id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-gFvNB7A1CefMYgvuKz3L | Will an "AI-drawn movie" gross >=$100M before 2024? | Aug 26, 9:43pm: By AI drawn movie I mean something predominately drawn by models like stable diffusion (though they may be edited and compiled into a story etc by humans).
Aug 26, 9:49pm: Must have >100 reviews to resolve early
Aug 27, 12:52pm: Sorry the close date was different from the title, I've corrected the clo... | 2022-08-26T13:27:48 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-16T17:18:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KcPwwixKMsHWdYR9xplh | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Resolves the same as this metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/ | 2022-08-25T21:24:49 | 2023-10-14T05:16:16 | 2023-10-14T05:16:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nQchffan8rcgWGmcCORq | Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court? | Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?
It must hold up as written and without major amendment of entitlement. Minor rule changes, such as being able to opt-out of receiving forgiveness does not materially affect the quantity of loan forgiveness, whereas creating stricter or looser means-testing does.
| 2022-08-25T10:38:19 | 2023-03-15T21:59:00 | 2023-06-30T17:11:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FLpVZmIswVyo0tlFcS1S | Will Henry Kissinger outlive Jimmy Carter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-08-24T16:34:06 | 2023-11-29T23:58:18 | 2023-11-29T23:58:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IRSUUxp0OA8oMuQjnflG | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version) | Resolves according to the opinion of populist right-wing news sources like Breitbart, Revolver, ZeroHedge, etc. in case of a disputed result. | 2022-08-24T15:59:35 | 2024-11-30T21:59:00 | 2024-11-30T22:02:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result. | 2022-08-24T15:57:22 | 2024-11-06T14:45:53 | 2024-11-06T14:45:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9cuzSSGtmp3pB3DgxONW | Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc'} | 2022-08-23T15:25:02 | 2024-10-26T14:04:44 | 2024-10-26T14:04:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oyPzvLJhPLwKbfBrmPUL | Will Manchester City win the Premier League? |
Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm | 2022-08-22T14:48:33 | 2023-05-24T10:13:26 | 2023-05-24T10:13:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hFPYQxDvCEz3Q3BxCD2K | Will GPT-4 be able to discern what is visually depicted by a block of ASCII text? | This question resolves to YES if OpenAI's GPT-4 can discern the words visually depicted by the following block of ASCII text:
___ _ _ _
/ _ \___ ___ __| | | |__ ___ | |_
/ /_\/ _ \ / _ \ / _` | | '_ \ / _ \| __|
/ /_\\ (_) | (_) | (_| | | |_) | (_) | |_
\____/\___/ \___/ \__... | 2022-08-21T16:03:29 | 2023-05-13T15:47:37 | 2023-05-13T15:47:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cOEilIxPRDYIiZ4Dii9E | Will GPT-4 be multimodal? | This question resolves to YES if OpenAI's GPT-4 is trained on at least 2 distinct data modalities, such as images and text. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
If GPT-4 is not released before 2024, this question will resolve to N/A.
Clarification: This question will resolve to YES if any single model consistently called "G... | 2022-08-21T15:32:49 | 2023-03-14T12:13:33 | 2023-03-14T12:13:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U0qrVKDIF2z75CXb1j8N | Did the US officially enter a recession in 2022? (Announcement by NBER) | Resolution: Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2022 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred anytime in 2022). Resolves NO otherwise.
Background: The official definition of "recession" in the US is if a committee of economists - t... | 2022-08-20T00:12:09 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:43:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NngAtaaC6rydWXkCbEhS | Will Trump and his associates be charged under Georgia's RICO statute for criminal conspiracy related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state? | Resolves YES if Fani Willis brings RICO charges against Trump and at least two of his associates. Resolves NO if no changes are filed, or if charges filed do not include any under the RICO statute. | 2022-08-19T17:14:10 | 2023-08-14T20:06:24 | 2023-08-14T20:06:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8CahWqnj15GhQRpB5MD | Will Joe Biden throw up on a world leader while President of the United States? | Aug 20, 3:15am: Will Joe Biden throw up on another world leader while President of the United States? → Will Joe Biden throw up on a world leader while President of the United States?
