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0a95a18354cb48f2c75332bbee48100ed29c7d5f
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x992307e2d3e15fb0c309ef154ff34026651df85522c498ce6f0dca22736cd5d6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: ...
no
1
ucl-cel-kay-2025-08-20
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-08-20?
75,545,799
75,545,799
45c07ca148ff4550b8200bf381e75a5248a72833
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xad7bfd20bc0b7cf6c854d08d31d708afd1c8ddeb375c66e8e2c6610e8a513fd8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3....
yes
1
ucl-bod-sgr-2025-08-20
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-20?
75,545,799
75,545,799
0fb971bbcfe029c2f221a8c2a4568af8f4eb0075
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xb1593840e4f3e985e6967092b51c89a7b7e80b77667de9af1aca1bf6384e7cab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1....
no
1
uel-abe-fcsb-2025-08-21
Will Aberdeen win on 2025-08-21?
75,545,799
75,545,799
f8ea3625e7b46e1ff7a55c0e146dc664e761ebea
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xdae23add7864da0f01de5dd52e0dfcb99ad88d126b0e877937cd3dd71c55473f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 3 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-3-5pm-et-419 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-3-798 | Choice: no | C...
yes
1
uel-lin-bra-2025-08-21
Will SC Braga win on 2025-08-21?
75,545,799
75,545,799
8f313a33f36a0710b51daf75358d34434ac99d91
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xf367118b7df034eb7837d1a72f8335a66d684aaef5d698f3fdf301791c915783
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-3-798 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | ...
yes
1
lal-bil-ray-2025-08-25
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-25?
75,655,483
75,655,483
0f3a6a195da4b0ef1e36ed91af4716f8d6c772d2
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xe453294107599650363e440f770779cef9ab4a30976ae7ce9814e22dcaa7bc87
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-scor...
yes
1
sea-int-tor-2025-08-25
Will Inter win on 2025-08-25?
75,657,752
75,657,752
c2a4e3356b670d605b88c667e84eee955490bb51
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xb77636e216631f195c54a7649b428a3ebe64c655421c3212e6001a93548b3a4b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. ...
yes
1
which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-august
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
76,292,744
76,292,744
9df16425699dd33d8849641f2c19ff3b06335f2d
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xc16d8bd3f8ff7642f0c7ada89577bacb9876c3e4002ad1c0d6b87e340bf6790e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the ...
no
1
largest-company-end-of-august
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
76,292,744
76,292,744
177397d4dfedd636d55bcda5cc89aa5b296c9892
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x0e713da86bc51b0cc2ac5b2a77055974dc479b11bb44019c594df35a62b77116
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20318743...
no
1
bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-12?
76,561,969
76,561,969
2eef7b2febeead70b068ae87b6dc1b921ccf6255
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x348ae0b3ef1006fc06e042705d92b55c21a4d19464579b42bf76430e4b6ed2c7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on July 4 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20318743602802802 2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question...
yes
1
bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13?
76,561,969
76,561,969
707d97a8e5824191d4c9f016efaf3e436dc7d9c4
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x42ef427d3b65855d71b0ad74a7cd6ec354b8fa0dc8e29a02562197459be976e1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the pri...
yes
1
largest-company-end-of-august
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
76,570,807
76,570,807
dab9697d9d2e3304a1e06b1553074356eb94df30
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1....
yes
1
ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18?
76,651,866
76,651,866
73692d107e445c7acd9188dec9dc2acdbeb64b16
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x4259ebbcfb77b75d5b63d1551290ee074c2102bbf20762d7f12b28b72cbf4050
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3...
no
1
ucl-bru-mon-2025-09-18
Will Monaco win on 2025-09-18?
76,651,866
76,651,866
f0967103be42fd29cff5487f2eb74b261936cec9
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x4a76201df2897be2ae1a8ab7005d073d4bf8c02192a4abf912c29bfdef0c0335
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win t...
yes
1
ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?
76,651,866
76,651,866
76f8381bbe97304c41691e6a11f32be32b079613
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x4b34f911560389d36bcc187f5e8be289f24155d6ad8c98c81aa1db3ee699a543
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Ev...
yes
1
ucl-sla-bod-2025-09-17
Will Slavia Praha vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?
76,651,866
76,651,866
632bd1c0f76dfd2b0e05a82c60f0f5fc40b06a6e
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x5bc75e146bd30e715695ea21722b3865ef93ccbdf059ac2a2c7e71aef050643c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | Even...
yes
1
ucl-kob-b04-2025-09-18
Will FC Kopenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?
