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forecasting

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mani-NMM9vyBwQrnFqbA8VHu4
If there has been no nuclear strike will NATO troops intervene on the ground before April 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-05T05:15:22
2023-04-30T16:01:00
2023-04-30T16:07:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dRdXZtj8UXiXxkoF2rXE
SBF convicted of a felony before 2026
Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried and found guilty in absentia. Clarification: AFAICT, 'felony' is a term only used in the United States. If SBF is convicted of a crime outside of the USA, the crime will be deemed a felony if the equivalent crime is considered a felony in the USA.
2022-10-05T05:06:13
2023-11-02T19:45:57
2023-11-02T19:45:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RwLTtw9XEOvgKAW6ys0X
Will Phil Fish announce a sequel to Fez in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-04T18:11:04
2023-12-31T10:37:29
2023-12-31T10:37:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QxA2ldji6WDMWrcI8yyc
Will the company Beyond Meat (BYND) be bought out by another company before the end of 2024?
Beyond Meat is a distressed fake meat company which may have the potential to be purchased by a larger brand. If this occurs, the market will resolve to YES. If it does not occur, and we have reached the end of 2024, then the market will resolve to NO. We will only consider a buyout to be valid if the stock is completely delisted from all stock exchanges since this is what they do for buyouts.
2022-10-04T13:35:26
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-03T08:01:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z7gmcmOujRkwtP85uoUg
Will Manchester City Win The 22/23 Premier League
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-04T11:34:26
2023-05-24T07:11:53
2023-05-24T07:11:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mwwO1mqSiE2VWdXLZ7AN
Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if any part of Russian breaks off from the motherland and forms a new state, similar to what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by the end of 2024.
2022-10-04T06:55:59
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T07:08:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Vz82WrIiE71Pf0C7GfqD
Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer?
At the end of the 2022/23 we will see who the top scorer was for the Premier League.
2022-10-03T08:28:29
2023-05-28T13:53:34
2023-05-28T13:53:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5R9mFEyLuEZ8EA1M7gR0
Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer?
At the end of the 2022/23 we will see who the top scorer was for the Premier League. Oct 3, 12:28pm: Wil Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? → Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer?
2022-10-03T08:26:56
2023-05-28T13:52:40
2023-05-28T13:52:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZPAnV0cFwgevbNt7eeIo
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind. AlphaFold (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. It was iterated upon and a second version (AlphaFold 2, AF2) was released to the public in 2021. AF and AF2 placed first in the overall rankings of CASP13 and CASP14 respectively. It is widely regarded as a transformational leap the structural biology space [1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4 Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030? This question will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2029, the official website of the Nobel Prizes (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-n…) lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold.
2022-10-03T03:01:53
2024-10-09T06:10:43
2024-10-09T06:10:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3BqmiWgb6njYBMNaEyhP
Will there be any mobilization in Poland before 2025?
Resolves YES if there's any credible reports of people being mobilized into the polish armed forces before 2025. This excludes mandatory training, as long as it does not lead to being an active part of the military.
2022-10-03T01:23:41
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2024-12-31T17:41:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-399JIdJfYks6WLhOK52e
Will Joe Biden still be alive on the beginning of Jan 19, 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-02T09:03:41
2025-01-18T21:00:00
2025-01-19T05:33:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-i46XYFf3UOFfgfRoZPrN
Will Joe Biden be the US head of state on the beginning of Jan 19, 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-02T09:02:27
2025-01-18T21:00:00
2025-01-19T05:32:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VexfDCZuOimCSsra6AgJ
Will a flash crash of US or European stock markets occur before the end of 2023?
Will a new entry on Wikipedia's page [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash] appear recording a confirmed flash crash between October 2nd, 2022 and December 31st, 2023?
2022-10-02T05:04:04
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T08:22:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AhqilzfWix8nai81v0EL
Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2023?
This market will resolve to "YES" if, from September 1, 2022, through December 31 2023, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government. If by the end of 2023 Mateusz Morawiecki for any reason stops being Prime Minister of Poland, this market will resolve to "NO".
2022-10-02T03:20:38
2023-12-11T10:47:39
2023-12-11T10:47:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vTq9HHRIc6PlE99lfwOU
Will Credit Suisse declare bankruptcy before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-01T17:47:20
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:05:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6Qq1JmhJ8wj7EPJWwuXS
Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by June 2024?
This question resolves YES if the Busy Beaver Challenge has been completed by the close date, as determined by some page on the bbchallenge.org website indicating that all 5-state Turing Machines have been decided. An exception is that if all machines are decided, but the Busy Beaver is still not known (due to multiple machines being known to halt but it being unclear which runs longest), that will not be enough to resolve the market YES. Close date updated to 2024-06-01 11:59 pm Oct 3, 3:12pm: In the interest of keeping the title in line with the description in the scenario where the above website goes defunct, I'll add another possibility for YES resolution: If Scott Aaronson makes a public statement that the 5-state Busy Beaver is known, then I will accept that as a Yes.
