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2	There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In those Districts in which activity had been adversely affected by the drop in energy prices, drilling activity was either contracting less rapidly or was stabilizing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers--and many of us, of course, are both.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	This is an example of offsetting the attenuation in the response to the output gap with a more aggressive response to inflation realizations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Stock options are incorporated, based on gains upon exercising the options, in the productivity and cost measure, but not in the ECI.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	One prominent example is with semiconductor producers and their need to dramatically alter the mix of production to meet demands of the high-tech and automotive industries.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Many would ask what challenges could monetary policymakers possibly face in the U.S., given the remarkable combination of consistent above-trend growth and declining inflation?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although we cannot ascertain the precise rates of resource utilization that the economy can sustain, we can have little doubt that, after three years of above-trend growth, slack has been substantially reduced.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In considering the statement to be released following this meeting, members concurred that it should note that even with the rise in oil prices, the expansion remained firm and labor markets continued to improve gradually.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Moreover, if declines in house prices were to damp consumption, that could feed back on employment and income, exerting additional restraint on the demand for housing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Also, in the view of a number of participants, the economy was possibly producing in the neighborhood of its potential, and the persistent strength in spending of late suggested that resource markets could tighten further and inflation pressures build.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	First, we must be mindful that an unexpected slowdown might occur in the growth of productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Construction employment posted another large increase, probably owing in part to hurricane-related activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Assisted by the whole array of market prices, entrepreneurs seek to identify the types of products and services that individuals will value, especially the added value placed on products and services that customers find better tailored to their particular needs, delivered in shorter time frames, or improved in quality.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The first question is whether the degree of easing implemented in response to financial market turbulence and the abrupt downward revision in the forecast should be reassessed in light of the subsequent improvement in financial conditions and the continued robustness of domestic demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Committee's accompanying statement noted that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But, again underscoring an earlier point, this tightness of the labor market has not manifested itself in ongoing escalation of wage inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But to the extent that continues to be the case, that should make it easier to restore price stability.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, energy prices were expected to level out, and rents, while difficult to forecast, were viewed by some participants as likely to decelerate in coming quarters.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To measure productivity and standards of living we need measures of output but, to measure output, we need to be able to define products clearly and in terms of units that do not change from one period to the next.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The downside risks from the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged down or that the dollar could appreciate substantially were seen as roughly counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its longer-run potential.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Moreover, the resulting robust gains in labor productivity have been well ahead of compensation growth and have dramatically boosted corporate profits.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, given the difficulty in distinguishing between changes in asset prices dominated by fundamental forces and those driven by non-fundamental forces, policymakers should not target asset prices or try to guide them to the policymakers' estimate of fundamental value.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The specific price-stability target of an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, was announced as part of the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy following the January 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Available information suggested that economic activity in the major foreign industrial countries continued to advance, but at an uneven pace; in Germany, activity rebounded from the contraction in the first quarter, while in Japan a considerable slowing of growth had occurred in the second quarter after very rapid expansion in the first quarter.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indeed, such hearings used to be a regular feature in the weeks leading up to semiannual monetary policy hearings.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The central tendency rises to 2.4 to 2.7 percent next year, somewhat above estimates of the longer-run growth rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The first is what to do about supply shocks, like large increases in oil prices, which tend to increase both inflation and unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	For example, households have been able with increasing ease to extract equity from their homes, and this doubtless has helped support consumer spending in recent years, complementing the traditional effects of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In conjunction with the FOMC meeting in April, all meeting participants (Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents) provided annual projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for the period 2008 through 2010.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The behavior of inflation had been unexpectedly benign for an extended period of time for reasons that were not fully understood.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Yields on longer-term inflation-indexed Treasury securities, which are relatively illiquid, rose more sharply than did those on nominal securities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	On average, over the period from November 2020 to January 2021, the fraction of prime-age women with children aged 6 to 17 who were out of the labor force for caregiving had increased by 2.