sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6a21e8146d36cd59907f8aeb669ee1771e4bbcc5 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xe56886e8a7b12cd1fadec611c7454fbcb93988c5e1e5a94ec3922463f86281cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.15395112268949263
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2030007145478821
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | up | 0.4476 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | 73,543,581 | 73,543,581 |
f5eef3bb546444182e25bf394b3762afce0edfc6 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x46156378c0d9b73a4fb43dcaccffd15128e52b218d82575e357a4c4e2d49927d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2030007145478821
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.13829995002289933
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - ... | up | 0.212468 | solana-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | 73,544,443 | 73,544,731 |
86ed73d7e69859aa3439313520f62529f4bbce78 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x2b2e7ecf240e9a4ecb9d42a882a5d444f26313717d7dfab4a84c418d2045bda1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.13829995002289933
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.025367083169119134
3. Question: XRP Up o... | up | 0.457944 | xrp-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | 73,544,445 | 73,544,733 |
9cde2b537359a93280f9fef237edd5cbe900b3e8 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xe729237b82025632b556784e4d16c9da179b1bb39a442c5e1a46732b6dbbfe8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.025367083169119134
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.41395724340194756
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | up | 0.075918 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | 73,544,446 | 73,545,024 |
49e5dd286360bd50f618fa50ae20b49e6ccf9841 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x223fc332786ffed594e176e6efea974d5acd8440a957b68a590bd32a4926a904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.41395724340194756
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ... | up | 0.423798 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | 73,545,022 | 73,545,022 |
a9cac72932a30bf18d6082c5e78821753ed81882 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x28a9f665eb8ec9056da0849892b0d9d9b4f7fcc47d3b8fd64456b8928260fc72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6908772879563668
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3... | down | 0.129032 | solana-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | 73,546,728 | 73,546,728 |
32bdca0e5a747096748ac5ac7ef06b7e192ce925 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x2cb2d711c5dfe01ed47e0099a5701b4fd6ff53826d2566412425591cf9863d17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.6908772879563668
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2806207004862969
3. Question: Solana Up or ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | 73,546,730 | 73,551,804 |
b1b875370441b848d93188c5880015bff2ee484d | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x10fe951ff412aca6c72ae11315d26b3eb996e46af005d35a0611578f7bb73a9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2806207004862969
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.33059093500704445
3. Question: XRP Up or Down... | down | 0.260369 | xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | 73,546,732 | 73,546,732 |
b4d22bf91602593c94f6c14dbe45a87beae9f7b6 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x855c695d7c794b736655f9d18c48856d82464f956c37df7938f4c65c3d246475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.33059093500704445
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | E... | up | 0.637819 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | 73,546,734 | 73,546,734 |
669140910998f92b8898a75f8301ba117a5a8e04 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x74cab9d244a18eba7e7ba696ef5d25fb3b17b563e18eae4810db1f9e4f37926b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.40476737333748736
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | ... | down | 0.069769 | solana-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | 73,548,145 | 73,549,291 |
4ae8b783670e0735484d7f62c9f1b6dde9452592 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x5f42eb77d9951fc9047ee3a6529757a80cfbbfd9f0f26c9267fb63df9316fcd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.40476737333748736
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 2... | down | 0.246703 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | 73,548,148 | 73,549,293 |
2cc9452116d467cbfe83480736a9e08399a0271b | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x8270eac55ae39b84df7972da6751dc467d41108c543d87906f3ce5ab2075ddad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-... | up | 0.038799 | xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | 73,548,153 | 73,549,294 |
763697dd4557ecfd8de6b21dc1ec5c4e4cc429b5 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xf82b7bd3711244cfe1c1dbe9861a42b4271df5532be879d5d768c9472949967e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.15134089321223196
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET... | down | 0.010591 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | 73,548,440 | 73,549,584 |
f2356275ad1aa12a5647975ea5fcc54a55a99deb | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x1dfe0c0b18f19414aa8fc0b40baa6e3948f70cf5081a276a51203ac887ce685b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.15134089321223196