76,651,866
76,651,866
53d087f97a64bbd0178b799f2e695af76487a049
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x938c588686381deb39f3b556914db2cb034a84ed36631b58d6b80b1dbeb1f904
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the wor...
yes
1
ucl-bru-mon-2025-09-18
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-18?
76,651,866
76,651,866
f613381ea4b646210fedbe696bab6ac7d3f99896
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-11-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Go...
yes
1
ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?
76,651,866
76,651,866
edb1a3d44823dc337a416679215e10ac1a5759e5
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Que...
yes
1
ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17?
76,651,866
76,651,866
2a91b6a79fe56ae160b7032aed4b0b903c5d7358
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xdaad3d37d50c15a78e5a9bfc82530779c12192c386b0d25199e9962eaadf7578
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the price o...
yes
1
ucl-oly-paf-2025-09-17
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs. Pafos FC end in a draw?
76,651,866
76,651,866
87fd1117870c0225ba39a5be6de3c5cc21719c8c
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0xe8d095422da9f6c3ceed727a4b6251177f618b002d2a698bfccb48716c7aa469
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate...
no
1
fed-decision-in-september
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
76,651,866
76,651,866
9e365d83a56e021aa74f5016bc55214007f31caa
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on August 4? | Event: solana-price-on-august-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Quest...
no
1
bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19?
76,661,035
76,661,035
f7ecac517799ca19c7d8e83f71014f61fc9119b0
0x20f79c3748a8fbdf876c892eeeda32a590cb635e
0x00a7cb9092ac458b5be2bc47c5ecf506a7e6e024cb76aa83581aa0d1beefe674
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on August 15? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
yes
1
bun-lei-koe-2025-09-20
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-20?
76,736,603
76,736,603
55caee0dc26a8f17d68e20754a64ed82c135a7e6
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x057bc9fb889c49ccbc38806d9c58ea897839d7d390e481238d818a8c01298e70
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
2025-wimbledon-winner-m
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025?
73,486,912
73,486,912
264c4309bc53e879957773938ce8030e522290d9
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xad5c2225599157e5c54739adeaa1f4c3d7b608f026e0ddc1cd3dac34dd14f765
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON...
no
1
israel-strike-on-yemen-on
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?
76,324,554
76,324,554
442f5a94e6e73fe9af73304eda5a27879eb994c0
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x376156919b158f0e5a1ec58aa4b31faeba6c6e5cc2e17c6ec21e7c96ed8fd35c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Ha...
yes
1
hangzhou-open-winner-m
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open?
76,834,321
76,834,321
a6af99187ea3fc11cb75237b246ada8c24813f44
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x64ca4f59f21632eb4e14009ce262a11eaaacc2f8b59804aa7d9fc27aa9d101d1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
chengdu-open-winner-m
Will Alexander Shevchenko win the 2025 Chengdu Open?
77,444,899
77,444,899
615ee0c5e8451627c4d1eb0b47632abdc50ce544
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xb9ec4394b00a43b7fecca64fd351f714ee6ee8bb241c2e04ecf89f0eeeb32cd4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
ballon-dor-winner-2025
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
77,444,905
77,444,905
f6f5e247e2ffa7df76969f21ea32b84f6808d2db
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x39beeb92632ed8d82f607e14c170f480b9a00e55fd86357cb3015528facb4c11
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
atp-paris-masters-singles-winner
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
78,418,700
78,418,700
4fb078273fa4c19a2936d6f7770f8bc96c6d4940
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xd93db0c46b0f49eeff1b77a24b46c3648bf28fef3d1655b3d09b1228b8a81c10
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
atp-paris-masters-singles-winner
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
78,453,213
78,453,213
c01a64b6e72fe629015eb356a7df77cdf9176461
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xbd093c49332eb45a96694e5e3ed3c36c99e48093d6044f3555ac224c2522fc37
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
atp-paris-masters-singles-winner
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
78,461,071
78,461,071
3bd2bfe57cab09cd8747ffae31c845935260692d
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x95afe438adfa53666a37aef395a0471e1e442965070a94d095507b31f3d5dc5d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
atp-paris-masters-singles-winner
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
78,467,599
78,467,599
11ec677018b7864af0ca0c8e36162b083217dbde
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x91a219ea6b0f0e09e2aa364d43773f7bb53c4a77f23e489c659a4b1bf282249b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
which-horse-will-win-the-breeders-cup-classic
Will Forever Young win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic?