The last US president to throw up on another world leader was George H.W. Bush who did so on the Prime Minister of Japan (https://en.wi... | 2022-08-19T12:55:59 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-25T16:50:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9PlQp8uym4iK5bWf7y74 | By the end of 2023 will Iran successfully enrich enough Uranium to assemble a nuclear warhead? | Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 Iran announces they have enriched enough material to assemble a nuclear warhead. Resolves NO if not.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/8129) | 2022-08-19T07:02:32 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:06:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y6Hq6FxTkwb7LHrIKlwZ | Will the UK prime minister call a snap general election before September 5th 2023? | Will the UK prime minister call a snap general election within a year of taking over from Boris Johnson? This question will be resolved as YES if the UK PM calls for a snap general election before September 5th 2023 (even if the actual election is held after this date). It will be resolved as N/A if there is a general ... | 2022-08-17T15:37:03 | 2023-09-04T15:59:00 | 2023-09-09T14:25:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SMMblDKhRMEc28PBNJ23 | Will Glenn Youngkin run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if Youngkin announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-17T12:04:36 | 2024-01-14T10:15:17 | 2024-01-14T10:15:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SdZJzvfkNfbUnvTKrLGI | Will Liz Cheney run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if Cheney announces and files paperwork that she is running for president in 2024. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-17T07:59:28 | 2024-05-31T20:59:00 | 2024-06-01T09:39:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fu3BBqdXQP1OeUuh7Lds | Will Rudy Giuliani be charged by the DA in Fulton County for his role in efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia? | Resolves YES if Rudy Giuliani is charged in Fulton County, GA for his role in the attempt to overturn the election results in that state. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-16T16:43:40 | 2023-08-14T20:05:38 | 2023-08-14T20:05:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-phAgzglCuHStNgTiyaHA | Will David Petraeus run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if David Petraeus announces and files paperwork that he is running for president in 2024 election. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-16T12:22:22 | 2024-03-23T20:59:00 | 2024-04-07T22:15:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-viQUyNPPREnjNeDtsawn | Will there be a noticeable influenza season in 2022-23? | Despite fears of a "twindemic" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic), the last two influenza seasons have been barely noticeable.
I will resolve this market to yes if the cumulative overall hospitalization rate by MMWR Week Number 17 of 2023 is equal to or larger than 60 per 100,000 population, according to https:... | 2022-08-15T12:07:06 | 2023-03-10T08:58:47 | 2023-03-10T08:58:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-O8qtPVi3e5t6ebMyeQRu | Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang? | Resolves if the images taken by the JWST discover abundant evidence that the Big Bang theory for how the universe started is wrong. Data collected by the telescope in the first few months of operation seems to be indicating exactly that, but it is a controversial issue that will require a lot of astronomers to let go o... | 2022-08-15T06:06:50 | 2024-12-22T20:59:00 | 2024-12-24T10:32:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V1kDArPnPRcTPH6DWyg8 | Will Mark Cuban run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if he announces and files paperwork that he is running for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-15T05:47:51 | 2024-01-18T20:42:12 | 2024-01-18T20:42:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ixDhLuu8EJmC4OQQwRyq | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-being-indicted)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a)(https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-... | 2022-08-12T19:04:54 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:17:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CfYcp3NjOb5GzMAqYErz | Will Donald Trump be charged with violating the Espionage Act? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act by the end of 2023? Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-12T13:11:53 | 2023-06-09T11:26:25 | 2023-06-09T11:26:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jRiRHEZ4VDVhm8ynv51D | Will Donald Trump be eligible to run for president in 2024? | Given the recent unsealing of the FBI warrant on Trump and that he’s being investigated under 18 U.S.C. § 2071, there are two paths to him being disqualified to run for office: Congress votes to bar him from running under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, or the House impeaches him and the Senate convicts, and then vote... | 2022-08-12T12:24:14 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T10:16:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nYKsfGJVSdOJMELnc0df | Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024? | Aug 12, 11:52am: Will Frances X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024? → Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez announces and files paperwork that he is running for the Republican nomination for President of the United S... | 2022-08-12T08:23:51 | 2023-06-15T18:28:34 | 2023-06-15T18:28:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DbXhE65qhBoRF02mpArc | Will OpenAI or DeepMind make a public announcement that they intend to delay some work that would improve AI capabilities due to safety/alignment concerns? | Some believe that it would be desirable for research that makes AI more powerful to advance more slowly, in order that work focused on making machine learning systems safer/more reliable/more predicable/more consistently aligned with human goals, can have time to catch up.
