sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56747284a84769699dcc7a4af66154b7e1f37b24 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x9f4528ac26f2b4921fb2d8bad9ceaed81cfb401ccd356ebfe6d6b2d4d8918462 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | who-bailed-out-sbf | Did Jaan Tallinn bail out SBF? | 39,038,744 | 39,338,331 |
a0aaa99b7aaa2f524dfa2e9fc219a52f88f5088f | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x40821ece7cc6d2c472c92beb6b44ae23cb9fcfa2c937a815d2755a17f94588a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | who-bailed-out-sbf | Did Dustin Moskovitz bail out SBF? | 39,038,820 | 39,038,820 |
2eb5129574e02fedbc8d94b863b63971b4375573 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xa503abaac644c1fc04441d55b405cb0fd10db611c3fb6e1ab2e01a50822c8bc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | bidens-state-of-the-union-will-he-mention | Will Biden say "Folks" during his SOTU? | 39,040,366 | 39,045,597 |
9014a772187bcb880e69961288ec855141f47111 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0e2e0daf4bd99e12d1ef7f4b5409e50aa1111e006a6a2b538ea3b31287f46759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0.969643 | will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31 | Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31? | 39,117,081 | 39,117,081 |
7c493d708d2a7f3bcade1333246537b785e5c835 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb5858726a0b48b44465ee6c6d0d8fc913bde224ebb1045a537a687cfe1171222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | yes | 0.910245 | will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by | Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? | 39,117,154 | 39,117,154 |
273da63c086c445b7c6a87d1a014428b7fe55082 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x5fe346d7a7606c650e2372897944ffde36c914bfbecc29352746f06620fcfeba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | will-the-price-of-eth-be-above-1700-on-february-10 | Will the price of $ETH be above $1700 on February 10? | 39,124,401 | 39,124,401 |
e60823b28dfefa062d42fb77b656e183e698cc4b | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x550a7ebc802cf03064914d8bf5f7cbecd63428a9ed1090bb797147025bb38f7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | super-bowl-props | Will Rihanna's last song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Diamonds"? | 39,230,329 | 39,275,025 |
acea1972e404e059cd5188fed2806f1eeb309324 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xe207e088c702b7d76147384ecd8942ecd7fe6a15237c570ca7b3c53a7618c122 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | super-bowl-props | Will Rihanna's first song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Don't Stop The Music"? | 39,230,373 | 39,230,373 |
ac64f0488cb722c32c56146fbf319e8f3ed68676 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x1bdd0e463f0cf033656b3695164a1ccbb5d355f72a7b26f4c2f4df5f7d287834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023? | 39,491,990 | 44,550,743 |
2e32c452693f8994af57b8adc1d878c6032950e9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x02823013ae4e640b31d88eef165a8021ab7b6300ca0adbf975d72dedd626bf0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | fury | 0 | boxing-jake-paul-vs-tommy-fury | Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury | 39,751,489 | 39,751,489 |
b9de5260f6a70da675e15cf2c63b1235a6c43356 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xd756bcb0e45767150787bb3ff9020660e7ab8791d5635c2f8295dd0cc7c67047 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | yes | 0.000428 | will-joe-biden-file-to-run-for-president-by | Will Joe Biden file to run for president by March 31, 2023? | 39,767,799 | 39,767,799 |
ba023bf6a69c800e0580960db594ff27af047f08 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x85d63e80d47857c277a5cb3a4e3f897ec0887ddd34789d3b5cf15e73d1dbaa59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Will @elonmusk have 23,370 or fewer tweets on March 6? | 40,050,991 | 40,050,991 |
e31e26539809a6ddbc2799796461a3b1344d3d8d | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb8ba49435d3cb316e7ec828b50afa81f40df700c5b96f758196dc9f1b668bd31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Will @elonmusk have 23,371-23,390 tweets on March 6? | 40,051,031 | 40,198,513 |
e3a731db0be6ae91ca0ea25e687fecad01bf9af7 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf1beebeeba8caf761c16a58750b4049ffbcaa3252b4667d75b39da3787d2e446 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Will @elonmusk have 23,391-23,410 tweets on March 6? | 40,051,066 | 40,198,513 |
137b669e5763a61ae1a99100c32403a07eaa251d | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xd942e714f491918b62c38dde70b24910e679cdfd83e9726e8aa01dbc8962df6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Will @elonmusk have 23,451 or more tweets on March 6? | 40,051,089 | 40,051,089 |
260be8022624c1e7f09762e7ca8d4ab1b5037ce9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x47a53b22a1aeabde0bc95539e5f4bc966d92202e24fa97bf7872e88f37af3b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | who-will-win-the-2023-nigerian-presidential-election | Will Peter Obi be elected as President of Nigeria in the upcoming 2023 Presidential Election? | 40,201,362 | 43,306,035 |
4715291ed5016390aee489c49741b0c9185cc09a | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x6a82f6ce4f88005fc4edfb99acdc114ef76f0570a74df02583b3bde0aaa5e455 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | will-svb-be-acquired-by-monday-night | Will SVB be acquired by Monday night? | 40,275,789 | 40,275,789 |
17ab2a1080320f6e7630cf16db9192640b0f1fc2 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x91359b85594524c17c9e195c598a786dca88f4b0f974d1883852e75a4772b4ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 1 | will-uninsured-svb-depositors-get-all-their-money-back-by-june-30 | Will uninsured SVB depositors get all their money back by June 30? | 40,317,255 | 40,317,255 |
d9bf26669855dacff51249b90700023e3bcf7509 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf9dc196e6271178f055f53f952175fe3589f62b16905c48b166f4bb46555e09f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0.014981 | john-wick-chapter-4-opening-weekend | Will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' gross more than $60 million domestically on its opening weekend? | 40,730,790 | 40,730,790 |
