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stats class: "suppose you flip a 10 times." the "fair" coin: https://t.co/svcwzug7y6
@rapsreport @burnerp28817150 @omiester @joshallenqb not unless you have a , which the nfl coin is not.
#arqma⛓️of the people, by the people, for the people💪 we are diligently #working in the background to resolve delays which fall outside of our teams hands to strengthen the $arq coin, #community and the longevity of the #project. #arq offers a simple and fair #coin to mine.
actually it’s a
@urinatingtree only fair. coin flip own it for chiefs last week.
you always fucking call tails the coin is not fair even in the nfl and lands tails up more also nfl get a fucking why the fuck is it not 50/50
at 0-2 down in sets and 2-3 (0:40) rafa wins , must be some rot of record of a player winning from that position. his probability would’ve been ~ 0.5% from here. to put into perspective it’s the same probability as flipping 11 heads in a row from a #wow
@crypto_adastra @insiliconot if you toss a and get heads 4 times in a row, what's the probability of getting heads on the fifth toss?
@big_data_kane definitely. i love trojan horses like that. you can get a shocking amount of bayesian statistics from just asking “is this a ?”
then the spring by parts of a , and the ratio goes into the trapezoidal rule on the reasoning.
josh allen is not wrong. but everyone wanting to change the rules is a baby. it was a flip and one half of your team is out on the field needing to execute. everyone knew the rules before the game. get better next year. great game to watch.
@blancheminerva @sleepinyourhat @emilymbender doesn't seem so relevant to me given the context -- if someone asks whether a will come up heads or tails, it's confusing to say 'heads is a far-out and speculative supposition' unless i have strong evidence *against* heads.
@xtrmlivin @kp_show well of course any defense should be able to stop a td. but that doesn’t make it any more/less fair. coin flip gives too much advantage to the winner. at the end of the day, a team should be able to match their opponent. anything less isn’t technically even.
@chrsbakr goddamn you’re wrong too. how many stops did the chiefs get down the stretch? oh, that’s right…zero. but the bills had to get one in order to win? how’s that fair? coin toss won the game. coin tosses should not be topics of discussion related to anything worth anything
@jasonclark829 @chris_estes1 @tonygerdeman of course, because possession is determined by a 100% "fair" coin flip & the rule applies equally to both teams, which is the *only* criterion for "fair" in sports. why is this hard for you?
day 18 trying monte carlo simulation for the first time. simulated flipping of a 5000 times to verify that the probability of getting a head or tail while flipping a in 0.5. #100daysofcode #python https://t.co/amm9p1tnab
@itaisher it’s not unfair with a (by definition?!), but it’s not optimal.
@bluesh1rts @wewantthecup @thehockeynews the away team is fortunate to even have the opportunity to possibly win a fucking coin toss. the better team in the regular season, with homefield advantage, should just get the choice to kick or receive. they earned the right to have that choice, instead its a toss.
@tim42stark i argue because i disagree with the supposed 99% of football fans. i like the ot rules how they are. if you're that worried about the toss not going your way you should reflect that in how you play to win in regulation.
@aingaran @kbsbb76 @davehodge20 lol thats a ridiculous take, why would you hand the advantage to the other team after winning a fifty-fifty, toss, its equal chances. there was no advantage to the toss. quit crying because d couldnt stop 13 seconds or anything in ot
@thestonedchief @chiefsutherland they would of just kept trading touchdowns. at some point one team had to win if the coin flip would of went to buffalo they would be the team advancing. regulation play ended they had a flip chiefs came out the winners on both sides can’t be more fair that that.
@wes_turner @clintbowyer overtime is bullshit, coin flip is fair. coin flip is just to see who gets the ball first for overtime but the rules are what makes it a joke.
i was 60/40 on this last night but i agree. you get four quarters of fair play where both teams get a fair chance. it’s based off of a draw and luck at this point. may the luckiest man win a toss, and god bless
@whoisalexjacob that the lead switched so many times—leading to a 36–36 score after 60 min—shows that the @buffalobills and kc @chiefs were equally matched. tossing a is as good a way as any to pick the winner.
