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mani-gFvNB7A1CefMYgvuKz3L
Will an "AI-drawn movie" gross >=$100M before 2024?
Aug 26, 9:43pm: By AI drawn movie I mean something predominately drawn by models like stable diffusion (though they may be edited and compiled into a story etc by humans). Aug 26, 9:49pm: Must have >100 reviews to resolve early Aug 27, 12:52pm: Sorry the close date was different from the title, I've corrected the close date. My bad
2022-08-26T13:27:48
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-16T17:18:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KcPwwixKMsHWdYR9xplh
Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?
Resolves the same as this metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/
2022-08-25T21:24:49
2023-10-14T05:16:16
2023-10-14T05:16:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nQchffan8rcgWGmcCORq
Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?
Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court? It must hold up as written and without major amendment of entitlement. Minor rule changes, such as being able to opt-out of receiving forgiveness does not materially affect the quantity of loan forgiveness, whereas creating stricter or looser means-testing does.
2022-08-25T10:38:19
2023-03-15T21:59:00
2023-06-30T17:11:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FLpVZmIswVyo0tlFcS1S
Will Henry Kissinger outlive Jimmy Carter?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-08-24T16:34:06
2023-11-29T23:58:18
2023-11-29T23:58:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IRSUUxp0OA8oMuQjnflG
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version)
Resolves according to the opinion of populist right-wing news sources like Breitbart, Revolver, ZeroHedge, etc. in case of a disputed result.
2022-08-24T15:59:35
2024-11-30T21:59:00
2024-11-30T22:02:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolves according to the opinion of mainstream liberal news sources like NYT, WaPo, Atlantic, etc. in case of a disputed result.
2022-08-24T15:57:22
2024-11-06T14:45:53
2024-11-06T14:45:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9cuzSSGtmp3pB3DgxONW
Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc'}
2022-08-23T15:25:02
2024-10-26T14:04:44
2024-10-26T14:04:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oyPzvLJhPLwKbfBrmPUL
Will Manchester City win the Premier League?
Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm
2022-08-22T14:48:33
2023-05-24T10:13:26
2023-05-24T10:13:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hFPYQxDvCEz3Q3BxCD2K
Will GPT-4 be able to discern what is visually depicted by a block of ASCII text?
This question resolves to YES if OpenAI's GPT-4 can discern the words visually depicted by the following block of ASCII text: ___ _ _ _ / _ \___ ___ __| | | |__ ___ | |_ / /_\/ _ \ / _ \ / _` | | '_ \ / _ \| __| / /_\\ (_) | (_) | (_| | | |_) | (_) | |_ \____/\___/ \___/ \__,_| |_.__/ \___/ \__| Participants are allowed to test GPT-4 with various prompts on this block of text. If no one is able to get GPT-4 to discern what is being depicted in the above text block within a month of GPT-4's release, then this question will resolve to NO. GPT-4's response does not need to get the capitalization of the letters correct. Cheating will not be allowed, and each participant must specify what prompt and settings they used to get GPT-4 to output what it did. Here's a link to the plain text ASCII text block: https://pastebin.com/raw/MvuTCpmY If GPT-4 is not released before 2024, this question will resolve to N/A.
2022-08-21T16:03:29
2023-05-13T15:47:37
2023-05-13T15:47:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cOEilIxPRDYIiZ4Dii9E
Will GPT-4 be multimodal?
This question resolves to YES if OpenAI's GPT-4 is trained on at least 2 distinct data modalities, such as images and text. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. If GPT-4 is not released before 2024, this question will resolve to N/A. Clarification: This question will resolve to YES if any single model consistently called "GPT-4" by the OpenAI staff is multi-modal. For example, if there are two single-modality models: one trained only on images, and one trained only on text, that will not count. Clarification 2: This question will resolve on the basis of all of the models that are revealed to have GPT-4 in their name within 24 hours of the first official announcement from OpenAI of GPT-4.
2022-08-21T15:32:49
2023-03-14T12:13:33
2023-03-14T12:13:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U0qrVKDIF2z75CXb1j8N
Did the US officially enter a recession in 2022? (Announcement by NBER)
Resolution: Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2022 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred anytime in 2022). Resolves NO otherwise. Background: The official definition of "recession" in the US is if a committee of economists - the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - determines it is a recession, defined as "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months". NBER determines whether recessions occurred and their dates retrospectively: "We wait until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions." So official recession determinations are typically made long after the recession actually occurred because it takes time for the data analysis. For example, the April 2020 recession was announced in July 2021. See https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements for historical data on NBER's previous determinations. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession: two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession. In the United States, a recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-next-revised-estimate-of-r)
2022-08-20T00:12:09
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T11:43:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NngAtaaC6rydWXkCbEhS
Will Trump and his associates be charged under Georgia's RICO statute for criminal conspiracy related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state?
Resolves YES if Fani Willis brings RICO charges against Trump and at least two of his associates. Resolves NO if no changes are filed, or if charges filed do not include any under the RICO statute.
2022-08-19T17:14:10
2023-08-14T20:06:24
2023-08-14T20:06:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-s8CahWqnj15GhQRpB5MD
Will Joe Biden throw up on a world leader while President of the United States?