2022-10-01T10:54:59
2024-06-01T23:59:00
2024-06-02T21:35:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L0OMUzA1gr9pea7TaDLh
Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?
Ill resolve along same criteria as the original market, but with a different date (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-fo)
2022-09-30T22:47:47
2023-07-29T17:02:51
2023-07-29T17:02:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-h7donB7Jbls29Xt4umvZ
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024?
Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different? This question will resolve as YES if the collapse of the regime is reported by a reputable news source such as AP or Reuters by 11:59 pm on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO. Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/belikewater/will-the-government-of-the-islamic)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-4b5008c16d33) Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-09-30T22:31:45
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-23T13:58:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8zCxM0OFdF5UxHDCXdNd
Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025
Credit Suisse Group AG of Zurich, Switzerland (SIX: CSGN, NYSE: CS) either declares bankruptcy or is found to be insolvent by auditors or regulators before 2025. The data for resolving this question will come from financial regulatory filings or a reputable financial newspaper such as the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times of London.
2022-09-30T21:55:30
2024-12-31T08:01:00
2025-01-01T05:23:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5J7GWI9LpkM76sXiO10z
Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?
If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time. Otherwise, resolves to the same as https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5, whenever that does resolve. "Peace deal" is a bit vague, but I'll try to keep it consistent with definitions used in other markets, esp https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-a-peace-agreement-in. Worst case I'll use a market to see if a peace deal has been reached, though I expect it will be clearer than that. Paired market with https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine, in response to Robin Hanson's suggestion at https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1575642774384578560 (https://manifold.markets/embed/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine)Sep 29, 8:01pm: Clarified what happens if there's a deal that later falls through: as soon as there's any deal for any length of time, this market will N/A and the other market will go forward.
2022-09-29T18:33:47
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-15T15:43:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aI9MfL81D3YGn9iOvZfF
Will chemical weapons be used in Ukraine by the end of 2023?
[left open while waiting for the resolution criteria below - please read the entire description before betting] Does not need to lead to deaths to resolve YES, but only use as a military technique counts, not as an assassination technique. Per https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk#Xfufv9JlsL4TYNIemLIi this will use the following resolution criteria: The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons. There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia. At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post. As of Dec 25th, there have been reports like https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/europe/ukraine-soldiers-russia-frontlines-cmd-intl/index.html of tear gas use, and even https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2023 reporting that the Russian forces involved have confirmed their own use of them. I may wait up to an additional 3 months to resolve this, but will only use reporting/resolution/statements that cover chemical weapons use in 2023 for resolution. (I may also simply resolve this N/A.) Related markets: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-russia-use-chemical-weapons-in
2022-09-29T18:20:45
2024-02-27T16:01:05
2024-02-27T16:01:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XR5JhLjnAM85Z8mPwnBV
Will there be 5 or more faithless electors in the 2024 US presidential election?
This includes both validated and invalidated votes.
2022-09-29T07:56:32
2024-12-31T00:03:39
2024-12-31T00:03:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YWGeplMkudawqroG0gL6
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-28T15:49:49
2024-01-01T13:45:51
2024-01-01T13:45:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uzcmE1jRGm57dS6mKV5v
Will USD/CNY breaks 7.5 before the end of Q1 2023?
This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.5000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8). China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a “monitoring list” for currency practices along with nine other countries, including Germany, Italy and Japan. I'll go by whatever is the latest quoted price shown on Investing.com. (https://in.investing.com/currencies/usd-cny)Sep 28, 10:37am: FYI A resloved market as below (https://manifold.markets/embed/stormtk293/will-usdcny-breaks-72-before-the-en)
2022-09-27T19:35:52
2023-03-31T08:59:00
2023-10-13T14:37:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eXBkM0jeWNehZJOmmKQz
Will the bank of England base rate reach 5.5% anytime in 2023 (or higher)
The interest rate set by the bank of England. by the end of the year 2023 or sooner
2022-09-26T14:23:47
2023-12-28T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:50:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sAoU2gji3YhELBN3LTlI
Will King Charles permanently exile Prince Harry from the UK by 11:59pm 12/31/24?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-26T07:29:09
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T08:10:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WuFAjuE026RcivBf27za
Will the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF spot market rise above 200€/MWh between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023?
The question will resolve to "YES" if, at any point between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023, day-ahead or weekend contracts on the Dutch TTF spot market are traded at 200€/MWh or more at the end of the day according to the data published by EEX (https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data).
