sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2d96fdd2c6c2c4af9eba4b5f2d557c406bb3121d | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x8a8c07c9a64745862cc517316ff161ef8f2812b2a1be13da4917787f15e3951c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.038332 | trump-x-elon-space-tonight | Trump x Elon space tonight? | 63,938,491 | 63,941,751 |
3c7bb7bc09c469048f2e2c9480a3428b53e05584 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xe0ca6ed8e5d3a5ca7c9a6a9b40880cedc8cd9730e62db3780119b9b3e9891604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0.046178 | will-trump-concede-by-friday | Will Trump concede by Friday? | 63,947,464 | 63,947,464 |
0c78e61b6a0e796068893716467fef4ed3882521 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xaab679068043537c70e677d7fc9edf1852c8748f5a518e04d748199f4d616d69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0 | will-trump-lose-iowa-but-win-election | Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | 63,947,464 | 63,970,330 |
98515d33a93408ccdbedb61895c0a190bb758673 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x14018049e265a2d88f284be9588e2e3542e3a3df08ccdb344d28355dd7fdd8ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,966,433 | 63,966,433 |
82612db269b58fbb2398392bdad549cac487a746 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x7883a3c40bb01cbd3b9ec9e3b73d75af705e300c9369f27178739cf3f4fa089a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0.000056 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 64,014,778 | 64,014,778 |
8828cdfece5432e8ea961495f513eddbde718b7c | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x36de03f6e55ea3f1686d7f7ef7cd6c70a84717a9985901ff61a815d35f5f5fbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 1 | will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | 64,021,162 | 64,021,162 |
588da81180d1db22f43216660412e25c3d5fb719 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x69a5ac1c6a7d4fa3370416f598aebc8909dfbc6f32c7d9bd9d4913a2556f87ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 1 | will-trump-concede-by-midnight | Will Trump concede by midnight? | 64,025,321 | 64,025,321 |
c8813972252983ff45eb6b50d673f6ad7a76419f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x1bf993133e4479b4fc7c3dd9469a80efcadcbd15c23901aaf5f291f308149bc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 1 | last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Will Arizona be the last state to be called by the AP? | 64,084,324 | 64,084,324 |
47ad0888cb4cd25878211c179586bc48d3b52438 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x3493b21b7ffc121cb050116b442f0f6157ed5668bbb6e914a197c4b6325e40d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 1 | last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Will Nevada be the last state to be called by the AP? | 64,084,324 | 64,084,324 |
d2585dd281d353357ed4ac3a9d9a37fdba6cf7de | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x4a8cea886680cc9162fd06ee6b27d008769463501de95d6fb8593e2639c11a56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 1 | last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Will another state be the last state to be called by the AP? | 64,084,324 | 64,084,324 |
d99359bd72eaeebc89b89d9ade197f7e3275bef0 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x578063484cc14765834056084ceb0c9752dbc34f9aa7a284704d7fe4831fb9a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0.052632 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary? | 64,524,751 | 64,524,751 |
85ef8de7b9d7e9a93e0e0573e60e829c3bfc97fe | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x24c5b2343fe9bbf9c2e68ead9f71ee1930e483aae812805471add00347a86cb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | no | 0.025641 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? | 64,524,751 | 64,524,839 |
f8fff30ff4d335d032bd3e7710e38aace62fbea8 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa93623e5dcd6a82ba77044a9d0f97e1afe97c2d7a15529076f9e2837b058b5ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.127413 | will-elon-musk-buy-msnbc-before-april-2025 | Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? | 64,612,516 | 64,612,516 |
e962cf69a72279232a8991ce6d16aa3ff5c695e7 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x593ba27e0b0493597a447beeda8d837ad607917ba978b82ca25a2cacbefcd388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.44816 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary? | 64,614,631 | 64,615,872 |
d7d2f8073da4c67be16e0d65dcefa2358daee394 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x5b00e0a13b86d356aec00d473653acd9e8ac71e3236bca8049545b57fe51d2c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.566164 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | 64,614,631 | 64,615,872 |
e359438bef0e78976cba6203428c35f0feffffff | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xfeaf0ffc3e3e658687bcdcab297333ac981025bf9a4277facae81123af4708e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.310345 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | 64,615,872 | 64,615,872 |
8a0b600a94464c0ab24af01a51484dc866ff3424 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x10fe6469583bb82a3421be8b08913372946a35030f82a048d386e03e5fa480b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pe... | yes | 0.610314 | daniel-penny-found-guilty-of-manslaughter | Daniel Penny found guilty of manslaughter? | 65,015,239 | 65,015,239 |
