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Of course, if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal, we would not hesitate to act. | 2,020 | 1 |
Conditions in the commercial paper (CP) market improved over the intermeeting period, likely reflecting recent measures taken in support of this market, greater demand from institutional investors, and the passing of year-end. | 1,996 | 0 |
Members cited greater, albeit still occasional, indications of heightened worker demands in labor negotiations that likely were encouraged in part by ample job opportunities. | 2,009 | 1 |
Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today. | 2,022 | 2 |
A European Central Bank analysis concluded that the release of capital buffers increased headroom for banks relative to not only their regulatory thresholds, but also their internal risk controls, and enabled banks to continue providing credit to households and businesses.6 And of course, monetary policy is focused on restoring price stability in a high-inflation environment. | 1,999 | 1 |
A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. | 1,996 | 0 |
A few members expressed interest in using language specifying a period of time during which the federal funds rate was expected to remain exceptionally low, rather than a calendar date, arguing that such language might be better to indicate a constant stance of monetary policy over time. | 2,019 | 0 |
Together these structural changes would imply that the economy can now operate at a lower unemployment rate and at a higher growth rate than previously without inflationary consequences. | 2,019 | 0 |
The projection for core PCE price inflation in 2008 was raised slightly in response to elevated readings in recent months. | 2,012 | 1 |
Core inflation was then expected to edge down in 2009 as the impetus from prior increases in the prices of imports, energy, and other commodities abated and the margin of slack in resource use widened. | 2,000 | 0 |
Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. | 1,997 | 2 |
Though labor markets were expected to remain relatively tight for some time, the members saw little prospect that inflation would gather significant momentum in coming quarters. | 2,000 | 2 |
Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation. | 1,996 | 1 |
The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. | 2,004 | 2 |
It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy. | 2,000 | 1 |
The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast for economic activity as similar to its normal level over the past 20 years. | 2,021 | 2 |
Labor force participation isn't growing as much as one would expect with the hot job market, but apparently it's growing enough to keep the job creation machine humming. | 1,998 | 2 |
A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent. | 1,999 | 0 |
Members agreed that their policy decisions would remain data dependent, and they continued to include wording in the statement noting that if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely occur sooner than currently anticipated, and, similarly, that if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range would likely occur later than currently anticipated. | 1,998 | 2 |
Moreover, most members saw substantial downside risks to the economic outlook and judged that a rate reduction at this meeting would provide valuable additional insurance against an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity. | 2,011 | 0 |
Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction. | 2,007 | 2 |
Nonetheless, if the influence of globalization on inflation is as substantial as many claim, we might have expected the standard model to have had difficulty in predicting recent inflation trends. | 1,999 | 2 |
The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to about 2-1/2 percent in 2009 and 2010. | 2,020 | 2 |
Profit margins have been running a little higher this year than last, aided importantly by strong growth in labor productivity. | 2,001 | 0 |
It was also noted that the weakness in homebuilding along with the continued rise in house prices suggested that supply constraints were also weighing on construction activity. | 2,020 | 1 |
The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective. | 1,999 | 2 |
My fellow governors and I routinely receive from our staff a translation of the term structure of Treasury yields into implied forward rates, volatility inferred from options prices, and paths for expected monetary policy action consistent with futures prices. | 2,021 | 2 |
It was generally agreed that developments relating to energy would continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the near term, including the passthrough or indirect effects of higher oil prices on core measures of inflation. | 2,020 | 1 |
Apart from notably adverse business sentiment and disappointing growth in sales and profits, factors that were curbing capital expenditures cited by members included persisting capital overhangs stemming from what were now seen as excessive earlier buildups in equipment and software and substantial idle capacity in many industrial and commercial structures. | 2,015 | 0 |
Subsequently, the expected future path of monetary policy dropped amid increasing concerns about the health of financial institutions. | 1,999 | 0 |
Because equity valuations may pose asymmetric risks to the economic forecast, the implied optimal responses of policy to changes in asset prices may be nonlinear. | 2,003 | 2 |
Of course, many other factors also influence inflation, and some of these provide other possible explanations for the recent changes in inflation dynamics. | 2,002 | 2 |
Inflation continued to climb in June, reaching 9.1 percent as measured by the consumer price index. | 2,005 | 1 |
Consumer sentiment remains solid, and the employment picture is positive. | 2,019 | 1 |
