sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d6f81bf6854733202d98b4a06c8d25a55f370202 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0c25c534c9c92f9024b754f604bb579e59ff07c7eb5896bebdb6e6c709202269 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next Germa... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | 72,054,000 | 72,054,000 |
059887de94c4956ab5c10806bddfd13d3fcb38b5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x18dd461da7645f3f54c6fae5d512960666193783dc73236a67806b71a3147b9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Grand Theft... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | 72,054,000 | 72,054,000 |
770120ad318fe4351a5284e3b0e43aaca3d84899 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4795f96c7e261d7aaad484026ce85262e5962b954ec3d35f2ca432788416d6ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Event: which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? | 72,054,000 | 72,054,000 |
25d0e32210b95311acca43dd4718fb59c2cad6db | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb9dd8bdad88602366ffeff50fdb3232cc87feb25dfa37b000061e9f58c3f628d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get more than 120m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | 72,054,000 | 72,054,000 |
48f89c6779043ae53e899a3361b0be44f1036c02 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa396101062e699bfa8622fda0185729b1dfca18cb12ef5362f5843cff58d5d77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get more than 120m views in first 24 hours? | Event: of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on May 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | 72,092,498 | 72,092,498 |
aecafdef545dba65d14085e426c5cfd6d2da8f73 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd36ea77037f64267b031ba04d679e922512b7da625e49d70fee15c6408a2687c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on May 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $10... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | 72,092,498 | 72,092,498 |
507190fb3c38688310146af9fc679ca5529e16df | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x57cb627c154489cb13e71b982a4dba0231a1d88585951f8fbb93560844e347c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on ... | yes | 1 | nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | 72,126,492 | 72,126,492 |
67677095d0a97747f5c25bcb730ae13892f4450c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x00996e241063a5b261fbbff1a5f65c50907b01a363f719e4dd60a4f4d007cd3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-29-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 29 at 5 PM ET? | 72,135,241 | 72,135,241 |
1e5d021a530ac77bf9ffbd7bd4da521f22759368 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3a5a0289c93118833ee682065e6935ded62984992f97fd5a59b4d2271214282d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Et... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 72,164,583 | 72,164,583 |
0bc891dbfdc0a105f17299b534cd53f4411beb8d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf999ea22dd5db9832f79cd9e51c1bbd1167932c1ec6471ccb04bfed10b8b6020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | yes | 1 | nhl-western-conference-champion | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | 72,164,583 | 72,164,583 |
e936d0c2872f1269555105b45cb8f9fa608b0844 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x902e518669375979ea4480397ba36feeb4f1110417ffc149c6c30f75385840d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102000 and $104000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | 72,175,692 | 72,175,692 |
a8e00ea4a4e0d5480389effbe267178c45fc110a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102000 and $104000 on May 16? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,203,720 | 72,203,720 |
2cd44c3b825d17e431c800bdf465b67201e97041 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa6658afc37e5479fdf54f6a43c2fce50c9acc72aae9762e23f9d871912ac8a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? | Event: ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-may | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 72,211,205 | 72,211,205 |
858abc34d6b1db66e5452dd8dfdf0cf0030b3fb7 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0da99bc139341574ebdb4a54842929a78ae39d880d0258dd290b5ecffe31b379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | 72,239,318 | 72,239,318 |
367484e22ee8e0a5cd731ca8a685ff441375b1f6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x88e29c260ca2f22bb3f089c08dddcbdfb2559749bfab87ddaf00942d337dfb50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will Inter Milan win 1-0? | 72,239,318 | 72,239,318 |
50874511a92051dbda4eb223096e798ac784a790 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x95efd78c56e18723f238b372e449c898532836202de448a2b79db81e46da835f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel be the Jury Winner... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Will three total goals be scored in regulation time? | 72,239,318 | 72,239,318 |
cebc98131c451411e22b41c8fc515c5922257d6a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1b67213547fdd297eb1de78c0174fc3e8b47977021ca7c1ba6bb239b143c1fe3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovision 202... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will PSG win 3-1? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
caecc40f49c8d636d9f3099dc1aea2ce176817a9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1f3e898aaf1d131f072ea659b3ff8a03b1850999bac571b4f789207841770059 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine be the Televote Wi... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-end-result | Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
