sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
df051c2b92e357f574b7a99537a0896327fc1317 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x00595863287c7c30148d0714255073d0ae0cf338f5287195b720b4ad1c5cbab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election | Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | 71,135,908 | 71,135,908 |
4d219a5931e5b83deefb75ea77278440c6f090a0 | 0x2161f541e8af8d95518ec9b2c173e3f7ca3679b4 | 0x40ee70f4ac20bac0565f5a0455e5a06d54856f0dcc7960a1b9033d9939ee5966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-sou-liv-2024-11... | yes | 1 | bundesliga-winner | Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | 71,135,908 | 71,135,908 |
0859a1b21704e1ec72a8adb46fc8e28db4dda2ea | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x506266676d2bc23c2f579e3e16322ce460c1ae37135637e33cc40acdb5cea63e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | 59,837,568 | 59,837,568 |
bb406d193c611a3f47bb7e1483568e8453af5a5b | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x8b33321990824e5e28b67420c823f48ff397e5e79e5faa06b6ad83a5f5a33275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | 59,854,927 | 59,854,927 |
f08dbf2befef731f82eda1fb86d8296d5d095f1b | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x60e7cee8f84fa70b7c0fd8bd16610ca288bf3fd73fcc40f44ba090a52b9fd4c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?
Event: elon-musk-of-tw... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-26-aug-2 | Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | 59,971,388 | 59,971,388 |
e62f11516f7e4de7f0ea5c2dae25c21d0c33fc9d | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0xaa1db401fe7aba767dfabd7b4e4f718816b36ec59f65dbad0d99520f2e237647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-26-aug-2 | Will Elon tweet 80-89 times? | 59,974,957 | 59,974,957 |
732ecc2399caff4b45e190b336c39a332a59ee08 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x6b0accd62f239f042aae72684b99257c41d49a0fd7dbfc691268160674297470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-26-aug-2 | Will Elon tweet 120 or more times? | 60,041,687 | 60,041,687 |
f46b11e1b7db0af26c921f96aacba202955edfac | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x86a2d9dcd6c31b9425f7b01f649ef905ae01b60d409fbb7b2835b37979b04cf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | deadpool-wolverine-2nd-weekend-box-office | Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross over $90m 2nd weekend? | 60,245,905 | 60,245,905 |
461a8a3d73a4db6a11008d82ef37232f83c4dbf7 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,272,380 | 60,272,380 |
c24bdb0b454f5e3f67116613c350dccc69761d4d | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x2975406109ebf92cedda5862edc43997e1e5464fe5b2c27d4ba9f1cfbd39b8ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,281,558 | 60,281,558 |
0cbdcb421cb7bc299764014b60fb64e07a95c336 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0xd83c13f14529750b296d6d2b327cbcadd34c2c3e673f4242c1be94d462a36617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,281,558 | 60,281,558 |
9f92bcab7aeae6bb800a2bf44bb005cc99a23dde | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0xe64f063b9e2b02f8ac679ebacfb938088c1ddde2a953a1ebfd4a92b802910371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,281,558 | 60,281,558 |
e3182b3baed7f83ceb328239b892033571513579 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x0f23de762f3fd37f07a2583030f0976557eaa5e655afa5185f89d30edb9772cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | 60,351,617 | 60,351,617 |
5b5e3d4a26ce09017c8a203758a00c8e4b29a098 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x26f4c1147e36671ef9613e13e1f501b15f2f3eac698a46adfd602fa55724b89a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 70-79 times? | 60,380,990 | 60,380,990 |
205b660f03643e9886ee1a6a685908bc689da817 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x5a57506a8481729165381b43586b30d667781c4b20e36924dbb879880dcfc1fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-2-9 | Will Elon tweet 80-89 times? | 60,395,101 | 60,395,101 |
9db28f7e909dad3e70c03c2109ece9a7485d5142 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0xea604f40bb57533c1534d9f17851399c74be73db1515c3bb266d3450b3f208d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | it-ends-with-us-opening-weekend | Will 'It Ends with Us' gross more than $44m on its opening weekend? | 60,521,677 | 60,521,677 |
08921c3b9230dc2a35aaf7b1e1ef43dc682cdf7e | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x3d1a77fb6cdb20fbde4b798c920ecc3b489df43fa621cdf11ce3108b1ba89504 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | it-ends-with-us-opening-weekend | Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend? | 60,522,161 | 60,522,161 |
bf7ff698b020547e39374531d5014193df5121d0 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x28f79072d416a8250e476d81594621f57d74fc02277a5ebb90e7574b80d65399 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 0.999904 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-9-16 | Will Elon tweet 130 or more times? | 60,588,009 | 60,588,009 |
