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6c2baad5d46c2f62851d733fa7c2be7e
Last quick question just on the DDI studies that are being conducted alongside the Phase IIIs as part of the normal NDA packaging and labeling support. Just wondering if you can comment on the progress with those?
Sure, Maurice, Jim again. So yes, those are going to be studies that will support the NDA. Things are moving very nicely there. We have a great early development team in our clinical team, and those studies are progressing very nicely. We will have a number of those that will support the NDA, and we're on track to have...
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A
9af4724f565b70efabaf7694a4b1d8d9
First one, just a quick one on the second Phase III trial, your best start. Can you -- I know you said that, Roger, they were similar. Can you just remind us of any meaningful differences in the trial designs? And then also, can you talk about the overlap in potentially enrollment sites between the two studies?
Well, I'll start and then kick it over to Jim. Thanks very much for the question, Jason. So the endpoints will be the same for the two studies. The second one will be smaller because we'll have enough patients who have -- will have been exposed to CTP-543 to produce what we believe will be a quite robust safety databas...
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A
4a3b8d019630d8d55fc02aa7a62dbe1d
Just can you give us any update on the PTAB review of the 659 patent. I think you'd said last quarter that there was a potential for a post grant review in mid-May. Is that still possible? And then what would be the next steps following that?
Sure. So PTAB is currently reviewing the PGR petition that insight had filed against the 659 patent. They filed their initial petition, and we have responded to it. There's been additional back and forth on that. We expect that they should have a decision on whether or not to initiate a PGR review around the middle of ...
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d6416a98141e664b95a4108b63757138
First, can you speak about the competitor treatments and development for alopecia areata? And then second, separately, regarding additional pipeline opportunities. Can you speak about any clinical or preclinical results for CTP-543 in other therapeutic areas?
Hi Esther, So I'll take a first crack at that and if Jim wants to follow-up, welcome his thoughts on that. So the only entities, which currently are in development that have any clinical data associated with them are baricitinib and ritlecitinib. The data for those has been available for a while. The most recent releas...
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B
88fe185c68b95a758933b8ce306a43b2
Wondering if you could comment a bit on how you think about the safety of JAK inhibitors in general versus CTP-543? Given the recent developments around safety in the space, do you think about the differentiation between -- among these compounds versus a potential class effect?
Hi Difei, thanks for the question. So with respect to JAK inhibitors, it's clear that there are both class effects associated with JAK inhibitors to date or there appear to be class effects. And there are also idiosyncratic effects with the individual compounds as one would expect to see with small molecule inhibitors ...
intermediate
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B
910645e503ea2f8bfbc40ca4fdca7e8b
Hey guys, I was hoping to get maybe a little bit more color. I know it's maybe a tough question to answer on what the potential success case could look like. You've got this new deal here on the Chalk with this consortium that's going to drill through wells and you certainly pointed out, but could be individual deals s...
This is Tom, I'll take a shot at that with Fab here, who has been really working on this, but we -- among the 3 deals -- actually one -- well, one of the deals has 3 different operators, one of the deals has 1 operator and other one is 1, so we would expect 8 to 12 wells on the deals that we have done in the next 12 mo...
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B
87689abf88a7156284c09840e8323453
Okay, that's very helpful color. And I guess maybe just a high level, is most all of this activity focused on the oily window in the Chalk at this point in terms of all these deals you guys have?
I would -- the core -- the deals that we mentioned today are in the rich gas window. And we do have some significant acreage in the oily window that we are also working on and we have a lot of acreage immediately down dip to the rich gas window that we know is perspective for gassier Chalk wells that we will be working...
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A
b43fa144af3515536e0e67f848338eca
All right. I guess, certainly noticed that you guys made an acquisition here. It seems like it's been a while since Black Stone had bought something. I think you guys obviously point out it's not a huge deal, but can you maybe talk about your appetite for incremental M&A in this environment?
Hey, Leo, this is Jeff. Yes, thanks for that question. It has been a while, I mean, that our view was, during most of 2020, there were a lot of things going on, none of it good, well, just generally, but certainly not for the acquisition environment, right. So we had a stock price where we didn't really feel like the e...
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A
323f713b365cc30354e7da239ec43fb4
Good morning, thanks for taking my questions. Solid set of new development agreements, aside from the 100 Boe per day that Jeff mentioned on the northern Midland acquisition. Do you foresee any of those agreements potentially contributing in the second half 2021 production volumes or is that more of a TBD impact to nex...
Yes, Brian, this is Jeff. I think it's -- I mean, maybe just some trickling in from those initial wells in the back half of this year when you talk about the deals between Austin Chalk plus Shelby Trough, but no, it's much more of a ramp. So as Tom said, look, we're very excited about the area. This is not some brand n...
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7b27fe70886f0a224aa6c4f6512f8d5e
Great. And then in the release you stated increased producer activity across your acreage, I'm curious how you're seeing that translate in the base production levels, how current activity levels as we're sitting in early May might have compared to your expectations when you set your initial guidance for 2021?
Yes. So a couple of things going on there, Brian, I may add. I think the comment just is reflective of general rig activity. The biggest step up in rig activity over past couple of quarters has obviously been in the Permian, but we've seen some stability or increases in other areas as well. I will tell you that what we...
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f7a80e69f07a5d5c18fd3a01e7d19463
Congrats on your agreements. With regard to the Haynesville updates, do the Aethon agreement announced today fully unlock the potential of your Shelby acreage -- Shelby Trough acreage within your control?
Yes, the short answer to that Derrick is, yes, right. So we had two operators [indecipherable] Angelina XTO operating in San Augustine. As Tom mentioned XTO still has a meaningful position there on acreage that they hold in that original, what we call the Brent Miller area, which really kind of kicked off the entire pr...
