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0 | This is perhaps because the emphasis on price stability is taken by some as carrying a hint of restrictive policy and as an inclination to always be leaning against cyclical increases in demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Funding of our current account deficit likely will become more difficult when home bias approaches its practical minimum. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But low rates are not solely or even primarily a result of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies; they are rooted in the market's expectations of low inflation and the weakness of the economic recovery, factors weighing on rates not just in the United States but throughout the advanced economies.7 Given low real rates and low inflation, expected nominal returns should be low across all asset classes. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Many potential inflation targeters ask, "Why not zero?" | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Both of these views would suggest a lower level of potential output and thus reduced scope for combating unemployment with additional monetary policy stimulus. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, growth of mortgage loans on banks' books slowed somewhat in the first half of this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that the Federal Reserve's large-scale securities purchases were providing financial stimulus that would contribute to the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And the maximum level of employment that’s consistent with price stability evolves over time within a—within a business cycle and over a longer period, in part reflecting [the] evolution of the factors that affect labor supply, including those related to the pandemic. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, household spending had been relatively robust during the cyclical downturn and likely had only limited room for a pickup over coming quarters, and intense competitive pressures could well constrain profits, investment, and equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It was possible, though, that investors' uncertainty regarding inflation prospects, not just inflation expectations themselves, had risen. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In response to the resulting high inflation, the Fed was obliged to raise interest rates, and the economy weakened. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Looking beyond the near term, the members anticipated that as the prevailing uncertainties began to diminish, the economy's resiliency abetted by broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal polices and the continuation of a strong uptrend in productivity would underpin a gradual economic recovery. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | By getting unemployment down, we hope to bring back to work some of the people who’ve been out of work as long as they have and, in that respect, try to avoid the longer-term consequences of people being out of work for months at a time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members still saw the economic expansion continuing, and most believed that inflation was likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward levels they consider more consistent with the Committee's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But, really, it isn’t monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In keeping with the practice at meetings when the Committee establishes its long-run ranges for growth of the money and debt aggregates, the members of the Committee and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents not currently serving as members had prepared individual projections of economic activity, the rate of unemployment, and inflation for the year 1996. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For the twelve months ended in September, prices of consumer items other than food and energy increased by a considerably smaller amount than in the year- earlier period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We have Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL households who are becoming more comfortable with their debt levels and more able to service that debt, an improving job market. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In the United States, Congress has set the objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act, as amended in 1977. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Productivity and the equilibrium real interest rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The members expected price pressures to remain relatively contained over the next several quarters in the context of what they anticipated would be only a gradual reduction of the excess capacity in labor and product markets as the recovery progressed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But that forecast for growth and uncertainty about the resolution of supply constraints mean that there are upside risks to inflation next year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Productivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls in recessions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That apparently has not made its way into prices yet, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But in many countries around the Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL world that are important commodity exporters, the decline we’ve seen in oil prices has had a depressing effect on their growth, their trade with us and other trade partners, and caused problems that have had spillovers to the global economy as well. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Broad equity price indexes decreased slightly, on net, as substantial early gains arising from investors' improved perceptions about the inflation outlook and better-than-feared second-quarter earnings were more than offset by later losses arising from expectations that the Committee would follow a more restrictive policy than previously expected. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate for each year from 2015 through 2018 and over the longer run, conditional on each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And, you know, we do want inflation to run moderately above 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By definition, multifactor productivity includes technical change, organizational improvements, cyclical factors, and myriad other influences on output per hour, apart from capital investment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened, while several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although single-family housing starts had come down substantially from their peak, the drop had lagged the decline in demand, and as a result, inventories of new homes had risen considerably. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, if financial market participants thought that the Federal Reserve were not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability, they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets and the resulting decline in the exchange value of the dollar would tend to add to inflationary pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | One involves the so-called zero bound on nominal interest rates; the other involves labor markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, some expressed the concern that, with the persistence of considerable resource slack, inflation might run below mandate-consistent levels for some time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The unemployment rate fell to 5. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Over time, spot prices are inexorably drawn back to the long-term equilibrium price, as the balance between underlying supply and demand is restored. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the near term, 12-month measures of PCE inflation are expected to move above 2 percent as the very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation and past increases in oil prices pass through to consumer energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And we’ve seen significant outflows of capital from those countries, pressures on their exchange rates, and concerns about their performance going forward. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | the approach can be applied equally well by "inflation hawks," "growth hawks," and anyone in between. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On the other hand, by that metric, the, the September 16, 2020 unemployment rate would have been in the—in the 20s in, in April. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The U.S. economy is in a good place, and we will continue to use our monetary policy tools to help keep it there. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Fed's credibility, earned over decades of low inflation, is a powerful policy tool that is critical to our long-term success. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The unemployment rate was likely to remain low going forward, and various participants remarked that there were some indications that further strengthening in overall labor market conditions was possible without creating undesirable pressures on resources. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a result, recent high inflation readings are transitory and not broad based. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending, especially if house prices declined significantly. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, all but one of the members believed that in light of the uncertainties about the economic outlook, an immediate policy tightening was not needed in the absence of firmer indications that inflationary pressures might be emerging. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Looking ahead, however, members reiterated earlier concerns that aggregate demand could continue to grow faster than potential aggregate supply, even under optimistic assumptions regarding future productivity gains. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and—in the same sentence—that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | M3 growth slowed less than that of M2 in November, in part because of stepped-up issuance of large time deposits as banks reduced their reliance on funding from overseas offices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As you may know, the interest rate that we target is the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One participant suggested that the economic projections would be more understandable if they were based on a common interest rate path. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | To reduce that uncertainty, we often use the unemployment gap rather than the output gap in these rules.19 We also need to pick values for the coefficients a and b, whether they are the values John Taylor posited in his seminal 1993 article or other values from the vast literature that has come since.20 There are still other choices to make. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Federal Reserve takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies into the United States, as well as in the reverse direction. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants viewed the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity had been expanding moderately despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The prospect of additional fiscal stimulus likely contributed to a steeper U. S. Treasury yield curve, increased inflation compensation, and broad dollar depreciation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | After falling steeply before the August FOMC meeting, emerging market equity prices were little changed, on net, over the period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval, and suggest how lessons from history and a careful focus on incoming data and the evolving risks offer useful guidance for today's unique monetary policy challenges. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Nonetheless, considerable uncertainty surrounded expectations of rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants marked up their inflation projections, as they assessed that supply constraints in product and labor markets were larger and likely to be longer lasting than previously anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The System Open Market Account manager and the secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Risk sentiment abroad fluctuated over the intermeeting period as market participants weighed increasing coronavirus cases in a number of countries against improving economic data releases and ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Operationally, maintaining price stability requires abiding by the Taylor principle of raising nominal interest rates more than one for one in response to movements in inflation, especially those movements perceived as persistent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Recent data on core consumer prices led the staff to mark down slightly its forecast for core PCE inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior; another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | At these low rates, the central bank is poorly positioned to respond to further negative demand shocks. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Subsequently, the expected future path of monetary policy dropped amid increasing concerns about the health of financial institutions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And, and those are—that’s again—that goes to keeping this episode as short as it can be and avoiding unnecessary business bankruptcies, unnecessary household bankruptcies, and unnecessary long-term stays of unemployment or supporting people through them so that they can maintain their financial footing and their lives and be able to go back to work in a productive way. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So, we are taking account of international developments, including prospects for growth in our trade partners, in making the forecast we have here. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Looking ahead, however, members reiterated earlier concerns that aggregate demand could continue to grow faster than potential aggregate supply, even under optimistic assumptions regarding future productivity gains. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Lessons from Past Productivity Booms First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were general purpose technologies (GPTs) with widespread applicability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, most members saw substantial downside risks to the economic outlook and judged that a rate reduction at this meeting would provide valuable additional insurance against an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To cite a recent study, Faust and Wright (2007) show that real-time staff forecasts of inflation reliably outperform statistical benchmarks at all horizons and that this advantage is not solely the result of the staff's expertise at estimating near-term inflation rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a result, consistent with the policy implication of Bill's 1970 model, the Federal Reserve (like most other central banks) today uses the overnight interbank rate as the principal operating target of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Core consumer inflation had moved lower, but overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | More subtly, my conclusion that the effects on inflation of transitory changes in commodity prices or in the value of the dollar tend to dissipate in the longer run depends on the assumption that the public's inflation expectations are well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On the positive side, weakness in world demand for oil was fostering a significant downtrend in energy prices, albeit with adverse effects on energy producers in this country and abroad. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But the members generally were concerned that inflation might begin to rise over the intermediate term, especially if labor markets tightened further. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And those don’t—those, frankly, don’t carry significant implications in the long run for the—for inflation or for the American economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Well, if the economy worsens and inflation remains relatively low, then we wouldn’t begin to exit, and, therefore, we wouldn’t change the language. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | May 13, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Governor Christopher J. Waller At The Global Interdependence Center's 39th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, The LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, George and the Global Interdependence Center, for the invitation to speak to you this afternoon. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, although market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In their review of the outlook for prices, members noted that incoming data over the intermeeting period had shown a slowing in core inflation from the high levels posted earlier in the year, consistent with the Committee's view that a portion of the earlier increase had reflected transitory factors. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Many expected those conditions to be met later this year, although several members were concerned about downside risks to the outlook for real activity and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Major reasons for optimism about the outlook were the substantial easing in monetary policy, whose lagged effects would be felt increasingly in the year ahead, and the fiscal stimulus measures that already had been enacted and might well be supplemented over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | During this time of reopening, we are likely to see some upward pressure on prices, and I’ll discuss why. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We said that we would "aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time" to ensure that it averages 2 percent over time and that inflation expectations stay anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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