979ba66af8a8cb59f17cff99727afb9eb622dbb8 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x0515df587949a34e857ed80caa630fd1d33f38f53efb4181a49bf96c0672d06e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Trans" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Lie" during the interview? | 65,101,978 | 65,200,094 |
123481295894e9e51be2aa69709a06ae88536b97 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x7d0257d82efd5dd7d72dbf9a426b74ed046959889b355c6e3c6313f437a76c6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Trans" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Get out and vote" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Affair" during the interview? | 65,101,978 | 65,200,094 |
8a6826213e95601988d274d4053cc81a3e7eb629 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb649b3805b9c53c2efcdd41ea084711db0f2c5b830e23d8560a33768840c1bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Get out and vote" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Tax" 15 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | Event: what-will-trump-s... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Ukraine" during the interview? | 65,101,978 | 65,200,094 |
8e0a130e3365624b2f1726bb2a7bb7a15b2b08c9 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb8d2a98877ed1d47c01b86871ce51f1ce9003bd4e650061d8f7965d1b18d4604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Tax" 15 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | Event: what-will-trump-sa... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Witch hunt" during the interview? | 65,101,978 | 65,200,094 |
49c2b3acddde432b7ac885b17f53b1a4bdd31b7e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x23562c22041f02f19858b5d7e375689b2e36210ceeca9001348163469b481593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during North Carolina rally October 22? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump x Rogan interview last 150-180 min? | Event: how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Choi... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Woman" or "Women" 5 or more times? | 65,119,652 | 65,200,094 |
10b3458980bd0d986b33d02b49f0f45a0ed67d2e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xd419301e103b2d9617b83a659c6e5a368631b8141d46194f4097b6b3546b6dad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump x Rogan interview last 150-180 min? | Event: how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.705623259402248e-05
2. Question: Will Trump x Rogan interview last 180 min or more? | Event: how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Sex" during the interview? | 65,119,652 | 65,200,094 |
66f6e77edc16d453efe3329c1e95534a979e1e24 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xd77cc0a082c70366f4e55a9201314bea9df1c2ee4ee6c563fb7c025e8c1e8ada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump x Rogan interview last 180 min or more? | Event: how-long-will-the-trump-x-rogan-podcast-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.022764252839720445
2. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.605834721665014
3. Question: Will Vinic... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Assault" during the interview? | 65,119,652 | 65,200,094 |
87bbea1d988c414f653510c14640a3113e95db40 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x71d2d26a55e22b209a2fe476616c51eb5414c54dbcf38a804f3ee0de7cbc9b9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.605834721665014
2. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6150017481968535
3. Question: Will Trump say "Vote" 15 or more times during Geor... | no | 0 | michel-barnier-out-as-prime-minister-of-france-in-2024 | Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? | 65,124,910 | 65,124,910 |
2602f932eedd869ccd50748f7964a58e08ec4ef0 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc2704cedf3f9353343a5735c17ed9220d1b39b99186bed58afef4724a1ef2a9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6150017481968535
2. Question: Will Trump say "Vote" 15 or more times during Georgia rally on October 28? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-georgia-rally-oct-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Qu... | no | 0 | macron-out-as-president-in-2024 | Macron out as president of France in 2024? | 65,138,237 | 65,138,237 |
b7f6f63bbb3d628bd5d6bfea581c82c88271548f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x1445e9510f45aa3c49f8e9d6c3e3f2037176ebcef119e9a71704d323bb58c85d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Vote" 15 or more times during Georgia rally on October 28? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-georgia-rally-oct-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T... | yes | 1 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Alcohol" during the interview? | 65,138,237 | 65,200,094 |
8b73d9056d80c0f2c80c02786c3f8cc9c315baed | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xe2399359878b3c16d750c5452575a78bbd5fef49ff2875a03fd7e2fe7960ca40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "vote" 25 or more during Greensboro, NC rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-greensboro-nc-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "vote... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Trump" 10 or more times? | 65,138,237 | 65,200,094 |
