-president-campaign/ , http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/is-joe-biden-running-for-president/387115/ ). Please note that Thanksgiving in the United St...
2015-11-30
Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?
2015-09-14
[["2015-09-14", 0.675], ["2015-09-14", 0.625], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.6], ["2015-09-15", 0.545], ["2015-09-15", 0.365], ["2015-09-15", 0.315], ["2015-09-15", 0.22], ["2015-09-15", 0.235], ["2015-09-15", 0.22], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.235], ["2015...
["https://youtu.be/1BsCgxZHDiI", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/us/politics/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president.html?referer=http://www.google.com.au/search?q=biden&amp;oq=bid&amp;gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.1.2.0i131l3j0l2.1812.2770.0.4810.4.3.0.1.1.0.358.1011.3-3.3.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..0.4.105...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/985
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.185], ["2018-06-27", 0.195], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.125], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.12], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1086
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2020-03-18
Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
2018-12-28
[["2018-12-28", 0.27], ["2018-12-28", 0.21], ["2018-12-28", 0.215], ["2018-12-29", 0.205], ["2018-12-29", 0.21], ["2018-12-31", 0.185], ["2018-12-31", 0.17], ["2019-01-02", 0.085], ["2019-01-03", 0.03], ["2019-01-03", 0.015], ["2019-01-04", 0.015], ["2019-01-04", 0.03], ["2019-01-04", 0.055], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["20...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/515
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.075], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.03], ["2017-07-02", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-...
["http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/asia-and-australia/1.809975?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/myanmar-laying-landmines-bangladesh-border-reports-170906014211124.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/violence-lead-exodus-300000-rohingya-170907024358023.html", ...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2019-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1075
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2020-03-18
Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2018-12-28
[["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.055], ["2019-01-01", 0.055], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.01], ["2019-01-02", 0.005], ["2019-01-03", 0.01], ["2019-01-03", 0.005], ["2019-01-04", 0.005], ["2019-01...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/237
The victory of the "leave" campaign in the United Kingdom's June referendum has spurred calls for similar votes in other EU member states (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36615879" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Hollan...
2017-07-06
Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?
2016-07-12
[["2016-07-12", 0.725], ["2016-07-12", 0.65], ["2016-07-12", 0.0], ["2016-07-12", 0.05], ["2016-07-12", 0.09], ["2016-07-12", 0.08], ["2016-07-12", 0.07], ["2016-07-12", 0.09], ["2016-07-13", 0.11], ["2016-07-13", 0.12], ["2016-07-13", 0.1], ["2016-07-13", 0.2], ["2016-07-13", 0.125], ["2016-07-13", 0.15], ["2016-07-13...
["http://nltimes.nl/2016/06/21/majority-dutch-also-want-referendum-eu-membership", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21148282", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-leaders-urged-stick-together-9753827", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-periphery-debt-market-welcomes-new-member-france-1487604548?mod=e2fb"...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-06-04
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/681
In 2015, the <a href = "https://www.courts.state.co.us/Courts/Court_of_Appeals/Opinion/2015/14CA1351-PD.pdf"target="_blank">Colorado Court of Appeals</a><a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/masterpiece-cakeshop-ltd-v-colorado-civil-rights-commn/"target="_blank"> ruled</a> that Jack Phillips, owner of M...
2018-06-05
In Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, will the Supreme Court rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding violates any of his First Amendment rights?
2017-11-03
[["2017-11-03", 0.4], ["2017-11-03", 0.125], ["2017-11-03", 0.51], ["2017-11-03", 0.605], ["2017-11-03", 0.135], ["2017-11-03", 0.35], ["2017-11-03", 0.235], ["2017-11-03", 0.325], ["2017-11-03", 0.3], ["2017-11-03", 0.275], ["2017-11-03", 0.2], ["2017-11-03", 0.2], ["2017-11-03", 0.225], ["2017-11-03", 0.25], ["2017-1...
["https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/938084955242065920", "http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-bakersfield-baker-20180207-story.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/08/us/wedding-cake-ruling-trnd/index.html", "https://www.quora.com/How-do-you-feel-about-the-Supreme-Court-case-involving-the-Masterpiece-Cake-Sho...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/973
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.07], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.055], ["2018-06-28", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-30", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.02], ["201...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-03-24
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137
In January 2016, the U.S. imposed new sanctions in response to Iran's October ballistic missile test (<a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0322.aspx" target = "_blank">Treasury Department</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/18/world/middleeast/three-freed-americans-depart-i...
2016-03-28
Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?
2016-02-09
[["2016-02-09", 0.15], ["2016-02-09", 0.3], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.045], ["2016-02-09", 0.12], ["2016-02-09", 0.19], ["2016-02-09", 0.175], ["2016-02-09", 0.275], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-09", 0.2], ["2016-02-10", 0.125], ["2016-02-10...
