sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20a5ee4b436d3268c7bf26910cbde3915d832d4b | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x99c0965b13b8374737bf087337afe310fe9fe22d0b2a35d7972cae10ddba2711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wormhole token FDV between 5-6 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.01 and 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-e... | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,414,273 | 59,414,273 |
c5a2c288c34fdb608e4364cf731e39b52f222416 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa3e0185c69a933ea5a47b6b188570fa711ad66914c70f9149a1ff7902b1973ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.01 and 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6325545608192557
2. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.0001 and 0.001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? |... | no | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,414,273 | 59,414,273 |
2f81ee0aecaece7c82b9e514eb557ebd77b01d11 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa3f413434b7d308752ee86c92737947b02f18ad43883afbbe3b0124fa6e46d14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.0001 and 0.001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Iran response to Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-response-to-israel-by-friday-apr-12 | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,414,273 | 59,414,273 |
e9825d5b41fa0dc2f4d62147fa22f9d45b68befe | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xb0f35ef24df5dedc6f05d78dd5227d2d2a9a8389809cb09dd232ab5e52db1cc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran response to Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-response-to-israel-by-friday-apr-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be <0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Marco Rubio win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,414,273 | 59,414,273 |
3231fc1409a21162b9937999efc16bb75ec9c107 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xf5875410202b3545491774ab5e712a6e05a0ffe780c52270cc8d70cc95164411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be <0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.001 and 0.01 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-... | no | 0.30764 | who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination | [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | 59,478,198 | 59,478,198 |
e7ccce4dda18f7bc2f838c078369faf51d07a77b | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfee7cb9350806e31ebd3d9ed6cedb4cd4f9aa600ff556a9e072067891b0327a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.001 and 0.01 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | Event: gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7611227232009555
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-f... | yes | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 21? | 59,646,817 | 59,646,817 |
3b5e1330dac20353af0da83fac0d765f176c37af | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x1f3d329c2d5b12237c80c4d3d5251098e5cab789d946b4d048d1ce5779de6e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? | 59,679,509 | 59,679,543 |
680368db8fd91a2073f371e300d2d4c74d587f69 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa0ac353b64c8b50456f220b325ff579642d97034b7e693f68938fbce39e197d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | 4-x-200m-relay-winner-w | Will Australia win Gold in the Women’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 60,084,854 | 60,084,854 |
54ba9aae017bdcefb6eca4192069ad300299b369 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: n... | no | 0 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,267,709 | 60,267,709 |
9c46a635f639e729b7a5d726a25b2b60d918167e | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x55094f77e9dbc107fc354a9b8a5939cd0b4d0cfae24c7f892dd778b565b579c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no... | no | 0.003763 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,268,834 | 60,268,834 |
814ef3d2e1b7b055c25f8d5530616dd5eea43875 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe64f063b9e2b02f8ac679ebacfb938088c1ddde2a953a1ebfd4a92b802910371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: FriendTech market cap less than $1b one day after launch? | Event: friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 0.468077 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,282,712 | 60,282,712 |