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | 73,549,586 | 73,554,911 |
b8cc92fb820c92683714edc176a5e0dcb404c571 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x41b2b2d36b5254dbd64ba991492d71f1de212987665e54699d57da0f93c5615e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5658071401521672
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, ... | up | 0.039769 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | 73,549,590 | 73,550,463 |
035cd7c136063ee8890a9f5ef2992e999c9b29e2 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xc5c59f710fdf99a51cff4a2e3810c0024aee7ffa9309547ac12ce6ff0b2c3afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5658071401521672
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.45962282360444995
3. Question: XRP Up or Down... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | 73,549,593 | 73,554,912 |
806b110e1e29b58be144784f8a500246a0e86f49 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x6f33333456ade6e1eb2f4c9eec465d640a337b5a0639ddd5ec8a76a9163ac11d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.45962282360444995
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5081291045971488
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | 73,549,595 | 73,554,909 |
781282f74772be5ea051f5221b118bcc9fc54d75 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x78a2e0af36d85f926097fae5cb60299cf1cf25211cb2c98176fe7d67c6f834af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.5081291045971488
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5360045283629159
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July ... | down | 0.03032 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | 73,551,597 | 73,553,304 |
f91e2a85305c9b5526120f8f88469b342603a37f | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x5ecb13ef3e8c61ae520c896246cbb4e0599b0e0605266098011e0c52578330f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.5360045283629159
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8566463151457545
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0.076066 | solana-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | 73,551,599 | 73,553,300 |
dd12ab9c12fd99829fa1381ed2bfec4302a2f823 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x7b8c4240fd21224a32d2b6eff047a4164cf82e9623948a62a1b8e5324c65192e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.8566463151457545
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9264736147321507
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0.140041 | xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | 73,551,600 | 73,553,306 |
a63736cb7dcf408b0c4ecca1c7be76baffe6bdc9 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xf47cd3a6662f3b76f378eb269844195da91b4ce7fe13892da69df3359f10ba6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9264736147321507
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 4PM... | down | 0.02477 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | 73,551,603 | 73,553,302 |
39a4ef90704abeabed3e2235ca83b4ef0674069f | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x514eb1762eac34d8b97bc4dc8157a34d9cecb726bb26603516f6b4bc2990ae43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9665382930256448
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | E... | up | 0.017941 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | 73,553,308 | 73,553,599 |
bfdffda8156254f499a61f54a246523475da3044 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x6381fa4035cfe6634768f5ec52d0d0ba6efe28dd86c0acb018f0afc052e1b114 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.9665382930256448
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | E... | up | 0.113772 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | 73,553,310 | 73,553,600 |
8efdb50814b869824ac468e29808c1d88af0c27f | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x13a119528e3e57d17731efa2c3eedfc8d91a8a014e9c96a27e3ce9cf6169f1ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2447663459503782
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET ... | up | 0.135804 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | 73,553,312 | 73,554,735 |
a512eecfb0b043d008a616bb57aa9e6c9caa953f | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x9143f0face72a8c1eaab9489fc1f8e8dfab9c8495eb102d08fb257805009f034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2447663459503782
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07263436444931107
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Jul... | down | 0.00319 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | 73,554,736 | 73,555,309 |
bdd314c8ad7334d966d2f05542145bb72bfa2762 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x0a1324e621af3eb66ce1c5de312837b1f9a9c3f3695b3e52034874f725bfc5ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07263436444931107
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2884269010906175
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | 73,554,738 | 73,559,794 |
512997b1ab9bcf2499383a3d1cfa533a300b5f33 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x5376632adddadf6f378960c7f65ffc20b4344fcf040612279b62dfa62a87a884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.2884269010906175
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.38609509058872693