9bccefa20c7c7becad42270c3abb5b53e989f385 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x362180ec4f72afbe41663ce9594fa97bae31fee1da0256cb8bd60f22317969d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Albania win Eurov... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
8dc15d76b508c46db73de77e9ed21130d8505a1a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa662bb5c0a8816eb06e241efba188ac2d8c2ee5aa5e441153956163709d08404 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | Event: eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria win Eurovisio... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will Inter Milan win 5-4? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
6ad2aef3521fbd426213e5d5118b17d5ac3188c8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb6372e6f7f0bb1d80580ded6c9226291b9af925983dd0bbb1199b5a2dc38e0b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | Event: eurovision-20... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will PSG win 3-2? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
5dd28c7e4ee029a0d6718cfbe0ad6eba9b3e1274 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc8fe919d1e87d21bf00a1b9b3befbe7c4ea0a0dda2f5f09b11a8d5f4e6e662f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | Event: eurovision-2025-top-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
aeafbfe777b40ba97cf26ac54e11adad0f53e6bb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcc25f1d94312c2a9cd749b00ed50a3846f52d5e08b4076973e64cb142d6aa159 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | Event: eurovision-2025-top-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win o... | no | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will PSG win 4-2? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
ce70e1548a72851fd703aff64e73461621c621eb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcd3468f71974dae9a7b3e47a2d559a034cbe6cb8461aa768a4cc90ac362de2cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Government of Canada b... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | 72,239,319 | 72,239,319 |
1f8522ef81ee1e526ac80d9980ed8e8ed23a6163 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x27ddacbfe7dee8504ef1118f268a5b380a5ae41dc8512e759bfefff2c50a82b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presid... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | 72,279,287 | 72,279,287 |
59d6597db33a26ac8af5df3b5b27c20d7e917c35 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3c721bf2f5848dbdc7cadc5f80f13ceb1f48dccbb6c1569142a2da13b3d659e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? | 72,279,287 | 72,279,287 |
6b128db85d07082e0d346295f84bef1d42feaa6b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | Event: uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,279,287 | 72,279,287 |
982bcf9da27201e1855d047d8c99f31b04f2f8be | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x36b334c1af82f6dad3ad93527c7ce11e1fc5fcb748c6fd6bfc0701cbdcf4f590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | Event: uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,299,124 | 72,299,124 |
e3b71f2a934ba7db8cf47d9acd6aa5690de1f404 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6702e719c57b50b2cfe4758c86ae5fea2c207f5e43083a5e7d49f044b50e7c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | 72,299,124 | 72,299,124 |
f604550f37ef06340749b4cfb089229e2ea835b4 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x96f998aa7e3d4291cd5209711b9edff23aef7f322969c1868621cded6f784ec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | 72,335,275 | 72,335,275 |
218aa4c14b9becb33a97c2b2fb8b2b4aeaecc12f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,335,275 | 72,335,275 |
6fd18a402a0828af8d6de05a95e543db92446ef2 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd60593db0ff8c021b58f78c947326ff9b771ad826958dd171667d141f6361a22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6? | 72,335,275 | 72,335,275 |
63ad5d2dcb8b15c0601f0a48aea820f4471bae2f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd6f28c879d79f518b1ac0aea7a3e9e012fb8c1431687791b6a1eb6569e9da853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,335,275 | 72,335,275 |
6f22670084931632424c10f2a13c12a02b8a076b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x28df1eeca8ccf25b4de7d154ffc8081c58347a3155943aeff912f23876426e56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 27 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6? | 72,383,166 | 72,383,166 |
599d708673a994334c5c2c10c5e3f6e6922915ac | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x25e0bfa819a128277106f7b284b4b1330c7b60f210269b75f458233cf1beac1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | 72,489,211 | 72,489,211 |
938e334c238f7087ce9d00b74bb21d2b49f395ac | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x58bf76643c4658e4b3149c934906c395d1a3e32a1c97e8816c1e07c1f67e7baa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on May 28 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-28-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | 72,489,211 | 72,489,211 |
96fdd4ed2dd072e33a62e4b908cc9dd75c94e818 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2fc8ded7d5589e68007fde3c7c0af214fe8186749242f53e6000c167cc67561f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? | Event: nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 29 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-29-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,539,470 | 72,539,470 |
