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7b2958d2f727523fd79bdbaacab50107 | Hi. Good morning, and congratulations on a very strong quarter, exciting things coming up. So with regards to ONC201, the update that's coming in the second half, can you talk about in terms of size and scope of the data that we'll actually be getting both in terms of the top line and then thereafter, as you mentioned,... | Yes. And maybe Allen and Josh can add to this if I miss something, but the size and scope will focus on the 50-patient group. Of course, in the background, there are more than 350 patients that will be relevant for the safety data that we're gathering that would be part of a potential submission so that work's going on... | direct | [
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8ef681cc0be556346d65b3a915d7a9f8 | Right. That's really helpful. And then just staying on the same topic, obviously, this is the registration-directed cohort, but the study that they're part of, I was just curious, what are your expectations with regards to the data coming out of the totality of those studies? Do you have any sense of when those would r... | No. No. That's really a big part of what we're doing over the next months is essentially the locking and the cleaning of the data that would support all of that, so not just the imaging and RANO assessment, but all of the other measures of clinical benefit and safety. So those are really coming together simultaneously.... | intermediate | [
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4ba55527663bbd959fb111b1f4e8c3b8 | Got it. And are you able to comment on what percentage of the patients make up the pediatric population versus the adults? | So if you look in general, we have a large proportion to pediatric patients throughout our development program. If you look in the registration cohort, there's only a handful of patients that are the PDH due to some of the discussion with FDA of who is going to be included in the registration cohort. | intermediate | [
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791d6d3cc7700c1bb88c19e685411913 | OK. Got it. And just switching over, you also have one in paraganglioma. It's an IST study. Josh, I was just curious, what percentage of the patients actually overexpress DRD2, and perhaps, could you comment a little bit about the addressable market and an indication? | So let me address the first point. You know, this is an investigator-initiated trial that was really signal searching. I'll highlight an update on that particular trial. We'll read out its notes at ASCO. So take note there. But as part of that investigator-initiated trial in order to enroll patients at a sufficient pac... | intermediate | [
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494e6fab8e2eaecb6570d89c76438f6b | So perhaps just a prescindy question to start off, maybe you can discuss the outside the US opportunities. I know I -- I've asked this before, but as we're getting close to the PDUFA date, I think it becomes more relevant. I believe that if you have FDA approval at that point you can market it overseas or at least fulf... | Yes. So you can imagine that as the NDA review processes winding down, we've pivoted our attention to be able to prepare essentially convert that submission to submissions in other geographies. Canada, Europe are the obvious next two targets. And then we'll kind of go beyond that as soon after. So we're essentially com... | direct | [
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966de55c8ac08a0fe7927561c4888d98 | Thanks, Mike. And perhaps just switching over to DSTAT in COVID-19, you had mentioned about the cohort three and 50 patients and the enrollment there, I'm just wondering maybe -- how long it will take to enroll those 50 patients. Do you have an idea of that now? And when we can see that data, and then what's your strat... | You really outlined the decision before us. I think it's the enrollment, as Allen mentioned, has been slow in the third cohort. And so I think by definition, in order to access that full 50 patient data set, we'd have to do something different. And what we do is going to be dependent on the data and kind of where we're... | intermediate | [
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073839723dc1d3fc9cdbaff467c633b1 | Hi there. Good morning, and thank you for taking the question. The first one on the request for proposal for VCV, is there a standardized timeline that these requests have to be out there before they can make a decision on the contract? Obviously, we don't know exactly what it's going to come, but is there a time that ... | I'll say the first one on the RFP, they're part of the outcome of the sources sought requests, which they already issued as to see who responds and qualifies. It's our view that we're the only ones that qualify and as such the RFP is essentially targeted toward us. And so it makes that process a little bit simpler if i... | direct | [
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48c20f30abd5c7a5f037f731a7f54b07 | Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question, and congratulations on pushing forward on all forefronts, at least. One question, on the glioma trial, if you want to take a few minutes to benchmark what the standard of care, physicians' choice, response rate, or clinical benefits should we expect? As you know, ... | Great. I'll start with the glioma. Maybe I'll -- Allen and Josh, I'm not sure which you want to start. Maybe, Josh, you give a little bit of history relative to the trials that we've done and how those patients have been treated historically, and then Allen can follow that. Yes. Happy to give that a shot. So I think an... | intermediate | [
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9da67bea21d736466b0f51125450a413 | Maybe first off, my question is on La Yaqui Grande. Good to see the positive decision that was made two days ago and a very strong IRR. But could you remind us in terms of the capex profile, the timing, I think you touched on it and how that kind of fits in in terms of the capex needs for Island Gold Phase 3? | I think, we announced in the press release the total capital for the project is about USD137 million, I believe. We should spend between $10 and $15 million of that this year and that's the reason for the slight increase in Mulatos capital guidance for the remainder -- for the second half of 2020, and we spend up to $1... | direct | [
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21d282faffaaed197f66688e0e2b0488 | And how does that -- so that the bulk of that capex is going to come before you need to spend any kind of money on Island Gold? | That's right. I mean, we will start next year. We have some capital related to Phase 3, some growth capital in our Island budget for 2021, but net of that Island still generating $50 million, $60 million of free cash flow. Once La Yaqui Grande is built, you've got both Young-Davidson and Mulatos generating well north o... | direct | [
