Datasets:
collingray
/
forecasting

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
id
stringlengths
8
25
question
stringlengths
13
209
description
stringlengths
0
7.87k
open_date
stringlengths
19
20
close_date
stringlengths
19
27
resolve_date
stringlengths
19
20
resolution
stringclasses
2 values
source
stringclasses
2 values
mani-DreezzZ09K5d4ee1E64l
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024?
2022-06-04T04:29:54
2023-12-30T15:59:00
2024-01-01T00:30:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GEP53ydAJ46Yf84KohdM
Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?
Resolves YES if Trump is charged with a felony by the grand jury. Aug 3, 5:41pm: Will Trump be charged by the grand jury in Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? → Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-05-29T17:57:56
2023-08-14T20:04:18
2023-08-14T20:04:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-m95EKsXs4a0DrK5I6hPw
If Boris is not the leader of the Tories, will they win a majority in the next general election?
This market resolves to YES if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they win a majority in parliament. This market resolves to NO if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they don't win a majority in parliament. This market resolves to NA if Boris is leader of the Tories for the next general election. See paired market: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/if-boris-is-still-the-leader-of-the
2022-05-29T11:00:12
2024-09-04T16:25:12
2024-09-04T16:25:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr
Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?
Based on this tweet https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1528991584309624832 Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates "object permanency" in the sense that it can resolve full object oclusions correctly(for example a mountain being temporarily hidden by a low cloud should still be there after the cloud moves) most of the time. If it's unclear whether some existing model has the capabilities by the deadline I'll use my judgment to decide how to resolve the market, and will lean towards yes in cases where the model mostly does it correctly for simple videos but fails at cherrypicked edge cases. Edit: For extra clarification published means that at least a paper or some oficial announcement has to come out about it before that date. Also the fact I haven't resolved yes doesn't necesarily mean that I think none of the stuff that is out yet counts, I'm likely going to wait until June in any case and resolve based on the best model avaliable by then, unless something pretty clearly counts before then (in case someone was updating on how harsh my judgment is based on seeing that I haven't resolved despite whatever model coming out). Edit2: Also note that the criterion isn't based on the original tweet and I might resolve yes based on my own intepretation of what counts as dall-e equivalent and "object permanence" despite Eliezer and Arthur considering Eliezer was right about the original spirit of that question . Edit3: By reasonable quality and non crappy I mean something like "dall-e" level quality not "gets hands and details perfectly right and theres no weird artifacts" levels of quality. Stuff like gen2 might qualify but will have to play arround with it or whatever better model replaces it by the deadline to decide. Edit4: I'm going to wait untill I have acess to gen2 to decide whether it fits the object permanece criterion(imo it fits the non-crappy requirement)
2022-05-25T20:50:21
2023-06-01T14:59:00
2023-07-16T20:55:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Zin8XrF40IxX0LG8qbvg
Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
2022-05-25T09:59:59
2024-07-22T07:35:21
2024-07-22T07:35:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RY7cIUtXhce4QAwPjqlk
If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate?
Question will be void if Trump is not running as of the first televised presidential debate. If Trump runs but refuses to debate then market will still be live (but he would then not count towards the 7 candidates). Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm
2022-05-25T07:04:17
2023-08-24T04:59:48
2023-08-24T04:59:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0FAJAfWknPeJY2B27NOS
Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote?
2022-05-24T09:27:13
2024-11-29T18:10:38
2024-11-29T18:10:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Yq84IROWgzYkY3a9s3zk
Will Russia invade Finland or Sweden before they join NATO?
Resolves Yes if Russia invades Finland or Sweden with ground troops. Resolves No if Finland and Sweden are both members of NATO. Small print: I will not trade in this market. If neither condition occurs at market close I may resolve N/A or extend the close date.
