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And go back to those three cases that I mentioned at the start. | Ce sont des cas classiques de tâches de non routine. | en-fr |
Those are all classic cases of nonroutine tasks. | klassieke gevallen van niet-routinematige taken. | en-nl |
Ask a doctor, for instance, how she makes a medical diagnosis, and she might be able to give you a few rules of thumb, but ultimately she'd struggle. | Zeptejte se lékařky, jak určuje diagnózu. Může vám dát pár základních tipů, ale nakonec by si nevěděla rady. | en-cs |
She'd say it requires things like creativity and judgment and intuition. | Direbbe che servono cose come creatività, giudizio e intuizione. | en-it |
And these things are very difficult to articulate, and so it was thought these tasks would be very hard to automate. | Ce sont des choses difficiles à formuler alors nous pensions que ces tâches seraient difficiles à automatiser. | en-fr |
If a human being can't explain themselves, where on earth do we begin in writing a set of instructions for a machine to follow? | 如果人類無法解釋他們自己的做法， 我們究竟要從何開始寫指令 給機器遵循？ | en-zh-tw |
Thirty years ago, this view was right, but today it's looking shaky, and in the future it's simply going to be wrong. | Před 30 lety byla tato úvaha správná, nyní již nevypadá tak důvěryhodně a v budoucnu bude prostě špatná. | en-cs |
Advances in processing power, in data storage capability and in algorithm design mean that this routine-nonroutine distinction is diminishingly useful. | I progressi nella capacità di calcolo, nello stoccaggio dati e nella scrittura di algoritmi fanno sì che la distinzione routine / non routine sia sempre meno utile. | en-it |
To see this, go back to the case of making a medical diagnosis. | Aby to bylo jasné, vraťme se k příkladu určení lékařské diagnózy. | en-cs |
Earlier in the year, a team of researchers at Stanford announced they'd developed a system which can tell you whether or not a freckle is cancerous as accurately as leading dermatologists. | Mais cedo neste ano, pesquisadores de Stanford anunciaram ter desenvolvido um sistema que pode dizer se uma mancha na pele é cancerosa ou não com tanta precisão quanto um dermatologista experiente. | en-pt-br |
It's not trying to copy the judgment or the intuition of a doctor. | 它並不是嘗試複製 醫生的判斷或是直覺。 | en-zh-tw |
It knows or understands nothing about medicine at all. | إنه لا يعرف أو يعي شيئًا في الطب على الإطلاق. | en-ar |
Instead, it's running a pattern recognition algorithm through 129,450 past cases, hunting for similarities between those cases and the particular lesion in question. | En cambio, ejecuta un algoritmo de reconocimiento de patrones que recorre 129 450 casos previos, y busca similitudes entre esos casos y la lesión específica en cuestión. | en-es |
It's performing these tasks in an unhuman way, based on the analysis of more possible cases than any doctor could hope to review in their lifetime. | यह अपना काम मनुष्यों के जैसे नहीं कर रहा, वह इतने सारे केस का अध्ययन कर रहा है, जो एक डॉक्टर अपने जीवनकाल में नहीं कर सकता. | en-hi |
It didn't matter that that human being, that doctor, couldn't explain how she'd performed the task. | Nó không quan trọng là con người đó, bác sĩ đó, không thể giải thích cô ấy làm như thế nào. | en-vi |
Now, there are those who dwell upon that the fact that these machines aren't built in our image. | Ora, c'è chi insiste sul fatto che queste macchine non sono fatte a nostra immagine. | en-it |
As an example, take IBM's Watson, the supercomputer that went on the US quiz show "Jeopardy!" in 2011, and it beat the two human champions at "Jeopardy!" | برای مثال واتسون، آیبیام را در نظر بگیرید، یک اَبَر کامپیوتر که در سال ۲۰۱۱ در برنامه پرسش و پاسخ آمریکایی جئوپاردی شرکت کرد! و دو تا از افراد قهرمان در جئوپاردی را شکست داد ! | en-fa |
The day after it won, The Wall Street Journal ran a piece by the philosopher John Searle with the title "Watson Doesn't Know It Won on 'Jeopardy!'" Right, and it's brilliant, and it's true. | उसके जीतने के एक दिन पश्चात्, द वॉल स्ट्रीट जर्नल में जॉन सीरले ने लिखा, "वाटसन को नहीं पता कि वह जीता !" ये बहुत बढ़िया है, और अचूक सत्य है. | en-hi |
You know, Watson didn't let out a cry of excitement. | 왓슨은 기쁨의 함성을 지르지 않았습니다. | en-ko |