78,485,870
78,485,870
8a72d43df5c977b9ed3bd3f3551e14c85abb89a0
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x594a8c6caba01551187625d3f20118e92523f244485b423b28306fb19a89b5d4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
atp-paris-masters-singles-winner
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
78,503,294
78,503,294
1f3ee227dfe5e75a89b5df597d6c351f1aa4b37f
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x4582d4dac7cf83f2aa34c2a9d3608d63c16f367a193d838f79a120cbcb615bbc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
new-york-city-marathon-winner-391
Will Abdi Nageeye win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon?
78,528,638
78,528,638
e7470a696d4bed6f97c731dad4ded39efb71a3d4
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xbe6ab500783e0086bdecbc56fb363e6701b687990e7221208f42cc91b8df20d7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
new-york-city-marathon-winner-391
Will Hillary Bor win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon?
78,528,638
78,528,638
7b53e73326f40e726df17397edd600ecfb6b19e8
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xf263f96c1a072b419b1db5a355cf45b47fb80ea9e8aec2f237a44ad2aa9d6ded
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
new-york-city-marathon-winner-391
Will Benson Kipruto win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon?
78,528,638
78,528,638
606f27411db3d2a718ac6b1dacd9161d4e9a0e88
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xf83c42756b8ff2e8c80718fa8a345b5d580f54e59e397495456e9acbba74ec4c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
0.428571
new-york-city-marathon-winner-391
Will Alexander Mutiso win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon?
78,528,638
78,528,638
1a73cfd371e9f16a849337d3fe05e0e2c94c2d2f
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x411ed50e3ea1fee7d6f364d24458ac4888c0f65396c669fc344c81f954ec3045
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?
78,570,202
78,570,202
6b68cf77ee812202baa800dae43368e526b8ad50
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x53f700543c30342937312bd69176b0ab5be0172f15b7419989791a93f79f5c40
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?
78,570,202
78,570,202
2be2bd688b1bf3851397e4439a57a2451d4a2e92
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x349f0023914fb1464f47db15e91b9641ec4d354afe4d289526b54c0de3a8a69b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
how-many-jobs-added-in-september-522
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?
78,728,992
78,728,992
f77c72925ec4ac55cc934d22743746227313e913
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x6b6c2a25b03112d68fe23658cda9370f3f892230573dbf2008b8a481aa4e7688
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-696
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)
78,899,597
78,899,597
6d695290686944e6a4520ebf0e8a303e36c6a17f
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x357a07f7072f872d9ed0cddc6a8d5fe4026b1cf265d3b14536913274c662c852
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-891
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)
79,201,450
79,201,450
7517c9f838e3007b826b0ea0fdaa1e4c48be31a3
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x5593eef656440aa96516da0473f9b1a790b12c8aabc7043b816e69be6f94ccf3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-891
Will “The Beast in Me” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)
79,202,085
79,202,085
0be51047f9d769c73fb5952b6fcdd3f2b9950770
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xa381f754f3eec89f409ea8c2b31c6c7485cd3ab11fd79edeb20e7b7cc416dea1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-436
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 18 2025)
79,202,085
79,202,085
4e5f9a0ca74670d2337e3fd1e924c0b28705fc21
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
79,231,786
79,231,786
04f6745ae6b21f103a663c6378033a2fdddc04f4
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x38eb0be53aeecf5be906e2a14f209e0699141793aa62969c7e35a85e5e901238
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
meta-week-november-21-2025
Will Meta (META) close at $650-$660 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
79,347,925
79,347,925
36efce43c0b51662fbfcf97a1a83b8a5090d7ae6
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x5d478443b4e530f412114a6ebf964c93c3d8ad0989e6b8ef67682a6502f179b8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
pltr-week-november-21-2025
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$184 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
79,347,925
79,347,925
7805ea630da8ade7de2b08e5c97ee8eee9549208
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x8f230a4ae046528cb534696e06219cd40496b4ccdc4c4f005b1d01439222e9ef
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
meta-week-november-21-2025
Will Meta (META) close at $640-$650 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
79,347,925
79,347,925
6c63bf65e50306b5ed79f6a7e5b56fb0f3f56fc1
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xbd4c74bf12c98830c42a75de24d662ea310ec57b5b839bcf8c4b66eccc574b27
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
googl-week-november-21-2025
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$315 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
79,347,925
79,347,925
981f59dbdded151db8be06b66fbfdbdbdd0aebc0
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xd998bcf4a4a9e4f992dc63c6d01f0748f5c0394d6c434e29b72b667b17fe8609
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?