2022-05-24T05:47:27
2024-03-07T11:56:53
2024-03-07T11:56:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GAi3QVP8sTF1e4pyjCDv
Will aisafetyideas.com reach 200,000 total unique visitors in a year?
aisafetyideas.com is a page that collects and showcases shovel-ready AI safety and governance project ideas. As development goes along, it will facilitate crowdsourcing ideas, mentorships, expert validation, funding and more. The reason for 200,000 total unique visitors as the first question is because it is an understandable metric even before the launch of a platform (i.e. evaluated first on the idea itself). The theory of impact for aisafetyideas.com is to provide easy access for ML engineers and ML researchers to AI safety and it will be advertised outside of the core field in probably about 3 months, i.e. this will reach more than the 5,000 that might visit from effective altruism. PS: It is not a key value indicator for our org (Apart Research) and more markets are on the way for those. **Note**: As of opening this market, we are 1.5 weeks into development. The website is not currently open and the `/open` page will be connected to our data sources as we open the main app. The idea for this prediction market is to see how the predictions change with feature improvements and public announcements. Links: - The main site: https://aisafetyideas.com - The data site: https://aisafetyideas.com/open
2022-05-21T14:35:36
2023-05-20T21:00:00
2023-05-21T03:39:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gCFMraDRTKwOr2l7zzJF
Will the European Union have an official army by 2024?
Will the European parliament votes into being a military organization that is at least on the same spectrum as NATO, i.e. international military cooperation and with military obligations. Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm
2022-05-21T12:01:04
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-02T00:32:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dDfeqmR0QHI4CxnlwXx2
Will a blockchain-based social network have a million users by June 2023?
Resolves yes if a social network which operates primarily on a blockchain has had at least a million users by the end of May 2023.
2022-05-18T17:51:07
2023-05-31T15:59:00
2023-06-08T08:23:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mzdjvf78ulZXyWhW1kRE
Will Starship launch at least 5 orbital payloads in 2023?
Resolves YES when Starship makes its 5th successful launch bringing any amount of payload to orbit in 2023. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 if it fails to make 5 such launches.
2022-05-16T20:54:54
2024-01-01T09:18:26
2024-01-01T09:18:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gvkmgQxDPetjWKovT7hU
Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2024?
2022-05-15T18:41:17
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-03T09:35:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r7bVXiT8lsJV8nbEC7X0
Will there be a new trillion-dollar company before 2025?
Currently Wikipedia lists 7: PetroChina, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Will there be a new one by the end of 2024?
2022-05-15T16:37:48
2023-06-10T18:37:48
2023-06-10T18:37:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lwKs2O7IGZ2RV32LecIA
Will SpaceX IPO before 2024?
Resolves "Yes" if SpaceX IPOs on or before December 31st 2023. Jun 3, 8:54am: Note: If Starlink as a separate entity IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO".
2022-05-15T06:18:52
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:24:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jPzpDf325yc894VLZX6d
Will Apple announce an iPhone with a USB-C port by the end of 2023?
2022-05-14T12:13:28
2023-10-05T07:50:20
2023-10-05T07:50:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GLausyWsRnJarLwQXSjB
Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if one can purchase a cultured meat product (a.k.a. "cultivated meat", "lab grown meat", etc.) in a major grocery chain store in the US. Non-cell based mock meats, like the Impossible Burger, do not count. Sep 23, 6:59pm: Clarifying resolution criteria: I'd resolve YES if any of the following occur: A major grocery store (Whole Foods, Walmart, Kroger, etc.) started carrying cultured meat in >10 stores There are at least 5 major cities in which it's possible to purchase cultured meat (e.g. through specialty grocery stores) I can order cultured meat online and have it delivered. -- In this case, I'd also add the condition that the price be within an order-of-magnitude of "normal" meat products, to guard against technically matching this by offering a $1k burger orderable online.
2022-05-11T19:53:17
2023-12-30T23:59:00
2023-12-31T16:22:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lZqdu3dgDaiwblzMvsfc
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
More specifically: A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery) B) least 20% of randos know what they are
2022-05-10T16:42:33
2025-01-03T13:56:37
2025-01-03T13:56:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-126lM0zmrovjdBX9sPcg
Will USDC depeg before May 9 2023?
