id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-DreezzZ09K5d4ee1E64l | Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024? | 2022-06-04T04:29:54 | 2023-12-30T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:30:49 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-GEP53ydAJ46Yf84KohdM | Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? | Resolves YES if Trump is charged with a felony by the grand jury.
Aug 3, 5:41pm: Will Trump be charged by the grand jury in Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? → Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?
Close date updated to 2025... | 2022-05-29T17:57:56 | 2023-08-14T20:04:18 | 2023-08-14T20:04:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m95EKsXs4a0DrK5I6hPw | If Boris is not the leader of the Tories, will they win a majority in the next general election? | This market resolves to YES if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they win a majority in parliament.
This market resolves to NO if Boris is not leader of the Tories for the next general election and they don't win a majority in parliament.
This market resolves to NA if Boris is leader... | 2022-05-29T11:00:12 | 2024-09-04T16:25:12 | 2024-09-04T16:25:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr | Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023? | Based on this tweet https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1528991584309624832 Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates "object permanency" in the sense that it can resolve full object oclusions correctly(for example a mountain ... | 2022-05-25T20:50:21 | 2023-06-01T14:59:00 | 2023-07-16T20:55:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zin8XrF40IxX0LG8qbvg | Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024? | Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024? | 2022-05-25T09:59:59 | 2024-07-22T07:35:21 | 2024-07-22T07:35:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RY7cIUtXhce4QAwPjqlk | If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate? | Question will be void if Trump is not running as of the first televised presidential debate. If Trump runs but refuses to debate then market will still be live (but he would then not count towards the 7 candidates).
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | 2022-05-25T07:04:17 | 2023-08-24T04:59:48 | 2023-08-24T04:59:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0FAJAfWknPeJY2B27NOS | Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote? | 2022-05-24T09:27:13 | 2024-11-29T18:10:38 | 2024-11-29T18:10:38 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-Yq84IROWgzYkY3a9s3zk | Will Russia invade Finland or Sweden before they join NATO? | Resolves Yes if Russia invades Finland or Sweden with ground troops.
Resolves No if Finland and Sweden are both members of NATO.
Small print: I will not trade in this market. If neither condition occurs at market close I may resolve N/A or extend the close date. | 2022-05-24T05:47:27 | 2024-03-07T11:56:53 | 2024-03-07T11:56:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GAi3QVP8sTF1e4pyjCDv | Will aisafetyideas.com reach 200,000 total unique visitors in a year? | aisafetyideas.com is a page that collects and showcases shovel-ready AI safety and governance project ideas. As development goes along, it will facilitate crowdsourcing ideas, mentorships, expert validation, funding and more.
The reason for 200,000 total unique visitors as the first question is because it is an unders... | 2022-05-21T14:35:36 | 2023-05-20T21:00:00 | 2023-05-21T03:39:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gCFMraDRTKwOr2l7zzJF | Will the European Union have an official army by 2024? | Will the European parliament votes into being a military organization that is at least on the same spectrum as NATO, i.e. international military cooperation and with military obligations.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | 2022-05-21T12:01:04 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:32:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dDfeqmR0QHI4CxnlwXx2 | Will a blockchain-based social network have a million users by June 2023? | Resolves yes if a social network which operates primarily on a blockchain has had at least a million users by the end of May 2023. | 2022-05-18T17:51:07 | 2023-05-31T15:59:00 | 2023-06-08T08:23:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mzdjvf78ulZXyWhW1kRE | Will Starship launch at least 5 orbital payloads in 2023? | Resolves YES when Starship makes its 5th successful launch bringing any amount of payload to orbit in 2023. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 if it fails to make 5 such launches. | 2022-05-16T20:54:54 | 2024-01-01T09:18:26 | 2024-01-01T09:18:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gvkmgQxDPetjWKovT7hU | Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2024? | 2022-05-15T18:41:17 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-03T09:35:31 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-r7bVXiT8lsJV8nbEC7X0 | Will there be a new trillion-dollar company before 2025? | Currently Wikipedia lists 7: PetroChina, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Will there be a new one by the end of 2024? | 2022-05-15T16:37:48 | 2023-06-10T18:37:48 | 2023-06-10T18:37:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lwKs2O7IGZ2RV32LecIA | Will SpaceX IPO before 2024? | Resolves "Yes" if SpaceX IPOs on or before December 31st 2023.
