sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
be178adf5947db36432365cc280306c706ebe2ac | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0xceca96a0e5b88e69a1f4ee2c00fffd44476b70b8ce230e50a173fc7b7ee66779 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus vs. Udinese end in a draw? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choi... | yes | 1 | lib-rac-fla-2025-10-29 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-29? | 78,350,181 | 78,350,181 |
20b74fed120dd5b431db6e38f722bf724e820afe | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x21bed20d85e87128ba93e619002026a101b8d2625df86b00cf48c549fe8e828c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus vs. Udinese end in a draw? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Cho... | yes | 1 | aus-per-vic-2025-10-31 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,410,444 | 78,410,444 |
1d7820d8fc0845945df6af177aaaf7ca9247c7c4 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x45c4f744ad48f2402384f80950a82b4018f6bde10c3416de8c309d805d6d04c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | aus-per-vic-2025-10-31 | Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,410,444 | 78,410,444 |
a1f66f38e97307dc318d1273a634d91f2b6964bf | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x2a62d7f4e2154da708e07463a4aa22b168d10afe548ed81236cd77e39c843b7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-juv-udi-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 |... | no | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,412,410 | 78,412,410 |
d4fc0180d5c2c8321f0546c8e201da5e9f117e07 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x7bed87a7817e89069456bdfd554ef19c16dbeffeef57273490f24a48a7e017b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-met-rcl-2... | no | 1 | tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-31? | 78,422,284 | 78,422,284 |
0f7bb760b42905ff407775b0e33c832290a58b63 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0xbc32fb8e68917c22abe553167ba0a4993ba333e8640728ce2e6389d26f216724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1... | no | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | 78,426,944 | 78,426,944 |
e4d17c9e894eb57f6d48eb1ba0a302899013f8d1 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x2f422e5f45d7dbc197aed6a20fd0b5fe5cf050adad623a77242a89dfc3f31042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc... | yes | 1 | lal-get-gir-2025-10-31 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,267 | 78,427,267 |
5ab72322f8ed949fc3e40448f49052ed4581d504 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x28c0571f06f0f857f41e51cabc184a0cd4203dbabe939b1bc491ae84d44a3ffa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc-lil-2025-... | yes | 1 | lal-get-gir-2025-10-31 | Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,268 | 78,427,268 |
4525aaf375fb12d71b450c6452fbe1b51f7b85c3 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x96634633577ebc7500136dee2136f35454824deb4e74f8a116a707d83bc1f8d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Le Havre AC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? | Event: fl1-hac-s... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | 78,461,245 | 78,461,245 |
cb42780203f3aa6a389bd5d4f71db96855abae56 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x48f708ff3a0cfb627453f3ba90d5bfe68ded0106d5f8156584f5e0d1eba33435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-ogc-lil-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Le Havre AC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? | Event: fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Fulham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 78,464,084 | 78,464,084 |
bed5fbe137293f4433b4cb26b504a1f80bcd0645 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x3a774977a7c45f48e9838f4353c551e25d5eec0604dc1a772d232bd4cb19bffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Le Havre AC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? | Event: fl1-hac-sbr-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. ... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | 78,464,116 | 78,464,116 |
dce88448d7e5310f4d174f5ce2422dcfbc3ac6d8 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x0b3364f8f793047a5a13533bd5bb03bba05211f6f866f08d5d20bdd98ecabb64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29... | no | 1 | fl1-asm-pfc-2025-11-01 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,467,407 | 78,467,407 |
cc4826ef7f3804b91a6a4ae42ba027c8cfa6c5d4 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0xd4f9210dd2cf27ce8be5b5c144cb7439d8ecc35bb905816e0495a4ce4942dc1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-bha-ars-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a ... | no | 1 | ere-aja-her1-2025-11-01 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01? | 78,468,385 | 78,468,385 |
02bec2d9e20347940ce6a452190e28107ba5f703 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x5f5f0b66297b8f3f2c159d9d67bfce1be8cf7db6a3a131d5de1afb8745c571ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-int-fio-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-... | no | 1 | sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | 78,470,467 | 78,470,467 |