8f16836eb53e06943046bb86e473d127ec9eaba7 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6e3cdc0c7bbfa38f3e24b7c424a185e8db0aa0f915b3f7443c6f455410337853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 29 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-29-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Edmonton Oilers ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | 72,539,470 | 72,539,470 |
ea8bea766a20683d39a269213ddaba8af745f39d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x686fb9aba46c4d33c53ad7c951a32b8b655c3be13a7da5ffa2abc2e433024cdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less ... | no | 1 | may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? | 72,618,495 | 72,618,495 |
625c7c4a6eb0c058e11cc9a7bea6fc4f83b80f5b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x37e5a87507d097c129bbcb92adf77627f977875ed77300e4a4fe403866c1a140 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | Event: nhl-western-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | 72,656,227 | 72,656,227 |
a47b6960c5a68678e79f8b231784bf1c23dcfe9d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1539b532aa10b4c465ab15a6b1f1d7a0a240f0ff98c913689aa54a56f1e88aab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on May 30 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | uefa-european-u21-germany-vs-slovenia | Will Germany U21 beat Slovenia U21? | 72,702,196 | 72,702,196 |
bce5aef9ce9a1bedf080affeac21947bebb2c987 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x02d35be0ac82ce139b63e47acfc629661a5cb78cc73f939932277e928e6c2637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 72,899,070 | 72,899,070 |
a5f45ecf6937f5c0b602ca9b2464d6f216706811 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4bc0eb8d2c640bb37d906780a506a83f69678a46a6e0ef8d2643b81715e009ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan win 1-0? | Ev... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | 72,899,070 | 72,902,265 |
35a4018fc76c3da12f1f9fea9c5dd814b94e621f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x054a59ba05a4b626da9abd54cd8198020e72bbe2373a2df8d7b7fd72449ad33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win 1-0? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will three total goals be scored in regulation time? | Event: champions-l... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate? | 72,902,265 | 72,902,265 |
1c80b29d296810dd153f26c0113f27522f8f020c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x43a28d966f90920d64a0478bc584b8f127d350f411e9999ccb1522c10424dc81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 1-0? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will three total goals be scored in regulation time? | Event: champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG win 3-1? | Event: cham... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | 72,902,265 | 72,902,265 |
5c749656ee4a8b5a2bea31b70e459ee099777579 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x834a4109dbd18f97695e4858b3a18d21fff19bc2dc7c055f18b96843ac1de17b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will three total goals be scored in regulation time? | Event: champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG win 3-1? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Champions League Final be deci... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | 72,934,461 | 72,934,461 |
b416c768d0a5236970241663c3bf3ab79dd8f4ee | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6b1a5cebc62ec01b0bd489875e196007845d8ebbda58bd454af62183c6ef2e2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 3-1? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time? | Event: champions-league-final-end-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $1... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-manchester-city-vs-wydad-ac | Will Wydad AC beat Manchester City? | 72,943,105 | 72,943,105 |
fb56f77c4efc4ccfd978191898686f1cc64d7d86 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xee6e97f822d3ef588288fa163b03bc4c10080fb918b112adff68db1ffcb16097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time? | Event: champions-league-final-end-result | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | 72,943,105 | 72,943,105 |
bc8f334fa8c911d002043a1226cc3446ba2b9376 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan win 5-4? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG win 3-2? | Ev... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | 72,943,105 | 72,943,105 |
8edf24ffc681c218cdfce37c7b4c1a87ba3a44dd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x486daf1abbbb7af060fa0f2bab3276bc80056cea14531bf25b5b2c051e1661a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan win 5-4? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Even... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-al-ahly | Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly? | 72,976,948 | 72,976,948 |
57b8949017b57e0ab5f3c208461bb21fd3518c75 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x989b4664c6b3500bfa03f723c15988179e7ca682c9881455d9a55d9634396f73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 3-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG win 4-2? | Event: champions-le... | yes | 0.416666 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | 72,981,458 | 72,981,458 |