2022-09-26T05:41:25
2023-03-01T09:00:00
2023-03-01T10:03:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SIwKRDNWnaojwyOQjqmz
Will Do Kwon be convicted of a crime by 2025?
[tweet]
2022-09-25T19:31:47
2023-07-31T12:33:08
2023-07-31T12:33:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YkhA4ifHNhjemxJmqYJz
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2023?
Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different? This question will resolve as YES if the collapse of the regime is reported by a reputable news source such as AP or Reuters by 11:59 pm on December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO. Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/belikewater/will-the-government-of-the-islamic)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-611637199b47) Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-09-24T22:15:54
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:53:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-untYqE8I1Qv95Uiu56P6
Will the Economist endorse the Conservatives in the next UK General Election?
This questions resolves to YES if the Economist endorses the Conservatives, including if they endorse the Conservatives as part of a potential coalition government or if they give some caveat such as endorsing a Conservative vote despite hoping for a hung parliament. Here are the previous Economist endorsements: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_editorial_stance#British_general_elections
2022-09-24T15:31:28
2024-06-29T18:38:49
2024-06-29T18:38:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mOMXxka5BQFXyalnZ2Ah
Will US citizens be getting boosters modified for another mutation of Omicron before July 2023?
Will there be a vaccine/booster specifically designed to target not just Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, but some other mutation (e.g., BA.2.75.2) available to a portion of the general population (e.g., military is not sufficient, Moderately or Severely Immunocompromised is) by the last day of June, 2023?
2022-09-24T14:55:06
2023-07-01T20:59:00
2023-07-02T04:55:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S9xaZi56HNsTeCvrWHWE
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
This question resolves to "YES" if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥100 unique runners on speedrun.com or another leaderboard) of any video game released before 2022, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time. Native PC or emulated console games are both fine. Criteria for resolution: The AI must be capable of speedrunning the game in real time and learn to do so without direct human assistance (learning from e.g. Youtube videos is fine). A traditional TAS (tool-assisted speedrun) does not count. The AI must not receive any information about the game that a human speedrunner wouldn't be able to know during a run, e.g. watching RAM values while playing. Ideally the AI should only receive game's pixels (possibly downscaled or otherwise processed) and maybe audio as input, but this is not a strict requirement. The AI should ideally follow all the rules of the specific game and category it is running, as listed on the game's speedrun.com page (or elsewhere). If there are minor rule breaks, but the AI's run is still obviously much more impressive than the most comparable human WR, I may choose to ignore this requirement. It must be a full-game, non-segmented run, not an IL (individual level) speedrun. The human world record in the category must be over 3 minutes long. Very short speedruns don't count. I will use my best judgment to resolve this based on the criteria above and will not bet myself.
2022-09-24T02:16:46
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2024-12-31T23:25:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VXVYi542EjcshXQjyNxN
Will mortgage rates fall below 5% anytime before the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms falls below 5% anytime before the end of 2024. Otherwise NO. For reference, the most recent rate when this market opened was 6.29% on 9/22. The rate briefly dipped to 4.99% in August. Related questions (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-mortgage-rates-fall-below-6-an/will-mortgage-rates-fall-below-55-a/will-mortgage-rates-fall-below-5-an)
2022-09-23T16:27:53
2024-12-31T15:00:12
2024-12-31T15:00:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jGdOLIVWI5ktZstPn2tQ
Will the Republican nominee be either Trump or DeSantis?
Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/what-percent-of-delegates-will-dona/will-trump-receive-at-least-60-mill)
2022-09-22T18:45:34
2024-07-27T15:17:48
2024-07-27T15:17:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3WVUxuLeKoXFcpcStlB4
Will the Fed hike at every meeting through March 2023?
November 1-2 December 13-14* Jan/Feb 31-1 March 21-22* Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-the-fed-hike-at-every-meeting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-b74b506753f8)
2022-09-22T15:18:55
2023-03-22T10:59:00
2023-03-22T11:06:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BOoIX7lszJoPnLyqfjoH
Will Biden and Trump be the next presidential nominees of their parties?
Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024. If either party initially nominated another person this resolves NO. Only the first nomination matters, replacements don't count.
2022-09-22T11:22:19
2024-08-08T00:12:57
2024-08-08T00:12:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9jhVq14Eey1E4w8uSfW3
Will Bitcoin go above $50k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
Full 24hours on Coingecko Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-30k-for-at-le)
2022-09-22T09:44:55
2023-12-31T10:20:19
2023-12-31T10:20:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yx6B2eqvG1OyA9OIexEk
Will Bigmode (videogamedunkey's new company) publish at least one game in 2023?