Aug 20, 3:15am: Will Joe Biden throw up on another world leader while President of the United States? → Will Joe Biden throw up on a world leader while President of the United States? The last US president to throw up on another world leader was George H.W. Bush who did so on the Prime Minister of Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush_vomiting_incident) in January 1992. Will Joe Biden throw up on his counterpart from another country before his current term ends? Resolves YES if it happens. Resolves NO if not. Aug 19, 3:57pm: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/B_KVL-wtpgg) Close date updated to 2025-01-20 11:59 pm
2022-08-19T12:55:59
2025-01-20T20:59:00
2025-01-25T16:50:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9PlQp8uym4iK5bWf7y74
By the end of 2023 will Iran successfully enrich enough Uranium to assemble a nuclear warhead?
Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 Iran announces they have enriched enough material to assemble a nuclear warhead. Resolves NO if not. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/8129)
2022-08-19T07:02:32
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:06:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y6Hq6FxTkwb7LHrIKlwZ
Will the UK prime minister call a snap general election before September 5th 2023?
Will the UK prime minister call a snap general election within a year of taking over from Boris Johnson? This question will be resolved as YES if the UK PM calls for a snap general election before September 5th 2023 (even if the actual election is held after this date). It will be resolved as N/A if there is a general election called for any other reason, e.g. the government loses a confidence vote. Update: did not anticipate Truss resigning 5 weeks in lol. I'm going to continue this market, removing the word 'next' as the spirit of the question is will the Tories at large call a general election or try to carry on despite questions of legitimacy. Oct 20, 2:10pm: Will the next UK prime minister call a snap general election before September 5th 2023? → Will the UK prime minister call a snap general election before September 5th 2023?
2022-08-17T15:37:03
2023-09-04T15:59:00
2023-09-09T14:25:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SMMblDKhRMEc28PBNJ23
Will Glenn Youngkin run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if Youngkin announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-17T12:04:36
2024-01-14T10:15:17
2024-01-14T10:15:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SdZJzvfkNfbUnvTKrLGI
Will Liz Cheney run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if Cheney announces and files paperwork that she is running for president in 2024. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-17T07:59:28
2024-05-31T20:59:00
2024-06-01T09:39:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Fu3BBqdXQP1OeUuh7Lds
Will Rudy Giuliani be charged by the DA in Fulton County for his role in efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia?
Resolves YES if Rudy Giuliani is charged in Fulton County, GA for his role in the attempt to overturn the election results in that state. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-16T16:43:40
2023-08-14T20:05:38
2023-08-14T20:05:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-phAgzglCuHStNgTiyaHA
Will David Petraeus run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if David Petraeus announces and files paperwork that he is running for president in 2024 election. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-16T12:22:22
2024-03-23T20:59:00
2024-04-07T22:15:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-viQUyNPPREnjNeDtsawn
Will there be a noticeable influenza season in 2022-23?
Despite fears of a "twindemic" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic), the last two influenza seasons have been barely noticeable. I will resolve this market to yes if the cumulative overall hospitalization rate by MMWR Week Number 17 of 2023 is equal to or larger than 60 per 100,000 population, according to https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html
2022-08-15T12:07:06
2023-03-10T08:58:47
2023-03-10T08:58:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-O8qtPVi3e5t6ebMyeQRu
Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang?
Resolves if the images taken by the JWST discover abundant evidence that the Big Bang theory for how the universe started is wrong. Data collected by the telescope in the first few months of operation seems to be indicating exactly that, but it is a controversial issue that will require a lot of astronomers to let go of their biases and embrace a new paradigm. For a summary of the data JWST has already produced that directly undermine the Big Bang see [this article by Eric Lerner](https://iai.tv/articles/the-big-bang-didnt-happen-auid-2215). Aug 15, 1:55pm:
2022-08-15T06:06:50
2024-12-22T20:59:00
2024-12-24T10:32:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-V1kDArPnPRcTPH6DWyg8
Will Mark Cuban run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if he announces and files paperwork that he is running for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-15T05:47:51
2024-01-18T20:42:12
2024-01-18T20:42:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ixDhLuu8EJmC4OQQwRyq
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
For clarity, this will resolve several weeks into the new year, just in case Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-being-indicted)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a)(https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-bd5ee56971ea)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-being-convicte)
2022-08-12T19:04:54
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T00:17:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CfYcp3NjOb5GzMAqYErz
Will Donald Trump be charged with violating the Espionage Act?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act by the end of 2023? Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-12T13:11:53
2023-06-09T11:26:25
2023-06-09T11:26:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jRiRHEZ4VDVhm8ynv51D
Will Donald Trump be eligible to run for president in 2024?
Given the recent unsealing of the FBI warrant on Trump and that he’s being investigated under 18 U.S.C. § 2071, there are two paths to him being disqualified to run for office: Congress votes to bar him from running under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, or the House impeaches him and the Senate convicts, and then votes to bar him from running again as per Section 3 of Article 1 of the US Constitution. , or he is found guilty under section 2071 (I am not a lawyer so I may be missing some other path). Resolves to YES if Trump is legally eligible to run for president in 2024 (irrespective of if he does run), NO if he can't run.
2022-08-12T12:24:14
2024-11-05T20:59:00
2024-11-07T10:16:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nYKsfGJVSdOJMELnc0df
Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024?
Aug 12, 11:52am: Will Frances X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024? → Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024? Resolves YES if Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez announces and files paperwork that he is running for the Republican nomination for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not. Aug 12, 11:52am:
2022-08-12T08:23:51
2023-06-15T18:28:34
2023-06-15T18:28:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DbXhE65qhBoRF02mpArc
Will OpenAI or DeepMind make a public announcement that they intend to delay some work that would improve AI capabilities due to safety/alignment concerns?
