sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
654e586eb2d7b65d642a3ac2fcc01ef55d9812db | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x74d38a04781b7e0db81a56da292f31e2374622f055cd2506c789e35cafca8dcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Moana 2" h... | no | 1 | what-price-will-solana-hit-in-december | Will Solana hit $200 in December? | 65,683,126 | 65,683,126 |
b44c9e216f3342906755b0fd141d17fbe953f73b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1d02c606e9fe6e536190230eb57fef7a279e4f0214e6ccebceb61ad7674fce1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Will the fight end in Round 7? | 65,789,349 | 65,789,349 |
67cf4968647560eb8b1bf486be18cc54262bbca9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3b5ea12db654893a4096e462eddcb5f81e286dde1a0236f9388258faeea0009d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69? | Event: moana-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Will the fight end in Round 1? | 65,789,349 | 65,789,349 |
9622f95c534ab208764ab165c92e500b535d4933 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc771e00460b55e701ebf39b36ea72124e6fabc10a23ab010294950fd71665d96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 1 | how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Will the fight go the distance? | 65,789,349 | 65,789,349 |
80d40c328c9aaff375a43848d8abb3b68101a697 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x643a489de21c4c07d50065a90cb44f3b3e746a54660b940eaf21a1d9e4dc4a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: moana-2-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | 66,003,325 | 66,003,325 |
07c7acb9afceeaa522585b6896afeafe5459eaad | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3c381e9908e8a2baebfda0d40e6eef507971cc3d0bfcb84ba78dae6480b65398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Ch... | army | 1 | cfb-lt-army-2024-12-28 | Louisiana Tech vs. Army | 66,055,680 | 66,055,680 |
8aa784a17a836e453db22473fcd9d4d722d439ac | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8a8d14636fb261b71ccc50e58b7a3a18d068ff25190842491f4ddf93a1553b0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? ... | yes | 1 | nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | 66,122,306 | 66,122,306 |
5438e2638fd8b73a20fd6c7d693c5f77354e744d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf33646f38adb2f123c159c022e9e24425e9d0a2e69a7a1f6d905490eec3bd176 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-lei-wes-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be ... | no | 1 | epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-30? | 66,128,192 | 66,128,192 |
f294e0a0731b9d5be86175df09585a48be07ae43 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,167,636 | 66,167,636 |
560766c7030f34c7c6291f91d269cae4c5fa20c9 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? | Event: namibia-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-04? | ... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,270,559 | 66,270,559 |
692d019486d4e6540bcd16ddaa69b6acd034d416 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xae8638f7c3050ae02ba440971123df24f1af8e0aad5d056ea538f769cbcbfab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choi... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,270,559 | 66,270,559 |
7403aa9ab02ba55848514fb3e5604503e8e753ea | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc201255ac4fd4ca73d38eb331681dd9c4597fc85ed52a89ef664fa399a2f185a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-94000-on-january-3 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | 66,270,559 | 66,270,559 |
abf0d0c68d3fb07c1204843a70c774d3aa138c4c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x31f44648301a3ba591cef8e9de397bfdf74c64de40dee9458b07dbc7629a6088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-202... | no | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,285,114 | 66,285,114 |
5e9aa26b4e4c9d533498ebb6a4d11c5b3e8d4530 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x47531c9032a272679648284fdf10a47ee52da16ce2525c6a925962e0693b21c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-... | no | 1 | trudeau-out-before-april | Trudeau out before April? | 66,387,378 | 66,387,378 |
9cd30a42cfa9f36445550235725920c9c1f905a5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x66b3b3bbf5758d3cc69ebfc45137c5d17e612046d972d0b5d512c02bb1823865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-De... | no | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | 66,403,719 | 66,403,719 |
d8743114a0aa276c311109843f87a81cee1be132 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa23fde75349cd2ef1d57de351466c3fd15fd197b440c3461963cb9d44f8fde01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 550 or mor... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | 66,403,719 | 66,403,719 |
8424ce5c6e995d25b481a1b82ee71800db3c3f34 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1978a7043a271f33cdeeea0bb5e66ca6a31d8b3f4161b09d3d84904625ddacc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-49... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 10-17? | 66,858,922 | 66,858,922 |
5b873ea17e436de8f5c43a472f68c21aff16e326 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4e70dfe9c91d9f7ce7ff589a582758901517509cb48bc039c521012d3c6f4095 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brian Thompson Perp arrested ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 10-17? | 66,858,922 | 66,858,922 |