@indieboy22 @ajlyons631 @cryptopheresis @saquon it’s not a regular qt it’s sudden death what sense does it make for both teams to get a chance? you do a toss one team gets the ball so it’s up to the defense to get a stop. one team didn’t get to play offense because their defense stunk and didn’t even force a 3rd down
@sportstalk953 got no nfl team, so i won’t shed a tear. bad d to let them score in :13, but that was on a timed clock. ot, as it stands, doesn’t allow for that kind of equity. it’s unfair. everyone knows it. college rules are stupid, but at least fair. coin flip 😂
@manyatruenerd would be interesting to see a plot, but i'm sure that a staying that close to tied for so long is quite unlikely. a fair vote that ends up tied should do a random walk to get there, not ride the line.
@grimmcolin @bdoubu @jaxxtalks @brgridiron it’s a flip tho. what they need to change is giving the opponent a chance to answer back of a touchdown. that’s it… the coin flip is completely fair.
@gman416 ya. that wasn’t fair. coin toss decides!!! wow.
@alecrogers1968 @alexparkerdc fair, but entirely arbitrary, a flip of a decides the winner. fair, but less arbitrary, the current rules.
i get the desire to change ot rules... but you had 60 minutes to win the game and couldn't do it. you gave up a 3pt lead w/ 13secs left. u got your 1st choice on an equally toss and lost. then let that team drive 75yds for a td in less than 3mins....you deserved to lose
@beaubuckets atleast once make it toss out here deciding the game
@jasonareese suddenly death just doesn’t seem fair. coin flip.
@jakeallr alright so something just happened-- the most insane ending to a playoff game since one i'm *still* salty about😂 in both cases, the team with a superhuman player got a lucky break (winning a toss), and then... the superhuman did his thing and won a *fantastic* game
nfl overtime is not fair. coin tosses shouldn’t decide games. that’s so disheartening for josh and the bills.
sunday puzzle: toss offer, you start with $2 and you make $1.05 if heads, lose $1 if tails. if you lose your $2 the house tosses another and if heads gives you free $0.25 to continue. what's the probability after 30 tosses you'll be making a profit? (+/-0.1)
@pickover no, not one third. if you flip a the odds of heads is 50% no matter how many times it has been heads or tails before.
1939 golden gate international exposition san francisco world's medal https://t.co/jyhs09dzt6 ebay https://t.co/biigtnhct8
@bodiaugustus @sassal0x pow was a great start for eth as it allowed more distribution, for many other chains started from pos it didn't. founders of chains starting from pos distributed the coins to themselves and to vcs basically, now gaining even more power with staking rewards
@divbyzero i use heads or tails to manipulate wordle's self-perception into believing it is a with 50% probability of success.
@watsenaam probability of being that unlucky is 0.037% with a . icc up to shenanigans for sure!
@binancechain # 🪙
solution: sample i = i wp wᵢ set xᵢ = 1 for j ≠ i, sample xⱼ from a flip
@cmonmattthink i'd be completely satisfied to get at least 500,000 so i simply flip the until i do.
@srussell705 it is a binomial probability distribution but, unlike a , there is no reason why the probability of the two outcomes (land or water) should be equal. given how much more water there is than land, its way more likely that you will hit water (71%) than land (29%).
flip a as many times as you like. when you decide to stop, you will receive a proportion of $1m equal to the proportion of heads you flipped. obviously, if your first flip is a head, you stop there. but what if it’s not? how do you decide when to stop? #math #maths
like flipping a https://t.co/hdqmy3dco3
in addition to learning a great deal about probability, forecasting, forecast evaluation, and luck, the exercise provided the wonderful "feeling a risk" of real world events. i hope never to use "a " again. (2/2)
@arighna_chow after "reviewing situation" when you toss a , it "may or may not" be heads isn't it @tewari_virendra ?
@grey_monroe @jgschraiber if you flip a looking for heads, and then if you get tails allow yourself to flip only once more for a heads, the first and second flips are random (just not independent).
@nypost i suppose 🤔 i suppose if play my tour of doom yu-gi-oh! trap card, my opponent will never get to summon their monsters to the field every turn, which requires a coin toss. an unbiased, unprejudiced, toss. but what if tour of doom doesn’t work in my favor? what then?
i was thinking about 5-sigma discoveries in physics as another way to avoid p-values, and it's like they read my mind: 'discovery declarations in particle physics require “5 sigmas”, nearly 22 bits of information against h (corresponding to all heads in 22 tosses)'.
