id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-NMM9vyBwQrnFqbA8VHu4 | If there has been no nuclear strike will NATO troops intervene on the ground before April 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-05T05:15:22 | 2023-04-30T16:01:00 | 2023-04-30T16:07:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dRdXZtj8UXiXxkoF2rXE | SBF convicted of a felony before 2026 | Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried and found guilty in absentia.
Clarification: AFAICT, 'felony' is a term only used in the United States. If SBF is convicted of a crime outsid... | 2022-10-05T05:06:13 | 2023-11-02T19:45:57 | 2023-11-02T19:45:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RwLTtw9XEOvgKAW6ys0X | Will Phil Fish announce a sequel to Fez in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-04T18:11:04 | 2023-12-31T10:37:29 | 2023-12-31T10:37:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QxA2ldji6WDMWrcI8yyc | Will the company Beyond Meat (BYND) be bought out by another company before the end of 2024? | Beyond Meat is a distressed fake meat company which may have the potential to be purchased by a larger brand. If this occurs, the market will resolve to YES. If it does not occur, and we have reached the end of 2024, then the market will resolve to NO.
We will only consider a buyout to be valid if the stock is complet... | 2022-10-04T13:35:26 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-03T08:01:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z7gmcmOujRkwtP85uoUg | Will Manchester City Win The 22/23 Premier League | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-04T11:34:26 | 2023-05-24T07:11:53 | 2023-05-24T07:11:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mwwO1mqSiE2VWdXLZ7AN | Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if any part of Russian breaks off from the motherland and forms a new state, similar to what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by the end of 2024. | 2022-10-04T06:55:59 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:08:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Vz82WrIiE71Pf0C7GfqD | Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? | At the end of the 2022/23 we will see who the top scorer was for the Premier League. | 2022-10-03T08:28:29 | 2023-05-28T13:53:34 | 2023-05-28T13:53:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5R9mFEyLuEZ8EA1M7gR0 | Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? | At the end of the 2022/23 we will see who the top scorer was for the Premier League.
Oct 3, 12:28pm: Wil Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? → Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? | 2022-10-03T08:26:56 | 2023-05-28T13:52:40 | 2023-05-28T13:52:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZPAnV0cFwgevbNt7eeIo | Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030? | The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind.
AlphaFold (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. It was iterated upon and a second version (AlphaFold 2, AF2) was released ... | 2022-10-03T03:01:53 | 2024-10-09T06:10:43 | 2024-10-09T06:10:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3BqmiWgb6njYBMNaEyhP | Will there be any mobilization in Poland before 2025? | Resolves YES if there's any credible reports of people being mobilized into the polish armed forces before 2025. This excludes mandatory training, as long as it does not lead to being an active part of the military. | 2022-10-03T01:23:41 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T17:41:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-399JIdJfYks6WLhOK52e | Will Joe Biden still be alive on the beginning of Jan 19, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-02T09:03:41 | 2025-01-18T21:00:00 | 2025-01-19T05:33:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i46XYFf3UOFfgfRoZPrN | Will Joe Biden be the US head of state on the beginning of Jan 19, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-02T09:02:27 | 2025-01-18T21:00:00 | 2025-01-19T05:32:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VexfDCZuOimCSsra6AgJ | Will a flash crash of US or European stock markets occur before the end of 2023? | Will a new entry on Wikipedia's page [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash] appear recording a confirmed flash crash between October 2nd, 2022 and December 31st, 2023? | 2022-10-02T05:04:04 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:22:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AhqilzfWix8nai81v0EL | Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2023? | This market will resolve to "YES" if, from September 1, 2022, through December 31 2023, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government.