ceff8244278084b40dfc7317194bae35ccc8055c | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | Event: efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,470,762 | 78,470,762 |
d08f5a89167b4709a269a02bfff436b7ba3c597f | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x1c7e46c554ffecca57fff0f22f2a2c3ba9f7a5a518976179ad251468aeb8a1b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-cry-liv-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-gen-cre-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-... | no | 1 | por-gui-ben-2025-11-01 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-01? | 78,471,603 | 78,471,603 |
b4431c6ec4dcf22eec976482255f9954d3ec0722 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0xdcc14f14b46062ba6598902170838e0f99a7321f804bac63595451469980c290 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-gen-cre-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choic... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | 78,501,371 | 78,501,371 |
21c3e1c2a729b69464c652eb1666e2e659b58734 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x01467afa3046b3c9babfc73fef100fc735f441668c1da42b5a7da72a40061313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-tot-new-2025... | no | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-11-02 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? | 78,502,945 | 78,502,945 |
c5b494ebf652dcebfeb21e4e94309b54442ef938 | 0x1feb4363a0b519398bbceb3cf525d4d3658abdc1 | 0x1416c0389179eefb02518047d148320b97d84365d27c92044e0a27dbc977c7d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-bol-tor-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-tot-new-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-tot-new... | yes | 1 | bun-koe-hsv-2025-11-02 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02? | 78,504,618 | 78,504,618 |
64fa9c9dccfef7121e754b102c078bb00afa9444 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x8aa85754825c9d5b6beabfcffe0e4380565e847fb004769a497beba8b6a3499b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12?
Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | 31,772,949 | 43,274,838 |
b472986d71304f257e758118224c502de852b1a2 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x709f9c0b79c65bbda505cb915681a61e82b224fca8b94d60deffb5529f70af7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31?
Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the tar... | no | 0 | will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | 32,528,474 | 32,528,474 |
7d42985e1652b444935e626f676df937c4ed2711 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfc503f9c981b6b2dbf3e96561ca1a39f915a26876035035787e69e2180552e11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will US... | no | 0 | will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-september-15 | Will USD be worth more than EUR on September 15? | 33,163,328 | 36,751,880 |
f9ef903cefe75709631f36298c5e3a1bf458f99a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfe6a5bf8c7de10d7c744cf2195a379facdcf5989c477f4c29180568a51523251 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-2022 | Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022? | 33,354,338 | 38,296,037 |
6e377f29fd9ced8d5b49386b77b7c4b12ca833cd | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xddac406b76b46d7998a797fa984c7c7b04812db75b89ecfc49e2fd0d6b9b8a93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0 | will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-election | Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | 42,617,243 | 42,617,243 |
7430531f35a0030b489a34818e3541f821278ae4 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xb95e044737e8d594bedafa5b51d66d14b1ce876a7d9c239372591b4de61f72a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 0.257131 | us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | US military intervention by Oct 31? | 49,436,257 | 49,553,835 |
394017684ba81c8f0e85948bce34f0a9b98625c9 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x41a09bfef86f1126b57d05692f11cae07716c5e28b88e7aa6d4fc640e2ed769b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0.151272 | argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | 50,150,308 | 50,150,308 |
5eca11af32ef6dc658f4e8033415448df1c1bb40 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xea75c99dd7a3db869738e0e6cd1aaff98555ecc0f819d1018e6ebe6522156771 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | gta-6-release-date-by-end-of-year | GTA 6 release date by end of year? | 51,064,331 | 51,064,331 |
98064e5a37160c47ae59a5f76260f20b999be3b8 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x32c02dd293eae94b38ad90b6c5cc237c29d0cbdc0d528a0b98d3ae0fda35c1d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 0.170862 | will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | 51,948,391 | 51,949,671 |
20cc9dd1bc5e9c7c8943c62ad58ece1efd945a29 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 0.999917 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 51,957,056 | 51,957,056 |
335b6e4ac140dfaccad9beb590f9b302a30196cd | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x2073651de484121bddaf813852fef10999f1ed861576d6e82ff4c7f0328d1429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | 52,180,397 | 52,218,698 |
