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The most massive tsunami perfect storm is bearing down upon us.
Badai terhebat tsunami yang dahsyat mengancam kita.
en-id
This perfect storm is mounting a grim reality, increasingly grim reality, and we are facing that reality with the full belief that we can solve our problems with technology, and that's very understandable.
Ši stichija palieka po savęs niūrią realybę, vis didėjančią niūrią realybę, ir mes pasitinkame šią realybę su tvirtu pasitikėjimu, kad technologijos padės išspręsti visas problemas ir visa tai suprantama. Ši milžiniška stichija, su kuria
en-lt
Now, this perfect storm that we are facing is the result of our rising population, rising towards 10 billion people, land that is turning to desert, and, of course, climate change.
Оваа совршена бура со која се соочуваме е резултат на нашата растечка популација која се ближи кон 10 милијарди луѓе, земјата која се претвора во пустина, и се разбира, климатските промени.
en-mk
Now there's no question about it at all: we will only solve the problem of replacing fossil fuels with technology.
Il ne fait désormais aucun doute : nous résoudrons seulement le problème de remplacer les combustibles fossiles avec la technologie.
en-fr
But fossil fuels, carbon -- coal and gas -- are by no means the only thing that is causing climate change.
परन्तु पेट्रोलियम, कार्बन, कोयला व गैस किसी भी अवस्था में केवल कारण नहीं है जो जलवायु परिवर्तन के लिए जिम्मेदार हों
en-hi
Desertification is a fancy word for land that is turning to desert, and this happens only when we create too much bare ground.
بیابان‌زایی یا در واقع تبدیل زمین‌های زراعی به بیابان هم بخشی از این تغییرات است كه تنها زمانی رخ می دهد كه زمین های بایر بسیاری ایجاد كرده باشیم.
en-fa
There's no other cause.
Semmi más oka nincsen.
en-hu
And I intend to focus on most of the world's land that is turning to desert.
Ik wil me richten op het grootste deel van het land op Aarde dat in woestijn verandert.
en-nl
But I have for you a very simple message that offers more hope than you can imagine.
但我要提出一個非常簡單的方法 能提供更多超乎想像的希望
en-zh-tw
We have environments where humidity is guaranteed throughout the year.
Существует природная среда, где влажность гарантирована круглый год.
en-ru
On those, it is almost impossible to create vast areas of bare ground.
Nestes é quase impossível surgirem vastas áreas de terra nua.
en-pt-br
No matter what you do, nature covers it up so quickly.
無論你怎麼做 大自然都能快速覆蓋它
en-zh-tw
And we have environments where we have months of humidity followed by months of dryness, and that is where desertification is occurring.
En we hebben omgevingen waarin natte maanden opgevolgd worden door maandenlange droogte. waarin natte maanden opgevolgd worden door maandenlange droogte. Dat is waar woestijnvorming plaatsvindt.
en-nl
Fortunately, with space technology now, we can look at it from space, and when we do, you can see the proportions fairly well.
Heldigvis, kan vi med rum-teknologien se det fra rummet. Og når man gør det, ser man proportionerne ret tydeligt.
en-da
Generally, what you see in green is not desertifying, and what you see in brown is, and these are by far the greatest areas of the Earth.
Generelt set, så er de grønne områder ikke i fare for ørkendannelse. Det brune I ser, og det er langt de største områder på jorden,
en-da
About two thirds, I would guess, of the world is desertifying.
Aproximadamente dos tercios, diría yo, del mundo está en proceso de desertificación.
en-es
I took this picture in the Tihamah Desert while 25 millimeters -- that's an inch of rain -- was falling.
Jag tog den här bilden i Tihamahöknen medan det regnade 25 millimeter - en tum.
en-sv
Think of it in terms of drums of water, each containing 200 liters.
Palyginkime šį kiekį su vandens statinėmis, kur kiekvienoje telpa po 200 litrų.
en-lt
Over 1,000 drums of water fell on every hectare of that land that day.
Peste 1.000 de astfel de butoaie de apă au căzut pe fiecare hectar în acea zi.
en-ro
The next day, the land looked like this.
