sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e1beeaedd68cf98820b526471c6222aa148d0c0a | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xff6d22ca7a34494a88855a16421511c748ab5ccf1f04dbbe4395e5e71e6d2328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Event: federal-spending-elon-and-doge-cut-in-first-6-months | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? | Event: how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 0.768785 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Mexico" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
dda870d3d4d967c1ce665522fbe9d79fe6ae8d46 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x22417fc06ed67e2a702263979cf7c9181d69454801bd3fc6f34a6071c37cd6af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? | Event: how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.5865407406615935e-05
2. Question: Pepe ETF in 2025? | Event: pepe-etf-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9038895493065708
3. Question: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in ... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-higher-options | Will Trump issue less than 100 executive orders in first week? | 67,271,498 | 67,271,498 |
6455a5fb1ab296c0d6dea174dd64845bcdc90a84 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb9064450cd512c4ea072ef54142ad61098daeec4cd1dda3b6d1a62ac53ad9d08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pepe ETF in 2025? | Event: pepe-etf-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9038895493065708
2. Question: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janu... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week | Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week? | 67,271,498 | 67,271,498 |
a57d09ba9ed4d186147cd29206d2ebb971820bb9 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x15238941cee2b8d336a53dd1a6817aefcadfe62a63907391ae6617d1bd269081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9827130770171114
3. Questio... | no | 1 | what-will-powell-say-during-january-press-conference | Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference? | 67,309,012 | 67,309,012 |
06172c0fa9ee22825cbb6b45c0debfa23d96c66f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9827130770171114
2. Question: Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? | Event: will-palisades-fire-spread-to-santa-monica-by-sunday... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,309,012 | 67,309,012 |
5aa6a790271476050b78347689e79c48838c1339 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x4e7f7a5a65236699bda705189b4c536670d6a14821a546477b9e8b08a5a25e3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? | Event: will-palisades-fire-spread-to-santa-monica-by-sunday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? | Event: will-palisades-fire-spread-to-malibu-by-sunday | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | what-will-powell-say-during-january-press-conference | Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference? | 67,309,012 | 67,309,012 |
4644b85e49293db39324bd2c373e12e551388d2e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x8a0c74eae24c6648f7f76ac44241f13f7876dbd5926b0e512e6f4af5b3a9da1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? | Event: will-palisades-fire-spread-to-malibu-by-sunday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.739584214448852e-06
2. Question: Yoon arrested by Friday? | Event: yoon-arrested-by-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Biden say ... | no | 1 | what-will-powell-say-during-january-press-conference | Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference? | 67,309,012 | 67,309,012 |
74be779b99c4d8cb4c75ad6ee9d8c9fbfbf521b4 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xf48f79d8e60ab1efa76e53bec8c005611bfdc097cc0e51dc2f612709c04f5acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Yoon arrested by Friday? | Event: yoon-arrested-by-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Biden say "peaceful transition" during farewell address? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: SpaceX 7th Starship upper s... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,309,012 | 67,309,012 |
e7eea8780e90a5dd700daaf597559df111c4287c | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x66a86bed2460bb982e1a9a22d111b08bea41349423ef9e8669570e488cf96de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden say "peaceful transition" during farewell address? | Event: what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down? | Event: spacex-flight-test-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.000003 | will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | 67,380,760 | 67,380,760 |
9361c27fffc11614baa3e106a68c473697c0e6a2 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x920d55e034e8591e9bcc5d1e5c8fd250283f5d2d2eed4fe138afa50c449781b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down? | Event: spacex-flight-test-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: TikTok removed from App Store in January? |... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,388,890 | 67,388,890 |
001dda1a5e822c0b40f302bc16469a7eb9823855 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x92ebb98c37641b8f37ba7d8f86eca57b026ea5f050b9216be12ddacfd7e34537 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: TikTok removed from App Store in January? | Event: tiktok-removed-from-app-store-in-january | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: TikTok banned in 2025? | Event: tikto... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-state-of-the-union | Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Union? | 67,390,685 | 68,738,169 |
898cdc17d82a43729f1623430bc7c874e6b60f28 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xf35e0d396dd4c480166b16515c52adb2e6379d019d6787321853af729ac5aa09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend?
Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.090243 | will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | 45,357,923 | 45,485,309 |
625c570b222e2399acac57fedb0632a24eaf4327 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x85ff775c166917f8b9792303c5343d1b269c8f8f44c19773a992ea227fd37753 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
Target market:
Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend?
Event: will-barbie-gross-over-... | no | 0.230877 | will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-opening-weekend | Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | 45,475,964 | 45,475,964 |
75ae33379e2c39f1994ad0613f80ab0aa79a04ce | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x4ded19b1b1b6da33bd91377792cdde3c7944e5c0b245ba4eef3c03a0dc98d5e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | will-oppenheimer-gross-over-50m-on-its-second-weekend | Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $50m on its second weekend? | 45,601,035 | 45,673,038 |
62b83545e84115b7979e4ba7dd28e3c57728e993 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x1026953bfca1d97de48d893c6c391039aae8e1ae34ecdb930817a8dc9d1ee04b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | will-barbie-gross-over-90m-on-its-second-weekend | Will 'Barbie' gross over $90m on its second weekend? | 45,605,163 | 45,686,002 |
8cd4a2caa149b5a7eeb640e9b1ba31ce043b0a6b | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x1291b36f3f8424ecd0bdb9a705bfe40fdd40df400a31c790b2f513c5c4aa88f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | diaz | 0 | jake-paul-vs-nate-diaz | Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz | 45,965,794 | 46,031,073 |
93fad8e8c8fbe5aaede60c78c0c85a0402064b4e | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xaa9a17b006c7ea6b9fcda90f5310e40e133d086b3e59ab41b09c062374f8f8ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | box-office-august-11-13 | Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $20m over August 11-13? | 46,164,666 | 46,353,072 |
fd2987ea2a2f0d3f995f728e6a74638b7f05dbd2 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x3345899c2049b0820ac501288cbcd3e41e9b2be9dc8cd6c12905969b9dc126b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 0.000055 | will-nasa-record-2023-as-the-hottest-year-on-record | Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) | 46,360,147 | 46,604,635 |
5b8fbbc04bba8d90e211df4cd58a31e042f4716c | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x637040cad4a4bd56abb98a357ea932a1efd695a55b24a21ea7c044693522ba29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0.333333 | will-the-lahaina-fire-in-maui-be-fully-contained-this-week | Will the Lahaina fire in Maui be fully contained this week? | 46,552,912 | 46,552,912 |
fad7bdf1033a16461ce0055dba427da09590dabc | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xc6919b783ca41ffc70913022be94855c810d10614ca23b8511b6c9fa87fb9152 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | guatemala-presidential-election-who-will-win | Guatemala Presidential Election: Will Sandra Torres win? | 46,635,304 | 46,635,304 |
12dbab68fb8c7891c4d9d69c69574af95a2bc37a | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x3a4645ffe942a02b7711fab5983d501ec4f82005ac22b5de67cc25673678a1df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | will-doj-charge-binance-by-sep-30 | Will DOJ charge Binance by Sep 30? | 47,441,176 | 47,441,176 |
ded7e3a14affe56663ab1599049e73e4e8e16ca6 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x2378951c1797e85658ab0d2460305a258ee3c802e549fd55653b190dd1d36782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 47,519,286 | 47,519,286 |
a0f8deb7e9156d87ce6393331fe6c16cc962ebc9 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x296dee9af41489382d3870cbeed17487bca3802053d797dd02e9c11dea65c80d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | 2023-global-heat-increase | Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? | 47,723,486 | 47,723,486 |
728a4238a3b67ec6c819f323c0a60ebd0dcd58ce | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x54f44556c2ac959845dbdc9b5759a02ddad771661af63f73fb8053ef1c63638d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | 48,102,874 | 48,102,874 |
42ce212160eeccff0a06413d60978b94c8731a4e | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x50b5f1322e2e63af93bcb99284aa4c15b17175a5062009332681e565e4c6a2bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0.134275 | taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | 48,807,457 | 48,807,457 |
8d448f57bc995e58fc3c5f9b92767b5b78d38cf6 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x41a09bfef86f1126b57d05692f11cae07716c5e28b88e7aa6d4fc640e2ed769b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | 49,048,066 | 50,251,010 |
fe1693bee655f89c2298f9d5e209a5f031ed5df7 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xec1cfd6994ed8d8992bc7044d502cc8005d77674fc824d85f1cb29d966285679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-nov-1 | Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? | 49,418,743 | 49,590,268 |
e1d81f7f3b8eb4efa052226dafb45f0577b4e47f | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x9f48a05fb3f34c80866fc41729ec0b085dba86c944df2b0400b925c31e56e233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,713,845 | 52,713,845 |
d11c390f4bd1170d85fc45c09469e4b7f4f59cf7 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xe91b26e02e0a35d164b243a1b1a70d5886441084e9da1f3f664f052730030cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 53,449,161 | 53,449,161 |