79,392,642
79,392,642
98d51ec8c22fb36e8976f80b12e4adcd96ac71d6
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x7142b86a392eb15018fd77576db24ffaeae6b0be9cdd54a863a09a9b7c331b97
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 23?
79,436,092
79,436,092
a35950f14d32a874adc2f5ae0f06832e6d7a18e9
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x8386889743e316fdd3c874adba2a5aac382bc2e9d1d572f3719e4283391ff758
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 23?
79,436,092
79,436,092
7b338b2c5ba573e091b993e9524dd9e0209d15cc
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x30770cc6d6d22d58ebb64e86da475a6245d36838ab7908c6f9b00a29b61d10b4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-24
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 24?
79,477,902
79,477,902
8a49675ca77cf4a1a2b6c4aec2bb8a01b252c8c5
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x8ad421e89312a2d10c84ccbf6d4b8e265f56722ddb426cd025075e91c1c9dbaa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? | Event: israel-strike-on-yemen-on | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? | Event: hangzhou-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alexander Shevchenko win the 2025 Che...
no
0.923077
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-24
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 24?
79,477,902
79,477,902
e612d878cf1acc2be5c629e4649ba9f0848a330a
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xf70588303e5b42f90f9099526854903d005eb78ea2e267746b24e79c93da4250
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Hangzhou Open? | Event: hangzhou-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alexander Shevchenko win the 2025 Chengdu Open? | Event: chengdu-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-24
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 24?
79,477,902
79,477,902
133d16a974bcf98a068cdd0297f0a57d0bf0c9a9
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x75c6d950feaccfbf88023cc473076bcb1c3decc3427d4073479b98510554cd0f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Shevchenko win the 2025 Chengdu Open? | Event: chengdu-open-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Rolex Pari...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-24
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 24?
79,481,812
79,481,812
89b81f2cdd8f955f288fb8d6eb6f71ff29d707db
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x8daa8e3a0d6ad3a9e8d61add24d93f7ffcd3c61bc2842fc95d7417b80ca576d5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Dan...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-24
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?
79,481,812
79,481,812
51ab718b9e2b4a343d766bf722d6d17cc55e32b0
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x96a19b471abe54716c4e15ec47d47c48472722f032a3235120a814b5a1275d05
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice...
no
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361
Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)
79,503,634
79,503,634
fba7b0bea8b88218d07d2dff3e411b471e99c9fb
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xabe70326b1b2a22523adff245876fcad6388ba8ce6c7f906420de801d8f2635c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choi...
no
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361
Will "In Your Dreams" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)
79,504,019
79,504,019
228780a522b4aa4746ac7e43f0e76ed43fc80bd5
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xb16f83a1df29cecbb2627045cd59b712fc94f1358ae6c4d5de22ae6048fcf0b4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Cho...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361
Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)
79,504,019
79,504,019
9ec07c58e63de03954c79f29066558af3fb3ef47
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xb67d909c586f6789a54ce787f1507aa01b1a72ee1b18dcf5ba4a9e3d91f54c0a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Forever Young win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic? | Event: which-horse-will-win-the-breeders-cup-classic | Choice: yes | C...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-845
Will "The Beast in Me" be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 25 2025)
79,504,019
79,504,019
2345f47f075f9118fb2b0c155288ff9bfcb14e4f
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x0c9bb7540a0e854bc59e4480e0f586dc8d830e07bf0083358173df878e3eef5d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Forever Young win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic? | Event: which-horse-will-win-the-breeders-cup-classic | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: n...
yes
1
which-turkey-will-trump-pardon-874
Will Trump pardon Gobble?
79,517,735
79,517,735
e9911d36d0278b1db25834f1af0b05236fa34e15
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x426af12f99b7fdbb0ee379a51c706b2173fc9c05ec079b5a6ccab59205072649
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Abdi Nageeye win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: no | Con...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?
79,521,207
79,521,207
5868b54660a8b34ec23e125eb7233435d4956c6d
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x839f82e38ca878a4daced87f1b4de28e9e473084afd434c5a0db0c1c01b76efc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Abdi Nageeye win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Hillary Bor win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 26?