This market resolves to "YES" if the price of USDC, as given by https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/, drops below $0.90 at any time before May 9 2023.
2022-05-09T21:47:08
2023-03-11T02:42:42
2023-03-11T02:42:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IJilwdlpGe27QLGsNPie
Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm
2022-05-09T16:58:13
2023-04-25T04:59:10
2023-04-25T04:59:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
Impressive, worrying analysis by @MatthewBarnett in a Facebook post. FAQ 1. What if China invades some of Taiwan's outer islands? That doesn't count. It needs to be an invasion of mainland Taiwan.
2022-05-09T08:45:38
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:38:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9ASTEblGCTmlcoz7WFom
Will Cannabis be decriminalised in the UK before 2025
2022-05-08T08:55:10
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T14:59:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xwqq7ruHRCqCRYMY3Taa
Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2023-05-13?
Resolves Yes if SCOTUS judges have term limits, whether imposed by Congress or self-imposed. This includes any sort of time limit, age limit, case limit, session limit, etc. It includes limits that only apply to future judges. Resolves No otherwise. Small print: I will not trade in this market. I will handle edge cases according to my best judgment, feel free to ask resolution questions in comments. Mar 23, 10:23pm: Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by mid-2023? → Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2023-05-13?
2022-05-06T05:45:59
2023-05-13T18:14:30
2023-05-13T18:14:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ktrJqjdGnIuwYY3OL6JQ
Will any of the following be unbanned from Twitter within the next two years: Milo, Ricky Vaughn, TEN_GOP
This market resolves to yes if ANY of the following are unbanned from Twitter within the next two years. It resolves to no if none of them are unbanned. See also David Glidden's markets
2022-05-05T17:27:11
2023-12-06T11:55:26
2023-12-06T11:55:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CgYyeLT415splYjNVWrR
Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024?
S&P 500 hit its all-time intraday high on Jan 4th 2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500 At the time of writing it has been moving between the ranges of 4050-4300 Will it surpass that in the next year and a half before 2024? Are we due for a bullish or bearish season after a couple years of accelerated growth?
2022-05-04T05:19:28
2023-12-29T13:22:30
2023-12-29T13:22:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6vcxQStiyBaH4IO2FwN6
Will the Activision-Microsoft deal fall through because of regulator actions?
Will resolve yes if government regulators file a regulatory law suit or other action and the deal falls through Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm
2022-05-02T08:26:19
2023-10-14T14:31:16
2023-10-14T14:31:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mYapS6JRf76r4epqAvto
Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10790/dnipro-under-russian-on-june-1-2023/
2022-05-01T03:59:36
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-06-04T13:18:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0y6IcfNvoTNyfHnAoPVy
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2023?
Sony and Microsoft have released their next-gen consoles already, the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X/S, as of 2020. However, Nintendo so far has been continuing to pour their efforts into the Nintendo Switch, which was released in 2017. Rumours abound of a "Switch Pro" or even a brand new console, but so far have only been speculative. When will Nintendo release it? Fine print: In order to count as a successor to the Switch, this console must be clearly intended as the next major console in Nintendo's lineup. It must have the ability to have interchangeable games in it, such as via download and/or physical game cartridges or disks. Nintendo and/or third-party developers must be developing and/or planning to release new games for the console. A "Switch Pro" that can play Switch games will also be considered a resolution to this question, if it has enhanced processing power or additional features that mean that certain games can only be played on the new hardware, or have enhanced features when played on the new hardware.
2022-04-30T20:05:55
2023-12-31T17:19:06
2023-12-31T17:19:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-a0FIY3VNQ3K7hSnYuCxi
Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/
2022-04-23T03:52:19
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:49:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MoBaLWG966ltagA4PCwY
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastapol on January 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/
2022-04-23T03:50:33
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:49:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LG57fF7YqAPNEe08bTYh
Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/
2022-04-23T03:48:33
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:50:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rNRbnWEiXvkwstFI772V
Will blockchain tech find a killer app by the end of 2023?