6c00f7706b8f70dc71820557f0c988334edc3b1a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x197e52016126cccca59fd9f30ec9bbaf4e74627b2c6ff9e442898396bd19fca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? | 52,185,556 | 52,475,051 |
e0ff4ead4fbcccc0c8785aa83bd47d4261ef6e4e | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfe0d3ec264bf85733a175841fdc06f89d5292b604892ffd5b8df0a585f50319a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | 52,398,928 | 52,398,928 |
556a28d9acf42f9239b789fc4f5a14e40289047b | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x664886144f47a74f32ec1e030345d25b3865ecd0c39427dac77490e2cbe196c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,398,943 | 52,398,943 |
798f0d519184ffb5a57cc35f9934ba9022d6061a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x729832336b1344aab2531ba0bfb192a674fce114004eb020d5bc3cd9bfcb40d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,398,954 | 52,398,954 |
c519565e3506d306fbe990c9e3af9468e810c418 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x8f41b19c9df3d15bbc3343c2c5eb9281ad8f60828cb2253f52104aaceebb40d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,398,970 | 52,398,970 |
ccf6701c4bee5ccf9839d1a76d7ee22e71058179 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa8f7ccc1a0299583b1bd8b8fa5a559964a1b9ab1a3ff75b60bcc69c722e3111c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% | 52,410,152 | 52,410,152 |
4a4cb1bf7d3b3f1ceaa01541230d2c752e0eacbe | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xd8f72016370aba96d815f86f27d242e30115589ca69a1cb8c9f19148234cbe7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 0.331115 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 35-40% | 52,413,934 | 52,413,934 |
3d281a245d863410907c17ae257b829c380bc49a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x4dd13b533072528934eefd9aa816fcc97253e7cd1d4f40c12769fd7f52c3e0fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0.259259 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 20-25% | 52,413,940 | 52,413,940 |
8f20809c773e17ac67ec4f4d66dc23d93a960cd0 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x3f860955f69ee121da47c2840509ada04b6776b95a1219335efa5dcffbac0815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 30-35% | 52,475,051 | 52,475,051 |
6b19f59183da75d88687c4f9eadec3e06389bd0f | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xdd9416a1ca64e689cd0787a801176885f65219a6c3cccb7faa0af66be6e1ce75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | 52,475,051 | 52,475,051 |
0d473fac75d67fb93a504ba57f74b0f0369d8187 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe5d5792995784f034f1c5a73e1885127ac7242186c23ad7883ca630a312615a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 25-30% | 52,475,066 | 52,475,066 |
9b1ee397bed850f95f05a93dc33f4e24eac908cc | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xf1c1fcc3efe839e5a022574c0263cb967ee3355f6b58edbca596958a8919343a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? | 52,553,856 | 52,553,856 |
8c338c4b6eafab5988f4419162bf8e46321ea0fa | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x7e799a35d58bbfe4f8e70b9ee908fb9f53f863f6cc93b1cc006e35221aa8647d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $10-30 billion? | 52,559,492 | 52,559,492 |
b47e8fac1c02bc7071da22d7eec7fe7d05e2d653 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xca92ec28e43948c3b41a87ea94c74aea851924e085ff624df9fb03d83e668109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $30-60 billion? | 52,560,516 | 52,560,516 |
64e965ae6613d00f3a85ebb1604e4f866e82d3f5 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x830fe8eb8ab09693af821fba6d1d2c5369a696715c029b978e06df41cc614390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | 52,590,238 | 52,709,609 |
9794702e09c15ebd114eac57a02c1f7548e5dd4e | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x27b1ab1f1c2832bbcfe847000e2f9eda0f482299767741c7e9c810f350a6a600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | 52,590,977 | 52,590,977 |
2a8ee73d7c949eff5ea48c523975dd1abf7422d8 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa4f2e923e78540bcf674d741ad1f13b29ed83a3dc3926a37807da6030dd23936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 0.197101 | how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k? | 52,635,503 | 52,635,503 |
f4289aa9d169a228b3a7a5835ed02840e850d320 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x5bf02e4c98dff597eaeeb71b710b57359140129031570a6bce5e8a4ef9299ada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | yes | 1 | how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k? | 52,635,507 | 52,635,507 |
3c8844e359c9c6f8dd26db138ee78e21d7fbfd94 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfdf2669c3731b08e4e0e149ef4d5a23df301339e1112155fc36b677c0f510214 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 0.426752 | how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Will MrBeast not say how much his Twitter post with over 124m views made? | 52,635,565 | 52,635,565 |
5bb2f5b28f50001c303505b0c7ddf1d6a47a2bc3 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x8b639969c9a41ab89381df2c6adf41ab4f5bb1faf272a9ac883117f635e21cf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $ETH be above $1,700 on August 12? | Event: will-eth-be-above-1700-on-august-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will USD be worth mo... | no | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,703,395 | 52,703,395 |