79,534,520
79,534,520
6f4ca150d415eaecacaf1788327b8690c6e33d5e
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x58aa846073045331030fed607570e7541c14871f8bc36a4714c7ce7dcca8b410
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Hillary Bor win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Benson Kipruto win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Quest...
no
1
amzn-week-november-28-2025
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28?
79,651,461
79,651,461
2c8bb7467e6a55a1702ccea910c119d9459d6b23
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0xadec1845123cd22265f7f854d837482cc2ef35c2407709aa5b7f7682d40ace10
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Benson Kipruto win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Alexander Mutiso win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4285...
yes
1
aapl-week-november-28-2025
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28?
79,651,461
79,651,461
58a27ab1fad7b0e5cab6e2cb4a525eee164c2625
0x211e247d8e7f68b78fdace32249ac16c8fd335dd
0x438cb13ccb8835b6ee2b66104de4bdcc25e44b2dc66c8158fde4dd5310bd1999
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Mutiso win the 2025 Men's New York City Marathon? | Event: new-york-city-marathon-winner-391 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.42857142857142855 2. Question: Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: yes | Confide...
yes
1
msft-week-november-28-2025
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $490-$500 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28?
79,651,465
79,651,465
5bcee16f2f36f6b54ef3893b170b6a7cf9ae4879
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xcbcff351b3995e490dbc43682731c18e0ba25d914d83814d6661ec2409fe846d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
up
1
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET
73,375,660
73,375,757
3dca3b4650fb205bb5a60216b17f49496028f50b
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x848b783101c2ac052c903399b762de6ed69306b98a0539dbffc421c22ca60620
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET
73,375,665
73,378,270
c49c491272961054c8dd109055ef65e6dd5a788e
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x8b828570a0cb977ed887fd3ce9463c369eef696dc80e22c118c5dc8edd2e6fba
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 2...
up
1
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET
73,375,669
73,375,765
43e22b9684b39a83e5564fcba2ca490436263db4
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0a8a09d17a349418d3e4d0ae69af613132280945b8169e1dab95d9736014f472
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET
73,375,672
73,375,769
9fe29d3a5a5b0f0c767477c8c282a3c2e04bd140
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3841ca25b37fed1a66b3b0bb61b1173079bfb75751ffaefe4b9cb23a6fe787e7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.092496
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET
73,376,581
73,377,741
48bee8ee2ab67ac683dcd67768b79ae73c853a33
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x635243b1724c9f6b6c4841cfc1c2abe3ecba26c764ba98c3c4ce86e8830fa655
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-3pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET
73,376,870
73,379,723
6ef6e25f9b0d1a6dcfe045623ea80b7e6d0df8ad
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x12a5b697664be39e1ae2866cca7683edb4a577c99539b19dd825ffa1dfb8558c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.506213
solana-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET
73,379,727
73,379,727
015475857c0b0fedccd2ac7fbbc8caa5513bfed2
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x17f3880b83b625c5026282235ae18bf8cf09791efaedb5140f15737bf1f36294
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET
73,379,729
73,383,931
4335ef39e60a51934b2a8af2b2be776790e8d4c0
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xdbca33aec0c9827c705cff3925e4fd29082e3d76d92ea517c1d3952255bd209c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET
73,379,733
73,383,938
b40da8b687ef2dd7f9fb4765d759a16bf3421f13
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xea126dda8ccf7e926f3fbd7b49d12cdf48199d1a714309b91a06ba0d4414bd62
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.649313
solana-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
73,380,305
73,380,305
f28bac2def8313df385e41eafc97192aa5792b8d
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7864c9f569023a5261b54cbca3a8108e5bc695c09a3184f4c876c222711b19fd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.340861
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
73,380,309
73,381,734
6860b41966ba86795d4286b98f8f1acd60ef8be7
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x0c5433a37dc3910f5c303a13df6c4294bcd256189ed252583c00d5b30ee16481
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.588659
xrp-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
73,380,313
73,380,313
8204e530a50e72d3768d3977918f65bf044abd38
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x95356005eed3a769659df3807c46553985fdb3fff7bef3e1da1560cfdc3c30ae
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.676946
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-5pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
73,380,317
73,381,738
6ed58eb4d8cb76970135c1955f394d71836238d4
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xfe2aa4bb9373409faf98aef7c7e5e10f1933ffe709e86777659715fee9796d13
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.445024
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET
73,381,743
73,381,743
