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2	such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Faster productivity growth was among the factors that boosted equity valuations	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Among other questions that could be addressed would be how policy actions (as opposed to inflation outcomes) influence expectations and how sensitive Federal Reserve credibility is to short-run departures from low inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Though widely anticipated even before the actions of October, the recession and retrenchment in employment that followed those actions resulted in pressures on the Federal Reserve to reverse course.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Some participants believed that considerable labor market slack remained, especially when indicators other than the unemployment rate were taken into account, including the unusually large fraction of the labor force working part time for economic reasons.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Consider a price increase for a breakfast cereal that increases the prices of both the brand-name cereal and the corresponding lower-priced store-brand cereal but maintains a differential between them.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the course of the Committee's discussion of the outlook for inflation, members commented that there was no persuasive evidence in recent statistical measures that price inflation was currently picking up or that inflation expectations were rising, though the declines in both inflation and expectations experienced over the course of recent years no longer seemed to be occurring.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	What monetary policy affects, primarily, is the state of the business cycle, the amount of excess unemployment or the extent of recession in the economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So we do say that risks to the financial system—we say in our longer-run statement of goals and monetary policy strategy that risks to the financial system that could prevent us from achieving our goals are something that we do take into consideration.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But, as a consequence of low interest rates, the servicing requirement for that debt relative to homeowners' income is roughly in line with the historical average.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to produce; and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The System Open Market Account manager and the secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. "	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In contrast, the dollar appreciated against the AFE currencies, reflecting continued divergence in monetary policy expectations for the United States and AFEs as well as political uncertainty in Europe.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Many would ask what challenges could monetary policymakers possibly face in the U.S., given the remarkable combination of consistent above-trend growth and declining inflation?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	These participants cited, for example, the still-elevated levels of long-term unemployment and workers employed part time for economic reasons as well as low labor force participation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The gains in employment over July and August were generally seen as larger than anticipated.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Employment had risen a little,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Indeed, some expressed the concern that, with the persistence of considerable resource slack, inflation might run below mandate-consistent levels for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Many potential inflation targeters ask, "Why not zero?"	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy One of the most remarkable and fundamental changes in the global financial landscape over the past three decades has been the steady and significant decline in global sovereign bond yields.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct the deviation in spending.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But I continue to believe that the underlying rate inflation in the U.S. economy is hovering close to our 2 percent longer-run objective and, thus, that the unwelcome surge in inflation this year, once these relative price adjustments are complete and bottlenecks have unclogged, will in the end prove to be largely transitory.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	By reducing our scope to support the economy by cutting interest rates, the lower bound increases downward risks to employment and inflation.22 To counter these risks, we are prepared to use our full range of tools to support the economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Such increases in productivity along with slack in foreign economies contributed to the very strong competition in most markets that was continuing generally to suppress efforts to raise prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast for economic activity as similar to its normal level over the past 20 years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	It would have been difficult for the Committee to put forward a 7 percent unemployment goal when the current program started and unemployment was 8.1 percent; this would have involved a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of asset purchases required to reach this goal.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Geopolitical uncertainties, notably those relating to developments in Iraq, frequently were cited by business contacts as a major reason for caution, but other factors inhibiting capital expenditures evidently included excess capacity and limited prospects for profits because of increased energy, insurance, pension, and other costs and a concomitant inability to raise selling prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Inflation is a significant challenge for everyone, but it hits lower- and moderate-income people the hardest, since they spend a larger share of their incomes on necessities and often have less savings to fall back on.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In keeping with its usual procedures under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, the Committee would review its ranges at midyear, or sooner if interim conditions warranted, in light of the growth and velocity behavior of the aggregates and ongoing economic and financial developments.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In his view, historical precedents suggested that prolonged periods of taut labor markets were eventually associated with rising inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although single-family housing starts had come down substantially from their peak, the drop had lagged the decline in demand, and as a result, inventories of new homes had risen considerably.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and participating Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate for each year from 2015 through 2017 and over the longer run, conditional on each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Consistent with the optimism driving stock prices, spreads of corporate bond yields over comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed markedly across the credit spectrum, most notably for debt securities of the lowest credit quality firms.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With regards to inflation, the median inflation projection of FOMC participants is 2.4 percent this year and declines to 2 percent next year before moving back up to 2.1 percent in 2023.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	There are, however, some problems with this story as the principal explanation for the favorable inflation performance.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	With inventories lower, firms were beginning to raise production to meet at least a portion of increased demand, and this adjustment was expected to make an important contribution to economic recovery in the fourth quarter of the year and, to a lesser extent, in 2010 as well.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With regard to the outlook for inflation, the gap between actual and potential output was anticipated to diminish only slowly unless aggregate demand expanded much more rapidly than the members currently foresaw.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	One branch of economists holds the view that monetary policy should not be influenced by any perceived financial market bubbles.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The extraordinary achievement of 1996, of course, was reaching such low levels of unemployment and inflation at the same time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The members viewed the outlook for core price inflation as still quite benign, largely reflecting the ample availability of labor and other producer resources to accommodate rising economic activity and the favorable prospects for further robust growth in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Despite a recent uptick in consumer prices, year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The central tendency of the unemployment rate projections is slightly lower than in the March projections and now stands at 6.0 to 6.1 percent at the end of this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But in terms of just targeting growth, you know, I think—I actually think our dual mandate works very well, which is maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	I strongly supported the FOMC's decision last week, and I expect to support additional rate increases until we see significant progress toward bringing inflation down.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	We all saw the remarkable price increases and shortages in the used car market.