episode
stringlengths
45
100
text
stringlengths
1
528
timestamp_link
stringlengths
56
56
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and enables the British to win the Battle of Britain,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:51.780
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which otherwise absolutely would not have happened
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:55.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
if they hadn't cracked the code using that computer.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:27:57.720
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But that's an exponential graph.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:02.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So a straight line on that graph is exponential growth.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:03.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And you see 80 years of exponential growth.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:07.300
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And I would say about every five years,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:11.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and this happened shortly before the pandemic,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:15.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
people saying, well, they call it Moore's law,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:18.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which is not the correct, because that's not all intel.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:20.680
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
In fact, this started decades before intel was even created.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:25.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It wasn't with transistors formed into a grid.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:29.680
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So it's not just transistor count or transistor size.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:34.140
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Right, it started with relays, then went to vacuum tubes,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:37.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
then went to individual transistors,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:43.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and then to integrated circuits.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:46.720
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And integrated circuits actually starts
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:51.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
like in the middle of this graph.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:54.000
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it has nothing to do with intel.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:56.520
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Intel actually was a key part of this.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:28:58.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But a few years ago, they stopped making the fastest chips.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:02.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But if you take the fastest chip of any technology
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:08.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in that year, you get this kind of graph.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:12.800
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it's definitely continuing for 80 years.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:16.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So you don't think Moore's law, broadly defined, is dead.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:19.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's been declared dead multiple times throughout this process.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:24.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I don't like the term Moore's law,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:29.280
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because it has nothing to do with Moore or with intel.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:31.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But yes, the exponential growth of computing is continuing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:34.740
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It has never stopped.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:41.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
From various sources.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:42.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, it went through World War II,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:43.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
it went through global recessions.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:45.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's just continuing.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:49.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And if you continue that out, along with software gains,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:53.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
which is a whole nother issue,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:29:58.100
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and they really multiply,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:01.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
whatever you get from software gains,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:02.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
you multiply by the computer gains,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:04.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
you get faster and faster speed.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:07.920
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
This is actually the fastest computer models
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:10.940
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that have been created.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:14.320
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And that actually expands roughly twice a year.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:15.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Like, every six months it expands by two.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:19.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
So we're looking at a plot from 2010 to 2022.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:22.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
On the x axis is the publication date of the model,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:28.360
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and perhaps sometimes the actual paper associated with it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:31.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And on the y axis is training, compute, and flops.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:34.240
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And so basically this is looking at the increase
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:40.240
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
in the, not transistors,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:43.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but the computational power of neural networks.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:46.360
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Yes, the computational power that created these models.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:51.500
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And that's doubled every six months.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:55.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Which is even faster than transistor division.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:30:57.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Yeah.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:00.360
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Now actually, since it goes faster than the amount of cost,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:02.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
this has actually become a greater investment
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:06.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to create these.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:10.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But at any rate, by the time we get to 2045,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:12.260
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
we'll be able to multiply our intelligence
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:16.600
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
many millions fold.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:19.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And it's just very hard to imagine what that will be like.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:21.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And that's the singularity where we can't even imagine.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:25.040
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Right, that's why we call it the singularity.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:28.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Because the singularity in physics,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:30.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
something gets sucked into its singularity
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:32.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and you can't tell what's going on in there
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:35.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because no information can get out of it.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:37.780
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
There's various problems with that,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:40.440
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but that's the idea.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:42.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It's too much beyond what we can imagine.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:44.080
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Do you think it's possible we don't notice
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:48.960
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that what the singularity actually feels like
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:52.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
is we just live through it
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:56.360
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
with exponentially increasing cognitive capabilities
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:31:59.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and we almost, because everything's moving so quickly,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:05.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
aren't really able to introspect
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:09.560
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
that our life has changed.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:11.800
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Yeah, but I mean, we will have that much greater capacity
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:13.680
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to understand things, so we should be able to look back.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:17.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Looking at history, understand history.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:20.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But we will need people, basically like you and me,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:23.240
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
to actually think about these things.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:26.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
But we might be distracted
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:29.240
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
by all the other sources of entertainment and fun
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:30.680
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because the exponential power of intellect is growing,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:34.160
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
but also there'll be a lot of fun.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:39.160
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
The amount of ways you can have, you know.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:41.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I mean, we already have a lot of fun with computer games
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:46.160
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
and so on that are really quite remarkable.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:48.440
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
What do you think about the digital world,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:51.400
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
the metaverse, virtual reality?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:54.760
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Will that have a component in this
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:57.640
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
or will most of our advancement be in physical reality?
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:32:59.120
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
Well, that's a little bit like Second Life,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:01.840
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
although the Second Life actually didn't work very well
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:04.480
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
because it couldn't actually handle too many people.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:06.880
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
And I don't think the metaverse has come to being.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:09.320
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
I think there will be something like that.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:14.200
Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality | Lex Fridman Podcast #321
It won't necessarily be from that one company.
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0321-large.html#00:33:16.040