f702fd7fdc595179fb09d4036d9e4fd44bde6cf5 | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0x8da8d9c24a0a6c4331de8f2c4dbb0e1dddc5208e1c7a509c7cd61956f9fff48a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-saturday-rally | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "BTC" at his rally? | 60,745,440 | 60,745,440 |
912bb9bc687fb3adf4beb015ac83bbc7d8f023bf | 0x216edce9b8397d8c9804d9155c6e11fa02a06501 | 0xf10b06088d1b7a68a52a3f709264c957778488f39d1d28c7550c7e1b604a4261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 90-99 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2... | yes | 1 | alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend? | 60,803,852 | 60,803,852 |
e44adf3cd3f83174f987a4230e9f9e023a63b3cb | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x405534c03f82e56a397478db7b068dbb683fb46c976265f650ba6510200749da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Event: premier-league-winner-24-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Liverpool wins the Premier League? | 77,371,661 | 77,371,661 |
18291a9a2c8982ed82d0bcdca820dd6579bbd5f8 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Outpu... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,608,413 | 78,608,413 |
ecc2f4e706c031964406995f62301e47a82e7edd | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x572037f41703ebccec56a87194423171f132f3664c389232585afde186c2c0bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Galatasaray SK win... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,851 | 78,652,851 |
316078a6125f20010a3394b8991a6a2997f6a983 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xbaaa39bbec96c4304a8fc933378632e335107e9bcf60c7d621ff0cb5c5fc7f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,851 | 78,652,851 |
caa891d253d6acb02e4e8ab639fbbd9365cef4fa | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,851 | 78,652,851 |
c3fe17b767a96af88d6c4a7df16f006e364be8dd | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x57516b64008af2afe88194125d595975a388dce368eae51cdd66c4f58cb5aba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | uel-ast4-mta1-2025-11-06 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,735 | 78,698,735 |
f5b7c236bcf12bf0c8119fbd24bffbc60c31dd98 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xd95545152ffe54b7c916b71473bfb95bfa6ee64b742ea725270001405b96e9b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | uel-ran3-rom1-2025-11-06 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-06? | 78,698,735 | 78,698,735 |
f36670d5eccdb35f5a019d9f90186a558eefb900 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x94ed93ecf7a1cecd9726120073dc659abb8d2da3b4276f2ad58ebddf6d7cb4b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-hei-2025-11-08 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-08? | 78,766,037 | 78,766,037 |
b4395fdce7168d5d050897f389626368fa9fea58 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x9fd34d9d3c2bd0e46b29ac8a5acee44addc68b0ed3c657f0cf71058ea0fd8eb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 78,766,037 | 78,766,037 |
f35800af4dc47f1fafbfe836c824acdfc5e5e642 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xaa914eaa1656b3bf382e19226376f1cfb08d22b999d6d27af8785bf6d4f3ee79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08 | Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? | 78,766,037 | 78,766,037 |
84a54c400765f559638e6cca9588d07a8c91b136 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xf147fd3731755174f057611aaf6d51be2e74137193612a932e36ebd107c43f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-ars-2025-11-08 | Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 78,783,733 | 78,783,733 |
b336511735f4e592c5d9efdb40cde6e5bf5e48f2 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0xf349486e538f3d7490541c227fa99065deab527e6e8eea55e1030dbde250308d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | tur-kas-goz-2025-11-08 | Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-08? | 78,783,733 | 78,783,733 |
e5e6511c2afe90a1f218bc6c10c6a1428a998d36 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x5e74c3174875a41bd8eb67733a5f8fa5a54b08cbaf444542c64b1b76f9765663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | epl-not-lee-2025-11-09 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? | 78,807,025 | 78,807,025 |
3b50e5e7ffcd160c35fd357cd8fafd8b41aa7ff3 | 0x2180799423632712f7573de91c706f67f1a6e983 | 0x536a3d173b9ea28c7ce8f9e2fdb7c0f7e770c5d8dec20f8336a98088a2689e51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-0... | yes | 1 | tur-sam-eyu-2025-11-09 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? | 78,826,522 | 78,826,522 |
a94833daf601af993b9df03335a2996bb114a794 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x2a0bc33eeb2df1528256cd9d7f3a1aae9b3ea3bc43f3b74c5347b5d455453d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games?
Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | 67,941,810 | 67,941,810 |
f7bdc049629361113562c2b75c833043c7516de8 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x479aa2c73a0d1baf11ec74cdedc908418421da2dcb8321fc3562074bec0d321c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games?
Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Ou... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | 67,941,810 | 67,941,810 |
b3154154c1b035cab675e37f730e7b14727309a2 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x93ec7298069d02293cf8cf4261e0c6bcee2f83b4a4ff11ffb9abaa8c4261c681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kanye launch a ... | no | 0.714286 | will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | 68,198,046 | 68,198,046 |
15709c4f438baba72b43161a063128ad5309e773 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,954,616 | 70,954,616 |
8c0d5ca25090cfc9f5d1f6c0c7cf0990f6b90135 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x51f7452fddea310ba15955cfa8fa21419335b16f8310074e43f48c4856d7e0b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | 70,954,616 | 70,954,616 |
1ba1619ddc9508b28f3af613d6436f83f041fcde | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x702538016d765521c08de342e1b8df9454ae1e66cca89bf1e037fe07471388c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,954,616 | 70,954,616 |
d3c1d85575303177acc422144a989d91d5a9c7f6 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,954,616 | 70,954,616 |
36a30840eeeef07eed45793b7a071114cea9150d | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x8b4d1584715be1214797eb680966c68238ef24ec4b8f38b293fe6f808620770b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,954,616 | 70,954,616 |
084691fedee8235d38ec21e46a4ae5f3e322e898 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 71,760,287 | 71,760,287 |
81a0f52eff6908e9f6fb6067faca0a5e68ca2020 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x5b4c4db8ad2e74f001160dfd17aaf62fe97304b8232031b9b7b1569928f3f855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Shauhin Davari win Survivor 48? | 71,837,818 | 71,837,818 |
c7ec42cefe551b8fed61817cfdb49a1e5319e2dd | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0xee4cfd4337502e71306c8aeba54154a772e68954ca8fe6895e046720ca32efdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Star Toomey win Survivor 48? | 71,837,826 | 71,837,826 |
fdd7d56ae68125d081b06bee8424ad3f8a03047b | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x40c898924b2d8e88cc6917bea84c24e57c8570883000303e7217dc83ca6d2b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Thomas Krottinger win Survivor 48? | 71,837,835 | 71,837,835 |
dddf88c57d535031785148000c7bd2ba1c6ae11c | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x4603f73dd8c02ac22e6119e1d2b27fc6da296e514a506a20cb7c2f16882e2199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Mitch Guerra win Survivor 48? | 71,837,848 | 71,877,625 |
f7dc3bc92fe9ab2e98217efc140adda1f965de45 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x008b838bb707bdeee56a639202864f09adba977512c3e8c4824d143530caa523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | survivor-48-winner | Will Kevin Leung win Survivor 48? | 71,837,853 | 71,837,853 |
b3131ee51e317ea3503b0c3a5104e71e454f6ec7 | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0xc7296b8d619bd27c229250207dfd025b47264a2754067fb0ee318e12016e7ee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | yes | 1 | lee-jae-myung-of-vote-in-south-korea-election | Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | 72,337,690 | 72,337,690 |
d5453fffa851c12b32b619cfeb0801d7ecf98d7a | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x4b07d94d02053320008306cbe30cbcbabc3276fa26ce05243223dce623878249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 1 | south-korea-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%? | 72,337,700 | 72,337,700 |
24e669e8e647dc876e0e076cb2365e17c57dac3f | 0x218f912f8d88cc6ec06a5f812231d68602c77ef2 | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in Febru... | no | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 72,934,737 | 72,934,737 |
810fdddadd8dde9bfe469d17f00afe9390560c89 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xb3d73badcf1cc7550358fadab681a8303d0ff078df5a78904db2e6be6be765eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | 75,790,296 | 75,792,101 |
c0edb008a7e3c76a8d552c12aea424aab7492451 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xcb6d3c04f2caede5200127d6d4c202e9a93688a7a972c61e7927d561b195e579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O... | down | 0.000294 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | 75,803,980 | 75,803,980 |