d16e1c57c1516cfd941bbe4b28d1c7a5bcdcab1c | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0f72c2f02560b7b49542249c3ba32a5eabe86de8353ba36717187e67c2c17e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | kelly | 1 | wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Wisconsin Supreme Court: Protasiewicz (D) vs. Kelly (R) | 41,191,294 | 41,191,294 |
d0170b329908aba283cf8e591bcc72a4ee3c20b6 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x473044239134e1861b709fe7865154b6b32d77b200626f86d55feaec98986659 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | yes | 1 | chicago-mayor-margin-of-victory-5 | Chicago Mayor Margin of Victory >5%? | 41,209,198 | 42,197,633 |
db531ca020920c4eae39597494c42330838fa911 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x3461f6a15726b1a7f4748495f9b61ddee1ee703d94b0d0153d26b6a7095a1fbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | adesanya | 0 | ufc-287 | UFC 287: Who will win - Pereira or Adesanya? | 41,314,325 | 41,321,798 |
57dc6e5e1cc62b356cdce47608ec02768878a7b2 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf405c52bb90c9a81a2b7cba5788d588c8fbf36fc505f046dd60b4ac676a572c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | will-eth-moon-after-shanghai | Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? | 41,461,099 | 41,824,126 |
94bc9bcfeaba0ac8ede64d5ccd581ad0d4251179 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x62ec45c53af365e82fb3e3424a227f01e078eea3bbfe2797e3547d8ee80723bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 0 | will-trump-have-a-blue-checkmark-on-april-30 | Will Trump have a Blue checkmark on April 30? | 41,843,889 | 41,843,889 |
be93a9ed9e6575b3627f933d359e9f5f405274cf | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb26988395cf64bd8f3c2a84467ad01df73270e2c07102e1cb18589315268c8b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL Sunday: Buccaneers vs. Cardinals | Event: nfl-week-16 | Choice: buccaneers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be fede... | no | 1 | wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | 42,197,633 | 42,197,633 |
cd1d9450bb0ca5ad3d8309d902c963c9c81a15c5 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x150394ee8ac690c4d3ac353158ed4dac01a72234b4b4086c66dab4ef3ebfd2f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PredictIt still support trading on February 17? | Event: will-predictit-still-support-trading-on-february-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be federally charged by March 31? | Event: will-sam-trabucco-be-federally-charged-by-march-31 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 0 | sui-airdrop-by-may-15 | Sui Airdrop by May 15? | 42,587,225 | 42,627,695 |
6136e559066a737ac8e07bf2fe6da21cc3f0219b | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x9825975fbc06e47dd0dc52f2bb5065a4ce1abb2471138416765a25df2c25bc61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Trabucco be federally charged by March 31? | Event: will-sam-trabucco-be-federally-charged-by-march-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0004323463467086279
2. Question: NBA: Lakers vs. Pacers (02/02/2023) | Event: nba-dailies-02022023 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: NBA:... | no | 0 | desantis-presidential-twitter-space-will-he-mention | Will DeSantis mention "Trump" during his Twitter Space? | 43,125,249 | 43,269,437 |
22f190f7f4219f0a367a5fd22e3ded76d018dadb | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xdf133b78858e3a9002d09b785f2c87a83360f7d529852011a1f9e01bdf675fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NBA: Lakers vs. Pacers (02/02/2023) | Event: nba-dailies-02022023 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: NBA: Hornets vs. Pistons (02/03/2023) | Event: nba-dailies-02032023 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Did Kevin O'Leary bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | ... | no | 0 | who-will-be-ceo-at-the-end-of-successions-s4-finale | Will Kendall Roy be CEO at the end of Succession S4? | 43,270,545 | 43,275,658 |
caf928cd91ec52d00d76a469c644e8f200adf43c | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xa232e5e080358dd9d54d9a3f7b84eb3cf9695fd3ff150c3a43ffd92d3effcf2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NBA: Hornets vs. Pistons (02/03/2023) | Event: nba-dailies-02032023 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Did Kevin O'Leary bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Did Jaan Tallinn bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | us-debt-ceiling-hike-by | US debt ceiling hike by June 2? | 43,416,687 | 43,479,997 |
ba2f0a15d162f88a7159b881f5aa86ed51e92b6d | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xc4ed8fb513b2a6516a131a5880ce85daf9712b040b1dc941a4ee143798c2755f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did Kevin O'Leary bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Did Jaan Tallinn bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Did Dustin Moskovitz bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | will-the-missing-submarine-be-found-by-june-23 | Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | 44,216,136 | 44,349,628 |
28df3898521bdccfa91490a2c57eef7b955e3305 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0657359482ea5edbfaa1f4de81b38a4c0d24e8e0c29be7012b0629a95dabdffc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did Jaan Tallinn bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Did Dustin Moskovitz bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" during his SOTU? | Event: bidens-state-of-the-union-will-he-... | no | 0 | will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-june-30 | Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30? | 44,304,273 | 44,354,164 |
d014992da3e53765a6e5ac1cf78dba641f5aa9f6 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x34cf158202fa1b5ef7353355c78abead09788c12d0dd3e48d1809429b91f0405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did Dustin Moskovitz bail out SBF? | Event: who-bailed-out-sbf | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" during his SOTU? | Event: bidens-state-of-the-union-will-he-mention | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will George Santos remain in Congress through March... | no | 0 | will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters | Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | 45,721,420 | 52,466,535 |