6e5dc1593fd0dea397b62a65b1243d47948fdacb | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x26ee82bee2493a302d21283cb578f7e2fff2dd15743854f53034d12420863b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: FriendTech market cap less than $1b one day after launch? | Event: friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: FriendTech market cap $1-2b one day after launch? | Event: friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9900497512239796
3. ... | democratic | 0 | which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election | Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 60,872,600 | 60,872,600 |
2d494fdd30a6b3da664e4f542428deba02cdd39f | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8621c8949aa5ee329b63d27b64da5b0e50e5b73ce45d7f93382be54862047333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.000073 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | 78,713,371 | 78,917,348 |
2a4b877a8f05677d9ee0b1edc59e2521eb8cd0a9 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xdfd869fb69e5cb5352ebe56cf7ccb4396151dcddc8c284e74d4c33711007717e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16)
Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16
Predict t... | no | 0.000218 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | 78,877,105 | 78,877,105 |
69dacccc74f04521f4d6c8b893989aba49d59497 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x3b85eeb525e1d48d5e5d10c17d591cd76d2b125e443c85d532cda4bf731ad8bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Will Trump say “Maduro” this week? (November 10 - 16) | 78,877,114 | 78,877,114 |
4d970f6a1f236ba34b5683071f41fd51fbe9d55f | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xd34d58203e36df789cd199546bcc9261447ac0dc96dc2dfe18c0b9dcd669bbe0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Will Trump say “Climate Change” this week? (November 10 - 16) | 78,877,120 | 78,877,120 |
e4fdb27d1560f11bb4ebb9ab64a75fa04b490e7e | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xba8a448cc9d7f859ffa5280014cab3f2973a11211cdac77925cdb7e93440abed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | jair-bolsonaro-in-jail-by-january-31 | Jair Bolsonaro in jail by January 31? | 78,877,163 | 78,877,163 |
c99d70cfd4e1cfd007096dcf293a9971f2a91295 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x37bea11910936627707652bd6af486f7ea7eb5247cddc0e723de0aafbc67897c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | 78,916,866 | 78,916,866 |
e7db816937350099ba1af9031a3b3d0388bd1de7 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x70257d9dbc0fe5f168b06b8f775a7029653d38c15f6acd476d8c8b377156f41c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 78,917,348 | 78,917,348 |
284b2409bc0b0348adb24470b8d459aa91d00a0b | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xb5bfbe70100b8105729965a07d7ecd578a8552550164ab2ef96e4ce7911eb8ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8? | 78,917,348 | 78,917,348 |
907cd7d6e876658db6547b6cc85032b03f66450c | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8b5aef1038204c535af22bea11b7979520cfa6c045ad1f5f8f38dc90634d1754 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Russia vs. Peru end in a draw? | 78,919,178 | 78,919,178 |
7b14289818204affed6e4e4e584982cc4a79a552 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xa8dfc037f8d11936acab711238fe4a0f7ad16bd69c1357bffe58aa7b339c2fed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | over | 0 | nba-por-nop-2025-11-12 | Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 | 78,927,040 | 78,927,040 |
ec15d6901541347e18c363bab705879d198a70df | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x3e0ca5851e098be4a2e20994c82764cb91eaad6a1e391d9c06582ab7f9f05212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 13? | 78,927,089 | 78,927,089 |
8cb6d0658d0a226b793232514de251ef1c416001 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xad4d28a89ce5738450b918f581a0fb2fc2cf9b7e38e09e07c7324746b6068844 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 13? | 78,927,103 | 78,927,103 |
0634755f57dc1c5baf7df9d28ad54c9f69794896 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8d2dbdf0577c7bd73a54e7bba11b3e8a0b329d95fcfe5dc96ff6d1a3a30300d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 13? | 78,927,109 | 78,927,109 |
f9c38c16287528c4146fe79c4ef49c9d63ea9ea0 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8bfe8c888ded2970b704a2602f7c4150a0ef73e983feb81de6ca960605d3d692 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.000368 | uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Will England vs. Serbia end in a draw? | 78,959,007 | 78,959,007 |
76978a82a164bbb5310ca4a0ccc4653fcecc9b76 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xe1585b025996176c1e1ec61a6a684d7407703ea64f51ca7378b034bc932443bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | over | 0 | nfl-nyj-ne-2025-11-13 | Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5 | 78,959,019 | 78,959,019 |