This market will resolve YES if OpenAI or Dee... | 2022-08-11T10:12:37 | 2023-06-30T15:59:00 | 2023-08-25T06:39:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8bFIILiIEvIwyAanEI9F | Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election? | Question resolves to YES if Donald Trump is indicted in any US jurisdiction and then goes on to win the 2024 presidential election. Resolves to NO if he is indicted and does not win. Resolves to N/A if he is not indicted before the election.
Sep 4, 12:14am: clarification (hopefully well in advance) - if for some reas... | 2022-08-11T07:06:46 | 2024-11-04T21:59:00 | 2024-11-06T06:32:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K8ErOYDQmpR2H0LXxbT8 | Will someone successfully turn wood into a significant amount of human-digestible food by 2024? | This market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024 some group credibly reports having successfully converted wood pump (or a similar source of cellulose) into >400,000 calories of food that is demonstrated to be safe for human consumption, at an estimated cost of <$10 million, using a method resembling that described h... | 2022-08-11T04:11:33 | 2023-07-05T03:41:29 | 2023-07-05T03:41:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9OwI2b2MDM9gu3IRn32C | Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-08-11T03:09:56 | 2023-12-31T00:59:00 | 2024-01-06T15:15:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P0AvJfmEY5Yh2PXFchAa | Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023? | PredictIt applied for CFTC approval in 2021 to create a Regulated Exchange / Designated Contract Market, similar to Kalshi, under the name Aristotle Exchange. You can see all the CFTC DCM applications listed here and some documents from their application are public, notably the Rulebook and the Core Principle Complianc... | 2022-08-11T02:21:06 | 2023-07-01T12:39:22 | 2023-07-01T12:39:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oEtZyo4KmzXMhiYdtyUU | Will Donald Trump smile in his mugshot if he is charged for a crime before he dies? | Resolves YES if DJT is clearly smiling in his first official mugshot. Resolves NO if he is decidedly not smiling.
[image] | 2022-08-10T11:19:20 | 2023-08-24T17:50:24 | 2023-08-24T17:50:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oUt0TYlOA4WVofIqvSmH | Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind suffer a significant data breach by the end of 2023? | ADDED: This question is intended to relate to data related to advances in AI. So model weights definitely count, as would other outputs of model training that they didn't want to be public. Theft of non-public training methods would also count, or extraction of non-public data that is used to train cutting-edge models.... | 2022-08-10T05:59:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:32:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jgSSpcZlhdSFpW13F3By | Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023? | Aug 12, 1:17pm: Will NTSB recall more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023? → Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023?
Resolves YES if NTSB issues recall for mo... | 2022-08-10T02:55:25 | 2023-12-13T09:32:11 | 2023-12-13T09:32:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ID8jdb108PeMAACWobDA | Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent? | The UK Health Security Agency is currently reporting that so far 95.3% of cases of monkeypox in the UK have occurred among people who are 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men'.
This market will resolve YES if, by 1 July 2023, the UK Health Security Agency or another UK government agency releases data suggestin... | 2022-08-09T12:16:13 | 2023-06-30T15:59:00 | 2023-07-06T04:09:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jQhWfdxGzUCrlfrcZ8hi | Will the PLA enforce a commercial shipping blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if the PLA implements a commercial shipping blockade as a coercive measure aimed at undermining and weakening the sitting Taiwanese government. Resolves NO if not.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-08-09T07:36:57 | 2023-12-31T20:10:48 | 2023-12-31T20:10:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D9cO8F88XAl7jfs3txO0 | Will there be an assassination attempt on any United States politician by the end of 2023? | Aug 8, 6:01pm: Will Joe Biden get impeached by the end of his first term as POTUS? → Will there be an assassination attempt on any United States politician by the end of 2023?