It didn't call up its parents to say what a good job it had done. | उसने अपने माता पिता को फ़ोन करके अपने अच्छे कार्य की खबर नहीं दी. | en-hi |
It didn't go down to the pub for a drink. | Non è andato al pub a bere una birra. | en-it |
This system wasn't trying to copy the way that those human contestants played, but it didn't matter. | این سیستم تلاشی برای تقلید از روشی که افراد شرکت کننده داشتند نکرد، اما مهم هم نبود. | en-fa |
It still outperformed them. | Stejně nad nimi vyhrál. | en-cs |
Resolving the intelligence myth shows us that our limited understanding about human intelligence, about how we think and reason, is far less of a constraint on automation than it was in the past. | إن حل معضلة الذكاء الاصطناعي أظهر لنا أن فهمنا محدود للذكاء البشري، وأن طريقة تفكيرنا وتحليلنا، لم يعد حجر عثرة أمام الأتمتة كما كان في الماضي. | en-ar |
What's more, as we've seen, when these machines perform tasks differently to human beings, there's no reason to think that what human beings are currently capable of doing represents any sort of summit in what these machines might be capable of doing in the future. | और तो और जब ये मशीने उसी काम को मनुष्य से अलग तरीके से करती हैं, यह सोचना भी गलत होगा, कि मनुष्य की क्षमता, सबसे बेहतरीन है, क्यूँकि ये मशीनें आगे और भी बहुत कुछ करने में सक्षम होंगी. | en-hi |
Now the third myth, what I call the superiority myth. | Le troisième mythe est ce que j’appelle le mythe de la supériorité. | en-fr |
It's often said that those who forget about the helpful side of technological progress, those complementarities from before, are committing something known as the lump of labor fallacy. | Принято считать, что те, кто забывают о пользе технологического прогресса, о комплементарности человека и машины, впадают в заблуждение о неизменном объёме работ. | en-ru |
Now, the problem is the lump of labor fallacy is itself a fallacy, and I call this the lump of labor fallacy fallacy, or LOLFF, for short. | Giờ thì, vấn đề là sai lầm về nguồn nhân lực bản thân nó là sự sai lầm, và tôi gọi nó là sai lầm của sai lầm về nguồn nhân lực, hay ngắn gọn là LOLFF. | en-vi |
The lump of labor fallacy is a very old idea. | श्रम के ढेले का भुलावा एक पुरानी धारणा है. | en-hi |
It was a British economist, David Schloss, who gave it this name in 1892. | Їй дав ім'я британський економіст Девід Шлосс у 1892 році. | en-uk |
He was puzzled to come across a dock worker who had begun to use a machine to make washers, the small metal discs that fasten on the end of screws. | 그는 부두 노동자들에게서 당혹감을 느낀 적이 있습니다. 당시 부두 노동자들은 기계로 와셔를 만들기 시작했는데요. 그건 나사를 단단히 조이도록 해주는 원판 모양의 작은 금속입니다. | en-ko |
And this dock worker felt guilty for being more productive. | 这个码头工人因生产力更高 而怀有负罪感 | en-zh-cn |
Now, most of the time, we expect the opposite, that people feel guilty for being unproductive, you know, a little too much time on Facebook or Twitter at work. | La plupart du temps, on s’attend au contraire, se sentir coupable de ne pas être productif, un peu trop de temps passé sur Facebook ou Twitter au travail. | en-fr |
But this worker felt guilty for being more productive, and asked why, he said, "I know I'm doing wrong. | Pero esta persona sentía culpa por ser más productiva, y lo explicó diciendo: "Sé que estoy haciendo lo incorrecto; | en-es |
I'm taking away the work of another man." | "मैं किसी और का रोजगार छीन रहा हूँ" | en-hi |
In his mind, there was some fixed lump of work to be divided up between him and his pals, so that if he used this machine to do more, there'd be less left for his pals to do. | 在他的認知中，勞動總合是固定的， 要由他和他的伙伴來分攤， 所以如果他用機器多做一點， 他伙伴能做的就變少了。 | en-zh-tw |
Schloss saw the mistake. | Schloss meglátta a hibát. | en-hu |
The lump of work wasn't fixed. | 工作的总量并不是固定的 | en-zh-cn |
As this worker used the machine and became more productive, the price of washers would fall, demand for washers would rise, more washers would have to be made, and there'd be more work for his pals to do. | Když tento dělník použil stroj a zvýšil tak svoji produktivitu, cena podložek klesla, poptávka po nich vzrostla, muselo by se vyrobit více podložek a bylo by tedy více práce pro jeho kolegy. | en-cs |
The lump of work would get bigger. | A munkamennyiség megnő. | en-hu |
Schloss called this "the lump of labor fallacy." | Schloss le llamó a esto "la falacia de la cantidad fija de trabajo". | en-es |