90d13ebdbf337cde01aac0427fdd893106a018f9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb0e72032ff0155c4dfbf0d5b8da76c07f13b99c01f1fb8e3b84b2926c21594f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden say "Folks" during his SOTU? | Event: bidens-state-of-the-union-will-he-mention | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31? | Event: will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.969643399... | yes | 0.198404 | is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | 45,996,349 | 46,039,882 |
b82b070452236b473df0e85fdc68a61893c360e0 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x67f7f009e1c6a2e3dc9a737208c4fa56a99fc5c956af7b93b1929eb94a4e069b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31? | Event: will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9696433991827322
2. Question: Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? | Event: will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0 | trump-heavier-than-260-lbs | Trump heavier than 260 lbs? | 46,694,178 | 46,720,030 |
c92d911345845ceda50aeb43ad2e615231d7b3ca | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x2f0350583de2fca20f248cf40b9413b235c98c8f7f49e730d70a3ba9592d361b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? | Event: will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9102451565409827
2. Question: Will the price of $ETH be above $1700 on February 10? | Event: will-the-price-of-eth-be-above-1700-on-february-10 | Choice: no | Confiden... | jingtao | 0 | jingtao-vs-zata | Jingtao vs. Zata | 46,735,493 | 46,735,493 |
88e27530d8dd41582ae2decd497f69d08a8ba120 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xadae19743d9afd59f83a32b7c212c4da3cb03b15f27c7d36e4fed7a3e13eca98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of $ETH be above $1700 on February 10? | Event: will-the-price-of-eth-be-above-1700-on-february-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Rihanna's last song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Diamonds"? | Event: super-bowl-props | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0.075307 | will-trump-tweet-again-by | Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? | 46,752,392 | 46,891,128 |
d35f94a7928e23c0e97cfd2f86b5f0a36567eb0d | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xe8140072e30acc3b5a03ade9516aea484bf6848268fe15eb516af452d0ceaef6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rihanna's last song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Diamonds"? | Event: super-bowl-props | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Rihanna's first song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Don't Stop The Music"? | Event: super-bowl-props | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 0 | will-idalia-hit-florida-as-a-major-hurricane | Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? | 46,880,962 | 46,951,103 |
9846b3e88c1f961f75c2ac5490b1dc56dd76ec52 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x66c29371a1a0fd0e25d91aa0e46602ff0f2233559decd9848d119020d32dac77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rihanna's first song of the Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show be "Don't Stop The Music"? | Event: super-bowl-props | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-... | no | 0 | eth-above-1700-on-sep-1 | ETH above $1,700 on Sep 1? | 46,983,578 | 46,983,578 |
8e09b240a289b08945cd8d5d6b1c995795fc85f3 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0073da0811f826187f363345860007937d057996f9e12ca0bb42213b27ad0741 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023? | Event: world-leaders-will-they-remain-in-power-through-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury | Event: boxing-jake-paul-vs-tommy-fury | Choice: fury | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | zuck | 1 | musk-vs-zuck-aug-31 | Musk vs. Zuck: Aug 31 | 47,005,959 | 47,005,959 |
7a96c231c37d5709ad39c39f7f868b1a24987167 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x2fa329f505aafb81f53e1bb4b77548101e409784811206285ce36ad10151e9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury | Event: boxing-jake-paul-vs-tommy-fury | Choice: fury | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden file to run for president by March 31, 2023? | Event: will-joe-biden-file-to-run-for-president-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00042788859495423575
3. Questio... | no | 0 | fed-interest-rates-september-2023 | Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? | 47,072,670 | 47,199,363 |
93c4f7ea4517bad069276af691b2fa69ec2144ed | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x50b5f1322e2e63af93bcb99284aa4c15b17175a5062009332681e565e4c6a2bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden file to run for president by March 31, 2023? | Event: will-joe-biden-file-to-run-for-president-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00042788859495423575
2. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,370 or fewer tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choi... | no | 0 | taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | 47,200,816 | 48,806,248 |
c1851f88770511d9fe183e2924d07e9bd6af37fd | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x805bfeece3427af65cc6eacfc2424593a7008cdb9743cbe1144bc1de1d164312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,370 or fewer tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,371-23,390 tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 0 | will-mrbeast-hit-200-million-subscribers-by | Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? | 47,239,181 | 48,370,672 |
da16b18ea82d40bd08019b773c099b1ea4e92a65 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x5348a81e17295f4a5f75fa10a14b9e59bfd6f8df14f0caaec09bf7cc45a4ba14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,371-23,390 tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,391-23,410 tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | will-mitch-mcconnell-zone-out-again-by-october-1 | Will Mitch McConnell zone out again by October 1? | 47,239,198 | 47,239,198 |
a1eea37a3f42170da9e5167de89e8915f43b2739 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x54f44556c2ac959845dbdc9b5759a02ddad771661af63f73fb8053ef1c63638d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,391-23,410 tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,451 or more tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | 47,659,652 | 47,999,208 |