If by the end of 2023 Mateusz Morawiecki for any reason stops being Prime Minister of Poland, this market will resolve to "NO". | 2022-10-02T03:20:38 | 2023-12-11T10:47:39 | 2023-12-11T10:47:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vTq9HHRIc6PlE99lfwOU | Will Credit Suisse declare bankruptcy before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-01T17:47:20 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:05:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Qq1JmhJ8wj7EPJWwuXS | Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by June 2024? | This question resolves YES if the Busy Beaver Challenge has been completed by the close date, as determined by some page on the bbchallenge.org website indicating that all 5-state Turing Machines have been decided. An exception is that if all machines are decided, but the Busy Beaver is still not known (due to multiple... | 2022-10-01T10:54:59 | 2024-06-01T23:59:00 | 2024-06-02T21:35:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L0OMUzA1gr9pea7TaDLh | Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? | Ill resolve along same criteria as the original market, but with a different date
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-fo) | 2022-09-30T22:47:47 | 2023-07-29T17:02:51 | 2023-07-29T17:02:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h7donB7Jbls29Xt4umvZ | Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024? | Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different?
Th... | 2022-09-30T22:31:45 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T13:58:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8zCxM0OFdF5UxHDCXdNd | Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025 | Credit Suisse Group AG of Zurich, Switzerland (SIX: CSGN, NYSE: CS) either declares bankruptcy or is found to be insolvent by auditors or regulators before 2025.
The data for resolving this question will come from financial regulatory filings or a reputable financial newspaper such as the Wall Street Journal or the F... | 2022-09-30T21:55:30 | 2024-12-31T08:01:00 | 2025-01-01T05:23:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5J7GWI9LpkM76sXiO10z | Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023? | If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time.
Otherwise, resolves to the same as https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5, whenever that does resolve.
"Peace deal" is a bit vague, but I'll... | 2022-09-29T18:33:47 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-15T15:43:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aI9MfL81D3YGn9iOvZfF | Will chemical weapons be used in Ukraine by the end of 2023? | [left open while waiting for the resolution criteria below - please read the entire description before betting]
Does not need to lead to deaths to resolve YES, but only use as a military technique counts, not as an assassination technique.
Per https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk#Xf... | 2022-09-29T18:20:45 | 2024-02-27T16:01:05 | 2024-02-27T16:01:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XR5JhLjnAM85Z8mPwnBV | Will there be 5 or more faithless electors in the 2024 US presidential election? | This includes both validated and invalidated votes. | 2022-09-29T07:56:32 | 2024-12-31T00:03:39 | 2024-12-31T00:03:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YWGeplMkudawqroG0gL6 | Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-28T15:49:49 | 2024-01-01T13:45:51 | 2024-01-01T13:45:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uzcmE1jRGm57dS6mKV5v | Will USD/CNY breaks 7.5 before the end of Q1 2023? | This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.5000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8).
China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a “monitoring list” for currency practices along with nine other countries, including Germany, Italy and Japan.
I'll go by whatever is the latest quoted price sho... | 2022-09-27T19:35:52 | 2023-03-31T08:59:00 | 2023-10-13T14:37:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eXBkM0jeWNehZJOmmKQz | Will the bank of England base rate reach 5.5% anytime in 2023 (or higher) | The interest rate set by the bank of England. by the end of the year 2023 or sooner
| 2022-09-26T14:23:47 | 2023-12-28T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:50:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sAoU2gji3YhELBN3LTlI | Will King Charles permanently exile Prince Harry from the UK by 11:59pm 12/31/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-26T07:29:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T08:10:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WuFAjuE026RcivBf27za | Will the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF spot market rise above 200€/MWh between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023? | The question will resolve to "YES" if, at any point between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023, day-ahead or weekend contracts on the Dutch TTF spot market are traded at 200€/MWh or more at the end of the day according to the data published by EEX (https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data). | 2022-09-26T05:41:25 | 2023-03-01T09:00:00 | 2023-03-01T10:03:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SIwKRDNWnaojwyOQjqmz | Will Do Kwon be convicted of a crime by 2025? | [tweet] | 2022-09-25T19:31:47 | 2023-07-31T12:33:08 | 2023-07-31T12:33:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YkhA4ifHNhjemxJmqYJz | Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2023? | Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different?