26f8a6b52b9e6d3a9af4507cd40714bcc7f62443 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x74929a4ed13004160db207b2d8475fe19daaf7b716b52b22c153ed8ff6e2cac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "vote" 25 or more during Greensboro, NC rally? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-greensboro-nc-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "vote" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-virginia-rally | Choice:... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Fake news" during the interview? | 65,182,216 | 65,200,094 |
f5d9d9706cc4b48ba495d940193c35df37ef41b9 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x979eafef937af85e7e2ca3200b00fe66bfee9c119726a001cc62bf4604a46c89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "vote" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-virginia-rally | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump x Elon space tonight? | Event: trump-x-elon-space-tonight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03833223988250376
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Racist" or "Racism" during the interview? | 65,182,216 | 65,200,094 |
c84bca2210c193f136684c932b0a974eabc0addd | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa37bff259c810b5a852af69fcdd015836e7ed908203b1663e48355043a2ab4eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump x Elon space tonight? | Event: trump-x-elon-space-tonight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03833223988250376
2. Question: Will Trump concede by Friday? | Event: will-trump-concede-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04617774263836274
3. Question: Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? |... | no | 0 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the interview? | 65,182,216 | 65,200,094 |
d70bc3e8b2d917bdc5a2546351f884cd754dbe57 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xf9fbc0c7bd8b0c065317f88e5111d745b5b0b5ab2d6b0bc60375aa251988daf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump concede by Friday? | Event: will-trump-concede-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.04617774263836274
2. Question: Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | Event: will-trump-lose-iowa-but-win-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Pres... | yes | 0.011124 | what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Will Hegseth say "Drunk" during the interview? | 65,182,216 | 65,200,094 |
389528b5b44f03ee6c7bf1891e78ebbf86f5525f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x9ce4ce441b98560634b67589135dac0034a45edaacf13455c9add1ddbb6b7dec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump lose Iowa but win election? | Event: will-trump-lose-iowa-but-win-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interes... | no | 0.000006 | will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | 65,213,560 | 65,213,560 |
ba147cc64a933fcf0189d52c64861fa82bee6632 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x5fdae18bcfbcdf4db14c8a0cbda081af3bceb663790b3539ba9741d77966da1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.55369154797142... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during press briefing? | 65,326,947 | 65,326,947 |
d8aa5137a7793f9b6bdc355f1df52fba701f59dc | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xfb36bbf817f52bd4b4d9b529494e4a41d43fd00235075b7391eb475e0f19b88e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.553691547971426e-05
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 0.000002 | brian-thompson-perps-manifesto-released-by-friday | Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | 65,326,947 | 65,326,947 |
48551101defc3659e59ea60b3ad8b0188b5c7e4b | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x94f778643d0ba20b8825218f520500f21916d6bfb244189ffec1c2951c8c2881 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris concede by midnight? | Event: will-kamala-harris-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump concede by midnight? | Event: will-trump-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arizona be the last state to be called... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Will KJP say "Kamala" during press briefing? | 65,326,947 | 65,329,713 |
3c71d7b9f08f86e5a660534d00eb16aa36edb213 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa307db2f90e5d100721d5fbcee287eda20c73566d4308a419f0aa47aa6eeb43d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump concede by midnight? | Event: will-trump-concede-by-midnight | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arizona be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nevada be the... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Will KJP say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during press briefing? | 65,326,947 | 65,329,713 |
fba6c588a95341a3f8d601521c86ec8e0c5114bb | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xf6320e56e4277f41dfe2432bf04cc91594f8b1cccdda95940c05aaca2c8a14e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arizona be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nevada be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Will KJP say "Putin" during press briefing? | 65,326,947 | 65,329,713 |
