sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
323b99fb9b704c42cc1c3625529cb25c494d202d | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x61cba34d92474b5a5aeb87967f964e3ee57a252e1c6a9debb520fa82a58b3664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | Event: sea-cag-fio-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on September 1 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-1-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Eth... | no | 1 | mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | 78,263,729 | 78,263,729 |
8d68f94a5a5c3919b1239a8e3344295fc1deabb0 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x63ae14c0bf9244f40eac060a491236fb32b0f70f0ad54fda6bced692d12b312e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on September 1 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-1-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-10-27? | 78,263,729 | 78,263,729 |
e0971ccf4d61caa0bcbd9c7fd6f08e351c4bad79 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x1f9a9fb86f16d52462d3e6d718cdc3fc60bcca8c372b04876448a01e9bf9b99e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig?
Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | 67,387,619 | 67,387,619 |
cc3e984ce353b461f48eaaf0703331902b8beede | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x2c848cf34845831c89b46904e9986a495bbd60b9c4581fbef44aeaa666f22d07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan?
Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | no | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | 67,387,619 | 67,387,619 |
3ff3b7c3969ed813651fc4b02b1e91fbd128cc18 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xa4286dc0e7517c25e351ed8d08ebef01bb48696694eda668d111e71cca66df55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Mila... | no | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a draw? | 67,387,619 | 67,387,619 |
9d56c836f47a0e8c30321d4dd88927b8ed3a70ad | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xd16e210d87e89f287575c7ec7967b3d3d842379e16f8a0568db848c56fd6c281 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 1 | ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Will the match between Sturm Graz and RB Leipzig end in a draw? | 67,387,619 | 67,387,619 |
d56e272eaf88c9cc9642de4c6a8b06eb0f0ca4ff | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x16108e9c2faf5a98b1acc084708aea73926268475d7fbd6b4f9ad4e29a21a46f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0 | ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11? | 68,964,789 | 68,964,789 |
475bda58ad446f9b251326c108869cc0410f5e77 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x9f6cdaa61fbaf166db9067f7589c1c1ca7a7cff3d778d4d57feab0e1e834bf07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0.25 | ucl-int-fey-2025-03-11 | Will Inter win on 2025-03-11? | 68,964,789 | 68,964,789 |
7355e05cbd024986b986dc09df87ee6abda82fa1 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xbe6993738f96488886a74cd2a6ff2ff81c3bd03e2c8b5a969a2df8e5aff354a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0.012726 | ucl-b04-bay-2025-03-11 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? | 68,964,789 | 68,964,789 |
af9b3a1c81d9e762834eb0617cb37da2ea412ca5 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x5b9b80714b83d25158028365606f742943fc4c8b7f6cf0f1299d2b237412ac36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? | 69,121,506 | 69,121,506 |
cbac9f63ea8bc85b6653245da83eca2cf1e605cc | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xde4a00e17e4e08b5c4ef1e5c03c6883b4d40c06959439778ba19635fb16c65be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | yes | 0.020408 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? | 69,121,506 | 69,121,506 |
4809b28d8740dca251808650c11bb91b7d2545d7 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xdec94686ac38e6ab576e20b946eeb475580bc82b37e36ad17503666eae587eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0.007407 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | 69,121,506 | 69,121,506 |
4514b5239551484045c03c0f996281548f4c1d2a | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xaa7a58a65c199f7be13d2cd9fc518cdec1ede26017ef9dc6c91711ffb711153a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | yes | 0.025748 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 18? | 69,245,666 | 69,245,666 |
3d88c05cf464a8b7445543f71bc2bdfcd8861a63 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x2b1596d3b1fff9ef7d7fc07cd6c875ba537239a4fe27eca8d26a3341e83dfa57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | yes | 0.065172 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 19? | 69,410,825 | 69,410,825 |
1499f54c057884c7831597d054d31b81ef4bfe40 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xc461be917a81b765e624a98711c82d8af597ef0705480b5a4c5e155e1b03d10f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | yes | 0.028133 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 19? | 69,410,825 | 69,410,825 |
57e8a71bd55565d883c2101b4de3d77b9b4fbcde | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x4199011f0c6b66d39f74826c0f466beb1381b1128716b566ea5df9b9aa3a7409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0 | uel-lyo-mun-2025-04-10 | Will Lyon win on 2025-04-10? | 70,326,899 | 70,326,899 |
f5451acdfac1b458c0a92646223f7763145bb39d | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0x486bfa956c8f009a314aedc893d63bf026bb0f5c63d27b5fad88cbe0079c65fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0 | uel-tot-fra-2025-04-10 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-10? | 70,326,899 | 70,326,899 |
b18be66c3d9e192199df17c2d5b58a62f30a7c59 | 0x201bc8413578ac3c1b853a565ca3d570702b9cb2 | 0xce5722bcbbd319dc03d4feb1e7ba563d1aaa2c9d7c286c44bdc93a96670e07ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-rb-leipzig | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dinamo Zagreb beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a dr... | no | 0.018767 | next-prime-minister-of-australia | Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | 71,191,170 | 71,191,170 |
0617dfe749687f05059fc14f0e93719f8dfeabaa | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x040fe8243ed29430519de5400ae056245af51a8ad76a4b9a47610273cb49242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace?
Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | 63,077,638 | 63,077,638 |
1c91526d00e021aea5b492fe9dcc27db66d5a16a | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x196e290132123baae9491667fe33c85c4868b18c7eb0b1ca3975770b52273177 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?
Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | no | 1 | 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | 63,077,638 | 63,077,638 |
3cf9ee7349e4c538fd926386f3138bc49896a663 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x13430c63dc89d9070519254b23023f939965da6ad8f50e6b6eda09c2bb943051 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon twe... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-16-23 | Will Elon tweet between 60-79 times? | 63,077,639 | 63,077,639 |
2c863d841af05d20b8f963812a4f5ad4da7d0193 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x8b49263f81e70b77cc944155cf495c399ff2877d3b9cf229fa23318ddf0318b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | epl-fulham-vs-leicester-city | Will Fulham beat Leicester City? | 63,077,639 | 63,077,639 |
037ad24eaf4ef6ec697cc92cee44e1e371c1dedd | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xa8a0f4cd774d67f27a4b370b3e1807837f44cf1ed7d382d8442f84c4c7230e2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | epl-fulham-vs-leicester-city | Will Leicester City beat Fulham? | 63,077,639 | 63,077,639 |
3bacd1c73f3c78fe7af155a4ec5c0cb5759a071b | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xbfe1f4ddd4769cbabdca18d3bbf2fc4dddfcd90d7d4c34b06fcb25d6e4bbf4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | august-2024-temperature-increase-c | August temperature increase by less than 1.15°C? | 63,077,639 | 63,077,639 |
d8b69d9a6bdd72461d145db13482c8a3aa0cf74d | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xc5d44748c8d00d53902a41d73678bd3036ea46481a308bab7e2aec203dd59add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Will Crystal Palace beat West Ham? | 63,077,639 | 63,077,639 |
cd01dbcb5074e799c23d395a3e7fc1b39feb5f05 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x366a72ef227bce7ce5f812f25db1a673e225fea86d01e0ed465301bb1292b68d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 October 11-18? | 63,882,692 | 63,882,692 |
9a75f8c316f64e14f681f1a32839b34eb4db197f | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x0c12d7b5322f432a0c4ac8806b476c7483c4d44061ca1188b6f749ec9db34996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 65,866,188 | 65,866,188 |
a2d060cb53ff2fd5249a5d35c3bc2d644e9165e7 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x809e249dac8e7f892e1a3be2b7d4a59f4cfc4e2732b6dfc80ca04d3173228705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | of-debates-between-vance-and-walz | 1 Vance vs. Walz debate before election? | 65,866,188 | 65,866,188 |
1ff35035d063e2f4f7bdacf9ebe100403dbe1d9f | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x8fcd514641fa74b8f823b3aa157f57f0b912abd44c791517d15dc992965c4697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | rhode-island-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | 65,866,188 | 65,866,188 |
be55e34152f818e3faeaa5858440f4cfd85c4f2e | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 65,866,188 | 65,866,188 |
44731ce3c6d9fa0dcd24660b771cd25688d886fd | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xf0fd3618354964f3eef092fa6a9c72b6e97e81435ace6829fb4c8275c0906246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,927,241 | 67,927,241 |
23680d6c23096262110d5dd70b3c3662e0ed1c0f | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x2baf4d031621e1b11fc0e506118a745c38cc91f5250ed158c02150de8c76ff79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | oscars-best-supporting-actor | Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | 69,296,783 | 69,296,783 |
19870353de8b6d8e0202afbc590561590c2a5de6 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x74e9197dc739a6f4b8b92acbc066278143850716cf2e50159f62a0ef90fc50a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,882,045 | 69,882,045 |