a76065342e4a413eb727ab9553f4872d38b7164a | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x256518fe265109ccc14f557455643acbe84f786b928b2b3bfe5ffa31cc5cf424 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12? | 78,962,115 | 78,962,115 |
dd13b95febf03af5976265a11a1925fcbc7e2368 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xd18ffcc2181b27b6237b69cf23f4f1e139b3c844989c9d5591167c2c2100cce0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | 78,971,543 | 78,971,543 |
c375a93d9159bca85863b71c929c9bdc5c7daf2b | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 78,971,555 | 78,971,555 |
939e0bd39082a18ff129aafa9704f3c88ea26331 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xd7b39f912814f41c7edc9a7693d54487611f4abee1ae4ab6cdf1a704be8a33d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 13? | 78,971,555 | 78,971,555 |
9786fcbc59312c02ce90b20907cbb8ab0e329420 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x954aeeb021a1ba197d54f1734a856fe8fc27b693591f9467bb44f58880f23cdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.000012 | nothing-ever-happens-november | Nothing Ever Happens: November | 79,142,225 | 79,142,225 |
19dadc5f1c92e3930d1ac30928f3c2aee62eda5a | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8749e1752abfa8b2fb45be57183b6efc55d90698458972bf39be3fc5eccec857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 0.000001 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | 79,175,090 | 79,178,836 |
4efcf7415f77dee6c30eb0fa3f90ebee4752e053 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x736bf9fd796dad23025c1f0fb3d8c8d4cac0126731b7b74c9d8d4ee73aa2428a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | fif-mex-par-2025-11-18 | Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18? | 79,217,521 | 79,217,521 |
0bd175c82e7b21410e1e0ad87dd47a12ced6ed68 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x141c860ee6fe9799c2da05e3e504d14dfaa3e76af89333f0b0fc855e96d7787d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | afc-irq-uae-2025-11-18 | Will Iraq win on 2025-11-18? | 79,230,550 | 79,230,550 |
e8e2402d1dabb0ae19c178fb541c21edc187e7cd | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xe3cb4985842e01d9f9d87c3e7f9d54161f92b4318d4fd3ed9449879a1d01a617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | over | 0.000131 | nba-sac-mem-2025-11-20 | Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5 | 79,267,606 | 79,267,606 |
f79ef2a0253b1320c1f7339f0f14a103fe1d58c0 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xad6eff375fa1a3240dead32f4fe69bd4057fbbe6d9ea1b672f75135491f05684 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | under | 0.000054 | nba-sac-mem-2025-11-20 | Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 | 79,267,613 | 79,267,613 |
9e72adfd8405bfaab77d980133ad3f90a32d38ec | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xdb098643af1679c4b1219ca0edb39b975bc639538c05dc595aa5be134ca1b992 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | pelicans | 0.00008 | nba-nop-dal-2025-11-21 | Pelicans vs. Mavericks | 79,269,516 | 79,269,516 |
a157e45b3927e82e63afcbcae4b3d731ff6960f6 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xd4f9069776c20d43e2de25dff38e82dd73f94252b84cdef5a41068cc2aa664fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | trail blazers | 0.000084 | nba-por-gsw-2025-11-21 | Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | 79,284,313 | 79,284,313 |
55d9859f7ae65638425b586d5c7b85b296427dad | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xcf2e15656969556e50fb727a97bc47dfc3bfd00b184a6127ce1370569b02bf8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | itsb-cat-pes-2025-11-21 | Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2025-11-21? | 79,348,835 | 79,348,835 |
0996f5830fbe83750a3bfb43222b7f7985221a24 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xc2446f5f502f7a1592f3c1cfbeb0ce277ba8b446c5e38186e6593923cb025db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 79,394,065 | 79,394,065 |
133110e9bef9108e139af7dc978fec3f4fcb19f0 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x81f4be97e00626ec0c40b45dfa0c59b339fadd123fdda9bf584fe4f04a25b906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | den-nor-fcf-2025-11-23 | Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2025-11-23? | 79,415,072 | 79,415,072 |
c3ccbd05e856b4e00d40d07000f235e0cd2e4c92 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8a257e4449bf9a7e7d6859d0b37084f9dd6ca13994149c5c770f0fcbb5fbe758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | Event: aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 7.260527114268496e-05
2. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-wer-2025-11-23 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23? | 79,415,072 | 79,415,072 |
