sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9e442e24baed3ff77bbc67d52da39c3aa0e3eb46 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf8f125be86218ee3a8e982e4cf41053dc671e74e0d542d220aed66d0ff5f84ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,267,755 | 60,267,755 |
5c01b7492b229c40aa00c337a19e83371418db8f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd046f3a64bd87f3b743e638ad00680af2a34dc193f164677c8c92de39e6fe9d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,277,119 | 60,277,119 |
4050f5af04d47cd7185192a5b5fc161cd9e6f150 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x72857b3b967e7cdf2e85258e88c7077ba22e6a3b0c1c30b6bd6fc7ee7b7b51a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,351,264 | 60,351,264 |
9546c0b681c30f0681d74b58f38ea23e91e8f4d5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xebb485a57ca300852620eec4485b1411440d71998d346ce65e333b944683b28c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 0 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,364,391 | 60,364,391 |
e7a8d6d68c3dd4fca1fedb8e88acef09de839fd3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xeb203ebcdfab834b801aa2b5b8fba2c83c5b87522c1653581cd09b3ce24e35ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,397,680 | 60,397,680 |
841895a92b14b46a95a2c75ad4c6697dde12259e | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5894405d04d5b923f36c63dfc88042620930d62417a580f47ffc7cc32c5520ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,433,316 | 60,433,316 |
f9542f0ed5df4b2029cea223afd9f98adfcb9091 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x229698a09fd7f46161a64fbf7983cdff7f1bdbf67f8e9c954a7ac5992be32a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,480,437 | 60,480,437 |
261db0cf6d44f7ebe5f63d2122374d6a4863d111 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb8d52bbb7646d2b6d72e35789e4788b5d7a6155e79e228e35ac72b4c615f4698 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,480,451 | 60,480,451 |
52fd521764c4bac9c8ca98d37f14e8d3abe8404f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3b61875fc84180b2cb4e72299443d3529afbcdba245c3211b6c5f8402991f7b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 0.428571 | 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Will France win the 3rd most gold medals? | 60,480,459 | 60,480,459 |
e5eb1acd4bf985a9e007fca4c9da6d17ed048887 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4218169ce79c643ef4b131b828bc8b9f882939b7966b3f36fa1865dcabff876f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 0 | 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals? | 60,480,475 | 60,480,475 |
1abdb189e5e68b67d0083089cf7dcea62dace141 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,480,475 | 60,480,475 |
d2f793f7c8242723e6eb4789292cea7d3dd5ab21 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3d1a77fb6cdb20fbde4b798c920ecc3b489df43fa621cdf11ce3108b1ba89504 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | it-ends-with-us-opening-weekend | Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend? | 60,526,831 | 60,526,831 |
aee16d89745dbdbfdc381e10d5265fd755bce8cd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6bca9b2e12c6ae6bba8307906106daf10a0c4b97ca4d55db96daa9fc1c4358d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 11-15 times this week? | 60,679,312 | 60,679,312 |
6a03a2396bcaee5b50712ae83882b72e9c70507f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7bb25791c2f46c7784efbe73be8998f2e7100cb0cb7165ffa6371fe4b250575d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 31-35 times this week? | 60,679,312 | 60,679,312 |
f57e25d80922935a5f76b626f7fcccc741dabc8d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xe8091a8710bf95e522392510fc496f7c6df2c13d9d117d4e41baf623a3deff28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | 60,679,312 | 60,679,312 |
94a4f07e5618c5a34c0a5a299d308b41ac225911 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x9f922b176333d76d49b337ff600981167659f7e146d3fad9d90770279b347aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | 60,759,757 | 60,759,757 |
00c2f14f834150d34bccd2d09cc21572015081b3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xecb07d32e2f469ee50745638d6c7a68e06f9b10f7bc3f399f59ed0823ebd2175 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend? | 60,805,091 | 60,805,091 |
896dcef40b4a0fb69ea64d3c7cde08c5b3309fc1 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5322c6bf84aa80e6b0e71edfca0ac1a027a05cbfa529b45ce54d3252e928c306 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned between 60 and 79 times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,982,693 | 60,982,693 |
b7ab681ecb43c51b809ad25f3a43cd57b900e94f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2bf1b0179d6a9a5860bbfe2f6e940a4bfe5098b40dd6841d0868c911249f591f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-crystal-palace | Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea? | 61,313,419 | 61,313,419 |
d7900b85110b0a1999584fa7f0aef682331e2a9c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4753a127685ef0a6f200d87ae74ae2afd69c1395c27333399a252ac333ee26ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-hungary | Will Germany win? | 61,553,583 | 61,553,583 |
0a137ee4a88e78fa51e321858e5190b2fe97e763 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xda6b02132a4739dca455b489aee53df859da5c01809b216be2a026110223f71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | 61,641,669 | 61,641,669 |
