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make a from a biased coin (2018) l: https://t.co/u1v0mfrqi2 c: https://t.co/ss3vrjwvpu
@ereliuer_eteer you didn't give me an option to flip a .
suppose that we are playing a simple game. we toss up a , and if it comes up heads, you win $1. tails, you lose $1. after 10 rounds, the coin came up tails 10 times. thus, you lost $10. do you have a bigger chance of winning the next round?
@wizard_of_ood 1/32 is close enough for government work, up. 3% chance, giver-take. and yeah, based on the simplification of a , ignoring quirks of sexation in sheep.
the probability of an equal number of heads and tails from a tossed 100 times is just 8%… if tossed 1000 times the probability of equal outcomes goes down to almost 2.5%. @omnicalculator https://t.co/xrvwua0l5q
@orthonormalist @thomashoufek @cathyyoung63 @morlockp the wills itself to average to 50/50, coins that refuse to do so are immoral
@rthfrdmn or an un? what if there was a process in which pepe finds where $p(\lambda| a,b) \neq p(\lambda)$? did he give up his agency then? 😉 https://t.co/xdrjo7dlb7
@sofii__r but that's not fair. coin irukuravanga illathavanga should participate in same task? last man standing thaane this coin task oda concept? #thamarai #thamarai𓃬 #bbultimate
@paul_l_hook "actually, better example to demonstrate. i offer you a coin toss on a . if you win i give you £100, if you lose you give me 5p. would you take it?" i don't understand why this is a "better example". refugee policy isn't a coin toss. a coin toss is simply luck.
@pilgrimchris actually, better example to demonstrate. i offer you a coin toss on a . if you win i give you £100, if you lose you give me 5p. would you take it?
are the odds really 1 in 9 quintillion for you to have a perfect bracket next week? nope...that's only true if you know nothing and flip a . how do you get better odds? read @sabyrk_'s story on @fansided https://t.co/qfkkcr0ws5
@dikshanator he will play them which is fair. coin mein bhi raaj dulara sid ne flip kiya also kv couldn’t cheat properly. munawar is at least bringing something to the table.
alpha just serves to formalize things like in the simplest case, how many heads do you need to observe out of 100 coin flips to say that is evidence to reject a model. everyone has such an alpha. #statstwitter #probability
hendley barked a laugh. “no doubt of that! but those sapphires aren’t sapphires, they're blue diamonds. the ring was worth a back then and apparently pawned for peanuts. it’s worth even more today." #1linewed @the_forever_man
days 68-69 #365daysofcode #100daysofcode #python two-sided p-value - how likely it is that your data would have occurred by random chance. let's perform 100,000 experiments and flip a 10 times to find the likelihood of 2 or fewer heads or 8 or more heads https://t.co/wuyqsimdej
@thecryptodog do you know everyone in bain personally to be confident enough to say they do not have an unconscious bias ? do you know the odds of women being discriminated against at workplace ? do you know the odds of flipping a 5 times and getting a heads all 5 times ?
80's day at gwynedd square to support our book drive. @jbashawnpsd @npsd https://t.co/snllukeowc
try our #playtoearn provably flip games today to win big 🚀 ☑️ p2p and house games available ☑️ bet with usdc or $bold ☑️ using @chainlink vrf https://t.co/y35jym0wlc #cryptocurrency #gamefi #polygon #matic #provablyfair https://t.co/f8sjgmdcbs
whoa! so, it looks like the lithuanian version of was finally published last month! (the author is always the last to know...) look at the cover of teisinga moneta! 😍https://t.co/ciotvu0pjd https://t.co/ktf5ecqcnf
if you don't want another 10 years of war and a higher price to pay than a little oil and gas, you should fight and pay back in . #putinsgenocide #ukraine #selenskij #embargo @secblinken @vonderleyen @josepborrellf @emmanuelmacron @abaerbock @jensstoltenberg
the hardcover pyr book editions of and its sequel, quantum coin, are out of print, but you can purchase digital copies wherever ebooks are sold and as audible audiobooks. i'm still wishing for a paperback flip book edition combining both volumes...
10 years ago today: happy 10th anniversary to , a genre- and dimension-hopping ya novel about a coin that grants wishes when you flip it--and changes the world. my first book granted my wish to be a published author, and i feel lucky to still be here writing new stories. https://t.co/ekspwhn3ze
@ladyofcrypto1 i have a to sell you. dm me.