11d05914bd18200e5d89a141825c31fd5c12d773 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x19433a6f3802df1d6d686968ed67cc4031a52f7a01f67b9734c3cadcd789f921 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00021754731654134775
2. Question: Will Trump say “Maduro” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | bra-cru-cor1-2025-11-23 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-23? | 79,434,140 | 79,434,140 |
c5aaff5006e3cc048c817458cc6f3e8d0af40caf | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xec8b068591d0ac62e8bd8f37300e771fc47165e7570db51a1fbc32ad902e8321 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say “Maduro” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say “Climate Change” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | mls-fcc-mia-2025-11-23 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-11-23? | 79,434,140 | 79,434,140 |
0406bd5943de6b246f9a4c32affd6366024420ba | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x033f057e299360fa7b1601bc05bbb9a1804000b1807256a6ce2e458235a7bfba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say “Climate Change” this week? (November 10 - 16) | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-november-10-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jair Bolsonaro in jail by January 31? | Event: jair-bolsonaro-in-jail-by-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | es2-rso-vld-2025-11-24 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw? | 79,477,617 | 79,477,617 |
d3d2c93c3e91e5d5efdbc9ca3a97abdd47846ead | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x335772482ad7aee4e8fa6588d2fe81ceba17f60b56c8d98787c702e7ac3d5a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jair Bolsonaro in jail by January 31? | Event: jair-bolsonaro-in-jail-by-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: e... | blues | 1 | nhl-stl-nyr-2025-11-24 | Spread: Rangers (-1.5) | 79,477,617 | 79,477,617 |
5b7d5cb050ecabce9d21709abe9c3d62ce086268 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8d81c32b88b0a3d232aaaf861db59db3d7caff727cc283ef00f664e66c11329f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66... | no | 1 | lal-esp-sev-2025-11-24 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-24? | 79,477,617 | 79,477,617 |
2782a4e73bec8fe841548a0888da2df4d47c17ea | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x158cff4d582b2a7b1cde05df32ba384549c2dd5e020f105c7fa16fdfa58414e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ucl-aja-ben-2025-11-25 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
8d9d5d5173e17250fe40cc905d6634a92083d130 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x2b57785eca87f32ea9ae4fa3a752eb2f60485d9f889c96b54c041b649fb73dc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia vs. Peru end in a draw? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trail B... | yes | 1 | elc-hul-ips-2025-11-25 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
9798197bf4e6dfbef3a60def345432e1943988e0 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x58ec5e2152dc639d74bb400bbc10b12b200b9d89d7feac96ab541dc896c4ac67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia vs. Peru end in a draw? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 | Event: nba-por-nop-2025-11-12 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 13? | Even... | no | 1 | elc-sto-cha-2025-11-25 | Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
9b6014293f123536cc004a41edcad19d4eeaa9af | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xa60ea8a7d8922481546adcec828d9d104880ca1285abd16be148aa5a2590c4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 | Event: nba-por-nop-2025-11-12 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above... | no | 1 | elc-wat-pne-2025-11-25 | Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
a5fc12fdeda3208eb61c13027688e1e2200ec597 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xaad6a2b4690da53fcd2962ce597cfae926a54c4ab42fbabbc618984400af5e50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | elc-sot-lei-2025-11-25 | Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
a1a39c32d66fe39e9a2c5e35bd2fa5788bf1a3dc | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xacba346309f9358b32b9e39cc80942726fbef18f205ee29eb42ff36a5a19a8a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Engl... | yes | 1 | ucl-bvb-vil1-2025-11-25 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
16e35f5446a6f9013ecc020f9fa15af7b3fff9da | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0xe1d9af97ce879d2172aa57d1ccab58ad1d8cd76a9af32ce3feb216878b1fd22b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will England vs. Serbia end in a draw? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0003678602714183073