88c6a389732db7623de7a456076a14e433823cdd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2950a508f2b2e4d69130e7495a9a7f57c7f3887de345fd9dbc1fd6b91618340d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | 61,792,178 | 61,792,178 |
f65a6c39465e50e5a72d5100967a4030773303f6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa1623f3c8640e4a6a1dd21ab5a332f9b3c9534585becbd3237954e8b4f086908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | dota-2-the-international-champions | Will another team win The International 2024? | 61,873,217 | 61,873,217 |
b1f382aed23ef6a4fd4b84bb9afcea8556e9006d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc7fdf2f2f2975b5aad279aab1d6b19e684f9dbeeb7b338e861902a41e8d0d246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | yes | 1 | who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | 62,177,808 | 62,177,808 |
2a426a98cf8889101b58746079e3a33a716fec8d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb706e15f1b9b0eb0535956ba88c2e0be756ffa6cdf45d14f6a36a8f783548b1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend... | no | 1 | when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | 62,518,134 | 62,518,134 |
4fb2f82541a95c492401540a56d6e42ca7b652a0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4ada28f447779e28ad1b41006561d88cf02d0b45851f12b38d84fee1f6ba6a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend? | Event: deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Siobhan Haughey (HKG) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday | Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | 62,652,459 | 62,652,459 |
a2c9f8a79ea6e229931867f2b7913f5ed7c9e39a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x72d1f8f2af0af9731f4eb224c3b217627d47f3c6722560bf6ee4e35d3648859d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Siobhan Haughey (HKG) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala announ... | yes | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-fulham | Will Manchester City beat Fulham? | 62,686,966 | 62,686,966 |
ee9a24e348d1682af83490f1da60e7f36e8dad82 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x78c311c856fc22431bae03b2b3d3fa74f7d0c9f46552619367c92208a7797b52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democrati... | yes | 1 | joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? | 62,772,028 | 62,772,028 |
de091642a751f36a1899f747a6752a18c71ccb00 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcd27eb02f8ea96359db2be8a5c5184421f90be598bf28fdab3893240e97832ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Saturday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris b... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Monday? | 62,793,158 | 62,793,158 |
ab32fa110233319a7049e8ebb1a2566002d016ad | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x53b4da15104f1869b7648857f484eaa19049c2dbb9203bbe911aa29883da2fc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | 62,819,403 | 62,819,403 |
acad4477539a5c25f68823c0c5f9cf5e910e9529 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x610f3b5b17dfbfa4836d868ca087b0a281d89975a143f8b4a24fedacca16d4da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | Event: democratic-presidential-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicola... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11? | 62,926,380 | 62,926,380 |
151c78977d3c0ed7f30524acb9ac3f741b072a7d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8b4d8c24d239109b04bcb3ef2ea22317a9dd32c7861af4be13d85cb8cbd809cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Serbi... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times October 4-11? | 62,926,380 | 62,926,380 |
52eed4ff685006ba5ae8f2dc43cc58f3fd23e5da | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x275065a0198a136c43d43641f415308ff4d3d08b5604faba130c3ea8d93cae4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Spain win Gol... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Friday? | 62,948,326 | 62,948,326 |
c370a7ac8833f4c42db82e90fdc31d07ccc474c7 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x50f2f68bdbb073f682c429cddaaee7f1685d6df1f04d66becf270c56fb5ee42c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women'... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday? | 62,983,888 | 62,983,888 |
9b2116944c615fd608e140b0d70f85c2c5766802 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xabb25ec6c0838ee91283831bb9b7b1961ad19947e0a376761e72374b3336a302 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA wins the most gold... | no | 1 | terrifier-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend? | 63,111,839 | 63,111,839 |
ee00dc03ecd6866b0dfc2f606dfab9eace61ed91 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0887a752d4b74ef06b0000fa3d695cb0c90f7af2da48141c7e45acdeb11bc9e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | smile-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? | 63,336,642 | 63,336,642 |
6ded52fdcc38a9a2ffaa8c4947a1278a7259140b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xddafc316d7f98d5850033d3ed02285d759799dad94ae2c1b233c53607a374730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25? | 63,447,656 | 63,447,656 |
086f4450ebb4074c8cfc2086d785c9bef9f85301 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x81d3b78939693cb9b4613408ad4bfd751dfcdf96bac396a5e9d0f48f1f7d338b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.42857142857... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,738,204 | 63,738,204 |
2337a35c8927e6eaa45a795ed14f5e07a00a22ee | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5831edbb85d2d22c899fe493ffed5893b242f361dc2828b8f1c3427d288e62ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.42857142857142855