95d8ee1f320dc7227fbafabac9c07d7d0e134922 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc2c72adced0b422510c011f24718530e68697b33bc22f97d26e24a05a96d4701 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Brian Thompson Perp arrested on Saturday? | Event: when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No Brian Thompson Perp arr... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 10-17? | 66,858,922 | 66,858,922 |
b57b006e9285f15aa200b97c1494afe03f91fd1d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2cb1a78f1cbbc182b4235fda475a21ae1dcf22bfc29982c9f1e5c30fcee2d7c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Brian Thompson Perp arrested on Saturday? | Event: when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Sunday? | Event: when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will John Mahama ... | no | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary | Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? | 67,146,080 | 67,146,080 |
a625e364424f06b66370d316a9edf120c80d310b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Sunday? | Event: when-will-brian-thompson-perp-be-arrested | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana? | Event: ghana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-6 ti... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,258,942 | 67,258,942 |
e192f70417c9904174bd5c5a965e0e1f058dafd0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1db9ace6bbae5d1783dc88619b828a0a5a265b49c6d160eca7fb67c079bd65a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana? | Event: ghana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-1... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? | 67,404,949 | 67,404,949 |
d953497caa1f50736d5b71dce2a11af8a2d197a6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x36891b5f352c99f3231a24a21aaa8362f98f5992cf661d40910bfe6ee02b0e24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 5-6 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? | 67,404,949 | 67,404,949 |
a90169fe770ba36f276ad66a924da07524203968 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf2d9e4b280288159c6202e86d6a69e850ce80c361ba09e348de445a951b796f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 9-10 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999452707284568
3. Question: Will Nottingha... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? | 67,404,949 | 67,404,949 |
f6e6bd1ea15621bd45863244c1b9783b007aa248 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x6dd742c3d45b2381cf328d8a43fe4cd36d872c94920089b72da2f9159d8be2be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-december-6-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999452707284568
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Wes... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,709,468 | 67,709,468 |
7991613cbe5fdd3f2e2bcafb69766528643ccd8e | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa83748af6ac0f019ccd3eb2707fdf6319cabdda86f587e8d0001cd3ca63ba422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump get 70-72m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presiden... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,709,468 | 67,709,468 |
84111768f715253e17dfbe8fe7407cc97c754d23 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x77dbb9231bdae32094130b25ea970969adfce2b0d9b29a41c4f1f405a4601415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump get 70-72m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RFK Jr. win <1%... | no | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,925,432 | 67,925,432 |
1aa8582ebfc885b007ccc7d9938cb3f8a0de49ae | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5c1043c64737b78c988d81d1a0dce1e6badd1f655dcb0f6062b4f21a16ab8ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump get 70-72m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? | Event: how-many-votes-will-trump-get | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? | Event: rfk-popular-vote-share | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pennsylvania be th... | yes | 1 | kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | 68,021,334 | 68,021,334 |
66a19dea2c169c0af468fc4a852ac2cf212a97f1 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x25ae67b3e2ad3897a6bb4261c4df6de2e56fbc49870dbd3687051e0cad196fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? | Event: rfk-popular-vote-share | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Solana hit $200 in December? | Event:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | 68,202,565 | 68,202,565 |
49953ac3bc51c6f9687a237e787014d10f61b700 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x74c68b3e4e27d104600cae587eaa0e6afa4c8ae738f04c28a2fca43a2bd372f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | Event: us-election-tipping-point-state | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Solana hit $200 in December? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the fight end in Round 7? | Ev... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-director-oft-the-fbi | Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director? | 68,202,565 | 68,202,565 |
42cb7ea4e09b2b055df053b3ad3a4c3ba1c2ac4e | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8846491e4b7442c87a64ee3aef2d6ef2b1725eb1ab68003f5265520b5deab1b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Solana hit $200 in December? | Event: what-price-will-solana-hit-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the fight end in Round 7? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: ho... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? | 68,202,565 | 68,202,565 |