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-08-08T18:00:17 | 2023-04-10T07:01:58 | 2023-04-10T07:01:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5kisrRCeEVDoepdnWqdh | Will Trump be jailed by January 1st, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-08-08T17:53:48 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:07:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uUpkhDS3LA3zrXrZvF76 | Were any of the COVID-19 vaccines designed to cause infertility, contain microchips, or have any other secret effects? | Resolves Yes if this is reported by Reuters, the BBC, NPR, or the AP, opinion sections excluded, before the end of 2023.
I will not be trading this market due to the potential conflict of interest.
Send this market to your antivax family members! | 2022-08-06T13:54:51 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:16:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-15JX1nrAmdVsiuauUpC4 | Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2023? | Resolves Yes if any US government agency provides an official statement that extraterrestrial intelligent life exists on earth.
Jan 11, 12:39am: Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens before the end of 2023? → Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2023? | 2022-08-06T13:37:33 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:07:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MNg7zIBM98319NFMUuJr | Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023? | Send this to your Qanon family members!
Only national household names and current or former governors or members of congress | 2022-08-06T13:29:57 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:35:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uOKFjN4v9za6wsfcTQ4O | Will Ted Cruz be a candidate for the GOP nomination for President of the United States in 2024? | Resolves YES if Cruz announces and files paperwork that he intends to be a candidate in the GOP primary for President of the United States in the 2024. Resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-06T04:32:18 | 2024-07-26T12:04:37 | 2024-07-26T12:04:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nAuWvKA0ez4faRYVHV5z | Will Joe Biden seek a second term in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-08-05T22:47:50 | 2023-09-08T03:17:19 | 2023-09-08T03:17:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8TFvCa9rydSayaLgvhXe | Will PredictIt still be operating markets *in the US* in March 2023? | Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets in the US on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO.
See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating somewhere in the world: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m
Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements
Notice t... | 2022-08-05T21:02:19 | 2023-03-01T07:10:20 | 2023-03-01T07:10:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CrRQqwCHpI4c6bivM4GO | Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? | [12/10/22 EDIT] It should be possible to access the market legally from within the US.
[9/8/24 EDIT] "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count.
[9/13/24 EDIT] There shouldn't be too much uncertainty about the mar... | 2022-08-04T23:19:32 | 2024-10-11T10:34:20 | 2024-10-11T10:34:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tRVQxcQnH8TbEccDxEGJ | Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Including creating new markets | Background:
https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m)Inspired by this tweet:
[image]Aug 4, 9:13pm: Will PredictIt create any new markets before March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023?
Aug 4, 9:51pm: "Operati... | 2022-08-04T21:05:16 | 2023-03-31T23:59:00 | 2023-04-01T04:15:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oAmXbNgZbit6EZnumqGm | Will PredictIt still be operating markets in March 2023? | Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO.
This will resolve YES even if trading is limited based on country - e.g. if PredictIt is operating in non-US countries, that counts as YES.
See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating in the US: https://manifold.ma... | 2022-08-04T15:40:39 | 2023-03-01T07:10:12 | 2023-03-01T07:10:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EAbVloPwhf2q8F5X5Dsa | Will the 2024 US presidential election be decided in the House of Representatives? | If nobody wins 270 electoral votes the election is decided by the House of Representatives with each state delegation getting one vote. Resolves YES if this is how the 2024 election is decided, resolves NO if not. | 2022-08-04T07:58:18 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T15:07:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VNzUuywR0KQI3Zw5Zmgk | Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes? | Will resolve YES/NO
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/what-percent-of-delegates-will-dona/when-will-donald-trump-announce-his) | 2022-08-03T16:58:29 | 2024-11-15T10:24:26 | 2024-11-15T10:24:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bIg5WUXYxSLHPruaq3zm | Will Zelda be playable in "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom"? | A pre-release gameplay demonstration will suffice for YES.
