sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a386c7c52c999bbcc54ca9bc87428fee75dcd01f | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will G2 Esports win the 2025 VALORANT Masters Toronto Tournament? | Event: valorant-masters-toronto-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-22 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Paper Rex win the 2025 VALORANT Masters... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,935,679 | 73,935,679 |
5e1e413a0f7fb4b0fe340b6d43c194777923caad | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xc45f6f5fcbc814bdcaf46b16eccfec63cef615cc364d75ad3f49f74e0afd3615 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Thunder | Event: nba-ind-okc-2025-06-22 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Paper Rex win the 2025 VALORANT Masters Toronto Tournament? | Event: valorant-masters-toronto-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MV... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,935,679 | 73,935,679 |
5cbc9137d3b40c4af1d88e5fe4e76f445ee4e3e4 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xcddc4839d7f41cd37d0aaf0a4b8336178ae799b9d166f25fe0c35f4a61682d8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paper Rex win the 2025 VALORANT Masters Toronto Tournament? | Event: valorant-masters-toronto-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Braves vs. Mets | Even... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,935,679 | 73,935,679 |
6b567288f9b8ad4ec4b238cdd6b35d2f88e98de2 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x00f3408a9ff6996ab0b00e2d53adae2f75f9f4d51cfb58d700d97c2062b19cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Braves vs. Mets | Event: mlb-atl-nym-2025-06-24 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-06-25 | Choice: dodgers | Co... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Will India win the match? | 73,980,092 | 73,980,092 |
2a6650c984c1e3b0a78873bba8cf3f0f25007742 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x090d929220ed6407975a79d5fc2c8c6714a362e8dbcb205ec3e7a493080a6667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Braves vs. Mets | Event: mlb-atl-nym-2025-06-24 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-06-25 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice:... | yes | 1 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,980,092 | 73,980,092 |
855b3f67a482af89c70dc419449dbe53cd709d0c | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xd5449f6390e31feb35947e73f9a2f2c3ffc6a0b575b5f245cb926a47b9e4590a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-lad-col-2025-06-25 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01225433195248065
3. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitatio... | magic | 0 | nba-okc-orl-2025-07-15 | Thunder vs. Magic | 74,004,146 | 74,015,039 |
5071f51eeadc8737550a64c7a789ebf8eb02eacb | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x2c5fdbbde35f61e365627cdecb188be7d609aa4ecf022aee192b334ae7b709ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01225433195248065
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Athletics vs. ... | cloud9 | 1 | league-of-legends-flyquest-vs-cloud9 | League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 | 74,012,918 | 74,018,243 |
725e60f1668b9091fc4195767331d6aca8af87a9 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x4209f35294c3564777c80b21ff1787012f3ae9161732c9943951498b6fd504dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Athletics vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-oak-nyy-2025-06-27 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission? | Event: ufc-31... | ige | 0.536142 | ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3 | UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull | 74,077,180 | 74,175,049 |
4f32a1bded5924d1eb9d73e194090cb7e40daca4 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x5eb6db43a90df592419fd624a322cdd47a5dac15fcb3e37e03155b6f48a89997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Athletics vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-oak-nyy-2025-06-27 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | E... | lakers | 0.464923 | nba-den-lal-2025-07-18 | Nuggets vs. Lakers | 74,134,875 | 74,134,875 |
d9289c3cc950b809531f4c0bb90038330263fb15 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xf9414b83a55594879ea98d95dabf07405489574d2c86e0ddf2be21b2b1aa20ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Opensea t... | t1 | 0.567364 | league-of-legends-t1-vs-agal | League of Legends: T1 vs. AG.AL | 74,146,618 | 74,146,618 |
1d329897090d4e6a8278978f310002fcf0f3f0d1 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x57b634fe421b49ad2ca1a8ca801fc7b0a6a0ffd954996308e76674f087acba68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | Event: ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Opensea token market cap (FDV) $3-5b one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | holland | 0 | ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3 | UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez | 74,175,045 | 74,175,045 |