Th... | 2022-09-24T22:15:54 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:53:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-untYqE8I1Qv95Uiu56P6 | Will the Economist endorse the Conservatives in the next UK General Election? | This questions resolves to YES if the Economist endorses the Conservatives, including if they endorse the Conservatives as part of a potential coalition government or if they give some caveat such as endorsing a Conservative vote despite hoping for a hung parliament. Here are the previous Economist endorsements: https:... | 2022-09-24T15:31:28 | 2024-06-29T18:38:49 | 2024-06-29T18:38:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mOMXxka5BQFXyalnZ2Ah | Will US citizens be getting boosters modified for another mutation of Omicron before July 2023? | Will there be a vaccine/booster specifically designed to target not just Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, but some other mutation (e.g., BA.2.75.2) available to a portion of the general population (e.g., military is not sufficient, Moderately or Severely Immunocompromised is) by the last day of June, 2023? | 2022-09-24T14:55:06 | 2023-07-01T20:59:00 | 2023-07-02T04:55:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S9xaZi56HNsTeCvrWHWE | Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024? | This question resolves to "YES" if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥100 unique runners on speedrun.com or another leaderboard) of any video game released before 2022, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time.
Native PC or emulated co... | 2022-09-24T02:16:46 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T23:25:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VXVYi542EjcshXQjyNxN | Will mortgage rates fall below 5% anytime before the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms falls below 5% anytime before the end of 2024. Otherwise NO.
For reference, the most recent rate when this market opened was 6.29% on 9/22. The rate briefly dipped to 4.99% in August.
Related questions
(https://man... | 2022-09-23T16:27:53 | 2024-12-31T15:00:12 | 2024-12-31T15:00:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jGdOLIVWI5ktZstPn2tQ | Will the Republican nominee be either Trump or DeSantis? | Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/what-percent-of-delegates-will-dona/will-trump-receive-at-least-60-mill) | 2022-09-22T18:45:34 | 2024-07-27T15:17:48 | 2024-07-27T15:17:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3WVUxuLeKoXFcpcStlB4 | Will the Fed hike at every meeting through March 2023? | November 1-2
December 13-14*
Jan/Feb 31-1
March 21-22*
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-the-fed-hike-at-every-meeting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-b74b506753f8) | 2022-09-22T15:18:55 | 2023-03-22T10:59:00 | 2023-03-22T11:06:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BOoIX7lszJoPnLyqfjoH | Will Biden and Trump be the next presidential nominees of their parties? | Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024. If either party initially nominated another person this resolves NO. Only the first nomination matters, replacements don't count. | 2022-09-22T11:22:19 | 2024-08-08T00:12:57 | 2024-08-08T00:12:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9jhVq14Eey1E4w8uSfW3 | Will Bitcoin go above $50k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-30k-for-at-le) | 2022-09-22T09:44:55 | 2023-12-31T10:20:19 | 2023-12-31T10:20:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yx6B2eqvG1OyA9OIexEk | Will Bigmode (videogamedunkey's new company) publish at least one game in 2023? | Gaming YouTuber videogamedunkey has announced his new games publishing company he's starting with his wife, fellow YouTuber Leahbee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEt27Jgp8gs
Will the company, Bigmode, publish at least one game in 2023? This market resolves YES immediately if a Bigmode-published game is released to ... | 2022-09-21T20:49:28 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:57:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UTNIaUBUr60Sh2zE2EVe | Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? | At any meeting.
