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@brydonrobert @dorfmanjeffrey with the two non gold box excluded, the question maps directly onto the "one and one two heads coin" version i proposed. if you flip a coin at random and get heads, chances are >50% you picked the unfair two heads one.
@jblowsmoke @elonmusk yes, yes it is true if a is flipped 21 times, the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is assuming a : the probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521
/u/bitusher: the key aspects as to why proof of work is so important and cannot be replaced by pos are: 1) distribution no scammy ico , premine or instamine is created and m https://t.co/xb2edfjmku
@brucehoult i started off using straight double-float probabilities, but often had them rounded to zero while hacking. i figure that learning to read log-probabilities, e.g. recognize -0.69 as the toss of a and -4.6 as a 1% chance, is a reasonable price to be done with that.
1939 golden gate international exposition san francisco world's medal https://t.co/wkut3sslld ebay https://t.co/32zm7k10gr
@stevendelduca yeah because loans are driving up inflation.. their swelling the housing market to create the money for these loans.. funny vaughan is one of the most expensive places on earth. the municipality must rake in a with land taxes.
to be fair, coin (the dragon) and i have been through a lot since 2003. (it was a college sculpture project. no references, just did what felt right at the time.) i sort of plop it whenever feels good. https://t.co/7n3jowf21z
@bosco4indy 0.5 assuming
@mattymatt1371 @starstrickensf @geodesicvoyager then it's just p=1 or p=0 (unknown which) tho, lack of knowledge doesn't magically make it a flip
@samswey randomness can look surprisingly bon-random in small sample sizes. i repeat this over and over again when i teach stats classes. you flip a coin and have it come up heads 7 times in a row. doesn’t mean that the coin isn’t a . weird stuff happens.
you might think that a would never do this poorly: but for all intents and purposes, he went 2-6.
people think that getting heads 7 times in a row means you don't have a , but if you flip a coin enough times, then the chances you won't have at least one streak of 7 heads is actually very small.
@c4llg0d if i offer you a game where you pay me $2 to play and then i flip a and if it lands heads i'll pay you $10, then it is still correct for you to play this game. if the coin lands tails, that doesn't change this fact.
@tunguz predict the toss of this
what’s the largest amount you’d bet on a literal coinflip (assuming , etc)
@nickwh8te @jadler0 @iamdcinvestor @epolynya the problem with celestia seems to me how they can solve the problem of a distribution. eth had pow for years before going to pos. how is celestia ever going to rival this?
in a random experiment, this is literally the probability of assignment via the allocation mechanism -- e.g. if you get a pill or placebo based on a -flip, your p(x) = p = 0.5.
@ed_shakes1 and that sampling error assumes a population that's all alike - a , tossed the same way time after time. but shakespeare's works aren't the same as the broader english language spoken by everyone from the king or queen down to the meanest peasant. they were intended
@btfd2021 if you feel offended your free to retweet and put words you feel like. my statement is zilliqa is not the best coin, it's a . you can take it or don't. but that's my view according to how it has been performing. later when it becomes the best, i will again twit if i want
@nickholtpodcast yet jinny’s husband is on yet failed with bush fires, covid vaccine order, climate change and the economy. he really is #scono - he’s scott no idea. at least premiers got the rollout done #auspol
@choffstein tossing now.
@nntaleb @thebondfreak on the other hand, 97.5% of long-only traders in $spy have profited year-to-date. and 0.4% that made more than buy and hold have reasons to believe they have more skill than those who are making 10%. https://t.co/lqprsvxlak
@honigstein say i have a and i flip it and you call heads or tails, but it turns out my coin had heads and something else. if you bet on heads, you have a 50% chance of winning, regardless of what's on the other side of the coin.
this lets you "run the program backwards." the random number generator returns both the value and the relative likelihood of that value. if you ask it to toss a ten times and *always get heads* then it will gladly do that but also return the likelihood as 0.098%.