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51ca8f631d944f821390be777766d8c4 | And then, I'm not saying it's going to happen but certainly, Turkey, what if that comes back and what if you need to restart sort of construction in Turkey, how does that kind of fit into the picture in terms of capital allocation? | Yeah, I think from a spending perspective, it would be -- if we get the permit reinstated, it would be six to 12 months before we start heavily ramping up the spending and the project has a north of 100% IRR at these gold prices. So it's obviously something we'd want to go ahead with, with minimal additional capital. W... | direct | [
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89dc791584dda43f1a81aac5651126c7 | And maybe a bit more on the La Yaqui Grande here. As you mentioned in your press release, a lot of that ore is going to be replacing higher cost production coming from Mulatos, but is there any kind of scenario whereby it would be in addition to Mulatos main pit production whereby instead of 150,000 ounces, you could b... | Yeah, I think under our existing plans, I mean, we've got about six different sources of ore at Mulatos between Cerro Pelon, La Yaqui Grande, the various Mulatos pits and the stockpiles we have. So our plan is to has a relatively smooth production profile averaging around 150,000 ounces over the next six years. We do h... | direct | [
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1dcfee79af8ca37094f96a7a998e18cb | Of course, and maybe a question on the financial side here. Certainly, I don't know how to forecast this but the US dollar, Canadian dollar and nowadays, it seems like the Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar. Maybe, Jamie, could you remind us of your hedging strategy? How much is being hedged right n... | Yes, certainly. So we've -- as of today, we've got about 50% of our Canadian dollar exposure hedged for the remainder of 2020, on a pretty tight caller range between $0.74 to $0.76. So spot is right in the middle of that range currently and that's generally what we try to do. We use callers to try to approximate our bu... | direct | [
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6d327da8d1ebd24496ecbae06a3e1fab | And then one last question if I may on this COVID-19. Certainly, Q2 was impacted but it sounds like you have a lot of protocols in place and you are in a good place. But based on observations up until now, any kind of permanent changes, permanent impact that we could expect on a longer term basis in terms of cost, in t... | Yeah, I think from -- I mean, you would have seen it with our revised guidance, our cost guidance is effectively flat but a slight increase relative to what we published at the start of the year. The COVID cost we reported in our Q2 financial statements of $6.5 million, those were incremental related to the temporary s... | direct | [
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31f2fe76369b25350eeb41241c099d7d | Peter, you say that you will be at 7,500 metric tons a day from the underground by the end of the year. How long would it take you to get to 8,000 metric ton a day roughly? Is that -- does it take another six months to get there, so that will be the middle of next year? | Hey, Kerry. I don't know. We haven't entered into our budget setting yet, but I would expect that we'll be getting into 8,000 at some point next year, I mean, 7,500 metric tons a day and we'll see as we go through this -- the latter half of this year. But I mean, the mine is currently really well positioned, I would sa... | intermediate | [
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47ac6fdfe048ec1b63ba31cd50246428 | Okay, OK. And then just a second question on why the -- do you plan to maintain any sort of a surface stockpile from underground or you're just going to have that -- the fine ore bins underground, the 6,000 metric tons for access sort of ore? | Yeah, I mean, it could -- we could end up with an underground ore stockpile on surface. It depends on -- during mill shutdowns and things like that, we could put a little bit out in the yard. We have the capability of doing that. We wouldn't expect it to be significant though. We've got lots of -- we've gone from, as y... | direct | [
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53045a76ed2633439fa57e4291001543 | Okay. But by this, I mean, is a day of storage capacity, of milling capacity is enough in terms of storage? It just seems like you probably want to have a bit more, I guess is what I'm wondering? | Yeah, we'll probably end up with the few days on surface to go to, if we have to. | direct | [
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195a765b76d94b8b44a39bf80d497e2e | It's good to see everything moving in the right direction, here. Joe, I really appreciate the analysis you're doing versus your customers. But one of the things it does is it assumes that you're static with the industry. So when do you think you can start showing a level of outperformance versus what the industry is do... | Well, Matt, thank you for the question. And I love your focus on us accelerating our growth to outperform the industry and outperform the markets we're serving because that is absolutely our strategy. We remain focused on that. We're making a lot of investments in taking, all, what we believe are the necessary steps to... | intermediate | [
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dc6273b3db5f6b0e9cbfda9747245e10 | All right. Excellent. And you previously communicated a potential for accelerated revenue from some early commercialization customers. Can you give us like an update on how some of those have progressed? Were they held up a little bit in their commercialization efforts due to the extension of COVID or are they generall... | Yes. So Matt, you're probably referring to the emerging customers that we shared in our pipeline back on the third quarter earnings call, where we shared we've got five customers that are in product introduction phase. And we expected at that time, about $20 million of revenue or $20 million of sales in the -- during 2... | direct | [
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3ea00cf418272529aac027032621036b | And then Jason was talking about the sequential not acceleration, the sequential increases in R&D investments you guys are making maybe to support some of this growth. And I think you mentioned a bunch of -- about the hiring of engineers with the development programs. I'm just trying to understand what's the right base... | Matt, you understand the dynamic well that as we add engineers, customers are also reimbursing us for that work that we're doing. And so if you look at the typical profile, typically, what you see are R&D programs beginning to gain a lot of traction in the second half of the year. The revenue that we collect from custo... | direct | [
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f0b715ff7fde7c0c3ff653570925dec1 | Yes. And then last question, it's a cyclical question. I think your Non-Medical is a cyclical business. I think we are entering into a period of time where I think we're not just early cycle, people are talking about, maybe we're getting early to mid-cycle on that, and you guys are just bottoming at $7.5 million. How s... | So you're referring to our Electrochem, Non-Medical...