Jan/Feb 31-1
March 21-22*
May 2-3
June 13-14*
July 25-26
September 19-20*
Oct/Nov 31-1
December 12-13* | 2022-09-21T17:51:24 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:14:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JKC93ishYThhw1V3xIVC | Will the total crypto market cap reach >3 trillion before 2024? | The market resolves to YES if before 2024 the total crypto market is above 3 trillion USD for at least 24 hours, indicated by coinmarketcap, coingecko, or better data source. | 2022-09-21T12:38:05 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:34:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M8TlceBEeD1UHCXBMwI1 | If Trump is charged with a crime will he claim it is because of a racist prosecutor? | Resolves YES if it happens. NO if not. | 2022-09-21T11:18:14 | 2023-04-12T22:38:28 | 2023-04-12T22:38:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UUraNSGr8sSgYQ6Y0R5z | Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy before the end of 2024? | Watching the Letitia James press conference and it sure sounds like Donnie is gonna lose everything he’s got. He may need to win the presidency just to keep a roof above his head. Resolves YES if Trump files for bankruptcy by 2024. | 2022-09-21T08:58:23 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:28:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CBCpG7AUU4pnsbyBn0bg | Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023? | Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched or detonated for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2024, anywhere in the world.
Sep 29, 6:02pm: "launched" was changed to "launched or detonated" - see this comment for rationale and how to be refunded if you feel misled. | 2022-09-21T04:53:09 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:21:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QnZDPZqwHov1Q4MbeYTe | Will Bitcoin go below $6k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-15k-for-at-le-4f085eb6038f/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le) | 2022-09-20T14:49:42 | 2023-12-31T10:03:21 | 2023-12-31T10:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1IVWrEjK6TNoUO7eIhFj | Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024? | Will any of the four big chains carry a pizza with vegan crust, sauce, and cheese available in most of their locations by the end of December 2024?
The big four chains are currently Dominoes, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John's; if a new pizza place knocks one of these out of the top four, the new chain will ... | 2022-09-20T13:53:06 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:11:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OVns3V1PFbuCvTSvp3lx | Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above land internationally recognized as Japan in 2023? | This resolves to "YES" if the trajectory of any missile fired from within North Korea intersects land internationally recognized as Japan.
Sep 20, 2:38pm: Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above the Japanese mainland in 2023? → Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above land internatio... | 2022-09-20T11:37:45 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T18:31:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NJ1ImjZ4R6nPg36gw8dx | Will Bitcoin go below $10k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le-792faf4680b8/will-bitcoin-go-below-15k-for-at-le-4f085eb6038f) | 2022-09-20T06:50:54 | 2023-12-31T10:21:30 | 2023-12-31T10:21:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JAugUjWtaF8ky1BzSvP1 | Will the UK an have average of more than 500,000 net migrants per year between Sep 2022 and the next election? | Will be resolved by my best guess.
Nov 17, 12:47pm: Will the UK an average of more than 500,000 net migrants between this september 2022 and the next election? → Will the UK an average of more than 500,000 net migrants between Sep 2022 and the next election? | 2022-09-19T08:42:20 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T12:14:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mfON3jpmL8xQXHFt9MXd | Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-18T10:22:25 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:51:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gZ8QXgN2rnGurtARFbjc | Will Trump lose the Republican primary? | N/A if never announces
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-trump-be-indicted-before-he-an/what-will-be-the-first-nickname-tru) | 2022-09-18T08:30:59 | 2024-07-15T18:30:13 | 2024-07-15T18:30:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MkSIacfBrlpBD0uiZ1Zs | Will Israel launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-18T02:46:45 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:36:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-np834oZG0hBJOv7OLIUc | Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024? | New = outside current Ukraine War. War = >1000 annual battle deaths. | 2022-09-17T18:01:16 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:58:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fpDMr74pwPVayRKygWLH | Will US life expectancy bounce back up to at least 76.6 by the end of 2023? | As per the best data released by the CDC in 2023, will the average life expectancy of the American citizen reach or surpass 76.6 years at any point in 2023?