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation; increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Nonfarm payroll employment increased sharply further in January and February, and the civilian unemployment rate, at 4.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demandâ€“supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Nonetheless, with fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff anticipated that real GDP growth would not materially exceed increases in potential output in 2013.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	And our plan as we do that is, as those purchases get to that level, we believe we can gradually reduce them, and we believe we can also gradually reduce repo as—as we reach an ample level, as we’re satisfying demand now more from underlying reserves from bill purchases rather than from repo.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In particular, we may need additional public communications about the conditions that constitute substantial further progress since December toward our broad and inclusive definition of maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Reserve balances are one among several items on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and demand for these liabilitiesâ€”notably, currency in circulationâ€”grows over time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	M2 and M3 have posted very large gains in recent months, reflecting the effects of recent System easing actions on market interest rates and shifts of funds by households out of investments in equities and lower-rated corporate debt.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	After taking account of both frictional and structural unemployment, what unemployment rate is roughly equivalent to the maximum level of employment that can be sustained in the longer run?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Reports from several Districts suggested that firms had greater scope than in the recent past to raise prices in response to strong demand or increases in input costs, including those associated with tariff increases and recent rises in fuel and freight expenses.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Another factor that has contributed to the swing toward current-account surplus among the non-industrialized nations in the past few years is the sharp rise in oil prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	November 19, 2021 Perspectives on Global Monetary Policy Coordination, Cooperation, and Correlation Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the "Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery" 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies, San Francisco, California (via webcast) Share Watch Live In my remarks today, I would like to offer some perspectives on global monetary policy correlation and what it canâ€”and cannotâ€”reveal about the prevalence and value of global monetary policy coordination or, in the limit, binding global monetary cooperation.1 In both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Global Pandemic Collapse (GPC), major central banks around the world responded by cutting policy rates to, and then keeping them at, their effective lower bounds (ELBs); by increasing their balance sheets through ambitious and expansive large-scale asset purchase and lending programs; and by offering forward guidanceâ€”both Delphic and Odysseanâ€”on the stance of their future monetary policies.2 As these examples make clear, we certainly do observe that national monetary policies are often correlated, and such examples are not confined to recent experience.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	As is evident in the right-hand chart, the relationship between the growth differential and capital inflows to EMEs seems to be quite strong.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	As you can see, transforming the information available from published statistics into concepts useful for assessing the consequences of monetary policy is, in fact, quite complex.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In any case, we, our job is to deliver price stability, and I think—you can think of price stability as an asset that just delivers large benefits to society over a long period of time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Our current framework for implementing monetary policy is working very well.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	How the forces of demand, potential supply, and expectations interact has probably not been changed in any fundamental way by the recent trend of globalization.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Such second-round effects are likely to be quite limited as long as the rise in the relative price of energy does not lead to a rise in long-run inflation expectations, as has largely been the case in the recent period (figure 1).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The first area is the characterization of good monetary policy in increasingly realistic and complex model environments.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	What I do want to share with you is how the equity market fits into my thinking about monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The 5.4% unemployment rate in 1996 was the lowest annual rate since 1988 and before that since 1973.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The staff continued to project that the accommodative stance of monetary policy, together with a further attenuation of financial stress, the waning of adverse effects of earlier declines in wealth, and improving household and business confidence, would support a moderate recovery in economic activity and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the next two years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Looking to the future, however, the members generally agreed that the risks were in the direction of a heightening in inflation pressures despite their belief that growth in overall demand now seemed to have declined to a more sustainable pace and probably would continue to expand for a time at a rate below that of the economy's output potential.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	May 26, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles At the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, David, and thank you to Brookings and the Hutchins Center for the opportunity to lead things off and be part of this very distinguished panel.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And inflation is well above target.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Overall inflation was projected to remain subdued, with the staff's forecasts for headline and core inflation little changed from the previous projection.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	I would note, by the way, that at the current moment, it doesn’t really matter whether we have one mandate or two, because we’re below our inflation target and we—unemployment is above where we’d like it to be.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Residential construction activity remained at a high level, evidently supported in part by recent declines in mortgage interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The drop in demand leads, in turn, to a decline in actual output relative to its potential, that is, the level of output that the economy can produce at the maximum sustainable level of employment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In response to the resulting high inflation, the Fed was obliged to raise interest rates, and the economy weakened.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Indicators of supply and demand conditions for small business credit were generally unchanged over the past quarter, with demand appearing to remain weak.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Indeed, in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, four out of five countries in this group are expected to post inflation rates between 1 percent and 3 percent this year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A fifth factor is supply bottlenecks that manufacturers and importers are currently experiencing; supply chain constraints are boosting prices, particularly for goodsâ€”less so for services.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	To measure productivity and standards of living we need measures of output but, to measure output, we need to be able to define products clearly and in terms of units that do not change from one period to the next.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The high oil prices would themselves cut into demand growth and tend to stabilize the system.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment; another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Crude oil prices, though volatile, had not risen appreciably in recent months on balance, and a flattening in energy prices was beginning to damp headline inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Fiscal austerity is the one tried and true approach to dealing with budget and trade deficits simultaneously.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Although the required amount of cumulative tightening may have increased, members noted that an accelerated pace of policy tightening did not appear necessary at this time, as a degree of economic slack apparently remained, productivity growth would probably continue to damp increases in unit labor costs and prices, and inflation would most likely continue to be contained.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in household wealth,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Last year was the fifth consecutive year that inflation, measured by the chain GDP price index, was 2.6% or lower and the 5-year compound annual inflation rate is now 2.5%, the lowest since 1967.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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