Sure, sure. We think this is definitely the bottom. We have seen an improvement in orders and demand from customers. We don't think that's going to meaningfully change our outlook for the rest of the year. We -- 2020, we were about $35 million in sales. We expect ... | direct | [
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c323edf9eb3f84f45e5ea82d2b8806a9 | Just following up on the R&D topic. Can you give us a sense how long it takes for that expense to translate into top line revenue? I know some of these are longer-term projects. So is this something you should be looking for in maybe 24, 36 months? Or could it be sooner? | Jim, oftentimes, the fastest is a year. When you think about the time it takes to develop the tailored component product for our customers and then get through the qualification of regulatory process. And it depends on the complexity of the work we're doing. But it can also take multiple years. And if it's a product th... | direct | [
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e53ab4dcad39ab132c4ceec08cc635ac | All right. And then the follow-up for me is with regard to capacity. Let's say you're wrong about the industry recovery and it happens much faster than you think. I mean with the vaccines rolling out, we've seen some indications that things have really started to pick up. If your customers do see a fast recovery and in... | Jim, we believe we are. And to your point, we did have a reduction in headcount last year as we saw the step function change in -- step function reduction in sales, we're down about 700 heads on a year-over-year basis. And so we are adding back now. We're adding back the direct labor to begin that -- the preparation fo... | direct | [
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a519b822f27ae6da92cc522d8f94d0fe | I have a couple questions, I wanted to circle back to the Specialty Property Casualty results and specifically you talked about what you're doing from an underwriting perspective and reserving perspective about increased severity in the market, but not in your own book. I'm trying to reconcile that cautious posture wit... | Yeah, Greg, it's Ned. So if you kind of look over time, you will see that the amount of favorable development has reduced over time, but we do continue to view our reserves as adequate and continue to see on a quarter-over-quarter basis that loss trends while worse than they have been are still not at the level that's ... | direct | [
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48d6417fcb041e5d964445c4f628cb42 | Can you just remind me when you started to change your posture with the severity, was it six quarters ago or was it --? | I'll have to look back, Greg, but yeah it was probably about six or so quarters ago where we began to talk about the fact that within the marketplace, we were seeing severity increases. And I do want to go back to one other comment you said, where we have not really seen these changes in severity within our own book of... | direct | [
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656231c2bc0b061eef94d17913b9a151 | So the target accident year would probably be 16 or 17 that we'd want to track over the next several quarters to see how that ultimate pattern develops to get a sense of where your business is going to be going. Is that a fair assessment? | I think that is. It takes 24 or more months before we begin to have any kind of paid data really emerging out of those accident years and better claims data. So I think that's a good assumption, Greg. | direct | [
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c1d1d0a255caba5690f88f082272a346 | Okay, thanks. I guess on the Lloyd's business, and I know you're -- it's just an investment for you, but it seems like a lot of the rate movement in that market has been around property exposures and I'm just curious if you have a sense of for the 2019 year, potential more exposure to hurricane, catastrophe type volati... | I think for the overall market, Greg, you're right. The largest most significant rate increases within the Lloyd's marketplace have been in the property lines, especially those property lines that are loss affected and the same would hold true for us. For our book of business. I would say that on a net basis when you f... | direct | [
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267f78b9a13bd66273858b452d1f612f | First question is on the specialty P&C segment, physicians' rates were a little bit slower sequentially, about 100 bips, anything happening there that's kind of reducing the rate momentum you're seeing in Medmarc ? | Yeah, Chris it's Mike. One thing to keep in mind on the physicians' rate, it's included our podiatric business as well. So the physician rates were actually a little bit over roughly in the 4% range and there was a slight decrease on the podiatric business of about 1.4%, I believe, in the quarter, which brought it down... | direct | [
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157c811acf3986b913f1926442b107df | And then I guess just overall, where do you think the market needs to get to in terms of rates to get to rate adequacy or is that kind of still too early to call with uncertainty that you're seeing on the loss cost side? | Yeah, Chris, I think it probably is a little early to call. I think everybody is now more a ways to what we've been talking about for six or so quarters. We have begun to see more of that kind of more disciplined underwriting and drive toward price in the marketplace. The large verdict continue, the headline makers con... | intermediate | [
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735b6f0b2490333fb46fab3c04fa3db8 | And then why is healthcare so much worse, the physicians book why does that need so much more rate? | I think there are two reasons that I would point to, one, you've got more commercial capital that typically plays in that space. And it can be more rate focused, rate driven because that's what they have to compete on. They don't necessarily bring a particular expertise to the marketplace and so big premium dollars on ... | direct | [
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78a9d0e81edea89019df095a8ca01108 | Great. And then just switching to workers' comp, why were the workers' comp rates down more in the SPC segment than the Workers' Comp segment. I guess what are you seeing in terms of frequency and severity in both of those segments? | Yeah. This is Kevin. The frequency and severity has been very consistent with the overall book of business. The segregated portfolio cell business is a little more economically sensitive. There has been more growth in it. So more inexperienced workers and I think that's probably driven up the severity a little bit ther... | direct | [
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87b86b98282d02db1852ffe806dc0f13 | Okay, got it. And is the workers' comp, are you -- what are you seeing in your core workers' comp book, is frequency flat in that or is it still down, what's happening there? | Yeah, so in '16 and '17, it was kind of flat to up maybe a point; this year we're actually seeing it flat to down a little bit and severity trends fairly consistent with what I just said about the Segregated Portfolio Cell Reinsurance segment. | direct | [
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33b4ef36f3b4da460e77ac1c91fc4e3c | Okay. Got it. And then what rate increases are you guys getting in the Lloyd's book? | Hey, Chris, it's Ed, I don't have the specifics, in the property exposure it's certainly in the teens and greater, in the casualty book it's in the probably low to mid single-digits. | direct | [
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d6219ac5db58b15642d8c903a8a89502 | I guess first, how much higher does physician pricing need to go before you consider equity? So for example, like you can drop your accident year loss ratio down to be more in line with our long-term average? | Yeah, Michael, I think it's too early to call that, we have not seen the severity trends really manifest in paid losses and until we get a sense of where paid losses are actually heading, it's hard to know. We believe we are getting the rate that we need. But it's early days yet to tell.
Yeah, I think one other point,... | intermediate | [
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7ce1e7eadc0a82b39b715ab7655568ad | Second, what is your perception of your competitors' view on loss trends in the medical, professional liability segment? So are they acting like there is meaningful inflation in the system or is it just pretty much business as usual? | We said a few minutes ago, we are beginning to see competitors react to the severity trends in the marketplace and I think we were probably calling that pretty early and we're alone six quarters ago when we weren't, and I would say that the industry has really caught up to us at this point. | direct | [
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aff1cdc4c12cdbf0e781d4f9b956e25b | I apologize if we missed that from earlier. Maybe one on workers' comp here. So are there any one or two sort of competitors that are being particularly aggressive in this space, which led to kind of like a slowdown in written premiums or is it just basically a broader market shift? | It's a broader market shift. I mean, we're seeing competition from the package players that are leveraging comp to offset losses in commercial auto and umbrella and general liability. We're seeing competition from monoline workers' comp players and just in speaking about the decrease in direct written premium, I mean, ... | direct | [
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29e79b8c4b2f438c529cf0494f39e0d1 | And then maybe one housekeeping, apologize once again, if this has already been discussed or asked, but what is your reasonable outlook for equity and earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries? | It's a good question, it's kind of a volatile part of our investment portfolio. So it's hard to predict kind of quarter-over-quarter. On a number of those investments, there is a reporting lag, a timing lag and so you can kind of look back at the economic performance over the prior quarter and sometimes get an indicati... | intermediate | [
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4d7a85feba3fc18d67eba6ff8267416c | I want to start up by asking about the linearity of bookings during the quarter and as well through the first half here of the second quarter. I appreciate the fact there's been a lot of moving parts and a lot of things you've had to navigate over the last four months. But have you seen any sort of recovery in your end... | This is Emily. So let me address your question. So in the beginning of April, we definitely see strong backlog across all regions, including Europe and North America and Asia. I would say the second week of April, we definitely started seeing a change from the backlog situation and the bookings situation for Europe and... | direct | [
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0a21ef0a696b8eb1510f42b02b60fc11 | Okay. And Brett, I'm curious to know how much of an impact to gross margin underutilization and COVID-19-related inefficiencies, how much of that influenced gross margin in the first quarter? And as well how much of that is influencing your guidance for the second quarter? | Well, the biggest thing that impacted us in the first quarter was you had basically the time off for Chinese New Year, which is usually a week, ended up being more like two weeks. And so that was the biggest impact we had in the first quarter. And I think we'll see that recover consistent with our demand and as we move... | intermediate | [
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c569e67451316d76b171c4695e29d26f | Okay. And Dr. Lu, I didn't quite catch everything you said about the penny Lite-On acquisition. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we're just waiting for final approval from China? And so did you comment that you expect the acquisition to close at the very end of calendar year 2020 or within your previously disclosed window ... | What we expect is during the second half of 2020 to close on the Lite-On acquisition, Gary?
