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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we ride along.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:38:47.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Or do you ultimately see it as...
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:38:48.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And we ride along, but a lot of people don't see that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
They say, well, you've got humans and you've got machines
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and there's no way we can ultimately compete with humans.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And you can already see that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Lee Soudal, who's like the best Go player in the world,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:39:02.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
says he's not gonna play Go anymore.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Because playing Go for a human,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that was like the ultimate in intelligence
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because no one else could do that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But now a machine can actually go way beyond him.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:39:18.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And so he says, well, there's no point playing it anymore.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
That may be more true for games than it is for life.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I think there's a lot of benefit
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to working together with AI in regular life.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So if you were to put a probability on it,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
is it more likely that we merge with AI
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
or AI replaces us?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
A lot of people just think computers come along
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they compete with them.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:39:47.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
We can't really compete and that's the end of it.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
As opposed to them increasing our abilities.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And if you look at most technology,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
it increases our abilities.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:39:59.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, look at the history of work.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Look at what people did 100 years ago.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Does any of that exist anymore?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
People, I mean, if you were to predict
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that all of these jobs would go away
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and would be done by machines,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
people would say, well, there's gonna be,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
no one's gonna have jobs
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and it's gonna be massive unemployment.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But I show in this book that's coming out
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
the amount of people that are working,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
even as a percentage of the population has gone way up.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
We're looking at the x axis year from 1774 to 2024
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and on the y axis, personal income per capita
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in constant dollars and it's growing super linearly.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, it's 2021 constant dollars and it's gone way up.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
That's not what you would predict
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
given that we would predict
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that all these jobs would go away.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But the reason it's gone up is because
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
we've basically enhanced our own capabilities
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
by using these machines
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
as opposed to them just competing with us.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:41:11.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
That's a key way in which we're gonna be able
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to become far smarter than we are now
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
by increasing the number of different parameters
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
we can consider in making a decision.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I was very fortunate, I am very fortunate
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to be able to get a glimpse preview
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
of your upcoming book, Singularity is Nearer.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And one of the themes outside of just discussing
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
the increasing exponential growth of technology,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:41:41.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
one of the themes is that things are getting better
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in all aspects of life.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And you talked just about this.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So one of the things you're saying is with jobs.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So let me just ask about that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There is a big concern that automation,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
especially powerful AI, will get rid of jobs.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There are people who lose jobs.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And as you were saying, the sense is
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
throughout the history of the 20th century,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
automation did not do that ultimately.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And so the question is, will this time be different?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Right, that is the question.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Will this time be different?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it really has to do with how quickly
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
we can merge with this type of intelligence.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Whether Lambda or GPT3 is out there,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and maybe it's overcome some of its key problems,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and we really haven't enhanced human intelligence,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that might be a negative scenario.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But I mean, that's why we create technologies,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to enhance ourselves.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And I believe we will be enhanced
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
when I'm just going to sit here with
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
300 million modules in our neocortex.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
We're going to be able to go beyond that.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Because that's useful, but we can multiply that by 10,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
100, 1,000, a million.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And you might think, well, what's the point of doing that?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's like asking somebody that's never heard music,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
well, what's the value of music?
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, you can't appreciate it until you've created it.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There's some worry that there'll be a wealth disparity.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Class or wealth disparity, only the rich people
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
will be, basically, the rich people
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
will first have access to this kind of thing,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and then because of this kind of thing,
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because the ability to merge
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
will get richer exponentially faster.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And I say that's just like cell phones.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, there's like four billion cell phones
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in the world today.
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Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
In fact, when cell phones first came out,
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