Some believe that it would be desirable for research that makes AI more powerful to advance more slowly, in order that work focused on making machine learning systems safer/more reliable/more predicable/more consistently aligned with human goals, can have time to catch up. This market will resolve YES if OpenAI or DeepMind publicly says that with this general issue in mind they do intend to slow down or delay some of their AI research, before the end of June 2023. See some discussion of this issue here.
2022-08-11T10:12:37
2023-06-30T15:59:00
2023-08-25T06:39:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8bFIILiIEvIwyAanEI9F
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
Question resolves to YES if Donald Trump is indicted in any US jurisdiction and then goes on to win the 2024 presidential election. Resolves to NO if he is indicted and does not win. Resolves to N/A if he is not indicted before the election. Sep 4, 12:14am: clarification (hopefully well in advance) - if for some reason he was secretly indicted (aka it was sealed and not leaked before election day), that would still count for N/A resolution. This market is about the political effect of an indictment, so an indictment no one knows about until after the election doesn't meet the conditional. Oct 2, 9:11am: Sister market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MattP/conditional-on-donald-trump-not-bei)Oct 2, 9:14am: one last clarification - I'm only counting criminal indictments. I've seen some people refer to civil cases such as Tish James' as "indictments" - I don't know if that's correct in some technical sense (I don't think it is) but to be very clear, I am not counting it.
2022-08-11T07:06:46
2024-11-04T21:59:00
2024-11-06T06:32:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-K8ErOYDQmpR2H0LXxbT8
Will someone successfully turn wood into a significant amount of human-digestible food by 2024?
This market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024 some group credibly reports having successfully converted wood pump (or a similar source of cellulose) into >400,000 calories of food that is demonstrated to be safe for human consumption, at an estimated cost of <$10 million, using a method resembling that described here: > "Producing sugar from lignocellulosic biomass is a promising resilient food solution to counter the near-total global failure of food production due to the agricultural collapse that would likely follow an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe such as a nuclear winter, a supervolcanic eruption, or a large asteroid or comet impact. > This study examines how quickly edible sugar production could be ramped up globally by repurposing pulp and paper mills, sugarcane biorefineries, corn biorefineries, and breweries for lignocellulosic sugar production..." Keep reading. Also see discussion in these interviews: David Denkenberger on using paper mills and seaweed to feed everyone in a catastrophe, ft Sahil Shah We could feed all eight billion people through a nuclear winter. Dr David Denkenberger is working to make it practical.
2022-08-11T04:11:33
2023-07-05T03:41:29
2023-07-05T03:41:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9OwI2b2MDM9gu3IRn32C
Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-08-11T03:09:56
2023-12-31T00:59:00
2024-01-06T15:15:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-P0AvJfmEY5Yh2PXFchAa
Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023?
PredictIt applied for CFTC approval in 2021 to create a Regulated Exchange / Designated Contract Market, similar to Kalshi, under the name Aristotle Exchange. You can see all the CFTC DCM applications listed here and some documents from their application are public, notably the Rulebook and the Core Principle Compliance Chart. Also similar to Kalshi, they hired a lawyer who formerly worked at the CFTC, specifically the Chief Counsel, Division of Market Oversight, 1982 - 2003. Will this application, or any future application from PredictIt or Aristotle, be approved before July 2023?
2022-08-11T02:21:06
2023-07-01T12:39:22
2023-07-01T12:39:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oEtZyo4KmzXMhiYdtyUU
Will Donald Trump smile in his mugshot if he is charged for a crime before he dies?
Resolves YES if DJT is clearly smiling in his first official mugshot. Resolves NO if he is decidedly not smiling. [image]
2022-08-10T11:19:20
2023-08-24T17:50:24
2023-08-24T17:50:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oUt0TYlOA4WVofIqvSmH
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind suffer a significant data breach by the end of 2023?
ADDED: This question is intended to relate to data related to advances in AI. So model weights definitely count, as would other outputs of model training that they didn't want to be public. Theft of non-public training methods would also count, or extraction of non-public data that is used to train cutting-edge models. By contrast, emails about other topics, or HR records, or customer details, or customer questions/answers from GPT-4 would not count. ——— This market will resolve YES if, by the end of 2023, it becomes known by any reliable method, that OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind has suffered a significant loss of sensitive or valuable data due to any external breach of their computer networks. You can find some discussion of the security challenges they face here.
2022-08-10T05:59:23
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T06:32:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jgSSpcZlhdSFpW13F3By
Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023?
Aug 12, 1:17pm: Will NTSB recall more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023? → Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023? Resolves YES if NTSB issues recall for more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles due to issues identified with Autopilot software by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40260652/teslas-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation-recall-possible/ Aug 10, 9:29pm: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/yA3f5_YLesk)
2022-08-10T02:55:25
2023-12-13T09:32:11
2023-12-13T09:32:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ID8jdb108PeMAACWobDA
Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent?
The UK Health Security Agency is currently reporting that so far 95.3% of cases of monkeypox in the UK have occurred among people who are 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men'. This market will resolve YES if, by 1 July 2023, the UK Health Security Agency or another UK government agency releases data suggesting that less than 50% of new monkeypox cases in the UK are occurring among the 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men' group.