4b9be5c5cf34d9a09de6154d0cb9af0c3cc5d9f6 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x31ed456ee297ae730f248630ede1c6bb30eb39e616611a995cb9a3a02d95e837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nevada be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another state be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | 65,439,895 | 65,439,895 |
01d5c8963f82450c1fb8e33d368268627f2b0245 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x65be1e6759ce4b850c4944d3265853290000c6577d42b8eb0a481e4d440b022a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another state be the last state to be called by the AP? | Event: last-state-to-be-called-in-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will another game win Game of the Year? | 65,439,895 | 65,439,895 |
cf3576b1841fd0e0d46f75345dfbac4c2e91d6c0 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa5aeffa26126c3a16e21e7331c3fe7fe4e7895fe9af17885fb2fdf903c0e8e27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05263157894736842
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choi... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | 65,439,895 | 65,439,895 |
54bd66617b56ad2b34f459b67c3ac438c073cd43 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xbc7a5e7106ad6b3d9c51f7e5152c04faf29ae2f471fd9c8e12ffaa3f5d7a6335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.02564102564102564
2. Question: Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? | Event: will-elon-musk-buy-msnbc-before-april-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.1274129430347... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | 65,439,895 | 65,439,895 |
0e696841802872169d52daa9fb11734323cec087 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xf904926acf35ab9a6070ce9c98c05dc29dfa5ad096efb045b76e775065be5e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? | Event: will-elon-musk-buy-msnbc-before-april-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.12741294303478345
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4481597410714... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | 65,439,895 | 65,439,895 |
4dbc3404a0348b68f000799b12e7daec9f2f3e4a | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x7949174f6cb3b0781fbd1a63a51fb7d2e72ac2d7cff1628f2c62477b64734bff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4481597410714171
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: ... | no | 0 | will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | 65,652,467 | 65,652,467 |
b158fb7ccfbc36446096305304ab92356ed36f92 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa0945545bf6ad2d1d7037aa9bf5d1f981f88f7c3eea45e19ad184ef4ef7ecc6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5661644729104071
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choic... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech? | 65,688,269 | 65,688,269 |
cffabcb299094e868c5efccf075fb6de625b6cdf | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x2fc8f8cc40668ba16c45d37f45d0bd8a3601c4d84d9c0d50f83bf3ded5f580bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3103448275862069
2. Question: Daniel Penny found guilty of manslaughter? | Event: daniel-penny-found-guilty-of-manslaughter | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 65,688,269 | 66,273,211 |
72568f5515ffd1c3172edc7ecec66bbe7a28a99e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x25fb5cff767eb77b44b537461eaccd51db3aac58be6e60e1ce8721d6a13707a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Daniel Penny found guilty of manslaughter? | Event: daniel-penny-found-guilty-of-manslaughter | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6103141886761705
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Lie" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | next-coin-on-robinhood | Will $BONK be listed first on Robinhood? | 65,699,232 | 65,699,232 |
46512c5ea8f2471fb1f21e2ed67537de24fa5da2 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x4101bee8771b169daa88751bbb41ac9218f84d548b8db2a7f96abdfea5ff8cd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Lie" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Affair" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during next press briefing? | 65,723,003 | 65,723,003 |
02b4dba3455ce4697c99be8726e1bc3c6c5484ed | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x59b392bceee6562c94eb49595fac3858068407c9505eee38fc61013e466f91ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Affair" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Ukraine" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Will KJP say "president" 30 or more times during next press briefing? | 65,723,003 | 65,723,003 |
c54bad78caeb1f35ca8d31256cdc3c38dfef005e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xbe70199b6415589eec1e4ff27ad4f1397dd20d6be756553adc8247fca428e3b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Ukraine" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Witch hunt" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Will KJP say "pardon" during next press briefing? | 65,723,003 | 65,726,575 |
9d065db67cf76d4e723b372cf2706a7dbc07d4cd | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x87d67272f0ce1bb0d80ba12a1ab79287b2a235a5f361f5bcbc06ea0ce34e61c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Witch hunt" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Woman" or "Women" 5 or more times? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. ... | no | 0 | us-government-shutdown-before-2025 | Will there be a US Government shutdown? | 65,851,147 | 65,851,147 |