Másnap a föld így nézett ki.
en-hu
Where had that water gone?
Dove era andata a finire l'acqua?
en-it
Some of it ran off as flooding, but most of the water that soaked into the soil simply evaporated out again, exactly as it does in your garden if you leave the soil uncovered.
Una parte era defluita come un'inondazione, ma la maggior parte di acqua assorbita dal terreno era semplicemente evaporata, proprio come succede nel vostro giardino se lasciate il terreno scoperto.
en-it
Now, because the fate of water and carbon are tied to soil organic matter, when we damage soils, you give off carbon.
Minthogy a víz és a szén sorsa a talaj szervesanyag-tartalmától függ, ha károsítjuk a talajt, szén távozik belőle.
en-hu
Carbon goes back to the atmosphere.
كربن را به جو بازخواهیم گرداند
en-fa
Now you're told over and over, repeatedly, that desertification is only occurring in arid and semi-arid areas of the world, and that tall grasslands like this one in high rainfall are of no consequence.
מספרים לנו שוב ושוב שהמידבור מתרחש אך ורק באזורים הצחיחים והצחיחים למחצה, ושאדמות-מרעה כמו זו באזורים בעלי רמות משקעים גבוהות אינן מושפעות.
en-he
But if you do not look at grasslands but look down into them, you find that most of the soil in that grassland that you've just seen is bare and covered with a crust of algae, leading to increased runoff and evaporation.
但是如果你不看其上之草 只看其下的土壤 你會發現你剛剛所見的草原 其土壤都裸露並被苔原覆蓋 造成逕流增加及水分蒸發
en-zh-tw
That is the cancer of desertification that we do not recognize till its terminal form.
Aquest és el càncer de la desertificació que no reconeixem fins que està en fase terminal.
en-ca
Now we know that desertification is caused by livestock, mostly cattle, sheep and goats, overgrazing the plants, leaving the soil bare and giving off methane.
Τώρα, γνωρίζουμε ότι η ερημοποίηση προκαλείται από τα ζώα κτηνοτροφίας, κυρίως βοοειδή, πρόβατα και κατσίκες, που κάνουν υπερβόσκηση των φυτών, απογυμνώνοντας το έδαφος και εκλύοντας μεθάνιο.
en-el
Almost everybody knows this, from nobel laureates to golf caddies, or was taught it, as I was.
Hemen hemen herkes bunu bilir, nobel ödüllülerden golfçülere kadar herkes biliyor, ya da böyle öğretildi, bana olduğu gibi.
en-tr
Now, the environments like you see here, dusty environments in Africa where I grew up, and I loved wildlife, and so I grew up hating livestock because of the damage they were doing.
A környezetek, mint ez, porszáraz környezetek Afrikában, ahol felnőttem. Imádtam a vadállatokat, és meggyűlöltem a haszonállatokat a károkért, amit okoztak.
en-hu
And then my university education as an ecologist reinforced my beliefs.
Sonra üniversitede okuduğum ekoloji bu inancımı güçlendirdi.
en-tr
Well, I have news for you.
Men, jag har nyheter att berätta.
en-sv
We were once just as certain that the world was flat.
Kažkada buvome taip pat įsitikinę, kad pasaulis yra plokščias.
en-lt
We were wrong then, and we are wrong again.
それは誤りでした 誤りは繰り返します
en-ja
And I want to invite you now to come along on my journey of reeducation and discovery.
और में अब आपको निमंत्रित करता हूँ मेरे जीवनकी पुनर्शिक्षा व खोज की यात्रा मे
en-hi
When I was a young man, a young biologist in Africa, I was involved in setting aside marvelous areas as future national parks.
omskolning och utforskning. När jag var en ung man, en ung biolog i Afrika, var jag involverad i att avsätta fantastiska arealer som framtida nationalparker.
en-sv
Now no sooner — this was in the 1950s — and no sooner did we remove the hunting, drum-beating people to protect the animals, than the land began to deteriorate, as you see in this park that we formed.