5b7fd40c4799e38206d81a95f4254c9017bcc87e | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x4ba9bf746b74b304d89ad935e5defd72795b555eacb7f16f8e31a3e5389f31a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
Target market:
Question: ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12PM ET | 75,969,383 | 75,971,609 |
1fd17fe6d4db0c8d14c98b310a6f07a2e2163b8b | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xcb38a1f6a34c259f21ac3b534d824602a498c1ea783a7b3917c25ef665b61470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-06 | Will Maldives win on 2025-09-06? | 76,147,133 | 76,147,133 |
3b32e16b17b415f7c8cb36b91ae348730a1497b9 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x081ea3b27454fc64167dd2448be41aad44be99dae4249ccf3d65bdad244a46f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | uef-ire-hun-2025-09-06 | Will Hungary win on 2025-09-06? | 76,147,168 | 76,147,168 |
7792287cee03a8ccb516b1ff881ca9c3d1dd5c64 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xababde5fc6a45882921bb0f6f9f4f4f45e0edf62980d8e9da97b649a4aae96d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-06 | Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-06? | 76,147,168 | 76,147,168 |
a2c4b3572584e4a9afa531fb840fec83a90ca8ab | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x2d97089b68e20a94f692537317303d7d444ca874609093436dbd6198e20689bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Will Sri Lanka win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,756 | 76,266,756 |
55329178130b04644fdc8c726cd0b77bf487138a | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x7d0add682040384ebac0377ebb75a7bdf059c42707f9845d3847b2fb77d61f02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,756 | 76,266,756 |
d7760973756c4b398265aaf39b8b8c94e317e2fc | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x84762466eb6aba19b7e08569410c5b3e25d6411959f618c707f2bce98098cc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? | 76,266,756 | 76,266,756 |
4b3c23418c4be0de62ab78785eebb6b3bb0ea3d7 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xa299767b72076f71ffba9bffcb86d115e1a85f93db37e8b5b5eae07d324271b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | uef-arm-ire-2025-09-09 | Will Armenia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? | 76,266,756 | 76,266,756 |
cc24049c7d5f5e0e136cc34d2127ee49560a4ae4 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x414ff3874c675028e83b11e4b4de3be6831a0c1b2b2fd4bfd586c7150f52533e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | fif-sri-mdv-2025-09-09 | Will Sri Lanka vs. Maldives end in a draw? | 76,266,922 | 76,266,922 |
da0d50fa2159fb8c109390cf761b2762041c6843 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xef9f6953b9be7ebe624fea24d0ebf2e4a0d33ee16697ff275873ee2078ea87f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | no | 1 | epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | 76,432,964 | 76,432,964 |
5532e59a24b13bcdd6afc8250471c13ea1327b5a | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,587,969 | 76,587,969 |
978f038906d017279614fc25ed053616d4894799 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x0a2b1585c8b4ad56863fe8173c2c0953a7e618c6c258c5e3b0d673f8dc78f426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | arg-new-est-2025-09-30 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw? | 77,112,283 | 77,112,283 |
975571adc08274db6bf72cbe699c66fcc5e25906 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x654c900ae76de13537a89265450d6609fa17908cc49b0ee933c4b1e02e18a7cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Tottenham Hotspur end in a draw? | 77,112,283 | 77,112,283 |
c918dd4eb513046af86dd9e947ed7efc0f2aca0a | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x01e56370c59a95034d86affb22c7355f71abf617f642a19e57080cc611c9039d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Pafos FC vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
ae529d670ffb72fe18547c9d8ef95bdf82fbec7e | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x3ee3305e8c31ffc7122db03f98dce9ee30e2b05285abaa5ee71f14e1f35d52a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Galatasaray vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
2d5cf75332c250821d3fe9d7a4a8ee0b568937e9 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0x56a53b334fff842b55a7dbeea349920453ff9f4dad0c456c52f2a06c00a2b637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Inter vs. Slavia Praha end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
b991155f7f0155654e7469a30245ac68d2768b25 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xb43c0bb1eca3f49c135e49f4a00fbe972988bd4cf279e640799ff86216ccb709 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-chi-2025-09-30 | Will Inter Miami CF vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