017b7bb0ab1831bbe161019ff929596b2a787c9a | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x53f6b966701a41c8d98d57d9cc4d79a45de340c0f4d6dc67faeda54e8cc4afeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Woman" or "Women" 5 or more times? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Sex" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | yes | 0.962687 | azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | 65,956,356 | 65,956,784 |
c9d34f254815ac2c27a578c8ee74299c90d5e335 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x343bf1bd099afafadf74ab2362d67ac3ecbd4d791f35f88eb83254a5f90715a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Sex" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Assault" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: M... | yes | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 1-20 tries? | 66,010,348 | 66,010,348 |
2364c3baeac92282d058fcb585953e506df81e32 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x7a1cbe743df1a3c5db80ac29bc4ed66faaeb5da5badda69bdb9bc2a2bab3862d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Assault" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? | Event: michel-barnier-out-as-prime-minister-of-france-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0 | ishowspeed-kai-cenat-win-fortnite-before-midnight | Kai and Speed win Fortnite before midnight? | 66,011,764 | 66,031,668 |
3ec49fa30a94276d3923e57bdccdfd61c9cd3978 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc0d35b5eb721300f8cc66152ca0807e973d11fe5b18bf6ebdfe4ade541b013b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? | Event: michel-barnier-out-as-prime-minister-of-france-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Macron out as president of France in 2024? | Event: macron-out-as-president-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | 66,031,676 | 66,031,676 |
d57425ff8b0cb97c6fe6cb4762332c2b483848e1 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x78711a46224d751c6eebad06c110672b0bdde93b66086b8ab6857ca10f393e3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Macron out as president of France in 2024? | Event: macron-out-as-president-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Alcohol" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hegseth say... | yes | 1 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | 66,073,161 | 66,073,161 |
db6af84a53087b5b079b8b6fd689159ea75ebc00 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x1467fb8b60357a6033554a3cdb10a755dbf1b886e57cd4a88cf3875dce5e759e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Alcohol" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Trump" 10 or more times? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 0.919017 | how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | 66,079,548 | 66,079,548 |
e166c45225d350cc406f4a671b72d1a4b40ec2a4 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x45136f49fefec82513851d46b2af70c7f3439d9091cb0a5d389bd2026db5d9a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Trump" 10 or more times? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Fake news" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | steam-awards-labor-of-love | Will 'Elden Ring' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
9cf341a9ed70bd43f536b843df23b46abbff5e74 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x49f0ed76bbbd0bdfb3d5b89f730d3ab18b6880b581dbec0c7f38b4297874b481 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Fake news" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Racist" or "Racism" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0... | no | 1 | steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Will 'Helldivers 2' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
bfd8b4cc7fa5445976c6ae165dec7af4bcc47cdb | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x52150c9513c7ae6406641f92b8b0f135ead4cab51936bed4c63d92bf6b92fbe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Racist" or "Racism" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | steam-awards-labor-of-love | Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
3c46648139c2ef0a8b03938cbfcf9b26aada3481 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x7eddc580962fd8d802dbc09f55e8489a77f15b07428ea899480b1f90459b40ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Hegseth say "Drunk" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 1 | steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Will 'Balatro' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
9a7850be12864a7baddb7f4c93bedcd0e3b9dcb8 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc2101795df09917f618858410047f0f7ab52b3b6fd34404afee46412ed2c84f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hegseth say "Drunk" during the interview? | Event: what-will-hegseth-saying-during-fox-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.011124373781806909
2. Question: Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Event: will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Will 'Satisfactory' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