Yes. They are two dates, then call the outside date. And typically, outside date means if you bypass that, no deals, OK? So we said it outside date originally is in we now study to end of December, but that's not what we expect... | direct | [
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bd504b52941c8a461c7198598f5dfceb | What is your expectation for point of sale in Q2? And how do you see inventory levels changing at this? Do you expect distributors to reduce inventory levels, and as such, the POS will be actually above the POP for which you just guided? And what also will be the implications for Q3 if there is some inventory deleverag... | Well, I'll let Emily to answer you the POS questions.
Right. So Tristan, I think overall, we still expect Asia would have a good momentum for Q2, because we actually see the strength both from the backlog and booking as well as the POS point of view. The big question is really North America and Europe. We've definitel... | intermediate | [
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a7421e4282eb273e6a456ed0b7bfa30b | Okay. Great. And then given the continued market share gains that you've experienced in automotive, would you say that the automotive end market in China, which I think may be around 40% of your total automotive exposure, has that stabilized quarter-on-quarter? Is it still declining sequentially from a unit standpoint,... | Right. I think overall automotive unit definitely declined, not only in China, right? That's overall the market. So we definitely are seeing that as well. So our automotive-gained market share, like I mentioned, is really focusing on the content expansion and also past few years on the demand design-in design win effor... | direct | [
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f01ddf824be05ef44f31bdd4b1d187b9 | Yeah thank you for taking my question. So first one just on the current clarification or a little bit color on opex. So it looks like R&D and SG&A also came a little bit higher as a percentage of revenue compared to the most recent quarters. So I'm wondering how much of those increase was driven by just the coronavirus... | I think our R&D and SG&A actually in the fourth quarter last year compared with third quarter last year actually strong 5% or 6%, right? So 5% or 6%. And that's because 4Q is the holiday in U.S., in Europe, the Christmas holidays. And then you go to 1Q, we are almost flat between 4Q and 1Q. And that 4Q 1Q is in Chinese... | intermediate | [
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a6de2635f9f2a8f64e0bc6256e25d333 | Okay. And probably next one just some color on the industrial, Emily, if you can help me to understand. It looks like industrial really I know the general market is weak, but how can we just talk about how should we think about for 2020? And just some color would be very appreciated. | Okay. So I think, overall, just like you said, right, industrial overall segment is actually a down segment. So it's similar to our automotive segment. Overall market is down, but we have been continuing to focus on demand creation, driving the content expansion, design-in design win effort is actually, in the past few... | intermediate | [
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20f4d2496528e74709365f338c81ea6a | Regarding the National IV engines, can you talk about how the sales have been and what the outlook is you're seeing from your customers for those engines? | For the National VI engines, as you'll probably know, some of the major cities have implemented it and gas engines has been -- also been implemented since 1 July, 2019. We're getting some orders. In fact, it's increasing. So, we expect this year to have a good number of units sold. And we'll be ready for next year to s... | direct | [
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e4bc20e3beefcb789c6901a60f3ef752 | Okay. And are you still -- on the gross margins, you mentioned the National VI. Are you still doing them, the batch production and when will you switch to the commercial production for these engines? | Some of them are still in batch production and some of them are in what we call volume production. So, we're seeing improving trend of gross margins for National VI products. So, actually in the last few months, it's been on increase as to volume of National VI engines sold increase as well. The rest of the remaining e... | intermediate | [
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26450cea0d6257fb69b446eb42e9f2bf | Okay. And then, on the new energy technology development, can you talk more about kind of where you are in that cycle? Obviously, there's a lot more -- not even just buses, but now there's other vehicles moving to electric. Where are you in the development of these? And when do you think you might have something on the... | Okay. We're selling some electric power systems. Those that we have launched in May in Beijing, we got awarded especially in particular for the range extender. We're getting a lot of very good inquiries for that particular, let's call it, the system. We are at a stage where we're actually selling the prototypes to some... | intermediate | [
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8e5eded12b13fb04b80bb21ee85df9b2 | Okay. When do you think you'll be getting more commercial size orders for the electric motor systems? | The electric motor systems, I think, we are doing some integrations. We have full time integrated systems right now. But we don't see that we'll have it in a big way yet. It's going to take us a little while, I think, to build it up. We're still in the early stage of the electric vehicle segment of the market, whereas ... | direct | [
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8b2af141cc2affe3cab0c924e6ec9569 | Yes. What's the operating cash flow in your third quarter? | We are almost -- Ke Chen, this is Thomas. We're almost neutral. We are slightly under by minus RMB40 million. So, we're almost breakeven. Compare with Q3 of last period, we're very much better. Last Q3 was a huge negative. It is mainly due to strong collection for the third quarter. | direct | [
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b7b7296a35a9d6e24ebf73e25fb3691e | That's great. Please talk about to the MTU JV related revenue and profit in your third quarter. And more importantly, what's the outlook for this JV? | Mr. Chen, this is Kelvin. Regarding the MTU joint venture, we have sold around 60 units in the third quarter of 2019. And our forecasts for the next years are not finalized yet, but we expect it in the range of range of 200 to 250 units for 2020. | intermediate | [
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853bd0ae29a2919f8db72773f2c44f89 | What's the revenue range? | Revenue is around in the range of above $85 million or 60 engines. | direct | [
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de4bf90731ec719a204b56ee03c9eb98 | I see. With the better legal environment in Hong Kong, are you guys considering listing Hong Kong, like what Alibaba did recently? | We haven't thought about it yet. Yeah, at this point, we don't like to do so, no. | direct | [
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f96b9dd2dc7db1810563acebbc32762f | You mean, you will consider it? Are you going to think about it or... | Well, we haven't discussed it. We haven't really given it much thought. So no, and at this point in time, there is no plans right now. | direct | [
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00d8b9c22c7a3d2bc32cd236e3795191 | Okay. My last question about gross margin, again, the trend actually is improving from second quarter. Do you see this gross margin go back to 19% overall, like you did for the last couple of years? I mean, do you see that trend eventually? | Yes, it is. We're seeing an improving trend now, because as the volume increases, the gross margin also improve for the National VI. So going to next year, when the government starts to buy only National VI engines in the middle of next year, we should see a substantial increase in the unit sales for next year. So, ove... | direct | [