2. Question: Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: U... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | 63,781,373 | 63,781,373 |
5a5e3266b72c32f7c925a9f1f1050098128d99b8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2bf32106a2795cc68b2709cc961a4f2952ebb722f79354698fe29bc888736633 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals? | Event: 3rd-most-gold-medals-at-paris-olympics-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-02? | 63,811,944 | 63,811,944 |
ccaa32d8abfb1d617e1a0531cefa1bd8b8e7d637 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x34d755f3ff9a1ea92df1103df1642984ac1e6946877d50e4a7c6883813e62ce2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend? | Event: it-ends-with-us-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 63,850,736 | 63,850,736 |
5b1111ebda80680ecd15424ca8dbacaba83e382a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x210273ebe50c73651ae0a077324c0de0e27a606b4ef24325dab600b344172939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend? | Event: it-ends-with-us-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 11-15 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | moldova-presidential-election-winner | Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | 63,882,992 | 63,882,992 |
69a632457fd0a1cc8bedede4ba6942a5ae9e2995 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x19c01f1f32c93f71fd8a12deac61cab575e239eaf595a38dbafa5d76d5b44f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 11-15 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 31-35 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 ti... | no | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | 63,909,517 | 63,909,517 |
43d969caaf67a39bb02b37f34b19ce332e8ab1ef | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x78234aafc88ab34b177109a5448cd90d7d1fd4efea1983d19fd67eee78ff0239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 31-35 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 10 or mo... | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | 63,909,517 | 63,909,517 |
e08d10653b8e8f2a5a28379badd220338fcfe222 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5997cd6096c218411758371421538280a309fb3d465acfda751e3f37944e8ed5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 21-25 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Alien:... | no | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time? | 63,917,793 | 63,917,793 |
75180cf641063959e01db375ad01adab9b258746 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2758b209d0ce348873b100c1205c2e3c2449222f211e4e9857e29e3071a65fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend? | Event: alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,954,380 | 63,954,380 |
9866ec4f883a0358aa2482b4c69ee07d14958a84 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf7fb94eb08c13612869e9854a9e57e589c21abea7f7cfc53ab01292844e10c71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend? | Event: alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 60 and 79 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,954,380 | 63,954,380 |
f2f82bfc74d413edb04fa0f3ffec337f8c0d5ee4 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5f71c0396254199eca645d987c489df1690e6a42eefc9c5b377b7bf68f7ee926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 60 and 79 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-crystal-palace | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: uefa-na... | no | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,958,087 | 63,958,087 |
88ecf335b0e05af9dde57af3f85fb27401ec8ecd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8e1b3055f4b1439636252c5b8a32387234b48403d95abe1ad23fe59c6181b067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-crystal-palace | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening week... | no | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | 63,958,087 | 63,958,087 |
b52e43645f33931660c3683c1222d246d4557de5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tr... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 63,963,096 | 63,963,096 |
5b8590d43215b7cdf7febd4fdb3d008abe28a545 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 0.664122 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,963,096 | 63,963,096 |
89566e064ec44aeef2169d9ff6471c99e7ea11f9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 13? | Event: trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another team win The International 2024? | Event: dota-2-the-international-champions | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SPD win the most votes i... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,967,678 | 63,967,678 |
ccb6227c54bad3a6a8f1e50afcb76b3a842b2b12 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6964df311eba3add433112c9ab13ef529c8e2e07e7c115b9cc548de035f5b25f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another team win The International 2024? | Event: dota-2-the-international-champions | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | Event: who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | 63,975,476 | 63,975,476 |
f096b7ee748b03046747d3129ed98bc7cdc8f432 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x372f717882a5bf292d2f9de80ab3c43c7dc4817e88d7134ae36484238486c622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election? | Event: who-wins-most-votes-in-brandenburg-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Israel military respons... | yes | 1 | maine-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election? | 63,993,788 | 63,993,788 |