["http://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/corker-iran-testing-will-of-us-and-international-community-after-second-straight-day-of-ballistic-missile-launches", "http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/government-just-charged-iranian-hackers-major-cyberattacks-us", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-08-28
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/880
Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/joe-arpaio-senate-arizona.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics...
2018-09-04
Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?
2018-01-24
[["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.175], ["2018-01-24", 0.25], ["2018-01-24", 0.4], ["2018-01-24", 0.225], ["2018-01-24", 0.2], ["2018-01-25", 0.06], ["2018-01-25", 0.02], ["2018-01-25", 0.04], ["2018-01-25", 0.04], ["2018-01-25", 0.075], ["2018-01-25", 0.05], ["2018-01-25", 0.05], ["2018-01-25", 0.055], ["2018-01...
["https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/02/joe-arpaio-senate-campaign-2018-profile-216922", "https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/82/Congressional-Primaries", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/01/joe-arpaio-pleads-ignorance-after-recent-interview-with-anti-semitic-weekly-it-was-his-f...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/476
In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Justices of the Supreme Court by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y"...
2018-01-16
Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?
2017-04-28
[["2017-04-28", 0.35], ["2017-04-29", 0.54], ["2017-04-29", 0.4], ["2017-04-29", 0.61], ["2017-04-29", 0.63], ["2017-04-30", 0.655], ["2017-04-30", 0.58], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.6], ["2017-04-30", 0.5], ["2017-05-01", 0.25], ["2017-05-01", 0.3], ["2017-05-01", 0.3], ["2017-05-01", ...
["https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nuking-the-filibuster-may-hurt-republicans-in-the-long-run/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/332058-senators-on-both-sides-are-friends-of-the-filibuster", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/trump-lobbies-on-twitter-to-eliminate-legislative-filibus...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/245
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Mali as the 13th country at the greatest risk of an...
2017-03-30
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?
2016-07-19
[["2016-07-19", 0.25], ["2016-07-19", 0.12], ["2016-07-19", 0.06], ["2016-07-19", 0.075], ["2016-07-19", 0.075], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-19", 0.0], ["2016-07-20", 0.0], ["2016-07-20", 0.025], ["2016-07-20", 0.02], ["2016-07-20", 0.02], ["2016-07-20", 0.05], ["2016-07-20", 0.08], ["2016-07-20...
["http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/mali/238-central-mali-an-uprising-in-the-making.aspx", "http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/crisiswatch-database.aspx?CountryIDs=%7b00784553-1A92-4A05-8825-9235786CF9BC%7d&amp;StartDate=20150715&amp;EndDate=20160716", "http://www.dailymai...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/972
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.035], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.99], ["2018-06-28", 0.495], ["2018-06-28", 0.5], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/471
There are concerns about a pandemic caused by the spread of avian flu (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/health/bird-flu-china.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Both the CDC (<a href = "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/current-situation.html"target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href = "https:/...
2019-01-02
Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019?
2017-04-18
[["2017-04-18", 0.125], ["2017-04-18", 0.25], ["2017-04-19", 0.085], ["2017-04-19", 0.075], ["2017-04-19", 0.05], ["2017-04-20", 0.05], ["2017-04-20", 0.07], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.075], ["2017-04-21", 0.2], ["2017-04-22", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.04], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.035], ["2017-0...
["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19508439", "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic#Phases", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/08/health/next-flu-pandemic.html", "http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-086173/en/", "htt...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-11-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/259
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Pat Toomey (R - PA) won his bid for reelection on November 8. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/f...
2016-11-17
Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?
2016-08-12
[["2016-08-12", 0.16], ["2016-08-12", 0.04], ["2016-08-12", 0.4], ["2016-08-12", 0.41], ["2016-08-12", 0.425], ["2016-08-13", 0.4], ["2016-08-13", 0.405], ["2016-08-13", 0.4], ["2016-08-13", 0.4], ["2016-08-13", 0.4], ["2016-08-13", 0.4], ["2016-08-13", 0.39], ["2016-08-14", 0.39], ["2016-08-14", 0.36], ["2016-08-14", ...
["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/poll-pennsylvania-senate-race-virtually-tied-katie-mcginty-pat-toomey", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/election/2016/us-senate", "https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/reelect.php", "http://www.monmo...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/148
This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Forces continue to close in on Aleppo but as yet have not taken control (<a href="http://news.sky.com/story/1718716/syrian-government-forces-close-in-on-aleppo" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/russian-airstrikes-hit-rebel-held-aleppo-as-battle-rages/a-...
2016-07-05
Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?
