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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they took a poll.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:29.580
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It was really the first time that AI experts worldwide
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:30.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
were polled on this prediction.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And the average poll was 100 years.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
20% believed it would never happen.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And that was the view in 1999.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
80% believed it would happen,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but not within their lifetimes.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There's been so many advances in AI
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that the poll of AI experts has come down over the years.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So a year ago, something called Meticulous,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:01.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which you may be aware of,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
assesses different types of experts on the future.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:07.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
They again assessed what AI experts then felt.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And they were saying 2042.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
For the Turing test.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
For the Turing test.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So it's coming down.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And I was still saying 2029.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:23.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
A few weeks ago, they again did another poll,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:26.320
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and it was 2030.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:30.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So AI experts now basically agree with me.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:32.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I haven't changed at all, I've stayed with 2029.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:37.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And AI experts now agree with me,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:42.820
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but they didn't agree at first.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:44.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So Alan Turing formulated the Turing test,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and...
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Right, now, what he said was very little about it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:50.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, the 1950 paper
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:54.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
where he had articulated the Turing test,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:55.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
there's like a few lines that talk about the Turing test.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it really wasn't very clear how to administer it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:06.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And he said if they did it in like 15 minutes,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that would be sufficient,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which I don't really think is the case.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
These large language models now,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
some people are convinced by it already.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, you can talk to it and have a conversation with it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:25.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
You can actually talk to it for hours.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So it requires a little more depth.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There's some problems with large language models
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which we can talk about.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But some people are convinced by the Turing test.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:41.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Now, if somebody passes the Turing test,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
what are the implications of that?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Does that mean that they're sentient,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that they're conscious or not?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's not necessarily clear what the implications are.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:56.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Anyway, I believe 2029, that's six, seven years from now,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:00.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
we'll have something that passes the Turing test
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and a valid Turing test,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
meaning it goes for hours, not just a few minutes.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Can you speak to that a little bit?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
What is your formulation of the Turing test?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
You've proposed a very difficult version
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of the Turing test, so what does that look like?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Basically, it's just to assess it over several hours
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and also have a human judge that's fairly sophisticated
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
on what computers can do and can't do.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
If you take somebody who's not that sophisticated
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
or even an average engineer,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
they may not really assess various aspects of it.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So you really want the human to challenge the system.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Exactly, exactly.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
On its ability to do things
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
like common sense reasoning, perhaps.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
That's actually a key problem with large language models.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
They don't do these kinds of tests
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that would involve assessing chains of reasoning,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but you can lose track of that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
If you talk to them,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
they actually can talk to you pretty well
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and you can be convinced by it,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but it's somebody that would really convince you
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that it's a human, whatever that takes.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Maybe it would take days or weeks,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but it would really convince you that it's human.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Large language models can appear that way.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
You can read conversations and they appear pretty good.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There are some problems with it.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It doesn't do math very well.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
You can ask how many legs did 10 elephants have
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they'll tell you, well, okay,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
each elephant has four legs
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and it's 10 elephants, so it's 40 legs.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And you go, okay, that's pretty good.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
How many legs do 11 elephants have?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And they don't seem to understand the question.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Do all humans understand that question?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
No, that's the key thing.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, how advanced a human do you want it to be?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But we do expect a human
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to be able to do multi chain reasoning,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to be able to take a few facts
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and put them together, not perfectly.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we see that in a lot of polls
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that people don't do that perfectly at all.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So it's not very well defined,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but it's something where it really would convince you
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that it's a human.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:44.320