daf2cf490ffc687d081ee233cc826d63dfadccdf | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x97a14499cc8b4d7540676eaa0ac6c14b1d362a8d56f07dcfd3b9d1d741ac790c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 7? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the fight go the distance? | Event: ho... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? | 68,219,464 | 68,219,464 |
b363d436bfaa344ad12716c9862709872b2daa70 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xf7e1434c8e7c8bedd67fdabfef6dae50a72045473d6fe489b257d4806ee0b168 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the fight go the distance? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? | 68,219,464 | 68,219,464 |
881e1e29999aa742b5fd11d26b85df7d2b133416 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight go the distance? | Event: how-many-rounds-will-usyk-vs-fury-2-last | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Louisiana Tech vs. Army | Event: cfb-... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,355,331 | 68,355,331 |
4a7195c8675cefc4ddbb30abd67a50888c0490d0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5eb712298a5f9808ad04286cae74eece84f1fa9fd0a51970317eeb37b244b823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Louisiana Tech vs. Army | Event: cfb-lt-army-2024-12-28 | Choice: army | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | E... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28? | 68,492,635 | 68,492,635 |
11ad5333e7419a2692906bb3cf10df2c39cb78ca | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x94c8411e32d3e62ea3094a6b7df7ff84bca85d27a9b50a0ddc52f8bac04b342c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Louisiana Tech vs. Army | Event: cfb-lt-army-2024-12-28 | Choice: army | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-30? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | 68,492,635 | 68,492,635 |
3e30bd62c413b14233bafada170de41bae719a0d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0d282c849c5cdb0a4b68064fdfed69765a61e88d5fc3b04269fc5e01677add9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI m... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | 68,738,053 | 68,738,053 |
57c7f59818625c7b4030bcc6fdb4739e83659964 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x365b4805cdd891562f5257879d694c2e743c6aefa0c0bfb71a499533bf0e4b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Event: high... | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | 69,099,568 | 69,099,568 |
ec2b3687f16fc5eee62dc71b47a250cdba08ad19 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5a5891fef3ceb7ef471bab5a2bc6062e1bb5e583060c2c089143d26715074a04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times De... | no | 1 | ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | 69,099,568 | 69,099,568 |
3af0089a9acaf0997186b0899e5c212533f38358 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa90f816567e77cda9f983d43e7cc71e0455c890f7f9d82b1e71bdf65badfddec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin above $94,000 on ... | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 69,099,568 | 69,099,568 |
1bd1b14315f29a50a6d5d8131c6a96f0d7511946 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xd68f141aff610df79e579ad93c223cd1771d69ab0a42d33ce5013bbbe7a43934 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | Event: bitcoin-above-94000-on-january-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the... | no | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | 69,099,568 | 69,099,568 |
e7eb5bea0c4c1bb585b4af29592ba617edd753f2 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x561713c67ec96c45ef47218bdb1ac4bdbcfa13ffe8b20513722c78bc6427ccab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | Event: bitcoin-above-94000-on-january-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trudeau out before April? | Even... | arkansas | 1 | cbb-ark-ttu-2025-03-27 | Arkansas vs. Texas Tech | 69,608,783 | 69,608,783 |
b861a393ebdf5e40ab7e81b4ba901ea2d8ce4ca3 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x20cc003f4a4e1587148fb9629cda11d0db9a48aed16a3a50f6d024c58c615157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trudeau out before April? | Event: trudeau-out-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,753,411 | 69,753,411 |
16737ec38fba264bc21b280e51da62302415c373 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x244cfad6c4066323b43140eed3e200b6bb6def5739d9c70206c00485cca82856 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trudeau out before April? | Event: trudeau-out-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,753,411 | 69,753,411 |
69624b9747ece00adcbc1bdcfc75c02c398873b5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x351e7fcd6ad2e3bc73472b1c147b9dc9a3a66328534cd2ce4e135f3ce842a5f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-twee... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4? | 69,908,415 | 69,908,415 |
ea13cdbf5feb73815910b4ff2007ae22a92be4d1 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5f968a5e4fb990eebf4d70f36ae5f96c48b6beebd55d0900e843880d1a60ab60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | Event: epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 1... | no | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend? | 70,048,931 | 70,048,931 |