2016-03-01
[["2016-03-01", 0.625], ["2016-03-01", 0.475], ["2016-03-01", 0.55], ["2016-03-01", 0.525], ["2016-03-01", 0.675], ["2016-03-02", 0.705], ["2016-03-02", 0.7], ["2016-03-02", 0.73], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.75], ["2016-03-02", 0.725], ["2016-03-02", 0.68], ["2016...
["http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/06/al-qaeda-and-allies-gain-more-ground-in-aleppo-province.php", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/06/16/russia-says-48-hour-truce-reached-in-syrias-aleppo/85977808/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-idUSKCN0X428P", "http://www.reuters....
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-11-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/608
At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period. The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count: Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and/or localized disruption of s...
2018-03-16
Will North Korea execute and/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?
2017-09-19
[["2017-09-19", 0.99], ["2017-09-19", 0.275], ["2017-09-19", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.9], ["2017-09-20", 0.725], ["2017-09-20", 0.33], ["2017-09-21", 0.01], ["2017-09-21", 0.675], ["2017-09-21", 0.75], ["2017-09-21", 0.8], ["2017-09-21", 0.775], ["2017-09-21", 0.6], ["2017-09-21", 0.675], ["2017-09-21", 0.675], ["2017-0...
["https://www.iafrikan.com/2017/11/06/iox-cable-ltd-to-provide-first-subsea-route-between-u-s-and-india-via-brazil-and-south-africa/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/nato-to-boost-use-of-cyber-weaponry-to-combat-russia", "https://securingtomorrow.mcafee.com/mcafee-labs/android-malware-appears-linked-to-lazar...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/984
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
2018-06-27
[["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.6], ["2018-06-27", 0.635], ["2018-06-27", 0.485], ["2018-06-27", 0.385], ["2018-06-27", 0.09], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.19], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.165], ["2018-06-28", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.275], ["2018-06-28", 0.3], ["2018-0...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/447
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-04
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.6], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.4], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01",...
["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/myanmar-arrests-buddhists-accused-targeting-muslims-170512220527691.html", "http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-rohingya-crisis2/", "http://www.atimes.com/article/myanmars-peace-process-descends-farce/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/opinion/a-cruel-a...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1039
A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption for self-driving vehicles without human controls (<a href="http://energyfuse.org/autonomous-vehicle-exemptions-explained/" target="_blank">The Fuse</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/49/30113...
2020-01-03
Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?
2018-11-16
[["2018-11-16", 1.0], ["2018-11-16", 0.625], ["2018-11-17", 0.78], ["2018-11-17", 0.68], ["2018-11-17", 0.58], ["2018-11-17", 0.64], ["2018-11-18", 0.7], ["2018-11-18", 0.7], ["2018-11-18", 0.74], ["2018-11-18", 0.78], ["2018-11-18", 0.765], ["2018-11-18", 0.765], ["2018-11-18", 0.725], ["2018-11-19", 0.7], ["2018-11-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/698
Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including ongoing investigations (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/06/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-corruption-case.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/world/middleeast/israel-rivlin-netanyahu-demo...
2018-10-03
Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections?
2017-11-21
[["2017-11-21", 0.075], ["2017-11-21", 0.125], ["2017-11-22", 0.14], ["2017-11-22", 0.155], ["2017-11-22", 0.15], ["2017-11-22", 0.15], ["2017-11-23", 0.15], ["2017-11-23", 0.2], ["2017-11-24", 0.15], ["2017-11-25", 0.125], ["2017-11-26", 0.15], ["2017-11-26", 0.15], ["2017-11-26", 0.125], ["2017-11-27", 0.2], ["2017-1...
["http://jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain/230810/is-bibi-in-trouble/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/5-times-israeli-politicians-said-theres-nothing-to-it-and-ended-up-in-jail/", "https://www.ft.com/content/42ccd414-1879-11e8-9376-4a6390addb44", "http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Presumed-innocent-542675", "https://www.haar...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/514
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.055], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-04", 0.05], ["2017-07-04",...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/933
Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (<a href = "https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download"target="_blank">U.S Department of Justice<...
2019-01-02
Before 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel?
2018-04-13
[["2018-04-13", 0.75], ["2018-04-13", 0.7], ["2018-04-13", 0.37], ["2018-04-14", 0.4], ["2018-04-14", 0.4], ["2018-04-14", 0.55], ["2018-04-14", 0.425], ["2018-04-14", 0.475], ["2018-04-14", 0.55], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.495], ["2018-04-14", 0.395], ["2018-04-14", 0.435], ["2018-04...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-11-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/275
This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, winner of the 2016 presidential election, did not win the popular vote. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) <sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https:...
2016-11-17
Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?
2016-09-02
[["2016-09-02", 0.35], ["2016-09-02", 0.09], ["2016-09-02", 0.12], ["2016-09-02", 0.09], ["2016-09-02", 0.085], ["2016-09-02", 0.23], ["2016-09-02", 0.23], ["2016-09-02", 0.2], ["2016-09-02", 0.15], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-03", 0.05], ["2016-09-0...