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78e33a40c8ba6cd7b23d22ec8e2f8d49 | Okay. So with this higher emission standards and higher technology requirement in China, do you see more engine market consolidation going forward? | Well, it's hard to say. I don't know, to sort of comment on our competitors, but we hope that there'll be some... | fully_evasive | [
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28e6c44fffc6c07fa2f3e8acebe2cec2 | I didn't quite catch the main drivers of the reason why interest expense spiked so much in the quarter. Can you just try to clarify for that for us a bit further, please? | Sure, and good morning. Thank you for joining us. So the overall theme for the third quarter was the excess liquidity we carried, which put some pressure on net interest income and impacted our results. We were keeping extra liquidity on the balance sheet. And we're also preserving the funds available for reinvestment ... | direct | [
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9e65089528bf69058eafd5aed51bbd62 | Are you expecting earnings to reach the dividend level in the fourth quarter? And just broadly thinking about the dividend in the way it was established as a follow-on to the Two Harbors transaction. Based on where returns are today and given the outlook for interest rates, do you expect to reach the dividend level nex... | Good morning, Jade. Thank you for the question. So I'll take the Q4 first, and then I'll address the dividends after that. I'd say, look, it's difficult to predict the exact number for the fourth quarter as, obviously, as you know, there are many factors influencing our earnings such as the timing of loan closings and ... | intermediate | [
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56917339574e9849f09d2384b89b377c | Thanks for that. I think it's worth being realistic in considering that your current dividend implies a return of 9% on book value. Given the expense structure and G&A, that would require around 12%, 12.5% gross ROEs. Some have been commenting that achievable ROEs are more in the 11% to 11.5% range. One thing I have as... | Hi, Jade. This is Jack. Good to speak with you. Well, I think as we've discussed in the past, we're always evaluating and open to evaluating various business opportunities that will drive extra returns. And our team really has strong capabilities to execute on a variety of investment strategies, as we've done so over m... | intermediate | [
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0d56444a0afe3a7ddcff827f059a56b1 | Marcin, you talked about the average leverage during the quarter. What was the average cash balance? | I think if you look at the cash on the balance sheet and some of the funds that we had in our CLOs, definitely north -- the excess liquidity, I would say, was definitely north of $100 million. We try to maintain -- our covenant requires at least $40 million. We try to keep a cushion above that, somewhere between that a... | direct | [
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b1b384b20f4c3b3de229439f4fee6570 | Got it. And -- OK, that's helpful context. And if we look at -- and this sort of ties into the question that Jade just asked. If we look at the dividend, the implied of the required ROE at book value today to achieve that's about 9%. That's, frankly, above where ROE has been at any point in the history of the company. ... | Thanks, Rick. And look, as I said earlier, there are a lot of different factors that affect it. But for equity offering in the first quarter, I would assume we probably would have earned the dividend in Q1 of '19. Obviously, that was diluted by our equity raise, which was strategic for us for many reasons. Since then, ... | intermediate | [
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03e4ea35a083d285d121a950904eb927 | You mentioned that prepayments are likely to be elevated in the fourth quarter, here around $300 million. Do you think this is getting to more of what you would see as kind of a sustainable level of prepayments as your portfolio is starting to season here? And will there -- do you expect any significant prepayment inco... | Arren, this is Steve Plust. Thanks for the question. We said repeatedly on these calls that we think a sustainable level of prepays when the portfolio matures, something like a 25% rate annually. And the $300 million certainly is approaching that. Obviously, quarter to quarter, these are lumpy assets. Quarter to quarte... | intermediate | [
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2ca8b79082f9feb78d7db20c517f45fa | OK. And I guess with your stock now trading kind of at or slightly below book value and it doesn't sound like you're going to increase your leverage too much, do you think you have enough of a recycling of the portfolio that can consistently provide enough capital to fund what you have in the pipeline into next year? | Yes, we do. This is Jack. Thank you for your question. And I'll say, we do have enough to cover our origination pipeline that's in hand, and we have about $200 million plus of additional growth origination capacity in excess of that. And yes, we do, as we noted, expect meaningfully higher prepayments in this fourth qua... | direct | [
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a2d634be2a08ebe8fc1855f4813bb8de | Thanks. I'm sorry if I missed this earlier, but the risk four rated loans, I think there are two last quarter and now one. And could you just provide color on that? | It's Steve Alpart. Thanks for the question. Thanks for joining. So we're continuing to monitor that asset for Q3. We maintained the risk rating of four. That 9/30 loan is current on its debt payment, and we do not expect to create any reserves for that loan other than what might be required on the CECL. We mentioned in... | direct | [
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71e3644ef2132ed1783b35fff14e5ec7 | And last quarter, were there two risk 4=four rated loans? And now there's one. Well, I guess, what happened to the other loan? | Sure. As Jack mentioned earlier, during Q3, we had a multifamily asset in New York, and that loan repaid at par. | direct | [
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acb396acdf1e0d6488b6062663fddf04 | Was that subject to rent control? | That asset had a few units in it that were subject to rent control. But as our -- as is our general approach, it was a de minimis part of the business plan. And we typically don't underwrite to those types of assets, leading rent control. So if it had not paid off, we were not concerned about that one being impacted by... | direct | [
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6ced8940745b087f965697fb03d6299d | Thanks for that. I wanted to ask a broader question, again, drawing upon your experience in the industry. Everyone talked about how benign the credit cycle has been, but that's because most commercial real estate loans have 10-year maturities, and we're not yet at the doorstep of those anniversaries. Even though there'... | Hey, Jade. Good morning. Steve Plust. Sorry if I'm being a little too soft in speaking. It's really hard to say because from our experience, unless you got a macro cycle going against you, most defaults are really episodic and what I would say, call it, idiosyncratic and specific to a particular business plan or a part... | intermediate | [
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069ee0e9eea0579f42fce5c32d08e366 | And in terms of your own internal asset management process, what's the level of frequency of dialogue with borrowers? | It's pretty high given the nature of the assets. We're doing a lot of future fundings. There's business plans that require our participation as a result, where, I wouldn't call it constant, but very frequent dialogue with sponsors about the state of what's going on, reviewing leasing activity reports, reviewing capex p... | direct | [
