episode
stringlengths
45
100
text
stringlengths
1
528
timestamp_link
stringlengths
56
56
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
But there's no one thing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:13.840
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
There's actually like thousands of little things and just like polishing functionality
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:15.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
and making sure that it handles, you know, every version and possible
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:19.760
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
permutation of a situation by either applying more deep learning systems or
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:23.280
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
just by, you know, adding more test coverage or new scenarios that we
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:30.160
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
develop against and just grinding on that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:34.400
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
We're sort of in the unsexy phase of development right now, which is doing
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:37.040
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
the real engineering work that it takes to go from prototype to production.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:40.560
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
You're basically scaling the grinding, sort of taking seriously that the
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:44.000
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
process of all those edge cases, both with human experts and machine
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:49.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
learning methods to cover all those situations.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:54.320
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Yeah.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:59.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And the exciting thing for me is I don't think that grinding ever stops because
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:44:59.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
there's a moment in time where you've crossed that threshold of human
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:03.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
performance and become superhuman.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:08.080
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
But there's no reason, there's no first principles reason that AV capability
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:09.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
will tap out anywhere near humans.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:13.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Like there's no reason it couldn't be 20 times better, whether that's, you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:16.080
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
know, just better driving or safer driving or more comfortable driving or
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:19.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
even a thousand times better given enough time.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:22.960
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And we intend to basically chase that, you know, forever to build the best
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:25.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
possible product.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:30.560
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Better and better and better.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:31.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And always new edge cases come up and new experiences.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:32.480
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So, and you want to automate that process as much as possible.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:34.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So what do you think in general in society?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:40.000
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
When do you think we may have hundreds of thousands of fully autonomous
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:43.840
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
vehicles driving around?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:47.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So first of all, predictions, nobody knows the future.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:48.640
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
You're a part of the leading people trying to define that future, but even
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:52.000
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
then you still don't know.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:55.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
But if you think about hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so a significant
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:45:56.960
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
fraction of vehicles in major cities are autonomous.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:02.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Do you think, are you with Rodney Brooks, who is 2050 and beyond, or are you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:05.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
more with Elon Musk, who is, we should have had that two years ago?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:12.960
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Well, I mean, I'd love to have it two years ago, but we're not there yet.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:19.040
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So I guess the way I would think about that is let's flip that question
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:24.640
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
around.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:29.440
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So what would prevent you to reach hundreds of thousands of vehicles?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:29.760
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And that's a good, that's a good rephrasing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:34.480
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Yeah.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:36.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So the, I'd say the, it seems the consensus among the people developing
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:37.120
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
self driving cars today is to sort of start with some form of an easier
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:47.120
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
environment, whether it means, you know, lacking inclement weather or, you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:51.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
know, mostly sunny or whatever it is.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:55.760
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And then add, add capability for more complex situations over time.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:46:57.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And so if you're only able to deploy in areas that meet sort of your
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:02.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
criteria or the current domain, you know, operating domain of the
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:08.400
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
software you developed, that may put a cap on how many cities you could
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:11.760
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
deploy in.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:14.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
But then as those restrictions start to fall away, like maybe you add
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:16.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
capability to drive really well and safely in heavy rain or snow, you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:20.320
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
know, that, that probably opens up the market by two, two or three fold
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:24.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
in terms of the cities you can expand into and so on.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:28.160
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And so the real question is, you know, I know today if we wanted to, we
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:31.040
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
could produce that, that many autonomous vehicles, but we wouldn't be
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:35.120
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
able to make use of all of them yet.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:38.640
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Cause we would sort of saturate the demand in the cities in which we
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:39.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
would want to operate initially.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:43.440
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So if I were to guess like what the timeline is for those things falling
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:46.480
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
away and reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles, I would say that
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:49.280
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
thousands of vehicles, maybe a range is better, I would say less than
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:53.040
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
five years, less than five years.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:57.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Yeah.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:58.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And of course you're working hard to make that happen.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:47:59.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So you started two companies that were eventually acquired for each
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:03.520
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
four billion dollars.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:07.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So you're a pretty good person to ask, what does it take to build a
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:09.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
successful startup?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:12.560
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
I think there's, there's sort of survivor bias here a little bit, but
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:15.280
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
I can try to find some common threads for the things that worked for
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:19.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
me, which is, you know, in, in both of these companies, I was really
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:21.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
passionate about the core technology.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:27.520
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
I actually like, you know, lay awake at night thinking about these
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:29.040
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
problems and how to solve them.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:31.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And I think that's helpful because when you start a business, there
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:33.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
are like to this day, there are these crazy ups and downs.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:36.160
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
Like one day you think the business is just on, you're just on top of
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:40.800
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
the world and unstoppable.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:43.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And the next day you think, okay, this is all going to end, you know,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:44.320
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
it's just, it's just going south and it's going to be over tomorrow.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:47.360
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And and so I think like having a true passion that you can fall back
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:49.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
on and knowing that you would be doing it, even if you weren't getting
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:55.280
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
paid for it, helps you weather those, those tough times.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:48:57.600
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So that's one thing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:00.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
I think the other one is really good people.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:01.680
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So I've always been surrounded by really good cofounders that are
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:05.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
logical thinkers are always pushing their limits and have very high
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:08.640
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
levels of integrity.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:11.920
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
So that's Dan Kahn and my current company and actually his brother and
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:12.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
a couple other guys for Justin TV and Twitch.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:16.320
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
And then I think the last thing is just I guess persistence or
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:18.720
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
perseverance, like, and, and that, that can apply to sticking to sort
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:24.000
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
of, or having conviction around the original premise of your idea and
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:28.880
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
sticking around to do all the, you know, the unsexy work to actually
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:32.960
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
make it come to fruition, including dealing with, you know, whatever
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:36.400
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
it is that you, that you're not passionate about, whether that's
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:41.200
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
finance or, or HR or, or operations or those things, as long as you
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:43.280
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
are grinding away and working towards, you know, that North star
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:48.320
Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
for your business, whatever it is, and you don't give up and you're
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0014-large.html#00:49:51.920