7cbe0a4309786ba9f949393c4434e4a47b2d3e3b | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x17b450c4c7b5fa6e0375448eda18093cd3eed4e8de4d34705037807dea748d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @elonmusk have 23,451 or more tweets on March 6? | Event: how-many-tweets-will-elonmusk-have-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Peter Obi be elected as President of Nigeria in the upcoming 2023 Presidential Election? | Event: who-will-win-the-2023-nigerian-presid... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "China" be said 15 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,061,732 | 48,061,917 |
1b0f7a58b9adb70f86da423e4bf93810126a11bf | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xc1cd2d17f5336c1cf39f6cd41dc7b3a1d186bdb0fb01ab3eb5e57e7cea592e1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Peter Obi be elected as President of Nigeria in the upcoming 2023 Presidential Election? | Event: who-will-win-the-2023-nigerian-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will SVB be acquired by Monday night? | Event: will-svb-be-acquired-by-monday-night | Choice:... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,061,823 | 48,096,637 |
53bed3999547ad135cd4e95092e84d51a21c7646 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xc9e0ddd444de41f937579a73ab3b28c0944a5e9b273e991ef3bc7ad8aa57a2da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SVB be acquired by Monday night? | Event: will-svb-be-acquired-by-monday-night | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will uninsured SVB depositors get all their money back by June 30? | Event: will-uninsured-svb-depositors-get-all-their-money-back-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "Biden" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,062,140 | 48,096,637 |
f9d0e3a295041a0ee0972e14b479de9cdd3a3cec | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xbee1510c050436844abbb21d02178d4335bed31c086ba4a49472516bd12b3c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will uninsured SVB depositors get all their money back by June 30? | Event: will-uninsured-svb-depositors-get-all-their-money-back-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' gross more than $60 million domestically on its opening weekend? | Event: john-... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will anyone say "Obama" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,062,146 | 48,081,241 |
937c027fdbfa13261e666601100b283a3ec10d92 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf17c3951822d5f593ac9b4df3bed2df28b282107a24324beef697b3bb9e48384 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' gross more than $60 million domestically on its opening weekend? | Event: john-wick-chapter-4-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.014980755184321237
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Protasiewicz (D) vs. Kelly (R) | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-elect... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will anyone say "woke" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,062,153 | 48,096,637 |
8e0aacc2aca6f0f71608b6fb0279a57e38d0d2e7 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xe76f7f7e64f0a5a994c9441652fc59b6f5544e57900192ccce7983cfc8357cf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Protasiewicz (D) vs. Kelly (R) | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: kelly | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Chicago Mayor Margin of Victory >5%? | Event: chicago-mayor-margin-of-victory-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 287: Who will win -... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "inflation" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,062,162 | 48,096,637 |
76ead751db498b0bb22366b39e9fe605460f9907 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x004fa10262eb78871592a93f18aa2aa30dcae3fc3ef430677b741b5d2ae6aaca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Chicago Mayor Margin of Victory >5%? | Event: chicago-mayor-margin-of-victory-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 287: Who will win - Pereira or Adesanya? | Event: ufc-287 | Choice: adesanya | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? | Event: will-eth-moon-af... | no | 0 | 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "Ukraine" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | 48,064,595 | 48,064,595 |
617c684a1b25b6267366eb6b0fe5978c96503ac6 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x415ee0c01ba8f22bc31de456bbe26de539c790c758b9ab932bba1b6be3c510cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 287: Who will win - Pereira or Adesanya? | Event: ufc-287 | Choice: adesanya | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? | Event: will-eth-moon-after-shanghai | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump have a Blue checkmark on April 30? | Event: will-trump-ha... | yes | 0.999979 | will-the-sec-approve-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-by | Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? | 48,072,073 | 48,072,073 |
c1dcc8f4d4377cbf1a7d2391ce183efaa1230004 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb55cf4ce77fdce54f59d242883e5e62faed98389d2271e1c964ea6b95cf0851b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH moon after Shanghai? | Event: will-eth-moon-after-shanghai | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump have a Blue checkmark on April 30? | Event: will-trump-have-a-blue-checkmark-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the ma... | no | 0 | will-newsom-announce-feinsteins-replacement-by-october-2 | Will Newsom announce Feinstein's replacement by October 2? | 48,213,952 | 48,251,762 |
8f4215f160c81c286bc9c59d05da61c325d575eb | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x1acfccfe1321cb4076e140bf9c835d32ef3195d8ab2b3aa600841ff4b72fc7bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump have a Blue checkmark on April 30? | Event: will-trump-have-a-blue-checkmark-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 0 | any-hostage-deal-brokered-with-hamas-by-nov-1 | Any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by Nov 1? | 48,533,138 | 48,971,834 |