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b4e3db7ca74c351e0542f9734bc7318c
Fantastic. And then as my follow-up regarding your Austin Chalk agreements. Could you tell me broadly what has been conveyed in the participation and development agreements to drive activity? Meaning, if I were to quote this 12 gross wells that you guys noted in your prepared comments, what would be your net exposure t...
Yes, Derrick, I mean look the incentives that we put in place for these operators sort of vary, but as we mentioned, it's royalty incentives in the early wells, especially in the test phase, and then it's a matter of charging reduced or very lessened upfront bonus payments. So the model for us is to get the molecules o...
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5f5302ee2286200802e782754a4a14d3
I was just wondering if I could get some additional color on the Midland deal, what counties is in and who are the operators?
Yes, it's Northern Howard primarily, and then there is a number of operators, for instance, since a big one... SM. Yes. I believed into Gordon just a little bit.
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1ed97362e1f27065b89ad4db043dd139
Great, thanks. And then I guess another question on M&A. What's kind of your appetite for going outside the Permian? Would that be, assuming can get them to take equity or would that just be your primary focus?
Oh no, we've always been relatively agnostic to basin, other than those things that we just maybe feel like we don't have a deeper understanding on, right. For example, we haven't done a big Appalachian deal in part just because of the concerns and understanding, the full picture around takeaway capacity, just as an ex...
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A
1b8a0d3a7e4a052fce8ae69265a4fcab
Great, thanks. And then the if I can just squeeze one more in. You guys kind of mentioned LOE 20% below the quarterly run rate implied in your guidance. You guys expect to LOE to kind of pick up in the coming quarters? Do you think this is somewhat of a run rate?
No, I know, we're a little below guidance on LOE for the quarter. It can get a little bit lumpy at some -- sometimes they're just workover activity, etcetera. But no, we wouldn't expect any big tick-ups and we'll be back next quarter and that's one of those things that if it continues to trend this way, we'll probably ...
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c3fa399f4f1f6ed580969535a930df41
Hey good morning and thanks for taking my question, and congrats on all the news. Just a quick update, Jeff, on your thoughts on hedging. Notice you layered on some, looks like some good hedges for oil for next year, for 2022 and just your thoughts on natural gas.
Good morning, Pearce. Thanks for that. And yes, look, we're just going to continue to be systematic around hedging. We don't typically try to time any of these markets. So I think just in normal course as we go on through the quarter, we would look to continue to add oil and natural gas hedges. We haven't put on a gas ...
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1021be4ffca324484da72abfeaabf3e2
Just the Phase 1b trial, will we see more patients? Or will this be deeper analyses and patients followed for more time?
Yeah. Thanks, Tom. You're gonna see both. I think I've made it clear that we are exploring additional doses, and we -- so we will have more patients, and we will also -- the patients that have been studied will have longer time. So you're gonna get both, more doses and longer time.
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5278028f5fd0d8260da9338950cb170c
OK. And then, hopefully, this isn't too big a question. But for TRD, how do we think about this? Is this a subset of patients with systemic inflammation that this all patients -- and just a little bit of a sense of is there any hint as to the time course of helping these patients? And if they have TRD from inflammation...
So I'm gonna give you what -- the way we think about it. We clearly think that it's a subset of patients with treatment-resistant disease. If you look at the biomarkers we used, we think about a third of those TRD patients probably have biomarkers of inflammation. That's the group we're gonna focus on initially. Rememb...
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A
94fdf5117dcb88631a77dd0cba7cf2d9
I was wondering if you were looking at any different neuroinflammation biomarkers for TRD versus what you're doing now for AD?
Yeah. Thanks. Well, you know as we mentioned, there's this very special connectivity biomarker that you can see using functional MRI in the TRD patients. So that is a unique biomarker to that patient population. We will be measuring all of our standard MRI biomarkers. As you know, we're interested in both white and gra...
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9d1ac958f32b81c728d91bb25a44b197
OK, thanks. Last question is, I was wondering to what extent have you had inbound interest from investigators wanting to use your anti-TNF or indications for which you are not planning at the moment.
So we have a significant effort that is at the preclinical stage. In other words, people ask us all the time, can I get the drug to study this model of neurodegeneration with that model. We have a very extensive and carefully curated program, but then we harvest the best of the best of these data. And I can tell you th...
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B
a4a610e4e9a67efd0af5a18d19458f59
On the Alzheimer's disease program, what additional data should we expect from the Phase 1b? And also, you're talking about initiating a Phase 2 program in neuroinflammation in the AD patients. What sort of time frame are you thinking of?
Yeah, thanks, RK. So we are -- as I've mentioned publicly, we're exploring doses in between the current cohorts of 0.3 and 1 milligram per kilogram. We see there are -- there is a dose response between those two groups as it relates to both measuring white matter free water and also looking at the CSF proteome. So I'm ...
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676e575de0c2b176607e12d79813239f
First off, with regards to Quellor, we know that you reduce neuroinflammation Wondering if you think this will have any impact in long COVID?
Well, I've been waiting for that question, Dan. Thank you. So we have been very interested since day one when the early symptoms of losing your sense of smell and taste were identified. We've been looking for a strong signal that there is a neuroinflammatory component. Quite frankly -- and so I'm talking about -- we've...
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B
611dd461ba245e2f38d67786e6903d95
Can you tell us how many patients have passed the 12-week period at this time? And importantly, in my mind, how many of them -- and I guess, the three in the lower dose are not still on a drug, but in the higher dose, how many of those are still on the drug at this point?
Yeah. So yeah, the lower dose are not on the drug, and that was more a -- it took us a while to get the amendment in place for the continuation trial. They wanted to be on the trial, but we didn't have the regulatory elements in place. So of the six patients in the high-dose group, everyone enrolled for the extension t...