1950年代のことです 動物保護のため狩猟をして 太鼓を叩く民族を転移させた途端に 土地の劣化が始まりました できた国立公園はご覧のとおりです
en-ja
Now, no livestock were involved, but suspecting that we had too many elephants now, I did the research and I proved we had too many, and I recommended that we would have to reduce their numbers and bring them down to a level that the land could sustain.
Aucun élevage n'était impliqué, mais en soupçonnant d'avoir trop d'éléphants, j'ai fait des recherches et prouvé que nous en avions trop, j'ai recommandé de réduire leur nombre et de les ramener au niveau que peut supporter le territoire.
en-fr
Now, that was a terrible decision for me to have to make, and it was political dynamite, frankly.
Het was een vreselijke beslissing om te nemen voor mij, en het was politiek een heikele zaak.
en-nl
So our government formed a team of experts to evaluate my research.
Så vår regering satte samman ett expertteam för att utvärdera min forskning.
en-sv
They did. They agreed with me, and over the following years, we shot 40,000 elephants to try to stop the damage.
Mereka setuju dengan saya, dan tahun-tahun berikutnya, kami menembak 40.000 gajah untuk menghentikan kerusakan lahan.
en-id
And it got worse, not better.
Dan lebih buruk dari itu.
en-id
Loving elephants as I do, that was the saddest and greatest blunder of my life, and I will carry that to my grave.
За мене, кој ги сакам слоновите толку многу, тоа беше најтажната и најголемата грешка во мојот живот која ќе си ја носам со мене до гроб.
en-mk
One good thing did come out of it.
Het enige goede dat het opleverde,
en-nl
It made me absolutely determined to devote my life to finding solutions.
Nó khiến tôi toàn tâm toàn ý cống hiến cuộc đời của mình tìm kiếm giải pháp.
en-vi
When I came to the United States, I got a shock, to find national parks like this one desertifying as badly as anything in Africa.
Quando vim aos EUA, fiquei chocado, ao encontrar parques nacionais como este a sofrer desertificação tão grave como em África.
en-pt
And there'd been no livestock on this land for over 70 years.
Não existia gado nesta terra há mais de 70 anos.
en-pt
And I found that American scientists had no explanation for this except that it is arid and natural.
Ich erfuhr, dass amerikanische Wissenschaftler keine Erklärung dafür hatten, außer dass es trocken und natürlich sei.
en-de
So I then began looking at all the research plots I could over the whole of the Western United States where cattle had been removed to prove that it would stop desertification, but I found the opposite, as we see on this research station, where this grassland that was green in 1961, by 2002 had changed to that situation.
Så jeg begyndte at se på de forsknings-områder i det vestlige USA hvor kvæg var blevet fjernet, for at bevise, at det ville standse ørkendannelsen. Men jeg fandt det modsatte, som vi ser på denne forsøgsstation, hvor området, som var grønt i 1961 så sådan ud i 2002.
en-da
And the authors of the position paper on climate change from which I obtained these pictures attribute this change to "unknown processes."
I els autors de l'informe sobre la situació del canvi climàtic dels quals vaig obtenir aquestes fotografies atribueixen aquest canvi a "processos desconeguts."
en-ca
Clearly, we have never understood what is causing desertification, which has destroyed many civilizations and now threatens us globally.
มันชัดเจนว่า เราไม่เคยเข้าใจ ว่าทะเลทรายเกิดขึ้นได้อย่างไร ซึ่งเป็นปัจจัยที่ทำลายอารยธรรมมากมาย และกำลังเป็นภัยคุกคามพวกเราทั่วโลก
en-th
We have never understood it.
我们从来都没有搞清楚过。
en-zh-cn
Take one square meter of soil and make it bare like this is down here, and I promise you, you will find it much colder at dawn and much hotter at midday than that same piece of ground if it's just covered with litter, plant litter.
1メートル四方の土地を このように更地にすると 腐葉土に覆われた状態に比較して 腐葉土に覆われた場所と比較して きっと夜明け前には より冷たく 日中はより熱くなることでしょう きっと夜明け前には より冷たく 日中はより熱くなることでしょう
en-ja
You have changed the microclimate.