2022-08-09T12:16:13
2023-06-30T15:59:00
2023-07-06T04:09:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jQhWfdxGzUCrlfrcZ8hi
Will the PLA enforce a commercial shipping blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if the PLA implements a commercial shipping blockade as a coercive measure aimed at undermining and weakening the sitting Taiwanese government. Resolves NO if not. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-08-09T07:36:57
2023-12-31T20:10:48
2023-12-31T20:10:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D9cO8F88XAl7jfs3txO0
Will there be an assassination attempt on any United States politician by the end of 2023?
Aug 8, 6:01pm: Will Joe Biden get impeached by the end of his first term as POTUS? → Will there be an assassination attempt on any United States politician by the end of 2023? Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-08-08T18:00:17
2023-04-10T07:01:58
2023-04-10T07:01:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5kisrRCeEVDoepdnWqdh
Will Trump be jailed by January 1st, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-08-08T17:53:48
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:07:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uUpkhDS3LA3zrXrZvF76
Were any of the COVID-19 vaccines designed to cause infertility, contain microchips, or have any other secret effects?
Resolves Yes if this is reported by Reuters, the BBC, NPR, or the AP, opinion sections excluded, before the end of 2023. I will not be trading this market due to the potential conflict of interest. Send this market to your antivax family members!
2022-08-06T13:54:51
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:16:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-15JX1nrAmdVsiuauUpC4
Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2023?
Resolves Yes if any US government agency provides an official statement that extraterrestrial intelligent life exists on earth. Jan 11, 12:39am: Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens before the end of 2023? → Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2023?
2022-08-06T13:37:33
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:07:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MNg7zIBM98319NFMUuJr
Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?
Send this to your Qanon family members! Only national household names and current or former governors or members of congress
2022-08-06T13:29:57
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:35:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uOKFjN4v9za6wsfcTQ4O
Will Ted Cruz be a candidate for the GOP nomination for President of the United States in 2024?
Resolves YES if Cruz announces and files paperwork that he intends to be a candidate in the GOP primary for President of the United States in the 2024. Resolves NO if not.
2022-08-06T04:32:18
2024-07-26T12:04:37
2024-07-26T12:04:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nAuWvKA0ez4faRYVHV5z
Will Joe Biden seek a second term in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-08-05T22:47:50
2023-09-08T03:17:19
2023-09-08T03:17:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8TFvCa9rydSayaLgvhXe
Will PredictIt still be operating markets *in the US* in March 2023?
Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets in the US on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO. See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating somewhere in the world: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022 The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken action on the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014. Here's what you need to know:    The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action   We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules In light of this decision, we are halting the addition of new markets  No determination has been made on how markets with end dates after Feb. 15 will be settled PredictIt will continue to accept deposits and new signups  PredictIt will continue to honor all withdrawal requests  PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter. We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22 DMO has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it. As stated in the withdrawal letter issued today, to the extent that Victoria University is operating any contract market in a manner consistent with each of the terms and conditions provided in CFTC Letter 14-130, all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023.
2022-08-05T21:02:19
2023-03-01T07:10:20
2023-03-01T07:10:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CrRQqwCHpI4c6bivM4GO
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
[12/10/22 EDIT] It should be possible to access the market legally from within the US. [9/8/24 EDIT] "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count. [9/13/24 EDIT] There shouldn't be too much uncertainty about the market's legality. I'm choosing to operationalize that as "the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)".
2022-08-04T23:19:32
2024-10-11T10:34:20
2024-10-11T10:34:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tRVQxcQnH8TbEccDxEGJ
Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Including creating new markets
Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m)Inspired by this tweet: [image]Aug 4, 9:13pm: Will PredictIt create any new markets before March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Aug 4, 9:51pm: "Operating normally" means that PredictIt is still creating new markets and you can still deposit money and trade those markets in the United States Aug 11, 1:17am: On the latest Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, the PredictIt CEO said it might be possible for them to get CFTC approval for non-election political markets, and also that they applied earlier to the CFTC earlier this year for permission to create a new website that would operate differently from PredictIt. Neither of those meet the criteria of "operating normally", for this market to resolve YES there must be election markets on PredictIt.com Mar 1, 9:02am: Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? → Will PredictIt be operating normally in March 2023? Including creating new markets
2022-08-04T21:05:16
2023-03-31T23:59:00
2023-04-01T04:15:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oAmXbNgZbit6EZnumqGm
Will PredictIt still be operating markets in March 2023?
Resolves YES if PredictIt is still operating markets on March 1, 2023, otherwise NO. This will resolve YES even if trading is limited based on country - e.g. if PredictIt is operating in non-US countries, that counts as YES. See this other market for whether PredictIt is still operating in the US: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-fcf469f35d06 Background: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022 The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken action on the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014. Here's what you need to know:    The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action   We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules In light of this decision, we are halting the addition of new markets  No determination has been made on how markets with end dates after Feb. 15 will be settled PredictIt will continue to accept deposits and new signups  PredictIt will continue to honor all withdrawal requests  PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter. We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22 DMO has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it. As stated in the withdrawal letter issued today, to the extent that Victoria University is operating any contract market in a manner consistent with each of the terms and conditions provided in CFTC Letter 14-130, all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) See also [markets]
2022-08-04T15:40:39
2023-03-01T07:10:12
2023-03-01T07:10:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EAbVloPwhf2q8F5X5Dsa
Will the 2024 US presidential election be decided in the House of Representatives?
If nobody wins 270 electoral votes the election is decided by the House of Representatives with each state delegation getting one vote. Resolves YES if this is how the 2024 election is decided, resolves NO if not.