Examples of things that would make this resolve to YES: Crypto as an actual currency goes mainstream, like normal people buying actual things with it, not just speculating DAOs emerge as a common/better way to run organizations Blockchain becomes a common/better way to track property ownership Manifold moves to crypto? FAQ 1. By when exactly? December 31, 2023. 2. Doesn't such-and-such already count? I'm arbitrarily saying that nothing as of April 2022 counted yet. If there's something since then that you think should count, make your case in the comments. 3. What does "going mainstream" or "normal people" mean? I have in mind to poll my less technical friends and family and say it counts if at least 10% of them are using the killer app. So far this is 0% as far as I know but, again, make your case or suggest a specific thing to poll about in the comments. (See also question 6 about the bias here.) 4. What does "a common or better way to run organizations" mean? For this I have in mind to poll my startup friends and say this counts if I can find 2 examples of people I know personally opting for a DAO in lieu of the traditional Delaware corp + English-language incorporation documents, etc. And they have to have opted for it because it was actually the business-savvy decision. 5. And "common/better" in the context of tracking property ownership? I'll count it if I can find 2 examples of blockchain-based tracking of ownership that is treated as canonical. Canonicalness means that if the blockchain-based records were to disagree with other records, there's reason to believe that the blockchain version is the one that would win out. And, again, only examples where I know the people involved and they're using the blockchain tech because it's what's actually most practical. The idea is to use this as a proxy for being such a killer app that it's very widespread. 6. What if it's very widespread, just outside your bubble? Penetrating my bubble is how I'm operationalizing the question. I'm an American, living in Oregon, startup founder and former academic. I know lots of people into crypto, lots of AI people, rationality people, I'm an investor in Manifold -- I think penetrating my bubble is a fine proxy for this question.
2022-04-22T14:25:06
2023-12-31T23:30:27
2023-12-31T23:30:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NeTSYqiSamaZ1GlAISvT
Will Jen Psaki be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president?
On the April 22nd, 2022 episode of The Prediction Trade, tastytrade founder and co-CEO Tom Sosnoff stated that he would like to put his money on Biden's White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki at 1% to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024: https://youtu.be/SjTAWjlrNHQ?t=2264 This market will resolve YES if Jen Psaki is the 2024 Democratic nominee for president.
2022-04-22T05:48:25
2024-08-06T03:33:24
2024-08-06T03:33:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eoWDVo2SG1XbwxBx2shA
Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?
"Trillion+ dollar impact" is a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans Superhuman art; people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art AI generating wholly new science/tech Level 4 self-driving cars fairly ubiquitous Level 5 self-driving cars available in some places (A technological singularity is irrelevant for betting purposes) In case it's hard to quantify the impact in dollars, the following is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this market resolving YES: I ask friends/family who pay zero attention to AI developments and they are extremely aware of the thing.
2022-04-20T16:12:27
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-06T13:59:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-s4dyAtxQzWCYXoRXC3kN
Will Keir Starmer be leader of the UK Labour Party going into the next election?
This resolves YES if Keir Starmer is leader of the UK Labour party going into the next election, currectly scheduled for 2nd May 2024. Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am
2022-04-20T09:46:08
2024-07-04T11:44:43
2024-07-04T11:44:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-04-18T15:20:37
2024-10-01T00:00:00
2024-10-01T09:08:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6OBoL5PaXGDWUGXB4JE6
Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025?
Resolves if, before 2025, it becomes general consensus that a third world war has begun. "World War 3" or "The Third World War" has to be the common popular term people are using to refer to it, especially e.g. world leaders, wikipedia page, etc. And it can't just be like, a one-off article in VOX or something, it has to be a pretty universal sentiment. #War #Politics
2022-04-16T22:05:03
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-11T10:02:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3e6UUeOvJLrXJpFy3TN7
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before Nov 5, 2024?