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B
a457c4ffdf4f3b6c28af81ec17b9f347
And given that kind of current rate of enrollment in that, can you give us some general dates in terms of when we expect to get a data readout? And if that's positive, how long it will take to kind of complete the whole thing with the additional, I guess, 166 patients?
So as I said, we -- in the presentation, we expect to reach the DSMB mark for the first 100 by the end of the second quarter. And assuming we get the green light to go forward, we would expect to complete that enrollment. I think end of year, I think, is reasonable, unless the disease just disappears with the vaccinati...
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f8446744fe503340ab4c120a4663b31f
Are you, guys, seeing any changes in the FDA in terms of the urgency lately in terms of getting treatments for COVID? Do you see that changing as these diminishes? Or do you think -- yes, just kind of what's your kind of opinion? Because I know they also come and go, the FDA does in terms of their decisions and emphasi...
So Janet Woodcock, who I respect, is a very experienced -- the new Director of the FDA. And you can see some changes occurring in some areas. I've not had any sense of that in COVID-19, but that's a personal one company experience. But I mean, the FDA deserves a lot of credit for the way they've handled the pandemic. A...
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e336a248492e8f4d2bfd3ba77adca78b
It's about Alzheimer's and depression. So there's been a recent study that indicates that depression -- patients with depression are more likely to develop Alzheimer's disease by about one and a half years, and XPro is being tested for both, Alzheimer's disease and depression. So how do you see this affecting XPro1595?
Yes, thank you. That's a pretty interesting question. Actually, the way I interpret that data, it shows how neuroinflammation cuts across all of these various diseases. So the neuroinflammation contributed to both depression and Alzheimer's disease, and there are some people that get both, right? Actually, there's also...
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8cfa035d7d867da21b161bf7feaec333
So, if you could talk a little bit about your thoughts on Q4 versus Q3. I remember last quarter you talked about some slight sequential improvements. First of all, do you think Q4 still might show some sequential improvement versus that Q2 number? And then secondly, was there any sort of pull-forward from Q4 into Q3, t...
So, Charlie, we are not providing specific guidance. But let me just give you a little color there. We did say at Q2 that we expected Q3 to be a little bit better, and we feel like -- and the numbers hold out that we did better than a little bit better. We saw some nice improvement. We do see impacts of COVID, so we d...
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3ddab40b1f223d72bf12cbd829abf4f8
Got you. And do you think -- was there any pull forward at all from Q4 to Q3 that you can talk about?
There might have been, Charlie. But I think I know you're trying to build a model here. I would just tell you I think that the most important thing is the company is going to maintain margins here, and the variable will just be at the end of the day, how much slowdown is from COVID in this Q4 period.
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7ca6b05ee38aa503f4f88e9766308208
Great. And then just segueing into that, talking about the slowdown from COVID and small businesses have been closing. Have you seen -- at least from your customer base, have you've seen that rate of closures, kind of, starting to slow at all?
First thing I want to say, Charlie, is I don't think you should expect that it's going to get as bad as Q2. Now, of course, anything can change. But we don't think it's going to be nearly like Q2, but probably just not as good as Q3. Your specific question then is just about small businesses, and you know what, Charli...
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B
9c5102e73213a3aafa9ff7d755845692
Got it. And then just lastly on the cloud business with some of the larger financial customers, what's kind of the tone there? I know you, kind of, were thinking that you might see some pickup in the back half of the year. Are you still thinking that that maybe just get pushed out into the first half of next year or is...
So, in the data-driven marketing business, which has just got really great long-term growth prospects and a great design, we did say that we probably will see some improvement in the back half of the year as the recovery hopefully accelerated. And we think we saw bit of that in Q3, and we think we'll see a bit more in ...
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69a63a4b1b2df6b10e701f46d262aa44
Barry, I was wondering, could you -- you touched on 175 cross-selling deals, I think, for the quarter and a dollar amount. Could you remind me the dollar amount? And could you talk about where you're seeing these cross-selling wins come through in the portfolio?
Yes. And so, we highlighted a couple of numbers on sales, Chris. Because I think it really highlights the fact that we've done what we said we were going to do. So, when I came and joined the company, I said that we were going to pause acquisitions, so we could integrate the businesses that had been acquired, and then ...
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9751c75bb1f072d9627cb47492e57d2f
I guess if you wouldn't mind, just a little bit more discussion around Payments. Obviously understand the slowdown around Q4. Would you expect that double-digit growth rate to pick back up in Q1, barring no increase in COVID? Or could that be delayed a little bit longer?
You know what, we're not prepared to give guidance for '21 yet because of COVID. I mean, you well know that it just provides just a ton of volatility here. In Payments business, we've been saying for a long time, we feel very confident over the long term that it's going to be a double-digit grower and there may be occa...
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dce0f55a192d9a035fe505d070bcbecf
Sure. Understand. And moving on to Checks. Just historically, in a time where you're running an economic challenge period, the bounce back -- once we lap the impact of COVID, do you think the secular decline goes away for a little bit? Can you just think about how -- how are you thinking about the Checks business longe...
Yes. As you'd expect, we look at this pretty carefully, but here's what I'd tell you. The trajectory and the pathway, the shape of the curve in this economic downturn looks a lot like the shape of the curve in every other downturn, if we go back and look at in history. And that is that when the economy slows, there's j...
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A
9d832e5f7bc8691dbb76720b7ce37cf9
I appreciate that. And you touched a little bit on some e checks, the product doing well. Can you just expand on how clients are maybe working with that in this environment? Seems like it's kind of a perfect timing to maybe push that more.
It is perfect timing. It was great timing before, even better timing now. And I think we are pleased with customer adoption. Obviously, want to push even harder. But the very notion that you can be far more efficient, you don't have to print the check and put an explanation of what you're paying into an envelope with a...