268ea424bec3c78af7f8bad596abc61179b8b594 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x6dc62aae80021ba858890ede1ce0a83bb1e870eedfb32f0f924bd33317a37969 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | more-migrant-encounters-at-border-in-february-compared-to-january | More migrant encounters at border in February compared to January? | 53,876,497 | 53,876,497 |
971fa922946351072b7a6a954c8334fc66bb717b | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x03b7010e69ff09a3371f53c7b2fe944182660fc9ac1497518784c650c0801b94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 1 | trump-sc-speech-what-will-he-say-most | Will Trump mention Border the most in South Carolina speech? | 54,312,332 | 54,312,332 |
008c65ebf9563b00eda57fed34c68ffe5042382b | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x4d293ab1b2f7b68c0eb7106e827f9210e54ebf007de7b15c6216ebc0eb95de42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | 54,312,332 | 54,312,332 |
785f8b7ceeb876156679ff822128f794e5d70224 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x2abe4425ea1f958574f8c2ddfa42ab89547c5577e55323f14f4e36e01e0b7d12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 0.837372 | senegal-presidential-election-winner | Senegal Presidential Election: Bassirou Diomaye Faye wins? | 55,150,017 | 55,180,593 |
3104d15949c4692e0123ca8ab856bbf41fb88147 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x578658f07e541640c9eebb4fdc61c2a19ba0c031ba5133c4cddd13a1cd41c57c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $50m-57.5m opening weekend? | 55,412,175 | 55,412,175 |
a8c626d50922f9c331895eb0b060039e77f9a3a1 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x7b40c4dbee8d91daad898ae9921df0bd6384e826f89694ac49baf3b0d386ab61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 1 | godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross more than $65m opening weekend? | 55,412,175 | 55,412,175 |
eed56af65d3540ade7522db3c6da04e2c074260d | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x2f9028fa6ff25a0abfd07b420714142a1b403f74e87753447629e821d761e50c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | 55,709,141 | 55,709,141 |
6f95fa688231091162b623e2c4fcd8d6d5619564 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x77d4493757464b3bdc1c7ae624a5e3070abb2419c01c266b1bbeb1854df7967d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | yes | 1 | south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Will the DPK win the most seats in the South Korean election? | 55,709,141 | 55,709,141 |
f36140a13ab42cd3dd20b2915572d2159acd7578 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xb03b86475a958a8b062b251a319d410c855b0b783017525f816fc16363c84439 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 0 | civil-war-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Civil War' gross more than $23m opening weekend? | 55,746,962 | 55,746,962 |
72bb4bb3d744f1facbba95f09e3b8c56b6d24fc6 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xfe79c5aa2cfaf9c1a2d84bbc57fcfd126a6e4dc7645322a092b0ac2f263677ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | when-will-port-of-baltimore-reopen | Will the Port of Baltimore reopen in April? | 56,371,500 | 56,371,500 |
7f529286d785a222f6e6894ee66beec6c7d243e0 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x36580ec03be4fd122f477c8e2d275c3c087dc209b45fdb6e12e317f384909307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | challengers-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Challengers' gross more than $22m opening weekend? | 57,189,645 | 57,189,645 |
e33bff64977372a013202c9119af9d364d263c9f | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xd6b789415f690f657b53e4dd42065023bbc1f230861d5f740bec09394cd8acb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | challengers-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Challengers' gross between $16m and $19m opening weekend? | 57,189,645 | 57,189,645 |
75f6b01d97dbeecf09574adead468441df69f78f | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xde6bbaf490035aa3e6b1fcb5a1d241f04602721be3232c9209eb76411a50ef3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-2x-more-than-oppenheimer-on-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09024262926592982
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-ope... | no | 1 | when-will-port-of-baltimore-reopen | Will the Port of Baltimore reopen in May? | 57,189,645 | 57,189,645 |
cd0d734a8df4d0f9b7b06e1a657a7e3514837636 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x80e14125844dcb3dd3885290bc0a03626223a92b3a704ba10363d250e8640b86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-150m-on-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.23087707596503537
2. Question: Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $50m on its second weekend? | Event: will-oppenheimer-gross-over-50m-on-its-second-weekend | Cho... | yes | 1 | mexican-presidential-election-who-will-win | Mexican Presidential Election: Will Claudia Sheinbaum win? | 57,729,875 | 57,729,875 |
98d56d5e379e803972a7633e358a8969a24159d7 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x3777e6667d5bea7f111146760f62b356abd2978eb35384f6ba3a0973afc1b8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $50m on its second weekend? | Event: will-oppenheimer-gross-over-50m-on-its-second-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $90m on its second weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-90m-on-its-second-weekend | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win 300-325 seats? | 57,802,252 | 57,802,252 |