2022-08-04T07:58:18
2025-01-07T20:59:00
2025-01-09T15:07:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VNzUuywR0KQI3Zw5Zmgk
Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes?
Will resolve YES/NO Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/what-percent-of-delegates-will-dona/when-will-donald-trump-announce-his)
2022-08-03T16:58:29
2024-11-15T10:24:26
2024-11-15T10:24:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bIg5WUXYxSLHPruaq3zm
Will Zelda be playable in "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom"?
A pre-release gameplay demonstration will suffice for YES. Sep 14, 11:22am: Will Zelda be playable in the sequel to "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild"? → Will Zelda be playable in "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom"? Close date updated to 2023-05-12 12:00 am
2022-08-03T16:57:09
2023-05-11T05:00:00
2023-07-14T03:39:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eNkeC76eCqIFKAIIdElG
Will hollow knight: silksong be released by June 12, 2023?
According to Wikipedia, silksong's release date is "by June 12 2023". This game seems to be perpetually delayed and I am skeptical.
2022-08-03T15:38:19
2023-06-13T01:12:09
2023-06-13T01:12:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-J47cj9bJ0vhdNlt5Gx8m
Will Merrick Garland pursue charges against Trump?
Resolves Yes if Merrick Garland charges Donald Trump with a crime in his role as Attorney General (or in any other office Garland might hold) before election day 2024. Note that if Garland is removed and the subsequent AG charges Trump, this does not count. Garland did not rule out such a prosecution in a [recent interview](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/merrick-garland-trump-nbc-interview/index.html).
2022-08-02T20:22:55
2023-06-09T22:18:03
2023-06-09T22:18:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9Jc5clGJAfDi93UEIN1z
Will the real median Austin TX house price decline by 30% in the next two years?
Aug 2, 9:30pm: Will the real median house price decline by 30% in the next two years? → Will the real median Austin TX house price decline by 30% in the next two years? Aug 3, 9:38am: According to https://www.abor.com/news-center/market-stats, the median sale price of Austin houses in June 2022 was $527,475. Real price will be calculated using https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
2022-08-02T19:51:31
2024-08-31T23:59:00
2024-09-02T09:37:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KpNl2V4d9l0JvDQylawm
Will Taiwan hold a referendum on declaring independence from the mainland by the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if Taiwan holds a formal referendum to decide on the question of independence from the mainland. Resolves NO if no such vote takes place. If a vote is scheduled but doesn’t take place by the end of 2024 this resolves NO.
2022-08-02T10:26:42
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T16:39:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NaImG9Oa8ADTrBHD45uY
Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Democratic party primary season?
Resolves to YES if the first primary contest of the 2024 Democratic party presidential primary (yes, including caucuses in this definition) is in Iowa. Resolves to NO otherwise. In the event more than 1 contest is held on the same day and one of them is Iowa, resolves 50% PROB. Sister market: https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held-e1139ccecdc9 EDIT 6/6/23 - I should note that I will consider the caucus being held before other contests (but reported after them) to still count for YES. The date the actual voting (or standing in groups in this case) happens is what is relevant. EDIT 10/9/23 - if the caucuses are divorced from the presidential primary voting (which is not something I had anticipated, lol), they won't count for resolution - only the date that corresponds to "election day" for the presidential primary voting. If it's entirely vote by mail, that'd be the deadline for returning ballots.
2022-08-01T04:54:06
2024-02-01T15:33:58
2024-02-01T15:33:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Jd8WGCELZhGinYOo8FWn
Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
Other than the current polio and COVID-19 PHEICs.
2022-07-29T02:05:19
2024-08-14T18:13:47
2024-08-14T18:13:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zCFjmTnlpiAGBbWjYQjF
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
Inspired by Nate Silver's tweet: [image] Resolution Criteria Any one of the following of what Nate counts as impact: [image]Jul 28, 5:32pm: [Austin] Description formatting
2022-07-28T13:53:44
2024-11-14T11:52:07
2024-11-14T11:52:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-88LBh72pXt7O55a6GeWb
Will there be a new SARS-COV2 variant by mid-2023 against which 3 doses of Pfizer's BNT162b2 barely reduces death rates?
The market will resolve YES if, by 30 June 2023, there is a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that: 1. Is estimated to have caused >1 million cases globally. 2. The WHO does not classify as a sub-type of an existing variant (e.g. Omicron). 3. Our best estimate is that a 3-shot regimen of Pfizer's 2020 mRNA vaccine is <10% as effective at preventing death as it was against the Omicron B.1 strain — an effectiveness currently estimated at around 94%. All 3 conditions will be evaluated by Rob Wiblin using common sense and considering nearby available evidence if necessary (e.g. the effect of Moderna's mRNA vaccine, effect on hospitalization, effect of 4 shots rather than 3, etc). If uncertain, resolution may be briefly delayed while we wait on relevant research. Jul 29, 6:45pm: Will there be a new widespread coronavirus variant by mid-2023 that renders Pfizer's original mRNA vaccine largely useless? → Will there be a new SARS-COV2 variant by mid-2023 against which 3 doses of Pfizer's BNT162b2 barely reduces death rates?
2022-07-28T06:34:58
2023-06-30T15:59:00
2023-07-04T04:14:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-naM5XofeEJOgT1QKlsWg
Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2023?
A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'. #technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun
2022-07-27T12:31:52
2024-01-01T08:41:48
2024-01-01T08:41:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n3TLdte1NLCCgSiqArHA
Will Elizabeth Warren run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if Warren formally announces she is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if she does not run.