Vox: What we know about the Hunter Biden Investigation https://www.vox.com/23012186/hunter-biden-investigation-tax-fara "The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and the Associated Press have all published stories in recent weeks with a similar theme: the investigation, run by the US attorney’s office in Delaware, has gotten increasingly active, with witnesses testifying to a grand jury. The investigation focuses on Hunter Biden’s well-compensated work for foreign interests over the past decade or so, particularly for businesses or tycoons in Ukraine, China, and Kazakhstan. The main legal questions appear to be whether Hunter violated tax laws, committed money laundering, or acted as an unregistered foreign lobbyist." A similar question already exists for 2022 (https://manifold.markets/dadonk/will-hunter-biden-be-indicted-in-20-90e270df1fb8). The purpose of this question is to expand the time range, and see if an indictment will happen before the next presidential election. This is identical to the question on Metaculus, which is currently the only one posted there about a Hunter Biden indictment. A major purpose here is also to differentiate/calibrate the probability between the two platforms. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ The market will resolve positive if a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing an indictment of Hunter Biden exists before November 5th, 2024. The market will otherwise resolve negative on the aforementioned date.
2022-04-15T15:01:31
2023-09-15T11:23:26
2023-09-15T11:23:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xdTheCSphJ3SWD88HU67
At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/
2022-04-14T18:21:16
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:51:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QcDI0yu0TeWZxJlIVuSs
Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?
Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm
2022-04-07T20:34:03
2023-04-07T20:59:00
2023-10-15T22:05:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mg9ZfHDza1h1r5Fm4CRS
Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10556/50k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/
2022-04-07T18:41:39
2023-08-10T04:16:12
2023-08-10T04:16:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JMNAK3bqzXBgHZcJEH11
Will a second U.S. Supreme Court Justice publicly announce they are retiring any time during President Biden's first term in office?
This market will resolve yes if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice makes their own public announcement they are retiring while President Biden is still in office during his first term (up until January 20, 2025.) If a Justice dies or leaves the court in some other manner than retirement, this market will resolve no. If no Justice announces their own retirement, this market will resolve as no. If President Biden retires or is no longer President due to some other circumstance before the end of his first term and a Justice has not announced their retirement by that point, this market will resolve as no.
2022-03-22T20:18:05
2025-01-20T21:59:00
2025-01-28T09:46:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aNbn9YBmbozzNDeu50RH
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist
Dependent of whether or not that the winner self-describes as a "socialist" regardless of what polices advocated or record. "Democratic Socialist" counts as well. Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm Mar 23, 11:17am: for transparency: I set the close date till after the election is likely to be certified. I accidentally set it for next week,my apologies
2022-03-22T13:00:58
2024-11-08T10:31:08
2024-11-08T10:31:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BY2t3Ha9fxwPKwMOtfYL
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/ Expected to resolve around Feb 1, 2024. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-17T20:20:12
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-10T14:48:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bddHrqzJnTxFnTqSfF5n
Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/ Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2024 Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-17T20:00:58
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:52:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-onhTHDgQVDpX6V5inItM
Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-17T19:50:53
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:54:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024
Like my other demographic presidential markets this will resolve based on whatever gender the victor self-identifies as, so a transwomen count as well.
2022-03-17T14:07:49
2024-11-14T22:32:24
2024-11-14T22:32:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ioGfapCQqG60GUcSWXr5
Will the United States participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
This market resolves to YES if the United States is listed as an official participant in the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest. Guest or "one-off" appearances as a competitor are included (e.g. Australia in 2015). Performances as an interval act resolve to NO. For example, if the winner of American Song Contest performs on stage during one of the shows, but they are not a competitor in the contest able to receive votes, that would resolve to NO. With the EBU developing this year's American Song Contest, US participation in Eurovision in the near future is a distinct possibility. Tentative closing date set to 23:59 UTC May 31st, 2023, however expect this to resolve by the heads of delegation meeting likely sometime in March 2023, but potentially as late as the final sometime in May 2023.
2022-03-16T17:54:13
2023-05-15T11:22:28
2023-05-15T11:22:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-roaiUgvr0F1XZC2oUpca
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White?