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b309efb78d19776137cd3613fc52a488 | First question is Puma West. So, you know, has there been any movement? Any sort of understanding on what next steps are? And if you can provide a timeline as to when that might occur? | Yeah, Subash, it's good to hear from you. Not quite yet. You know, I think one thing about the prospect is, you know, it's a pretty complicated prospect. I mean, I think, you know, this kind of exploration is kind of the foundation of, I think how you create value offshore. Question is, how do you manage it? We manage ... | intermediate | [
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22b62d9225ea2cf01dba99ca13185d5d | And then as a follow up, maybe I get the, you know, the answers I deserve here, but on Zama, any sort, can you? Can you sort of speak at all to what type size development and financing broadly you might be looking at. And then just on the borrowing base, your determination? We've seen some maturity extensions, other op... | Yeah, well, let me let me handle a little bit on Zama. You know, again, whereas what we're doing in the in the US golf, we just talked about the Midwest, you've got partners we've worked with before, you've got a base into Houston, private sector moving at a fast pace, you know, even though we don't have specific answe... | intermediate | [
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aaf3d71ff9f323e804c91af341702ea5 | I was wondering if you could provide additional color and a few things. First, is our follow up on the redetermination. Just to make sure how far are you looking to push the credit facility maturity? And do you have a leverage target, either on a ratio or absolute basis? which you would want to run tellers apps? | Yeah, we wonder -- so, look, you know, I don't get into too many specifics right here. But I would say, you know, we're pursuing a market deal. So if you look at the market, and what was sort of done in the fall last year, in terms of extensions, or what's been done in the spring, thus far this year, for extensions, yo... | intermediate | [
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2eef001b232aebc58fd5667dfb18a825 | And switching gears a little bit. A big operator in the Gulf has recently announced the business model concept that will use the Gulf of Mexico say, I think we're here to talk about the credibility of these concepts from your perspective, and whether or not you see the potential to not necessarily compete, or rather dr... | That's actually -- that's actually a pretty interesting question. And you're right, you know, I think we're one of the few firms that that it's as we have a couple things, you know, we have a legacy of operating shallow water in previous companies that we built, and even in, even in Talos, we still have some shallow wa... | intermediate | [
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84f65c49cdf4d0ccc99beca938262374 | Last one for me, on the AMD market. Do you see creative opportunities for colors Indigo for any other basis for that matter? | We think so. I think look, it's always a little difficult to move assets, you know, the market moves at the pace in which sellers want to sell and, and I do think some of the majors are thinking about their portfolio. Now that we have kind of a stabilized environment. You don't have some of the wide bid ask spreads tha... | intermediate | [
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650e73e9a40f7b56dc99d4e0d0007c13 | We do try to offer equidae any opportunity to deliver efforts to them an opportunity to be accredited for you? | Look, I think you got to be smart about it. You said to keyword and creative and you asked a question earlier about how we think about we're ultimately we want the balance sheet. So I think, you know, kind of all that has to go into a bucket and sources and uses sometimes depending on the seller, there's other kind of ... | fully_evasive | [
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a88be9f4693c74f352809c7b1f4463fc | I wondered just -- Mark, you mentioned the updated guide. Obviously, it includes the balance sheet restructuring and the second round or the latest round of PPP. The interest rate picture has also improved a bit. I'm wondering if that provides some potential upside do you think to NII guide, or is that just not impactf... | Yeah, the short-end of the curve definitely impacts us a lot more than the long end would. We did take advantage in the first quarter, as I noted and put some money to work in the investment portfolio out of cash, but we're still sitting obviously in a lot of excess liquidity. Our expectation is that the tenure is goin... | intermediate | [
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9f92fced67bf827c24aa48b1d782bdbb | Okay. So does the guide then just sort of assume the securities book is kind of flattish at these levels, or is there some of that excess cash gets redirected through the rest of the year? | No, I'd expect for the balance of the year, the securities book will stay relatively range bound, unless if we would see an opportunity if the tenure[Phonetic] would pop up to 180[Phonetic] again temporarily. We could put a little bit to work there. But I'd expect it to stay relatively consistent as a percentage of the... | direct | [
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6532a8f8697a619f8bcb7b951c26a43a | Okay. And then just thinking about reserve levels, I mean it seems like this could be a fairly -- I mean still early in the year, but it seems like it could be a fairly normal year in terms of charge-off levels. And so, as qualitative factors continue to normalize, do you think there is opportunity for additional reser... | Yeah, we went from 99 basis points to 120 basis points when CECL was first implemented. And then, -- I'm sorry to 140 basis points. And then, we went from 140 basis points up to our current level as a result of COVID. Do I think it can drift down to Day 1 CECL again? Yes, I do. But again, that's obviously dependent -- ... | direct | [
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fc5ea1223a8e4f42174fd773bce150a6 | I'm not sure if I missed this or not, but did you provide the -- I know you gave some fee numbers from PPP, but did you provide the impact that had on the margin in the first quarter? | Yeah, so the way to think about the margin I mean, what I can share you is that our fee income totals, Danny, were $19.4 million in the first quarter. That's up from $14 million in the fourth quarter, but we also saw increased excess liquidity in the first quarter. To me, when you're talking about the effect of PPP and... | direct | [
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405e1cbb49bb3c9faf6aab187fe905dd | Okay, that's helpful. And then, maybe if you can talk a little bit about the assumptions embedded in your net interest income guidance within the NIM and then maybe on the balance sheet as well. | Well, yeah, I mean, we were intentional when we gave our guidance to not provide NIM guidance for the year because the timing and the volatility with PPP makes a little bit harder to predict balance sheet size. And I think as you've seen from the whole industry, the whole industry is sitting on a crush of excess liquid... | intermediate | [
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fe902f0c83f6ba95ae5a0ac74724a7af | Okay, that's terrific. And then I guess last thing here on the balance sheet restructuring, you mentioned reducing asset sensitivity a bit, but coming into the quarter pretty strong given the increase in deposits. So how is the bank from an asset-sensitive perspective now relative to maybe before COVID or this increase... | It's a great question. And the answer is, with everything we've done, we're really just kind of treading water. I mean, we've reduced our asset sensitivity slightly, but then remember every time you get excess liquidity, if you got a non-maturity deposit and it's sitting in overnight cash, that's inherently very asset ... | direct | [