9b1e68f573fc8e1970e6db3706390b84a6d400f3 | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xd72a5356a729a4a2d73699752edf60fe3192c044195e46203cedbd3d994073a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-ben-2025-09-30 | Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
2740ba193f48fbec22ee3db363d3deb22a4d270c | 0x225f0d7ddd985ebf9a4715fe6cc7eefb322a5ec6 | 0xdc4b628582dce58a71df1faa2eaa41040c4b982c987c015a7cf3268ece9b52b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002943283806292227
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm-aja-2025-09-30 | Will Olympique Marseille vs. Ajax Amsterdam end in a draw? | 77,136,513 | 77,136,513 |
b51442907db880909598dec6bb713a3de73d7fa5 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xe1e9a928cb36a8ab18bc9845937e1c5ffea54f423d84183dd455997acb2d44a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Rockies vs. Brewers
Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | rockies | 1 | mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Rockies vs. Brewers | 73,312,669 | 73,312,669 |
557ae5991a78612ad0ef78512165f7471bf24e2c | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x020ad10b77da747167b6d5a2d5478c88b9ad5cbc13804784cb26346c13f0fee4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "ratio... | diamondbacks | 1 | mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Giants vs. Diamondbacks | 73,489,469 | 73,489,469 |
b2ff3a40f551fdf150c65fd47faacae0ef4ce2c7 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x9b79a032f78d83f4082fae07820294da5597440312fcc315c36ab6e1ecffab8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Brewers vs. Mets
Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01
Predict the user's cho... | brewers | 1 | mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Brewers vs. Mets | 73,513,997 | 73,513,997 |
13134c6c87b6987a3367049238211a14d88cdde7 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xa3955f03494e410ca1ea48642532865ce6c0f6505e1aaa65e4aff5afe85df775 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | orioles | 1 | mlb-nym-bal-2025-07-08 | Mets vs. Orioles | 73,757,434 | 73,757,434 |
4bba105313bda75acbe022a5bd3a36cbc29252b8 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x892898e999f5e7181241663d4946e8ad4b3c0a39b243a0e911f93f67c753c6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | twins | 1 | mlb-pit-min-2025-07-12 | Pirates vs. Twins | 73,902,223 | 73,902,223 |
b8a2efd82eaf8f2501df449de185418497c1313c | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x9f416c807eceb4d30a0fe212a457a2c3d11b6867912aec152b03ff630765b0d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | astros | 1 | mlb-hou-ari-2025-07-23 | Astros vs. Diamondbacks | 74,343,001 | 74,343,001 |
7b25012f0e7e173c1c9285becb0e151c62fb0981 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x2d46087367fd7d4ecf75a751c0d2d9beb37841f6553af1df134b92e91f648666 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | astros | 1 | mlb-hou-bos-2025-08-01 | Astros vs. Red Sox | 74,695,538 | 74,695,538 |
23290be891c87772f962a1131c4f47702e103f7a | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x64e5c4a981829672c89460959404e89a208aa2dcf04a86de075e69d80b383070 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | reds | 1 | mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11 | Phillies vs. Reds | 75,103,089 | 75,103,089 |
03e2d6dc7c6288412eda46636eef3eaddef97b69 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xa3ac39faf266553dafa601e204fafd98361f2f31d0a9bc436c3ecc5ab9730722 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | cincinnati | 1 | cfb-neb-cin-2025-08-28 | Nebraska vs. Cincinnati | 75,790,757 | 75,790,757 |
58c7ace2ac2b409f90fe6c7ae7da9da7fb5554c6 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x3a7d8ef2aa45dcb3a92f62c251c22135c5965d7db5bec22802346f8a5edd2e7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | sea-laz-ver-2025-08-31 | Will Verona win on 2025-08-31? | 75,930,507 | 75,930,507 |
abeb0dedcb1feaa7277a972449b7232f0e6bab1d | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x1cc11fe391b522d141a6b6dba7c40e81ae1530b3941f0da5b36d2823dcd2c123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-hof-2025-09-13 | Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-13? | 76,428,208 | 76,428,208 |
8e3c5045b138b55725e8495b9662c927190053be | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xc765f3ca6eb4f316804669e4e24eec2ead3f211130b0f1b72333a5409c1d4bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 0.999901 | tur-ant-kay-2025-09-20 | Will Antalyaspor win on 2025-09-20? | 76,711,267 | 76,711,267 |
c5f4758b8e7789d4c1f3ee1394158c29081fc413 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x12ae00966331b43e957f89b853fd28a8a4a49598c5594008e22e93e5f6504dae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | guardians | 1 | mlb-tex-cle-2025-09-27 | Rangers vs. Guardians | 76,994,368 | 76,994,368 |