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while for men the fraction had increased by about 0.6 percentage point.5 If not soon reversed, the decline in the participation rate for primeâ€‘age women could have scarring effects, with longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth.6 Roughly 90 percent of the shortfall in private payroll employment relative to the pre-COVID level is concentrated in service-providing industries, with half of these service job losses in leisure and hospitality.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Econometric methods were also refined to improve estimation and to accommodate more-complex dynamics in money demand equations.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The authorsâ€™ principal empirical finding is that the onset and, to a lesser degree, the end of the Great Inflation were closely synchronized across a number of countries.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Apart from notably adverse business sentiment and disappointing growth in sales and profits, factors that were curbing capital expenditures cited by members included persisting capital overhangs stemming from what were now seen as excessive earlier buildups in equipment and software and substantial idle capacity in many industrial and commercial structures.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although the unemployment rate edged up to 5.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indeed, the discrepancy between actual and predicted money growth was sufficiently large that the P* model, if not subjected to judgmental adjustments, would have predicted deflation for 1991 and 1992.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	That is, monetary policy responds to changes in fiscal policy in much the same way that it responds to other influences on the economy, such as equity prices, exchange rates, or the demand for U.S. exports due to changed growth prospects abroad.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	As a monetary policy maker, I am interested in these links because the prices of financial assets affect the spending decisions of firms and households and because these prices may reveal forward-looking information relevant for setting policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Another example of deficit targets comes from the balanced-budget requirements of the states, which can be viewed as deficit targets with the target set at zero.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Because they cannot rule out the chance that some asset prices might correct more than anticipated, policymakers must consider how the economy might withstand such a correction.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Financial factors also seemed likely on balance to accommodate continuing growth in consumer spending, in particular the marked increases that had occurred in the value of stock holdings and a still-ample availability of credit to most households.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A couple of participants indicated that they would not favor adopting a restrictive policy stance in the absence of clear signs of an overheating economy and rising inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	That sentiment was apparently reinforced over the remainder of the period by the comments of several Federal Reserve officials and the release of the August employment report, which seemed to convey the view that the economy was emerging from its "soft patch. "	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In fact, the low funds rate has been necessary to promote growth that, to date, has been just sufficient to begin reducing substantial margins of slack in resource utilization.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	the effect of prior changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar on core consumer prices had apparently been limited.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	"4 While this new framework represents a robust evolution in our monetary policy strategy, this strategy is in service to the dual-mandate goals of monetary policy assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congressâ€”maximum employment and price stabilityâ€”which remain unchanged.5 Concluding Remarks While economic recovery since the spring collapse has been robust, let us not forget that full economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession has a long way to go.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Today a rise in oil prices has mixed effects on the economy, lowering real household incomes and thus demand, but raising investment in drilling over time and benefiting oil-producing areas more generally.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, participants remarked that the actual rise in inflation was larger than anticipated, with the 12-month change in the PCE price index reaching 3.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Major equity indexes appeared to be supported by lower interest rates and posted modest gains despite the increases in energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	More broadly, signs of a pickup in growth in economic activity in some AFEs and emerging Asian economies other than China also appeared to contribute to the improvement in sentiment in financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Nonetheless, if the influence of globalization on inflation is as substantial as many claim, we might have expected the standard model to have had difficulty in predicting recent inflation trends.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months, but also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In these circumstances, the Committee believed that some further measured policy firming was likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A widespread view that the Federal Reserve would take whatever steps were needed to hold down inflation over time probably had contributed to the persistence of subdued long-run inflation expectations during an extended period when rapidly rising demand was pressing on limited supply resources.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In particular, Do all equity price movements--whether related to fundamentals or not--have the same effect on investment spending?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	From a low near $30 per barrel in late 2003, the price of oil rose to $70 per barrel by the middle of 2006, and it has stayed high, with the current price more than $80.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, the historical record suggests that permanently lowering inflation expectations may require keeping monetary policy tight for a substantial period, resulting in considerable output and employment losses for a time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The remarkable coming together of technologies that we label IT has allowed us to move beyond efficiency gains in routine manual tasks to achieve new levels of productivity in routine information-processing tasks that previously depended upon other facets of human input--computing, sorting and retrieving information, and acting on pieces of information.