And today you hear people talk about the lump of labor fallacy to think about the future of all types of work. | Actualmente se habla de esta falacia para referirse al futuro de todos los trabajos. | en-es |
There's no fixed lump of work out there to be divided up between people and machines. | 要讓人類與機器瓜分。 是的，機器會取代人類， 讓原本的勞動總合變少， | en-zh-tw |
Yes, machines substitute for human beings, making the original lump of work smaller, but they also complement human beings, and the lump of work gets bigger and changes. | Sí, es cierto que las máquinas sustituyen a los humanos y así disminuye la cantidad de trabajo, pero también los complementan y la cantidad de trabajo aumenta y cambia. | en-es |
But LOLFF. | Pero la falacia de esta falacia entraña un error: | en-es |
Here's the mistake: it's right to think that technological progress makes the lump of work to be done bigger. | Sai lầm chính là đây: Tư duy cho rằng tiến bộ công nghệ khiến việc được hoàn tất nhiều hơn là đúng | en-vi |
Some tasks become more valuable. New tasks have to be done. | Egyes munkák értékesebbé válnak. Új feladatok keletkeznek. | en-hu |
But it's wrong to think that necessarily, human beings will be best placed to perform those tasks. | पर ये सोचना गलत है कि नए कार्य मनुष्यों के लिए होंगे. | en-hi |
And this is the superiority myth. | و این افسانه برتری هست. | en-fa |
Yes, the lump of work might get bigger and change, but as machines become more capable, it's likely that they'll take on the extra lump of work themselves. | Да, объём работ может увеличиться и измениться, но по мере того, как машины становятся умнее, вероятнее всего, они возьмут на себя этот новый объём работы. | en-ru |
Technological progress, rather than complement human beings, complements machines instead. | Tiến bộ công nghệ, thay vì bổ trợ con người, thay vào đó sẽ bổ trợ cho máy móc. | en-vi |
To see this, go back to the task of driving a car. | لرؤية هذا، لنعد إلى مثال قيادة السيارة. | en-ar |
Today, satnav systems directly complement human beings. | Ma a műholdas navigációs rendszerek közvetlenül kiegészítik az embert. | en-hu |
They make some human beings better drivers. | 它讓一些人類變成更好的駕駛。 | en-zh-tw |
But in the future, software is going to displace human beings from the driving seat, and these satnav systems, rather than complement human beings, will simply make these driverless cars more efficient, helping the machines instead. | ولكن في المستقبل، فإن البرامج ستقوم بإبعاد البشر من مقعد القيادة، وأنظمة "سات ناف" هذه بدلًا من أن تكمل الإنسان، ستجعل هذه السيارات بدون سائق اكثر كفاءة، وبهذا تساعد الآلآت بدلًا عن ذلك. | en-ar |
Or go to those indirect complementarities that I mentioned as well. | O vayamos a las complementariedades indirectas que mencioné antes. | en-es |
The economic pie may get larger, but as machines become more capable, it's possible that any new demand will fall on goods that machines, rather than human beings, are best placed to produce. | A tarte económica poderá aumentar, mas com máquinas mais aptas é possível que a nova procura seja de produtos que as máquinas, e não os seres humanos, estejam em melhor posição de produzir. | en-pt |
The economic pie may change, but as machines become more capable, it's possible that they'll be best placed to do the new tasks that have to be done. | केक का स्वरुप बदल जायेगा, लेकिन मशीनों की क्षमता बढ़ने से, वे कई कार्य मनुष्यों से बेहतर ढंग से कर पाएंगी. | en-hi |
In short, demand for tasks isn't demand for human labor. | Nói ngắn gọn, nhu cầu cho những công việc không cần sức lao động con người. | en-vi |
Human beings only stand to benefit if they retain the upper hand in all these complemented tasks, but as machines become more capable, that becomes less likely. | Les humains n’en bénéficieront que s’ils gardent la main sur ces tâches complémentées, mais les machines s’améliorant, cette probabilité diminue. | en-fr |
So what do these three myths tell us then? | Ahora bien, ¿qué nos enseñan estos tres mitos? | en-es |
Well, resolving the Terminator myth shows us that the future of work depends upon this balance between two forces: one, machine substitution that harms workers but also those complementarities that do the opposite. | A terminátor-hiedelem eloszlatása azt mutatja, hogy a munka jövője két erő egyensúlyától függ: a helyettesítő gépektől, melyek ártanak a munkásoknak, de az ellenkező hatást kiváltó komplementaritásoktól is. | en-hu |