9308ced169143fc42090a67729fa61351ceb0214 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xdb418d3cb28964761df29bc39bdbe3fe52b41cd46dda765bcff38dd18633a8de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Event: will-assad-remain-president-of-syria-through-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.506696990211426e-06
2. Question: Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conf... | yes | 1 | steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Will 'Liar's Bar' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,157,135 | 66,157,135 |
1dda337788fa513a7b0e7e4a96c9047e142a61fd | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc9245f04f26a1cbe765e5b80868f113c0da34319895075f6de57db3cde097609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | Event: brian-thompson-perps-manifesto-released-by-friday | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | next-senate-majority-leader | Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 66,274,958 | 66,274,958 |
763bb56ab7550a1925233cd2e09b54d523621342 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xbdaf44f7a53e1e1783ed905ae3e3c5b6527e88d9a2900fba58637bd70b0e2ceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday? | Event: brian-thompson-perps-manifesto-released-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.2317437853921276e-06
2. Question: Will KJP say "Kamala" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Co... | no | 0.230764 | how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | 66,274,961 | 66,274,961 |
49ba80b6a68e335b8235933c2fd5a171c55a52ce | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x1675affd68ede63bde80cd52e62b1d64d765275501e179d0ac153eba2248d0e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "Kamala" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will KJP say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | 66,381,003 | 66,381,003 |
7d27d9bf9197dd2777820b7a133df63c9a027992 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x82b00b147f3dd1d7e96a562a4cba4259a39398c1bb3fddf8fdcd4cbb3b074d23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will KJP say "Putin" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confid... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,381,003 | 66,381,003 |
f57c8c9444d0857db33640d30eba67ebb25cf40b | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x9ffbb85cb9746c1820d6f505c1577dfd5d66c3549e8c60673ac7311b6d6accaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "Putin" during press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-white-house-press-conference | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another game win Game of... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,381,003 | 66,381,003 |
84a690b8c101d4c6a912242432665815e892422d | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb42c8e3ac031df00478552dca57f711d1e9311652f507f5e3fd6d26c409b3808 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another game win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Will Daniel Craig win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | 66,381,003 | 66,381,003 |
ab1746a3d721506544c9662d2c69ef41666d90fd | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another game win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | Event: gam... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,381,493 | 66,381,493 |
cb0126a01f40a0ef6edf1be9b0a0dbf8788bdbfa | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x3490ed6af1e6f73c0871a8fcf5a91dd6264054781e9e6fa2c07efaa845a2b825 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Eve... | no | 0 | federal-spending-elon-and-doge-cut-in-first-6-months | Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | 66,381,493 | 66,381,493 |
d9862014799a182f9df73cae4518f00c5c21148e | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb9bbdd34304344dcc45803780a34c97d73a00133a5ecf70f63e1008b8abb2fca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999996022272009
3. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 20... | no | 0.000016 | how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2025 | Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? | 66,381,493 | 66,381,493 |
19dd0e2ff8ac0c690a85709c702915b72dc6de62 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc8f7efe4f5cf3c6d5b51cdd87cbd360e7f2a3b9999f6b8fa96d2dcd96e287141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999996022272009
2. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "McDonald's" during ... | no | 0.90389 | pepe-etf-in-2025 | Pepe ETF in 2025? | 66,381,493 | 66,381,493 |
2fa459fba356db80e38d20b1e2c4afe7d46bd32b | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xebfda84c91d3dafde3f49bd132aadc9e762b88023021806e7345cd526fc7e1fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Event: will-israel-invade-syria-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Mus... | no | 0 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | 66,381,493 | 66,381,493 |
657792486f3ce5fb28d412a6bd1f05282b72d009 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xfa6a3dcf3f25cc84d660b255793f9a2fc246c0b2e4ffeb51285dce46e075bded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress... | no | 0.982713 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 66,381,493 | 67,388,890 |