According to provisional data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) it has currently declined to 76.1 years – taking U.S. life expectancy at... | 2022-09-17T14:56:16 | 2023-12-06T15:18:38 | 2023-12-06T15:18:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CtYCT0jMb79Yi2OvIgsS | Will Trump run and not win? | (The 2024 election) | 2022-09-17T07:36:54 | 2024-11-06T15:37:10 | 2024-11-06T15:37:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OOP50Vt7C6ARgi2RgMa8 | Will Trump be indicted, run, and win? | (The 2024 election) | 2022-09-17T07:32:20 | 2024-11-06T15:36:40 | 2024-11-06T15:36:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vsydYoWhHoW86YIVtoyl | Will Bitcoin go below $15k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Grouped Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le-792faf4680b8/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le) | 2022-09-17T07:20:52 | 2023-12-31T10:21:43 | 2023-12-31T10:21:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UIKV10GO8KuEwNyTclqA | Will marijuana be legalised in the UK before labour wins a general election. (Most seats) | marijuana needs to be legal for recreational use much like California. Coalition governments are ok as long as the labour party have the highest number of seats out of all the partys. | 2022-09-17T04:26:46 | 2024-07-07T11:20:38 | 2024-07-07T11:20:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eBR8bOXbkhBoJiUGOnwo | Will the uber hacker be found before 2024? | If a person gets prosecuted, admits guilt, agrees to settle, or is very credibly accused of hacking uber in the breach of september 15th (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/technology/uber-hacking-breach.html), this resolves yes. If the person remains anonymous, it resolves no. In case of doubt, I reserve the possibili... | 2022-09-16T07:31:27 | 2023-12-30T15:43:20 | 2023-12-30T15:43:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u4R1LSba7C0vVQqvrijy | Will Ukraine take back crimea by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-15T19:46:19 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:40:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-akoaxu6i4WV4iSwbDqmo | Will the first attempt to catch a starship booster with Mechazilla result in the booster exploding | The first time mechazilla attempts to catch a booster. After the booster has flown defined as having zero contact with the ground or any structures. Will that booster explode. Contact must be made between mechazilla and the booster. If the mechazilla changes name the new name will apply. Explosion must occur within 60 ... | 2022-09-15T09:41:01 | 2024-10-17T11:06:07 | 2024-10-17T11:06:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-05e588aECRtZFJJhXXl6 | Will Rafael Nadal announce his retirement from professional tennis before 2024? | This resolves to YES if Rafael Nadal announces, before January 1, 2024, his retirement from professional tennis through an official channel such as a press conference, an interview, or an official social media account. The resolution depends on the date of the announcement not the date of the last game played. | 2022-09-15T08:39:07 | 2023-12-31T05:02:47 | 2023-12-31T05:02:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nV8BWDhfPkqvLkiz2cU2 | Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon 2023? | Roger Federer has announced his retirement from tennis.
While he will stop playing in the ATP tour, he could be granted a wildcard to play at Wimbledon 2023 and get a proper goodbye there.
Resolution Criteria
YES If Federer plays at least 1 Wimbledon singles match in 2023, NO otherwise.
| 2022-09-15T07:38:36 | 2023-07-17T09:36:52 | 2023-07-17T09:36:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eg3Bu4NpOpoJCG33nZes | Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023? | This market closes to YES if Adobe releases a press release announcing that they fully closed their Figma acquisition.
This market closes to NO if they announce that they are dropping their Figma acquisition. This market also closes to NO at Dec 31st 2023.
The creator shall not bet.
Nov 16, 7:49pm: Will Adobe close... | 2022-09-15T06:13:17 | 2023-12-19T13:40:33 | 2023-12-19T13:40:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sy2wxie2R4sp0HwdzGNo | Will ACT-1 be publicly used to accomplish a clearly and intentionally harmful task by 2024? | "Clearly": It is either completely bad, or the bad parts very much outweigh the good parts.
"Intentionally": The goal itself must be harmful. If the solution causes harm but in principle solutions might not be harmful that does not count.