["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus", "http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/emails-and-influence-investigating-russias-attack-on-the-u-s-political-system/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_L._K._Smith", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/317081", "https://en.wikiped...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/481
The White House’s call for an overhaul of the tax code includes a repeal of the federal estate tax (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-to-unveil-proposal-for-massive-tax-cut/2017/04/26/2097fe42-2a94-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Temporary repeals w...
2018-01-11
Before 1 January 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax?
2017-05-09
[["2017-05-09", 0.99], ["2017-05-09", 0.055], ["2017-05-09", 0.5], ["2017-05-09", 0.6], ["2017-05-10", 0.34], ["2017-05-10", 0.35], ["2017-05-10", 0.35], ["2017-05-10", 0.185], ["2017-05-10", 0.2], ["2017-05-10", 0.075], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.35], ["2017-05-11", 0.375], ["2017-05-12", 0.425], ["2017-05...
["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/07/12/the-finance-202-tax-overhaul-at-mercy-of-budget-negotiators/59652d94e9b69b7071abcb11/", "https://www.majorityleader.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2017_ANNUAL_CALENDAR.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-idUSKCN1BA14X",...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/561
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently proclaimed martial law in Mindanao and nearby islands (<a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/67736a20-3fd6-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/duterte-places-philippine-island-of-mindanao-under-martial-law-wh...
2018-07-02
Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide?
2017-08-15
[["2017-08-15", 0.23], ["2017-08-16", 0.75], ["2017-08-16", 0.55], ["2017-08-16", 0.35], ["2017-08-16", 0.275], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.11], ["2017-08-17", 0.1], ["2017-08-18", 0.145], ["2017-08-19", 0.145], ["2017-08-19", 0.15], ["2017-08-20", 0.15], ["2017-08-21", 0.125], ["2017-0...
["http://www.atimes.com/article/duterte-reaches-unlimited-unending-power/", "http://opinion.inquirer.net/106651/ending-martial-law#ixzz4r0045DG0", "https://psa.gov.ph/content/mindanao-comprised-about-24-percent-philippines-total-population", "https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/272485.pdf", "http://www.philsta...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/840
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
2017-12-28
[["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.525], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-29", 0.275], ["2017-12-30", 0.235], ["2017-12-30", 0.11], ["2017-12-31", 0.11], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-10-17
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/138
This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. The State Department has not removed Iran from its list of state sponsors of terror. (<a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>) Since 1984, Iran has been on the U.S. Department of State's State Spons...
2016-10-18
Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?
2016-02-09
[["2016-02-09", 0.025], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-09", 0.035], ["2016-02-09", 0.03], ["2016-02-09", 0.025], ["2016-02-09", 0.01], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.0], ["2016-02-09", 0.05], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-09", 0.04], ["2016-02-10", 0.05], ["2016-02-10", 0.045], ["2016-02-...
["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/us/politics/iran-embassy-state-department.html", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/08/analysis-irgc-implicated-in-arming-yemeni-houthis-with-missiles.php", "http://thewire.in/50922/us-lawmakers-challenge-iran-nuclear-deal-fresh-legislation/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/932
The Russian Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms, but there has been speculation that future constitutional changes could allow Putin to remain in power past 2024 (<a href="https://apnews.com/f447c4e387a54298925d307850f68468/Putin%27s-dilemma:-Scrap-term-limits-or-choose-a-successor, https://www.ft.c...
2020-01-03
Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term?
2018-04-11
[["2018-04-11", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.355], ["2018-04-12", 0.1], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-13", 0.55], ["2018-04-13", 0.64], ["2018-04-13", 0.72], ["2018-04-14", 0.775], ["2018-04-14", 0.8], ["2018-04-14", 0.575], ["2018-04-14", 0.35], ["2018-04-14", 0.275], ["2018-04-14", 0.2], ["2018-04-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-03-19
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1004
In 2014, the widows of US naval servicemen who died of cancer allegedly caused by exposure to asbestos lost a civil suit against Air and Liquid Systems Corp. (<a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/asbestos-liability-case-picked-up-by-supreme-court/" target="_blank">Court House News</a>). The Third Circuit reversed th...
2019-03-19
In Air and Liquid Systems Corp. v. Devries, will the Supreme Court rule that Air and Liquid Systems Corp. can be held liable for negligence in exposing service members to asbestos?
2018-09-21
[["2018-09-21", 0.15], ["2018-09-22", 0.1], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.045], ["2018-09-22", 0.095], ["2018-09-23", 0.09], ["2018-09-23", 0.06], ["2018-09-23", 0.01], ["2018-09-23", 0.015], ["2018-09-23", 0.035], ["2018-09-24", 0.035], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-12-27
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/646
As North African states struggle with declining revenues, a number are considering issuing sharia compliant non-interest bonds to attract more investors (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/algeria-politics-idUSL8N1JH47A"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.gulf-times.com/story/553167/A-new-world-o...