Sep 14, 11:22am: Will Zelda be playable in the sequel to "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild"? → Will Zelda be playable in "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom"?
Close date updated to 2023-05-12 12:00 am | 2022-08-03T16:57:09 | 2023-05-11T05:00:00 | 2023-07-14T03:39:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eNkeC76eCqIFKAIIdElG | Will hollow knight: silksong be released by June 12, 2023? | According to Wikipedia, silksong's release date is "by June 12 2023". This game seems to be perpetually delayed and I am skeptical. | 2022-08-03T15:38:19 | 2023-06-13T01:12:09 | 2023-06-13T01:12:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J47cj9bJ0vhdNlt5Gx8m | Will Merrick Garland pursue charges against Trump? | Resolves Yes if Merrick Garland charges Donald Trump with a crime in his role as Attorney General (or in any other office Garland might hold) before election day 2024. Note that if Garland is removed and the subsequent AG charges Trump, this does not count. Garland did not rule out such a prosecution in a [recent inter... | 2022-08-02T20:22:55 | 2023-06-09T22:18:03 | 2023-06-09T22:18:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Jc5clGJAfDi93UEIN1z | Will the real median Austin TX house price decline by 30% in the next two years? | Aug 2, 9:30pm: Will the real median house price decline by 30% in the next two years? → Will the real median Austin TX house price decline by 30% in the next two years?
Aug 3, 9:38am: According to https://www.abor.com/news-center/market-stats, the median sale price of Austin houses in June 2022 was $527,475. Real pric... | 2022-08-02T19:51:31 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-02T09:37:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KpNl2V4d9l0JvDQylawm | Will Taiwan hold a referendum on declaring independence from the mainland by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if Taiwan holds a formal referendum to decide on the question of independence from the mainland. Resolves NO if no such vote takes place.
If a vote is scheduled but doesn’t take place by the end of 2024 this resolves NO. | 2022-08-02T10:26:42 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:39:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NaImG9Oa8ADTrBHD45uY | Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Democratic party primary season? | Resolves to YES if the first primary contest of the 2024 Democratic party presidential primary (yes, including caucuses in this definition) is in Iowa. Resolves to NO otherwise. In the event more than 1 contest is held on the same day and one of them is Iowa, resolves 50% PROB.
Sister market: https://manifold.markets/... | 2022-08-01T04:54:06 | 2024-02-01T15:33:58 | 2024-02-01T15:33:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jd8WGCELZhGinYOo8FWn | Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025? | Other than the current polio and COVID-19 PHEICs. | 2022-07-29T02:05:19 | 2024-08-14T18:13:47 | 2024-08-14T18:13:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCFjmTnlpiAGBbWjYQjF | Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race? | Inspired by Nate Silver's tweet:
[image]
Resolution Criteria
Any one of the following of what Nate counts as impact:
[image]Jul 28, 5:32pm: [Austin] Description formatting | 2022-07-28T13:53:44 | 2024-11-14T11:52:07 | 2024-11-14T11:52:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-88LBh72pXt7O55a6GeWb | Will there be a new SARS-COV2 variant by mid-2023 against which 3 doses of Pfizer's BNT162b2 barely reduces death rates? | The market will resolve YES if, by 30 June 2023, there is a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that:
1. Is estimated to have caused >1 million cases globally.
2. The WHO does not classify as a sub-type of an existing variant (e.g. Omicron).
3. Our best estimate is that a 3-shot regimen of Pfizer's 2020 mRNA vaccine is <10% as... | 2022-07-28T06:34:58 | 2023-06-30T15:59:00 | 2023-07-04T04:14:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-naM5XofeEJOgT1QKlsWg | Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2023? | A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.
#technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun | 2022-07-27T12:31:52 | 2024-01-01T08:41:48 | 2024-01-01T08:41:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3TLdte1NLCCgSiqArHA | Will Elizabeth Warren run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if Warren formally announces she is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if she does not run. | 2022-07-27T07:06:09 | 2024-07-16T19:37:36 | 2024-07-16T19:37:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ci0Zuj3QbgXRPmZ8NBjH | Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | Resolves the same as https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a except ending in 2023
Jul 27, 2:35am: to clarify, including in 2022
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/condi... | 2022-07-26T23:18:59 | 2023-03-30T18:40:33 | 2023-03-30T18:40:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uFm9IkuNGF3Fjqn8cwzo | Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if Newsom formally announces he is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if he does not run. | 2022-07-26T13:13:11 | 2024-07-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-25T10:39:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jVSqfR0HWVaqjhKbQ01V | Will Brian Armstrong be replaced as CEO of Coinbase within one year? | This question resolves to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong is replaced as Coinbase CEO by 07/26/2023 | 2022-07-26T09:00:41 | 2023-07-26T20:59:00 | 2023-07-27T00:10:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960 | Market resolves to yes if the winner of the next presidential election was born pre 1960 | 2022-07-25T09:43:55 | 2024-11-14T22:32:01 | 2024-11-14T22:32:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5EwP8yy82jKdVcc9vE36 | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be the 2023 World Chess Champion? | Resolves YES if Nepo wins, NO if Ding Liren wins.
(Resolves N/A if for whatever reason the championship is not between Nepomniachtchi and Ding)
Close date updated to 2023-05-01 11:59 pm | 2022-07-23T20:16:00 | 2023-04-30T15:18:20 | 2023-04-30T15:18:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dz4osbC0I4rKX1NMTlJY | Will Biden's VP assume the role of Acting President under the 25th Amendment for 24 consecutive hours during his current term? | Will the powers of the US President be temporarily transferred from Biden to his VP (currently Kamala Harris, but in case his VP changes then whoever his then-current VP is), via 25th amendment section 3 (Biden choosing to transfer power) or section 4 (VP and Cabinet choosing to transfer power), for a duration of at le... | 2022-07-21T16:57:43 | 2025-01-20T16:26:41 | 2025-01-20T16:26:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UEpBvt6HPGEA4qTY5sTE | Will Biden complete his term? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-07-21T11:24:45 | 2025-01-20T11:50:26 | 2025-01-20T11:50:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L4BEgIXy9RyWoKIcwmuO | Will Trump be running for president in 2024 as something other than the republican candidate? | Will Trump be running as the democratic nominee, an independent candidate, or a third-party candidate in the 2024 elections? | 2022-07-20T11:53:06 | 2024-07-28T18:19:26 | 2024-07-28T18:19:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jBL0zNfJVnhatXxxCxVb | If Donald Trump is charged with a crime in any jurisdiction will his supporters respond by engaging in political violence? | Resolves based on the reaction during the month following the date the first (if any) charges against Trump are announced.
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-07-18T16:13:11 | 2023-04-30T12:50:42 | 2023-04-30T12:50:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uCBB4AWMJD18DoRdIIbo | Will Metaculus or a related organization set up a regular Turing test contest before the end of 2023? | Recently, I [wrote a question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/when-will-ai-pass-a-difficult-turing-test/) about when a difficult Turing test will first be passed by some AI. In the comments, I proposed setting up a yearly Turing test contest in order to ground the question in something concrete ... | 2022-07-17T15:29:51 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-15T09:35:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Or047YyFMUOflKn6C4kn | During the 2023 German winter, will there be at least 5 deaths caused by low temperatures due to energy shortages? | Due to poor energy policy and the Russian-Ukraine war, there has been speculation about energy shortages in Europe, including Germany, that would cause them to not have enough energy to warm their houses during the winter.