1939 golden gate international exposition san francisco world's medal https://t.co/mbchdyveki ebay https://t.co/heypxjsv7p
@bitcoinoby @jasonplowery also there are very few wallets that own tons of btc so don’t say btc is some . yes no pre mine but look at ltc 🥵
@danrobinson if a trader owns a $0/$1 flip and the market is for some weird reason buying at $0.60, that doesn't justify letting the trader mark their position at $0.60. what it justifies is for the trader to sell at $0.60 before the mkt regains its senses. or reexamine the coin.
@danrobinson but if the market is pricing the value of a literal $0/$1 flip at $0.60, your risk managers still won't let you mark your long position at $0.60. because the argument is too strong that the fair value is $0.50 (and thus, eg, that the market will move towards that.)
create a simple simulation that models the toss of a . record the resul https://t.co/kyw9wgzq2z
question: if a is flipped 10 times, and you get 10 heads, what is the probability of the 11th flip being a head? textbook answer: still 50%. real-life answer: no way this coin is fair. it's probably weighted, and is gonna come up heads again. 100% heads.
@masterbtcltc guess i need to remove $dgb as one of the . we only have 2 $btc and $ltc.
life is more like with two possible outcomes when tossed.. simply put, you can make it successfully after many failed trials & on the other hand, the best thing might just be for you to give up that particular event & look elsewhere for alternatives to become successful
you see, ppl-- this is a depiction of a multi-player coin toss game. , unbiased distribution, blue player has more funds(!!) at the beginning. given enough time a definite winner emerges: #math #statistics $crypto #physics #mcmc #ai https://t.co/hb2vhu0ep3
@kentwellglenn @bluesgoose @pallisier needs to be a “fair” coin. 10 in a row. start backing it’s not fair and i back heads :) !
to illustrate the problem above, consider a simple example: betting on coin tosses. the dealer tosses a . if it lands on heads, you win $1. if tails, you lose $1. you have 𝑛 dollars, while the casino has 𝑚. in total, there are 𝑁 = 𝑛 + 𝑚 dollars on the table. https://t.co/nciot145fk
second, absolute value is not really the best way to measure differences in accuracy. consider: a sober driver is in an accident in roughly 1 in 10000 trips, an intoxicated driver in 2/1000. that's 10x smaller than the absolute difference between a truly and a penny.
2. market inefficiency is a necessary condition for superior investing. attempting to outperform in a perfectly efficient market is like flipping a : the best you can hope for is fifty-fifty. for investors to get an edge, there have to be inefficiencies in the process. https://t.co/mbduxkgz36
all else being equal, a possible world where i flip a and it comes up heads is as close to the actual world where i haven't flipped it as the possible world where i flip the coin and it comes up tails. does that sound right
@schotty918 whether i was pc guy or film guy when unpacking was a toss
some days ago with a friend we entered in a new project. a project. for interested people : https://t.co/9gnnejbiff if you have any question feel free to ask.
1939 golden gate international exposition san francisco world's medal https://t.co/grgdfv1gd0 ebay https://t.co/6euqebkpcf
@sjgraham @petagna i find it frustrating when predictability is trivialised to model-bashing. people seem to forget that the "most likely" outcome doesn't occur all the time; like getting annoyed at a that's just returned 10 heads in a row. the real world is just one ensemble member.
@metawarofficial
no black box, just provably flip challenge games using @chainlink vrf ☑️ https://t.co/xvchfyspzy #coinflip #cryptocurrency #chainlink #polygon #matic #playtoearn https://t.co/ogabkorn6w
an appropriate day to get my lucky world's from @frogbrospodcast #ghostbusters #haroldramis #egonspengler #frogbrospodcast #gb #azgb #azghostbusters #arizonaghostbusters #az_ghostbusters #ghostheads #ghostcorps https://t.co/n8qtjxuk0r
@grpwins @spanky if someone was taking bets on a toss and they made the line +110 heads and -110 tails, i would bet on heads at +110. if the flip lands on tails and i lose my bet, would your conclusion be that i made a bad bet because the “right side” was tails?
@kerrancejames @cbb_central this analogy isn’t perfect but if you flip a coin 20 times and hit 19 heads, your expectation changes. maybe you’re good at flipping or it’s not a . team favored by 20, wins by 50, your expectation of them prolly should change more than a team favored by 6 winning by 9.