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Certainly, if we are to remain preeminent in transforming knowledge into economic value, the U.S. system of higher education must remain the world's leader in generating scientific and technological breakthroughs and in preparing workers to meet the evolving demands for skilled labor.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	At the same time, the incentive to take advantage of increasingly efficient high-tech equipment and software typically available at declining prices would continue to provide an important underpinning for further large gains in investment spending, with favorable implications for continued rapid growth in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent with any set of relative social weights on inflation and unemployment	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With underlying inflation running below 2 percent for many years and COVID contributing to a further decline, it is important that monetary policy support inflation expectations that are consistent with inflation centered on 2 percent over time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Ellen Zentner, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In particular, participants judged that communicating the Committee's expectation that short-term interest rates were likely to stay exceptionally low for some time could be useful because it could lead to pricing of longer-term interest rates consistent with the path of monetary policy that policymakers saw as most likely.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And maybe reducing their level of the natural rate of unemployment, which has been the trend.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But it could be that if interest rates rise quickly, for example, that we would be in a situation of not giving remittances to the Treasury for a couple of years, and that would create problems, no doubt, for the Fed in terms of congressional response.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Companies can keep their focus on cutting costs and increasing productivity; they can foster research and innovation; they can offer training and employee incentives to acquire more education and skills.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	On the one hand, an inverted yield curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent years--reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases--could temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve as an indicator of future economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The labor force participation rate, along with the employment-to-population ratio, increased, on net, in recent months.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	These inferences are supported by some empirical evidence.10 On the other hand, the increased liquidity of home equity may lead consumer spending to respond more than in past years to changes in the values of their homes; some evidence does suggest that the correlation of consumption and house prices is higher in countries, like the United States, that have more sophisticated mortgage markets (Calza, Monacelli, and Stracca, 2007).	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Participants expected that, with further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, economic activity would expand at a solid rate during the remainder of this year and a moderate pace in the medium term, and that labor market conditions would remain strong.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A concern that one might have about price-level targeting, as opposed to more conventional inflation targeting, is that it requires a short-term inflation rate that is higher than the long-term inflation objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Well, you’re certainly right that we have been over-optimistic about out-year growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The threat to global economic growth and financial stability posed by the fiscal situation in some European nations sparked widespread flight-to-quality flows over most of the intermeeting period.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had projected in April.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Compared with the baseline, the disruption to economic activity was more severe and protracted in this scenario, with real GDP and inflation lower and the unemployment rate higher by the end of the medium-term projection.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Members who preferred to retain an asymmetrical directive agreed that, although there was little likelihood of a further policy change during the intermeeting period, such a directive was the best way to convey their concerns about the risks of rising inflation and the potential need for policy tightening over time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	But, again underscoring an earlier point, this tightness of the labor market has not manifested itself in ongoing escalation of wage inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The Committee then turned to a discussion of the economic and financial outlook and the implementation of monetary policy over the intermeeting period ahead.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	What we really mean is that we would look at—we know that inflation will move around on both sides of the target, and what we say is that we would be equally concerned with inflation persistently above as persistently below the target.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two coequal objectives of maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For example, one—in the long-run, the size of the balance sheet is going to depend on the public’s demand for our liabilities, including currency and reserves.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	On the foreign trade side of the economy, an anticipated firming of economic conditions abroad would provide impetus to real net exports, At the same time, however, imports were expected to rise appreciably in response to the expansion of domestic economic activity and the appreciation of the dollar, and on balance the external sector probably would not be boosting real GDP.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The recent strains in financial markets posed additional downside risks to economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It’s where we always want inflation to be heading.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But speculators rarely succeed in dislodging an exchange rate that is firmly rooted in compatible policies and cost structures.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Yet as research has repeatedly demonstrated, these sorts of fundamentals only explain a small part of the variation in the prices of assets such as equities, long-term Treasury securities, and corporate bonds.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.

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