164ce6d4abb52d4e4481438e7e632136a171f891 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3f2b3a183c9621537c0bdac0ac774a63d037b5e58320d68a95755c1dd766c905 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | 70,169,063 | 70,169,063 |
d52594c2e83c6c126c792632dcdc84582c6e36f4 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x85d1cc7775688c2cb87b07f89c2302c867ef77255ea4e65e7589194b95f0c22e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ron DeSant... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? | 70,169,063 | 70,169,063 |
97d4a8409547bd19fc396097a996cd4cdc74fa73 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3642a4e445b534ca364fade04bb77aeb07d2aad3e939c4b360ad0f1db920b34c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 10-17? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander L... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
2fe5749c114975d38e016c98dec31e0c656b4109 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
60f42156eec6b39255e6c485cc49ac75f9c9d618 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5d95c5d73fdbfa8476a4061f6319c252dc5b0c2d6246ae02c913630a0a00f636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon t... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
623b2ecaa2897128b0a6fbc8962eeb8622328cc5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x64adc3c2287ec64397e3f1c487aa59963987bf2cc5b9d3d4845dcf7e2aa826cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times J... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
aee145fe896868ad40884e047aca6d7318746665 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x79e3b601da5c99f34dadb2e73d00ddde68c3b3b4fe2573348d27d3ca698e5416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-cry-2025-04-12 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
8def8b66ca903228d210d9be395651e549205199 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x89936e03bd1d00ffe1764297f18298079f3465677af8ef38b1119b3b429b7469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
a4a84d482ff76c48fcfc8764fb587aaeb2d0d66b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xfb452a20b70cd3b3739f0ffb422e345073e81954a7c9b059cb8603b0c704eff3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? | 70,223,295 | 70,223,295 |
7cfc2713ebecf4e95b7bb5647330deef3cd46301 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb8ab7d2b487ae66540de6ec2db5be00d481452653d0de0bdcf0bcd49686e0eef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | Event: how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? | 70,232,231 | 70,232,231 |
9a40650013d322ba81fbb2de3531ad36ea25e37d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x3c39b9214ace713fac04c261e3502c7032dcdf731322ca8ab3c8d2dcd962ca9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | Event: how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-new-mun-2025-04-13 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13? | 70,271,144 | 70,271,144 |
9704089a7daf9e34a899e89a87c72a5cc2121237 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xce0f82dc8bb789ffd3bc2928db80bbc539fa04dd223d6e15e2d81eabf8e279fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI dire... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | 70,385,605 | 70,385,605 |
fe046072248a3f2d5ca15574105467b82e30899d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xdb17fd6c9b1bf3976e9df9e43ec8d0c0f653dd267d0d8cf007612d96fc1c2d85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-director-oft-the-fbi | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599 times F... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15? | 70,385,605 | 70,385,605 |
57d2a05d395e2bddd1d49d5b39051e26ade9d1da | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4b2dbb6b9343b0c28945e3df6feb2a5b2cc0809073d49596af411f4a1f456d72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-director-oft-the-fbi | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 750-799 times F... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | 70,502,914 | 70,502,914 |
a6e16368dff9b05e5ad25060b9503cb521074d94 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xaa396c6bc1a16dfc30eb776074453a3125e0508dd29c306c72abd8663b40bbd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 70,638,693 | 70,638,693 |
c034b39b25007c277daac287f29b01769ecc429b | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc5fb88e5849010106ac78f2ec85ea3ffc35dc7c3f9f51875cfaec8ca686e0eb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next ... | yes | 1 | 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | 70,638,693 | 70,638,693 |
92a52ce9a85782fae702049171d90b9fb1b841e6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x405534c03f82e56a397478db7b068dbb683fb46c976265f650ba6510200749da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Liverpool wins the Premier League? | 70,842,150 | 70,842,150 |
60adfdd3c2cf8d2f2267f84470b7706d5f632cbe | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x59bf9552fbb1326de216ead44e95d8356fd15905bf094d571d1b5f5f4a9ec5e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-april | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | 70,967,842 | 70,967,842 |
9eec011fff0ea8a4786848289c7445a2676242c0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5aebf0de3b3b325075f4fd813d2884f5706b0ea1434a4745897af941b3ed1e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-ben-bar-20... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,967,842 | 70,967,842 |