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38a0f8ed7f46c1b69a86bf22e1a72fb7
In the release, you mentioned the recent news around the new headquarters and also the innovation center in Atlanta. I think in the release, you mentioned some cost savings potential. Can you just talk about those two initiatives and what it does for you changing your position in those markets, especially on the [Speec...
Sure. Yes, start just with the cold back, the money. And we see both of these moves were actually pretty savvy, and as an example of us taking advantage of market opportunity. Our headquarter facility in suburban Shoreview was obsolete well beyond end of life. We had a decision to make. We could look at putting up to $...
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e96da4f43197fb0161c2b2ed49902531
Okay. I appreciate that. And one last question, if you don't mind. I apologize. Just around the payment exchanges that you've talked about. Can you just talk about any progress you're seeing? I know it's a difficult environment, but there seems like a pickup in the quarter.
Yes, I mean the underlying product that's in the exchanges are the digital check, this e-check product. And we said we had a couple of nice wins that we can announce. We've had more of them that we can announce, of course. We announced that Albertsons and Delta Dental were joining and going to be using that solution, a...
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A
8e517d0d7cd420d1c80eda777950b67e
Just any more details you can provide on the Laurel Generating Station. Is this a new site or is it brownfield development or greenfield development? And is there kind of additional space for more units, maybe in the next RFP?
We haven't -- we haven't, Brian, but it is a greenfield site. And we'll disclose that here shortly. A matter of fact, many of the questions associated with Laurel and esVolta will be covered, of course, in our filing that we're going to make in mid-May.
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aa1ab943bc754ad67aa45fc305d3ce86
Is there any discussion at the Commission or the legislature regarding earnings and sort of imputed return on PPAs going forward?
There -- yes, there has been discussion on both sides of the subject. Commissioners have spoken to it over a number of years favorably. It was a point of debate in the legislature and number of legislators spoke up against it. As you know, it's something that a number of electric companies are now requesting and receiv...
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3ae638cd1743741564c27bd88d0c833f
Hypothetically speaking, assuming that Montana Commission approves, pre-approves the filing, what are the scenarios of cost recovery and the return on the investment? Could it be a one-off filing, which added to base rates and reflecting customer rates? Or would you need to file an actual general rate case to get that ...
Yeah, actually, we used to include before our last general rate case, we used to include a table that showed the authorized ROE by asset, for assets that came in through the approval process. And so typically, the approval filing is, first of all, it's subject to an after-the-fact prudence review just to be sure we did...
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5b0f7b501e90cc087b0b0a4181bc6749
There wasn't much discussion on Colstrip. Can you just provide us an update there? I think you have a coal supply contract coming due in 2025 around the same time where some of the co-owners are looking to exit. Just curious if there's any update there that you can provide.
Yeah, what I can say there is that our existing ownership with Colstrip continues to be extremely important to serve our customers. Absent that, the capacity gap would be just that much greater. You're right. We certainly have been talking to Westmoreland about terms of the coal contract and we're focused on price. But...
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f6075af57cfdad035b164bdaf137f607
I saw Senate Bill 379 that's related to potentially acquire more interest and had passed the Senate earlier this month. I saw this tabled in the House Committee yesterday. Does this mean efforts to potentially acquire more Colstrip interests are like differently dead? I kind of thought it was dead last year after the P...
Yeah. What I would say there to be clear, our interest at Colstrip was always tied to our ability to serve our retail customers and not more. But certainly as things stand as of 1:30 Mountain today after 379 was tabled, we have no interest in owning an additional share at Colstrip.
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fe1aeebf83dc32bcd9ebe155d620544b
Could you expand upon your decision not to file in rate case this year in South Dakota? Was it just to be mindful of kind of the customer bill impact given the recovery of the higher February gas costs? I think previously you kind of indicated South Dakota was likely in 2021 in part to incorporate the new gas plant int...
Sure. I'll take this up for the rate case question. But one thing I would point out about 2020 is certainly I think, Jonathon, where you went is there is a lot of sensitivity around the country to customer bill impacts and where you go from there. The other thing I would say is 2020 isn't the greatest test period for a...
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fb755bd698edc5322de4231522f31e88
On the $17 million PCCAM request, is that just a standard like kind of annual update that goes every year under the way that PCCAM mechanism process works? Or is this some sort of one-off request that you're trying to update the baseline outside of a rate case?
I can take that one. So the PCCAM, we certainly can update that base. And just as a reminder, how that mechanism works, right, is you set a base and there is a couple of buckets of costs, part of the buckets of costs you share above or below the baseline on a 90%-10% basis. So we reset that for the last time in our las...
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e7a60d66948e9e1ffe91f9dc7f804378
The miscellaneous beneficial drivers of gross margin on both the revenue and the expense side during this quarter. It's actually just -- I think you said this, but just the absence of those miscellaneous headwinds during the same period last year, is that right?
Right. So, if you recall, Jonathon, last year, unfortunately we had to talk about our other -- and Brian as a very experienced CFO covered it well, but we had some items in last year that were non-recurring. They were detrimental in the prior period, so the absence of those in this year provides a bit of lift.
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afcd170d2bb3801c6d6f5f654dd8219b
Just real quick around -- just with the Montana generation, the $250 million in capex, can you just remind us if you can hit the high end of your growth rate on it? I think you guys seemed to have alluded to that on the four quarter call. And then just maybe how you're thinking about financing the $250 million.
I think, Shahr, you said two things. One, where would that put us from an earnings growth rate perspective. And the thing that I would remind you, of course, would be the answer to state would be 01/01/24, as that's the time you would see rates in place. And that's a long-term growth rate on an average. The other thing...
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8ab1333d040aa241330aae0079b555f0
Maybe a lot has been discussed already, maybe shift it, just talk a little bit about following the results of this RFP in Montana, where does this -- with the addition of these new resources, where does it leave you in terms of resource adequacy? And how do you think about the cadence of new and additional RFPs and add...