This market will solve to yes if there are news on important Western news outlets (WSJ, FT, DW,... | 2022-07-14T13:03:32 | 2023-03-22T19:59:00 | 2023-03-28T10:05:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yb9i4Z24QdbwsiXrHwjO | Will there be war between USA and China by end of 2023? | Resolves YES if between market open and market close China and USA have been or current are de facto at war, as in people shooting stuff at each other in military conflict. As of time of writing, I consider Ukraine and Russia to be "de facto at war". | 2022-07-13T09:03:52 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:09:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1kBRL3QjzEKEyTe8uoLN | Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024? | From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: "Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q ... | 2022-07-10T17:24:25 | 2023-12-31T02:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:19:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M5pVX9b5KSWajxRG7NcL | Will Jon Stewart run for president in 2024? | Resolves yes if Jon Stewart runs for president, no if he doesn’t. | 2022-07-09T08:36:39 | 2024-01-16T15:59:00 | 2024-01-16T23:19:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7nvxnscoldMIN6GMzE2F | Will the 2024 US presidential election be stolen from the rightful victor? | This question resolves to YES if the 2024 United States presidential election is stolen from the rightful victor, and NO otherwise. For the purpose of this question, a US presidential election is said to be stolen if the presidential ticket that clearly received a sufficient number of legal votes to secure themselves a... | 2022-07-09T01:01:59 | 2025-01-20T09:00:00 | 2025-01-21T14:34:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8yrXjPx3RYtq84AxuJOG | Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Yes if a US state legislature votes to give the electoral votes to a candidate who was not the generally recognised popular vote winner in the state or refuses to give the electoral votes at all. | 2022-07-06T02:23:51 | 2024-12-26T22:21:49 | 2024-12-26T22:21:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zwU2m3eYNKuoFxi43hLx | Will Microsoft complete the Activision Blizzard acquisition no longer than Dec 31st 2023? | This question will settle YES if Microsoft buys Activision Blizzard.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-microsoft-seriously-attempt-to) | 2022-07-05T15:58:24 | 2023-10-13T21:20:18 | 2023-10-13T21:20:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SdNDkcenM6YAmhLhKXcH | Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips by 2024? | Will resolve based on public announcements of volume production.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm | 2022-07-04T14:29:04 | 2024-01-01T21:59:00 | 2024-01-02T06:13:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w6pr0WRsU5ipf57R6KTX | Will a gene editing therapy receive approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023? | This question resolves to "Yes" if any (DNA) gene editing (including but not limited to CRISPR-based, prime editing, base editing) therapy receives (full) approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023. The idea for this question was sparked by this article (https://www.fastcompany.com/90762983/gene-editing-drugs-... | 2022-07-02T07:13:44 | 2023-11-16T04:42:32 | 2023-11-16T04:42:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dYPk10oxA9e02IFKp887 | Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10702/us-recession-before-2023/ | 2022-06-29T18:54:39 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-26T06:15:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ATetGsOnbNH5yfbfXoKe | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/10541/)
| 2022-06-29T18:53:21 | 2023-09-14T13:53:46 | 2023-09-14T13:53:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Mbxuu6YkcvC2NmvUcBJ | Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee? | 2022-06-28T15:06:29 | 2024-01-22T12:10:41 | 2024-01-22T12:10:41 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-WCASW3SrldcUsWosgOQu | Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2025? | Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory. Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects.
In January, Honduras kicked ou... | 2022-06-28T13:51:05 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:53:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J2hNi76Y3D38jIc1sY72 | Will Scotland have another referendum on independence by the end of 2023? | Background: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/scotland-plans-referendum-on-independence-in-october-next-year | 2022-06-28T09:01:25 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:06:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EVzuJOB4Juna6YlZnIGY | Will Apple announce an AR/MR headset by the end of 2023? | This question will resolve to “true” if Apple announces, through press conference or other means, a head-mounted display (or computing device with a display) that either contains transparent lenses letting you see the outside world alongside digital objects, or a blocked-light (VR-like) display that lets you see the ou... | 2022-06-27T15:18:50 | 2023-06-05T12:41:19 | 2023-06-05T12:41:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LjWtBRTtPXpJc476kjoG | Will Macron dissolve the Assemblée nationale by the end of 2023? | This question resolves as YES if Macron announces a dissolution of the Assemblée nationale. | 2022-06-20T06:57:27 | 2023-12-31T18:08:16 | 2023-12-31T18:08:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m4PZ1ChlcfgGeXShoxYz | Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k? | Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window below $10k or above $100k