@orionwl give 1000 such people each a , and have them flip it at decisive moments, and ~63% odds that one of them will flip heads every time and write a book about their success and how they believed in themselves or some bullshit
if i flipped a coin 58 times and got 30 tails and 28 heads, is that proof the coin is biased in favour of tails? or is that a likely result for a ? the novak-rafa h2h just tells us what we already know. novak dominant on hc and rafa on cc
p(x) workout: we have p(k, n) = (n k) / 2^n for a binomial distributed process. assume we toss a with p=0.5, what is p(x=10) where x is the event we get n heads in a row? 1/n
@chrisfcarroll no. a is a point prior on theta=0.5.
@stephensenn “uniform prior on a binary event” means it's equivalent to heads/tails on a ?
@robert69619951 @joshmeyerrx imagine a and you flip it 20 times and get 20 tail. this outcome is just as likely as any other outcome you can imagine (i.e. 10 head, 10 tail etc.).
@al8xr as in, even a completely will produce 10 heads in a row, but it's very unlikely to do so (0.01% chance)
everybody’s all worked up trying to figure out which ‘64 worlds janine gave egon. i’ve made my guess from a preliminary search and boy i hope i’m wrong, because that’s not a cheap coin to find.
@gwomaths what's a ?
@jamesroloff @asliajay_ @ercwl number of nodes doesn't mean anything? that has the selling point from bitcoin maxis all these years when talking about concentration in mining. pow removed but allowed distribution, now can move to pos with coins across mlns of wallets. leadership is not that bad.
also quite common for none of the actual outcomes to be near the average. even a flip is ev = 0 but a single flip is all or nothing. this is a reason many serious bettors bet in volume.
@vechainofficial another award for the team! invested in the number one science
@breadinmypants “five,” geralt replies, letting his eyes close over. “six if you count the one we saw together. got some … villagers said they thought they’d gone away for winter, but they’d been bothering them for a while.” he hums lowly. “not that easy,” the witcher - -
@binance fai̇r coi̇n %36000
@lethargicmeteor bayesians would say: “a was flipped, and i don’t know which way it landed, so the probability of heads is 50%”. a ‘subjective’ interpretation which treats the parameter (probability of heads) as a random variable itself, not fixed.
@mobiuspoker could i talk you down a rabbit hole on this one? say you flipped a infinite times: h= “lucky” t= “unlucky” streaks of either are likely. corrective streaks are likely, over infinite flips. but it’s possible for a t streak to not correct over a human lifetime, no? 1/2
i just flipped a (fair) coin. you did not see the result. what is the probability the coin is heads?
@tuurdemeester @coryklippsten @ownnothingbfree @adam3us @maxkeiser @nayibbukele @youtube @tracemayer 'really weird' it's the most emission.
@anellytics got it my bad i misinterpreted thought you were saying ot was the weighted coin. at yeah for sure agree. flipping weighted coin > flipping
@bewisecrypto1 @rob_gryn this is fair. coin market cap slacking i guess. unless the hero team is itself and never worried about updating it
@drjenmitchel @wallaceucsf if you imagine a game where i toss a , and if you bet $1 on heads and it comes up heads, i give you $100; if you bet $1 on tails and it comes up tails, i give you $0.01, and in any other case, you get $0, the intuitive thing is to just bet on heads. (14/x)
@wallaceucsf consider the simplest fair game, gambler’s ruin. flip a . head, win $1. tails, lose $1. start off with some initial $. your average holding $ with a small # flips is your starting amount. but with large # of flips, you will have $0 because you can’t go negative. /2
the law of large numbers is not something you should forget about. especially as a discretionary trader. the probability of you flipping 10 heads in a row in a flip is 1/1024, think about how many traders there are. are you really a god? or just lucky
@guangguang168 @decredproject the situation is a bit nuanced. excessive mining profit and asic centralization leads to persistent selling pressure at worst times. the block reward ratio is a science of experiment, should be adjusted according to market condition. last 5yrs of dist. good enough?
come one, come all! if there's one thing we know how to do, it's talk! ;} and then rush to pledge thy in support of the ultimate viking anthology, so we can bring you all of this viking (and hibernian) goodness!!!
@cubosco and not that i’m a soccer fan at all, but why wouldn’t a lesser team keep everyone back on defense and try their luck in a shootout? ot rules are never quite fair. coin flip shouldn’t decide any nfl game.