Yeah, Bob. Thanks. Sophie, I'd say this. We're not going to be explicit on exactly what the next RFP is going to be. We're continuing to evaluate as we move forward. I'd like to say from around rounding perspective, we're 50% percent there with this particular RFP. And the timing is, as we stated in the 10-Q, late this...
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And you're assuming that Colstrip will remain available to you throughout this decade? Would that be accurate to say or is it still sort of a consideration in future RFPs?
We certainly are assuming in the next RFP that we release that Colstrip is going to be considered during that time period.
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In terms of the 3 to 6 and the new generation kind of getting you above the mid point, is 2020 of the right way to think about the base kind of into the outer years here?
Yes, 2020 is the base.
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In terms of the decoupling and the efforts there to kind of delay another year potentially further, just kind of curious how you guys are framing the reason for that in terms of -- I mean, it's seemingly relative to most of your peers, you guys are one of the more sensitive to load impacts. So just kind of curious if y...
Well, the thing, Ryan, I would say is just from a decoupling perspective, this is something we agreed upon on our last rate case. And I think as you think about what happened in 2020, we saw certainly a fundamentally different load pattern as we are moving into that initial period. And so we had the pilot with the shad...
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In terms of legislative items, so with SB 379 getting tabled, and I know there was HB 99 looking to remove pre-approval earlier in the year, but anything else that's kind of on your radar at this point?
Yeah, we would say, again, other than 379, which had not been part of our original agenda, it was a good -- it was a busy, but a good legislative session in Montana despite all the challenges with COVID. One other item that was certainly important was to eliminate the CREP program, the Community Renewable Program. And ...
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We appreciate the update. I know this is a previous question, so I'll apologize. But when you think about the first 12 days of July until now, because you helped us with July comps, which is incredibly helpful, what would you say about those dining room closures and impact on trends?
Well, first of all, when we made July 12 decision on closing the dining rooms, we were a day or two before the mayor of Miami-Dade county, who then said that all dining rooms had to close. So we were ahead of the curve on that. The impact, we were not getting much in terms of sales through the dining room anyway. In fa...
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Okay. We're probably not surprised by that being 2, 2.5 weeks into earnings season. So if we take the July numbers and use those somewhat as a run rate, and I use that term very loosely because of the fluid situation, then I think we've concluded there's nothing dramatically happening dramatically different than when p...
That's correct as well as the drive-thru is one. The curb side is another, the online ordering and pickup and then delivery. And that's what's driving our business for improvements throughout this COVID crisis.
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I also wanted to let you know, we really appreciate the store level margin commentary because that's been something we've been taking and tying on a monthly basis as best as we can from commentary. So being proactive is fantastic. If you take that and apply the comp in those store level margin commentary, I want to tal...
Sure. So I mean, we are not experiencing a cash burn right now on a run rate basis. We had indicated at the end of the first quarter that at the comp trend even in the first at the kind of at the tail end of the first, beginning of the second that we were out of that cash burn situation. So as we said, at the current s...
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Okay. Yes, I made note of that and modeled that. Okay. And then the last one on margins. I've always gone back and forth on this, and I feel like I really hear both sides of it. But when you think about those alcohol sales, and it's a great run rate, is there any margin benefit embedded in that? Or is that going to be ...
Nicole, I would tell you, when you're doing $2 margaritas, it's not a great margin. So that's not helping the margin, but it sure is bringing in traffic. And with the increase in check size, we believe that the dollar ring, the net dollar profit ring is accretive, which is one of the things that's driving up our check...
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So really make sure we look at it as all collectively together, the power of that side of the business and what it does for the check and that's supporting margins. Is that the better way to think about it than to try to isolate it out?
Yes, correct. You're leveraging the labor.
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Thanks, and good evening. I wanted to start out with comps at Pollo Tropical. And could you share a bit more on what you're seeing across regions, I guess, more recently? But how is South Florida holding up relative to other markets for Pollo specifically?
Sure. So I mean, we tend we focus a lot on Black Box, our trends versus Black box. And the South Florida core market trend is in line with the Black Box market trends, as we said, in the noncore markets, which only represent about 25% of our sales, we've relative to black box, we've trailed slightly, particularly in Or...
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All right. That's helpful. And Dirk, I appreciate the stats that you gave on sales channels, and I wanted to just make sure I got it right for each concept. Could you share again what was drive-thru sales mix and delivery sales mix for each brand in Q2? And could you share where those mixed in, say, June and July sort ...
Yes. So it's I'll give you the quarterly numbers and then we can talk about kind of overall trends by channel. So the for Pollo, the drive-thru mix in the second quarter was 71% of sales. The delivery mix was 8% of sales. Those are both up significantly from both the prior year and what we consider to be kind of the fi...
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And can you remind me, while we're talking drive thru speeds, what are the drive-thru speeds recently or in the last quarter or so at each brand? Have you guys done have any thoughts on that?
Yes. I mean they're both down below five minutes, yes.
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Below five minutes. Okay. Great. Great. I also wanted to ask a couple on the amended credit facility and some of the milestones specifically. And the asset sales, I appreciate the detail there. I think you said it's 16 units. How many of those are Pollo Tropicals versus Tacos? And how many of them are in South Florida,...
Yes. Just a sec. We can give you that. Let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six. So eight well, it's half, eight units of Pollo Tropical and eight units of Taco Cabana. In terms of the units in South Florida, let's see. One it looks like most of them are not in. Yes. There are a couple of units in South Florida, bu...
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Okay. Okay. Great. Great. And there was also a milestone in there related to hiring an outside consulting firm, I think it was continue to serve. Could you just expand on what areas they'll be focused on? Are we talking store level or more focused on G&A? And is there a way to ballpark potential savings at this point o...