Gaming YouTuber videogamedunkey has announced his new games publishing company he's starting with his wife, fellow YouTuber Leahbee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEt27Jgp8gs Will the company, Bigmode, publish at least one game in 2023? This market resolves YES immediately if a Bigmode-published game is released to market in 2023, and NO at the end of the year otherwise. Betting policy: I will not bet in this market. (E/N: I would love to see better near-term operationalizations of the general idea of whether the company will succeed!)
2022-09-21T20:49:28
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T16:57:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UTNIaUBUr60Sh2zE2EVe
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?
At any meeting. Jan/Feb 31-1 March 21-22* May 2-3 June 13-14* July 25-26 September 19-20* Oct/Nov 31-1 December 12-13*
2022-09-21T17:51:24
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T12:14:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JKC93ishYThhw1V3xIVC
Will the total crypto market cap reach >3 trillion before 2024?
The market resolves to YES if before 2024 the total crypto market is above 3 trillion USD for at least 24 hours, indicated by coinmarketcap, coingecko, or better data source.
2022-09-21T12:38:05
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T06:34:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M8TlceBEeD1UHCXBMwI1
If Trump is charged with a crime will he claim it is because of a racist prosecutor?
Resolves YES if it happens. NO if not.
2022-09-21T11:18:14
2023-04-12T22:38:28
2023-04-12T22:38:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UUraNSGr8sSgYQ6Y0R5z
Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy before the end of 2024?
Watching the Letitia James press conference and it sure sounds like Donnie is gonna lose everything he’s got. He may need to win the presidency just to keep a roof above his head. Resolves YES if Trump files for bankruptcy by 2024.
2022-09-21T08:58:23
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:28:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CBCpG7AUU4pnsbyBn0bg
Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023?
Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched or detonated for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2024, anywhere in the world. Sep 29, 6:02pm: "launched" was changed to "launched or detonated" - see this comment for rationale and how to be refunded if you feel misled.
2022-09-21T04:53:09
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T01:21:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QnZDPZqwHov1Q4MbeYTe
Will Bitcoin go below $6k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
Full 24hours on Coingecko Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-15k-for-at-le-4f085eb6038f/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le)
2022-09-20T14:49:42
2023-12-31T10:03:21
2023-12-31T10:03:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1IVWrEjK6TNoUO7eIhFj
Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?
Will any of the four big chains carry a pizza with vegan crust, sauce, and cheese available in most of their locations by the end of December 2024? The big four chains are currently Dominoes, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John's; if a new pizza place knocks one of these out of the top four, the new chain will be eligible to resolve this as YES if it offers an eligible pizza.
2022-09-20T13:53:06
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T12:11:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OVns3V1PFbuCvTSvp3lx
Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above land internationally recognized as Japan in 2023?
This resolves to "YES" if the trajectory of any missile fired from within North Korea intersects land internationally recognized as Japan. Sep 20, 2:38pm: Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above the Japanese mainland in 2023? → Will North Korea fire missiles that travel directly above land internationally recognized as Japan in 2023?
2022-09-20T11:37:45
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T18:31:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NJ1ImjZ4R6nPg36gw8dx
Will Bitcoin go below $10k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
Full 24hours on Coingecko Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le-792faf4680b8/will-bitcoin-go-below-15k-for-at-le-4f085eb6038f)
2022-09-20T06:50:54
2023-12-31T10:21:30
2023-12-31T10:21:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JAugUjWtaF8ky1BzSvP1
Will the UK an have average of more than 500,000 net migrants per year between Sep 2022 and the next election?
Will be resolved by my best guess. Nov 17, 12:47pm: Will the UK an average of more than 500,000 net migrants between this september 2022 and the next election? → Will the UK an average of more than 500,000 net migrants between Sep 2022 and the next election?
2022-09-19T08:42:20
2025-01-01T15:59:00
2025-01-04T12:14:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mfON3jpmL8xQXHFt9MXd
Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-18T10:22:25
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:51:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gZ8QXgN2rnGurtARFbjc
Will Trump lose the Republican primary?
N/A if never announces Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-trump-be-indicted-before-he-an/what-will-be-the-first-nickname-tru)
2022-09-18T08:30:59
2024-07-15T18:30:13
2024-07-15T18:30:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MkSIacfBrlpBD0uiZ1Zs
Will Israel launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-18T02:46:45
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:36:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-np834oZG0hBJOv7OLIUc
Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024?
New = outside current Ukraine War. War = >1000 annual battle deaths.
2022-09-17T18:01:16
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:58:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fpDMr74pwPVayRKygWLH
Will US life expectancy bounce back up to at least 76.6 by the end of 2023?
As per the best data released by the CDC in 2023, will the average life expectancy of the American citizen reach or surpass 76.6 years at any point in 2023? According to provisional data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) it has currently declined to 76.1 years – taking U.S. life expectancy at birth to its lowest level since 1996.