Bạn đã thay đổi vi khí hậu
en-vi
Now, by the time you are doing that and increasing greatly the percentage of bare ground on more than half the world's land, you are changing macroclimate.
Vào thời điểm bạn làm điều đó và tăng đáng kể tỷ lệ đất trống trên hơn một nửa đất của thế giới, bạn đang làm thay đổi khí hậu trên diện rộng.
en-vi
But we have just simply not understood why was it beginning to happen 10,000 years ago?
Men vi har bara inte förstått varför det började hända för 10 000 år sedan,
en-sv
Why has it accelerated lately?
De ce s-a accelerat procesul mai apoi?
en-ro
We had no understanding of that.
No teníamos conocimiento de ello.
en-es
What we had failed to understand was that these seasonal humidity environments of the world, the soil and the vegetation developed with very large numbers of grazing animals, and that these grazing animals developed with ferocious pack-hunting predators.
Wat ons ontging, was dat in deze seizoensgewijs vochtige omgevingen de bodem en de vegetatie zich ontwikkelden met grote groepen grazende dieren. de bodem en de vegetatie zich ontwikkelden met grote groepen grazende dieren. Deze grazende dieren leefden samen met woeste, groepsmatig jagende roofdieren.
en-nl
Now, the main defense against pack-hunting predators is to get into herds, and the larger the herd, the safer the individuals.
Hlavní obrana proti predátorům, je dostat se do stáda, a čím větší stádo je, tím víc je jednotlivec v bezpečí
en-cs
Now, large herds dung and urinate all over their own food, and they have to keep moving, and it was that movement that prevented the overgrazing of plants, while the periodic trampling ensured good cover of the soil, as we see where a herd has passed.
A nagy csordák trágyával és vizelettel szórják be a saját táplálékukat, és állandó mozgásban vannak, és ez a mozgás volt az, ami megakadályozta a növényzet túlzott lelegelését, a periodikus taposás pedig a talaj borítottságáról gondoskodott, ahogy itt is látjuk, ahol egy csorda haladt át.
en-hu
This picture is a typical seasonal grassland.
Na tym zdjęciu widzimy typową sezonową łąkę.
en-pl
It has just come through four months of rain, and it's now going into eight months of dry season.
Tocmai au trecut patru luni de ploi și urmează opt luni de secetă.
en-ro
And watch the change as it goes into this long dry season.
और आठ माह के सूखे के बदलाव को देखें
en-hi
Now, all of that grass you see aboveground has to decay biologically before the next growing season, and if it doesn't, the grassland and the soil begin to die.
Ahora, toda esa hierba que ven sobre el suelo tiene que descomponerse biológicamente antes de la siguiente temporada de crecimiento y si no lo hace, los pastizales y el suelo comienzan a morir.
en-es
Now, if it does not decay biologically, it shifts to oxidation, which is a very slow process, and this smothers and kills grasses, leading to a shift to woody vegetation and bare soil, releasing carbon.
Så, om den inte förruttnar biologiskt, så inträder oxidering, vilket är en mycket långsam process, och detta kväver och dödar gräs, vilket leder till högre vegetation och bar jord, som släpper ifrån sig kol.
en-sv
To prevent that, we have traditionally used fire.
Để ngăn việc này, chúng tôi thường dùng lửa.
en-vi
But fire also leaves the soil bare, releasing carbon, and worse than that, burning one hectare of grassland gives off more, and more damaging, pollutants than 6,000 cars.
Mas o fogo também deixa o solo nu, liberando carbono, e pior que isso, queimar um hectare de prado emite mais poluentes, e mais nocivos, do que 6 mil carros.
en-pt-br
And we are burning in Africa, every single year, more than one billion hectares of grasslands, and almost nobody is talking about it.
А ние горим в Африка всяка година повече от един милиард хектара тревни площи и почти никой не говори за това.
en-bg
We justify the burning, as scientists, because it does remove the dead material and it allows the plants to grow.