862adf7b0aaa637c6c0a41f82c4974b8138e8aea
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xf8df9337c593a102980b1bb1532e049fbd6c0805148b016decaad746d5e99a31
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.758826
xrp-up-or-down-june-29-6pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET
73,383,439
73,383,439
b159cee4e7f325f6bbe2e94aa9dc2bfe02cb6d24
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x96ed12b78ed48f9861016d47ec42a14343492604206bccbc5b977a346f01241c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.537268
solana-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET
73,383,441
73,383,736
076bd1933b83c8ca60fbef90d20c2a529803c3fe
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xe4e66c8961f2a4e67cdb7d97fd97c744400268db671fba3a378c6585f0693c2e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET
73,383,444
73,389,315
31741d82cd841a5ab8c19a03b3247a386fb781af
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x19d65fbb30a07b92cb32d1483305eb43d386cad9c97c79765ccf2252c6efdc72
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.697353
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-7pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET
73,383,448
73,384,317
9fca7624861347d40658e2137e8e24e3191f3182
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xa8e7943cf495390a8cb8611ceb75b052c6792e1a36462ed394b85d6dcfda68ad
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.562113
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET
73,384,891
73,388,303
5ae41903a6aaa57d348ac8617dc77629975663d5
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x685159bfe7faf4d7c8940f0f88f4bbf9e5525fd7464871def01f29257fb987f9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.072437
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET
73,384,894
73,388,295
1002ff75cffa9bb000ef7c292a891cd5b87f9510
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x7b2155e518b528ed16ae5112a5d78993bfec40f33fe15e9026beca3721e8708c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-29-8pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET
73,388,306
73,390,166
915d51246b9addc4f4732783662797cebcda38dd
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x29fed3ffecff29396e16f1f0ea43120dcc730632a25ee66e0cbda3758257aeb6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET
73,388,310
73,391,835
70f53b859a04b3dfa87839093ddf65d6efcbfeb3
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xb46f2516076b4947ef04a9677abc2a9cb6b710c1d5f7f666710f85be924ad6f8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.478096
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9pm-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET
73,388,313
73,388,313
88af3d068ce8508835c85e149c6aa5e4b2166e88
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xa0934c636c8cfde62c5473e115c8b86122afebcbdbce01f403c7a171fe88d23c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET
73,388,317
73,393,494
be037e9da322ed41e6573683010a435848510cf7
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x21ce63b17d4edb40fb3a66c4e8fed92be979c041b08b8983c4c8b524a8fce8f1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
xrp-up-or-down-june-29-10pm-et
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10PM ET
73,388,320
73,393,491
16953904d9c7d155adebfa76315640b89fab2f72
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0xcbcf7938c6f41175acaa90c87d994d189c15443fdd3f3c3b2927fe988fb816dd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.150399
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET
73,401,485
73,401,485
4df4cde8558d57a31d51dafcc43fea6d2634be18
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x5a0094cdd3f07738d2cdc70eb97e8174395379a141795602cc446e1b71534e89
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.471777
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET
73,401,488
73,401,488
1f38b59a585a36d11e885388c5eef3f6215f689a
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x748a695c2c518c04d807aa81aa89054e9ed731c3df675c25960cf1edbafe8ed2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0.753506
solana-up-or-down-june-30-3am-et
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 3AM ET
73,401,492
73,401,492
6acea60aca07c3eeeb52c1177465380ab27a1219
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x405d77551e06b00b63366fe1589123f57338c1de29c42e1988993c7f5215491c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.904236
solana-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET
73,401,496
73,401,496
fcf15254d2840a33cbfd809aaff89de219fe6f4d
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x1bc197ae96a03c628a59bbd6ed7a44886b371bb77f0107a2b35c18787c6afd25
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
up
0.211782
xrp-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et
XRP Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET
73,401,499
73,401,499
8c33f1ff7e83f6889b9cacb0f3506166bc90368c
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3a9b0aed2929e86caf8017eee75da996400a22f8d3fb0fe8cacd36f807ac7927
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | E...
down
0
bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-4am-et
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4AM ET
73,401,502
73,403,953
673bf9df385e3685a13a9d8e96f9e3e3955d27ca
0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2
0x3d8868f128a7c1c0de59da434006d60c9f95e35fb6d667256565691c1cbe9cb8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Ev...
up
0.314446
ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-5am-et
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 5AM ET
73,401,505
73,401,505