f83b09fe7011b5ed4da8a8edcbe03de9f5afc6d4 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xc567e58356c82b97e0f2327a65ad235ed2da9fd6a01a7275197682bcd510dfe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Opensea token market cap (FDV) $3-5b one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-juventus-to-advance | Choice: juv... | yankees | 1 | mlb-nyy-tor-2025-07-21 | Yankees vs. Blue Jays | 74,248,938 | 74,248,938 |
f7e1944298a538bdef9c09994e8295fbf4c79c55 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xe75de803c7f1e45be25c84728bfb93bdc149b61a5d3b2ee51f7b1a917d025104 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-juventus-to-advance | Choice: juventus | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choi... | lgd | 1 | league-of-legends-lgd-gaming-vs-ninjas-in-pyjamas | League of Legends: LGD Gaming vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas | 74,253,178 | 74,253,178 |
1ddf7ece7e04326ab8550b2736276b97ab09eb2c | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xec0932fd934de22b55a17d7bb58e5bd843b4fa122c183ff60584aceb64d4ff7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: OpenSea token market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidenc... | rays | 0.265815 | mlb-cws-tb-2025-07-23 | White Sox vs. Rays | 74,334,052 | 74,334,052 |
f0bb12e9086d07ea6d50c3d35ca911b056999507 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x8a753154ba90b54b5d3c3657e5275e3937df65f6dd838809e2aa765478e66ea7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: OpenSea token market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Opensea token launch by July? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decr... | red sox | 0.814902 | mlb-lad-bos-2025-07-25 | Dodgers vs. Red Sox | 74,409,543 | 74,413,387 |
4f8948509e28ff0db91f7fa42d2c58033eb85c70 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xe1bd286f622d26ce1791f44c30e4c0d5b54880b468010d2a2e603b94a70e0579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Opensea token launch by July? | Event: opensea-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: Fl... | whittaker | 0.243178 | ufc-fight-night-whittaker-vs-de-ridder | UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder | 74,410,757 | 74,448,095 |
445ca6ffff2152678cbeaf6aff4b5c24d124901e | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x6625d31b1b48b2ce8ce9849d083c9d39bd814dbe646f38f35179eaa48728b7b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-chelsea-to-advance | Choice: chelsea | Confidence: 0... | barriault | 1 | ufc-fight-night-whittaker-vs-de-ridder | UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault | 74,445,248 | 74,445,248 |
3789174cdde78e2edad8c9359db1a628b3e368de | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x80a9795e6a87e78539e3334dce934cc71758417c97a8f00a513e5927323d7ca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-chelsea-to-advance | Choice: chelsea | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: MSI Playoffs: Bilibili Gaming vs. FlyQuest | Event: bilibili-gaming-vs-flyquest | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.0
... | mcghee | 1 | ufc-fight-night-whittaker-vs-de-ridder | UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGhee | 74,446,066 | 74,446,066 |
1071d8555f2ad63a2a416abf3abb83feda436eb3 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x129626aed716188e62a80b7bbbe01b0bf15a53337afb7bf1909163df91395cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MSI Playoffs: Bilibili Gaming vs. FlyQuest | Event: bilibili-gaming-vs-flyquest | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Lakers vs. Spurs | Event: nba-lal-sas-2025-07-08 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: world-test-championshi... | funplus | 1 | league-of-legends-bilibili-gaming-vs-funplus-phoenix | League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix | 74,467,539 | 74,467,539 |
219425cf6be77faad429e2acf510c7d72c3621b6 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xe4985255ea87629425d94e7dffa5efb9bb0fb5cdbdb51be4f09a24e9605bc8d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lakers vs. Spurs | Event: nba-lal-sas-2025-07-08 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) | Event: f... | yes | 1 | cricket-england-vs-india-4th-test-match | Will England vs. India end in a draw? | 74,504,594 | 74,504,594 |
880c460760dc13ffe5f28424cab8924cb44b9b62 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xe8d6e37d99d993f9879b2d2f3d2491c81c89996b75c832e8c7b61ad24a5eb135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-real-madrid-to-advance | Choice: real madrid | Confidence: 0.4697855750... | rangers | 0.247996 | mlb-tex-sea-2025-07-31 | Rangers vs. Mariners | 74,651,549 | 74,651,549 |
fb9959e78a29c838e1417c759ba4273f35f90021 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xb77f13df1298cd1dc950bc4bc598ad9055eb52007f5f294c3321c887e35ea24b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-real-madrid-to-advance | Choice: real madrid | Confidence: 0.4697855750487329