3. Question: Solana Up or Down ... | down | 0.209856 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | 73,554,740 | 73,556,167 |
15c3373ad4e0ddc85dad2fdbc70b1e3c9ca16b90 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xdfdc21cb2244c6a8a630e6276a5fa9216a9024ff6bbe9dfb7d2361e8961c54e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.38609509058872693
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.1417891356955929
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Jul... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | 73,557,002 | 73,561,492 |
a20660b0ab58734fb39d5a680006bbdc726fbf5d | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x5b1f7c590da8a3f29ab3ca32c9cc0144ee688eaa79784699a219005019556dbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.1417891356955929
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4319410183517092
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3,... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | 73,557,006 | 73,561,494 |
23416531375c2abb82460b0fc7d90cc02c7901dc | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x62c6b28f7703e42a07ab80e6a63c8cdd20d9f9ef4621152a4ff1f78104574cf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4319410183517092
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.44759985127546664
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | 73,557,009 | 73,561,496 |
bd9b13b26725d6e68f6e7afe7d9dfc903a0567b4 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xbb4175113e05bde4838f5970b907a2587f6ed591dfd62312833a130cbabb7182 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.44759985127546664
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.21246805706286565
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | 73,559,816 | 73,563,193 |
9fc81242c81a184ec781d3d37ab3513884c4e0ca | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xb1f4656f458f1dec67054ea2f88cd407f360f4eaab14ccde30dfef3286b81845 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.21246805706286565
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45794392523364486
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | 73,559,818 | 73,563,195 |
bd51b43e086039d1062d55884b12cf409118ed04 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x52051800316e4e2a4cdab416bc6d242029030d39b12e9dd0d2f2e1d10dc5c72e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45794392523364486
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07591843795273207
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Jul... | up | 0.068493 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | 73,559,820 | 73,559,820 |
1e0ad34747ae70fb681221cc68ffb6ae800cf368 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x31b3f0d75b24a6b3cc47c0ae4e66b84037c0da73eca9a65b6ede6205d4e9a199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07591843795273207
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4237977626035159
3. Question: Solana Up or Dow... | down | 0.272152 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | 73,559,823 | 73,560,399 |
d9da80d24e1c5d14a58e990ea2ed3f7ce9e463af | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x5dd6c8f79b43704e2f244f27a95ba73919a211db661cc94b4075b5cce78f9a62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-7pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.4237977626035159
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.12903225806451613
3. Question: Ethereum Up or D... | down | 0.207048 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | 73,559,824 | 73,560,400 |
2d0ea0ffc8ef8e75c9772926ab0e23ba43e20e39 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x548875d8b6a9f0aa36e402d0f4fbfdff1f6e832b16c0af792e355f77029ef50c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.12903225806451613
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ... | down | 0.75575 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | 73,559,827 | 73,560,406 |
1fd2395ea72a2d5abfde964147f7b7d8c9f0a9b5 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xb122c2bcd1022293bc617f17a1bc9f1e7b02633536d48f1f9836f3d41424b166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2603685318638845
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | 73,560,397 | 73,564,889 |
531d793fb476c8faebb51736e131bd8e1c93990d | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x4dafc2f2e82331d33b68d4a78ad915c7765ad10e0481c3b3f044081ffbc41f0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2603685318638845
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6378192478998703
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July ... | down | 0.030008 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | 73,561,265 | 73,562,125 |
ffcee3e3bd7eedb849ee447dce9519301ccad23d | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x26329978a39c7763d8b29887338c7d442c198d5a244a946d72c518821860f2db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-8pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6378192478998703
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.06976900570239533
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Dow... | down | 0.05397 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | 73,561,268 | 73,562,127 |
123e0e2e2e9027da387cc862e9bf42b96444de2a | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x15233842286dd099f5baf4540120a86bd5ca6e360790a5ec7b40936e3b4c086d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.06976900570239533
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.24670313481119846