Jun 3, 8:54am: Note: If Starlink as a separate entity IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO". | 2022-05-15T06:18:52 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:24:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jPzpDf325yc894VLZX6d | Will Apple announce an iPhone with a USB-C port by the end of 2023? | 2022-05-14T12:13:28 | 2023-10-05T07:50:20 | 2023-10-05T07:50:20 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-GLausyWsRnJarLwQXSjB | Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if one can purchase a cultured meat product (a.k.a. "cultivated meat", "lab grown meat", etc.) in a major grocery chain store in the US. Non-cell based mock meats, like the Impossible Burger, do not count.
Sep 23, 6:59pm: Clarifying resolution criteria: I'd resolve YES if any of the following occur:
A ma... | 2022-05-11T19:53:17 | 2023-12-30T23:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:22:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lZqdu3dgDaiwblzMvsfc | Will people care about prediction markets by 2025? | More specifically:
A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery)
B) least 20% of randos know what they are | 2022-05-10T16:42:33 | 2025-01-03T13:56:37 | 2025-01-03T13:56:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-126lM0zmrovjdBX9sPcg | Will USDC depeg before May 9 2023? | This market resolves to "YES" if the price of USDC, as given by https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/, drops below $0.90 at any time before May 9 2023. | 2022-05-09T21:47:08 | 2023-03-11T02:42:42 | 2023-03-11T02:42:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IJilwdlpGe27QLGsNPie | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024? |
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm | 2022-05-09T16:58:13 | 2023-04-25T04:59:10 | 2023-04-25T04:59:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv | Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024? | Impressive, worrying analysis by @MatthewBarnett in a Facebook post.
FAQ
1. What if China invades some of Taiwan's outer islands?
That doesn't count. It needs to be an invasion of mainland Taiwan. | 2022-05-09T08:45:38 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:38:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9ASTEblGCTmlcoz7WFom | Will Cannabis be decriminalised in the UK before 2025 | 2022-05-08T08:55:10 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:59:21 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-Xwqq7ruHRCqCRYMY3Taa | Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2023-05-13? | Resolves Yes if SCOTUS judges have term limits, whether imposed by Congress or self-imposed. This includes any sort of time limit, age limit, case limit, session limit, etc. It includes limits that only apply to future judges.
Resolves No otherwise.
Small print: I will not trade in this market. I will handle edge cas... | 2022-05-06T05:45:59 | 2023-05-13T18:14:30 | 2023-05-13T18:14:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ktrJqjdGnIuwYY3OL6JQ | Will any of the following be unbanned from Twitter within the next two years: Milo, Ricky Vaughn, TEN_GOP | This market resolves to yes if ANY of the following are unbanned from Twitter within the next two years. It resolves to no if none of them are unbanned.