2017-12-28
Before 27 December 2017, will Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia issue sharia-compliant government bonds?
2017-10-09
[["2017-10-11", 0.75], ["2017-10-11", 0.01], ["2017-10-11", 0.28], ["2017-10-11", 0.45], ["2017-10-11", 0.175], ["2017-10-11", 0.03], ["2017-10-11", 0.03], ["2017-10-11", 0.015], ["2017-10-11", 0.315], ["2017-10-12", 0.3], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.025], ["2017-10-12", 0.03], ["2017-1...
["http://www3.asiainsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Article?id=40999&amp;Type=MiddleEast", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/595758", "https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21724416-borrower-refuses-pay-challenging-sharia-compliance-its-bond-infant", "http://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DZA", ...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1008
<p>The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a seri...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.09], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-09-30", 0.07], ["2018-09-30", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-01", 0.065], ["2018-10-02", 0.09], ["2018-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-02
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/772
Australia's former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is running in a by-election scheduled for 2 December 2017, a race which may determine which party holds the majority in Australia's House of Representatives (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/world/australia/citizenship-ruling.html"target="_blank">NY Ti...
2017-12-08
Will Barnaby Joyce win the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.725], ["2017-11-29", 0.79], ["2017-11-29", 0.865], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-1...
["https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/12/02/new-england-election-landslide-win-expected-joyce-polls-open", "http://www.aec.gov.au/new-england/counting-process.htm", "http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-12-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/753
On November 13, 2017, foreign ministers of the European Union (EU) established the legal basis for imposing sanctions on Venezuelan government officials in order to pressure the Venezuelan government to strengthen the rule of law and legitimate democratic elections (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/world/a...
2018-01-02
Will the European Union announce the imposition of a travel ban or seizure of assets of a Venezuelan government official between 30 November and 31 December?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.275], ["2017-11-30", 0....
["http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-992f-Latin-America-rejects-threats-to-Venezuela", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/?dateFrom=&amp;dateTo=&amp;filters=2025", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/13/venezuela-eu-adopts-conclusions-and-targeted-sanctions/", "https://www.reuter...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
False
2015-12-03
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/82
This question has been voided. <br> <br> Outcome will be determined by data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). For a summary of last year's data, see: https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/early-promotions-online-shopping-and-improving-economy-changing-the-face-of . The NRF reported sales of $50.9 billion in ...
None
Will the National Retail Federation report that online and in-store spending for Thanksgiving weekend exceeded $50.9 billion?
2015-11-17
[["2015-11-17", 1.0], ["2015-11-17", 0.925], ["2015-11-17", 0.89], ["2015-11-17", 0.87], ["2015-11-17", 0.88], ["2015-11-17", 0.885], ["2015-11-17", 0.88], ["2015-11-17", 0.865], ["2015-11-17", 0.85], ["2015-11-17", 0.655], ["2015-11-17", 0.56], ["2015-11-17", 0.505], ["2015-11-17", 0.46], ["2015-11-17", 0.505], ["2015...
["http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/", "https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/thanksgiving-weekend-shopping-brings-big-store-and-online-crowds-according-nrf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/29/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN0TI0WB20151129", "https://nrf.com/sites/default/files/2014%20Black%20Friday%20Weekend%20-%20pr...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
Not resolved.
True
2017-12-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/759
On November 23, 2017, the Argentinian Navy confirmed that its missing submarine, the San Juan, had experienced an explosion near the location of its last contact. (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-argentina-missing-submarine-20171123-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "https...
2017-12-11
Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017?
2017-11-28
[["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.325], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.79], ["2017-11-30", 0.68], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-...
["http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/30/rescue-mission-for-argentine-submarine-crew-ends-search-for-sub-continues.html", "https://news.usni.org/2017/11/30/search-ended-for-missing-argentine-sub-survivors?utm_source=USNI+News&amp;utm_campaign=c5c313aebc-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-c5...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-12-06
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/797
On November 21, 2017, the company behind the Bitcoin cryptocurrency "tether" announced a hack resulting in a theft valued at $31,000,000 USD that was widely reported in the media (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/bitcoin-falls-after-31-million-theft-of-cryptocurrency-tether"target="_blank">...
2017-12-12
Will an individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017?
2017-11-29
[["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.08], ["2017-11-29", 0.04], ["2017-11-29", 0.075], ["2017-11-29", 0.405], ["2017-11-29", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.335], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-...
