episode stringlengths 45 100 | text stringlengths 1 528 | timestamp_link stringlengths 56 56 |
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and they took a poll. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:29.580 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | It was really the first time that AI experts worldwide | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:30.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | were polled on this prediction. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:34.240 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And the average poll was 100 years. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:37.720 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | 20% believed it would never happen. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:41.420 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And that was the view in 1999. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:44.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | 80% believed it would happen, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:48.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but not within their lifetimes. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:50.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | There's been so many advances in AI | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:53.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that the poll of AI experts has come down over the years. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:02:56.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So a year ago, something called Meticulous, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:01.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which you may be aware of, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:05.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | assesses different types of experts on the future. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:07.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | They again assessed what AI experts then felt. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:11.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And they were saying 2042. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:16.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | For the Turing test. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:18.940 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | For the Turing test. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:20.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So it's coming down. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:22.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And I was still saying 2029. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:23.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | A few weeks ago, they again did another poll, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:26.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and it was 2030. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:30.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So AI experts now basically agree with me. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:32.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I haven't changed at all, I've stayed with 2029. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:37.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And AI experts now agree with me, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:42.820 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but they didn't agree at first. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:44.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So Alan Turing formulated the Turing test, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:46.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and... | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:50.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Right, now, what he said was very little about it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:50.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I mean, the 1950 paper | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:54.480 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | where he had articulated the Turing test, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:55.920 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | there's like a few lines that talk about the Turing test. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:03:59.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And it really wasn't very clear how to administer it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:06.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And he said if they did it in like 15 minutes, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:12.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that would be sufficient, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:16.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which I don't really think is the case. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:17.680 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | These large language models now, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:20.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | some people are convinced by it already. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:22.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I mean, you can talk to it and have a conversation with it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:25.560 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | You can actually talk to it for hours. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:28.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So it requires a little more depth. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:31.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | There's some problems with large language models | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:35.360 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | which we can talk about. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:38.120 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | But some people are convinced by the Turing test. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:41.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Now, if somebody passes the Turing test, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:46.460 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | what are the implications of that? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:50.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Does that mean that they're sentient, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:52.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that they're conscious or not? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:53.720 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | It's not necessarily clear what the implications are. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:04:56.280 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Anyway, I believe 2029, that's six, seven years from now, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:00.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | we'll have something that passes the Turing test | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:07.640 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and a valid Turing test, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:10.360 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | meaning it goes for hours, not just a few minutes. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:12.480 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Can you speak to that a little bit? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:15.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | What is your formulation of the Turing test? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:16.600 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | You've proposed a very difficult version | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:21.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | of the Turing test, so what does that look like? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:23.180 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Basically, it's just to assess it over several hours | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:25.420 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and also have a human judge that's fairly sophisticated | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:30.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | on what computers can do and can't do. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:36.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | If you take somebody who's not that sophisticated | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:40.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | or even an average engineer, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:43.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | they may not really assess various aspects of it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:48.360 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So you really want the human to challenge the system. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:52.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Exactly, exactly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:55.680 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | On its ability to do things | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:57.040 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | like common sense reasoning, perhaps. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:05:58.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | That's actually a key problem with large language models. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:00.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | They don't do these kinds of tests | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:04.680 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that would involve assessing chains of reasoning, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:08.080 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but you can lose track of that. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:17.400 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | If you talk to them, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:18.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | they actually can talk to you pretty well | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:20.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and you can be convinced by it, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:22.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but it's somebody that would really convince you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:24.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that it's a human, whatever that takes. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:27.400 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Maybe it would take days or weeks, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:32.200 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but it would really convince you that it's human. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:34.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Large language models can appear that way. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:40.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | You can read conversations and they appear pretty good. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:45.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | There are some problems with it. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:49.760 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | It doesn't do math very well. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:52.260 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | You can ask how many legs did 10 elephants have | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:55.000 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and they'll tell you, well, okay, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:06:58.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | each elephant has four legs | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:00.020 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and it's 10 elephants, so it's 40 legs. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:01.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And you go, okay, that's pretty good. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:03.700 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | How many legs do 11 elephants have? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:05.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And they don't seem to understand the question. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:07.960 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | Do all humans understand that question? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:11.520 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | No, that's the key thing. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:14.160 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | I mean, how advanced a human do you want it to be? | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:15.880 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | But we do expect a human | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:19.440 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | to be able to do multi chain reasoning, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:21.360 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | to be able to take a few facts | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:24.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | and put them together, not perfectly. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:26.320 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | And we see that in a lot of polls | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:29.840 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that people don't do that perfectly at all. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:32.800 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | So it's not very well defined, | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:39.220 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | but it's something where it really would convince you | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:42.020 |
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321 | that it's a human. | https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:07:44.320 |
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