Yes. So to answer the second question, no, their work is still in process. Their focus is really around back office and G&A. So they're working with us, too, and they're a firm that's spent a lot of time process reengineering and process improvement with a lot of other companies like ours that have multiple locations. ...
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First question just interested if you want can -- you want to call out anything to think about in terms of the progression of earnings in the back half of the year relative to the updated guidance in terms of whether you think there is more of a ramp from 3Q to 4Q or do you think those will look relatively similar? And...
Yeah. Thanks, Scott. I'll have Jen give you detail. Generally speaking, as we look at the second half of the year, it's important to note that we're better equipped now clinically and operationally to make the adjustments as COVID ebbs and flows in the communities that we're serving and local counties issue different t...
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Got it. Thanks. That's a lot of helpful detail. And I had a follow-up just on the M&A pipeline, and I know that you highlighted that it appears to be strong across each of the business segments. Just if you could give us a little more detail in terms of whether you do see a bias toward any of the particular segments in...
Yeah. I'll give some thoughts and then have Derek kind of chime in here. But we have seen -- obviously, closed deals and we've continued to do that. We expect to be able to continue to do that. They've been in the home health and hospice space. Pure play home health businesses have experienced a pretty disruptive envir...
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Understood. And then last one for me. Just as we're working on our models for 2021, interested if -- so we have the home health and hospice rate updates for the industry, which looked quite positive. I'm just interested if you have your estimate of what the Pennant specific rate updates would be for home health and hos...
Yeah. Scott, this is Jen again. For our home health propose -- or modeling on the home health proposal, we're looking at about a 2.1% increase and on hospice it's about 2.2%.
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Good morning. I guess, first is a housekeeping matter to follow-up on Scott's question. I just want to get a clarification. In terms of acquisition, it's only these recent acquisitions that you're putting in your guidance for the rest of the year or is there an expectation for additional deals that are yet announced?
No, it's only the acquisitions that have been announced, Frank.
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Okay, great. Okay. It looks like the rate -- the rates look pretty good on the hospice side and I think you -- I'm sorry, on the home healthcare side, and I think you truly reported that to some of your early success in your patient mix and in your coding. But how would you assess where you are in that process? Is that...
Yeah. Frank, I appreciate the question. And I think what we're seeing in, as we look at PDGM and as we try to project out, it's a relatively small sample size, what we've seen so far. But we're very optimistic and we feel really good about where we're at. We think that's kind of the -- resulted from two things. One is ...
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Got you. Thanks very much. Maybe one on the senior housing side, obviously, you have the benefit of having a much lower entry point acquisition price on your deals. But I'm just curious, how do you think about cash flow breakeven? I mean are there -- is there an occupancy number that you just say this is the point at w...
Yeah, great question. So it -- the first question about what's our like red line. We don't even consider that. Honestly it's so low that it's kind of irrelevant for us. But I would just -- estimating I would pull it out at somewhere in the mid-to-low 60% occupancy range depending on the particular operation and its his...
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I just wanted to start on deferrals. I appreciate the detail in the slide deck. And I guess early read on redeferral rates is that there are pretty low. I guess, as we go forward, do you think that this is a sustainable rate that it's going to be this low or would you expect the redeferral rates to kind of accelerate o...
Well, I think that you saw this in our deck that we're at 24 second COVID modifications. 21 of which are tied to commercial. It is -- we are early in the process. This is just about the time that the first round of modifications would be coming back, if they were going to ask for a second round. We're -- and Tony, you ...
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That makes sense. And I guess, kind of, on the flip side of this, I got -- to provision -- the reserve build was a lot larger than you're expecting. I guess, I got to assume that most of the heavy lifting is already been done. Just how do you think about reserve build in light of this more modest pace of redeferrals. I...
David, Don might want to jump in on this too. But if you recall, I know you recall this that the first time we did our CECL analysis in the first quarter was probably the worst time possible, but at that time we also indicated that we thought, the build this quarter was going to be significantly higher. We said that mo...
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Okay. That's helpful. And then just last one from me. The deposit growth that you saw was tremendous. Just curious, the trends that you're seeing early in the third quarter, how much of this do you think is sticky and it's going to remain on the balance sheet and then maybe thoughts on how you're going to deploy it or ...
I'll let Don talk about deploying it, but I think I'd say to you David, if we knew the answer to how the deposits were going to flow, we'd be really happy about that, but it's hard to tell because, we have existing customers, they got PPP and just put the proceeds in their deposit account. We have new customers who did...
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I wanted to start with. Indirect auto, and just see what the driver was the decision to see the originations there? And if that temporary and related to the pandemic or if it's more of the longer term business decision?
Sure. Jackie, it was -- when we look at that portfolio, the default rates are very well aligned with employment levels, and as we've got in the pandemic, and it was unsure how long it was going to go. We saw high probability that unemployment would remain elevated for some period of time and when you look at the loss g...
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Okay. And how much of the consumer bucket is classified at that?
I don't have it in front of me, but I can look at up. I think it's around $230 I think but I was going to look that up.
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Okay. So then should we just expect the consumer line item to just continue to trend down as those loans pay-off and new ones are coming back on the books.
That's correct. Our run-off rate during the second quarter, I said $25 million decline, but if you adjust out for the originations that we did at the beginning of the quarter, it's about $10 million a month of run-off on from that indirect portfolio that was the actual in the second quarter.
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Okay. And that's a pretty good go-forward rate in terms of anticipated run off?
Yes. You know you always have the AM, and then typically people are also trading in their vehicles, and you have some payoff activity, I think that's, that's the wildcard as we go through the pandemic, does the rate of turnover change and all we saw new sales fall way off and then of course came way back up. So it's a ...