["https://twitter.com/Alpha_Miner/status/938509346601820160", "https://www.cnet.com/news/bitcoin-exchange-nicehash-loses-millions-to-hackers/", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/07/technology/nicehash-bitcoin-theft-hacking/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/27/technology/bitcoin-price-10000.html?emc=edit_mbe_201...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/509
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
2017-06-30
[["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.125], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.005], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.0], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-02", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.05], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-03", 0.015], ["2017-07-...
["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/rebel-group-vows-to-step-up-attacks-against-burundi-s-government", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-07-04/burundi-authorities-purging-army-on-ethnic-lines-rights-group"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2016-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96
After the November attacks in Paris, President Francois Hollande said that France is "at war" with the Islamic State and the French military intensified air strikes on IS targets in Syria (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/619784/Hollande-France-war-ISIS-Paris-attacks" target = "_blank">Daily Express</a>, ...
2016-04-01
Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?
2015-12-08
[["2015-12-08", 0.455], ["2015-12-08", 0.4], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.3], ["2015-12-08", 0.315], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-09", 0.53], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.575], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0...
["http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/03/05/453896/Syria-France-Ceasefire-Terrorists-Colmain", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.voanews.com/content/sixty-five-hundred-coalition-troops-in-iraq-us-wants-more/3172721.html", "http://www.janes.com/article/58361/french-conduct-firs...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-04-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/830
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
2017-12-28
[["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.03], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.08], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31",...
["https://themoscowtimes.com/news/state-run-news-station-accused-of-making-up-child-crucifixion-37289", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-drugs-war-death-squads", "https://www.elsaelsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/jaw-drop.jpg", "http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/18/drug-wa...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/456
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-05
Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
2017-03-31
[["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.04], ["2017-03-31", 0.045], ["2017-03-31", 0.525], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.195], ["2017-04-0...
["http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ACLED_Africa_Country-Reports_Ethiopia_June-2017_pdf.pdf", "https://theglobalobservatory.org/2017/06/ethiopia-protests-oromo-addis-ababa-master-plan/"]
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1021
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ...
2020-01-05
Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
2018-09-28
[["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.025], ["2018-09-29", 0.025], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.025], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.025], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-03", 0.05], ["2018-10-04", 0.025], ["2018-10-06", 0.035], ["2018...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2016-03-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/79
<img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Russia announced in 2014 that it would not participate in the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, citing concerns that its views would be ignored (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-...
2016-04-01
Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?
2015-11-17
[["2015-11-17", 0.18], ["2015-11-17", 0.18], ["2015-11-17", 0.2], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.12], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19...
["http://www.therussophile.org/foreign-ministry-spokesperson-maria-zakharovas-reply-to-a-media-question-on-russian-assessments-of-the-upcoming-fourth-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-march-31-april-1-2016.html/", "http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/12/03-three-tasks-for-nuclear-security-sum...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1093
The EU continues to face a number of challenges, including populism and debt crises in a number of member states (<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/11/donald-tusk-warnspoland-could-hold-brexit-style-eu-referendum/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/01/30/svex...
2020-01-02
Before 1 January 2020, will any EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?
2019-01-04
[["2019-01-05", 0.01], ["2019-01-05", 0.015], ["2019-01-06", 0.02], ["2019-01-06", 0.015], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.13], ["2019-01-06", 0.1], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.05], ["2019-01-06", 0.1], ["2019-01-06", 0.1], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06", 0.15], ["2019-01-06...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/417
This question will close as "yes" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX...
2018-01-08
Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017?
2017-02-16
[["2017-02-16", 0.05], ["2017-02-16", 0.085], ["2017-02-16", 0.125], ["2017-02-16", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.08], ["2017-02-17", 0.085], ["2017-02-17", 0.075], ["2017-02-17", 0.175], ["2017-02-17", 0.2], ["2017-02-17", 0.275], ["2017-02-18", 0.215], ["2017-02-18", 0.28], ["2017-02-18", 0.28], ["2017-...
["https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#Q1", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/nobel-economist-thaler-says-he-s-nervous-about-stock-market", "http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm", "http://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/dailypricehistory.xls", "https://www.inves...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-09-08
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/473
<b><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/politics/hurricane-aid-debt-ceiling.html?mcubz=0" target="_blank">The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised.</a> This question closed as "Yes", with an end date of 8 September 2017.</b> On 15 March 2017, the U.S. government's suspension of the debt limit expired (<a href...
2017-09-21
Will the U.S. federal debt ceiling be raised or suspended before 1 December 2017?
2017-04-28
[["2017-04-28", 0.95], ["2017-04-28", 0.965], ["2017-04-28", 0.995], ["2017-04-28", 0.99], ["2017-04-29", 0.745], ["2017-04-29", 0.53], ["2017-04-29", 0.55], ["2017-04-29", 0.76], ["2017-04-29", 0.975], ["2017-04-29", 0.98], ["2017-04-29", 0.99], ["2017-04-29", 0.99], ["2017-04-30", 0.99], ["2017-04-30", 0.99], ["2017-...