I wish I could make this question less ambiguous but unfortunately "what is ha... | 2022-09-14T17:22:50 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T09:37:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9 | Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 | control defined as either the war is over and crimea is back as part of ukraine or over 50% of if is occupied by ukrainian forces as of close date. according to BBC news maps
Sep 14, 10:16pm: Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 → Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 | 2022-09-14T14:15:49 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:47:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HGQeVuSUPM1Gf3H5msHC | Will Kanye West run for president in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-14T13:42:44 | 2024-06-29T23:42:41 | 2024-06-29T23:42:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-296wanJECObn5Q1y0wuD | Will Pete Buttigieg run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES as soon as he makes a public announcement that he is running for president. Merely commenting that he plans to run would not count.
Resolves NO if this has not occurred by the first state's primary election. | 2022-09-14T13:26:31 | 2024-01-30T04:32:13 | 2024-01-30T04:32:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kwHfSX6wUeaILbyBfHCh | Will Putin flee Russia by the end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if Putin is forced to flee Russia before 31st of december 2023 midnight GMT.
Resolves to NO if he dies, gets jailed or stays in Russia. or just leaves Russia without any coercion on diplomatic travels or vacation.
If he is forced to stay away after leaving, it counts as YES. | 2022-09-14T11:38:07 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:29:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p6DLglIsm8GAhZD7fBNV | Will Mickey Mouse enter the public domain on Jan 1st, 2024? | The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent.... | 2022-09-14T11:23:19 | 2023-12-31T16:00:00 | 2024-01-01T04:32:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i5ewGmfvRfFKq5j7mWtc | Will there be another pandemic before 2025? | COVID-19 is the greatest pandemic of this century thus far, but not the only one in human history. Outbreaks of bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, and Spanish flu have already plagued humanity. In recent decades, scientists have warned of the need to prepare for a pandemic like that, as globalization, agglomeration, an... | 2022-09-13T13:57:55 | 2024-12-30T20:51:09 | 2024-12-30T20:51:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-62radchO7O3shl2Y89xY | Will any US Supreme Court Justice go through a formal impeachment process by the end of 2024? | Even though US Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh had testified under oath during their confirmation hearing that they believed Roe v. Wade settled legal precedent, they both voted to reverse the ruling in June 2022. Some lawmakers interpret this gesture as lying under oath, which could lead to an impeachment... | 2022-09-13T13:52:39 | 2024-12-30T09:52:20 | 2024-12-30T09:52:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wt5b7Ji3DFt68kZAhl6s | Will Poland leave the European Union by the end of 2023? | In October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court, whose majority of judges are loyal to the sitting government's party (Law and Justice Party, or PiS), rejected the European Union's primacy over national legislation. The decision is a direct challenge to European unity, and also the first time a member country declares... | 2022-09-13T13:50:09 | 2023-12-31T20:35:31 | 2023-12-31T20:35:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YIHTE2etptFyfgWkv9FB | Will the Supreme Court reverse the legality of same-sex marriage by the end of May 2023? | The Supreme Court of the United States struck down states’ same-sex marriage bans in 2015, with the opinion that matrimony is a fundamental right guaranteed to that segment of society in the Obergefell v. Hodges case decision. Nonetheless, justice Samuel Alito’s opinion draft against the legality of Roe vs. Wade case’s... | 2022-09-13T13:45:45 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T06:54:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XkAKYYK8J33A3tDmEvbY | Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2023? | Bitcoin prices surged following speculation that Amazon might begin to allow customers use cryptocurrencies to pay for their orders in the future. The rumors had emerged after the company published a job post for “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead”.