48faa867c93aeef8af6c33d65544e889ead32fdd | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x9f48a05fb3f34c80866fc41729ec0b085dba86c944df2b0400b925c31e56e233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on August 31? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on September 15? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,703,395 | 52,703,395 |
279539e64065dadc7aee47fec644d66b09d4e93a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x3d9733e702c2fde791ed222db26da97621640c744ac9a4f490b0d6102706a800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will USD be worth more than EUR on September 15? | Event: will-usd-be-worth-more-than-eur-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022? | Event: will-vladimir-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-2022 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 52,840,386 | 52,840,386 |
c5e933cf55f3a99481db948d1c337ebd1e95f671 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x420fcc123beef1d4cba887bd68a0c430b910683915daea32ecec0f8bd65fe2f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through 2022? | Event: will-vladimir-putin-remain-president-of-russia-through-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Event: will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-electi... | no | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | 52,873,825 | 52,873,825 |
a68d88656c8c7b5346b3c036d917bb9a305631a1 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x72302e55870853118f30b009d046a0b6d0c1b7428d2bdef7700a4f6131f78a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Event: will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US military intervention by Oct 31? | Event: us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.25713147150354326... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 7.5-10% | 52,893,895 | 52,893,895 |
c3a8e8859e9089b569d6043743966c87fc331af5 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x2e0c8712dc5df6a4cda1a6282847427bf291df6506c988d77ec0fffd5ae6eb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military intervention by Oct 31? | Event: us-military-intervention-by-oct-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.25713147150354326
2. Question: Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Event: argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1512717519090... | no | 1 | jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | 52,980,608 | 52,985,997 |
eed40aaf24e2127eec4fd36db260accee9a75f5f | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xb1067730b2b325d66eaece2945194614ccf691ca14ec0cf9a61f3a4d2ed3d713 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Event: argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1512717519090194
2. Question: GTA 6 release date by end of year? | Event: gta-6-release-date-by-end-of-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | us-response-to-irans-drone-attack-by-jan-31 | US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31? | 52,987,330 | 53,139,544 |
8b07b1c64ad1fbbd893c2afd2fb99c79251997d0 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa7aaf1cac60148943bd98e22a739f05cfa251cf75a12744df09c62abb88e71ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GTA 6 release date by end of year? | Event: gta-6-release-date-by-end-of-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17086185288841113
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presiden... | no | 1 | jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | 53,011,484 | 53,011,484 |
da404bc946b6ef4aa4a84a923f0c08e714fe5c66 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x43d7d4602d2c3ca67db94667152d0ed86c0b5151b6de4328daabf27e94698171 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17086185288841113
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999171999414574
3. Question: SEC ... | yes | 0.250824 | trump-wins-every-state-in-rep-nomination | Trump wins every state in Rep. Nomination? | 53,025,300 | 53,025,300 |
5ce63e03cfc727e4019faf631b8d0ed0f1995f14 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe91b26e02e0a35d164b243a1b1a70d5886441084e9da1f3f664f052730030cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999171999414574
2. Question: SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | Event: when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 0.556153 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 53,411,874 | 53,411,874 |
bf77c36d42a9e0dd327986f8adfffc3743129dde | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xbc3553ba6ce5afb4f10ced16b380c87ef3a25da0c5aea61060c563a4a1703f11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? | Event: when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? | Event: when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win th... | no | 0 | will-spacexs-starship-launch-before-march | Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? | 53,419,565 | 53,419,565 |
2375f86d7856e33099f08aa8affbbce49114d6bc | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfb57d64bb510045dc79fcbe515c1feaaaf6e18210d5cd2545b89a85d3ef57f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? | Event: when-will-bitcoin-etf-be-approved | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Wormhole token FDV less than 4 billion a week after airdrop? | 53,503,885 | 53,503,885 |