@econdavid @harisazizk @tjaldred i like the two sealed bids idea better as well, just because it allows both sides to bid equally. i'd like xis to be chosen after the bids are opened. this will probably moderate the bids. i'm curious about the significance of "you cut, i choose" if its a .
@marketcharts nice chart! it is a bit mean reverting, right? a constantly flipped runs into a "10 consecutive flip result" of 2 heads and 8 tails. some time within the next twenty serial 10 flips, it'll revert to 5 heads and 5 tails or even higher. markets adhere to this phenomenon.
@_b1gdawg @seldo not only is there so much thing as a , there is no way to know. but that’s a different discussion. and as long as the person calling it doesn’t know how it is weighted it doesn’t matter if it is fair.
oftentimes, the passage in which the answer to a yes/no question can be found contains so many rich terms that the answer is not obvious without further definitions for those terms; luckily, you can get always reach 50% accuracy on this task with the flip of a .
why is that? if s is our random set of n/2 potatoes, and t is the set of the remaining ones, what we get at each weighting is a bern(weight(s)/(weight(s)+weight(t))). if all 🥔s are created equal, this is a flip! but if they're not, then this is a biased coin... 6/
@seldo that first sentence is generally correct. sometimes. the second? the average person is—100 questions later—no one. more data can lead to less certainty. flip a twice. half the time you’ll find it fair. flip it 1m times you probably won’t. aren’t getting 1/2m heads.
@aspiringpeasant what is vet? what is pi? what is theta? what is peer-to-peer? what is proof of stake? what is democratic governance? what is a offering? what is decentralization?
also: if you flip a 100 times and experience a run of 20 heads in a row...that is akin to 'luck', not an 'edge' (or, bias in the coin; it is still random). so even if you got lucky once or twice with a stock, the vast probabilities are against you...good luck ;-)
@algostack1 not hitting my stop level, which is a good thing. to be fair #coin is in for its vc side rather than current ops. so down in the low%, high risk end.
@pff_moo @spe247k @leesharpenfl what if he is gonna flip a though
test tuesday! can you answer this question from our quantitative methods quiz? if you were to toss a 3 times, what is the probability that you would toss two heads? #testtuesday #financequiz #learnfinance #nyif #quantitativemethods
@kevinsekniqi @jbrukh assuming it’s a , we shouldn’t play the game at all (ev 0). same answer from kelly —> 0.5 - 0.5/1 = 0
on p-values: a rescaled distance of what you observe from what you expect under a model can never be controversial. that's like saying if you have a and do 100 flips, you expect 50 heads but observe 77. so let's ban the number 23 (=100-77). #statstwitter #probability
@mathtechcoach @geogebra doesn't need to be a either. could expand(3h/5+2t/5)^3 and get the correct probabilities.
it's far better to buy a wonderful coin at a fair price, than a at a wonderful price
@ihmzii @kadenafeed @shotsbymatta there were critics about this. but look at other tokens like solana. at the end btc is the most at all. completely decentralised. beside it is eth. but no one wants to buy it anymore because it seems to be to expensive and you can’t make that much money anymore.
@trustlessstate which “public goods” are prioritized on eth …reducing pollution externalities w pos or allowing distribution and miner turnover w pow? do you get my pt? even “utilitarian” aims need value hierarchies curious to dig in bc this is fundamental difference bw eth and btc
@10kdiver would this be the same probability as: if you flip a six times, what’s the probability that it’s evenly 3-3?
@danielteycheney @mythryll yep. i’m one of those consultants and make when it happens… but i still feel bad every time. my input is far better used strategically rather than as advice for a mop-up.
@behindthegreen9 yeah i thought so, for 2023 your point re sheens says everything on media commentary that needs to be. this deal would have been in progress for many many weeks if not months. but less rubbish heat is not a bad thing.
@pwr2dppl @nikhilbukowski people use the word odds colloquially & will say, like, what are the odds of flipping a three times & getting heads every time? & they want the answer "1 in 8" but for *odds* it should be, like, the odds of 3 heads vs not in this sitch are 1:7 so i just avoid the word!