03df5d768130d7bef1e574c8576158561935cd1e | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4dd811bddd1cbb87d6b0f8c8f952aede1edc01500e149b7e76151ff61a750a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024? | Event: when-will-gpt-5-be-announced | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Fulham?... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 600 or more times November 1-8? | 64,082,941 | 64,082,941 |
5be7f035cdf3cf8ad89d6b5f50adb1fe98ff2f76 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4404e4357bb1f3a566672f0d9c2185e9b64f8b2870235a35bdfebf4c1bbd5b05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Fulham? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-fulham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Will Villa win on 2024-11-09? | 64,096,130 | 64,096,130 |
78554171b1c181e55c7896f195438c1b987de962 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x71636521d7c97d55c349b637390fb4497d4f8ce52529ddb6d9a4ff537069d063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Fulham? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-fulham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isra... | yes | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win 7 swing states? | 64,111,750 | 64,111,750 |
4b78ccc1b014e72c29ad3ecf6d8d676ab165e114 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xff5c1e73e31ad495136fcafce90710a3a1771a96f07116db60aeaae095c0ec29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? | Event: joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Monday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | 64,111,750 | 64,111,750 |
960b8d47e77a2e942e13ebc49549cc4346eb1f67 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Monday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet ... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,193,433 | 64,193,433 |
1fcbb586619d79cfcc23783e312c84bf1383a431 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa9f8d367485afa1c8bbb21c094a69b93f18a1f90dc94fff90736f33ef4494844 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15? | 64,339,200 | 64,339,200 |
fd7755287d50fa363f683937dd516477fd3441f0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times October 4-11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday? | Ev... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,348,642 | 64,348,642 |
17e6046e5cc95d3db8c5a45ce37771145ae9a390 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4ddacb19fe4c229bf7c6c09208ef93315a7f2d55cde0ad82cc1d3977331d42ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times October 4-11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Will Netherlands beat Hungary? | 64,376,532 | 64,376,532 |
484c0bbedb8ad90ed25d33410853e56fd5324467 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb2f3b7aa33edb1d15597ad3ade83bf3e39538f19b9e18beb4b4f578bc8a2072a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Germany? | 64,376,532 | 64,376,532 |
565b4fdfbb85698519c2ff7cfc1038b52e50a1a5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb72266ce7eb0e9ae19fcd771c293981fcbbb4dbd7fb1b95068a28907d2a1b9c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend? | Event: terrifier-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Smile... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Will the match between Netherlands and Hungary end in a draw? | 64,376,532 | 64,376,532 |
a5c7175cc821902b99ca4e6dcc48408d628caf7a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xebe8fb7c94e92b0b004ff2d03683f9b4e15a885d6297648d14d39fa399556335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend? | Event: terrifier-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? | Event: smile-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina? | 64,376,532 | 64,376,532 |
e04e821d38fe9bd49357bdf8f8df1978857e7786 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcd28376a84012d74e8726591785810a48db7c731ac515e0e28d458bb21fd2b37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? | Event: smile-2-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or more ti... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-spain-vs-switzerland | Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw? | 64,459,960 | 64,459,960 |
826e861f3b4d2b2dd34fe4689cfa804cb0b88f00 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1b43e21dc696e34154ba0d0a9b351264a86d773bf381ffd0eb5d2124ee783b33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 90 or more t... | republican | 1 | house-control-after-2024-election | House control after 2024 election? | 64,585,919 | 64,585,919 |
1928beee1023353a7f1f9629c5f7c25089d5cc02 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc1a4830eef6f60d9e0f05ecb5aa81b11d7d361e1a869c0138219840af849a986 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth w... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 64,585,919 | 64,585,919 |
761076b0a8707e7a1b565068a58f5f130869c557 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xeedf49438f58b8dbaad3c89ec97a6cd7be30c38b6757c52f812e3909512b949e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | ... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | 64,930,830 | 64,930,830 |
0374036237545ab59d05ee0e836328b24738aff7 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xe858d12a329a9a1f0a5f568bf00d7b537af8a943bdd57ff718fc312997e03912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Ev... | no | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in November? | 64,952,834 | 64,952,834 |