2022-09-17T14:56:16
2023-12-06T15:18:38
2023-12-06T15:18:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CtYCT0jMb79Yi2OvIgsS
Will Trump run and not win?
(The 2024 election)
2022-09-17T07:36:54
2024-11-06T15:37:10
2024-11-06T15:37:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OOP50Vt7C6ARgi2RgMa8
Will Trump be indicted, run, and win?
(The 2024 election)
2022-09-17T07:32:20
2024-11-06T15:36:40
2024-11-06T15:36:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vsydYoWhHoW86YIVtoyl
Will Bitcoin go below $15k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
Full 24hours on Coingecko Grouped Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le-792faf4680b8/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le)
2022-09-17T07:20:52
2023-12-31T10:21:43
2023-12-31T10:21:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UIKV10GO8KuEwNyTclqA
Will marijuana be legalised in the UK before labour wins a general election. (Most seats)
marijuana needs to be legal for recreational use much like California. Coalition governments are ok as long as the labour party have the highest number of seats out of all the partys.
2022-09-17T04:26:46
2024-07-07T11:20:38
2024-07-07T11:20:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eBR8bOXbkhBoJiUGOnwo
Will the uber hacker be found before 2024?
If a person gets prosecuted, admits guilt, agrees to settle, or is very credibly accused of hacking uber in the breach of september 15th (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/technology/uber-hacking-breach.html), this resolves yes. If the person remains anonymous, it resolves no. In case of doubt, I reserve the possibility of resolving PROB based on my credence that the person accused/indicted for this actually is responsible.
2022-09-16T07:31:27
2023-12-30T15:43:20
2023-12-30T15:43:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-u4R1LSba7C0vVQqvrijy
Will Ukraine take back crimea by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-15T19:46:19
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T11:40:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-akoaxu6i4WV4iSwbDqmo
Will the first attempt to catch a starship booster with Mechazilla result in the booster exploding
The first time mechazilla attempts to catch a booster. After the booster has flown defined as having zero contact with the ground or any structures. Will that booster explode. Contact must be made between mechazilla and the booster. If the mechazilla changes name the new name will apply. Explosion must occur within 60 minuits of first contact. Sep 15, 8:25pm:
2022-09-15T09:41:01
2024-10-17T11:06:07
2024-10-17T11:06:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-05e588aECRtZFJJhXXl6
Will Rafael Nadal announce his retirement from professional tennis before 2024?
This resolves to YES if Rafael Nadal announces, before January 1, 2024, his retirement from professional tennis through an official channel such as a press conference, an interview, or an official social media account. The resolution depends on the date of the announcement not the date of the last game played.
2022-09-15T08:39:07
2023-12-31T05:02:47
2023-12-31T05:02:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nV8BWDhfPkqvLkiz2cU2
Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon 2023?
Roger Federer has announced his retirement from tennis. While he will stop playing in the ATP tour, he could be granted a wildcard to play at Wimbledon 2023 and get a proper goodbye there. Resolution Criteria YES If Federer plays at least 1 Wimbledon singles match in 2023, NO otherwise.
2022-09-15T07:38:36
2023-07-17T09:36:52
2023-07-17T09:36:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eg3Bu4NpOpoJCG33nZes
Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?
This market closes to YES if Adobe releases a press release announcing that they fully closed their Figma acquisition. This market closes to NO if they announce that they are dropping their Figma acquisition. This market also closes to NO at Dec 31st 2023. The creator shall not bet. Nov 16, 7:49pm: Will Adobe close the Figma acquisition until the end of 2023? → Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?
2022-09-15T06:13:17
2023-12-19T13:40:33
2023-12-19T13:40:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sy2wxie2R4sp0HwdzGNo
Will ACT-1 be publicly used to accomplish a clearly and intentionally harmful task by 2024?
"Clearly": It is either completely bad, or the bad parts very much outweigh the good parts. "Intentionally": The goal itself must be harmful. If the solution causes harm but in principle solutions might not be harmful that does not count. I wish I could make this question less ambiguous but unfortunately "what is harm" is still an open question. I won't count a demonstration that it could be used to cause harm. This question is about it actually being used harmfully. Sep 14, 5:29pm: Sep 14, 6:46pm: Link: https://www.adept.ai/act
2022-09-14T17:22:50
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T09:37:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9
Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023
control defined as either the war is over and crimea is back as part of ukraine or over 50% of if is occupied by ukrainian forces as of close date. according to BBC news maps Sep 14, 10:16pm: Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023 → Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023
2022-09-14T14:15:49
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:47:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HGQeVuSUPM1Gf3H5msHC
Will Kanye West run for president in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-14T13:42:44
2024-06-29T23:42:41
2024-06-29T23:42:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-296wanJECObn5Q1y0wuD
Will Pete Buttigieg run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES as soon as he makes a public announcement that he is running for president. Merely commenting that he plans to run would not count. Resolves NO if this has not occurred by the first state's primary election.