02552c10d3e85ede61c27e2f54da3e36c2baf456 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x179aa663b9f4860b1e6bb587ed874fc8f400e1d163aaf50fe7f8b8d072943cd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Barbie' gross over $90m on its second weekend? | Event: will-barbie-gross-over-90m-on-its-second-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz | Event: jake-paul-vs-nate-diaz | Choice: diaz | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $20m o... | no | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win less than 300 seats? | 57,802,267 | 57,802,267 |
a901edabcd61a407fa484429f1adfda6712c1a3e | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x0e32fd85a870d09ee702b15a21edb4492f24bf1b65aca3a2007a22d2ae081d56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz | Event: jake-paul-vs-nate-diaz | Choice: diaz | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $20m over August 11-13? | Event: box-office-august-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C... | yes | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win more than 400 seats? | 57,802,640 | 57,802,640 |
19ef0ec41cbde5ba09d57dd444714cc3bf640835 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x426f9a026f65b0c35e563fc5ba313f5e89e9327354dd1467feb269e24125e87a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Oppenheimer' gross over $20m over August 11-13? | Event: box-office-august-11-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) | Event: will-nasa-record-2023-as-the-hottest-year-on-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5... | no | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win 326-350 seats? | 57,802,640 | 57,802,640 |
b18440d8918c00a3cb284aa477e4919154210361 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x4c5751480bedaf4e876e16ea32fe406858a9a27271fcf754e8091891c1a279b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher) | Event: will-nasa-record-2023-as-the-hottest-year-on-record | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.4942136931842936e-05
2. Question: Will the Lahaina fire in Maui be fully contained this week? | Event: will-the-lahaina-fire-in-ma... | no | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win 351-375 seats? | 57,802,640 | 57,802,640 |
61d97b422a4b32d7b31e1c35d4928648ab287e99 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x9a79c81669825f87197b2f6582ac0fd70f1d92a70d6c460c708a468e33be6192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Lahaina fire in Maui be fully contained this week? | Event: will-the-lahaina-fire-in-maui-be-fully-contained-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Guatemala Presidential Election: Will Sandra Torres win? | Event: guatemala-presidential-election-who-will... | yes | 1 | indian-election-how-many-seats-will-the-nda-win | Will the NDA win 376-400 seats? | 57,802,640 | 57,802,640 |
a6c3efab768982b6818c2297dbbffd14e9511202 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x6f9b2be44ad64a56ac05a99b89a95e2729bc9febe49aa44eeb8d806279d714bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Guatemala Presidential Election: Will Sandra Torres win? | Event: guatemala-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will DOJ charge Binance by Sep 30? | Event: will-doj-charge-binance-by-sep-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will there be 19... | yes | 1 | belgian-federal-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Will VB win the most seats in the Belgian federal elections? | 58,323,858 | 58,323,858 |
4f20c76900b926d64d61ea0e9a0200b14fec3385 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x078e249f83103b8767f8e45afbd3f12e4c9dc34b9ca6a0c870e866a08601d4b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DOJ charge Binance by Sep 30? | Event: will-doj-charge-binance-by-sep-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? | 58,881,552 | 58,881,552 |
225a3099a12337329e89f6417c98fa91fcdf84fc | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x72857b3b967e7cdf2e85258e88c7077ba22e6a3b0c1c30b6bd6fc7ee7b7b51a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Event: how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? | Event: 2023-global-heat-increase | Ch... | no | 0.000001 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,247,835 | 60,247,835 |
db972d43c8944ec395d9a3ae322c7e4ce88d9e3e | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x55094f77e9dbc107fc354a9b8a5939cd0b4d0cfae24c7f892dd778b565b579c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023? | Event: 2023-global-heat-increase | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | Event: will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have... | yes | 1 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,270,248 | 60,270,248 |
8af5531e1170efd6b2392d7f6954aa71627ac37d | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x653483009043f1663360bc35ed8fb542d3f9453916082d20ff025adaa2fe7032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SBF get Adderall in jail? | Event: will-sbf-get-adderall-in-jail | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.13427462625868763
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,270,248 | 60,270,248 |
a92b3aa08b422cb5e7f6a3885a79d39ef1229cfd | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x3c0425a6019a6c73fdf23894d3d7cec6041224c00380ac18bec3823710affe04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ have a bigger opening weekend than 'Barbie'? | Event: taylor-swift-eras-tour-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.13427462625868763
