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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So mobile phones, Android, all those things.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0008-large.html#00:05:19.660
Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There are, the world is in numerous,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
there are many, many people in the world,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
people really have needs.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They really will use these platforms
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and you can build big businesses on top of them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So it's interesting.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So when you see a piece of technology,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
now you think, what will this technology look like
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
when it's in the hands of a billion people?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
That's right.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So an example would be that the market is so competitive now
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that if you can't figure out a way
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
for something to have a million users or a billion users,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
it probably is not going to be successful
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because something else will become the general platform
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and your idea will become a lost idea
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or a specialized service with relatively few users.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So it's a path to generality.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's a path to general platform use.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's a path to broad applicability.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Now there are plenty of good businesses that are tiny.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So luxury goods, for example.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
But if you want to have an impact at scale,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
you have to look for things which are of common value,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
common pricing, common distribution
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and solve common problems.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They're problems that everyone has.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And by the way, people have lots of problems.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Information, medicine, health, education and so forth.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Work on those problems.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Like you said, you're a big fan of the middle class.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Because there's so many of them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There's so many of them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
By definition.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So any product, any thing that has a huge impact
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and improves their lives is a great business decision
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and it's just good for society.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And there's nothing wrong with starting off in the high end
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
as long as you have a plan to get to the middle class.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There's nothing wrong with starting with a specialized
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
market in order to learn and to build and to fund things.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So you start with a luxury market
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to build a general purpose market.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
But if you define yourself as only a narrow market,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
someone else can come along with a general purpose market
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that can push you to the corner,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
can restrict the scale of operation,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
can force you to be a lesser impact than you might be.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So it's very important to think in terms of broad businesses
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and broad impact.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Even if you start in a little corner somewhere.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So as you look to the 70s but also in the decades to come
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and you saw computers, did you see them as tools
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or was there a little element of another entity?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I remember a quote saying AI began with our dream
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to create the gods.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Is there a feeling when you wrote that program
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that you were creating another entity,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
giving life to something?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I wish I could say otherwise,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but I simply found the technology platforms so exciting.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
That's what I was focused on.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I think the majority of the people that I've worked with,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and there are a few exceptions, Steve Jobs being an example,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
really saw this as a great technological play.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I think relatively few of the technical people understood
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
the scale of its impact.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So I used NCP, which is a predecessor to TCPIP.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It just made sense to connect things.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We didn't think of it in terms of the internet
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and then companies and then Facebook and then Twitter
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and then politics and so forth.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We never did that build.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We didn't have that vision.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And I think most people, it's a rare person
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
who can see compounding at scale.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Most people can see,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
if you ask people to predict the future,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
they'll give you an answer of six to nine months
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or 12 months,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because that's about as far as people can imagine.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
But there's an old saying,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which actually was attributed to a professor at MIT
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
a long time ago,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that we overestimate what can be done in one year
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and we underestimate what can be done in a decade.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And there's a great deal of evidence
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that these core platforms at hardware and software
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
take a decade, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So think about self driving cars.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Self driving cars were thought about in the 90s.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There were projects around them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
The first DARPA Grand Challenge was roughly 2004.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So that's roughly 15 years ago.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And today we have self driving cars operating
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in a city in Arizona, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's 15 years and we still have a ways to go
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
before they're more generally available.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So you've spoken about the importance,
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