4474be8f86642243cc053e945f1cf4d95aa98a7c | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xa534e23dc53b02c9b5a0079bce7d96f906edb24204d201d963afeb66156de051 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $BONK be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-palisades-fire-spread-to-santa-monica-by-sunday | Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? | 66,550,839 | 66,550,839 |
5f270b6006d7a4166fe8a0a3b29fdf0173281f79 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xe888bcf29f885cc0e7b6b984211741af53ecbc2c336678e19cbcacf42fc10371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $BONK be listed first on Robinhood? | Event: next-coin-on-robinhood | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Quest... | yes | 0.000009 | will-palisades-fire-spread-to-malibu-by-sunday | Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? | 66,579,064 | 66,579,064 |
0119e8d475665c58cd5ab23cf67a67b4bdbdd963 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x87ea3f7c908e2ada980dd88221c7d02f756a56749f24089afb6e674d024c8e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "president" 15 or more times during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will KJP say "president" 30 or more times during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-whit... | no | 0 | yoon-arrested-by-next-friday | Yoon arrested by Friday? | 66,709,358 | 66,718,920 |
fb2027510d8528cc7dd3272b9ab7e094afef2bca | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x2c8c057fb67c777723019acd203b63feac37d34973815d11026a483bc2bba5aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "president" 30 or more times during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will KJP say "pardon" during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefi... | no | 0 | what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address | Will Biden say "peaceful transition" during farewell address? | 66,750,864 | 66,750,864 |
e2980bb5dacbe2e10e3c3ef8b3974f461468f98f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc1dfae9ff40a4ae4ec50c666a2c456ff3b45936a4acf9e2244773e9f80b9872a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will KJP say "pardon" during next press briefing? | Event: what-will-kjp-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Event: us-government-shutdown-before-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Azerb... | no | 0 | spacex-flight-test-7 | SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down? | 66,786,063 | 66,786,063 |
42aa0d9895a2e2a32bb117b1e2e7e83d2365a6c9 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x05abfe3cb89504134856c42c701bbe77b3f26fa3d4dfcbd7a3d8e76b143fd288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Event: us-government-shutdown-before-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9626865671641791
3. Questio... | no | 0 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? | 66,876,594 | 66,876,594 |
1ff6682c22d59407b92039046f9b09062ce48103 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x06676baf7fa01b419381015d22cf555c70ce0cf237b8b73706ebdb80b64eae96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9626865671641791
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 1-20 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confiden... | no | 0 | tiktok-removed-from-app-store-in-january | TikTok removed from App Store in January? | 66,876,594 | 66,876,594 |
f024e8d52f1b69a59e7f86fa492875cbed7550de | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x12852f3ccc565a833bc18418c8219268bf35e03e60bb50962469b5b05b1c6926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 1-20 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kai and Speed win Fortnite before midnight? | Event: ishowspeed-kai-cenat-win-fortnite-before-midnight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0 | tiktok-banned-in-2025 | TikTok banned in 2025? | 66,880,067 | 66,880,067 |
333e0859908ebc6e6aee890cbcae571c3f2799f5 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc8e3bb678b21e53326af5a9194c16bdc72be7e3a01697f62bed254c636711e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kai and Speed win Fortnite before midnight? | Event: ishowspeed-kai-cenat-win-fortnite-before-midnight | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-victory-rally | Will Trump say "TikTok" during victory rally? | 66,902,293 | 66,902,293 |
6aaca154a5bb4c3c3dc6ef42715c73f924123f86 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xec062773d9bcb38e22d673402ea20e895c764e0f85d8691c541fa896812c1948 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | 66,941,484 | 66,941,484 |
a8fb1abe5f57c749655313425c9ad2eeb61b21f6 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100-124 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 66,956,084 | 66,956,084 |
eadd08006fe626f848f35d622cf50c94280df3bc | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xe891ffde8993870a2e87e34eb1a9e8fb9e9628f90f0260c16fa629a25db148c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 125-149 tries? | Event: how-many-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9190174630589139
2. Question: Will 'Elden Ring' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-infrastructure-announcement | Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement? | 66,983,951 | 66,983,951 |