And until now, this balance has fallen in favor of human beings. | 直到目前，這平衡是對人類有利的。 | en-zh-tw |
But resolving the intelligence myth shows us that that first force, machine substitution, is gathering strength. | बुद्धिमत्ता मिथक दर्शाता है कि मशीनों का मनुष्यों की जगह लेना सत्य होता जा रहा है. | en-hi |
Machines, of course, can't do everything, but they can do far more, encroaching ever deeper into the realm of tasks performed by human beings. | Звичайно, машини не можуть робити все, вони можуть робити більше, втручаючись усе глибше у сфери завдань, що виконуються людьми. | en-uk |
What's more, there's no reason to think that what human beings are currently capable of represents any sort of finishing line, that machines are going to draw to a polite stop once they're as capable as us. | Továbbá, nincs okunk föltételezni, hogy amire ma az ember képes, a végső határt jelenti, mely előtt a gépek előzékenyen megállnak, ha ugyanarra lesznek képesek, mint mi. | en-hu |
Now, none of this matters so long as those helpful winds of complementarity blow firmly enough, but resolving the superiority myth shows us that that process of task encroachment not only strengthens the force of machine substitution, but it wears down those helpful complementarities too. | 只要机器对我们的互补 依然确实地存在 那么这些担忧都不重要 通过解析优越性迷思 展现出工作侵蚀的过程 这不止加强了机器的替代性 也削弱了那些有益的互补性 | en-zh-cn |
Bring these three myths together and I think we can capture a glimpse of that troubling future. | Pokud tyto mýty spojíme dohromady, myslím, že dokážeme získat představu o znepokojivé budoucnosti. | en-cs |
Machines continue to become more capable, encroaching ever deeper on tasks performed by human beings, strengthening the force of machine substitution, weakening the force of machine complementarity. | Машины становятся более способными, всё глубже вторгаются в профессиональную деятельность человека, обретают бóльшую силу при замещении человека и ослабляют комплементарность. | en-ru |
And at some point, that balance falls in favor of machines rather than human beings. | और कभी न कभी, मशीनें मनुष्यों से बेहतर कार्य कर पाएंगी. | en-hi |
This is the path we're currently on. | Đây là con đường mà ta đang đi. | en-vi |
I say "path" deliberately, because I don't think we're there yet, but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that this is our direction of travel. | Szándékosan mondok utat, mert bár még nem értünk célt, de nehéz elkerülni a következtetést, hogy ez az útirányunk. | en-hu |
That's the troubling part. | यही परेशानी है. | en-hi |
Let me say now why I think actually this is a good problem to have. | E vi dirò perché penso che sia un buon problema. | en-it |
For most of human history, one economic problem has dominated: how to make the economic pie large enough for everyone to live on. | Történelmünk során egyetlen gazdasági kérdés volt előtérben: hogyan növeljük elég naggyá a gazdasági sütit, hogy mindenkinek jusson belőle. | en-hu |
Go back to the turn of the first century AD, and if you took the global economic pie and divided it up into equal slices for everyone in the world, everyone would get a few hundred dollars. | 回到公元1世纪 如果你将世界经济这块蛋糕 等分给世界上每一个人 人均将得到几百美元 | en-zh-cn |
Almost everyone lived on or around the poverty line. | Почти все жили за чертой или около черты бедности. | en-ru |
And if you roll forward a thousand years, roughly the same is true. | En avançant de 1 000 ans, c’est toujours à peu près vrai. | en-fr |
But in the last few hundred years, economic growth has taken off. | اما در این چند صد سال اخیر، رشد اقتصادی شروع شد. | en-fa |
Those economic pies have exploded in size. | और केक का आकार कई गुणा बढ़ा है. | en-hi |
Global GDP per head, the value of those individual slices of the pie today, they're about 10,150 dollars. | Het mondiale bbp per hoofd, de huidige waarde van die persoonlijke stukken taart, is nu ongeveer 10.150 dollar. | en-nl |
If economic growth continues at two percent, our children will be twice as rich as us. | إذا استمر النمو الاقتصادي بمعدل 2 بالمائة، سيصبح أولادنا أكثر ثراءً منا بمرتين. | en-ar |
If it continues at a more measly one percent, our grandchildren will be twice as rich as us. | إذا استمر أقل بقليل من الاثنين بالمائة، سيصبح أحفادنا أكثر ثراءً منا بمرتين. | en-ar |