Come scienziati, giustifichiamo gli incendi perché rimuovono il detrito e permettono alle piante di crescere.
en-it
Now, looking at this grassland of ours that has gone dry, what could we do to keep that healthy?
では乾燥化が進んだこの草原を見てみましょう どうすれば健全な状態にできるでしょうか
en-ja
And bear in mind, I'm talking of most of the world's land now.
به خاطر داشته باشید كه داریم در مورد بخش بزرگی از خاك حرف می‌زنیم
en-fa
Okay? We cannot reduce animal numbers to rest it more without causing desertification and climate change.
איננו יכולים לצמצם את מספר בעלי-החיים כדי לאפשר מנוחה לאדמה מבלי לגרום למידבור ולשינוי אקלים.
en-he
We cannot burn it without causing desertification and climate change.
我们不能用焚烧的方法 这也会引发荒漠化和气候变化。
en-zh-cn
There is only one option, I'll repeat to you, only one option left to climatologists and scientists, and that is to do the unthinkable, and to use livestock, bunched and moving, as a proxy for former herds and predators, and mimic nature.
Sólo hay una opción, les repetiré, sólo una opción tienen los climatólogos y científicos y es hacer lo impensable, utilizar el ganado agrupado y en movimiento, como sustituto de los antiguos rebaños y depredadores e imitar a la naturaleza.
en-es
There is no other alternative left to mankind.
Tidak ada pilihan lain untuk manusia.
en-id
So on this bit of grassland, we'll do it, but just in the foreground.
Lo faremo su questo pezzo di prateria, ma solo in primo piano.
en-it
We'll impact it very heavily with cattle to mimic nature, and we've done so, and look at that.
Buna sığır sürüleriyle saldıracağız, doğayı taklit etmek amacıyla. ve öyle de yaptık, şuna bir bakın.
en-tr
All of that grass is now covering the soil as dung, urine and litter or mulch, as every one of the gardeners amongst you would understand, and that soil is ready to absorb and hold the rain, to store carbon, and to break down methane.
Všechna ta tráva nyní pokrývá zemi stejně tak hnůj, moč, stelivo či kompost, čemuž každý zahradník mezi vámi rozumí, a tato půda je připravena k vsáknutí a udržení deště, k udržení uhlíku a rozkladu metanu.
en-cs
And we did that, without using fire to damage the soil, and the plants are free to grow.
A to se nám povedlo, bez použití ohně k poškození půdy, a rostliny můžou volně růst.
en-cs
When I first realized that we had no option as scientists but to use much-vilified livestock to address climate change and desertification, I was faced with a real dilemma.
När jag förstod för första gången att vi som forskare inte hade något val annat än att använda den nedtalade boskapen för att komma till rätta med klimatförändring och ökenutbredning, stod jag inför ett riktigt dilemma:
en-sv
How were we to do it?
Hvordan skulle vi gøre det?
en-da
We'd had 10,000 years of extremely knowledgeable pastoralists bunching and moving their animals, but they had created the great manmade deserts of the world.
遊牧には1万年の歴史があり 動物の群を作り 移動する方法は確立されています しかしそのせいで人工的な 砂漠が世界中で増えています
en-ja
Then we'd had 100 years of modern rain science, and that had accelerated desertification, as we first discovered in Africa and then confirmed in the United States, and as you see in this picture of land managed by the federal government.
Potem przez 100 lat współczesnej nauki znacznie przyspieszyliśmy ten proces, jak widać na przykładzie Afryki oraz Stanów Zjednoczonych. Widać to na tym zdjęciu terenów zarządzanych przez rząd federalny.
en-pl
Clearly more was needed than bunching and moving the animals, and humans, over thousands of years, had never been able to deal with nature's complexity.
Claramente era necessário mais do que agrupar e mover os animais, e os seres humanos, ao longo de milhares de anos, nunca foram capazes de lidar com a complexidade da Natureza.
en-pt
But we biologists and ecologists had never tackled anything as complex as this.