c558e36aa6f99650157c80cab6aaa29a0024f471 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xea8ae13f535886d36d71c56abfc64eb50aed95d78823f209318fa706ebc03854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG win 4-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater th... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | 72,981,634 | 72,981,634 |
d93c21f5139a7564d812c358a734c02e6e617755 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x21d64a73a835242282b582f61b22c26f5cf564ec4997866dbd11549e8fa3ac3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win 4-2? | Event: champions-league-final-exact-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 1... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Seattle Sounders beat Atlético Madrid? | 73,002,310 | 73,002,310 |
43dcea2dcb3bd79449d7526be73152abed8016bc | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa33ca2049b433ff2f358ccd33f80d0f3cb39fad7d7a6e25385a6f2927ea632c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-may-31-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Will Atlético Madrid beat Seattle Sounders? | 73,002,310 | 73,002,310 |
77aed4271dbbd2292bc2ef7be9f65a783bc07216 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2bf52074c1f81b4a2940af847e3abb3e0a3d1c05adcace151b07b627e4803b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Karol Nawro... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | 73,015,863 | 73,015,863 |
9ebc1affbc37cb970a4b4b6f056e112e31479da0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5e423df5db1b266d81be1a475a2959fc548bf23701c0e3d95726345326ad28d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20? | 73,015,863 | 73,015,863 |
62b4a7756341d78f9b18eb31165346a5ef76dcfb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc200257fc1ae8e0c29463b293ee5335a932e105b7b2c9c5db81cd765da4a5db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20? | 73,015,863 | 73,015,863 |
117ea39b994b763d4ef8def7f5341b7ee0a7eb26 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x51ecb20f7b9fb366400c52c88bdf9870616c91a524bec92e1c9aeb4cd5a4cf3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | 73,089,221 | 73,089,221 |
38e1195898c9a1025df8bd2e6296c0145f2a019f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xac7076b9237bb55def115256e1b075aba052b2d4b9228a8b2fb6cfb447be414f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 2 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-2-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup | Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? | 73,101,396 | 73,101,396 |
2df9b1c733ff568b0536812661bcfb335397dce8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa850de96dcc5505482fe076206b377e0e7b013b42838bc5ed4c17a1045f4b7ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | 73,119,279 | 73,119,279 |
b091a7593ac5729bbaec8fa912f90b04410ad978 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7fa5e11930654f0922873f4fc01276495be61804c24eb500e7dae1931a0d1e28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jun... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | 73,170,965 | 73,170,965 |
f43b9c7f54a1a46b0b4876d88f287c588e854796 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xccf60f7f50863bf2900b2cf4196dd77fab28df7ddeb3bbf8e07ae477de2fb3fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon twee... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,170,965 | 73,170,965 |
21b0a9b210ad2d7995e2f3e2879a8c7a0de5fd2a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf027bfe9afd9802e136d43ccfb545780d2aaf481f6f023e3d01680d9f2533cca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | 73,170,965 | 73,170,965 |
c06a26a883ecbee1b208ef18df647cf06d3caf5c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xfa11df5cb4aaf2cdd7b69ffadd62522fae79a2e85b2edd76890ef1684c82b9f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bi... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-auckland-city-vs-boca-juniors | Will Boca Juniors beat Auckland City? | 73,198,850 | 73,198,850 |
00a9c0ef5be69a21807b8702e30b946d39c26884 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xde3ac88d04323c002d642c1768327eebe8c6a5ca5ccf80cf921a08f077fc3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 73,280,960 | 73,280,960 |
58aa0cba8dc2e16d9ef52709fd7cc22ff3f6f742 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf2f6a6409e9e0804f763f79123ab6b8cfd0f524c5938e783d857bea43329abc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-june-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? | Event: uefa-nations-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal vs. Spain end in ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Will RB Salzburg win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,280,960 | 73,280,960 |
5f83340e916f05ba77350ff0444588be0f1f1980 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf6171bbca42d04bbd6ba34fb14c53b21bd2b8b97c4efa1d4875dbf3860e1779b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? | Event: uefa-nations-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global temperature increase by less ... | yes | 1 | 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | 73,347,514 | 73,347,514 |
4d8dbd725663d274b92be34d159e7d030aaac69c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? | Event: may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brazil... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | 73,420,289 | 73,420,289 |
55c13c8fcdef1b07d5d8e9478e93a09e9349ce1d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd219e16129ab22d86c00d294e17b7d53cc2b6423033be8b68f94ec9550214f39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? | Event: may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | 73,465,481 | 73,465,481 |