3. Question: XRP Up or Dow... | down | 0.060427 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | 73,561,271 | 73,563,824 |
b2b985dc7663cd4f422a29c50dfa51cf8dd569b2 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xe50db4ec7e6296d29f8a3246f5c4202b761fe3ac5f642aaebc5af8e7dd0b0428 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.24670313481119846
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.03879924819919463
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.101721 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | 73,562,123 | 73,562,123 |
84e61cbd57cb0f980699fac24defdf547025de25 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x8a91953fb08a6e48f5d110f435869f102780ba5bfba224b33b3e7d4e3153b9e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.03879924819919463
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.010591337498964203
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | 73,565,257 | 73,566,384 |
85facbe9d39d6b653122a6a554a2483700735f58 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x85259df4691becab5f2a2b0092185c846c8f53b236f9fdd33a40798ea0d18900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.010591337498964203
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | 73,565,259 | 73,566,382 |
925110466b085e547dc17c5bdbf3edea9e44fd44 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x9723c6586598cd9117235300ef448bbb7c5c1c11290f9273b4d8516a6d525ee0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.039768979316612676
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 1... | down | 0.095896 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | 73,565,261 | 73,566,386 |
eae74170566135cd3d560e84cd6874a9dee6a66e | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x61e409393cae0a6a8aa3f56e27fa838e16ad4079ccfac0e001c3b3c5528d9d27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.039768979316612676
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10P... | up | 0.032995 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | 73,565,263 | 73,566,388 |
41f0a3bcdf27b0f37ae0024c3ed2ca2611411cce | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xe42a2250311b37f015e7989a5d786ed3edaf4d127e3ceaa232a361f627b932c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: et... | down | 0.018399 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,566,390 | 73,568,105 |
f7703de6e82d829ef41ce3071dd8c822e26125ab | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xf8e810ef0b115acea3b69dc3f82204667918cacea9af8a6532fe835fec9ae7e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.03032003947400359
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Jul... | up | 0.155095 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,566,392 | 73,568,103 |
7b90a7ca59bb57b359827f3cc2f729e7edd196f2 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xbb18c37a855901159893ed32c46ebcc6dff015f0a442dc5c59ef69dfa2176a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.03032003947400359
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0760664332328904
3. Question: XRP Up or ... | up | 0.218149 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,566,394 | 73,568,107 |
cdd1693f224c3682f89ffadc115b6e2673be2eca | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xe1c51e8a2a30531068461c12408d47c0531d5b8ac254979f05d0054c451691c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0760664332328904
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1400409165609938
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8AM ET | 73,566,396 | 73,571,654 |
2819562d6f587446b775646af4eda0fc4d7310e6 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x0216e8f80ea0107145adfb87b8598b64eb4c6e56523f9b6d5c1f9f663881a857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.1400409165609938
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.024769952602215938
3. Question: Solana Up or Down... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 9AM ET | 73,568,112 | 73,573,356 |
15ee1e8a17677b49e73be71307e58439b036a619 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x7fc6fe9b9b49be652f0ce2f3d75c1a5f0de2d3b86b9c96eb8f02f6489776f483 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-3-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.024769952602215938
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.017940984539380932
3. Question: Ethereum Up... | up | 0.526646 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 9AM ET | 73,568,115 | 73,570,103 |
586f798ab3dc533d8613998571615ac7672a0dc7 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x72d18fa21f8826b974da6563e8830df309c9d5451ac6a129edfa3adab1dad770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.017940984539380932
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.11377245508982035
3. Question: XRP Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9AM ET | 73,568,117 | 73,573,353 |
265cddcbd658ca7a4dc50a1ba7cf7869acc2bc6f | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xa7168e23ee91fcb2e38bc7ee9515fa3c841d2f1ae7926e9366115e13f20a530d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.11377245508982035
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.13580409020779305
3. Question: Solana Up or Down -... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 9AM ET | 73,568,687 | 73,573,358 |
6dc53e95e1b5111a325e46e1c441a8ab46779a82 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xa2bd372e6c7c7562c3afd8bf4d2212723863bd4de7a790c7e0d8ac229fda9ed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.13580409020779305