2022-07-27T07:06:09
2024-07-16T19:37:36
2024-07-16T19:37:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ci0Zuj3QbgXRPmZ8NBjH
Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
Resolves the same as https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a except ending in 2023 Jul 27, 2:35am: to clarify, including in 2022 (https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-being-indicted)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a-99e01f724b3f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-being-convicte)
2022-07-26T23:18:59
2023-03-30T18:40:33
2023-03-30T18:40:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uFm9IkuNGF3Fjqn8cwzo
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024?
Resolves YES if Newsom formally announces he is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if he does not run.
2022-07-26T13:13:11
2024-07-31T20:59:00
2024-08-25T10:39:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jVSqfR0HWVaqjhKbQ01V
Will Brian Armstrong be replaced as CEO of Coinbase within one year?
This question resolves to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong is replaced as Coinbase CEO by 07/26/2023
2022-07-26T09:00:41
2023-07-26T20:59:00
2023-07-27T00:10:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960
Market resolves to yes if the winner of the next presidential election was born pre 1960
2022-07-25T09:43:55
2024-11-14T22:32:01
2024-11-14T22:32:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5EwP8yy82jKdVcc9vE36
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be the 2023 World Chess Champion?
Resolves YES if Nepo wins, NO if Ding Liren wins. (Resolves N/A if for whatever reason the championship is not between Nepomniachtchi and Ding) Close date updated to 2023-05-01 11:59 pm
2022-07-23T20:16:00
2023-04-30T15:18:20
2023-04-30T15:18:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dz4osbC0I4rKX1NMTlJY
Will Biden's VP assume the role of Acting President under the 25th Amendment for 24 consecutive hours during his current term?
Will the powers of the US President be temporarily transferred from Biden to his VP (currently Kamala Harris, but in case his VP changes then whoever his then-current VP is), via 25th amendment section 3 (Biden choosing to transfer power) or section 4 (VP and Cabinet choosing to transfer power), for a duration of at least 24 consecutive hours, during Biden's current term as President? Biden has previously transferred power "last November for 85 minutes, when Biden was under anesthesia for a routine colonoscopy" (https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/joe-biden-covid-19/index.html) If Biden dies or otherwise leaves office, resolves NO (his successor becomes President, not Acting President).
2022-07-21T16:57:43
2025-01-20T16:26:41
2025-01-20T16:26:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UEpBvt6HPGEA4qTY5sTE
Will Biden complete his term?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-07-21T11:24:45
2025-01-20T11:50:26
2025-01-20T11:50:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-L4BEgIXy9RyWoKIcwmuO
Will Trump be running for president in 2024 as something other than the republican candidate?
Will Trump be running as the democratic nominee, an independent candidate, or a third-party candidate in the 2024 elections?
2022-07-20T11:53:06
2024-07-28T18:19:26
2024-07-28T18:19:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jBL0zNfJVnhatXxxCxVb
If Donald Trump is charged with a crime in any jurisdiction will his supporters respond by engaging in political violence?
Resolves based on the reaction during the month following the date the first (if any) charges against Trump are announced. Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-07-18T16:13:11
2023-04-30T12:50:42
2023-04-30T12:50:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uCBB4AWMJD18DoRdIIbo
Will Metaculus or a related organization set up a regular Turing test contest before the end of 2023?
Recently, I [wrote a question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/when-will-ai-pass-a-difficult-turing-test/) about when a difficult Turing test will first be passed by some AI. In the comments, I proposed setting up a yearly Turing test contest in order to ground the question in something concrete and resolvable. Anthony Aguirre, who co-founded Metaculus, wrote, I'd add that I think Metaculus, or FLI, or someone should set up such a contest regularly Gaia Dempsey, the CEO of Metaculus, replied, I suggest we run it at Metaculus, and have a senior advisor (or two) from FLI on the project. We’ve talked about it before and it keeps coming up and feeling valuable. This question resolves to YES if prior to January 1st 2024, Metaculus or another organization that Anthony Aguirre is officially associated with, has conducted a Turing test trial, with the intent of measuring top AI capabilities over the years. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. Clarification: A "Turing test trial" does not need to be called exactly that. All that needs to be true is that Metaculus hosts a contest with the intent to measure top AI capabilities.
2022-07-17T15:29:51
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-15T09:35:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Or047YyFMUOflKn6C4kn
During the 2023 German winter, will there be at least 5 deaths caused by low temperatures due to energy shortages?
Due to poor energy policy and the Russian-Ukraine war, there has been speculation about energy shortages in Europe, including Germany, that would cause them to not have enough energy to warm their houses during the winter. This market will solve to yes if there are news on important Western news outlets (WSJ, FT, DW, The Economist...) about at least 5 deaths that are attributable to hypothermia or something related due to lack of energy. Other deaths due to energy shortages doesn't count (e.g: a plane crashing due to a blackout). Jul 16, 6:28pm: This news of 595 deaths in British Columbia due to hot temperatures where 99% of the people died inside their homes is an example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-revised-2021-1.6232758
2022-07-14T13:03:32
2023-03-22T19:59:00
2023-03-28T10:05:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yb9i4Z24QdbwsiXrHwjO
Will there be war between USA and China by end of 2023?
Resolves YES if between market open and market close China and USA have been or current are de facto at war, as in people shooting stuff at each other in military conflict. As of time of writing, I consider Ukraine and Russia to be "de facto at war".