See also David Glidden's markets | 2022-05-05T17:27:11 | 2023-12-06T11:55:26 | 2023-12-06T11:55:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CgYyeLT415splYjNVWrR | Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024? | S&P 500 hit its all-time intraday high on Jan 4th 2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500
At the time of writing it has been moving between the ranges of 4050-4300
Will it surpass that in the next year and a half before 2024? Are we due for a bullish or bearish season after a couple yea... | 2022-05-04T05:19:28 | 2023-12-29T13:22:30 | 2023-12-29T13:22:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6vcxQStiyBaH4IO2FwN6 | Will the Activision-Microsoft deal fall through because of regulator actions? | Will resolve yes if government regulators file a regulatory law suit or other action and the deal falls through Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm | 2022-05-02T08:26:19 | 2023-10-14T14:31:16 | 2023-10-14T14:31:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mYapS6JRf76r4epqAvto | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10790/dnipro-under-russian-on-june-1-2023/ | 2022-05-01T03:59:36 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-04T13:18:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0y6IcfNvoTNyfHnAoPVy | Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2023? | Sony and Microsoft have released their next-gen consoles already, the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X/S, as of 2020. However, Nintendo so far has been continuing to pour their efforts into the Nintendo Switch, which was released in 2017. Rumours abound of a "Switch Pro" or even a brand new console, but so far have ... | 2022-04-30T20:05:55 | 2023-12-31T17:19:06 | 2023-12-31T17:19:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a0FIY3VNQ3K7hSnYuCxi | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/ | 2022-04-23T03:52:19 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:49:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MoBaLWG966ltagA4PCwY | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastapol on January 1, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/ | 2022-04-23T03:50:33 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:49:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LG57fF7YqAPNEe08bTYh | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/ | 2022-04-23T03:48:33 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:50:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rNRbnWEiXvkwstFI772V | Will blockchain tech find a killer app by the end of 2023? | Examples of things that would make this resolve to YES:
Crypto as an actual currency goes mainstream, like normal people buying actual things with it, not just speculating
DAOs emerge as a common/better way to run organizations
Blockchain becomes a common/better way to track property ownership
Manifold moves to c... | 2022-04-22T14:25:06 | 2023-12-31T23:30:27 | 2023-12-31T23:30:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NeTSYqiSamaZ1GlAISvT | Will Jen Psaki be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president? | On the April 22nd, 2022 episode of The Prediction Trade, tastytrade founder and co-CEO Tom Sosnoff stated that he would like to put his money on Biden's White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki at 1% to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024: https://youtu.be/SjTAWjlrNHQ?t=2264
This market will resolve YES if Je... | 2022-04-22T05:48:25 | 2024-08-06T03:33:24 | 2024-08-06T03:33:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eoWDVo2SG1XbwxBx2shA | Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023? | "Trillion+ dollar impact" is a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:
Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans
Superhuman art; people tend to prefer to read / view... | 2022-04-20T16:12:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T13:59:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s4dyAtxQzWCYXoRXC3kN | Will Keir Starmer be leader of the UK Labour Party going into the next election? | This resolves YES if Keir Starmer is leader of the UK Labour party going into the next election, currectly scheduled for 2nd May 2024.
Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am | 2022-04-20T09:46:08 | 2024-07-04T11:44:43 | 2024-07-04T11:44:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM | Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-04-18T15:20:37 | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-01T09:08:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6OBoL5PaXGDWUGXB4JE6 | Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025? | Resolves if, before 2025, it becomes general consensus that a third world war has begun. "World War 3" or "The Third World War" has to be the common popular term people are using to refer to it, especially e.g. world leaders, wikipedia page, etc. And it can't just be like, a one-off article in VOX or something, it has ... | 2022-04-16T22:05:03 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-11T10:02:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3e6UUeOvJLrXJpFy3TN7 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before Nov 5, 2024? | Vox: What we know about the Hunter Biden Investigation https://www.vox.com/23012186/hunter-biden-investigation-tax-fara
"The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and the Associated Press have all published stories in recent weeks with a similar theme: the investigation, run by the US attorney’s... | 2022-04-15T15:01:31 | 2023-09-15T11:23:26 | 2023-09-15T11:23:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xdTheCSphJ3SWD88HU67 | At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/ | 2022-04-14T18:21:16 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:51:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QcDI0yu0TeWZxJlIVuSs | Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months? |
Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm | 2022-04-07T20:34:03 | 2023-04-07T20:59:00 | 2023-10-15T22:05:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mg9ZfHDza1h1r5Fm4CRS | Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10556/50k-russian-military-deaths-by-2024/ | 2022-04-07T18:41:39 | 2023-08-10T04:16:12 | 2023-08-10T04:16:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JMNAK3bqzXBgHZcJEH11 | Will a second U.S. Supreme Court Justice publicly announce they are retiring any time during President Biden's first term in office? | This market will resolve yes if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice makes their own public announcement they are retiring while President Biden is still in office during his first term (up until January 20, 2025.) If a Justice dies or leaves the court in some other manner than retirement, this market will resolve no. If no Ju... | 2022-03-22T20:18:05 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-28T09:46:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aNbn9YBmbozzNDeu50RH | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist | Dependent of whether or not that the winner self-describes as a "socialist" regardless of what polices advocated or record. "Democratic Socialist" counts as well.
Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm
Mar 23, 11:17am: for transparency: I set the close date till after the election is likely to be certified. I acci... | 2022-03-22T13:00:58 | 2024-11-08T10:31:08 | 2024-11-08T10:31:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BY2t3Ha9fxwPKwMOtfYL | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/
Expected to resolve around Feb 1, 2024.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-17T20:20:12 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-10T14:48:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bddHrqzJnTxFnTqSfF5n | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2024
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-17T20:00:58 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:52:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-onhTHDgQVDpX6V5inItM | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-17T19:50:53 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:54:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy | Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024 | Like my other demographic presidential markets this will resolve based on whatever gender the victor self-identifies as, so a transwomen count as well. | 2022-03-17T14:07:49 | 2024-11-14T22:32:24 | 2024-11-14T22:32:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ioGfapCQqG60GUcSWXr5 | Will the United States participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | This market resolves to YES if the United States is listed as an official participant in the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest. Guest or "one-off" appearances as a competitor are included (e.g. Australia in 2015).
Performances as an interval act resolve to NO. For example, if the winner of American Song Contest performs o... | 2022-03-16T17:54:13 | 2023-05-15T11:22:28 | 2023-05-15T11:22:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-roaiUgvr0F1XZC2oUpca | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White? | The United States elected it's first non white president in 2008 with Barack Obama. Will the United States do it again in 2024
Mar 17, 12:28am: Just so we are clear this also includes White Hispanic/Latinos
Mar 17, 3:47pm: Whatever race the victor self-identifies as is what is used for the purpose of this market. | 2022-03-16T07:35:18 | 2024-11-08T10:28:39 | 2024-11-08T10:28:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kFXBY3TQn6svVdQyqEWF | Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023? | https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/
It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that ... | 2022-03-15T12:44:22 | 2023-12-31T18:31:11 | 2023-12-31T18:31:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QC2WmlZF8EnhKtrGLs9B | Elon Musk will have fathered at least 10 children by 2030 | Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, SpaceX, etc. will have sired / fathered at least 10 biological children by the year 2030. As of 2022-03-10, he has 7. To qualify for the count, the children must be at least in the 2nd trimester.
Mar 10, 1:23pm: Musk's first-born child Nevada was not counted initially at the time of mar... | 2022-03-10T13:23:27 | 2023-10-12T20:37:46 | 2023-10-12T20:37:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RWkGpp89ic4v2ER5NiJp | Will Chile nationalize any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry? | This market resolves to "YES" if Chile nationalizes any company in the gold, copper, or lithium industry within 1 year. The market will resolves to "NO" if Chile does not. For reference, currently, Chile is writing a new Constitution and the constituent assembly is debating a provision that could lead to privatization.... | 2022-03-09T11:41:44 | 2023-03-09T22:59:00 | 2023-04-07T21:49:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-krIX5HtuHHKmd5FyMcBD | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/ Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-06T18:59:33 | 2024-02-29T20:59:00 | 2024-04-05T03:40:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JRzyleybZUTR8GHXs7ug | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024? | Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election. | 2022-03-06T12:14:13 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T09:22:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MPRaTEs2NbGG0nPe9ASN | Will Joe Biden resign in his first term? | 2022-03-05T14:09:50 | 2025-01-20T09:00:00 | 2025-01-20T11:40:34 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-QKFpHGWpxEpnIo87Nr94 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-05T13:10:11 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:34:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5Dv6vR1WBXM8ZmtQw2Go | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-05T13:09:08 | 2023-04-04T19:17:25 | 2023-04-04T19:17:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gDTpbYwxOu16Us9kaYq3 | Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-by-2024/
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-05T13:07:25 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:56:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8TxGLIig9qYBpHOQyEFb | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10004/german-nuclear-power/
Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm | 2022-03-02T10:48:49 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-04T13:17:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3EeZ3lbo3sS7oKldMtyu | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/ | 2022-03-02T10:44:44 | 2023-03-22T03:57:23 | 2023-03-22T03:57:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c0V0L912Oa320qh18Zku | Putin still president on June 1, 2024. Note that the 2024 Russia Presidential election is scheduled for March 17 and the inauguration for May 7. |
Close date updated to 2024-06-01 11:59 pm | 2022-02-25T02:03:49 | 2024-06-01T21:59:00 | 2024-06-07T00:06:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U5rW8rhQ0Ubz4WgkHRhk | Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024? | This market resolves to 'YES' if Andrew Yang runs for President in the 2024 general US Presidential election or in the primaries of any party.
