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Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | so it's not a question of the human forgetting | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:51.300 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and the AI somehow trying to get advantage | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:53.460 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | of better memory. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:55.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So what was that like? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:56.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I mean, that was an incredible accomplishment. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:57.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So what did it feel like before the event? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:06:59.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Did you have doubt, hope? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:02.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Where was your confidence at? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:05.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Yeah, that's great. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:08.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So great question. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:09.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So 18 months earlier, I had organized a similar brains | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:10.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | versus AI competition with a previous AI called Cloudyco | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:14.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and we couldn't beat the humans. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:17.840 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So this time around, it was only 18 months later. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:20.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And I knew that this new AI, Libratus, was way stronger, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:23.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but it's hard to say how you'll do against the top humans | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:27.820 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | before you try. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:31.360 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So I thought we had about a 50, 50 shot. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:32.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And the international betting sites put us | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:35.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | as a four to one or five to one underdog. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:38.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So it's kind of interesting that people really believe | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:41.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | in people and over AI, not just people. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:44.700 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | People don't just over believe in themselves, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:48.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but they have overconfidence in other people as well | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:50.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | compared to the performance of AI. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:53.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And yeah, so we were a four to one or five to one underdog. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:55.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And even after three days of beating the humans in a row, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:07:59.120 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | we were still 50, 50 on the international betting sites. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:02.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Do you think there's something special and magical | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:06.520 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | about poker and the way people think about it, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:09.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | in the sense you have, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:12.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I mean, even in chess, there's no Hollywood movies. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:14.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Poker is the star of many movies. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:17.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And there's this feeling that certain human facial | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:21.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | expressions and body language, eye movement, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:26.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | all these tells are critical to poker. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:30.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Like you can look into somebody's soul | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:33.360 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and understand their betting strategy and so on. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:35.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So that's probably why, possibly, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:37.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | do you think that is why people have a confidence | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:41.520 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that humans will outperform? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:43.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Because AI systems cannot, in this construct, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:45.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | perceive these kinds of tells. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:48.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | They're only looking at betting patterns | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:51.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and nothing else, betting patterns and statistics. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:53.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So what's more important to you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:08:58.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | if you step back on human players, human versus human? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:02.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | What's the role of these tells, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:06.120 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | of these ideas that we romanticize? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:08.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Yeah, so I'll split it into two parts. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:11.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So one is why do humans trust humans more than AI | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:15.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and have overconfidence in humans? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:20.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I think that's not really related to the tell question. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:22.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | It's just that they've seen these top players, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:25.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | how good they are, and they're really fantastic. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:28.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So it's just hard to believe that an AI could beat them. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:31.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So I think that's where that comes from. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:36.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And that's actually maybe a more general lesson about AI. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:37.680 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | That until you've seen it overperform a human, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:40.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | it's hard to believe that it could. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:43.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But then the tells, a lot of these top players, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:45.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | they're so good at hiding tells | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:50.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that among the top players, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:52.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | it's actually not really worth it | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:56.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | for them to invest a lot of effort | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:09:59.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | trying to find tells in each other | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:01.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | because they're so good at hiding them. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:03.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So yes, at the kind of Friday evening game, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:05.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | tells are gonna be a huge thing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:09.840 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | You can read other people. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:11.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And if you're a good reader, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:13.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | you'll read them like an open book. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:14.120 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But at the top levels of poker now, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:16.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | the tells become a much smaller and smaller aspect | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:18.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | of the game as you go to the top levels. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:21.960 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | The amount of strategies, the amount of possible actions | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:24.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | is very large, 10 to the power of 100 plus. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:28.120 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So there has to be some, I've read a few of the papers | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:35.400 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | related, it has to form some abstractions | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:37.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | of various hands and actions. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:42.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So what kind of abstractions are effective | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:44.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | for the game of poker? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:47.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Yeah, so you're exactly right. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:49.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So when you go from a game tree that's 10 to the 161, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:50.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | especially in an imperfect information game, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:55.360 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | it's way too large to solve directly, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:10:58.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | even with our fastest equilibrium finding algorithms. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:00.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So you wanna abstract it first. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:03.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And abstraction in games is much trickier | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:07.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | than abstraction in MDPs or other single agent settings. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:10.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Because you have these abstraction pathologies | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:15.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that if I have a finer grained abstraction, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:17.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | the strategy that I can get from that for the real game | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:19.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | might actually be worse than the strategy | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:23.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I can get from the coarse grained abstraction. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:25.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So you have to be very careful. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:27.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Now the kinds of abstractions, just to zoom out, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:28.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | we're talking about, there's the hands abstractions | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:31.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and then there's betting strategies. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:34.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Yeah, betting actions, yeah. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:11:37.280 |
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