e2fc5db05e21d1c90d87a35547d72dda8e6425b8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcc4967c95c90fa7138b5197a27a2748c3432191783de2f8b4021212c80548dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Event: moldova-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debate... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | 64,970,739 | 64,970,739 |
1dfc667b1b1d2fe68ea996ef66ccef05d2f87871 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd3570077ea2b151a993c323751d719785886460662358c4caf4e95434e581331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Event: moldova-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 1 ... | no | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? | 64,970,739 | 64,970,739 |
cd25c45b0d2ba26e90249cbd50e2f3b23c8a1e59 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xdb3d97ada2399f53dc90e126509e781e4722c0e2ae10cc9f83eeb6eb7cc5ce41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump sentenc... | yes | 1 | moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | 65,008,471 | 65,008,471 |
499e7d977f1fcc52d00fb6874a6601f6c1a25b40 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x10374c401f0dcc7c28a352edd39f2044d1366a31c7b7941b730ff6f20f4b39c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | Event: number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time? | Event: trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Dem... | yes | 1 | moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? | 65,011,299 | 65,011,299 |
6c804700e1b948dcbf13b55520ffdc9ae03caa7f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x94f5f51c163ab8260561ff80992efdfe91168d0421cddb8963157e5ebe1d87be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time? | Event: trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend? | 65,011,504 | 65,011,504 |
6c7cfa7e43d6611f6f699abda4c6d8c0b39e6de2 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x50e40f9262128e21edba3c6a19b2ef953ad207fe1770f889432a6c176a509efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a R... | no | 1 | epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | 65,053,580 | 65,053,580 |
f463ef96c9976e964694e974ef4ca8fcc7d6e3a7 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7b4021db1a35b8d84c3f56054a170c791287823d8fc0afe7c4f260bc0293bf80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | 65,053,580 | 65,053,580 |
cdae62beafbd0c51ca35572ef8f821d3da48a3fe | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x60c27091000c2ee53d995e92bb1eb4b9cb61982fd1e70122368d227be0c07752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Event: new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a De... | no | 1 | epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | 65,054,665 | 65,054,665 |
d42666df416a89ae46e23e3800e171684f66e348 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2e9a4324f3e2269b6069daec1473eeb127859c72f9db70b3842d70fcb87c31dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,067,156 | 65,067,156 |
1e1d689b24ae74649b8a1cd1fecd7959e703be98 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x34c917298ad25114995e20e0d32a56ab4e383649acdbd716db9d0c7a716ada03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6641221374... | yes | 1 | namibia-presidential-election | Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? | 65,071,056 | 65,071,056 |
6d6b61e1d037fe299c4ec202c191e236d1464af4 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x068298010480648793fcded979e719692cd5b50c38883c1b91a02ab92d8f7219 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6641221374045801
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | 65,094,497 | 65,094,497 |
bf65ebba1e29d4fe9dc110ea8ce495fe935bcaaf | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x165ddb86e43afe505f0668bfb8395373fcc5bec7f8dd37bd66dd2252b243889d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | Event: california-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-04? | 65,094,497 | 65,094,497 |
3a337f7388de98827525eaa24d9d2d2773961686 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7cadf5c10f76e0dfe858e7d3b4c50fc48096d0d6c0b605fac89d2cc0adfa3126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | Event: california-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election? | Event: maine-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will E... | no | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04? | 65,094,497 | 65,094,497 |
0d2b4b491e3c596afab059acbd63aa365e79830a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election? | Event: maine-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 600 or more times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,094,497 | 65,094,497 |
c77d446ddfbf170a744d7583cc631639b7bd0435 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5bc697fa00f49ca43fcbd83728106d630911f9b59b784c41f0e26bdccbfc0ebe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 600 or more times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-sta... | no | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | 65,097,190 | 65,097,190 |
78e627d3981ac5181b46f7eda1759a4cdaf851bf | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x11450fa39ebe8dd9a7b1455995891777d33f5fa021f09c789119780f13bab32b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | Event: electo... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,170,086 | 65,170,086 |