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le) | 2022-06-17T09:50:41 | 2024-12-05T18:36:05 | 2024-12-05T18:36:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ElvB82t53JTmFkvGUck3 | Will crude oil close over 111$ on June 24th, 2023? | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF | 2022-06-17T09:01:34 | 2023-06-24T20:59:00 | 2023-06-25T05:21:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ecnKAZpHQtIvpOJHfxJK | Will there be a Scottish independence referendum by 2024? | 2022-06-17T03:08:28 | 2023-12-31T04:00:00 | 2023-12-31T17:39:31 | no | MANIFOLD | |
mani-CrD4PISBN1H99VrHcknZ | Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | 2022-06-16T22:11:30 | 2024-11-07T19:34:57 | 2024-11-07T19:34:57 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-2N12olMC9YgSRj7M4JBE | Will the next edition of games in season 2 of Squid Game take place in a different country? | In season one of "Squid Game", it is mentioned that other versions of the games exist in other countries. If in season two either the game is played in another country or other countries' versions of the game are shown on screen, this market will resolve to "Yes". | 2022-06-15T12:27:21 | 2024-12-26T11:13:20 | 2024-12-26T11:13:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V | Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term? | If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe... | 2022-06-15T12:13:18 | 2025-01-20T04:47:15 | 2025-01-20T04:47:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wHLYce3PhbCFvPnNSQox | Will Apple announce the launch of a car by the end of 2023? | Some reports from 2020 mention the intention of technology company Apple of producing a car with advanced battery technology by 2024, including rumors of a partnership with Hyundai. Apple CEO Tim Cook has voiced publicly to be developing projects of autonomous systems in the past few years and the company has been test... | 2022-06-13T17:33:05 | 2023-12-31T20:44:20 | 2023-12-31T20:44:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xrJ3DYQMgpxvDguXGI2u | Will the Starship orbital test flight be successful? | This resolves to YES if the [planned orbital test flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_orbital_test_flight) for Starship happens and the spacecraft indeed lands in the Pacific ocean near Kauai. For the purposes of this question, the landing doesn't have to be propulsive, but it does have to hit the oce... | 2022-06-12T09:03:20 | 2023-04-20T06:40:23 | 2023-04-20T06:40:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7DmMDRYV47OK9oiwaSkr | Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024? | 2022-06-08T05:41:09 | 2023-06-05T14:52:50 | 2023-06-05T14:52:50 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-yADu57q7ADe75eRaycZo | Will Apple find a way to not use USB C in their phones post autumn 2024 | This question resolves to "YES" if phones sold by Apple in the EU in Autumn 2024, do not feature a USB C port following a new law:
https://www.engadget.com/eu-reaches-deal-to-make-usb-c-a-common-charger-for-most-electronic-devices-104605067.html
This could be by only having wireless charging for example | 2022-06-07T18:14:44 | 2024-09-14T16:00:00 | 2024-09-14T20:42:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7jypBSOdU6Mw4hhwu8sU | Will Ron DeSantis run for President in 2024? | 2022-06-06T18:45:39 | 2023-05-24T18:36:13 | 2023-05-24T18:36:13 | yes | MANIFOLD | |
mani-MSMOQNzERuSxf35PtoFZ | Will Joe Manchin run for Senate next cycle? | Resolves NO if Manchin announces retirement, misses the filing deadline, or makes some other obvious indicator of not running.
Resolves YES if he enters the primary for his next eligible term | 2022-06-06T17:24:00 | 2024-06-25T21:02:24 | 2024-06-25T21:02:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tx9a1HiZ66t1WLiNuCul | If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote? | This question resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has not won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "INVALID" if Donald Trump is not ... | 2022-06-06T13:12:02 | 2024-11-06T09:13:24 | 2024-11-06T09:13:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N0dixxyO0MDx3MeJmyU3 | Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025? | This question will resolve as positive if the Wikipedia article for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine will describe the original areas of the Republic of Ukraine (as of before Russian agression) to be under the de facto control of the Ukrainian government, otherwise it will resolve as negative. | 2022-06-06T12:44:38 | 2024-12-31T15:00:00 | 2024-12-31T16:34:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
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