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0031904773763935025
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down -... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 10AM ET | 73,570,107 | 73,575,056 |
c5350543e1f91928fb75bb5fcf8808be536059ff | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x7f17cd9f456f5e3b7c070b039bca5ffe8f327fea3324b1226b2e92129db5b7e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0031904773763935025
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 1A... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 10AM ET | 73,570,110 | 73,575,054 |
6588125640e106a2d0a4ebb8afe9f4283aa2d178 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xb7afcfdd77576a363c06bdba1cffb2a7fc686b33f9448b3b20c7025924646aa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.20985589927703732
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2AM E... | down | 0.259666 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 10AM ET | 73,570,112 | 73,571,829 |
3630f3e8934727111f34a81b2965de48ff2c8092 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xb87b1c650a7497c81f2358ce0ab82de5069550831125bc98fb750b44f813fbeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 1AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.20985589927703732
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET ... | up | 0.000474 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 10AM ET | 73,570,115 | 73,571,834 |
b062356a6afe363f42e467357077236ab1d4f534 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xc8e2d4275457c59a01d8037e5a269c1cb8dde3f8a65b8a4cf191e06d2f31ec35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 11AM ET | 73,571,839 | 73,576,709 |
15aec57109dbdd61163f48a29feedefd538cf958 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x083ff8703bd1f8acfa18a1adb1bc685caf8871be6cd5a37df44b68d57a842b14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 11AM ET | 73,571,843 | 73,576,707 |
f04ab100f6ba0579aa5e3f91f5c8c0fa070ac76a | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x80cf7e3be8f11e1dcbf29a4f843a7d3a6dd22fed350f6623f95f75173e8734a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: solana-... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 11AM ET | 73,571,848 | 73,576,711 |
e38d9b5fd55fdaf198c09c58606be8619ad0e441 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x87e042a5bbecf343012b2a33d4c474d3d35d682b2fb64c3659f965c01b28865c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 11AM ET | 73,571,854 | 73,576,704 |
4d9b2f15132f642e41aec852462e27159ed200b3 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xfe8e6d896dc9b121bedcde451aec1b08519d880a4a2479a78a9b8b202ba9034e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0684931506849315
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Eve... | up | 0.35593 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 12PM ET | 73,573,287 | 73,574,731 |
829166a5df9972a8a65e9cd6f5fc424e71550964 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x169d6ba3014d91fb897d8a00b3bc504ecba04818608fa86cede251c9ac1ea7f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0684931506849315
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2721518987341772
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 12PM ET | 73,573,289 | 73,578,426 |
5b6fc90b02a04c878fe9fc2206e00bde9fb88065 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x6a31d8cdcdd8bdc91652a5afc55daf088034d00679b6aecce462611caff66040 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.2721518987341772
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.20704845814977973
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | up | 0.435075 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 12PM ET | 73,573,291 | 73,574,733 |
92131d7e373a558d540db7ce6b175410c45250eb | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x66198177277d7b84d19a794cb61f4cad4a415772a614b49dcf4e877b08dc0e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.20704845814977973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7557496480509447
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12PM ET | 73,573,293 | 73,574,735 |
dd2024274924dfff324f077f5686028c7a2c1aee | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x648ca7d02fcd7e0ab7030d8775b76be41368a91c81064f75afc028c2e11811b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.7557496480509447
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 1PM ET | 73,574,736 | 73,575,592 |
550faa3699c26f7a144ef5e50432a1d2768f6906 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x8f977c5124c64099e1d05845d2d5dfc8a0a0b5239ed59ff71652f16f38054c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.03000755338872485
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1PM ET | 73,574,738 | 73,576,175 |
3749c6e04a1b82af9a57e9765933871aa5844886 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x0557d5a8e935717506c72f2711b8bd0581cce671633935eee37743be05aec574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.03000755338872485
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.053970200945200046
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 1PM ET | 73,575,590 | 73,576,172 |
d8d09b55d6571a6eae52625573906990d39f01f0 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x2f70493798729925a727cb673d00a591e5a84a38f88e2b71ef0aa8cfe6403f5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.053970200945200046