The United States elected it's first non white president in 2008 with Barack Obama. Will the United States do it again in 2024 Mar 17, 12:28am: Just so we are clear this also includes White Hispanic/Latinos Mar 17, 3:47pm: Whatever race the victor self-identifies as is what is used for the purpose of this market.
2022-03-16T07:35:18
2024-11-08T10:28:39
2024-11-08T10:28:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kFXBY3TQn6svVdQyqEWF
Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/ It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES. FAQ 1. What if only some states do this? This is a prediction about what happens at the federal level. Individual states can opt out without affecting how this market resolves. 2. What if a law is passed but then it's reversed? If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that. (Ask more questions in the comments! Or holler if anything above seems wrong.)
2022-03-15T12:44:22
2023-12-31T18:31:11
2023-12-31T18:31:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QC2WmlZF8EnhKtrGLs9B
Elon Musk will have fathered at least 10 children by 2030
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, SpaceX, etc. will have sired / fathered at least 10 biological children by the year 2030. As of 2022-03-10, he has 7. To qualify for the count, the children must be at least in the 2nd trimester. Mar 10, 1:23pm: Musk's first-born child Nevada was not counted initially at the time of market creation, so please assume either Nevada as not qualifying or the threshold being 11 if qualifying. Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 am Mar 11, 7:50am: thanks Rutger, sorry - I made a mistake. updated to 01/01/2030.
2022-03-10T13:23:27
2023-10-12T20:37:46
2023-10-12T20:37:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RWkGpp89ic4v2ER5NiJp
Will Chile nationalize any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry?
This market resolves to "YES" if Chile nationalizes any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry within 1 year. The market will resolves to "NO" if Chile does not. For reference, currently, Chile is writing a new Constitution and the constituent assembly is debating a provision that could lead to privatization. Mar 9, 2:42pm: Update: That would involve compensation at market price.
2022-03-09T11:41:44
2023-03-09T22:59:00
2023-04-07T21:49:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-krIX5HtuHHKmd5FyMcBD
Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-06T18:59:33
2024-02-29T20:59:00
2024-04-05T03:40:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JRzyleybZUTR8GHXs7ug
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?
Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.
2022-03-06T12:14:13
2024-11-05T23:59:00
2024-11-06T09:22:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MPRaTEs2NbGG0nPe9ASN
Will Joe Biden resign in his first term?
2022-03-05T14:09:50
2025-01-20T09:00:00
2025-01-20T11:40:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QKFpHGWpxEpnIo87Nr94
Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-05T13:10:11
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:34:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5Dv6vR1WBXM8ZmtQw2Go
Will Finland join NATO before 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-05T13:09:08
2023-04-04T19:17:25
2023-04-04T19:17:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gDTpbYwxOu16Us9kaYq3
Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-05T13:07:25
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:56:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8TxGLIig9qYBpHOQyEFb
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10004/german-nuclear-power/ Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm
2022-03-02T10:48:49
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-06-04T13:17:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3EeZ3lbo3sS7oKldMtyu
By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/
2022-03-02T10:44:44
2023-03-22T03:57:23
2023-03-22T03:57:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-c0V0L912Oa320qh18Zku
Putin still president on June 1, 2024. Note that the 2024 Russia Presidential election is scheduled for March 17 and the inauguration for May 7.
Close date updated to 2024-06-01 11:59 pm
2022-02-25T02:03:49
2024-06-01T21:59:00
2024-06-07T00:06:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U5rW8rhQ0Ubz4WgkHRhk
Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024?
This market resolves to 'YES' if Andrew Yang runs for President in the 2024 general US Presidential election or in the primaries of any party. EDIT: A write-in candidacy would count. The question will resolve when polls close on November 5, 2024.
2022-02-22T14:04:27
2024-11-05T16:00:00
2024-11-05T16:39:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rZSX556sOqfreUkwWTtA
Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede after at least two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election, as projected by the major media outlets. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. Fine print: For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have "projected" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of "projected" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.
2022-02-18T13:07:30
2024-11-04T21:00:00
2024-11-29T22:12:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5qI3Q6NpxPgPyw4Gk1wE
Will Elon Musk run for president in 2024?