2. Question: Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Event: argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win... | yes | 1 | 400m-winner-w | Will Marileidy Paulino (DOM) win gold in 400m W? | 60,431,165 | 60,431,165 |
cd82fd8554efc6e51a1fe55e3c112ea63022d8fb | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xfa49aeebeb377a3d0da24a2a16cb2432979482e01e60f8e06ebcb0775e534a6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? | Event: argentina-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? | Event: will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-nov-1 | Choic... | yes | 1 | 3rd-most-medals-at-paris-olympics | Will France win the 3rd most medals? | 60,506,701 | 60,506,701 |
f06fd4624242a174c415f1629a394059fb96a34f | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xc742af29d04c88556ac2aa327d1dc644a08ace04d8dd4b92e05c83d4a1545368 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? | Event: will-egypt-open-its-border-for-palestinian-refugees-by-nov-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice... | no | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend? | 61,676,030 | 61,676,030 |
a457c1a8bbf543beeab1419dc5aff864f8b94270 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xda6b02132a4739dca455b489aee53df859da5c01809b216be2a026110223f71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | 61,676,030 | 61,676,030 |
abe02c813ef624a52a763d179feb7c04aa1ba4a4 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xe5a233c7358326318cea1f73e8dba6500abd556f65cce4e85d09afe07374dfe8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | Event: finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: More migrant encounters at border in February compared to January? | Event: more-migrant-encounters-at-border-in-february-compared-to-janua... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 62,733,298 | 62,733,298 |
43bf2eab049b3014822ba831bd2dc9ab5753de84 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x8559485d1f6670ab04fb68eb1c3bd9039139fd488bc48e07addc0d75fe189674 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: More migrant encounters at border in February compared to January? | Event: more-migrant-encounters-at-border-in-february-compared-to-january | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump mention Border the most in South Carolina speech? | Event: trump-sc-speech-what-will-he-say-most... | yes | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C? | 63,397,867 | 63,397,867 |
1929d9cf14d37ab6f7386fe3e05cd779e2c3de63 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump mention Border the most in South Carolina speech? | Event: trump-sc-speech-what-will-he-say-most | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 63,921,529 | 63,921,529 |
6f4a06a5c729ce58b9e40e2d79f5d826378d659a | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | Event: dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Senegal Presidential Election: Bassirou Diomaye Faye wins? | Event: senegal-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.83737193... | yes | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,921,529 | 63,921,529 |
1391456a94dc0112c073669858d9f309b4670416 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x4742343186280954a67cf912f7bc9d2dd0fe38121df58b5c9306ad4b17a5ef7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Senegal Presidential Election: Bassirou Diomaye Faye wins? | Event: senegal-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8373719323374398
2. Question: Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $50m-57.5m opening weekend? | Event: godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Choic... | yes | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader? | 63,921,529 | 63,921,529 |
d2d808af8ffa2e5b47816ae858fe949e099404c6 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x78234aafc88ab34b177109a5448cd90d7d1fd4efea1983d19fd67eee78ff0239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $50m-57.5m opening weekend? | Event: godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross more than $65m opening weekend? | Event: godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | 63,921,529 | 63,921,529 |
ea2f167ec13542f851f65a2730e81b46f4af2599 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0xb482f7d8d69170b4cfc60a2e0a1db75027f6b264898873fe8be51e408f28fbf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross more than $65m opening weekend? | Event: godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | Event: south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Choic... | yes | 1 | next-uk-leader-of-the-conservatives | Priti Patel next Conservative party leader? | 63,921,529 | 63,921,529 |
ac341829da2919c9898e850e18a8dc4767598a21 | 0x2158950563886cbf10dfe2d6cdc69b4bca30fe65 | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the PPP win the most seats in the South Korean election? | Event: south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the DPK win the most seats in the South Korean election? | Event: south-korea-election-which-party-wins-the-most-seats |... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,252 | 63,966,252 |
cefc87a19a7b79b3f21068f5f561aeb2cb97f154 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x2f572e07a10c8174e56bf09064a034ee5a441f3fba3750a9deb40c01c9a636a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23?
Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
0cf45990987750400de426526e7906731013bb13 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x5232b8ca33acb780f9e4713b98235c3dfb147bb3ab1ea4a8ba358aaffaaa96d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23?
Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
0a20722c6f52ac249ff623675ef97806a622cfdf | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x7813c945b4a28216cebd22f0e2c440d4f2c556d4d13d6bbb33bae16942a21e18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw?
Event: epl-ev... | no | 1 | epl-eve-bre-2024-11-23 | Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
c67d2f1f75b6e09c1f802087aba657530f4f994a | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xa86916b140698d83988f3cffa80f1b3c94dcb5d3e573281ab74d297dc63436eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
d65c837758133958fcee9a29c70f1c0f70576906 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xb9cdb8065bddc75c57418315df6521b5a39ac8876b50f44f0f7b17f530d3abbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
5d99595e13aca0e92e9c00544595c8406726ee65 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xd7f292d7de99cf94850ade6d0637ff1ec3e03d33cd9da166c16a33d2e4f762d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 64,678,366 | 64,678,366 |
ef8511b03c218a94e1bfc81db37a8568f853bd6a | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x3072fb54940562bc810662b8db3134faaa5427b7e80d603b50312bd284e8b4f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-24? | 64,794,097 | 64,794,097 |
31a6bf36b9786bb636d17174948d8aa05e7ccb12 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x3d7597f3ce9f213fcf5c08ac8c60bfbec7b6b19e3602be680057e658d44f8b96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-sou-liv-2024-11-24 | Will Southampton win on 2024-11-24? | 64,794,097 | 64,794,097 |
d0c94b4c846409a83a5a5a686ec7b013b5cdbe2b | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x21d142a7e2258a704052b3123fa397fea1d3b697dad09c060ba1c255978f35ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will West Ham win on 2024-11-30? | 65,162,046 | 65,162,046 |
1c56ec67aefc481639bfd864836e7a00bf8457e1 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x3c1acb696d59f24b9db5ab048b5bc7a3972569e3a6e3cbaeec1c57921e419fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-benfica | Will Monaco beat Benfica? | 65,162,046 | 65,162,046 |
1d4ba5b60357790be2fdb49eefce6fde6408984c | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x73ee1b44e17e27baeff30e9092fab3ac7bf3e2341715faf1abcfaa1406fdaa75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-billboard-1-pop-star-of-the-century | Will Beyonce be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? | 65,162,046 | 65,162,046 |
4aa35c243632ebcc0dbd1188d1a6d2601afe720f | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xf8c6c4704c68db1d81146b7214bc2e3e887630248e59b900ae75cf598c110ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | 65,554,585 | 65,554,585 |
77e484f73a952bcff6eb0b78b890a77fba3f887e | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xa4a32e83ad93195186cc5b22026d7dcc58a8e02c80fed19d8136b9e4b9a92c1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-16? | 65,629,489 | 65,629,489 |
a4e40e3cf216dda1c89aaadf6630495a8563e9b3 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x2548472c15f8256f1f336ae2087dc55f5bf47d04ea2c4822d1dd04c3a3c74de2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-22? | 65,829,497 | 65,829,497 |
7ec192a210589497568c4a620b886ecb9403f0ea | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xa864e4afdb255b89e1a0014295bf98be742674b9558cb74b14392392cacfd951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bou-2024-12-22 | Will Manchester United vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 65,829,497 | 65,829,497 |
65defab9cb624d533543fd777d6381c224052a62 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xe0f31ec11d47e9cc179e48b7e8c8265aa2c296e1e4fe5442e39fcc36436044e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | champions-chess-tour-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | 65,829,497 | 65,829,497 |
4e5a3b846230325b574a2d477c364f4d0373360b | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,829,497 | 65,829,497 |
c6516e1a998043287360f92e5d87855439127a77 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x88bb7db9b140476cfb392b8ec1ffa9dae79b99b6a033c70839f6ea9f6e65f81d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in | No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? | 66,329,681 | 66,329,681 |