2022-09-14T13:26:31
2024-01-30T04:32:13
2024-01-30T04:32:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kwHfSX6wUeaILbyBfHCh
Will Putin flee Russia by the end of 2023?
Resolves to YES if Putin is forced to flee Russia before 31st of december 2023 midnight GMT. Resolves to NO if he dies, gets jailed or stays in Russia. or just leaves Russia without any coercion on diplomatic travels or vacation. If he is forced to stay away after leaving, it counts as YES.
2022-09-14T11:38:07
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T04:29:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p6DLglIsm8GAhZD7fBNV
Will Mickey Mouse enter the public domain on Jan 1st, 2024?
The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent. Will this time finally be the time, or will he escape again? Place your bets! RESOLUTION CLARIFICATION: This seems pretty difficult to stop now but I will wait for reputable press articles in Jan 2024 to say 'Mickey Mouse is public domain now' or words to that effect before resolving.
2022-09-14T11:23:19
2023-12-31T16:00:00
2024-01-01T04:32:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-i5ewGmfvRfFKq5j7mWtc
Will there be another pandemic before 2025?
COVID-19 is the greatest pandemic of this century thus far, but not the only one in human history. Outbreaks of bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, and Spanish flu have already plagued humanity. In recent decades, scientists have warned of the need to prepare for a pandemic like that, as globalization, agglomeration, and consumption of animals considered virus reservoirs increase the chance of new diseases. Taking all that into account, will another pandemic strike humanity before 2025? If by December 31st, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares that the world is facing a new pandemic, the question resolves yes. If no pandemic is declared by December 31st, 2024, this question will be resolved as no.
2022-09-13T13:57:55
2024-12-30T20:51:09
2024-12-30T20:51:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-62radchO7O3shl2Y89xY
Will any US Supreme Court Justice go through a formal impeachment process by the end of 2024?
Even though US Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh had testified under oath during their confirmation hearing that they believed Roe v. Wade settled legal precedent, they both voted to reverse the ruling in June 2022. Some lawmakers interpret this gesture as lying under oath, which could lead to an impeachment process. If any Supreme Court Justice becomes the target of an impeachment process that is formally opened by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The Justice does not necessarily need to be removed from office or step down in order to this market to resolve as “Yes”.
2022-09-13T13:52:39
2024-12-30T09:52:20
2024-12-30T09:52:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wt5b7Ji3DFt68kZAhl6s
Will Poland leave the European Union by the end of 2023?
In October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court, whose majority of judges are loyal to the sitting government's party (Law and Justice Party, or PiS), rejected the European Union's primacy over national legislation. The decision is a direct challenge to European unity, and also the first time a member country declares not only to have sovereignty over the bloc but also that its national treaties are incompatible with the European Union's. The stance made Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, speak out warning that the country could face sanctions. The escalation of tension between the Polish government and the European Union has made the term "Polexit", which means the country's exit from the European Union, become popular, to the point that the country's main opposition leader, Donald Tusk, called for protests in defense of Poland's permanence in the bloc of 27 countries. If Poland leaves the European Union by the end of 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
2022-09-13T13:50:09
2023-12-31T20:35:31
2023-12-31T20:35:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YIHTE2etptFyfgWkv9FB
Will the Supreme Court reverse the legality of same-sex marriage by the end of May 2023?
The Supreme Court of the United States struck down states’ same-sex marriage bans in 2015, with the opinion that matrimony is a fundamental right guaranteed to that segment of society in the Obergefell v. Hodges case decision. Nonetheless, justice Samuel Alito’s opinion draft against the legality of Roe vs. Wade case’s landmark decision (related to abortion rights), leaked in May 2022, raised concerns to observers regarding the revision of this and other topics that might impact civil rights in the US. If, by June 1st, 2023, the justices of the US Supreme Court issue the opinion that Obergefell v. Hodgens case’s decision goes against the Constitution, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. The opinion issued by the court must necessarily reverse key effects of the 2015 decision in order to resolve this market as “Yes”.
2022-09-13T13:45:45
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-06-01T06:54:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XkAKYYK8J33A3tDmEvbY
Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2023?
Bitcoin prices surged following speculation that Amazon might begin to allow customers use cryptocurrencies to pay for their orders in the future. The rumors had emerged after the company published a job post for “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead”. If by December 31, 2023, Amazon.com announces it will start accepting Bitcoin as payment method , this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
2022-09-13T13:42:47
2023-12-31T20:35:02
2023-12-31T20:35:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fFwsbc64FJERb8dw7Rp1
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy finish his presidential term?
If Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in office as President of Ukraine through his entire presidential term - set to end in 2024 - this market will resolve to “Yes”.
2022-09-13T13:40:01
2024-05-20T20:59:00
2024-05-21T08:46:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QcozbDQVM3p6vnuMZuN0
Will Walmart will issue a stablecoin before 2025?
Any crypto token with convertibility to dollars (either through store credit at WalMart or elsewhere) would qualify. An NFT with no additional functionality would not.
2022-09-12T19:12:54
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-05T23:20:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hStM2PZnnytM4LFlW256
Will Apple Watch support blood glucose measurement in 2023?
Will you be able to buy or preorder an Apple Watch with blood glucose measurement in 2023?
2022-09-11T14:08:28
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:09:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-H8pfYi1AeXKPdQQxEvYW
Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?
This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership but does not include the case where TikTok preemptively decides to change ownership without any actual action on the part of any US government action. "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity. This also includes federal-level audits and US government changes to the economic playing field that are specifically targetted at TikTok. The edge case where legislation has been set in motion but has not passed yet counts as YES if it seems like it has the votes to pass and NO if it doesn't (based off of my best assessment at the time). This also resolves to YES even if the ban is subsequently challenged in courts as long as the ban would take place without a successfuly challenge though note that "banned in the US" means banned for all users in the US (so for example only for one state or only for government employees doesn't meet the criterion). Mar 31, 1:00pm: Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership? → Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?
2022-09-11T01:15:15
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T09:19:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4HNJtd3z1i4fKRwmt1aC
Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
Resolves YES if the Democratic nominee is someone other than Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Gavin Newsom. Long overdue disambiguation: this refers to who the Democrats put on the ballot in November. So, if there's a convention and Biden is nominated, it can still resolve YES if something happens between then and November, and the Democrats put forward someone else who isn't mentioned in the title.
2022-09-10T15:11:47
2024-11-04T21:59:00
2024-11-06T04:57:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rklVysCVXpJdvYcWWRta
Will Poland be governed by the Law and Justice Party on January 1st 2024
This question resolves to YES if on January 1st 2024 the majority coalition of the Polish Sejm includes the Law and Justice Party as a member. Sep 10, 12:51pm:
2022-09-10T09:51:22
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:16:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HV8tNLRmU9LMAZdUKuDV
Will Putin be imprisoned by January 1, 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-10T09:32:37
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:38:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZJEVVzcMnKFmaC1F7yjj
Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023?
Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? This is a shorter-term version of the Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/. The same resolution criteria are used, meaning that this market will resolve as Yes if, at any point prior to January 1, 2024, one or both of these two conditions are true: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. #China #Taiwan #SouthChinaSea
2022-09-10T08:47:39
2023-12-31T19:59:00
2023-12-31T21:53:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tLQyqnAe0Z24e7gKzy2k
Will Kamala Harris LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
This market resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to lose the presidential election. This market resolves NO if Kamala Harris does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to win the presidential election.
2022-09-09T18:18:26
2024-11-06T04:36:05
2024-11-06T04:36:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-e9ZaMThrZV1IZLhFnVxP
Will Kamala Harris WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
This market resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election. This market resolves NO if Kamala Harris does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election.
2022-09-09T18:17:36
2024-11-06T04:36:38
2024-11-06T04:36:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vlswVROsVR0sBAUFZNtG
Will Gavin Newsom WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
This market resolves YES if Gavin Newsom wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election. This market resolves NO if Gavin Newsom does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election. [image]
2022-09-09T18:12:56
2024-08-06T05:24:23
2024-08-06T05:24:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QqnED0E9RGfDqyr8czgj
Will Joe Biden LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to lose the presidential election. This market resolves NO if Joe Biden does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to win the presidential election. [image]
2022-09-09T18:10:57
2024-07-21T16:01:12
2024-07-21T16:01:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lRpQxXsAhKHC6AkSLO29
Will Joe Biden WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election. This market resolves NO if Joe Biden does not win the nomination or is nominated and goes on to lose the presidential election. [image]
2022-09-09T18:09:14
2024-07-21T15:54:53
2024-07-21T15:55:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IQT1gDBQ0xBWWt9XsFVg
Will disconfirming evidence of the purported tomb of Genghis Kahn be discovered before the end of 2023?
Background: ARCHAEOLOGISTS UNEARTH TOMB OF GENGHIS KHAN I will resolve YES if the plurality of academics in related fields (archaeologists, historians, etc.) appear to believe (at any point before the end of 2023) that the tomb in the recent discovery did not in fact belong the Genghis Kahn. (I am a complete layman with no special expertise in this area and will probably be relying on popular articles to make this judgment. Feel free to post relevant materials below to sway my judgment.)