If by December 31, 2023, Amazon.com announces it will star... | 2022-09-13T13:42:47 | 2023-12-31T20:35:02 | 2023-12-31T20:35:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fFwsbc64FJERb8dw7Rp1 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy finish his presidential term? | If Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in office as President of Ukraine through his entire presidential term - set to end in 2024 - this market will resolve to “Yes”. | 2022-09-13T13:40:01 | 2024-05-20T20:59:00 | 2024-05-21T08:46:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QcozbDQVM3p6vnuMZuN0 | Will Walmart will issue a stablecoin before 2025? | Any crypto token with convertibility to dollars (either through store credit at WalMart or elsewhere) would qualify. An NFT with no additional functionality would not. | 2022-09-12T19:12:54 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-05T23:20:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hStM2PZnnytM4LFlW256 | Will Apple Watch support blood glucose measurement in 2023? | Will you be able to buy or preorder an Apple Watch with blood glucose measurement in 2023? | 2022-09-11T14:08:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:09:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H8pfYi1AeXKPdQQxEvYW | Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023? | This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership but does not include the case where TikTok preemp... | 2022-09-11T01:15:15 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:19:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4HNJtd3z1i4fKRwmt1aC | Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | Resolves YES if the Democratic nominee is someone other than Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Gavin Newsom.
Long overdue disambiguation: this refers to who the Democrats put on the ballot in November. So, if there's a convention and Biden is nominated, it can still resolve YES if something happens between ... | 2022-09-10T15:11:47 | 2024-11-04T21:59:00 | 2024-11-06T04:57:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rklVysCVXpJdvYcWWRta | Will Poland be governed by the Law and Justice Party on January 1st 2024 | This question resolves to YES if on January 1st 2024 the majority coalition of the Polish Sejm includes the Law and Justice Party as a member.
Sep 10, 12:51pm: | 2022-09-10T09:51:22 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:16:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HV8tNLRmU9LMAZdUKuDV | Will Putin be imprisoned by January 1, 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-10T09:32:37 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:38:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZJEVVzcMnKFmaC1F7yjj | Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? | Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? This is a shorter-term version of the Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/. The same resolution criteria are used, meaning that this market will resolve as Yes if, at any point prior to January 1, 2024, one or bo... | 2022-09-10T08:47:39 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:53:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tLQyqnAe0Z24e7gKzy2k | Will Kamala Harris LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | This market resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to lose the presidential election.
This market resolves NO if Kamala Harris does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to win the presidential election. | 2022-09-09T18:18:26 | 2024-11-06T04:36:05 | 2024-11-06T04:36:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e9ZaMThrZV1IZLhFnVxP | Will Kamala Harris WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | This market resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election.
This market resolves NO if Kamala Harris does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election. | 2022-09-09T18:17:36 | 2024-11-06T04:36:38 | 2024-11-06T04:36:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vlswVROsVR0sBAUFZNtG | Will Gavin Newsom WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | This market resolves YES if Gavin Newsom wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election.
This market resolves NO if Gavin Newsom does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election.
[image] | 2022-09-09T18:12:56 | 2024-08-06T05:24:23 | 2024-08-06T05:24:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QqnED0E9RGfDqyr8czgj | Will Joe Biden LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | This market resolves YES if Joe Biden wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to lose the presidential election.
This market resolves NO if Joe Biden does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to win the presidential election.
[image] | 2022-09-09T18:10:57 | 2024-07-21T16:01:12 | 2024-07-21T16:01:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lRpQxXsAhKHC6AkSLO29 | Will Joe Biden WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | This market resolves YES if Joe Biden wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election.
This market resolves NO if Joe Biden does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election.
[image] | 2022-09-09T18:09:14 | 2024-07-21T15:54:53 | 2024-07-21T15:55:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IQT1gDBQ0xBWWt9XsFVg | Will disconfirming evidence of the purported tomb of Genghis Kahn be discovered before the end of 2023? | Background: ARCHAEOLOGISTS UNEARTH TOMB OF GENGHIS KHAN
I will resolve YES if the plurality of academics in related fields (archaeologists, historians, etc.) appear to believe (at any point before the end of 2023) that the tomb in the recent discovery did not in fact belong the Genghis Kahn.