Biolodzy i ekolodzy nie radzą sobie z tak skomplikowanymi procesami.
en-pl
So rather than reinvent the wheel, I began studying other professions to see if anybody had.
그래서 쓸데없이 시간을 보내느니 누가 해법을 갖고 있는지 보려고 다른 분야를 연구했습니다.
en-ko
And I found there were planning techniques that I could take and adapt to our biological need, and from those I developed what we call holistic management and planned grazing, a planning process, and that does address all of nature's complexity and our social, environmental, economic complexity.
A nalezl jsem plánovací techniku, které by jsem se mohl chopit a upravit pro naší biologickou potřebu, a z tohoto jsem vytvořil to, čemu říkáme - komplexní řízení a plánovaná pastva, plánovací proces, který je vhodný pro veškerou přírodní složitost, stejně tak naší společenské, enviromentální a ekonomické složitosti.
en-cs
Today, we have young women like this one teaching villages in Africa how to put their animals together into larger herds, plan their grazing to mimic nature, and where we have them hold their animals overnight -- we run them in a predator-friendly manner, because we have a lot of lands, and so on -- and where they do this and hold them overnight to prepare the crop fields, we are getting very great increases in crop yield as well.
Vandaag hebben we jonge vrouwen als deze, die in Afrikaanse dorpen onderwijzen Vandaag hebben we jonge vrouwen als deze, die in Afrikaanse dorpen onderwijzen hoe men zijn vee samenvoegt, het grazen plant om de natuur na te bootsen, hoe men zijn vee samenvoegt, het grazen plant om de natuur na te bootsen. Daar waar de dieren 's nachts gehouden worden -- we beheren ze op een roofdiervriendelijke wijze, want we hebben veel leeuwen enzovoort -- we beheren ze op een roofdiervriendelijke wijze, want we hebben veel leeuwen enzovoort -- en waar ze dit doen en ze 's nachts onderbrengen om de velden voor te bereiden, en waar ze dit doen en ze 's nachts onderbrengen om de velden voor te bereiden, zien we tevens grote toenames in oogstopbrengst.
en-nl
Let's look at some results.
결과를 좀 보시죠.
en-ko
This is land close to land that we manage in Zimbabwe.
Vùng đất này gần giống với khu đất chúng tôi quản lí tại Zambebwe.
en-vi
It has just come through four months of very good rains it got that year, and it's going into the long dry season.
Ela acabara de passar por 4 meses de boas chuvas naquele ano, e estava entrando no longo período de seca.
en-pt-br
But as you can see, all of that rain, almost of all it, has evaporated from the soil surface.
しかし見てのとおり雨水は 地表からほとんど蒸発してしまいました
en-ja
Their river is dry despite the rain just having ended, and we have 150,000 people on almost permanent food aid.
رودخانه با اینكه بارش‌ها به تازگی تمام شده‌اند، خشك شده و ۱۵۰٫۰۰۰ نفر ساكنان منطقه كاملا وابسته به كمك‌های غذایی هستند.
en-fa
Now let's go to our land nearby on the same day, with the same rainfall, and look at that.
Vejamos a nossa terra ao lado, no mesmo dia, com a mesma chuva, e observemos.
en-pt
Our river is flowing and healthy and clean.
우리 강은 물이 흐르고, 건강하고, 깨끗합니다.
en-ko
It's fine.
C'est bien.
en-fr
The production of grass, shrubs, trees, wildlife, everything is now more productive, and we have virtually no fear of dry years.
A produção de grama, arbustos, árvores, animais selvagens -- tudo está mais produtivo agora, e praticamente não temos medo de anos secos.
en-pt-br
And we did that by increasing the cattle and goats 400 percent, planning the grazing to mimic nature and integrate them with all the elephants, buffalo, giraffe and other animals that we have.
우리는 소와 염소 수를 400 %로 늘려서 그 사업을 했습니다. 자연을 흉내내어 계획된 방목을 하고 코끼리, 물소 기린, 다른 동물들과 함께 병합했습니다.
en-ko
But before we began, our land looked like that.
Но пред да почнеме, нашата земја изгледаше вака
en-mk