a38e450073b5a14a317e4f92ba7d3eb67205a009 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x6b6b4a5a807d1379cbc7566f71995689bbe1e7811c7eb0c43609164c099bfe0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 72,637,021 | 72,637,021 |
2f8f36b3bff7c54b7ef019ef9f15e54aad9327d4 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0xeb63c243856ba35d7ee46a281a3cbc70f361560d1e685021f456cbd484adcf15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? | 73,923,067 | 73,923,067 |
c744f1e14434cbe3d709a82aebc0188a403a9adf | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x5abf45b216ba14d05af1ab9aa5046e2b309e142fa067fa22608bf685f6879fcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | bank-of-canada-interest-rates-july-2025 | Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the July meeting? | 75,160,479 | 75,160,479 |
28ef154d8603a74b7b82c3d485886b258a5b6d4b | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x2cd2746b18983deb67d1f42e9fa6821033b71d44d146d3721245cd3ef6280d20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | bank-of-brazil-decision-in-november | Will the Bank of Brazil raise the Selic rate after November 2025 meeting? | 78,646,736 | 78,646,736 |
930906ccc49c4ed0b6f728fd714b989613868ca8 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x0054b96491280169428b7dc207736031ad23ef78bd4e47665e5047a70db70657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | no | 1 | bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? | 79,281,213 | 79,281,213 |
3dd01a69cb1b03d988d976d007654ead89e80fd1 | 0x2039135afceec00a05a56e58d381f27dc60eec43 | 0x2a2c1ad33e5ada4bd6c3cfa5ffe8782dd176eb08a3e62067a7bb7ba3a3bba8e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham beat Crystal Palace? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-west-ham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet between 60... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | 79,281,213 | 79,281,213 |
2c16c013f9d303fc24342cfb20b507273c32e028 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,300,360 | 71,300,360 |
7e4bb30dedef2e708a66754a6307eb3060634cb7 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xbc313b9d1136eada02794b4299fa04bab53da830001d73966fb9ca1e7ffbad5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSO... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | 71,300,360 | 71,300,360 |
ffa3f6cf9abd488230a2d2fb778fc0d4e616583a | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe?
... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,300,360 | 71,300,360 |
59a2e090f1abef31bfcbfb522d43c0cea0270023 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xb380f87abfaa17451b443b26ea048dcfa9b424c17a8644d166097902a6997fee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 27? | 72,042,698 | 72,042,698 |
8e675abeaed288c8fdf7ac3bb832a047057dfbd4 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x5b8e32e1fbc08f9e7ab47d24593e67b950d95c13899a79a92921bfc106d0d7e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | 72,232,512 | 72,232,512 |
6b837bafafc306af2cc9ba831f2212707322a08c | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,232,512 | 72,232,512 |
06bd0596eb62aff1e44c61b86adb4acd39944f20 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | 72,232,512 | 72,232,512 |
c8895c5e8dc252b77b240ffcf3f8c721a0e4a49d | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,276,263 | 72,276,263 |
3c89859f2e04a4e84e1ce725ea2f08056474d991 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,342,757 | 72,342,757 |
38b3b75144a1a7bae21461ecbad3bd1f87d1acc0 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xb12fad2cd9f1b467ce2ecd8fbef0e4a2c202aa12359a801d6026b836cf21f6f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | indian-premier-league-champion-2025 | Will the Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2025 Indian Premier League? | 72,342,757 | 72,342,757 |
00171e73209c9e0d8512fad6c6baec1c5182766a | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc35632edf91069a4ff6302f83d8bd871d589077f37bab921ef743278cc085751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,544,235 | 72,544,235 |