cc2682f3327c1b5ded438fc749a1ee8aa2fc7873 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x2314e7f043881010b65cb14908494dfdc8b5ec9416fac883d4940873f3a080b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Elden Ring' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Helldivers 2' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 0 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-2 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | 66,991,929 | 66,991,929 |
588fd8ddc83ce368c32570a325b7ae85e6953adb | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x9753836e7fc0d0b93615e09eb4e68c442913bb5a61ee869fa055512b18db004e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Helldivers 2' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 0.073848 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Tariff" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,033,084 | 67,068,319 |
649b94052cc42e127fcfd54515db7f9ad16fa185 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x014805048b937896d4c9fcbe79f477f169907b01a2abad21f1294de2add64e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.22106 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Border" 5 or more times during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,067,295 | 67,067,295 |
fa973e39d3be20cdefb72aef2130c876e5f5f80b | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x191d9229fa0d33d553e9627c6e6da7b758352f01ef1c4f6c2c3cdfbba410fcee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Satisfactory' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: ... | yes | 0.708448 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
e91081743ebe4c445fb5d507973619a802e31487 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x25509cc8fa699caf1963914fbd4d035594a3e5ad423c3104fa3c5de48d243df1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Satisfactory' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Liar's Bar' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choi... | yes | 0.388996 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Greenland" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
d571e8efa5f6cdb824301e9f1c61a902ce6efaff | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x5076aadc143875fa8434d26eb6335234b7cf29d7aa8ade49b1b5f06822d978b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Liar's Bar' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-most-innovative-gameplay | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | Event: next-senate-majority-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.219212 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Barron" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
e2c54ace4a9f5ac74f5c1ea866689b9079b0951f | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0x86ddf7a3cfb4000e263338e0ed724b51d7f25dbc54dd2af19efc971c01f1ebe0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? | Event: next-senate-majority-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2307638061... | yes | 0.598227 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "capital gains" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
5420440bff64e289db562d0a77013b3980c72c07 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xb433f38bcedd3c120ec7c2049407e32f63aeaab3e56e396ddba25c56b84d51bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.23076380617476394
2. Question: Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice... | no | 0.278791 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "DOGE" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
d41fa6beaad7174c0d8c7815741a5286f1461577 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xbe37a3cb4f113fa049887e79938d238f01015e7fa107ce796eccfd35f6ed12fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sebastian Stan win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.139785 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "reserve" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
bb2404d2c7d6a4f1b25e69d6e002906698df4688 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xc22b271732f78cf9065bf54a68582de089463d143efa9f0442605c0998ed6f99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 0.44872 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Stargate" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
9bc4d0f5d9abf3864436cdef1d571f1bac860e5c | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xcc5a06c3b79f72f1abfd6bb4e360f627180fcb723a42f273ee625c4d6e65d241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniel Craig win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0 | trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
7763c0dd1cb9bf6b124d5c60144e9fd1ca347d60 | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xdddae6c0f1fc8c15c9c93585defdbbb7e354216b112bc13d1173e8f2fc708b4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Craig win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? | Event: golden-globes-best-actor-drama | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.902463 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
0d88bbbaf5738899ebcf793c4ca34333cd163efc | 0x2139ff880571f8223a56544ca433756b8d014b34 | 0xde22b3345a92e30984b1e0de7719cc4287827fe12ac14705f64efc0ad8d4b0e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Event: federal-spending-elon-and-doge-cut-in-first-6-months | C... | yes | 0.05368 | what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Will Trump say "Putin" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | 67,068,319 | 67,068,319 |
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