0e47fcf850c288778d48f751f4c7ddd6ed63f88f | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xff4bfde8a6ea2a52cebb815f0b58ece418b265d18b39c035de3309f918196411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Sui Airdrop by May 15? | Event: sui-airdrop-by-may-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will DeSantis mention "Trump" during ... | no | 0 | will-mahmoud-abbas-still-be-president-of-the-state-of-palestine-by-the-end-of-2023 | Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023? | 48,533,497 | 51,807,181 |
b4143b15199909e9b8b3282d2069d017643635cc | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x4a27a622855871832c75a9236ac885ed99413a6932dcbc46b5051574368c6922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sui Airdrop by May 15? | Event: sui-airdrop-by-may-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will DeSantis mention "Trump" during his Twitter Space? | Event: desantis-presidential-twitter-space-will-he-mention | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Kendall Roy be CEO at the end... | no | 0 | israeli-troops-on-the-ground-in-gaza-by-the-end-of-this-week | Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza by the end of this week? | 48,533,578 | 48,683,964 |
34fe8ef2fc9ed1593fa2981cac60b26bd4c9f988 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x7b4a2dc54aec61b605f2738f03c67acbc1ab81b67322056c111ee900a759a6f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeSantis mention "Trump" during his Twitter Space? | Event: desantis-presidential-twitter-space-will-he-mention | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kendall Roy be CEO at the end of Succession S4? | Event: who-will-be-ceo-at-the-end-of-successions-s4-finale | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 0.000293 | will-the-us-publicly-state-that-iran-was-directly-involved-with-the-recent-attack-on-israel-in-2023 | Will the US publicly state that Iran was directly involved with the recent attack on Israel in 2023? | 48,533,587 | 48,533,587 |
55181516af3c5f4d3f3f2841476e172b66bdfb33 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x2bccda07440e97cf86b165698c08cdd022755053ff1a1b2a03e4d35b8cc5beef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kendall Roy be CEO at the end of Succession S4? | Event: who-will-be-ceo-at-the-end-of-successions-s4-finale | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US debt ceiling hike by June 2? | Event: us-debt-ceiling-hike-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the missing submarine... | no | 0 | will-bashar-al-assad-still-be-in-power-in-syria-by-the-end-of-2023 | Will Bashar al-Assad still be in power in Syria by the end of 2023? | 48,533,649 | 51,810,592 |
b9e58b27c7da34ee1b73a35f27fc3ad205ed35c6 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xc3f0534aee267159c9d35ffdebfd9c53bde5b937650ee15e92dcde7ee5b2dc12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US debt ceiling hike by June 2? | Event: us-debt-ceiling-hike-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | Event: will-the-missing-submarine-be-found-by-june-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June ... | no | 0 | will-netanyahu-still-be-prime-minister-of-israel-by-the-end-of-2023 | Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? | 48,533,661 | 51,807,908 |
30fd1e264938916989df3c490b46828ddd741fcb | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x578367b882d56ea866d2b13568748a084fd5b8dd392ae21af42e391c76d61d0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? | Event: will-the-missing-submarine-be-found-by-june-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30? | Event: will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will GPT-4 hav... | yes | 0.000007 | saudi-and-israel-peace-deal-by-march-2024 | Saudi and Israel peace deal by March 2024? | 48,536,781 | 48,536,781 |
87b58c78ff71a96ab0b46791bcdc1e5a98ee14c9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xb95e044737e8d594bedafa5b51d66d14b1ce876a7d9c239372591b4de61f72a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30? | Event: will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-by-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | Event: will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Eve... | no | 0 | us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | US military intervention by Oct 31? | 48,566,549 | 49,588,520 |
5ee087c224f2c8214ea1a0a884890b06336e489e | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0e1e0f0de9aaeb4865423f177dd84b11b8df5384504378ea655d3889332f465d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | Event: will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1984044597412463
3. Question: Trump heavier than 260 lbs? | ... | no | 1 | did-israeli-intelligence-have-advanced-knowledge-of-the-attack | Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? | 48,566,566 | 51,791,809 |
93a019ff471317549321a13a55564fee50780dd3 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xfe4e4e32dd082a0b5be773edd8322e12daaed2033e1e42979891e94a0860dc33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? | Event: is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1984044597412463
2. Question: Trump heavier than 260 lbs? | Event: trump-heavier-than-260-lbs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Jingtao vs. Zata | Event: jingtao-vs-zata... | no | 0 | will-israel-have-full-control-of-its-territory-on-nov-1 | Will Israel have full control of its territory on Nov 1? | 48,642,550 | 48,642,550 |
1a5899290708b1ad8dcd375b5b97faab7f5110a5 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x53956aa482bfec9fa6c0d03e0f48f1ae76af05847e2fcbf11b74797f78edeaa0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump heavier than 260 lbs? | Event: trump-heavier-than-260-lbs | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jingtao vs. Zata | Event: jingtao-vs-zata | Choice: jingtao | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? | Event: will-trump-tweet-again-by | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $100m opening weekend? | 48,806,248 | 48,806,248 |
35ee038dc84f88f2153fb41bee14cc06a42ad6ef | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xbb01d3f4a8bdf91c79f9933fafc0ac1ab4555edda4448f93b7b15d481fc0cb65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jingtao vs. Zata | Event: jingtao-vs-zata | Choice: jingtao | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? | Event: will-trump-tweet-again-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.07530700966750416