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Okay. So in terms of your growth discussions and I understand that these discussions are happening with a lot of play with PPP loans and customer behaviors in flux and also operating in the middle of the pandemic. How much of a headwind do you anticipate us having to portfolio balances?
Yes. We're approaching it Jackie as loan growth is just going to be generally flat. The situation we find ourselves in is obviously, it's a difficult time to be approving new loans with all the uncertainty around COVID-19, but there as Bryan pointed out in his comments, there is absolutely a pipeline there and we have ...
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Okay. And then I know that you're very attuned to concentration within categories and even concentrations within those concentrations. Has there been any other changes that you've made over the past couple of months in terms of what your company policies will be?
Well, we have provided the front line with additional guidance for all the food groups that we lend on. But just the concentration management system that we have is -- has kept us in good stead I think with our portfolio and really the only one that we had made adjustments on a couple of years ago was retail in anticip...
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Hey, how are you?
Hanging in there.
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Maybe on the expense run rate first. I guess, how much of the comp decline related to the deferral of origination costs under FAS 91 with the PPP loans? And guess what are your overall thoughts on expenses going forward with the additional tax spend, I think you were planning on having?
Yes. So again, on the comp side, we were able to take back and reduce expenses by about $900,000 to the PPP loans. But we also spent an extra $620,000 related to kind of bonus pay and over time related to PPP that won't be recurring. So if you net those it's under $300,000 kind of savings on the -- that will be higher ...
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Okay. And then just on the dividend and with the CCAR banks having to deal with that kind of trailing 12 month earnings relative to the amount of dividends paid. Are you feeling any pressure from the regulators to have to deal with that type of calculation, just given the loss in the quarter?
We have not. Don I don't know if you have, but I haven't been approached for anybody. No. We are monitoring the -- for one thing, the definition of retained -- Bank eligible retained earnings that make sure that we're within that guidelines, so we can pay dividends, should we continue to do so and we are well within t...
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Hi, Jeff. Couple of questions on the -- well, I wanted to clarify the -- you get 14.8% at risk and then 12.7% on modification. Did either of those balances include PPP? I thought the at-risk did not, but I just wanted to clarify those two.
The higher risk category does include PPP right, Don? You're on mute Don. No. So yes, I think it does. The 14.8% does include PPP. I'm sorry, sorry, let me, it excludes PPP, the 14.8%. So high risk is going exclude the PPP from the denominator.
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Okay. I -- Jeff, I was just sort of the tail end of your prepared remarks I though you stated restated the number, maybe it was on the modifications or maybe I'd just missed it all together. So I can move on. The -- I wonder that 24 loans that were granted second round of modification. What percentage of loans that had...
Jeff, I don't have a view into that and I don't know, Tony, if you do either? Yes. I don't think we have a good view into that yet. We're just kind of reaching the beginning of the expiration of the modifications. So we'll be -- I think we'll see a lot more of that as we go through July.
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Okay. I guess I'm referencing those loans that did reach expiration. You granted 24, I thought maybe to have the sense of a larger portion return to full payment. It maybe broadly speaking, I don't need the number, but I'm assuming that a larger portion did not seek a second round or it's just again very early.
I think it's probably safe to say that Jeff. I think there are some categories we talked about being the healthcare that we're not expecting nearly as many second rounds. That's when you take that category out that lowers it quite a bit. The overall percentage of modifications.
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All right. And then maybe varying into more questions. You will have a tough time answering. The PPP forgiveness space, anything you're modeling in-house in terms of how long you stick on the books, Q3, Q4 kind of end the year, how long these hang on do you think?
Well, I think initially we're modeling a lot of Q3 activity but with everything the rule is getting postponed and the forgiveness period being extended. I think we may see some of it in Q3. But I think we may see the biggest quarter probably in Q4. It's really hard to say how much will get -- overall will get done this...
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Hi. Thank you. I just have two quick follow-ups. I just wanted to clarify was that $150 million that you said was on a five-year period and on a two-year period for PPP? Did I write that down correctly?
Jackie, no. It's -- I'm just looking to verify my number here. No. We had it -- yes, 150 PPP loans for $6.5 million. So, very little.
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Okay, that makes much more sense. Thank you. And then my next one in terms of the provision for the quarter, what was the bigger driver of that? Was it -- shift between credit rates within the portfolio or was it model driven?
Jackie, this is Don. It was model driven. Again, most of it had to do with the economic forecast worsening from the one we used in March. We mentioned this previously but the one in March, things are happening so quickly, that we actually had put some qualitative factors to make up for the -- some of the lag time in an...
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With the uptick in COVID over in Europe and U.K. lockdown or locking down or maybe locking down light. Are you seeing any vagaries in the portfolio of assets over there? Or is it still kind of status quo?
We haven't really seen anything. It still seems to be very much status quo from everything that we've seen and everything that we've heard.
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And then just on the Johnson Controls acquisition. How is that deal sourced? And do you see more like that in the near term?
It was sourced through our normal channels, and we're always looking for those types of acquisitions. I think one thing that we've seen in the third quarter was we're starting to see a lot more deals in Europe than we've been seeing for a while and good deals. So we're watching those very carefully. And in the U.S., th...
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And does that skew industrial or office?
It skews industrial. Definitely skews primarily industrial.
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Okay. And then the tenants that you have had rental issues with, and I know it's de minimis. But was there a common denominator as far as asset type or tenant type that cross those?
That's a really good question, Bryan. And we've looked at that quite a bit, and there really hasn't been any specific area that's outweighed any other area. So we're very pleased with that. It doesn't seem like there are issues in any particular sector of the -- in the properties that we own.
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Got it. And just two more quick ones. On the G&A, it came in a good bit below our estimate for the third quarter. Is there something going on there? Or was it just higher in the second quarter because of COVID and rent deferral, legal stuff that you had to do or leased up? And what's a good run rate there, maybe better...