5a01a487c83ec6d75041ed8394ab233cc14dd1ee | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | Event: epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,967,842 | 70,967,842 |
360209acf535cbb4d7b5e6bf71ae38efc41b00ca | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xae6dab898b0531faf72bf9f09517538249131850cfe48b309f7f91124411c380 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-0... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,967,842 | 70,967,842 |
174b5b84d056960ae8b6504b771f62b567726b24 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x8bcf00a72ec8bb81e29952d7bb85c8aa924401f6ee8c37c742fa9b3ca3f8e5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-l... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96000 and $98000 on May 2? | 71,071,370 | 71,071,370 |
abf909fa1cac99975240e451984f1d2084192148 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa118c52922daa425ebae8d1693ba7c68fa0fcf561127218e3b784faaf24ffd6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German elec... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92000 and $94000 on May 2? | 71,071,370 | 71,071,370 |
4e3d9eadea534f5264ac14ca197b8f9999897882 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x50c4f5ba1ac8019947315a3cd7c667138381fea52fae9697b31a74e163ca6fc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Arkansas vs. Texas Tec... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-australia | Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | 71,168,515 | 71,168,515 |
31043e8113b1d6d7c8e3c791944c40e86247be53 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech | Event: cbb-ark-ttu-2025-03-27 | Choice: arkansas | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on Marc... | yes | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,196,260 | 71,196,260 |
daa5a6176380ec8595464b6f35c62914a9918a20 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb5ce5b209d1a3e52e16d7a6729bfce2c030f9e6101ccfe7bb01fdee856b6cc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech | Event: cbb-ark-ttu-2025-03-27 | Choice: arkansas | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on Ma... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Inter vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 71,210,884 | 71,210,884 |
4bbb36f2822dec4d1fed51f6baf21488ac989d25 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xbcb70e357694345bcd6b1a2c7c999a352843b6044f3d36dd494ac18661c25ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government | Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | 71,210,884 | 71,210,884 |
c75b1774701d74ad5a569640d22c6b44ebaf86eb | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x48c772dfbfc2d4e94494efc5693b1b19aef44b194aaf0bdf2bef8cef33d3423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get less than 60m views in first 24 hours? | 71,291,411 | 71,291,411 |
5ba401b78a57284d18cdeffb628f3db1441ffb75 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcf9147f9671c19ba52b24b219757d8f01d90c82779216ee1d7b5359bc642b507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $84000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-gta-vi-trailer-2-on-day-1 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get more than 120m views in first 24 hours? | 71,291,411 | 71,291,411 |
e9fe2bbce125e24b224a279fe76d8a98363b2ce0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xba95a0ff610cae048e6e17dd0314d0f5db10fd9f2bb97364a733d5b82c3095a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09?... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-9-233 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on May 9? | 71,361,013 | 71,361,013 |
32c1d50c067e1c69add8cd280bc3ba0a2412aa21 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x99a76eb4959604e2a1b7c6dedf1f75fb19491df21deb746388a2b65c0c1713c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | Event: b... | yes | 1 | la-liga-winner | Will Barcelona win La Liga? | 71,577,575 | 71,577,575 |
d92ee45f65f52c59970a7ead268ac31cedcd44a0 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x13c58e87927e6260f825b1a40dcfc3ce411d8aab33e4fbe977069f24803efdd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? | Event: ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
e65864a80f4d9a7f5214b502be9b4841b5162d28 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x2b7de40d9a57e5a8d1ec1dbf1e817afaf7ab650a2b410889995f74f6e1157701 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of B... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
db6d5638a9306c7052f986c7a250d0f0ba4a06ad | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x7af4394ed2fecfb1b849e9850abcb75ab9407ca104b848cb3f1585a9f84f9619 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitc... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
6cfe2ab5cedd810f9601b3742fde0742a5a94d83 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb3754b4895883e1a2ccfbfbb820311cadbfd8e06aa6d1177641ac20e536e62f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manches... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
a783c3e5c9dc45c7b2576b0eafc25eb78ff2a0ba | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb6fdb3d8767d89a0f762d736c9d921e74df62b9cf423f9fcc9fdd6bb59247f26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12? | Event: epl-mac-cry-2025-04-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be be... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102000 and $104000 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