Reserve market conditions associated with this directive had been expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | 2,012 | 2 |
A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year. | 2,005 | 2 |
As was highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure likely understates the extent of unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the unemployment rate by about 3 percentage points. | 2,017 | 0 |
In contrast, CRE loan growth at banks was weak in July and August, likely partly driven by the recovery of CMBS markets. | 2,018 | 2 |
This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | 2,015 | 2 |
With longer-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, changes in commodity and import prices expected to be modest, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, inflation was forecast to be subdued through 2015. | 1,999 | 2 |
And, and those are—that’s again—that goes to keeping this episode as short as it can be and avoiding unnecessary business bankruptcies, unnecessary household bankruptcies, and unnecessary long-term stays of unemployment or supporting people through them so that they can maintain their financial footing and their lives and be able to go back to work in a productive way. | 2,015 | 0 |
Three Asset-Price-Bust Episodes Let us first examine the U.K. recession of 1974. | 2,007 | 2 |
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to expand through July and the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 4. | 2,010 | 1 |
Indeed, given the externalities involved, it seems plausible that a monopoly central bank that issued fiat money would not respond optimally to crises (it would charge too much for liquidity) or to cyclical variations (it would be maximizing the present discounted value of its seigniorage income rather than minimizing some weighted sum of discounted inflation and output losses). | 2,006 | 2 |
The associated declines in wealth could amplify the effects on economic activity, which could have further knock-on effects on financial markets. | 2,006 | 0 |
Pressures on resources would rise as the anticipated upturn and possible above-trend growth brought the economy closer to full capacity utilization. | 1,996 | 1 |
So I, you know, I’m—I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period. | 2,020 | 1 |
November 01, 2006 Community Development Financial Institutions: Promoting Economic Growth and Opportunity Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the Opportunity Finance Network’s Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. Share Good afternoon and thank you for inviting me to speak to your annual conference. | 2,005 | 2 |
Though widely anticipated even before the actions of October, the recession and retrenchment in employment that followed those actions resulted in pressures on the Federal Reserve to reverse course. | 2,007 | 0 |
Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices. | 2,005 | 1 |
In contrast, some other participants judged that the economy had not yet reached maximum employment. | 2,018 | 0 |
Reinforcing this outlook was recent evidence of somewhat faster than anticipated productivity growth, the prospect that world economic conditions would hold down energy prices, and a sharp drop in near-term inflation expectations of households as reported in recent surveys. | 2,012 | 0 |
(4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? | 1,999 | 2 |
However, in the view of most members, the outlook for both economic activity and price pressures remained very uncertain, and thus the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear. | 2,014 | 2 |
Most participants remarked that the standard of "substantial further progress" had been met with regard to the Committee's price-stability goal or that it was likely to be met soon. | 2,007 | 1 |
Over the medium term, participants expected strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. | 2,012 | 0 |
Some restraint on aggregate demand would come from other sectors of the economy--notably government spending, net exports, housing, and perhaps business inventories. | 2,017 | 2 |
Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable, but some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. | 1,999 | 1 |
The behavior of inflation had been unexpectedly benign for an extended period of time for reasons that were not fully understood. | 2,009 | 2 |
The Chairman testifies frequently before the Congress, with the one-year record being twenty-five appearances in 1995, although only seven were directly about monetary policy. | 2,005 | 2 |
When interest rates increase, prices will undoubtedly adjust to some extent--in some cases simply by rising less rapidly than they would otherwise--and debt-service obligations will move up. | 2,007 | 1 |
Several members reiterated that business spending was the critical factor that would govern to a substantial degree the timing and extent of the acceleration in overall economic activity. | 2,010 | 2 |
Stock prices in the basic materials and industrial sectors underperformed the broader market, reportedly reflecting an increase in trade tensions with China. | 2,002 | 2 |
Specifically, the projections converged on CPI inflation rates of 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in 1997 and 2-1/2 to 3 percent in 1998. | 2,012 | 2 |
With regards to inflation, the median inflation projection of FOMC participants is 2.4 percent this year and declines to 2 percent next year before moving back up to 2.1 percent in 2023. | 2,005 | 2 |
The available data for October suggested that the contribution of the change in net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would be much less negative than the drag of nearly 2 percentage points in the third quarter. | 2,009 | 2 |
U. S. real GDP was forecast to plummet and the unemployment rate to soar in the second quarter of this year. | 2,015 | 0 |
Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit. | 2,020 | 1 |