@cultaholic mjf and orange cassidy are a pretty flip for me
@dylanarmbruste3 exactly! if we look at any individual game, we calc ~19% it could happen by chance if . by 95% confidence convention, we do not conclude a biased coin. now include all 3 games and calc ~2% by chance, so we conclude biased coin. this is an analogy for meta analysis.
@iabvek @tarasbob for time averaged brier, consider the question "will this question resolve today?", which on the basis of a flip either resolves today or resolves tomorrow. you can make a forecast today, and another one tomorrow
@dypfinance $dyp the that i prescribe to all clients 😻🔥 the most secure stage that consequently adding their prizes...
@acidshill @epistemichope being uncertain doesn’t change the thing with highest expected value, though. if given the chance to bet at even odds on a or a 51% head coin i’ll choose the latter every time, even with great uncertainty about which one would have paid out more.
the odds of 2 heads is lower than “at least 1 head”. assuming the outcomes a is 50%: the chances of getting 2 heads is 1-in-4, or 25%. there are 2 more outcomes to get at least 1 head from 2 coin flips: h-t or t-h. the chances of at least 1 head is 3-in-4, or 75%.
consider a random experiment tossing un two times where the probabilit https://t.co/loyz7wu1fl
consider a random experiment tossing un two times where the probabilit https://t.co/rmoy9zpyud
@forwardisfree although you cannot exclude 100% it is a it will fail a test with a 95% confidence region that this is a . so i assume it is a crooked coin.
toss a coin in the air and if you see the side for you to pick up, don't stop. harvey dent pepe is dying for a toss. @jaggedsoft @giga_chad_pepe
@rob1998oliver @littleoldladyw1 @carlostf50 given that in this case there were a number of different options around ‘tails’ some of which involved the coin exploding, and given the international definition of a tossing actually requires a second toss, the comparison is entirely fatuous.
a multiverse platformer?! i'm buying this day 1, obviously. and coincidentally it's coming out at the 10th(!) anniversary of my first multiverse novel, . love the nod to hugh everett, father of the many-worlds theory!
in a simpler conceptualization: > frequentist approach considers the probability of successful outcomes occurring after n trials with fixed parameters, where usually n→∞. (eg. in n→∞ trial outcomes, we will get heads from a toss exactly half of the time) (2.2/n)
fact: iceland and greenland were named in reverse as part of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
anytime someone says i die a little
@10kdiver c. if it’s really a .
suppose we toss a 12 times. which of these outcomes are we more likely to observe? outcome 1: hhthtthttthh [or] outcome 2: hhhhhhhhhhhh? here, h = heads and t = tails. and each toss is independent of the others.
@theformanalyst @akbets87 kelly is great if you are sitting there tossing a and someone is offering you 5-4. sadly real life is a bit more complicated than that
the uk royal statistical society conducted face-to-face surveys with members of the parliament. they asked: 'if you toss a twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?'. about one in two mps (52%) selected the ri…https://t.co/g4wbnkzgbg https://t.co/0zvnjoxowr
@jimpolzinwsj using the 6-pt margin of final score stat, we are up to 12 straight wins after beating iu. the analytics people want us to believe that these 12 straight wins are just like flipping a 12 times in a row, each time coming up heads. yeah, right. i don't think it's luck.
a is flipped seven times what is the probability that heads occurs exa https://t.co/wvgwjdjpav
@kilted_sailor @stethereturn @churchosaj @ikolobari @shahmiruk @carolecadwalla your friend doesn't understand the concept of things being independent. would you like a different example? i flip a . 9 times in a row i get heads. what is the probability i get a heads on the tenth throw?
@ole_b_peters @finallevel 😂 it feels it should be possible to have a meme along the > "hear-hear - ergodicity!! a game of , rewards win 50% if head, lose 40% if tail! space average (1.5+0.6)/2=1.05 increases *collective* wealth, but time average 1.5*0.6=0.9 decreases *individual* wealth!!!"
probability space /prɒbəˈbɪlɪti speɪs/ 1. a probability space (ω, f, p) is a measure space with a probability measure — for a tossed twice, define the set ω, a σ-algebra f on ω, and the probability of each event a ∈ f, p(a) (bonus, is coin flipping consciousness?) https://t.co/mlgtdlfcmx
consider the following experiment involving a and and 6 sided dice you https://t.co/id4jnegacl
@electionmapsuk @savantacomres its 1 coin. “a ” not two s. so its 50/50
election maps uk on twitter: 🚨 poll of 101 mps 🚨 if you toss a twice, what is the probability of getting two heads? https://t.co/omihsndmnj
@rachelsands39 @electionmapsuk @robertjwest @savantacomres it is stupidity - by their logic if you tossed a 1,000,000 times there would be a 50% chance of 1,000,000 heads and a 50% chance of 1,000,000 tails. how many brain cells are needed to tell that is not correct?
the question is commonly mistaken for a similar question of "if you toss a twice, what is the probability of getting heads?"