2022-09-08T19:41:20
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:05:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-We0jefdeyu6zBGk6xBhm
Will inflation in the United Kingdom reach 20 per cent by 30 June 2023?
This question resolves to yes if the consumer price index increases by 20 per cent or more for a 12 month period up until the end of June 2023 As determined by the Office of National Statistics.
2022-09-07T22:52:12
2023-07-29T07:14:22
2023-07-29T07:14:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FpEhYhVGBZJAqIoVecRp
Will Artemis II launch by the end of 2024?
Not necessarily successfully. An official delay or cancellation resolves NO.
2022-09-07T16:10:31
2024-08-22T15:41:18
2024-08-22T15:41:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S9I2SUnwUnBprMjb3jMR
Will Liz Truss be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-06T02:14:24
2024-12-31T00:39:00
2025-01-04T03:12:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-81oquBSdipCg6IQQVvgP
Will the per-image cost of DALL-E 2 go down by March 2023?
You can currently (as of September 4th, 2022) generate four images from one prompt, costing 1 credit. 115 credits can be bought for $15 USD, giving a per-image cost of about $0.0326. This resolves "yes" if the per-image cost as calculated decreases below this amount before March 1st, 2023.
2022-09-04T23:18:08
2023-03-01T23:59:00
2023-03-02T11:34:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YlYHF2SjXjl7VaRAwlII
Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?
This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces the release of GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases. Clarification: Previously this question was ambiguous. Therefore, I will add these terms, If GPT-4 is announced and released before March 1st, this question resolves to YES. If GPT-4 is announced but not released, or released but not announced, before March 1st, this question resolves to N/A. If GPT-4 is neither announced nor released before March 1st, this question resolves to NO. To "announce the release of" GPT-4 means to make a statement to the effect that they're planning on releasing a system that the OpenAI staff consistently refer to as "GPT-4", or that they have already released such a system. Added: If Bing's AI is revealed to be GPT-4 before March 1st by the staff of OpenAI, then that will count, and the question will resolve to YES. Feb 7, 1:20pm: Will GPT-4 be announced before March 1st 2023? → Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?
2022-09-04T14:54:37
2023-03-01T12:00:00
2023-03-06T12:45:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0nlYTzXipsZMfMqq5U4D
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-09-01T22:10:31
2024-11-05T23:59:00
2024-11-06T07:26:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MPzDRXhIYJ3xD5RgX17t
Will Israel preemptively launch non-clandestine strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities before June 1, 2023?
Resolves YES if Israel preemptively and overtly launches airstrikes on Iranian targets associated with the country's nuclear weapons program before June 1, 2023. Resolves NO if not. [markets]
2022-09-01T15:25:50
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-06-01T05:23:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E8fipiTSxCtgf94PsSXO
Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League goal record in the 22/23 season? (32 goals)
(Counting only PLs in the 38 game format)
2022-09-01T02:18:50
2023-04-27T05:37:24
2023-04-27T05:37:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-J9afMzV9x2mSj03aAXC5
Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump attempts to avoid charged by pulling a 'Snowden' and refuses to return from abroad. Not necessary for him to formally seek asylum, but if he does that resolves YES. Resolves NO if Trump is in the US when charges are filed and thus unable to flee the country. Aug 31, 5:12pm: Will Donald Trump leave the country before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered? → Will Donald Trump pull a 'Snowden' and leave the US before being charged in any jurisdiction and fail to return when so ordered after charges are filed?
2022-08-31T14:12:03
2023-12-31T20:39:06
2023-12-31T20:39:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g8moSO3iOaiJ6yhHkiCW
Joe Biden is still president at the end of 2023
Inspired by Joe Biden is still president at the end of 2022 https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/joe-biden-is-still-president-at-the
2022-08-31T11:27:45
2024-01-01T07:00:00
2024-01-01T07:41:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JetNCOdTpcm4LzrkJqeY
Will Arsenal win the Premier League this season?
Hopium
2022-08-27T23:37:54
2023-05-21T01:09:13
2023-05-21T01:09:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CswL8fk2ZugBgqqsXjjf
Will Apple show an AR headset (like Apple Glasses) by the end of 2023?
Will Apple publicly showcase an Augmented Reality headset by the end of 2023? Must have transparent optics, a camera passthrough VR/MR device does not count. Jan 9, 12:51am: Will Apple show an AR headset by the end of 2023? → Will Apple show an AR headset (like Apple Glasses) by the end of 2023?
2022-08-27T13:38:12
2023-12-31T21:35:11
2023-12-31T21:35:11
no
MANIFOLD