3. Question: Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? | Event: will-idalia-hit-fl... | israel | 0.879765 | israel-or-palestine-responsible-for-gaza-hospital-explosion | Israel or Palestine responsible for Gaza hospital explosion? | 48,853,220 | 48,853,220 |
d884e918c684a728de144d6c700d01cc02986c66 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xbda171771e1f6570d2dadb8e8bedd87c62cf5eda3d11639074d39e4e98a07ca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet again by Aug 31? | Event: will-trump-tweet-again-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.07530700966750416
2. Question: Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? | Event: will-idalia-hit-florida-as-a-major-hurricane | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH above $1,700 on ... | no | 0 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be 21+ named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 48,901,850 | 48,901,850 |
9387d1ce88e27ef3a0d635ff4a7fdcd9063f40a9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xdde2dcf805780d8c066fcd3ca0fa9b1fcc419df6cb1418f2244808a2f8274997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? | Event: will-idalia-hit-florida-as-a-major-hurricane | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: ETH above $1,700 on Sep 1? | Event: eth-above-1700-on-sep-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Musk vs. Zuck: Aug 31 | Event: musk-vs-zuck-a... | no | 0 | will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-oct-31 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? | 48,933,071 | 49,436,497 |
d2e91c2693b0efe71c3af38c2a0508fa018bf750 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xc3cb1629b405202f569fe920cefc87cd3860968027d37e7a7dc89acfb848385b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ETH above $1,700 on Sep 1? | Event: eth-above-1700-on-sep-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Musk vs. Zuck: Aug 31 | Event: musk-vs-zuck-aug-31 | Choice: zuck | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? | Event: fed-interes... | no | 0 | will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-sunday | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? | 48,969,371 | 49,069,266 |
e6b99c579a44b330309cac767ce3dfec986d8562 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x8ef54176b03ffef0b1d38a23698e6932e0fb055b4fb9564f9f98b2f47c2ee0ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Musk vs. Zuck: Aug 31 | Event: musk-vs-zuck-aug-31 | Choice: zuck | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a... | no | 0 | will-argentina-presidential-election-go-to-a-second-round | Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round? | 48,971,516 | 49,069,266 |
f526a29412c57c4135b4cb91af236527d2484bfb | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xa0641f9e7027a182f1a3e107befe4de1f3cb8c7067f2babd2e1d2de215201545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0 bps after its September meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Choice: ... | no | 0 | will-rafah-border-crossing-open-for-humanitarian-aid-by-sunday | Will Rafah border crossing open for humanitarian aid by Sunday? | 48,973,522 | 48,995,392 |
73aa482a8e036402f930d30d8372a192f484eee1 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x41a09bfef86f1126b57d05692f11cae07716c5e28b88e7aa6d4fc640e2ed769b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? | Event: will-mrbeast-hit-200-million-subscribers-by | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 0.182641 | argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | 49,035,823 | 50,196,257 |
58ae5982711d17cad4b5d66f8ccfefd537ca2262 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x6e39927e33d4f24c01b9aedbfcc46f8b504856123016330ec9afcbfe73e606b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast Hit 200 Million Subscribers by Halloween? | Event: will-mrbeast-hit-200-million-subscribers-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Mitch McConnell zone out again by October 1? | Event: will-mitch-mcconnell-zone-out-again-by-october-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 1 | will-the-us-rescue-at-least-one-american-hostage-from-hamas-by-oct-31 | Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31? | 49,089,656 | 49,089,656 |
7543730170cd21e830dfce56750621253a146123 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x26c77208c81a1453fcab3ac7c99ced140b85d258da9b3d4f53899fe4466af16f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mitch McConnell zone out again by October 1? | Event: will-mitch-mcconnell-zone-out-again-by-october-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | Event: will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will "China" be said 15 or ... | yes | 0.000001 | will-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-2023 | Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? | 49,187,843 | 50,306,109 |
2d226790d8ce405cb36eac7300dc974e4735030a | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x1d79444da1091b37fdcb0966c2b5c7cd3f85ea5001770e42520c5172c99ae6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | Event: will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "China" be said 15 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will "Trump" be said by ev... | no | 0 | will-apple-announce-m3-chip-at-its-scary-fast-event | Will Apple announce M3 Chip at its "Scary Fast" event? | 49,236,300 | 49,436,497 |
35845a76c04cc57f4ec819dd81c0af84bff43f4f | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x80fb62ce52fd7832010a24f70715d53755a66400117a0ef08547b33291d73f38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "China" be said 15 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | yes | 0.000003 | layerzero-airdrop-in-2023 | LayerZero airdrop in 2023? | 49,616,574 | 49,645,341 |
478d223c49c79e91f1a6704c51b96fa0d7645f1e | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x1f116bd36976395aba4319abea038ed13b013a86c54a78d1198426b2175817cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "Biden" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win? | 49,715,538 | 50,167,274 |
816328b3c494d1fb022c745f47fd6f1ca2c48676 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x850e2dd96f7e0a553c831dbb0917cb7c9ffd17d687f47f2a3c07c73615521810 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Biden" be said by every candidate in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will anyone say "Obama" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | 3rd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Will "Trump" be said by every candidate in the 3rd RNC primary debate? | 49,715,989 | 49,715,989 |