@greatmcgamer @tha_rami @mrkit2u but this gets back to my original point that people don't understand true monte carlo simulation. given a flip - if heads player a gets a dollar; if tails player a gives a dollar. given 100 games: what is the probability that one of the players is winning?
roughly speaking, this measures how evenly spread the probabilities are. a will have the maximum entropy of 1: -0.5 * log2(0.5) - 0.5 * log2(0.5) = 1 the less fair it is, the lower its entropy: -p * log2(p) - (1-p) * log2(1-p) -> 0 for p -> 0 (4/9)
why a "98.2% survival rate" is actually terrifying: a simplified statistical approach. if you flip a , you have a 50/50 chance of getting heads, right? so your chance of getting three heads in a row with three tosses is .5 * .5 * .5 = .5^3 = 12.5%.
@steamtraen @jamesheathers it is a bit. i scanned through white paper there and the method is a little odd. it's kinda like assuming that your odds of getting a heads after 2 flips is 1, because it's 2(1/2) which of course isn't right. i'm dubious about it
#cardano is one of the most decentralized projects in cryptocurrency thanks to #pos and distribution at the beginning of the project. #pow is slowly moving towards centralization and the coins of many projects are held by the team and vcs. $ada
@route2fi i guess you don't care about decentralisation and distribution as a crypto foundation.
@phdemetri put a different eay, for what value of k, where k is the number of heads observed, do you reject a model after n flips of said coin?
who’s got the best screen shot of the 1964 world’s ? let’s see it. also, @hasbro, find the right one and sell plastic versions for $5 each and #ghostbusters fans will go crazy for them.
@davejam34464462 @janeychunkerss2 @jerry_page01 it's serves a purse,,😜😜🤣🤣🤣
in this context, which is driving community case rates so high that anyone who pcr tests for covid is more likely to have covid than if they tossed a , i can see no possibility of schools staying open. they are a venue where the population is mostly unvaccinated.
@abogadoluchador @ryanneathawk @noahkaufmanmd also to be market cap probably got the max supply from the white paper section 4.1 it says "new total circ supply pist swap 295.5m" but that's just saying what the increased supply will be after lgo is swapped for new vgx 2.0. so if every lgo gets swapped it will bethat
@hugobowne what about continuously flipping the same (fair) coin?
if i toss a , what are my chances of getting head?
@jeffkcollins find me a video or some physical proof of a landing heads 100 times in a row, it doesn’t exist
@jeffkcollins a would never land on heads 100 times in a row. something is rigged at that point
@azizas awesome! closely related to the "von neumann trick" to get a toss out of biased coins: https://t.co/mau4ivhnd9
@aidanodr @newschambers it's rather amazing. if you do manage to secure a test, you know it's more likely too be positive before taking it than a toss.
if a lands heads 100 times in a row, what’s the probability it lands heads again on the next flip?
6 days to #ravencoin halvening .. don't sleep on this old hidden gem ! most undervalued #altcoin on market, lot of use case, one of most distributions, still possible to mine with gpu. not everuthing what is old is bad. $rvn has s till lot to say !
@dummybm worse than a toss. what it, along with the incredibly high case rates, higher than anywhere else in europe, is that some child in your child's classroom will have covid. every day.
faster program for a159061: nearest integer to the expected number of tosses of a required to obtain at least n heads and n...
@artursepp matches the distribution of random long/short $spy traders for 2021. https://t.co/mfafeoynvo
a tosses a 20 times; b tosses the coin 21 times. what is the probability that b will have more heads than a ?
@nimbalfrocke what is a four-sided die? dice have six sides. a heads or tails is 1/2 for a . a side of a die is 1/6 for an unloaded die. you have a 1/6 chance on each roll of getting a septic face. formulas are hard here.
@nimbalfrocke the probability of getting two heads in a row in a toss is 1/4.