69e1624338563a77fa87959bbfc2a61be2d854ef | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x9998fe64804c59e07553b52462004af2fe0c3f93c1de0ceda47084ca815aced1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany U21 beat Slovenia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-germany-vs-slovenia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Bor... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-1-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 1 at 5PM ET? | 73,467,642 | 73,467,642 |
7353f953bf6a4bf51382ac6daef3fce8ef1a3177 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3f227da20c2a8578a949a1bc7edd5928052cfedc6e48cdcda7d63bebede86b3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany U21 beat Slovenia U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-germany-vs-slovenia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will R... | no | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,492,806 | 73,492,806 |
a050a3e767debf1177d9107d67c1594a0991d9f6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2ec0458f080556c8f455b970674235f48b952249b82391470e94dd0586bab306 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | 73,510,598 | 73,510,598 |
de455b29df314e7c5f5acf8aef0a900234d63ec0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xe56710fd0203ce384c6d38ac99b8774e1912a723abde911a29385e9f97ccd16e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will River Plate beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 2 at 5PM ET? | 73,510,598 | 73,510,598 |
95a83b8a6298dca5f6a5ffe67243cfbaa64cf297 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x418ba4a9a0b1f07b810de272b24c642ef69cd3f2677ed06b75dd2078880902a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Urawa Red Diamonds beat River Plate? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | 73,548,017 | 73,548,017 |
6da70cbe8da5ba01d809a1443892ded413382fa0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x97186bf38e6907752ce2fe9254c344c4d99294ab2bdabfc2996c1cee05dee32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will River Plate vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-urawa-red-diamonds | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-3-798 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 3? | 73,550,775 | 73,550,775 |
0880a5a6710157830ac6c3123320a7086f81ddbe | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8214929dfc630d5a900d0fb3f0b1213bcdc94f60abd1968da357859de50a0686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wydad AC beat Manchester City? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-manchester-city-vs-wydad-ac | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid ... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | 73,576,092 | 73,576,092 |
1ff8e14593095af8ac36109304f73511b60094be | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x833fd071dcf33f7f7f5ba1f1bdd31c144c5c9906020b9c47f496478376f4bea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wydad AC beat Manchester City? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-manchester-city-vs-wydad-ac | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change in Fed interest r... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | 73,576,092 | 73,576,092 |
8bbe01c099ea9cdcf92a1ad31a01946758ea60d8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5561f1a7befdd9a0be4b7f805fb3610139f12825beea62413ece7255be14bdc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly? | E... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | 73,581,957 | 73,581,957 |
a63bf527b01b326a82d08bc609a77c7067274df3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6c4c52c20bed8ee65785c00f0a43be7ff1b8dd8a5b7613d4c8d13bf116cbeb47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-al-ahly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | Eve... | no | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,587,953 | 73,587,953 |
576cc83073f58b126ab918490c609e56e199814b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x93b5c20dbd89dc2e04eae5a3783f8335ea63a11acde69b1860cf9773ee2be85f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-al-ahly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4166664718750268
3. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter... | yes | 0.203187 | ethereum-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,587,953 | 73,587,953 |
bc16c764c633c7871a008b8e77b79a15569f6f39 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2d1a0d6aa6577f8319f851ddcbe371c04bb937a5e361c620b02fe5b5a10ad622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4166664718750268
2. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Seattle Sounde... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,625,672 | 73,625,672 |
3167125572e48f2c8cbef5c88d7ea67cb3c8e5b1 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0ed0d4d3086009e9ebfbb7df6686dee15855bebe2a64d809a1e909957150fbff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Seattle Sounders beat Atlético Madrid? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlétic... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,709,439 | 73,709,439 |
8f9698bf062a8c8b7f9cfe8e8fc00c3e5d4c8dcb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb1590ad4c1be4fc31864a08dcc4e445e3759188198b3309ffa9c8a9ae324d338 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders beat Atlético Madrid? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,709,439 | 73,709,439 |