1/ let’s find out a way to airdrop to active twitter followers to combat trustline farms which have made it difficult for distribution to unique users. here are some ideas:
all these "fair" coin offerings, isos aren't really fair - just a popularity contests in disguise. #cardano #cardanocommunity #ada
a social game for those scoogi holders who wish to breed the next gen (gen1) scoogis will soon be launching right here on twitter. this game will be a single elimination, provably flip battle between scoogers for the right to breed. /3
“everything else had a premine” “only ” “you can’t be decentralized and efficient at the same time” “utility/use case makes it worthless over time” “we’ll build it better on top” #btc bonk stick time https://t.co/pucb31szbo
if you want to support a buy in i'll chop half the winnings after the initial buy in :p no guaranteed no mark up...wait it's not a tourney still flip
@deljohnsonvc @aliciaparr @emollick one illustration of this idea: if i say i’m flipping a 10 times, and after 5 trials, i have 5 heads, p(tails) is still 0.5. this experiment still has a mean reversion, but history does not impact future p. (1/2)
@fivethirtyeight if i flip a coin 100,000 times and it comes up heads 53% of the time, and conclude it is not a . i only ran one experiment but it is not a sample size of one.
classroom library book drive additions thank you families #grateful #gratiku @maryleehahn @scholastic https://t.co/ih8puapcuw
@sanjithg_ skeptic here :) 1. auction complicates ‘’ to balance, w/out addressing underlying unfairness in t20 batting sequence. 2. value of batting 2nd is noisy, so bids become additional (non-cricket) strategies for overburdened captains. runs must be earned on cricket field.
with paytm ipo's retail portion being subscribed 1.66 times, there's a 60% chance lf getting allotment, more than a . let's see if the odds work in favour more than do for @imvkohli during tosses. #paytmipo #cricket #toss #markets
our coin jar war during book fair was a big success! gms pta was able to donate $1,004.23 from the book drive to the frisco threads organization. a check was presented to them during lunch the first week in november. way to go, gators! https://t.co/hloyrrmrej
4/ & obviously the price action of btc reflects this, it's really a war to acquire more wealth nothing wrong with that but to script this story of "the only ",& "everything else is premined" just great marketing imho..it was psuedo-pre mined & 1 of goals was 2 get rich
"bitcoin is the only where it wasn't about getting rich, too much moral hazard elsewhere" "everything else has a premine" 1/ bitcoin had a pseudo-pre-mine a simple laptop that gives you 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes for basically free that's essentially a free hand out
imagine thinking a premined coin is a 😆
@alexkontorovich here's another one for any fellow maths nerds reading. if mr x tosses a n times, and mr y tosses it (n + 1) times, what is the probability that mr y tosses more heads than mr x? and can you prove it in one tweet?
@alexkontorovich never gonna be all heads, so must be the other one. here is a great problem. you toss a and e(x) is the expected number of tosses before hhh comes up, and e(y) is the expected number of tosses before hth comes up. is e(x)>e(y), e(x) = ey or e(x)<e(y)
avi wigderson in number theory web seminar speaking on "randomness". checks if number theorists know any probability: flip, which of these events is more likely? https://t.co/vdvgyx3hgt
@bigbeerguy93 @promoguymi if you flip a , any odds bow 2/1 are losing. if most books are offering 1.9/1, it's not true that the book offering 1.95/1 is making a profitable offer. it's just a less losing offer.
@rudy_betrayed correct answer is 50% for a , given in your question it has already landed on head 4 times in a row. the correct answer isn't here. even if you mean what is the probability of getting 5 heads in a row, the answer is 3.125%. so only wrong answers available 😂
$lrc run ❗ https://t.co/o8wqf0ydkw
if you toss a coin 6000 times and it turns up heads, you probably aren’t dealing with a . https://t.co/uehzdsmata
@bscbombs @dogegayson great finaly
#pugecoin is next #shib and #doge real and fun 100% locked to @vitalikbuterin so much opportunity #crypto here
@hashamadeus price rise offers distribution. block subsidy is given to few. indirectly when they pay the bills they distribute to many.
@josie16888 @pursetoken you knew this when buying $pundix. it never was a in any way.
the only purpose for the block subsidy is distribution.
@dentsdelioun - - me , wasn’t too bad.”
north part (41 mm) of rain in one "fair" coin
@mymundanemind if it's a , 50%. you know this.