5695fd2ac37580e4607baec15c3f6bdfec9e6080 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x7cff35ca88a85980e39c6b20ed13fbb0b8015df828fed4aea3263578fe80193f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will anyone say "Obama" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will anyone say "woke" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will "inflation"... | no | 0 | ilya-still-at-openai-on-jan-1 | Ilya still at OpenAI on Jan 1? | 50,111,373 | 50,111,373 |
8c6b8031fffd5c953672d76d93a92a95da55a29c | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x9e3a7908d6cec4f6f66b7b6bc9a49709dc5ac4b1a2a91081a29b23801eee2dea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will anyone say "woke" in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "inflation" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | no | 0.000181 | will-x-start-charging-all-users | Will X start charging all users? | 50,308,754 | 50,308,754 |
037c47bb47b55cb23fa61280591041fb26deef85 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x278ef9e34bb097efef3f8198414f3039017a6a29890a3b9bb3ff10464268009d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "inflation" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will "Ukraine" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by | Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31? | 51,807,908 | 51,807,908 |
43dacfda1a8196905f2e7c1e0fd93a13b96bd6c2 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x32c02dd293eae94b38ad90b6c5cc237c29d0cbdc0d528a0b98d3ae0fda35c1d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Ukraine" be said 10 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | Event: 2nd-gop-debate-mention-markets | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? | Event: will-the-sec-approve-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-by | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 0 | will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | 51,846,929 | 52,066,638 |
1661c1c5054454f508adb24e2700bb143367d1ac | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf4fcf99bb9e9d20406efb081c8ba004c00a4f27d5f6a73c0e7d0b7da22916782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by December 31? | Event: will-the-sec-approve-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999787065005149
2. Question: Will Newsom announce Feinstein's replacement by October 2? | Event: will-newsom-announce-feinsteins-replacement-by-o... | no | 1 | who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Will the Epstein documents name Bill Clinton? | 51,944,608 | 51,944,608 |
a964da124ab612863b68502f90cce5a0b93b912a | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xfa45365e7a6a93f27d4fd7421de6d086a558d6e0590a8b67873c65d322ab9be3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newsom announce Feinstein's replacement by October 2? | Event: will-newsom-announce-feinsteins-replacement-by-october-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by Nov 1? | Event: any-hostage-deal-brokered-with-hamas-by-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Will the Epstein documents name Donald Trump? | 51,944,608 | 51,944,608 |
2ad2df0f1505d78cdbb920948bd88c9f3358f9d7 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x24d8bca52f2abed3e1e566a279e4033734f6032f32b0624cc19ba971549c64aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Any hostage deal brokered with Hamas by Nov 1? | Event: any-hostage-deal-brokered-with-hamas-by-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023? | Event: will-mahmoud-abbas-still-be-president-of-the-state-of-... | no | 0 | will-vivek-drop-out-of-presidential-race-before-february | Will Vivek drop out of presidential race before February? | 51,997,781 | 51,997,781 |
604992c7f5e12cbbe0a588b53f997c736e666ae2 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x5ad929efeca3b1ee8efaf9532af1952b0d308e2e5b4c74b957e6f3b9c9fc2f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mahmoud Abbas still be President of the State of Palestine by the end of 2023? | Event: will-mahmoud-abbas-still-be-president-of-the-state-of-palestine-by-the-end-of-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza by the end of this week? | Event: is... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-1hr-after-etf-approval | $BTC price <$40,000 1 hour after ETF approval? | 52,146,237 | 52,146,237 |
71b94ac674945fa33e9be97d57e052183bc6c817 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x2073651de484121bddaf813852fef10999f1ed861576d6e82ff4c7f0328d1429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza by the end of this week? | Event: israeli-troops-on-the-ground-in-gaza-by-the-end-of-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the US publicly state that Iran was directly involved with the recent attack on Israel in 2023? | Event: will-th... | no | 0.999428 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | 52,180,536 | 52,180,569 |
990fd6a6d57b05e0bda7c089a9a29aff6181101a | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x197e52016126cccca59fd9f30ec9bbaf4e74627b2c6ff9e442898396bd19fca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US publicly state that Iran was directly involved with the recent attack on Israel in 2023? | Event: will-the-us-publicly-state-that-iran-was-directly-involved-with-the-recent-attack-on-israel-in-2023 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0002925477241176657
2. Question: Will Bashar al-Assad... | no | 1 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? | 52,183,632 | 52,287,408 |
fd534221bcc3e07867f0efa55933318ab79e329b | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xba5aeda66b933e677f0b246c81448631e613f5c4394697bb634cdc907390dd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bashar al-Assad still be in power in Syria by the end of 2023? | Event: will-bashar-al-assad-still-be-in-power-in-syria-by-the-end-of-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? | Event: will-netanyahu-still-be-pri... | no | 0.944145 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | 52,289,103 | 52,302,146 |