This market resolves in "YES" if Elon Musk announces a run for President before the 2024 election.
2022-02-17T21:04:48
2024-11-04T12:40:19
2024-11-04T12:40:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-63DCWcqi5Mg46GvA6m9o
"The Verge": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023?
This market resolves to "YES" if the mainnet L1 Ethereum protocol uses Verkle trees before the end of 2023. Sep 25, 10:09am: Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023? → "The Verge": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023?
2022-02-13T23:05:31
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:24:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IjqF5KXVxSWUtsmKcnBF
Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is a member of the Democratic party.
2022-02-13T22:53:49
2024-11-06T15:30:33
2024-11-06T15:30:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
Resolved to YES if on 2025-01-01: - 10 cities with more than 300,000 inhabitants - Have a taxi service of fully self-driving cars (no test, backup or remote human driver - passengers are the only humans in the car and they control where the car is going by specifying a destination). - The service is generally available (anyone can register for the service and order rides with no restrictions other than the obvious ones that would be placed on similar human-operated services like Uber and Lyft - for example: need a smartphone, credit card), subject to availability (supply constraints are OK). - It is reasonable to assume that the service is not considered a restricted experiment by the operating company or local authorities (based on publicly available media and reports). Mar 4, 8:27pm: John Carmack is betting quite a lot of real money on a very similar proposition, but 5 years later: https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1499803694522589187 | https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/
2022-02-13T00:04:07
2024-12-31T15:00:00
2024-12-31T15:24:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors? #AI #DeepMind
2022-02-06T09:47:25
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T16:56:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3QicUEAK34FYKgqVqruF
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?
-If the 2024 games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -Silver and bronze medals do not count, it must be gold. -The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the gold medal specifically in the women's division. -This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc. Even if an athlete had not transitioned at all, they can still count for this question. -In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence they were, or personal accounts. Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an "athlete" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion. Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented). The two questions in this serious so far are:| https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an Mar 16, 1:35pm: Charlie asks how to evaluate given different degrees of being "out". If they allow non-trans men to compete with women, I'll count that (just to keep resolvability high). If a trans-woman athlete wins but we can't tell they were born male, then I won't include them. Dec 13, 11:38pm: Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in the 2024 games? → Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?
2022-01-30T11:51:22
2024-09-02T20:59:59
2024-09-03T15:38:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-x8Mtn7fe3wsQ68C6xTAO
Will the cyber truck go into full production in 2023?
Same rules. Edge cases resolve no. Feb 1, 4:56pm: Full production in 2022 resolves yes. As long as they are still in full production in 2023.
2022-01-30T04:38:35
2023-12-17T19:59:59
2023-12-17T20:22:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IGhjmoMpKNiXikilX67x
Will Helion's Polaris fusion reactor produce net electricity by Jan 1st, 2025?
This market resolves YES if by two months after the start of 2025, Helion has announced that they produced "a small amount of net electricity" from their Polaris reactor as they have predicted. (see https://blog.samaltman.com/helion) Jan 25, 7:05pm: I'll just see if they announce it themselves. Jan 25, 7:06pm: Personally, I would consider it to have to be system level, that in total it produces slightly more electricity than it consumed.
2022-01-24T16:05:52
2024-12-31T20:59:59
2025-03-01T20:29:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7zZQAXsGlypLixghpSIb
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count. -The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division. -This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question. -In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an "athlete" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion. Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented). The two questions in this series so far: https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an
2022-01-23T16:18:23
2024-09-01T20:59:59
2024-10-02T09:50:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.
2022-01-17T03:54:33
2024-07-21T14:33:38
2024-07-21T14:33:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?
Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket. Following Biden stepping down as Democratic nominee, Harris is the current nominee for the Democratic party, with Walz as Vice President. One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Harris is to win the presidency, if she is chosen as the Democratic nominee. This resolves N/A if Kamala Harris is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether she becomes the president if she is the nominee.