f43b7bf21259bbbec57aaaeee4d5911406cfb861 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xc670963ad90e15c6a74c0b9c35abd618d5ca3b99578970383e0641cfb7204e4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12? | Event: epl-mac-cry-2025-04-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be b... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? | 71,605,588 | 71,605,588 |
2a3c08f471c0ee07fea59f9786e57911adb3ddaf | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa8bca73047f215280f0f188d57dd644f322753ae25788f3c43954adbb0c8e7e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16? | 71,644,036 | 71,644,036 |
8ed39ea7b41da04ddd65e93db42ebf2a3b7f7bcf | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xde62d4df95d7ce1ba3267ae8595afb8738f9d64219ba28f43ac6603b2f163448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16? | 71,644,036 | 71,644,036 |
6a89732584fd48f6285f35c53ebece79e346aaa5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xfbafe9652e2a601483617d45a093325f66b3b574bd710392f352bde60bb0c30d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13? | Event: epl-new-mun-2025-04-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champi... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-16 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16? | 71,644,036 | 71,644,036 |
85f5983883cd352e3c853cee30513ddf5f9d052f | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13? | Event: epl-new-mun-2025-04-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15? | Event: u... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
fce7fddfc1163207e43e1c3e5076f80b9b5d4ff6 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x5efffd4501a780fa90ac21cb3089d434d8c84d11679f9f59369f6be8af494dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? ... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-jury-winner | Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
e9e7f701da5a28862d3f501d51a07b963a14ecaa | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: ... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
60ee018b9919b0f6f579a3c776627672463d378c | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xb566e7a0d39f7566907641776dc8c227df83fb477090688f21b7efcfd55da46b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-bay-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Pres... | no | 1 | eurovision-2025-televote-winner | Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
31fbb361b725e33eadea32caadfa1e633683464d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-ars-2025-04-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Liver... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
a6510d4d0759b89a7a0ab6ede08a3103a6089f36 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xeff54605054d6070060667186f674f6b1bb85413b0dea7ad510b252a45409f44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? | Event: 2025-gabonese-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Appl... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,909 | 71,680,909 |
8049927a8a8f26e7f3b972a6056df4fad269de79 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0bcffe36d01cf51c018ec3e281285e2748dc7e896df72f8faf4a886cc081571f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have th... | yes | 1 | eurovision-2025-top-5 | Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | 71,680,910 | 71,680,910 |
43ba71292b73e0c6c9b664c89c37f1447846f6fe | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,720,584 | 71,720,584 |
2b83ccdd01eaeb934dc0568fa9c478b253efe46d | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x238f92ebe6ff56780524f967556e5048eb1abf14d7b28aae1d9da028fe3d7dee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the L... | no | 1 | epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Will Brighton win on 2025-05-19? | 71,750,863 | 71,750,863 |
7bf7ae9e87579ff40d524700b886e41858e71009 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 71,750,863 | 71,750,863 |
c13c5a66958a9fae68f3052bcfba582b8c4dd2a5 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x0b5812b8c3ac02d3b0d13fef6d6c93a03ad7791f3e2d13519599e67aa71f08ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96000 and $98000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | 71,800,550 | 71,800,550 |
a7295d74eb9d5eb9701b7f94065b6a51e61e03ad | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x4d2ef73506b82c190f3d47ed7e3e7b02a375b454e11bb931699b8ba93cdb0db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96000 and $98000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92000 and $94000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Peter... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | 71,891,550 | 71,891,550 |
235c9bfb0e6585e327027953141c575b227d2363 | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0x1dc58284e7743dc0119455539c9a97281b247b34d464a2c76a8225e92ce1b0fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92000 and $94000 on May 2? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-australia | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | 71,992,974 | 71,992,974 |
91f94b0725da737a4e9e3032367e1b78e8fdf40a | 0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e | 0xef18479513dd77b478cadb272e5c4864c7ae700422113ec686d3ade7f8f46ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-australia | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? | 72,034,692 | 72,034,692 |
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