EDIT: A write-in candidacy would count. The question will resolve when polls close on November 5, 2024. | 2022-02-22T14:04:27 | 2024-11-05T16:00:00 | 2024-11-05T16:39:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rZSX556sOqfreUkwWTtA | Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat? | For the purpose of this question, the losing presidential candidate in 2024 (the "losing candidate") is the major party candidate projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print).
This question resolves to YES if the losing candidate refuses to concede... | 2022-02-18T13:07:30 | 2024-11-04T21:00:00 | 2024-11-29T22:12:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5qI3Q6NpxPgPyw4Gk1wE | Will Elon Musk run for president in 2024? | This market resolves in "YES" if Elon Musk announces a run for President before the 2024 election. | 2022-02-17T21:04:48 | 2024-11-04T12:40:19 | 2024-11-04T12:40:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-63DCWcqi5Mg46GvA6m9o | "The Verge": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023? | This market resolves to "YES" if the mainnet L1 Ethereum protocol uses Verkle trees before the end of 2023.
Sep 25, 10:09am: Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023? → "The Verge": Will Ethereum use Verkle trees by the end of 2023? | 2022-02-13T23:05:31 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:24:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IjqF5KXVxSWUtsmKcnBF | Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024? | This market resolves to "Yes" if the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is a member of the Democratic party. | 2022-02-13T22:53:49 | 2024-11-06T15:30:33 | 2024-11-06T15:30:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6 | Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025? | Resolved to YES if on 2025-01-01:
- 10 cities with more than 300,000 inhabitants
- Have a taxi service of fully self-driving cars (no test, backup or remote human driver - passengers are the only humans in the car and they control where the car is going by specifying a destination).
- The service is generally available... | 2022-02-13T00:04:07 | 2024-12-31T15:00:00 | 2024-12-31T15:24:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF | Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023? | DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors?
... | 2022-02-06T09:47:25 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:56:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3QicUEAK34FYKgqVqruF | Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024? | -If the 2024 games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -Silver and bronze medals do not count, it must be gold.
-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the gold medal specifically in the women's division.
-This question will ignore wheth... | 2022-01-30T11:51:22 | 2024-09-02T20:59:59 | 2024-09-03T15:38:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x8Mtn7fe3wsQ68C6xTAO | Will the cyber truck go into full production in 2023? | Same rules. Edge cases resolve no.
Feb 1, 4:56pm:
Full production in 2022 resolves yes.
As long as they are still in full production in 2023. | 2022-01-30T04:38:35 | 2023-12-17T19:59:59 | 2023-12-17T20:22:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IGhjmoMpKNiXikilX67x | Will Helion's Polaris fusion reactor produce net electricity by Jan 1st, 2025? | This market resolves YES if by two months after the start of 2025, Helion has announced that they produced "a small amount of net electricity" from their Polaris reactor as they have predicted.