b43c1e92614b9dae134ebbceb6b26881d680f6e9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x7aad06ab25a73359f3212edd60bfd9d57a5c175c4704476efe7518091db4d700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netanyahu still be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2023? | Event: will-netanyahu-still-be-prime-minister-of-israel-by-the-end-of-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Saudi and Israel peace deal by March 2024? | Event: saudi-and-israel-peace-deal-by-march-2024 | Choice:... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% | 52,296,998 | 52,296,998 |
b732ae3a6468f2448209852be57ef6ed858ffd69 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x8f41b19c9df3d15bbc3343c2c5eb9281ad8f60828cb2253f52104aaceebb40d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Saudi and Israel peace deal by March 2024? | Event: saudi-and-israel-peace-deal-by-march-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.4389690515716896e-06
2. Question: US military intervention by Oct 31? | Event: us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Did Israeli... | no | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,376,605 | 52,392,567 |
1900b51f1208d9fd0fccdc1471c2987a90219273 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0dc0b876d74b75b00816372c42de709a9b4f6e57497200c27bc91636148fd4e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military intervention by Oct 31? | Event: us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? | Event: did-israeli-intelligence-have-advanced-knowledge-of-the-attack | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Will Ron DeSantis be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | 52,389,101 | 52,389,101 |
727eac2194800c0c1d40d149590bf1838c41d2bc | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xf835bd267f0216789e93f0ba9c93efccade41cc65a87b7f4eeb235b7f5de0fa9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? | Event: did-israeli-intelligence-have-advanced-knowledge-of-the-attack | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel have full control of its territory on Nov 1? | Event: will-israel-have-full-control-of-its-territory-... | no | 1 | next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Will Nikki Haley be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | 52,389,138 | 52,389,138 |
a9b89fb58a6e29a38d5ebf5f884bf317f1648d08 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x729832336b1344aab2531ba0bfb192a674fce114004eb020d5bc3cd9bfcb40d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel have full control of its territory on Nov 1? | Event: will-israel-have-full-control-of-its-territory-on-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Ch... | no | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,392,575 | 52,392,575 |
3f205e3499476f7a29c35021c30a625a7592a867 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0xfe0d3ec264bf85733a175841fdc06f89d5292b604892ffd5b8df0a585f50319a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $100m opening weekend? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel or Palestine responsible for Gaza hospital explosion? | Event: israel-or-palestine-responsible-for-gaza-hospital-explo... | no | 0.944145 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | 52,416,870 | 52,416,870 |
030790d2312e9a51a834179f5a22caa54ca74fbc | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x6fcc8935a752cd687a7198e4982564dc27f635e524d71b5a6dbe7707033f0719 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel or Palestine responsible for Gaza hospital explosion? | Event: israel-or-palestine-responsible-for-gaza-hospital-explosion | Choice: israel | Confidence: 0.8797653958944281
2. Question: Will there be 21+ named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-... | no | 0 | will-pakistan-strike-iran-by-saturday | Will Pakistan strike Iran by Saturday? | 52,454,032 | 52,454,032 |
086257662a55df8f54fb958f924cbb27b9fdf738 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x0ebf9290c87facccf4b0d646b175e66cdeddd3d6fc887aee32b88a04e34ce939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 21+ named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? | Event: will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-... | no | 1 | tether-insolvent-in-2024 | Tether Insolvent in 2024? | 52,482,364 | 52,482,364 |
3e75970b8c45210fa568a9364d3dbf6aa833489e | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x10a059584aab30e7efb29f5bfb4d0348d0b0855603e448c4dbc7d1ef541727f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? | Event: will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-oct-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? | Event: will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive... | yes | 1 | of-elon-musk-tweets-between-january-10-16 | Will Musk tweet more than 525 times between Jan 10-16? | 52,482,434 | 52,482,434 |
42ffcc126fe993e8c88882d015221536b84500b9 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x64669793efb09a7320e5bf0d28ada846e8d378563a6eb0cec9812177fe215f43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? | Event: will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round? | Event: will-argentina-presidential-election-go-to-a-se... | yes | 1 | of-elon-musk-tweets-between-january-10-16 | Will Musk tweet less than 160 times between Jan 10-16? | 52,482,434 | 52,482,434 |
2efb0478d5d5c883fc7524ba64d3afaf0252f308 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x8c1450fae65956f2cf33427d994feed9f6f37e1a9794be10ae3ba2f34b7a6b8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round? | Event: will-argentina-presidential-election-go-to-a-second-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Rafah border crossing open for humanitarian aid by Sunday? | Event: will-rafah-border-crossing-open-for-humanitarian-a... | no | 0 | wif-listed-on-coinbase-or-binance | WIF listed on Coinbase or Binance? | 52,495,471 | 52,495,471 |
33ad52638acc24f9ba79d1ac65334c069f8d39a0 | 0x209c21d489b3154458937072e2fd37a0bb87d319 | 0x02bb794cff1a348f415d63ce463658ce7da4622919462d6f7a0066d19f93ff35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafah border crossing open for humanitarian aid by Sunday? | Event: will-rafah-border-crossing-open-for-humanitarian-aid-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Event: argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | C... | yes | 0.016837 | north-korea-nuke-by | North Korea nuke by March 31? | 52,561,979 | 55,455,664 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.