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.060427351899358855
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-4-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 4, 1PM ET | 73,575,594 | 73,575,884 |
642c26315684ba79e30caba5f106c2d8432cb4af | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x4daeb7534e9c12842c067688006dfedab9fb6625c5ed46353e5c6b11c2341855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.060427351899358855
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.10172144597247282
3. Question: Solana Up or... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-4-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2PM ET | 73,576,464 | 73,581,728 |
dfe4e10ed39b2819c15b6c5b9dc2afd3f282c7d5 | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0x74746bc1255cbfef28c7a5a8b5799b74c30a795c753582f618c29b2ef7fee23f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.10172144597247282
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4,... | up | 0.004413 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 2PM ET | 73,576,712 | 73,577,856 |
fcae2133acff49421b9badadc8c25ca1dd9c01dd | 0x212e753e064d3e89905cd61ce975a6e7cdfb99d2 | 0xf807cdf0b6781ec27b965e93a0acf141a3220463a149aa43fa7dabc8609743ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 4, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-4-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2PM ET | 73,576,714 | 73,581,731 |
23470914ce548b5bfabc9b66aa582be8b3f9322b | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x1e4f51ff4728d1948e37cf79651b58259d11182c94a4144018d9a9ff25b617f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025?
Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,909,854 | 73,909,854 |
a4e5bd2a9e5bde6f2547230c9f19126b5c96f43b | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?
Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choi... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 75,081,759 | 75,081,759 |
60782e0913e86a25cb3d24534878d1d73263dc27 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?
Even... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 75,081,759 | 75,081,759 |
f65f7cf15e6f58461cbbf4cf8607cfaf837b3115 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0xee63068ca7287fc71e51014d223b8d82cbef04bbf0053bda2bb54e117fcf3326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | no | 1 | lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Will Girona win on 2025-08-15? | 75,304,968 | 75,304,968 |
85e394757a4512a68c1c0cafaf60b47aa26774d1 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x5adf02e46fa31e895d62f931978ffe3b111cb267437244788a4a6f7b743d8d9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-open-london-2025 | Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? | 76,194,576 | 76,194,576 |
cc02b285d28e4e6c5bae02a099eec0ba7ee459a6 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x8709b3fa1f50046fd9000df7ade47a09d0c11bea8979270b24b80671f4fc9292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13? | 76,428,976 | 76,428,976 |
ed663924cb4c31d7c37defbf2946e0e2a941c9dd | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,468,039 | 76,468,039 |
f2c2ac098bb38c798bab70a057ab53c6c5ae9eb7 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,468,039 | 76,468,039 |
199ad997bff47c0dfa72053375c348b22dab7e2b | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0xf50dc9505053942de38ac0aa8a09ea13caa105d64356f21c06c474b67d16caed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-pfc-2025-09-14 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-14? | 76,468,039 | 76,468,039 |
dfa11390bda85d7a1325072811bde623879e94a5 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,644,011 | 76,644,011 |
0542baf5719c089fc272281085aef28727004fa6 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x938c588686381deb39f3b556914db2cb034a84ed36631b58d6b80b1dbeb1f904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-mon-2025-09-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-18? | 76,644,011 | 76,644,011 |
b0c17544f3e56136586cf8903161fea5d1e97bc0 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x5044799805e335c7353a583ff3b40af42b241eb3f813dd6fdcfa00d891db2d97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | no | 1 | epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | 76,695,127 | 76,695,127 |
2f99aec037a359be9c42e6536846d7457f853638 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x1be581a1ad8cd816ba97bd46dfdbb776d0b616e92be1c6399232e41b892f2c1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | no | 1 | ucl-aja-int-2025-09-17 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-17? | 76,756,488 | 76,756,488 |
404c0a1cdc2187cfa234b0b7db5b10498136d5d0 | 0x2131a32e8dbb7199480e710abe94983c3044aaf2 | 0x26721a3228876ab9a5f4e38bf20dffd3917c983ec3082256be0cae1b0b461f64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wim... | yes | 1 | fl1-aja-tou-2025-09-21 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-21? | 76,756,488 | 76,756,488 |
4592c45cc93a374293473facd17ffad0f4cff0c5 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x04eb10e43e71d2e4bbc2a22b2d7b841f10330e64d637b289d847c32b73386936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | 63,287,996 | 63,287,996 |
ab8786b040c5057e411b54f3eab118ba36f861a6 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x435e3504f3d58c6aef10af6dbfeab77fa81b7aafb91bd08d8ceccf972a5b5040 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?