309fcb4eb4e2b73c6d50be2720bccfc5d5839d06 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x25ee65945ec1880c6c62eea7bcd33512d6de23f05ec9a555db332a931a74d22d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ramaswamy pla... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
047c92bbf5136a959bd4a9c64bf279665c4348bf | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x315804188956a5ece2ae6e7ebfcc6fdb3ef9e00c4dbdc8af41f705009c6baf07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
fb94f8d345eeb9f6d619d32d8b777178279b8d24 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x4774bdc661b14290b537019240c9d1c3b859126fe4e159636b8f461e0dcf78e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40%... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
514d56ca50aba4747006f258e29e3518fa8d27a4 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x9d8a92fee4fd3998176f1d5f90c072d614345c2082a40169d61abf05cb7a9b34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa ... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by less than 10% of the vote? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
9a16624315ca2c34e27dce74279bbcc36c0ba2f0 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa554b05cb355a7936c812ef93442ab5758bbd93d36766cf41ca6518cd0e20223 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 35-40% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33111480865224624
3. Question: Tr... | no | 1 | ben-armstrong-vs-more-light-who-will-win | Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
5dd0b3ab31a78d23a6721daa5aad773472035d77 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe6137f8637c8a9595dfec6e1f0133d3ab941846d7e80d3d33e5387f57bb5a37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 35-40% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33111480865224624
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 20-25% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.259259259259259... | yes | 1 | south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | 53,946,537 | 53,946,537 |
b036593c2fe5f734fa26fcab8c17a3e6c8c065d8 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x6a0bf25cacee15e507476f9bd79acd63a149a5553bd2acbd82972d30ef435366 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 20-25% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.25925925925925924
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 30-35% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vote? | 54,131,340 | 54,131,340 |
858a600cdc02896a3cc3c543e1fe382375312042 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x8041ffebaa0dcd3e1d192c5aa6185cef14ba9963fff52d0e7f296153cf144539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 30-35% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | 54,131,340 | 54,131,340 |
352c4c7e3d5fd56a9a3a4a6d3634dd851544787f | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x28b54161bd6b0c942defc60cd792fc4c767d17408b5eeb9077e836fcfb6686a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the 2024 Republican Iowa Caucus? | Event: who-will-win-the-2024-republican-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 25-30% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Wormhole token FDV between 4-5 billion a week after airdrop? | 55,675,234 | 55,675,234 |
d2ad1a22e169e8022f49f9cd0a3c66d127d7c60f | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xbb1b8e5c5c99cc1ab5cfd7e8deff3b72d861ba1f6669e4f3b858dbb49b337e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 25-30% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-iowa-caucus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: BTC ETFs fir... | no | 1 | wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Wormhole token FDV between 5-6 billion a week after airdrop? | 55,675,234 | 55,675,234 |
00d200c180c5c8fe0d52d1defd8cd79208eabaa0 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x696d391570192709b50074d1311c81b0a62832b88635a33c45dc44a59c345b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $10-30 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: BTC... | no | 0.632555 | gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.01 and 0.1 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | 56,131,344 | 56,131,344 |
79d9aded22126df7f054bd7ea6d29fdbf64143a4 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xb00fede3f97c6994290b76de9bf434a4b981d6eb0e1ca6b651195972d2303b3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $10-30 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $30-60 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.0001 and 0.001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | 56,131,344 | 56,131,344 |
ee9e0524a3428661179aab709b41e413b6078565 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xba88ad56b893b0023fb614877575ade894be0080dc410abc67199b6f99524947 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $30-60 billion? | Event: bitcoin-etfs-first-week-combined-aum | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | iran-response-to-israel-by-friday-apr-12 | Iran response to Israel by Friday? | 56,131,344 | 56,131,344 |