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e4a62f8a0ac0a58af92cca2a69df53d8 | Maybe first, just a question for Mark on the non-interest expense outlook for the year. If I remove the restructuring charges from the first quarter and then kind of annualize that level kind of $145 million on a quarterly rate kind of come in toward the top end of that range. just curious and then you mentioned invest... | Yeah, you should definitely -- great question, Erik. You should definitely not be taking that number and just kind of multiplying by four. In the first quarter, we had some items that definitely won't repeat. We did have some bonus payments that were just related to our frontline personnel for all the great work they'v... | intermediate | [
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05be4e42f63cc30dca2850be1076c7c4 | Thanks. That's helpful. And then one for maybe Phil or Curt. In the prepared comments, you mentioned that you're expecting loan growth to support the NII guide. Just curious where you're seeing opportunities to grow. I mean, I have spoken to a couple of smaller banks in your markets and they're still seeing your pretty... | Yeah. So, we're seeing opportunities across all our markets, maybe a little more in the urban markets. It's really hard to grow your loan portfolio ex-PPP when all that PPP money is coming in and a lot of it's paying down lines. So as that disappears and people start using their lines of credits like they have in the p... | direct | [
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ac9ed996956c4c5b2197d89a0a7b8af9 | Got it. Thanks for the color there. And then just one last one, thinking about the mortgage banking line, and if I exclude the impact from the mortgage servicing assets valuation, it looks like the run rate was maybe kind of $8 million or so. I'm just curious, thoughts going forward, we're entering the peak home sellin... | Yeah, we see that business continuing to be strong. We are putting loans on the balance sheet. So it depends if you look at fee income or if you look at the balance sheet growth, that operation really funds and fuels both of those. So, we expect seasonal improvement just moving from first quarter into then the normal h... | intermediate | [
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87832519b9cdade600529410e0121a4a | Let me just first start, if I could, on the NII guide. One other follow-up, please. So the $640 million to $660 million, you guys mentioned includes PPP assumptions. Do you have a number for how much of that $45 million of remaining fees is included in that guide? | We're not providing that specific guidance. But again, what I can tell you is that of the $15 million that relates to the first wave, we're assuming that between 80% and 90% of those loans, so it's about $1 billion left on our balance sheet. We're assuming that, that comes off by the end of the year. Now keep in mind t... | fully_evasive | [
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6b6c0b44f6b37499dd1100e88901f125 | Okay. That's helpful. Thanks a lot. And then just following up on Erik's question on the loan growth expectations, I know you don't put too fine a point on it and talked about some of the geographic contributors, but how about mix for the year? I know you mentioned portfolio, some residential real estate, but the organ... | Yeah, Russell, it's Curt. We do still see residential mortgage continuing to be a significant provider of growth as it has, and we have the ability to balance sheet that activity and that activity is strong. On the commercial side, we continue to focus on being diversified in our portfolio. So, we really are trying to ... | intermediate | [
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5bffc14b0648e8849443c328245e5e87 | Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just last one for me. You mentioned the $75 million buyback authorization. Could you discuss your appetite to buy back stock at current levels? | At current levels, Russell, we run a model and just look at that like what the earnback will be on that dilution. So obviously, as the stock price goes up, and you're buying at a higher premium to a tangible book value, it increases the earnback length. So we want to continue to have that out there as one tool in the t... | direct | [
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499a9169c87285959eb431ab03405900 | Hey, guys. It's Zach Westerlind here covering for Matt Breese. How are you? | Hi, Zack. How are you doing? | direct | [
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878406a007ada1f5cc46059ea38bde57 | Good. Just to go back to the margin really quickly. I was just hoping that you could provide a little color on incremental loan yields coming on the book and what new deposit costs are kind of looking like? | What I can share is we do -- without answering your question directly, but what I would share is that I had stated in the last quarter's earnings call, which I know you were not and Matt was on, I said that we expect within the next quarter or so to be at our trough on margin on a core basis. And I would say that with ... | intermediate | [
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ef96e178ada22611b220dfb7b889c6bf | Great. I appreciate that. And I know you talked a little bit about asset sensitivity of the loan book. Are you able to share what percentage of the loan book is floating and how much of that is at the loan floor[Phonetic] if you're able to share that? | Yes. So when we look at it today, our loan book appears on the surface to be 31% fixed rate, but that includes PPP. So when you strip out PPP, the fixed rate of our loan portfolio is about 23%. And so, we would still be then about 77% between adjustable and variable. And if you -- in total, we have about $12.6 billion ... | intermediate | [
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f3c5f09ef863e14cb61ab93967396ccd | Great. I appreciate that. And then last one for me, just kind of on the M&A landscape. Well, obviously, we've seen some pretty big deals in your market lately. Just kind of curious about if -- how these larger deals are impacting the conversations? Have conversations been picking up, slowing down? Or just any color you... | I would just say, over the last six months, conversations have picked up. | direct | [
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027824b1e6fdffb13a519662c7524c5c | Hey guys, a couple of quick questions. I'm just curious I mean, look, in this environment, there has been a lot of providers who haven't been able to kind of rise to the occasion in the same manner. I'm just curious what you've seen in terms of referral sources. When you look at your different businesses, are you seein... | Yeah. Generally speaking, yes, we haven't talked about and disclosed a particular number of referral sources, but I will tell you, we've seen a widespread strengthening of our existing referral relationships and then an expansion of those. Literally, there were instances where some of our referral sources were in reall... | intermediate | [
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9cd21ce25983f2f3c50938e459f9f4ec | Okay. Could you just talk in a little bit more detail about kind of the local leadership model, the strength of your IT systems. What it has afforded you in terms of speed of decision making and flexibility. Obviously, the conditions on the ground are very different in different markets and then also in that same vein,... | Yeah, thank you. That's a great question. So each one of our operation -- the best way to think about our response to this is, there was a Pennant response and then there were 130 individual responses. Each CEO has the ability because of our IT system and other processes to see exactly what their P&L is going to look l... | direct | [
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dc47cf0253d08f5e093e0fe6b7e3278a | Okay. Just last from me. One, I would assume your learnings in the Pacific Northwest was part of what helped you guys get ahead of the PPE purchasing and secondly, just anything it's kind of gotten lost in the shuffle, but anything that you'd call out in terms of the implementation of PDGM?