["https://www.popsugar.co.uk/celebrity/Why-Does-Sansa-Have-Littlefinger-Killed-43943804?utm_medium=redirect&amp;utm_campaign=US:GB&amp;utm_source=www.google.co.uk", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-debtceiling-idUSKBN1A52A5?il=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/01/debt-ceiling-talks-b...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-03-26
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/349
Leung Chun-ying, the incumbent, is unpopular among democrats and "localists." The Hong Kong chief executive election will be held on 26 March 2017 (<a href="http://www.scmp.com/topics/hong-kong-chief-executive-election-2017" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required...
2017-03-29
Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong?
2016-11-15
[["2016-11-15", 0.265], ["2016-11-15", 0.18], ["2016-11-15", 0.445], ["2016-11-16", 0.25], ["2016-11-16", 0.24], ["2016-11-16", 0.1], ["2016-11-16", 0.125], ["2016-11-17", 0.15], ["2016-11-18", 0.195], ["2016-11-18", 0.25], ["2016-11-19", 0.29], ["2016-11-19", 0.35], ["2016-11-20", 0.35], ["2016-11-21", 0.35], ["2016-1...
["http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2188618-analysis-behind-the-xi-jinping-leung-chun-ying-meeting-at-apec/?utm_expid=21082672-18.dmPUWQm0QDq0pZBHW0FDfA.0&amp;utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fduckduckgo.com%2F", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world/asia/hong-kong-cy-leung-reelection.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-as...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-10-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/599
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href="http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/" target="_bla...
2017-11-07
Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Mozambique in October 2017?
2017-09-13
[["2017-09-13", 0.35], ["2017-09-13", 0.45], ["2017-09-13", 0.225], ["2017-09-13", 0.275], ["2017-09-13", 0.275], ["2017-09-13", 0.36], ["2017-09-13", 0.05], ["2017-09-13", 0.05], ["2017-09-13", 0.205], ["2017-09-13", 0.36], ["2017-09-14", 0.45], ["2017-09-14", 0.67], ["2017-09-14", 0.66], ["2017-09-14", 0.71], ["2017-...
["http://allafrica.com/stories/201709210890.html", "http://www.africanews.com/2017/10/05/protests-after-assassination-of-mozambique-mayor-on-day-of-peace/", "http://www.dw.com/pt-002/populares-incendeiam-casa-de-comandante-da-pol%C3%ADcia-no-norte-de-mo%C3%A7ambique/a-40781795", "https://tradingeconomics.com/mozambique...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2020-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1055
A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (<a...
2020-01-03
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?
2018-12-07
[["2018-12-07", 0.02], ["2018-12-08", 0.075], ["2018-12-08", 0.2], ["2018-12-09", 0.2], ["2018-12-10", 0.1], ["2018-12-11", 0.05], ["2018-12-12", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-14", 0.22], ["2018-12-14", 0.15], ["2018-12-16", 0.11], ["2018-12-17", 0.155], ["2018-12-18", 0.115], ["2018-12-1...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2019-05-29
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1088
Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download" target="_blank">U.S Department of Justice</...
2019-06-24
Will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel before 1 January 2020?
2019-01-04
[["2019-01-04", 1.0], ["2019-01-05", 0.9], ["2019-01-05", 0.97], ["2019-01-05", 0.92], ["2019-01-06", 0.795], ["2019-01-06", 0.79], ["2019-01-06", 0.68], ["2019-01-06", 0.735], ["2019-01-06", 0.575], ["2019-01-06", 0.75], ["2019-01-06", 0.75], ["2019-01-06", 0.75], ["2019-01-06", 0.725], ["2019-01-06", 0.75], ["2019-01...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/490
For the purposes of this question, a lethal attack is one that results in one US fatality. In recent months, the US Navy has had hostile encounters with Iranian naval forces (<a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/its-getting-more-dangerous-us-navy-ships-gulf-511343"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.c...
2018-01-02
Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?
2017-05-23
[["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.03], ["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.045], ["2017-05-23", 0.065], ["2017-05-23", 0.05], ["2017-05-24", 0.065], ["2017-05-24", 0.04], ["2017-05-24", 0.05], ["2017-05-24", 0.045], ["2017-05-24", 0.05], ["2017-05-25", 0.05], ["2017-05-25", 0.045], ["2017-05-25", 0.065], ["201...