(see https://blog.samaltman.com/helion)
Jan 25, 7:05pm: I'll just see if they announce it themselves.
Jan 25, 7:06pm: Person... | 2022-01-24T16:05:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:59 | 2025-03-01T20:29:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7zZQAXsGlypLixghpSIb | Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024? | -If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.
-"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.
-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.
-This question will ig... | 2022-01-23T16:18:23 | 2024-09-01T20:59:59 | 2024-10-02T09:50:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.
If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after s... | 2022-01-17T03:54:33 | 2024-07-21T14:33:38 | 2024-07-21T14:33:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI | If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? | Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket. Following Biden stepping down as Democratic nominee, Harris is the current nominee for the Democratic party, with Walz as Vice President.
One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely... | 2022-01-15T09:43:05 | 2024-11-03T15:59:59 | 2024-11-06T09:37:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b72B3SYfUubnn28lGuup | Will Finland be an official member of NATO by 2025? | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | 2022-01-14T13:46:09 | 2023-05-13T11:38:39 | 2023-05-13T11:38:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dm8kDfQ1HDOhW8VVCjN7 | Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025? | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | 2022-01-14T13:46:07 | 2024-03-08T10:26:48 | 2024-03-08T10:26:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rZw3lUIEwGJPw6BLUIhX | Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025? | "The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republ... | 2022-01-14T13:39:46 | 2024-12-31T20:59:59 | 2025-01-04T03:08:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PFvpxts5LpHOTSK2yY45 | Will Bernie Sanders seek the Democratic Party's nomination for president in 2024? | Whether or not he gets it. If he runs, but exclusively as an independent, that's a no.
#USPolitics #Politics #Elections #BernieSanders | 2022-01-14T09:27:58 | 2024-03-01T21:59:59 | 2024-03-01T22:29:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ua0kzjbcBjwSySES4hYt | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #DonaldTrump | 2022-01-14T09:22:48 | 2024-11-06T10:16:07 | 2024-11-06T11:20:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden | 2022-01-14T09:21:58 | 2024-07-21T14:50:33 | 2024-07-21T14:50:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GNAY9O0C2Au1RpQMTwKc | Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2023? | If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2023, this will resolve to true.
Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy | 2022-01-13T07:48:07 | 2024-01-01T12:05:02 | 2024-01-01T12:05:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QJslgIQGPJx3xpZjJRc2 | Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024? | Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
Will resolve positively if at any time between now and December 31, 2024 the value of 1 bitcoin is greater than or equal to $100k USD. | 2022-01-12T20:23:42 | 2024-12-06T13:15:20 | 2024-12-06T13:15:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dbqDp4mV1NkG8IfRZNbV | Hillary Clinton signals in any way she might run for president in 2024 | If she says she's "considering it" or "forming an exploratory committee", that counts.
If "aids close to her" say "it's a possibility", that counts.
If she says she "hasn't ruled it out", that counts.
If she announces her candidacy obviously that counts.
If she's asked about it and she's evasive and doesn't really say... | 2021-12-31T18:25:14 | 2024-11-23T07:11:44 | 2024-11-23T07:11:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq | Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? | 2021-12-30T12:34:35 | 2024-07-16T14:02:31 | 2024-07-16T14:02:31 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-Y3ajaQlTZixE66z18IWv | Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic nominee? | Never bet against talent!
#Politics #2024 | 2021-12-30T12:12:33 | 2024-08-05T22:36:43 | 2024-08-05T22:36:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S0pYkvY8VsVhSZraR9xa | Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | resolving Jan 20, 2025 | 2021-12-28T07:00:08 | 2025-01-20T17:10:00 | 2025-01-21T00:37:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe | Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024? | If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no.
Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, or the party of the non-conceding candidate largely supporting the notion that the election result has no legitimacy. (In 2020, Trump and his diehards rejected ... | 2021-12-28T06:55:03 | 2024-11-06T14:17:53 | 2024-11-06T14:17:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.