ae3a84d4f410134eade2ab6af8cfca54b9ceabba | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xe7ab25cff69d47ca51f58644e2fec6c9e8c872b3b2ab7466af1159181a22a0ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-seattle-sounders-vs-atltico-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon twee... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,709,439 | 73,709,439 |
2e71a202e41ffd9f89bc5e783d5c3bc2fa28a97f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xffccc2b3c2e49646404f2e0046fdb7dfcbd603cd6ccdb6b1dec7c3d8aeec6729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,789,938 | 73,789,938 |
1d682e2e85ea4259979ae9debb41077ccd22f784 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2b0bfd93edb986831c1dca98d077d7aa6b2702fc4d3ac8ae0385a7d89c38b863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fif... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,936,260 | 73,936,260 |
5119c3fb536cf200c56f671b32e0f21c616e11c2 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? | Event: fifa-cl... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,936,260 | 73,936,260 |
fe4d08a433be4defc6cf860a5114a4fb82b085c0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7ee5637b76236ee5bf564b4e2b2441f0adada8c3fcf4b0b0d297a68d037f8c93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-worl... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | 74,167,759 | 74,167,759 |
e61edb8632f226c9c27b0f7733171c951515a0e4 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8d54219ef43b4a2ba1904ba6155786263d1e3005dcd6bac978d28e3ada2aa489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | Event: fi... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-july | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 74,668,339 | 74,668,339 |
a82d378bdb71b5355813de00559332ed8a0b69a8 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Sai... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,668,339 | 74,668,339 |
c1dd23839425c2a3ddd8cc8e1d903768f36da7cb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6d2a7e51ffc91af437a163087752cdc9eb191e9c69f578e29dc6da24738bdbb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? | 75,086,372 | 75,086,372 |
57379c097bfd677c046765f7aaa3714f926dc4f9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb8f1ad1f28984ae57915604d50a4ba0033f3354b4a27a5975d6cae4ec155b35a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | 75,086,372 | 75,086,372 |
a42c0071802bc2a3cb6094af8c2e9ed7b7c79ad9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x57ee125c6f5b57b1b0c537289443d791a604e2c9e8d2a7a37d626cb4118c92e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Boca Juniors beat Auckland City? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-auckland-city-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City ... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15? | 75,253,930 | 75,253,930 |
96b1e0d24a441eac8604b123f0a72c494779bfbd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd9fb651820e89dcd273f1ce71acab66154c29a7514401f0f5872e0bff087d71e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boca Juniors beat Auckland City? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-auckland-city-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RB Salzb... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 15? | 75,253,930 | 75,253,930 |
daa3d0be96ecde97c0a6fadb93f560c576bb57c2 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x34ccfc4480be9be40d035a22c9ce7d6555d1b41d907ef3a9e40828b9ba6e0cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Salzburg win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will G... | no | 1 | epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-17? | 75,447,629 | 75,447,629 |
05f0df9b252e43976a59f15f7274551ff8af8fd6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd4b0a2d13dcdc7802d3976e22f9024d0f09d8b96b06305db715c308c4ffab16c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RB Salzburg win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | Event: 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 17 at 5PM ET? | 75,447,629 | 75,447,629 |
dda60fb24495426e39f4c54879b744bce9c45ecd | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x17c9e9c952be43752e6c24cb11f8c6ffc6ecc976e307dbcebac2f628a0aca27a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | Event: 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | 75,545,799 | 75,545,799 |
1173c5b055204989b3259a356295c15a7164dd99 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x445fedd6310e305084ba634211d23760252791c7c76672404c4890ee64efeaa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | yes | 1 | ucl-cel-kay-2025-08-20 | Will Celtic vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw? | 75,545,799 | 75,545,799 |
21c8bcef8489ea46b003d32af1b325bf63f34c4f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6cf7cbc4caddcf6ae8a1685bbfeeb82f13d1b65615b1a87e8b9814bc058ebfe6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | Event: houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 1 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-1-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a club... | no | 1 | ucl-bod-sgr-2025-08-20 | Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-20? | 75,545,799 | 75,545,799 |
c9edf76051b133bf27a6c134ef917d60591a2e5d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x80fa70baeebc81c5c0c9d53ce2aec58e2eb049a0d426d8167c24c843b533cc2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 1 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-1-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | uel-abe-fcsb-2025-08-21 | Will Aberdeen vs. FCSB end in a draw? | 75,545,799 | 75,545,799 |
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