a6cc29daab045df4a167b24ea6833189457bf485 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xbf597b901e6eb0f90a17542482c3f966fc8733d8761c83dcfcbdcf71fcfa75d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Will the median gas price per blob be <0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | 56,131,344 | 56,131,344 |
e209ed7acc1dfff7f9f319a8063b1c363be07a5f | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xfd0dbeec183a42c6d98724ae80a988d55da680cb3f92d350b8c472fe039cb88c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make... | no | 0.761123 | gas-price-per-blob-1-month-after-eip-4844 | Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.001 and 0.01 ETH one month after EIP-4844? | 56,131,344 | 56,131,344 |
60fa5f5e61f0e4dec15465ba1f6de56769ad82f8 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x503f559d3411b26fd64a3b8a35f8dbf083e2adbc3d63a27470524c779393dc4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.19710109664749126
2. Question: Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | 56,465,453 | 56,465,453 |
0ed23a25219070600914bc152170933ee409d96e | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x5e3c5c8da8b1b3e8b316fc7387fb1ac3e19a01ebed00272be9e4577e19ab750a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast not say how much his Twitter post with over 124m views made? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-w... | no | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | 56,465,453 | 56,465,453 |
528f01c0c81d14eae124394326b091f78d0c2c35 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x7665e3f761b19aa19daa59c8e5123efc72d98691fd55b9560b5be63f5d530734 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast not say how much his Twitter post with over 124m views made? | Event: how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4267516377492002
2. Question: Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-pr... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | 56,465,453 | 56,465,453 |
23d951159453ce5d4156b0fe9ba0380b21b7e0d9 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x87638b04ab5030809c65e22a546571019ea86429e5dc3755a01f2f7ea701fafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | 56,465,453 | 56,465,453 |
59b771f770416a58011dc108a6e7b8c8d4d5f774 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xc3a05fb5d7192d9879e1e6cc06e4a655601b6c4d697d6863b8a1a634c0f8d5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | 56,465,453 | 56,465,453 |
f9872d3ce449bc0c4919e63c63532f2625f428ce | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xba9680acdb32577f18c1c211ef13abad98a3b0765d671da4e04459c31a3de1d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | FriendTech market cap less than $1b one day after launch? | 56,593,350 | 56,593,350 |
e65d99806ea1bb2f5532aad15a08157c0178a58a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xbdfedd24ff8dacff193e42ffc7824bd90ab6e9a5e17011f21d6aa093619448b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 7.5-10% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.99005 | friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | FriendTech market cap $1-2b one day after launch? | 56,612,308 | 56,612,308 |
036bb1b4eac5825c34d87392a1c5a93751208113 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe4191916a9c60e7ea397669d40286cba6d7d83b424a88a345c93943f6e89405c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 7.5-10% | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US r... | no | 1 | friendtech-fdv-one-day-after-launch | FriendTech market cap $5-10b one day after launch? | 56,612,308 | 56,612,308 |
7787d26999a85eab30e300518f6b5d1bcdf8057a | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xa8f7783a2e3cf762fa33580584f345dcc04b7a3c376fe085665f55f5748c504b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31? | Event: us-response-to-irans-drone-attack-by-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will JUP be below $0... | yes | 0.019998 | ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Ethereum spot ETF approved by June 30? | 57,196,769 | 57,196,769 |
fa978e1ef9638f00acb7ab8901db799a59beb1a5 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x4fdc8c72f3013001dccc152e318cb3fcb16da16c741816c3078a42947702ece5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31? | Event: us-response-to-irans-drone-attack-by-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump wins every sta... | no | 0 | ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31 | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | 57,303,057 | 57,309,552 |
0deb67256bdf3669df9bc55ff258cde528c20ed5 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x4dcd86e503db974a04da4ef751671e357ef9b96719c0e64861431048dd100d96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-24hrs-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump wins every state in Rep. Nomination? | Event: trump-wins-every-state-in-rep-nomination | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2508240934971531
3. Question: Finnish Pr... | no | 0 | will-nikki-haley-endorse-trump-before-june | Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June? | 57,393,399 | 57,393,399 |
f70c3754568c190515ffc3fe43aa3a12c63f1261 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xd2c10628e74b85fae2c89b7a63642960d53bd7533652e076b339e7d6b32f319f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump wins every state in Rep. Nomination? | Event: trump-wins-every-state-in-rep-nomination | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2508240934971531