3. Question: Jets vs. Patriots... | yes | 1 | elc-sto-cha-2025-11-25 | Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,518,348 | 79,518,348 |
82f031dc2d21e015ce554c49be936e147c39a588 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x5fcce710282e1b2992f182810f814c05af049740c08be23376d81cf9bc8d14ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England vs. Serbia end in a draw? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0003678602714183073
2. Question: Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5 | Event: nfl-nyj-ne-2025-11-13 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be betwe... | yes | 1 | elc-she-por-2025-11-26 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,564,124 | 79,564,124 |
ad109d9e98b329f115e412aa788ca4fad2144432 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x8902e730c2158192c42141a97652e59d01a7464d840f1cf0b6a7fbe48a44a403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5 | Event: nfl-nyj-ne-2025-11-13 | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trinida... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-26? | 79,564,124 | 79,564,124 |
80b83a0fb2c31137ee0dfd1e0e15da85aeb05f7c | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x2a64286990013f7960d9ebb946f17f10dc75ddc1e54ebf10f86b735625658bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | yes | 1 | bra-flu-sao-2025-11-27 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
0934df75ad9e546bc2a18b4cf58e60f5d9e378b0 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x5770e142af27f78b0327d6b5aff440082b09440c489ce5f013e7f1169c270db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica end in a draw? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the government ... | yes | 1 | uel-not-mal2-2025-11-27 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
8f3e4d23c406b9fba170326a135dc0187e8d3fa5 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x81a4ca35e84ac4617b697f7440eba235ea1f26c566ec11780cead1ea24062eb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 13? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nothing... | yes | 1 | uel-lil-din6-2025-11-27 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
50598d7bca9273f7abc71878065aa0a585762856 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x90dfb380a122fe11c73d8c3749ccebb6b63d210952dc8fd313ea2a31f1398d02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 13? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: November | Event: nothing-ever-happens-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.1754861821599287e-05
3. Question: Will Korea Republi... | yes | 1 | col-ham-lin-2025-11-27 | Will Ħamrun Spartans FC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
ee4c754e56b410f5a31e7ce6fc428d4e82bf9442 | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x9c41a4b99ab995c342247b146682f5754f2cc6cf17bf143e230225f92171966f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: November | Event: nothing-ever-happens-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.1754861821599287e-05
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.3236084748633184e-06
3. Question: Will Mexico win on 2025... | no | 1 | col-sba-ray-2025-11-27 | Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
c1fdd9b9c0c93ac4974e3b29c50f5963bcbd99fd | 0x201151d57d140bc0e1cb3444b54e3c6cac90f296 | 0x9d8fa70f1042d2324ef698f7f8e5bf408d478ff90ebdf02ab7b83a657c4cc364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.3236084748633184e-06
2. Question: Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-mex-par-2025-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iraq win on 2025-11-18? | Event: afc-irq-uae-... | yes | 1 | uel-bol1-rbs1-2025-11-27 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? | 79,606,325 | 79,606,325 |
762339e8e1c1feb47a482989eea3fb955c2a8c47 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x148abdb546ce4abf102625b31e8ff6f55f3e84c389dafd078a5054231a463378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16?
Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | 75,305,974 | 75,305,974 |
a6ff72dbd828ad1da09f6a973abacbacbf966ad8 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x69bf4f8aa2acb131126f0e552f7b5bf1d1e4de09e9271d7b745da48fb5f6b611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17?
Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": .... | yes | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | 75,347,821 | 75,347,821 |
d312fac33d3d86031a9de57fd5caff91ffe2df10 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xcfcd556e69fcddba50c906fc85b4ebc240551103cb3b767f47ad2993ba485253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21?