e8e27464256b80dafe2a2c296f73a3632ab7f14e | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x912f772a0eb83626e3890a5fc0eed3fc835d70b705ad74bdc461cf61a6d8d80f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | world-dart-championship | Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | 66,329,681 | 66,329,681 |
7b4e8810df319396e61da0c9c4c78b8db05c10a8 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xbc15fb0d41203120dbad5b2db8ca515f2e3072c3dfb045562bbec2086703ae04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,329,681 | 66,329,681 |
28153f343d879a624c5d3b0bbf78fd287350e0ae | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x6517a0ecfc4eac4dfaff042e0529451f11e7dc241163e46e47912c701b956a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-flex-2024 | Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | 67,209,993 | 67,209,993 |
9ffa3c17e33d0132c04cc4d5110c94101ff430e3 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xaabe9f46dd7a00b86bf21bdda6b142e91d2a41b15ff9f8f7802579805ac693a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | afc-champion | Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? | 67,209,993 | 67,209,993 |
408851c1e41afec1cc0fdf2757b2e45fd036ea13 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x64c67fa2f835468413e777c4be9d78e77d202d6001a1cf08695a0f6a8918e9c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-rb-2024 | Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? | 67,209,995 | 67,209,995 |
91a246731f9e8fa2976ce511b6b161614a698852 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xd596e54d8df41c361327ff52493b702b064d46ecdce61119faae6efb6bb665ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | nfc-champion | Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? | 67,209,995 | 67,209,995 |
8715a47021f16e48905bef9253b0bec87b8704d6 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xeb52004d81a0458910b98afbab213f85e488d0046a2241ab5e70c7b3aa2dee23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,209,995 | 67,209,995 |
8541bef16e387eeb51f79936b35d7e6e5fcb4f6c | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x1329a399b6534cb77323e496fd2dc9e247f2a8946df86a03284581d87869018f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,646,020 | 67,646,020 |
4c85520577be4d22ea26a7c29e77d36f90325039 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x422a4048c5715063294544c82c22be3088ce68ceda239378967ad6134d7639d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year | Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | 67,646,020 | 67,646,020 |
cb452e07afb646489c4aa1ddb5fa1e73195d218d | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x7a78f02a99ad3d45e0ca027071601442cf2729d3c18223689e5aa4c3fda5dfbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | nfl-coach-of-the-year | Will Kevin O'Connell win NFL Coach of the Year? | 67,646,020 | 67,646,020 |
59431ec0c8d8aa558fcca5510b809eaa09bf095a | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,646,020 | 67,646,020 |
c522169d6981ac1e2e7bfdcf704c507235fe66fb | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x6837fb20ba39a81cf273970a3766a38306a6d819168a4a05a3c37128b4776e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 67,915,122 | 67,915,122 |
292b7c281e0cf93f9a31dd1a2ab2b07035b2cafd | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x868441dc24dea77e44c60ffdc315b40ac88531a0a439c0e7077cb9246cf108c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? | 67,915,122 | 67,915,122 |
cf6447bf8fb10c03f75b81079fe438b213d8a98e | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x972b04b4717c7b59b200fde884832def3172e0622a2bcddf79ddd48a4da1bf9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23... | no | 1 | epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? | 67,915,122 | 67,915,122 |
f822e4772ff56b81f28735070228f03458d077df | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x05b065c58eac964b8049156dbd7ec63bd97d2afbba410206af911f779672e492 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-bre-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 |... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | 70,569,319 | 70,569,319 |
61d7086594ea0a4630c1d21b0bcadc3d3f86ade8 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x3dd328003f309c77e05dd99130ff396fce3f97bcb721163b33bfae1f5877e389 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-... | yes | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Jorge Masvidal next? | 70,569,319 | 70,569,319 |
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