["https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf", "http://www.nbcnews.com/card/houthi-rebels-use-another-unmanned-boat-bomb-against-saudis-n751651", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40871025", "https://www.historyguy.com/attacks_on_us_naval_ships.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-us-gulf-tension-idUS...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/413
The U.S. Department of Transportation and the state of California have high hopes for the California High-Speed Rail project, commonly known as the 'bullet train'. However, budget questions and construction delays have cast doubt over the project (<a href = "http://www.hsr.ca.gov"target="_blank">California High Speed R...
2017-07-05
Before 1 July 2017, will new federal funding be approved for the California High-Speed Rail Authority's "bullet train" project?
2017-02-16
[["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.025], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.015], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.045], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-1...
["https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-joint-resolution/99/text", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/s2844/BILLS-114s2844pcs.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr5394/BILLS-114hr5394rh.pdf", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-s-pension-megafund-to-invest-in-US-infrastru...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2018-01-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/626
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series...
2019-12-09
Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
2017-09-29
[["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.875], ["2017-09-29", 0.8], ["2017-09-30", 0.435], ["2017-09-30", 0.51], ["2017-09-30", 0.975], ["2017-10-01", 1.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.95], ["2017-10-01", 0.95], ["2017-10-01", 0.97], ["2017-10-01", 0.595], ["2017-10-01", 0.895], ["2017-10-02", 0.9], ["2017-10-0...
["https://navalny.feldman.photo/events/63/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/569565", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists/u-n-chief-says-arrest-of-reuters-journalists-shows-erosion-of-press-freedom-in-myanmar-idUSKBN1E8183", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2017/oct/17/drone-footag...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
False
2017-10-31
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/590
The question will resolve as "yes" if the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities <a href="http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html" target="_blank">Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for whi...
None
Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a state actor in Somalia (SOM) that starts between 1 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?
2017-09-06
[["2017-09-06", 0.9], ["2017-09-06", 0.0], ["2017-09-06", 0.3], ["2017-09-06", 0.175], ["2017-09-06", 0.05], ["2017-09-06", 0.085], ["2017-09-06", 0.12], ["2017-09-07", 0.28], ["2017-09-07", 0.24], ["2017-09-07", 0.24], ["2017-09-07", 0.17], ["2017-09-07", 0.17], ["2017-09-07", 0.095], ["2017-09-07", 0.11], ["2017-09-0...
["http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090086.html", "https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/33929/statement-high-representative-vice-p", "http://dlvr.it/PqPWWd", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ACLED_Conflict-Trends-Report_No.61-September-2017_pdf.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/com...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
Not resolved.
True
2018-06-14
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/893
Last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit ruled that Minnesota Statute ¤ 211B.11, banning political apparel at the polling place, did not violate the federal constitution (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = ...
2018-06-15
In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?
2018-02-28
[["2018-02-28", 0.35], ["2018-02-28", 0.12], ["2018-02-28", 0.06], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.075], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03...
{}
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
1.0
True
2017-11-30
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/500
China's National Congress will meet in autumn 2017 to select leaders for the new term. Wang Qishan has served on the Politburo Standing Committee since 2012 (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/world/asia/xi-jinping-china-retirement-rules.html" target="_blank">NY Times 3/2/2017</a> , <a href="https://www.wsj.co...
2017-12-04
Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?
2017-06-13
[["2017-06-13", 0.65], ["2017-06-13", 0.75], ["2017-06-14", 0.7], ["2017-06-14", 0.67], ["2017-06-15", 0.71], ["2017-06-15", 0.75], ["2017-06-15", 0.75], ["2017-06-15", 0.625], ["2017-06-15", 0.8], ["2017-06-16", 0.8], ["2017-06-16", 0.85], ["2017-06-16", 0.92], ["2017-06-17", 0.92], ["2017-06-18", 0.885], ["2017-06-18...
["https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/China-s-party-congress-2017/China-s-anti-graft-czar-Wang-Qishan-to-bow-out-party-sources-say", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/602234", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/597677", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/594905", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epocht...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0
True
2017-07-01
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/236
In the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union (EU) membership, a majority of voters in Scotland backed the losing side. The United Kingdom's planned exit from the EU has caused some Scottish leaders to call for another vote on independence, less than two years after nearly 56 percent of voters cast bal...
2017-07-06
Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?
2016-07-12
[["2016-07-12", 0.76], ["2016-07-12", 0.55], ["2016-07-12", 0.2], ["2016-07-12", 0.19], ["2016-07-13", 0.2], ["2016-07-13", 0.25], ["2016-07-13", 0.125], ["2016-07-13", 0.175], ["2016-07-14", 0.2], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-14", 0.18], ["2016-07-15", 0.15], ["2016-07-16", 0.15], ["2016-07-16...
["http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/will-general-election-postponed-will-campaigning-start/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-referendum-theresa-may-blocks-second-nicola-sturgeon-independence-bid-latest-a7633131.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/490303", "http://www.reute...
binary
Not applicable/available for this question.
gjopen
0.0