2022-07-13T09:03:52
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T01:09:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1kBRL3QjzEKEyTe8uoLN
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024?
From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: "Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q > 1 D-T fusion by 2024, and a 65% chance of Q > 1 D-He3 fusion by 2026." Apr 14, 12:53pm: Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion by 2024? → Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024?
2022-07-10T17:24:25
2023-12-31T02:59:00
2024-01-01T12:19:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M5pVX9b5KSWajxRG7NcL
Will Jon Stewart run for president in 2024?
Resolves yes if Jon Stewart runs for president, no if he doesn’t.
2022-07-09T08:36:39
2024-01-16T15:59:00
2024-01-16T23:19:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7nvxnscoldMIN6GMzE2F
Will the 2024 US presidential election be stolen from the rightful victor?
This question resolves to YES if the 2024 United States presidential election is stolen from the rightful victor, and NO otherwise. For the purpose of this question, a US presidential election is said to be stolen if the presidential ticket that clearly received a sufficient number of legal votes to secure themselves an electoral college majority ends up being denied the presidency by the inauguration date for reasons other than personal choice, illness, or death. I will consider a candidate a "rightful victor" if they would have won a majority in the electoral college if states followed the ordinary rules. A sufficient number of faithless electors to flip the result will also be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. For context, I do not currently consider any prior US presidential election to have been stolen, including the 1800, 1824, 1876, 2000 and 2020 elections (though I could change my mind on this historical question if provided more evidence). Clarification [7/9/2022 12:38 PM]: For the purpose of this question, the "ordinary rules" of assigning electoral votes refers to a clearly defined standard outlined prior to the casting of ballots, which does not allow states to arbitrarily reject their own popular vote. Clarification [8/22/2023 1:14 PM]: Voter fraud in sufficient numbers to change the result of the election can resolve this question positively, but the evidence must be clear and strong. By default, I will be skeptical of claims of fraud, but I will consider the evidence carefully before resolution. I will defer to following sources of evidence in order of priority: (1) a convergence of highly credible witnesses, such as election officials and observers, (2) a wealth of documents or statements revealing an explicit, overt plan to rig the election backed by powerful actors, (3) an analysis from election experts, especially those who are well-regarded for their balanced, or neutral political stances, (4) circumstantial evidence of any kind. Foreign interference in the US election can be used to resolve this question positively if the interference was decisive, and had a direct, material effect on how election workers counted the votes. If, for example, foreign governments flood US social media with propaganda, but do not directly physically interfere with how the votes are counted, then I will not consider the election to be stolen. Foreign interference can also be used to resolve this question positively if foreign agents overtly and physically coerce voters to secure a particular outcome, for example if the United States is invaded and occupied by a foreign power. Voter suppression cannot be used to resolve this question positively, as it is difficult to define precisely. However, voter suppression that takes the form of either widespread voter fraud or large-scale foreign interference may count for positive resolution, as outlined above.
2022-07-09T01:01:59
2025-01-20T09:00:00
2025-01-21T14:34:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8yrXjPx3RYtq84AxuJOG
Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Yes if a US state legislature votes to give the electoral votes to a candidate who was not the generally recognised popular vote winner in the state or refuses to give the electoral votes at all.
2022-07-06T02:23:51
2024-12-26T22:21:49
2024-12-26T22:21:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zwU2m3eYNKuoFxi43hLx
Will Microsoft complete the Activision Blizzard acquisition no longer than Dec 31st 2023?
This question will settle YES if Microsoft buys Activision Blizzard. Related market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-microsoft-seriously-attempt-to)
2022-07-05T15:58:24
2023-10-13T21:20:18
2023-10-13T21:20:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SdNDkcenM6YAmhLhKXcH
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips by 2024?
Will resolve based on public announcements of volume production. Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm
2022-07-04T14:29:04
2024-01-01T21:59:00
2024-01-02T06:13:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w6pr0WRsU5ipf57R6KTX
Will a gene editing therapy receive approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023?
This question resolves to "Yes" if any (DNA) gene editing (including but not limited to CRISPR-based, prime editing, base editing) therapy receives (full) approval in the U.S. or the U.K. by the end of 2023. The idea for this question was sparked by this article (https://www.fastcompany.com/90762983/gene-editing-drugs-are-coming). It will resolve positively if *any* editing therapy receives approval by the end of 2023. However, note that non-editing viral or other gene therapies don't count since there's another question (https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/how-many-approved-therapies-will-th) focused on that.
2022-07-02T07:13:44
2023-11-16T04:42:32
2023-11-16T04:42:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dYPk10oxA9e02IFKp887
Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10702/us-recession-before-2023/
2022-06-29T18:54:39
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-26T06:15:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ATetGsOnbNH5yfbfXoKe
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10541/hunter-biden-be-indicted-before-nov-5-2024/ (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/10541/)
2022-06-29T18:53:21
2023-09-14T13:53:46
2023-09-14T13:53:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6Mbxuu6YkcvC2NmvUcBJ
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?
2022-06-28T15:06:29
2024-01-22T12:10:41
2024-01-22T12:10:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WCASW3SrldcUsWosgOQu
Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2025?
Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory. Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects. In January, Honduras kicked out the right-wing government that passed the ZEDE law and replaced it with a socialist party led by Xiomara Castro, which had made opposition to the ZEDEs part of its platform. In April, the new government repealed the ZEDE law, with uncertain consequences." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722
2022-06-28T13:51:05
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-01T14:53:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-J2hNi76Y3D38jIc1sY72
Will Scotland have another referendum on independence by the end of 2023?