35c6d977354323e5898a53a2f4019a178c845046 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x7ce5e83fb014116216ddf986e0bbff19d0d46f1f39ec66fdd75950f3153ba566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | sea-com-cre-2025-09-27 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-27? | 76,994,441 | 76,994,441 |
870d6d02970a0b50f8ad8cd5bdcd2e8286dca32d | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x500338f5f95306e3043849d59fbcfadb0612c04ce9906e0bb878748eef0bcf2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-pfc-2025-09-28 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-28? | 77,015,906 | 77,015,906 |
eb1e56010ae7fff6f872135e18b599a5053cb520 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xd3d6a8638c0db436a552b63c7c9525ff9bb4eadcff31f916f965f4750ec16f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? | 77,015,906 | 77,015,906 |
15e692ae8329806e9f33a2591d29c25e1ddc1dc9 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x0f73b424304e149c9977c06e889a24cd2c0c1d15b16e3dde54b2667a6bd87429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 0 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? | 77,114,914 | 77,183,553 |
bfcdd4aa002a770992dd131e2ce322fbfeb4628b | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xe5fbe9257950868d9e367f4466c79a3b997584e327c6b69d0a6f7204a0b758e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 0.000105 | ucl-olm-aja-2025-09-30 | Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30? | 77,114,914 | 77,183,553 |
9a44570f3745aa76ce055c6a7dd071abf42ec655 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,183,553 | 77,183,553 |
7c9c706a7e75f16e6d550538060c624b6987b1dc | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x56a53b334fff842b55a7dbeea349920453ff9f4dad0c456c52f2a06c00a2b637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Inter vs. Slavia Praha end in a draw? | 77,183,553 | 77,183,553 |
048c2c9698eb45a7ef7adaa4ef8dafc544e0db4e | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x7f5f2edb8dde6913890a0880560d7a5ebc917f6aadbf9da6527ce918721be42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-30? | 77,183,553 | 77,183,553 |
7a5223e1a94a50a6d7c447953613bff93b3a7abb | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x0ec8ffe813918cec5de65d05bef8acbe1898c0d7bc1d7b02b573947d9cf1914a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | uel-fen-nic-2025-10-02 | Will Nice win on 2025-10-02? | 77,236,856 | 77,236,856 |
9257766086aa4f7384f63544ed7bf3171abd0a81 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xd8f6e6360552260416d0aecf88fc509c7b0be9af18d5ffd45138985caf07f20c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | sea-int-cre-2025-10-04 | Will Inter vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? | 77,264,180 | 77,264,180 |
7c77b8994302c041441e0834b375643e99d1c49e | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x54aeede192fc6308efca7d86349e2b7d0e7b36c22c02f69cd305566f68b29a3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 0.000011 | epl-wol-bri-2025-10-05 | Will Brighton win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,031 | 77,320,309 |
c66303a3a16594e6a824aec344f12ca61652518e | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x82832c723ac5d76a9803fffeb6b84132c012634040ee25671f8fe09ddac3519b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | mls-laf-atl-2025-10-05 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,320,309 | 77,320,309 |
8f651a0fa3438947be09523dda8fbafb2a530f74 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x79f838ab08d81dfc4d99ebfc2b9a4cd0c27b153e023c1bd4d3457592068c87e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | flames | 1 | nhl-cal-utah-2025-10-15 | Flames vs. Utah | 77,748,421 | 77,748,421 |
7dbb15711eb8749addc0fbe6135b979079d876a1 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0xfcc945c92dbc59ec0c7297dae013c1d82cce384e91ab706396c3fa31febf1471 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | no | 0 | epl-mac-eve-2025-10-18 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-18? | 77,855,335 | 77,855,348 |
d054057a5b35d1e5e6c333223088bd2d01800b43 | 0x227238f7b4c160a4e07207e0d8a18e90c4832e9c | 0x626778aca9aaed81ea2d434a7fc49759ca37189601796ce4debd83330a88e810 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-col-mil-2025-06-27 | Choice: rockies | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sf-ari-2025-07-01 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Brewers vs. Mets | Event: mlb-mil-nym-2025-07-01 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 0.000498 | tur-riz-tra-2025-10-18 | Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-10-18? | 77,855,335 | 77,858,979 |
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