c2863254cd54b8e9cf017b3f270197e099fa48a8 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,129,175 | 73,129,175 |
905045ba789f22986bc3f9c2c48bc964e62259d4 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xb24b0d51738d2116de76b3e476028a317bc9a68e533693c34b2541ade7e31a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 24? | 73,230,507 | 73,230,507 |
bb0f95e77d40e23d67979c6e405ca82d5a3c4ad1 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc35476f5260f185ed61eb98f0df828fc039b6b2dc0b6608dc75f743988b283f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-27-888 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27? | 73,296,489 | 73,296,489 |
7822884bad7ded13530a18b01d5428431e4f6eec | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xdec80349218f98d030cd5c63f1a436319bc868a93f4928eff4d7e05bed67cc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1? | 73,559,408 | 73,559,408 |
a7908202bb598546a80a1cc377dbb72d1e471bbc | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x2b0bfd93edb986831c1dca98d077d7aa6b2702fc4d3ac8ae0385a7d89c38b863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,936,688 | 73,936,688 |
f36c77740c8e6ce0ca17643ab791d875d2d4ca23 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,936,688 | 73,936,688 |
c1f8c816f111368645602c04a3755aed29312e42 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,936,688 | 73,936,688 |
1432bed52b179d51c3e8eb634463d3ec5fd7a8c0 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xe8f55690ffaa966de60e4588125b412ff17dad9aec37a23d0bbba4240ef6abf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-15-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3000 on July 15 at 5PM ET? | 74,024,129 | 74,024,129 |
a364846d26b102bef214796952894bea60477be8 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x2eb93075f572715b2d6255916879f4e524de31916106311d5e47a57ede334c1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | world-series-of-poker-main-event-winner-139 | Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | 74,060,538 | 74,060,538 |
88744c24a46f553397f65d128daf8b733ece1c08 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xdec1c7924f2a1b01fc52bf42fd8bfe5169fd57428caeb5bd4c9af33ab3084259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? | 74,801,730 | 74,801,730 |
2f53ee48f69a97c5379027d0d10acb4a969c20ff | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x314f73bcaa756f692fecdac18b4a23531cb97bc8c917c2a6905a9e603fb6684b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | cs2-iem-cologne | Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? | 76,239,757 | 76,239,757 |
6c35d13acaae07a19f564abc7e7bae30b7353312 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x57d87171f7e178e954f8a2aa4d816b0455d8a255c4fd4b702939721d36937035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? | 76,239,757 | 76,239,757 |
a5adb9300b899d0aaa8815fd32ce6d49a9d30bc3 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x79dcf0d36a9a8c7f30715ab604a85c412573710ec5a3c1363ed582db2a0fa7d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 76,239,757 | 76,239,757 |
bf6ed5c5e1e35f4423643a78a986a23a2235bee1 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0x941bea9e5fb5e647831373ff50acacf30a3a6a66ec47c1f2ed757b4c1dec3613 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? | 76,239,757 | 76,239,757 |
7ab579b95710df2f6a5620275a6df634c4f7ad57 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc0f3faeb3ac410b2b63739c39282a008263f2015cc909365ce6a788f3f5bfa48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | 76,239,757 | 76,239,757 |
3f213eedca5ec75b36a308ef1dffa6598fe68c47 | 0x205cf997cca06e393d887164e0cac14e29c1f554 | 0xc6c7945ff24e48e03d45727b75d908311eb4b09b2bdb837eb96ac8fbb153dd0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what... | no | 1 | fl1-met-hac-2025-09-28 | Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-28? | 77,032,362 | 77,032,362 |
3c2fab551b9ce6e2c9dad9d49e6b23fc497e1ab9 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x585a514c49aa5ee7ac82e1ae246b5d160243060e2e3fad8f9fc42f663f4d3d01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?
Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.904134 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | 70,959,300 | 70,959,300 |
c68ca49145f0f09eb272e75a4783d55f6914c8fb | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xe84b1fdc087f4153ebf15cfc07f065dd5a66f3caf370b4547ea8e02100be95be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
Target market:
Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025
Predict the use... | no | 0.230769 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | 70,959,328 | 71,096,103 |
698da9204b5fe3957333c7805842ac0d9f412e9a | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x0aeb566c973d193ef7f77d2532ba6bffe4f76d5f6b7c5422ceaa966536b7ef90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.181729 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | 70,976,052 | 71,070,575 |
635ba57e2893320ed6f1754922787118f877b683 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x9aa6086535a4b3145e9f7378dd58a7a8c30c4b15bd4fe17eb6990817f5cd3cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.142857 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | 70,994,318 | 71,070,575 |
2f922c618993d51e57e6be26ca95874e9031db58 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x75b733f44db39e3685b9fd4e4acd228e626a50b2a89e1357940b94ae247deaff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.143934 | ripple-above-2pt20-on-may-2 | Ripple above $2.20 on May 2? | 70,996,035 | 71,025,154 |
d611c5d2c9f9fe7b757db108d831d670bec62803 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x4e2887e913cd6e091c9b07b5e4013b24f372453efa6f11a0b0c5f65371729cf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.447254 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | 70,998,829 | 71,102,315 |
2efdca0d2a22c633258e0a1a5edd353fe3c44256 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x8d56032a70551b17890cf2b31d3ecbfae25e40a6ca48d60165bd0869b67ca74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.333333 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2025 | Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? | 70,998,850 | 70,998,850 |
f801082d1b76c2dc9e8577417a55a341aa3bea10 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x9ce1af2146864b126242d277fcc7506cf27307b70753a8fa0b99df60ba72b165 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.142122 | ethereum-above-1800-on-may-2 | Ethereum above $1,800 on May 2? | 70,998,879 | 71,023,842 |
f009bf45d372f47382f8821fe7956a0bee3db6d1 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x6767550e239bc46ea3a955881a7e81b92eb4bf8b0278f216a8aea882eb47c084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.332889 | bitcoin-above-94000-on-may-2 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? | 70,999,070 | 71,095,608 |
fbc3c3d66b02aeb48de31c88731034923bb3298c | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xa85c53df275da255aa0286fe083e8404c37be7ee9df0e99c338c5aea574526c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May? | 71,007,721 | 71,007,721 |
ec8955bc3b104e6481712fbadbb0e281800788b0 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x59545b23eef07c1a2752ecfc159eceee120b38a2090b72b156722a24b6cd026b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.034576 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | 71,007,728 | 71,055,211 |
5605f9339f23db4d76f69fcafa2a03615eb8f08d | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x3c5d3aed71d0fd00759c587dc4c43f9081ac9712adb26526cc5b63c96152359e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | dogecoin-above-0pt18-on-may-2 | Dogecoin above $0.18 on May 2? | 71,010,258 | 71,095,608 |
534d598936b33db5b15b81dea8d4e99df8bd2475 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x5d2167263ae365132d331132461294ea3805a371aa9f799d5d43efe8c60ceca3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-may | Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May? | 71,023,743 | 71,023,743 |
3a97a03e0f6bbf73edd2836a5d3a61e5b9bb07d7 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x944c7815453212389efdb9226a0ec5f1d91728ff4c9ea4debd2666e6aeeded01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.5 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | 71,023,789 | 72,247,018 |
f3c8f20afb571a5b2e277a48e67925c2aea705ac | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x23d50565eb42fc604e7b0d32ae523076f9ee6b0e293615f60a002ad6147da5bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? | 71,023,796 | 71,041,983 |
574a7f8e2621a7c7e2f6b23f5924e7c090972098 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x11f85e6e9cd1c5a93fdaf06fa6d6282440390615fe042985e95b071ffcce3cbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.052699 | solana-above-150-on-may-2 | Solana above $150 on May 2? | 71,023,810 | 71,095,608 |
57a0c0b6641fd1a5fb1cabf6542b60b3919efbfd | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x5990ecc1af291d16c6a1514f2d91f22aee74f4fb8212a09eae0430c5ad272fc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 0.000035 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-2 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 2? | 71,023,821 | 71,025,168 |
37c98ae59158575ed6ae51ab2627e607271bc2be | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x054c7c6ba0fe690d201b58ad70de0025e379204f45d664c7fc0de1d2c823a11f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-2 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? | 71,025,174 | 71,025,174 |