2. Question: MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1 | Event: msi-playoffs-geng-vs-t1 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 0.5214345763126537
3. Que... | furia | 0 | iem-cologne-mouz-vs-furia | IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIA | 74,673,764 | 74,688,479 |
02cbf8e7c3916ef90596d5246e19f6b0a883bbd6 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x322ab6b0612db3efdca16af980bc033cd6c9f6d7f0bc94de8750d79408466279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1 | Event: msi-playoffs-geng-vs-t1 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 0.5214345763126537
2. Question: Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2962962962962963
3. Question: Mets vs. Royals |... | thundertalk | 0.072567 | league-of-legends-ninjas-in-pyjamas-vs-thundertalk-gaming | League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. ThunderTalk Gaming | 74,824,829 | 74,829,116 |
d95f52dc1359fc83d9ee5072be4db6254bae1b3e | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x26d925be8ab19c8341410fec3994d4df3eb58cc9a73372a5e0d337709d680c70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2962962962962963
2. Question: Mets vs. Royals | Event: mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-11 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend | Even... | anyone's legend | 0.418126 | league-of-legends-invictus-gaming-vs-anyones-legend | League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend | 74,870,853 | 74,870,853 |
bcc5749f6da324ef49a104a5483ab04657d19212 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x118c012ad90884f634064bfc3b295f4fc682c547624558697198875590492e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Royals | Event: mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-11 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend | Event: msi-playoffs-t1-vs-anyones-legend | Choice: legend | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025... | anders | 0.636418 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-433 | UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. Duncan | 74,980,089 | 75,009,394 |
8eeb91c05d44fd789956dfd7f2bf77aa4dd98deb | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x28655684a85c4699ddd0dfcc02fa481281c81a28ac0b98aba8bab7ace8bfb60d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Anyone's Legend | Event: msi-playoffs-t1-vs-anyones-legend | Choice: legend | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05735276442408676
3. Question: Will No... | osbourne | 0.531024 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-433 | UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. Osbourne | 74,980,901 | 74,980,901 |
c81e55c25a8f1667b0b501543ce8d7c450d761d3 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x4d79fe5fd28f62621e94d2a34f832ea7b714ee922d5f8ae5fd2d26a2460dbf58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anyone's Legend win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05735276442408676
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Taylor Fritz... | dolidze | 0 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-433 | UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez | 75,010,916 | 75,018,825 |
b3c8c69924f210de984df0a5c9ab0cd53dcbf4b3 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xabeeec06bf0567b3610d3cead97630c1334047a848747ae8c4e37f0038c409e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025... | giants | 0 | mlb-sd-sf-2025-08-11 | Padres vs. Giants | 75,095,524 | 75,095,524 |
5e922c86ebc751a64acc3e217a873b591fb658ec | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x9db0896e08b84f0cd0036dae54d81501f0b135b24a3601b525fa88b384cb3054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09462266179918982
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon... | cannonier | 0 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page | 75,300,440 | 75,307,644 |
13433a8ee4bc6a89aeb12711de791464f018fcaa | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x8e3e86945f8b40c18803e12a12083cc872d2dfc62a01fc49479ed084f5ce8bfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09462266179918982
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbled... | patriots | 0.245073 | nfl-ne-nyg-2025-08-21 | Patriots vs. Giants | 75,498,291 | 75,499,239 |
11ae82e95fd2b72e4f50c12db83e1116e2e5a98c | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0xae47ae337f6164c885744748b1d849955dbd692655f51d9ba8f488290af41075 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-wo... | borjas | 0 | ufc-fight-night-walker-vs-zhang | UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Borjas | 75,555,537 | 75,555,537 |
3977ec683f0e998f0c16655a357757f0e2e5fa71 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x4462ba31495064469e762c0280391c96ab96cc824b667c56d237673c9551832e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-ind... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-cin-lad-2025-08-25 | Reds vs. Dodgers | 75,660,625 | 75,669,861 |