Sure, Bryan. So what I would say there is third quarter was little higher primarily from a legal perspective. COVID, as you mentioned, was one of the key drivers, and third quarter is a little more normalized than it definitely was the fourth quarter -- sorry, second quarter.
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Great. And then just lastly, when we look at the dividend payout ratio on a FAD basis in our model for next year, it kind of gets to the, I don't know, mid- to high 80s on a FAD payout ratio. And my suspicion is with an 11-plus or so percent yield, you're not going to race out to raise that dividend. But where are you ...
We're really comfortable where it's at now, and we're really comfortable with it drifting lower. As it stands right now, we have no plans to raise the dividend, but we -- this is something we discuss every quarter with the Board. And I think we're in really good shape with the dividend coverage and with the dividend pa...
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As we think about the portfolio -- sorry, the pipeline today and maybe even outside of the pipeline, you have those two stated transactions that are kind of under LOI, we know the cap rate on that. Where are you seeing cap rates may be for other acquisition opportunities? Are they kind of in that 7% range? Is it in the...
I think we can say fairly reasonably that the range goes between 6.5% and 7.5%. So I think 7% would be a good number if you were looking to round it off. But those are usually the ranges that we trade. And sometimes, we could buy something for an 8%, 8.5% cap rate. It really depends. But we probably will remain in the ...
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Okay. [Technical Issues] factor on investments, either just kind of structurally because it's harder to close deals, do all the due diligence or even maybe because it creates little more uncertainty in tenants or potential tenants are a little less willing to transact. I mean, could that impact kind of volumes going fo...
I think it might just slow down the process a bit because having inspections done and everything is slowing down again. So it may -- and this is in Europe, we're talking about, it may slow things down a bit, but I don't think it will impact the volume because I think people have a mindset of getting back to work and ge...
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James, I was just wondering if you could give a little bit of more color. You were talking about very select office acquisitions. Has the way you look it underwriting office or the conversations that you're having with potential tenants changed as a result of pandemic? Or has your definition of what is actually mission...
It's a really great question. And certainly, very, very good for this particular time with COVID and everything. We've been very, very careful for the last three years and everything that we've bought regarding office. We -- the type of office that we own is primarily what we consider mission-critical, which are like h...
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Definitely, that's helpful. And then maybe both for you and for Chris because it kind of touches on the funding side of things. You have some exposure in the retail side, which is clearly not a focus for the company going forward that I think would -- just based on commentary we're hearing from other companies, would b...
Well, as you know, we've been reducing our retail holdings for the last few years. I would look at us as an opportunistic seller. And I think the reasons you put out are good reasons. And also, we're really not a retail-focused REIT. So we will continue to be an opportunistic seller going forward.
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Hey guys. This is actually Josh on for Doug. Good morning. We saw the large drop in leverage in the quarter, and you mentioned on the call that we should expect that to tick up going forward. Curious if you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about target leverage at this point? And if we should expect it...
Our target leverage at this point is around eight, give or take half a turn depending on the opportunities and how fast we can deploy our capital based on those opportunities.
intermediate
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
B
df4102737c44e555f73650089e6fa78e
Got it. That makes sense. And then one on funding. Can you update us on how much of the agency repo is currently funded through BUCKLER and the average maturities -- the average maturity of that funding?
So approximately three-quarters of the agency book is with BUCKLER. And I suspect as we regrow our agency portfolio, that number will come down a little bit but we want to make sure that the capital at Buckler is completely utilized. And quite frankly, the rates that we get from BUCKLER and the terms we get from BUCKLE...
intermediate
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
B
e9956aa4d3d0f22f9281b55e072885ac
Got it. Are you able to quantify how much better those terms are versus Street repo?
Well, sometimes it's a couple of basis points better. Sometimes it's a couple of basis points worse. But if you add that with the factor that we have surety on overnight funding, I'm not going to do overnight funding with XYZ Bank because you're not sure if they're going to be there the next day. We know that BUCKLER i...
intermediate
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
B
7d5ff3822479a3feca40a5cc320c0e5e
Hey. Thanks. I apologize if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but with the credit portfolio, can you talk about sort of how you're thinking about that going forward? If your intention is to hang on to that portfolio or as prices have started to recover some in April, are you going to be looking to sell down that b...
Sure. Good morning. So the credit book, CRTs let's say had approximately, in early March, $900 million market value. The value of the remaining securities on our balance sheet today of non-agencies are only CRTs, everything that's not a CRT has been sold. And the CRT valuation is $308 million. So we've reduced that by ...
direct
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
A
882d5f68ab9eacab4232d33abf7af946
OK. Great. That's very helpful. And as you're deploying capital back into the agency trade, can you talk about specifically kind of what sector of the market you like and kind of what coupons the portfolio is in today? And what coupons you're mainly looking to buy? And maybe specifically, some color on whether or not y...
Hey. Trevor, it's Mark. So we've been looking at both 15-year sector and a variety of coupons there. Also, the 30-year sector, more of the higher coupons. So three and a halves -- like Jim had said earlier, most of our book is still four and four and a halves. The higher coupon stuff we had bought earlier last few year...
direct
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
A
efdcab6cf86689055ca941233cfede1e
Yes, very helpful. Thank you for that. And last question. It looks like there was some issuance through the ATM plan in April. Can you just provide some additional color around sort of the rationale for that issuance, given where the stock was trading and kind of where you're at today in terms of the likelihood of any ...
Sure. So as you know, our traditional approach to capital raising was kind of threefold, basically how can shareholders benefit based on a variety of factors. So is it accretive? Is it accretive to earnings? Can it be a good deal? However, as we entered April, there was not clarity on how the world is going to turn out...
direct
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
A