Background: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/scotland-plans-referendum-on-independence-in-october-next-year
2022-06-28T09:01:25
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T13:06:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EVzuJOB4Juna6YlZnIGY
Will Apple announce an AR/MR headset by the end of 2023?
This question will resolve to “true” if Apple announces, through press conference or other means, a head-mounted display (or computing device with a display) that either contains transparent lenses letting you see the outside world alongside digital objects, or a blocked-light (VR-like) display that lets you see the outside word via outward-facing cameras, on or before Dec. 31, 2023.
2022-06-27T15:18:50
2023-06-05T12:41:19
2023-06-05T12:41:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LjWtBRTtPXpJc476kjoG
Will Macron dissolve the Assemblée nationale by the end of 2023?
This question resolves as YES if Macron announces a dissolution of the Assemblée nationale.
2022-06-20T06:57:27
2023-12-31T18:08:16
2023-12-31T18:08:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m4PZ1ChlcfgGeXShoxYz
Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?
Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window below $10k or above $100k Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le)
2022-06-17T09:50:41
2024-12-05T18:36:05
2024-12-05T18:36:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ElvB82t53JTmFkvGUck3
Will crude oil close over 111$ on June 24th, 2023?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF
2022-06-17T09:01:34
2023-06-24T20:59:00
2023-06-25T05:21:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ecnKAZpHQtIvpOJHfxJK
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum by 2024?
2022-06-17T03:08:28
2023-12-31T04:00:00
2023-12-31T17:39:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CrD4PISBN1H99VrHcknZ
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
2022-06-16T22:11:30
2024-11-07T19:34:57
2024-11-07T19:34:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2N12olMC9YgSRj7M4JBE
Will the next edition of games in season 2 of Squid Game take place in a different country?
In season one of "Squid Game", it is mentioned that other versions of the games exist in other countries. If in season two either the game is played in another country or other countries' versions of the game are shown on screen, this market will resolve to "Yes".
2022-06-15T12:27:21
2024-12-26T11:13:20
2024-12-26T11:13:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V
Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?
If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.
2022-06-15T12:13:18
2025-01-20T04:47:15
2025-01-20T04:47:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wHLYce3PhbCFvPnNSQox
Will Apple announce the launch of a car by the end of 2023?
Some reports from 2020 mention the intention of technology company Apple of producing a car with advanced battery technology by 2024, including rumors of a partnership with Hyundai. Apple CEO Tim Cook has voiced publicly to be developing projects of autonomous systems in the past few years and the company has been testing self-driving vehicles since 2017. If by December 31st, 2023, Apple publicly announces it will commercially launch a car of its own manufacturing or design, this market will be resolved as "Yes". It is not necessary for the sake of resolving this market as "Yes" that the car is already available in the market by that date, but only that the official announcement of the launch is made.
2022-06-13T17:33:05
2023-12-31T20:44:20
2023-12-31T20:44:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xrJ3DYQMgpxvDguXGI2u
Will the Starship orbital test flight be successful?
This resolves to YES if the [planned orbital test flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_orbital_test_flight) for Starship happens and the spacecraft indeed lands in the Pacific ocean near Kauai. For the purposes of this question, the landing doesn't have to be propulsive, but it does have to hit the ocean within 100 km of the target location. If the test flight doesn't happen by the end of 2023 this resolves N/A.
2022-06-12T09:03:20
2023-04-20T06:40:23
2023-04-20T06:40:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7DmMDRYV47OK9oiwaSkr
Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024?
2022-06-08T05:41:09
2023-06-05T14:52:50
2023-06-05T14:52:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yADu57q7ADe75eRaycZo
Will Apple find a way to not use USB C in their phones post autumn 2024
This question resolves to "YES" if phones sold by Apple in the EU in Autumn 2024, do not feature a USB C port following a new law: https://www.engadget.com/eu-reaches-deal-to-make-usb-c-a-common-charger-for-most-electronic-devices-104605067.html This could be by only having wireless charging for example
2022-06-07T18:14:44
2024-09-14T16:00:00
2024-09-14T20:42:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7jypBSOdU6Mw4hhwu8sU
Will Ron DeSantis run for President in 2024?
2022-06-06T18:45:39
2023-05-24T18:36:13
2023-05-24T18:36:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MSMOQNzERuSxf35PtoFZ
Will Joe Manchin run for Senate next cycle?
Resolves NO if Manchin announces retirement, misses the filing deadline, or makes some other obvious indicator of not running. Resolves YES if he enters the primary for his next eligible term
2022-06-06T17:24:00
2024-06-25T21:02:24
2024-06-25T21:02:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Tx9a1HiZ66t1WLiNuCul
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
This question resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has won the popular vote. This question resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has not won the popular vote. This question resolves to "INVALID" if Donald Trump is not elected president of the United States in 2024.
2022-06-06T13:12:02
2024-11-06T09:13:24
2024-11-06T09:13:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-N0dixxyO0MDx3MeJmyU3
Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025?
This question will resolve as positive if the Wikipedia article for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine will describe the original areas of the Republic of Ukraine (as of before Russian agression) to be under the de facto control of the Ukrainian government, otherwise it will resolve as negative.
2022-06-06T12:44:38
2024-12-31T15:00:00
2024-12-31T16:34:33
no
MANIFOLD