Event: what-will-trump-sa... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | 63,287,996 | 63,287,996 |
54f5acb1f276a6058e5c0791bae14e066e86c427 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x6eed46208d85d71d0500a5a15928e26c4efd0a1279cb26c5ce76cfaf54f32505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Will Trump say "Trans" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | 63,287,996 | 63,287,996 |
7be0e0223c18aa6c5225bf75967368e12f9a2d03 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x795c371b42686bca1b8904fff28e410bf16d0a7d2f266f61a8bc6ab8e618a5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Will Trump say "Get out and vote" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | 63,287,996 | 63,287,996 |
df865716ceed0bee938a3712162db7c87e6e0dea | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x9c60eacd7b2614ddb825ea43622efe77615e794ccdf540189184633c173d55f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-22 | Will Trump say "Tax" 15 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | 63,371,637 | 63,371,637 |
843365814f4375eeeb7056dd4f8bfe958d99bd92 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc22709cc42b99542cfd579f20b86e836e6246660fc4d4d3be95814ad30f56e9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-22 | Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | 63,371,637 | 63,376,841 |
c56a56a0c3eb105276cecc909aaee4b27cce37a7 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa608d565e6f533a6b2b61c6de07c37c2d00d4b326cab194da4b7e5b7fa6c641d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.000067 | how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Will Trump x Rogan interview last 150-180 min? | 63,491,037 | 63,491,037 |
982921d18bd4015442cf91a8952d99636a764d40 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x88e093db8bc1852e3504f92af1ed93e7c7d3fdb04b6d4c0678225cb109d7fa92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.022764 | how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Will Trump x Rogan interview last 180 min or more? | 63,491,037 | 63,517,458 |
47f521e4aa5dbdce4e8969cf747381a5528384e6 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x2bd18efe785cf24002cfa38a37413739062aa370499b3a5831d202e64596c426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.605835 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,605,294 | 63,613,909 |
bb2807a495e0bee7bfe61c00837df345930d7fae | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x95a71c4f8e508de86cd3a4a5d790385c04c73ee28e603e0852645d6144901ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.615002 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | 63,605,294 | 63,614,474 |
d10b85864af49c406931b34f1f4e45a1c07d16c5 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x8937d16913d4561dac40d38fcc5e49ab162bf057c3f21e1b4e85770db7871909 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-georgia-rally-oct-28 | Will Trump say "Vote" 15 or more times during Georgia rally on October 28? | 63,612,785 | 63,616,513 |
79613184bac820f515df862ca41aaafaae400408 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa67333de9efa77277fd6c80375e99611a40715bd614f7b771843a18d93cb07bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,613,306 | 63,613,306 |
f0b728a87a119b4305fd4f7ac78a573c46c22041 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x65c611f2651f635f5e7a2c577fa377882489c4936cf6cfcc9f5c438664ffc50d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-greensboro-nc-rally | Will Trump say "vote" 25 or more during Greensboro, NC rally? | 63,817,846 | 63,817,846 |
f17bd6316b70295c0859eace9d3209d8a7245311 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x147334c45787b41b3feb7d2593f7dea8ee8e9663eb00e855e8d5d464ee43dd7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-virginia-rally | Will Trump say "vote" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2? | 63,817,846 | 63,818,763 |
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