@analystegg matches well the performance of random $spy traders long/short with as per my article yesterday. https://t.co/k34pguuaml https://t.co/hhafstnsyb
@rt99cammie if you flip a all day (say 10,000 times) & on each flip get 2-1 odds so if you win you get twice as much as you owe when you lose, do you consider that a) gambling or b) making tons of free money? if your answer is "a" you are probably (not "definitely") not an investor
mendelianism is cool because it's a built-in lower bound to the impact of drift in diploid populations, that itself is only a flip because of the balance struck from a selection tug of war!
@elazy your intuition for how long it should take to be suspicious is wrong. after 1000 tosses of a , the chance that you won’t be between 421 and 579 heads is less than 1 in a million, so you should have been suspicious at that point!
@jamestanton per suggestion by @lacker, we can show that the # of pink sides follows a binomial distribution for 24 flips. thus, the probability that half the surface of the cube is pink is (24 choose 12) / 8^8, or approximately 16%.
another way to approach is, if a p=0.5 of heads/tails were replaced with a weighted coin that makes heads twice as likely, what's the new p for heads? 5/5
@llttlelark “old woman just outside of town has a wraith problem,” he explains, gathering his potions. “she’s willing to pay .” “shouldn’t be too hard… we can stay here for a day or two with the money and get more food.”
for example, identifying the outcome of a flip (with two equally likely outcomes) provides less information (lower entropy) than specifying the outcome from a roll of a die (with six equally likely outcomes).
"what if tails leads to a million additional wakings" - irrelevant. this is not the monty hall problem. the odds of a landing heads is half.
isn't it a tiny bit surprising that maximal credences in 2+2=4, and in a landed on tails, have the same degree of accuracy provided that the coin landed on tails? the latter feels arbitrary in mere guess cases. accuracy is indifferent to arbitrariness or luck.
@cpntbrrycrnch but what if i told you it was a and attested so / self reported to finra on a periodic basis?
results matter, but they don't matter in the short-term. it's like flipping a : heads you earn 60 bucks; tails you lose 20 bucks. in the short-term, anything can show up. but in the long run, you're almost certain to win more than you lose.
this obv. does not mean that tennis points (or deliveries in cricket) are literally like tossing a . but it does mean that that its a good assumption.
1939 golden gate international exposition san francisco world's medal https://t.co/kemswmot0x ebay https://t.co/nxj5klyu08
@the_scientist_y i'm trying to participate in the launch of avacado guild..the #eth fees make it impossible..even worse is people are losing hundreds of dollars when their transactions fail...#egld is best!!
@thetruemissrose so you don't weigh in past failures (bad arguments) in your belief forming? if you flip a coin 10000 times and it comes up heads, you do not factor in 10000 failures to come up tail to formulate the belief that it is not a ?
@weedinmygarden6 @nuj_th @mqsley @mattyglesias @longtallcity i promise you it is. read up: https://t.co/uwzxv6no0w a more relatable example: i flip a 100 times, you would expect to get heads 50 times. p = 0.5, 0.5*100=50. in this case, p=0.99, so if you had a 99% chance of dying, you would expect 99/100 to die, 0.99*100=99
@0xenity @bryptointern @balajis compared to other altcoins ethereum is good. but its nowhere near bitcoin's -distribution. in eth's ico many insiders/friends/vcs were involved. the distribution was not organic and certainly not neutral
let's understand with few examples the characteristics required to be in the top 5% in the #trading business. so there’s a simple toss trading system with 50% probability of getting a head, for every head we win 2%, while for a tail we lose 1%. -----a thread----- 👇
@geostatsguy @matplotlib if 4098 of your followers did this unbeknownst to each other with a (if such a thing exists) or the same coin: would they each reach the same conclusion? how many flips do most make? (requires a real coin no? or is merely one of ij good’s tautological probabilities.)
it seems like this is a well-defined probability problem but it's not! if the kid picks a path at random from the 55 possible paths, each with 1/55th chance, you get one answer. if the kid tosses a whenever he has a choice of north vs east, you get another answer.
@gate_io we want equivalent #coin for all! #btc is not anymore guys... and not eco at all! love and respect nature plz!
feeling like tomorrow may be bad. but, i’m also pretty reliably wrong about that kind of thing. overly pessimistic. so maybe it’s really a (fair) coin toss