2022-01-15T09:43:05
2024-11-03T15:59:59
2024-11-06T09:37:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-b72B3SYfUubnn28lGuup
Will Finland be an official member of NATO by 2025?
**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Finland becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Finland joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Finland
2022-01-14T13:46:09
2023-05-13T11:38:39
2023-05-13T11:38:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dm8kDfQ1HDOhW8VVCjN7
Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025?
**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Sweden becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Sweden joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Sweden
2022-01-14T13:46:07
2024-03-08T10:26:48
2024-03-08T10:26:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rZw3lUIEwGJPw6BLUIhX
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
"The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html "Russia's main demand is a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into former Soviet republics — especially Ukraine. Russia wants NATO to rescind a 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join the defense alliance. Many observers see it as a distant prospect that Ukraine could join NATO because it doesn't meet membership requirements. But Moscow doesn't see it that way. "We don't trust the other side," Russia's chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said after bilateral talks with the U.S. finished Monday. "We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances. Not safeguards. Guarantees. With all the words — 'shall, must' — everything that should be put in."... The U.S. argues that countries have a right to choose their own alliances and NATO has a long-standing "open door policy" for potential membership. "NATO has never expanded through force or coercion or subversion. It is countries' sovereign choice to choose to come to NATO and say they want to join," Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Wednesday after a meeting between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels. Russia's actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing to Ukrainians, according to opinion polls. It is unlikely, however, that Ukraine will meet the requirements anytime soon." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Ukraine becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Ukraine joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Ukraine
2022-01-14T13:39:46
2024-12-31T20:59:59
2025-01-04T03:08:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PFvpxts5LpHOTSK2yY45
Will Bernie Sanders seek the Democratic Party's nomination for president in 2024?
Whether or not he gets it. If he runs, but exclusively as an independent, that's a no. #USPolitics #Politics #Elections #BernieSanders
2022-01-14T09:27:58
2024-03-01T21:59:59
2024-03-01T22:29:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ua0kzjbcBjwSySES4hYt
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #DonaldTrump
2022-01-14T09:22:48
2024-11-06T10:16:07
2024-11-06T11:20:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
2022-01-14T09:21:58
2024-07-21T14:50:33
2024-07-21T14:50:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GNAY9O0C2Au1RpQMTwKc
Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2023?
If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2023, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy
2022-01-13T07:48:07
2024-01-01T12:05:02
2024-01-01T12:05:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QJslgIQGPJx3xpZjJRc2
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ Will resolve positively if at any time between now and December 31, 2024 the value of 1 bitcoin is greater than or equal to $100k USD.
2022-01-12T20:23:42
2024-12-06T13:15:20
2024-12-06T13:15:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dbqDp4mV1NkG8IfRZNbV
Hillary Clinton signals in any way she might run for president in 2024
If she says she's "considering it" or "forming an exploratory committee", that counts. If "aids close to her" say "it's a possibility", that counts. If she says she "hasn't ruled it out", that counts. If she announces her candidacy obviously that counts. If she's asked about it and she's evasive and doesn't really say anything, that doesn't count. #USA #Politics
2021-12-31T18:25:14
2024-11-23T07:11:44
2024-11-23T07:11:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
2021-12-30T12:34:35
2024-07-16T14:02:31
2024-07-16T14:02:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Y3ajaQlTZixE66z18IWv
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic nominee?
Never bet against talent! #Politics #2024
2021-12-30T12:12:33
2024-08-05T22:36:43
2024-08-05T22:36:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S0pYkvY8VsVhSZraR9xa
Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
resolving Jan 20, 2025
2021-12-28T07:00:08
2025-01-20T17:10:00
2025-01-21T00:37:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no. Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, or the party of the non-conceding candidate largely supporting the notion that the election result has no legitimacy. (In 2020, Trump and his diehards rejected the outcome of the election, but the Republican Party accepted it, so applying my criteria to 2020 would've yielded a YES.
2021-12-28T06:55:03
2024-11-06T14:17:53
2024-11-06T14:17:53
yes
MANIFOLD