By and large, we've solved that traditional economic problem. | Nagyjából megoldottuk a hagyományos gazdasági problémát. | en-hu |
Now, technological unemployment, if it does happen, in a strange way will be a symptom of that success, will have solved one problem -- how to make the pie bigger -- but replaced it with another -- how to make sure that everyone gets a slice. | حال، اگر بیکاری فناوری اتفاق بیفتد، به طور عجیبی، نشانهای از موفقیت خواهد بود، یک مشکل حل شده-- چگونه کیک را بزرگتر کنیم- اما دچار مسئله دیگری میشویم-- چگونه مطمئن شویم هر فرد یک برش دریافت میکند. | en-fa |
As other economists have noted, solving this problem won't be easy. | Más közgazdászok megjegyezték: a feladat megoldása nem lesz könnyű. | en-hu |
Today, for most people, their job is their seat at the economic dinner table, and in a world with less work or even without work, it won't be clear how they get their slice. | Зараз для більшості їх робота – це місце за столом економіки. У світі з меншою кількістю робочих місць не зрозуміло, як кожному дати по шматку. | en-uk |
There's a great deal of discussion, for instance, about various forms of universal basic income as one possible approach, and there's trials underway in the United States and in Finland and in Kenya. | Il y a par exemple beaucoup de discussions sur diverses formes de revenu de base universel en tant qu’approche possible et il y a des essais en cours aux États-Unis, en Finlande et au Kenya. | en-fr |
And this is the collective challenge that's right in front of us, to figure out how this material prosperity generated by our economic system can be enjoyed by everyone in a world in which our traditional mechanism for slicing up the pie, the work that people do, withers away and perhaps disappears. | ये सामूहिक चुनौती हम सबके सामने है, कि कैसे हर कोई इस आर्थिक खुशहाली का मजा उठा सके. ऐसी दुनिया में जहाँ की पारंपरिक व्यवस्था, केक के हिस्से काटना, अर्थात, लोगों का काम नष्ट हो रहा है, और शायद गायब भी हो जाए. | en-hi |
Solving this problem is going to require us to think in very different ways. | 이 문제를 해결하려면 완전히 다른 방식으로 생각해야 합니다. | en-ko |
There's going to be a lot of disagreement about what ought to be done, but it's important to remember that this is a far better problem to have than the one that haunted our ancestors for centuries: how to make that pie big enough in the first place. | Er gaat heel wat onenigheid zijn over wat er gedaan moet worden, maar hou voor ogen dat dit een veel beter probleem is om te hebben dan wat onze voorouders eeuwenlang kopzorgen gaf: hoe maak je in de eerste plaats die taart groot genoeg. | en-nl |
I love video games. | אני אוהב משחקי וידאו | en-he |
I'm also slightly in awe of them. | Ne sono anche leggermente soggiogato. | en-it |
I'm in awe of their power in terms of imagination, in terms of technology, in terms of concept. | Sono soggiogato dal loro potere in termini di immaginazione, in termini di tecnologia, in termini di concetto. | en-it |
But I think, above all, I'm in awe at their power to motivate, to compel us, to transfix us, like really nothing else we've ever invented has quite done before. | De mindenek felett lenyűgöz a hatalmuk, hogy motiváljanak, rávegyenek, lekössenek minket, mint igazából semmi más, amit ezelőtt feltaláltunk. | en-hu |
And I think that we can learn some pretty amazing things by looking at how we do this. | И я думаю, смотря на это, мы можем научиться довольно удивительным вещам. | en-ru |
And in particular, I think we can learn things about learning. | И по-точно, мисля, че можем да научим неща за ученето. | en-bg |
Now the video games industry is far and away the fastest growing of all modern media. | A indústria de jogos de vídeo é de longe a indústria com maior crescimento de todos os "media" modernos. | en-pt |
From about 10 billion in 1990, it's worth 50 billion dollars globally today, and it shows no sign of slowing down. | מבערך 10 מיליארד ב-1990 היא שווה 50 מיליארד דולר היום והיא אינה מגלה שום סימנים של האטה | en-he |
In four years' time, it's estimated it'll be worth over 80 billion dollars. | Estima-se que, dentro de quatro anos, o seu valor seja de mais de 80 mil milhões de dólares. | en-pt |
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