Event: uel-mal-si... | yes | 1 | uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | 75,507,393 | 75,507,393 |
c37d47c030173ada0a0a7cf4e30fb64458ca52d2 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x17c9e9c952be43752e6c24cb11f8c6ffc6ecc976e307dbcebac2f628a0aca27a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | 75,549,054 | 75,549,054 |
8e0ee327d92047c76fa489bfb9af8b76cc29ce7d | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xb02d4c02ee3365df6c28d117f3d85a1d53bd80aa9797f11e95eb924910ec05eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | 75,549,054 | 75,549,054 |
23046f3720c9cc27f9112d74c789cb8c7c5257b9 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x0b6cbded17b641695ec9efe00da60389bb96bdfc07f4e49f0c33b307b979b646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | 75,587,492 | 75,587,492 |
52bd0bf15549c9ba588168f934088e8ce5a49c1e | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xf1ae42fa84deabb3751cba10d8612071ae03465ec2653afeafee5ac37f7c6c1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-met-2025-08-23 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23? | 75,587,492 | 75,587,492 |
ca76e81d7cb058cc521fe880d4afc53e5ba9649a | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x57b53af900529843bd56d59ed5fc9b2803c8455498063de2666517028fc22898 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | sea-cag-fio-2025-08-24 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | 75,758,258 | 75,758,258 |
c132d204e1263277b287b914a8c9f0c95900d96f | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xa43058357681285eec6f5e4225a3b229b3e3c1f23d96ab6ddeee1318fdb6b10c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-1-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on September 1 at 4PM ET? | 75,949,842 | 75,949,842 |
5ec7fe170440ba2f9f783a26723224b300ea7021 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xdd0ce99f31eab139f95bb4b290056484b8d6587e05e61f0e0c28cbd40b6803e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-2-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4700 on September 2 at 4PM ET? | 75,991,673 | 75,991,673 |
3cca5c3abd8aa04b3d2945ddfeb6fc14324dd917 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x20498c559f6a59ffed5e5152c7c24e50294ab99fe93ccbf0dc11250bc7f2a91a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-5-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on September 5 at 4PM ET? | 76,113,761 | 76,113,761 |
6165b98ff3156a6a6e0fc21470aa9b7ed5943142 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xf71719d60089ce6647e5522e93d4b5e42e0cb6da40dcda3186005c0743623df9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-6-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $113K on September 6 at 4PM ET? | 76,155,171 | 76,155,171 |
3afa34b6b32a1b44cad5ed6f574d5805dc28fd99 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x9499b64bf76f9fb6e8193f8f93a7f064d51edf84ddd7d2ccd42e9799bbf468ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-14-4am-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117,000 and $117,500 on September 14 at 4AM ET? | 76,440,804 | 76,440,804 |
22c6c23d9af0f60c70acf9e311d792ab2473bc92 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,914,764 | 76,914,764 |
5d811736f367a042ad70e5236b0ef922cfeb8d4f | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x41cc434590af62f435d8e0b8d2d53a0ea5c2f96cdbc1f828c28cafc49b557cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? | 76,953,966 | 76,953,966 |
4a9b9323d814f27d271bf56d0578c8a162afbbf3 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xad01427b5bf8f9d38c1cac814d501076a9789c8abdb6b88c656374a998950294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-psg-aja-2025-09-27 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,995,367 | 76,995,367 |
693eb74a73c9a7bcb7ceadccfeab46aa0ab2f050 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,116,724 | 77,116,724 |
822a44d95a68eafe843c0e7b1bdcb599b78db72f | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,158,146 | 77,158,146 |
0aa954f924a0fd14b569d3f76258b57dfd76e0b8 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x980ee5e9de620e695b37f940594bddb5529716d35b0577f91534f4cb76cb02fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-03? | 77,238,795 | 77,238,795 |
bdac6d5be39afff80b22502c0202b853a610993a | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x4434bd2753c24257ab8a7b763b967e9310cdb4ad26a408f6eea370920f35faec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? | 77,278,922 | 77,278,922 |
694d23218ebf3e734ad230d5cb9ed7941b9638b4 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xcf7e95b286f3d8657d806b52d1985b687f7d0ab97f12afdaae112f4e319f7b5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | caf-sey-civ-2025-10-10 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-10-10? | 77,508,949 | 77,508,949 |
5c7f5477e98e3310f75b7ba421ca8eaa3c2e4e8d | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xe21887af62c2297c869cbf3d3a5e1ede151e599d91d58f80bde8bc86e88613ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12? | 77,616,415 | 77,616,415 |