@electionmapsuk @savantacomres if it's a does that means there's a chance it could land on its edge? https://t.co/wypal0yjsz
🚨 poll of 101 mps 🚨 if you toss a twice, what is the probability of getting two heads? 25%: 52% 50%: 32% other answers: 7% don't know: 10% via @savantacomres, 17 nov - 18 jan. apologies to mps that follow me, but christ alive how stupid are (almost half) of you?
have you tried our provably flip game yet? we use the @chainlink vrf to provide a provably fair, on-chain result. try it out today and earn 1 bold for every 1 usdc you bet - https://t.co/xvchfyspzy #crypto #p2e #polygon #gamefi https://t.co/drm7tltq9b
surprisingly, while a is 50/50, the betting on a coin toss is _not_ 50/50.
according to an rss survey, 52% of mps can answer correctly "what is the probability of getting 2 heads if you toss a (fair) coin twice?" #improvemathsandstatsknowledge #westminster
the royal statistical society asked 101 mps, via an online survey (between 17th november 2021 and 18th january 2022) 'if you toss a twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?' 52% got it right https://t.co/dpmcvz1mfu https://t.co/uykf1p5rup
@royalstatsoc the question says a””. but we know politicians have widely differing views on what “fair” means.
@dkernohan this also assumes that it's a . which, under the circumstances, shouldn't necessarily be taken as read.
half of mps can't do simply 'probability tree' sums (i.e. probability of throwing two heads in a row with a ) https://t.co/zesijpkbuz
pelts would be sure to earn them both a , the alpha earning the bounty hunter well than over a few thousand credits alone. a beauty, had he not intended on dragging the carcass back to trade in. “by the time you’re done with the runts i’ll be through! but, oh well…”
when your kids bring in so many coins for @benignuskisd book wars, they all get to choose a book for the classroom library!! #happyteacher #mykidslovebooks #leopardpride https://t.co/qzu608log6
how much money would you have to be paid to flip a . but, if it lands on heads, you die?
wow! look at what a "few" coins from our pta book roundup challenge turned into for our school library. this goes to show that a little bit of help from a whole lot of awesome tce tiger families goes a long way! indeed, together we are better! https://t.co/wfjortcicb
@veterinaryrey @kevinglobes made you guys a little something for those sleepless nights - fair is fair. coin flip from uncle flip. https://t.co/qaanmulbcq
can a be used to simulate an arbitrary weighted coin, with on average only two flips? https://t.co/8mnc2uz5m6
fact: diamonds are made of a flip is 75/25 for heads or tails.
@breakitup3 fairness ? toss a coin a of course raffle based distributions of honors
@artistaffame @judylee81046752 thanks 😀 you gained a follower for your stand - i will put labor a toss of a in the vicinity of the lnp if they support this bill - it will cost many lives!
@coldxman lab leak is like saying a coin is fair and flipping 100 heads in a row. and then when you ask to look at this "fair" coin, i pull it away and tell you only racist right wing conspiracy theorists would think it isn't fair.
#genshinimpact background: i have won 14 out of 18 50/50 since the game released (probability of getting at least 14 heads out of 18 toss is 0.38% aka i am 99.62% luckier than everyone)
i happily spend my hard earned money to support creators who create my favorite stories but with y’all pulling this bs it’s ridiculous—let us continue to purchase and use ko coins on lezhin us or give us prices on the us site!! @lezhincomics @lezhincomics_us
@sciencepunk when monty hall opens the door he is giving the player more information. results of flips tell us nothing about the next flip.
@mrslisabaird a toss has two outcomes. if it lands heads up, i know it's tails down.
@jt_ldp that was a great call the other day, mate. capital elsewhere for me but hope you managed of it 👊
don't forget our book challenge for marillac st. vincent family services! the homeroom that brings in the most change will see their teacher wear a piggy and elephant costume on monday, february 7th! here's what is coming up: wednesday: dimes thursday: quarters https://t.co/t4or1cwrys