(I am a complete layman ... | 2022-09-08T19:41:20 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:05:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-We0jefdeyu6zBGk6xBhm | Will inflation in the United Kingdom reach 20 per cent by 30 June 2023? | This question resolves to yes if the consumer price index increases by 20 per cent or more for a 12 month period up until the end of June 2023
As determined by the Office of National Statistics. | 2022-09-07T22:52:12 | 2023-07-29T07:14:22 | 2023-07-29T07:14:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FpEhYhVGBZJAqIoVecRp | Will Artemis II launch by the end of 2024? | Not necessarily successfully. An official delay or cancellation resolves NO. | 2022-09-07T16:10:31 | 2024-08-22T15:41:18 | 2024-08-22T15:41:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S9I2SUnwUnBprMjb3jMR | Will Liz Truss be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-06T02:14:24 | 2024-12-31T00:39:00 | 2025-01-04T03:12:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-81oquBSdipCg6IQQVvgP | Will the per-image cost of DALL-E 2 go down by March 2023? | You can currently (as of September 4th, 2022) generate four images from one prompt, costing 1 credit. 115 credits can be bought for $15 USD, giving a per-image cost of about $0.0326. This resolves "yes" if the per-image cost as calculated decreases below this amount before March 1st, 2023. | 2022-09-04T23:18:08 | 2023-03-01T23:59:00 | 2023-03-02T11:34:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YlYHF2SjXjl7VaRAwlII | Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023? | This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces the release of GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.
Clarification: Pre... | 2022-09-04T14:54:37 | 2023-03-01T12:00:00 | 2023-03-06T12:45:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0nlYTzXipsZMfMqq5U4D | Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-09-01T22:10:31 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T07:26:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MPzDRXhIYJ3xD5RgX17t | Will Israel preemptively launch non-clandestine strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities before June 1, 2023? | Resolves YES if Israel preemptively and overtly launches airstrikes on Iranian targets associated with the country's nuclear weapons program before June 1, 2023. Resolves NO if not.
[markets] | 2022-09-01T15:25:50 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T05:23:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E8fipiTSxCtgf94PsSXO | Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League goal record in the 22/23 season? (32 goals) | (Counting only PLs in the 38 game format) | 2022-09-01T02:18:50 | 2023-04-27T05:37:24 | 2023-04-27T05:37:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-J9afMzV9x2mSj03aAXC5 | Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump attempts to avoid charged by pulling a 'Snowden' and refuses to return from abroad. Not necessary for him to formally seek asylum, but if he does that resolves YES. Resolves NO if Trump is in the US when charges are filed and thus unable to flee the country.
Aug 31, 5:12pm: Will Donald Tr... | 2022-08-31T14:12:03 | 2023-12-31T20:39:06 | 2023-12-31T20:39:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8moSO3iOaiJ6yhHkiCW | Joe Biden is still president at the end of 2023 | Inspired by Joe Biden is still president at the end of 2022
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/joe-biden-is-still-president-at-the | 2022-08-31T11:27:45 | 2024-01-01T07:00:00 | 2024-01-01T07:41:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JetNCOdTpcm4LzrkJqeY | Will Arsenal win the Premier League this season? | Hopium | 2022-08-27T23:37:54 | 2023-05-21T01:09:13 | 2023-05-21T01:09:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CswL8fk2ZugBgqqsXjjf | Will Apple show an AR headset (like Apple Glasses) by the end of 2023? | Will Apple publicly showcase an Augmented Reality headset by the end of 2023? Must have transparent optics, a camera passthrough VR/MR device does not count.
Jan 9, 12:51am: Will Apple show an AR headset by the end of 2023? → Will Apple show an AR headset (like Apple Glasses) by the end of 2023? | 2022-08-27T13:38:12 | 2023-12-31T21:35:11 | 2023-12-31T21:35:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
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