07d2c691cfa2983a20834fa22b213b9e0a14c25b | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xc248b7f2fda5e82e079ccaab343c7138eaa92de1d5edf85169df7e9a6553bba5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | bra-cor1-cam-2025-10-18 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-18? | 77,884,835 | 77,884,835 |
10796f84dd7ccd0f0756e496596013b351fd6f04 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x8f5209f4bc7b23b28d5416a8a41257dda77cfdcbbbcd6f90a28d86d1040c84da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | lal-elc-bil-2025-10-19 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-19? | 77,921,806 | 77,921,806 |
b0cd91e7cf9c91c85a56029d2a7aeeb54674dba3 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x900b802a79a5f0c3d9ccdd9948871d2e0ba3c41214566e8c961972b0642ebce8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | 77,921,806 | 77,921,806 |
d6fc0f88149f85f9c4877ef72fcfab9598363504 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xaa34e877c4e4a5f1aa033b8598b6172887faeeb85b549788a83ae1a7ded5de9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | no | 1 | arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20 | Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-10-20? | 77,964,071 | 77,964,071 |
3a41df0248ba86a9df98733d1dfadaa0909eb6be | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x064364dd745641d83345476c4b474c67a578bc92aac19ac5ac78fd4ec6795414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,964,091 | 77,964,091 |
08f3812098d9fbe1497209cfb9f26d419d92a31a | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x23ba6893bf11ac39eac06d3e373f9656d46193c07d52f8fabcd5ed3651231289 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-22 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? | 77,964,091 | 77,964,091 |
31be7c2f553371da3b3e199577b00bd0f2168355 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x389d3c564fe9c865e379c60acb1e172d9545e54db9ef49cad5bbaa8b3f223d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | uef-bel-mac-2025-10-10 | Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? | 77,964,091 | 77,964,091 |
bfbe2bfd41c76ece275079d1296ae7727faafd9a | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x6bb229fa489c7999ed55bfe4ea85fef44ec7c9ccf76d94c5e30147f27c7d2860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | uef-isl-fra-2025-10-13 | Will France win on 2025-10-13? | 77,964,091 | 77,964,091 |
8356c4f7f67d942c20825d54170de5b1f1831b79 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xcd70fe17286d33c6e94d70f3f5cc8a3c82c7b641e77e4cf9709bfff8b1360bee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-16? | Event: lal-mal-bar-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | mls-aus-laf-2025-10-12 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-12? | 77,964,091 | 77,964,091 |
b863a1e5a5e458197f55cbfa93bf6d629ca790d8 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x0eb0d3c30973d7aefbbcc646ae090b7c03afd2989bf16645e4cf7e26ebec7427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | Event: bun-bay-lei-2025... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? | 77,964,093 | 77,964,093 |
6dc97859799bbecfb067ccfad105b45c557046b7 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | Event: bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | 78,048,186 | 78,048,186 |
aeada5841e56862c0380d07a1949d6dfa6ef3e1c | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x7a4e6f409ae8caec46959ad38fa4b7d176adcf63b58de5b8a379f621e0eaffc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | Event: bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-ba... | no | 1 | uel-cel3-stu4-2025-10-23 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-10-23? | 78,091,507 | 78,091,507 |
af0169d75498b8c95d8656e1f8492d8238f1a78c | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x6697c6f61a08a83fd75088561481a2c6a05ad05079b96c3e71d0ff4fe2ff177f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-08-22? | Event: fl1-psg-ang-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23? | Event: fl1-ly... | yes | 1 | ucol-cry-aek-2025-10-23 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-23? | 78,091,538 | 78,091,538 |
d699e88ff953a3c2ce6e5f64de961b08a338d772 | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x54fbcf77bcb18ad0fbd79d85a51e16df4c4ec51bb2c2e8c7522e85fdcaf007e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23? | Event: fl1-lyo-met-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | Event: sea-cag-fio-2025-0... | no | 1 | mex-asl-nec-2025-10-26 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-26? | 78,221,601 | 78,221,601 |
ee5578c27c2407d0262b6d4a895f3ed979bd06ef | 0x2018174da1be0e5c84608502436dfe348bcd3699 | 0x516e1eb968c32403ff8b3fc54675559c1970b05b1f28e743298ea3b9953ddd93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-23? | Event: fl1-lyo-met-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | Event: sea-cag-fio-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on September ... | no | 1 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,263,729 | 78,263,729 |
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