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5... | no | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Xóchitl Gálvez win? | 57,727,568 | 57,727,568 |
8b91c18c6c6ae3de3ebd63c0f91c334ec0af2ec3 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x487706f84e5d36d12fd7929f0796e69d659bf1373e9c878eccf2cf46741a353e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5561529035063446
2. Question: Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? | Event: will-spacexs-starship-launch-before-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 1 | belgian-federal-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Will PTB win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections? | 58,021,888 | 58,021,888 |
81b2dfb7aeeb37666bca3e6e3522fe344e86ac68 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe4a2e94c62b7ade88de97a5a8d50487fed6d77ee59a32296d976f79c430a85ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March? | Event: will-spacexs-starship-launch-before-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Wormhole token FDV less than 4 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | euro-2024-scotland-vs-switzerland | Will Switzerland win? | 58,369,821 | 58,369,821 |
1fe0b3d3e9ac07a6e83489c3e3017b81f00c3073 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xe71ffd6668b6f26eb8f850bb668a09b64b50dc400f704035594163796d385249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wormhole token FDV less than 4 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary |... | no | 0 | airdrops-by-june-30 | LayerZero airdrop by June 30? | 58,394,201 | 58,698,922 |
4326cb27186f9909137d32ebeb9d715c2b4e09eb | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x52e38da96361f0324678a5f23daa8b94f075b7ef0ab2affc70f1b729621180b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-car... | no | 1 | euro-2024-spain-vs-italy | Will Spain win? | 58,698,922 | 58,698,922 |
f69165123f7229b338f433c65a5641975649200b | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x6cb42eebafe77f81d9164773db07ebd168add91ee909892cd14c59d4d442f3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-c... | no | 1 | airdrops-by-june-30 | EigenLayer airdrop by June 30? | 58,835,735 | 58,835,735 |
45e765715c8ac90feaaf013205ae1ccd82b9fbfa | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x1b1b9e20c4f1a24a4b5f9d927e23964a8575cb5078a4b92744d9f0496d6d79d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by less than 10% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-ca... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? | 59,086,043 | 59,086,043 |
038e46809d10df9ae634744f9aa613436aaa0744 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x2c6e44d7e9a6a873955eb1cc9805cdc765cd7ca4230c3f1a12e7ec2aa6ef0fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by less than 10% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light? | Event: ben-armstrong-vs-more-light-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | 59,086,043 | 59,086,043 |
e772db8241b8fa4ef297f84f42b5032ac200fcfa | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0xbdf50fc90cd5155830c0b25fc8285d83bb74be3e3cc906fe5b0ddac2c91eeecf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light? | Event: ben-armstrong-vs-more-light-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? | 59,086,043 | 59,086,043 |
4f5428becfa981d007a90969d639909454e003c2 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x20aa870ee159a69c7acec8dad3a5b483e25849709010282f247b6651fd39b4d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? | Event: south-carolina-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Cho... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-french-election | Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly? | 59,251,926 | 59,251,926 |
faa03019a8bbebba84f05dac19b7971a65db12dc | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x40658826854d23560740cff22171c9c4fc873cf7aa78dc68917c503ad71ee028 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-c... | no | 0 | will-hakeem-jeffries-call-on-biden-to-drop-out-by-july-21 | Will Hakeem Jeffries call on Biden to drop out by July 21? | 59,371,852 | 59,371,852 |
73fa32b2621097ebe65fd00bd3d915483e8cdece | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x6a031c4888fcfb886861d3616cce760ea284dbf46e355b197400c2b12a4c37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote? | Event: trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wormhole token FDV between 4-5 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop... | yes | 0.720482 | republican-vp-nominee | Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,400,477 | 59,414,273 |
7cac05e6e436320a8fb51bef6d3429f7c4820191 | 0x200544427dfc822652cb55ca5ca9f99476a9e414 | 0x8617f0ec3b1bb510d731572ef786a6349727878a446f033e5e16d080f5ffdeb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wormhole token FDV between 4-5 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wormhole token FDV between 5-6 billion a week after airdrop? | Event: wormhole-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,414,273 | 59,414,273 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.