episode stringlengths 45 100 | text stringlengths 1 528 | timestamp_link stringlengths 56 56 |
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Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | there's a set of different states that we might be in, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:20:55.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but I don't know which one we're in. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:20:59.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Nash equilibrium tells me exactly | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:01.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | what is the probability distribution | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:03.400 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | over those real world states in my mind. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:05.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | How does Nash equilibrium give you that distribution? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:08.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So why? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:11.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I'll do a simple example. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:12.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So you know the game Rock, Paper, Scissors? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:13.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So we can draw it as player one moves first | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:16.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and then player two moves. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:20.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But of course, it's important that player two | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:21.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | doesn't know what player one moved, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:24.520 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | otherwise player two would win every time. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:26.400 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So we can draw that as an information set | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:28.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | where player one makes one of three moves first, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:30.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and then there's an information set for player two. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:33.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So player two doesn't know which of those nodes | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:36.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | the world is in. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:39.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But once we know the strategy for player one, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:41.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Nash equilibrium will say that you play 1 3rd Rock, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:44.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | 1 3rd Paper, 1 3rd Scissors. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:47.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | From that, I can derive my beliefs on the information set | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:49.400 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that they're 1 3rd, 1 3rd, 1 3rd. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:52.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So Bayes gives you that. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:54.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Bayes gives you. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:56.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But is that specific to a particular player, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:57.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | or is it something you quickly update | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:21:59.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | with the specific player? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:03.960 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | No, the game theory isn't really player specific. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:05.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So that's also why we don't need any data. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:08.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | We don't need any history | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:11.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | how these particular humans played in the past | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:12.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | or how any AI or human had played before. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:14.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | It's all about rationality. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:17.400 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So the AI just thinks about | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:20.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | what would a rational opponent do? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:22.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And what would I do if I am rational? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:24.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And that's the idea of game theory. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:28.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So it's really a data free, opponent free approach. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:31.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So it comes from the design of the game | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:35.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | as opposed to the design of the player. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:37.680 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Exactly, there's no opponent modeling per se. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:40.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | I mean, we've done some work on combining opponent modeling | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:43.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | with game theory so you can exploit weak players even more, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:45.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but that's another strand. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:48.840 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And in Librarus, we didn't turn that on. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:50.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So I decided that these players are too good. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:52.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And when you start to exploit an opponent, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:55.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | you typically open yourself up to exploitation. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:22:58.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And these guys have so few holes to exploit | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:01.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | and they're world's leading experts in counter exploitation. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:04.000 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So I decided that we're not gonna turn that stuff on. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:06.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Actually, I saw a few of your papers exploiting opponents. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:09.200 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | It sounded very interesting to explore. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:12.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Do you think there's room for exploitation | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:15.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | generally outside of Librarus? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:17.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Is there a subject or people differences | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:19.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that could be exploited, maybe not just in poker, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:24.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but in general interactions and negotiations, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:27.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | all these other domains that you're considering? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:30.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Yeah, definitely. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:33.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | We've done some work on that. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:34.680 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And I really like the work at hybrid digested too. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:35.920 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So you figure out what would a rational opponent do. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:39.880 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And by the way, that's safe in these zero sum games, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:43.440 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | two player zero sum games, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:46.280 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | because if the opponent does something irrational, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:47.480 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | yes, it might throw off my beliefs, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:49.560 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but the amount that the player can gain | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:53.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | by throwing off my belief is always less | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:55.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | than they lose by playing poorly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:23:59.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So it's safe. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:01.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But still, if somebody's weak as a player, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:03.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | you might wanna play differently to exploit them more. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:06.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So you can think about it this way, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:10.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | a game theoretic strategy is unbeatable, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:12.040 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | but it doesn't maximally beat the other opponent. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:15.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So the winnings per hand might be better | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:19.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | with a different strategy. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:22.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And the hybrid is that you start | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:24.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | from a game theoretic approach. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:25.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | And then as you gain data about the opponent | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:27.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | in certain parts of the game tree, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:30.840 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | then in those parts of the game tree, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:32.600 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | you start to tweak your strategy more and more | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:34.360 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | towards exploitation while still staying fairly close | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:37.800 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | to the game theoretic strategy | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:40.960 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | so as to not open yourself up to exploitation too much. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:42.160 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | How do you do that? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:46.840 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Do you try to vary up strategies, make it unpredictable? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:48.320 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | It's like, what is it, tit for tat strategies | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:53.640 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | in Prisoner's Dilemma or? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:24:57.520 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Well, that's a repeated game. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:00.720 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Repeated games. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:03.240 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | Simple Prisoner's Dilemma, repeated games. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:04.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But even there, there's no proof that says | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:06.520 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | that that's the best thing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:08.760 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | But experimentally, it actually does well. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:10.080 |
Tuomas Sandholm: Poker and Game Theory | Lex Fridman Podcast #12 | So what kind of games are there, first of all? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0012-large.html#00:25:13.280 |
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