d5d2092cd1720b33c399ba5969403b564e98ced9 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x80026f98f9de40aea8dba02798c4f0067942bba401fa3715209ee7c27482640b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.2 | us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | 71,036,080 | 71,041,983 |
66ae1683d4a26b9ca29d877f5c6aa6558edcce0b | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xe423d64dbe13e25b07d8b9e4b4f05ac92e70e6f2e41de7fb6a1424dcd9f37c96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-in-may-218 | Solana Up or Down in May? | 71,036,080 | 71,070,575 |
d4d7e03f3f2cef10675c9db3592e3b580d538ec3 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x7fdfacb17deea641a039d33e560f93c5e01ab47c1d9c61c402c51909472ad5ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-97000-on-may-9 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? | 71,041,983 | 71,041,983 |
127eec63f5adb230cd8177a1838c61052b49f761 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xac2be3a5471b343d43b9f0d3f141611b91feb8c66aed8e286cd3d2540714aaba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.333187 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | 71,041,983 | 71,041,983 |
e422bc668480237aee4f2b19590a6f7691b272d5 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xfea241f225731ca7576caa228e3eaa7d144c214ea94eeadc6670a1ba697bba15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-in-may | Bitcoin Up or Down in May? | 71,041,983 | 71,041,983 |
b572dce35535d1f29d45d96147a4fea10d52309b | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x12fc2e334e4e16b266937550b782313cf4faef5f4be259145dabf1e7326f326c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-may | Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? | 71,055,211 | 71,055,211 |
3312dabf4970d1dc5da2639c2f6c12b94ed16652 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x7d684354ea4cc1c062c53b939ec6e0d1997a23846d39c5c30b15fbffc66322f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-in-may-532 | XRP Up or Down in May? | 71,055,211 | 71,055,211 |
677e73e5f31b94d3876f969b48e757bef393d009 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x2ad0ad6207f5b8de747a95e0c450dcea74bade06341f9c4d6be71231119893f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.2 | solana-above-150-on-may-9 | Solana above $150 on May 9? | 71,055,211 | 71,070,575 |
fa6e4408c26fe422cbc9954885a51587f3caf6cb | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0xcf3528de3fe0707d92a70e2c2c4244d95a3072debdbc1cfe26ea3e00271863cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may | Will Solana dip to $130 in May? | 71,055,211 | 72,247,018 |
0e6a40d648c5e1d6e7a7ce3fe074ddd0b7fad708 | 0x208e7d17e83f757e68bc0d0aecfca9d67c3ebcb3 | 0x3a0cd807e94e8a32876c28621ffab9cca9a1ec4caa6437c29cabe09cf49bbaab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-april-29-may-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.904134386091178
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may | Will Solana reach $170 in May? | 71,070,575 | 71,070,575 |
ea42974092a62d05c46286b090bd21dd0cc247df | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x957317f0e45d7eab8b03741f44e3a60afb33c63b314e26f33eb179c747bb15d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals
Event: nfl-week-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | buccaneers | 0 | nfl-week-16 | NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | 37,284,535 | 37,284,535 |
f44f2818732888748f2bddaf92781fa902cb2b00 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xbda3f736ff25461f6797e1ec1126a30f00255cf212c0ab25338816dc09e2a00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17?
Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target m... | no | 0 | will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | 38,801,394 | 38,801,394 |
38571ae0a026aee9e24242a388a6ce9e1bd544c2 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb08c75808eeaa441b29685b0f30fba3874b4c4daff08747bbeb87fee6f49cf92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sam Tra... | yes | 0.000432 | will-sam-trabucco-be-federally-charged-by-march-31 | Will Sam Trabucco be federally charged by March 31? | 38,804,954 | 38,804,954 |
4f145ab3ee09d9eb5683cde6b7140039fea70c5e | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x3960e6ba226b18e349a586703c942d334325f3c026d179a7bcf8a524edaa40f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | lakers | 0 | nba-dailies-02022023 | NBA: Lakers vs. Pacers (02/02/2023) | 38,843,420 | 38,843,420 |
67c8d446e40a31136faa2a6e91f66bae5c848470 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x2c8432eb438250dd3f8a1f1610036d7b385a16e8cc28009052413825695c39ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | hornets | 0 | nba-dailies-02032023 | NBA: Hornets vs. Pistons (02/03/2023) | 38,882,555 | 38,882,555 |
bed528ac9b316f7554e7382f8aa7f68e8faa6c02 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xbd73cfd6c4e70e1b7fefb589a8aa45f7c0014967905d9d552d678ad821b725f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | who-bailed-out-sbf | Did Kevin O'Leary bail out SBF? | 39,038,618 | 39,154,810 |
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