We said that we would "aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time" to ensure that it averages 2 percent over time and that inflation expectations stay anchored. | 2,003 | 0 |
With the Committee in the process of reviewing its monetary policy strategies and communication, and no additional accommodation being provided at this meeting, a few members indicated that they could support the Committee's decision even though they had not favored recent policy actions. | 2,007 | 2 |
Consumer credit jumped in May and remained strong in June, reflecting a rebound in credit card balances and continued robust growth in auto loans. | 2,006 | 2 |
Measures of inflation compensation were little changed on net. | 2,006 | 2 |
Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them. | 2,008 | 2 |
Many potential inflation targeters ask, "Why not zero?" | 1,999 | 2 |
The drop in the unemployment rate over the past year, while welcome and significant, could overstate the degree of improvement in labor market conditions, in part because of the decline in the labor force participation rate. | 2,011 | 2 |
Consumer price inflation had remained relatively subdued over the summer months. | 2,012 | 0 |
Confirming that variations in growth rates of liquidity (especially unusual changes in liquidity growth that could be called excessive) systematically lead to wide swings in real asset prices requires further theoretical investigation and more empirical support. | 2,019 | 2 |
Whether one looks at trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratios, equity risk premiums, or option prices, there is little basis for arguing that markets show excessive optimism about future returns. | 1,999 | 2 |
These members indicated that the economic outlook remained positive and that they anticipated, under an unchanged policy stance, continued strong labor market conditions and solid growth in activity, with inflation gradually moving up to the Committee's 2 percent objective. | 2,002 | 2 |
The staff's forecast for inflation was basically unchanged from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting. | 2,021 | 2 |
In addition to u* and r*, an important input into any monetary policy assessment is the state of inflation expectations. | 2,021 | 2 |
It would have been difficult for the Committee to put forward a 7 percent unemployment goal when the current program started and unemployment was 8.1 percent; this would have involved a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of asset purchases required to reach this goal. | 2,004 | 0 |
While I will carefully monitor inflation expectations, it will be important to see a sustained improvement in actual inflation to meet our average inflation goal. | 1,999 | 0 |
That said, our model accords the greatest roles to increased productivity growth, which has made the United States a magnet for foreign saving, and to the slump in foreign domestic demand, which has led to an excess of saving in those economies. | 2,007 | 0 |
Many participants noted that they expected household spending to be a primary contributor to economic growth going forward. | 2,002 | 2 |
In addition, some of the correlation may reflect the effect of the response of monetary policy to exchange rate developments. | 2,000 | 2 |
Meeting Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants-the four members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks-provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011. | 2,003 | 2 |
For many years, forecasters could assume a modest, but stable, trend productivity growth rate and fairly predictable growth in the labor force. | 2,020 | 2 |
By the same token, the rate of price inflation was lower than had been reported, consistent with the findings of a number of studies of distortions in published price data. | 2,022 | 2 |
With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target. | 2,017 | 1 |
Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months, but also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations. | 1,998 | 1 |
Indeed, such hearings used to be a regular feature in the weeks leading up to semiannual monetary policy hearings. | 2,005 | 2 |
The key to explaining why price stability promotes stability in both output and employment is the realization that, when inflation itself is well-controlled, then the public's expectations of inflation will also be low and stable. | 2,004 | 1 |
They also agreed that the inflation situation seemed to have improved slightly and judged that it was no longer appropriate to indicate that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures had yet to be shown. | 2,007 | 2 |
In the circumstances, most members endorsed a proposal to delete as no longer necessary the previous summary statement relating to the risks to growth and inflation taken together. | 1,996 | 2 |
Readings on consumer price inflation had picked up somewhat mainly because of increases in oil and gasoline prices earlier in the year. | 2,008 | 1 |
The staff's June projections for the unemployment rate, real GDP growth, and inflation over the next few years were all a little lower, on balance, than those in its March forecast. | 2,021 | 2 |
Productivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls in recessions. | 2,001 | 2 |
Many observed, however, that a favorable outcome to the hostilities in the Middle East and lower oil prices in line with quotations in futures markets should generate a positive response in equity markets, boost consumer sentiment, and foster a rebound in consumer spending as the year progressed. | 2,002 | 1 |
It is important to recognize the importance of moving interest rates in response to changing conditions and the potential for destabilizing policy when policy resists the natural tendency for interest rates to rise during cyclical upswings, especially when the economy is near its potential. | 1,999 | 1 |
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