0fc7cb7b76917e6f53a5144c6e1cac581f664ae1 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x16956a610c9d8125b3ef2de86e26740281e9fbcf442892c363ffd4aa0938a243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,170,086 | 65,170,086 |
846dac064bd1e319c149d0441dce5b66aeaa5fca | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc09e45ebc80a586b597c81720f9a7a59f0eb6038c3830ca8f3a1966e399b9f53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,170,086 | 65,170,086 |
d654aa67a500b65dbab1b3c8e3cf08abffb37552 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xed1ab12fec1fdba110da3e7ebf4eefe0cec0e6bfdf5a75ccff1a275ffca9a35d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Event: arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win his box... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,170,086 | 65,170,086 |
9f4c33666959eefa29a4ca26faa84de75a0e50ce | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xdf1d861344442f2b243d4d0c9dfe00477d5d09f20de8e2c9f443e8627434106f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 8-15? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherland... | no | 1 | when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | Brian Thompson Perp arrested on Saturday? | 65,225,263 | 65,225,263 |
c06304c25b2b961630da409aaef56b092c97b772 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x160b8e273beea9d7517b3720048ac8b8ecb0c8dc36bdb23fa5274ff7eaf6ddf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands beat Hungary? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bosnia and He... | yes | 1 | when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | No Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Sunday? | 65,278,684 | 65,278,684 |
ef31e24718b613ff547a2564558f6f24bca2a188 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd7f83a5c115a8ea19f4c99d7675ed0112f126c272075887728aaf55a07a396cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands beat Hungary? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | ghana-presidential-election | Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana? | 65,296,483 | 65,296,483 |
03a2db09737875cf4632e822e552af051a3b1d71 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x68d2f52a5446b7cb93dde3cea4da7abf9083ab74b0112953946ca23e5481a4df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Germany? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Netherlands and Hungary end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13? | 65,447,183 | 65,447,183 |
55550478e737e8c589ff2e88d71aba7751096d72 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xbd39c23f02c45af8e89634299dc7917088bd3d9ce51dacd655cb013d59afe4ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Netherlands and Hungary end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-hungary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13? | 65,447,183 | 65,447,183 |
3eb312c83cbce8cc8535ec74f7dd4894ddb1ceca | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd98db52e63443f7de6a09f565afc2151dd1d987ac9b18bd04cc7b83e313760ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina? | Event: uefa-nations-league-germany-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nov-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-spain-vs-switzerland | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 0.999945 | donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13? | 65,447,183 | 65,447,183 |
9079fea8e14ef4d23be393e601d63535a4a4817b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x59c8249c103cd7c5533ddc06e0423f048d39037dbf6890e29874f6974b8b9714 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-spain-vs-switzerland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: House control after 2024 election? | Event: house-control-after-2024-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a R... | no | 1 | epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | 65,490,977 | 65,490,977 |
62d3ec414e67b5b267221e04b9044536ab53b0b3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x59d6aa392a4d929b332d82afb6aadeb6a62db1b161056683b118a41dda254126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: House control after 2024 election? | Event: house-control-after-2024-election | Choice: republican | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal wi... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 65,573,451 | 65,573,451 |
04889378dd8a47ee71ddc83591e0f2a1443aef23 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0a006c3843ea6b6959b46a46b7a0cdc52ed8773ba19d769b71d0d8b2650476b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in Nov... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Will Trump get 70-72m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | 65,615,934 | 65,615,934 |
39110d53239a9bbe372fb62751b0403aec796225 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x536edf11e2966f157280f0def83fec67c215be63fe508a7128793dfc415d141b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in November? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-... | yes | 1 | rfk-popular-vote-share | Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? | 65,615,934 | 65,615,934 |
202adbeb0b0b46596997b3a0908ddc76c7d95cc3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x58798f2c10ec863168c5fe947323744562c404280427c7a47d196a875cf0e0c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in November? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on... | yes | 1 | us-election-tipping-point-state | Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | 65,615,934 | 65,615,934 |
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