And then I guess my final o... | Yeah. Great. So on the PPE front, yeah, I mean because we were affected early and we had a multi-faceted response to securing PPE, everything from getting it from dental offices that had been closed down and making sure that there was the immediate ability for our staff members to start caring for their patients with a... | direct | [
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cac8f03988a5de66468b7888279ffb6c | Good morning. I guess, staying on that subject of the grants. Is there any specific thing that you could call out any kind of specific terms to that financial assistant that are worrisome because I know we've had a number of companies, some taking others, but anything you could call out specifically the most worrisome? | Yeah. So really the first, the most worrisome issue is that there is no clarity on the terms and so right now, the information we're getting is you, it's an all or nothing proposition and the decision there doesn't give you adequate clarity on the terms that are or will exist and so that's probably the primary issue. T... | direct | [
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056e14335fa5160abae3bdcbf8c99b40 | Got you. And I guess, going to the subject of PDGM. Just wanted to go back again and talk about -- obviously, you talked about how your revenue held up pretty well even on the -- and I think you called out in the press release you were very specific to say PDGM cases. So I guess, I wanted to confirm that. And I guess, ... | Yeah. I think from what you're seeing in that is we had a strong quarter from a revenue side. That included both PPS episodes for all those episodes that were being completed into the quarter, and then of course, PDGM episodes for everything subsequent. And I think as Danny said where we thought we would be, we've been... | direct | [
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"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
f01c0871f187c56f449e752b1caaeea2 | Got you. Thanks very much. And then, I guess jumping over, you've got several, I think, three pending deals you called out in the Southwest. And I know you can't provide a lot of details, but can you give us maybe like a revenue number that -- how much revenue we might be talking about as a result of these three? And y... | Yeah. Thanks Frank. I think consistent with as we've disclosed previous deals, and especially so since this one is signed, but we haven't closed it yet. We'll have more to share as that closing takes place, but we're not in a position to give that detail yet.
Yeah. Because it's hospice and it's a more sizable hospice,... | fully_evasive | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | C |
bdad716b2c3655bea2670980923bb5e0 | Okay. And Dan, I'm curious on the Scripps, you talked about that relationship. Any more color you could share with us there, on how that's developing and kind of what you envision it turning into and maybe some thoughts around what type of revenue opportunity that might be? | Yeah. So John's been really heavily involved in this, so I want him to comment on this. But sort of high level, we view this as a test case. And Scripps has been a great partner for us through this process. They have been attracted to our localized operating model and the idea that they can have a decision maker that h... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
24404f8aa5c40f8faf4f3560bacbe9b8 | Thank you. And then I guess just looking at the margin picture on the senior living side, Dan, your margin's down year-over-year, but up 140 basis points sequentially by our math. And I know that as you look forward, obviously some of the sense of softness will probably affect that margin here in the near term. But is ... | Yeah. Frank, this is Jen. There have been some concerted efforts to focus on cost management during the first quarter on our Senior Living business. And their spend -- as you know in the last call that we had we talked specifically about the senior living business and our need to focus on the cost there. And so there h... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
b318e3a6d34029880fa7774007e9d67d | First one that I wanted to ask on is just with recruitment for the first 543 Phase III, particularly on top COVID. Just if you can provide any more specifics on how it's going and how site activation is going in the U.S. and internationally? | Sure. Maurice, this is Jim. So great question. We are doing very well. The trial is ongoing. We have our U.S. and Canadian sites are all doing very well, and we brought on the European sites. So I think given the experience we had last year running trials under COVID, we learned a lot. We have a great team that has now... | intermediate | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | B |
535ad42ebae40fa771c662bf79f6efa4 | I'm just wondering for the second Phase III, as you get that started, what the strategy is there for activating sites and enrolling patients internationally, if there's any more specifics you guys can mention on that? | Yes. No. Look, it's a very competitive space out there right now, and we have our sites selected. Things are progressing very nicely. We have good data that drives our enrollment. And we also have an ongoing open-label extension study, which has been very, very useful in our recruitment activities because patients know... | intermediate | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | B |
de0b3f79447b920cc237af82e1aa20df | Also wanted to ask a question about cash runway and financing strategy over the next 12 to 18 months. Just wondering if you guys could talk about scenarios like milestone payments from partners or potentially how a trial delay could impact your decisions going forward? | Sure. Yes. Thanks, Maurice. So look, we're a late-stage company now. We're in Phase III. We've got second Phase III about to kick off. And so no doubt, we'll have to bring in capital. There is a capital need. And so we do have cash through the end of this year, and we're always assessing dilutive and non-dilutive oppor... | intermediate | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | B |
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