a73604fa19510712beb196ffe87d85bcf114718d | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x62eb69d6fc5ec6699be745f287aa1a305662b7f8f65a160d2c60d4dee671f94c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: m... | funplus phoenix | 0 | league-of-legends-top-esports-vs-funplus-phoenix | League of Legends: Top Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix | 75,682,191 | 75,682,191 |
861ed88b065e02e42c7207131369f193a64757ed | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x325123847a74e3d133d6069b5c5f62c718896a70fa5467d3b8de8745820093ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: cricket-england-vs-india-3rd-test | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Magic | Event: nba-okc-orl-2025-07-15... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-cin-lad-2025-08-27 | Reds vs. Dodgers | 75,738,880 | 75,781,105 |
072c10bda9452c1d4efd41032d8a9ecbc4814a07 | 0x22c701222a786516857612fb981c8d26e862ca3e | 0x811694413fa9885562a3bc3eee116d00775429abd27dc73dd0ae463e2ecd52a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | Event: mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Magic | Event: nba-okc-orl-2025-07-15 | Choice: magic | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: League of Legends: FlyQuest vs. Cloud9 | Event: league-of-legends-... | kt rolster | 0.42752 | league-of-legends-geng-vs-kt-rolster-125 | League of Legends: Gen.G vs. KT Rolster | 75,754,640 | 75,754,640 |
df7f785f3533b4bfe954a81128f817026095732a | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x01b2b1c96aecd654af1bfa93db5149f95aa25073960bb6f759f011d143d4dc6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election?
Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | 63,786,641 | 63,786,641 |
95f109a0de205b0c80a68b4bae04e067ff6fbaee | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x6482b5ba050ccce8a118a925029c98b18ed83255effbb42d256dd29b4cbb9ddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?
Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuan... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-election | Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | 63,786,641 | 63,786,641 |
c3d3c86cdcda17f546061a6659e952de79407289 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x79dbc87e9057e8ffa396e474f88c6f7b2c22f9169aee0439cebd8b3edc2510df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Maria do Rosário win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,786,641 | 63,786,641 |
99f1071789afcde3369e53b380da6a69df01fd62 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,786,641 | 63,786,641 |
a6c5b709d4714a9c6b32c8d185c01744e1b03f34 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xc713e8ff2c9cb86a3ac37a2e92666ef62ebb89093a29b0f6e2c43f345a68eda6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25? | 63,786,641 | 63,786,641 |
7fd3815794b701a408bac3eaf9250fff8d95fdaa | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x47ac1e1483628fbff1dd27b56e540b84348a86bb967f6ee3d584aaad56d6e4f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | ucl-girona-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Slovan Bratislava beat Girona? | 63,786,685 | 63,786,685 |
4f9e4d5c49c9c27262c008bb4cc573e88b09659e | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x8abf82eb4647a787edf71dd017852e4bc8219c4e833e3013f861ed989fde38f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | connecticut-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut Presidential Election? | 64,038,902 | 64,038,902 |
825c4032e12561a73dd9350a8087eb97248b444b | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x99cae1b83694726803dd03dea2465fee332ba788b8a9d24e42e9ddd5391c6b9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | nevada-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election? | 64,440,907 | 64,440,907 |
51a08c05446918e59cac0373cd3b52981b61628d | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | how-many-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season-2024 | Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | 65,173,637 | 65,173,637 |
4e84b9d71e4f3541155a7f283a8c17cbb688e439 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xd3570077ea2b151a993c323751d719785886460662358c4caf4e95434e581331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? | 65,173,637 | 65,173,637 |
d57a948f30ab015b30e2a2cd6971db6a10ae9d79 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x09889f121b252d412baf356cb7288ecaaa78fb605676ca7f3c5f1004ace5fad2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | ghana-legislative-election | Will another party win the most seats in the Ghanaian parliamentary election? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
5c451d9a86b07e74ab43c72fc6a4c971d640475c | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x21689d1c243520bcaff1f0a9d7e45bd63da4f86fbb6a3aec93008e17d437d2c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
e1d4b1be385f4531bb7192ebd638abc7c2edc365 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x24ee858fba5f91b94e6278e71b8e1fdaabaf2a3680700d670f42aaa1c5f40179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | november-inflation | Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
574c7b9b648a00998f9a1ccfa181dfb7a193df90 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x6cc3acc1350dd626ffb1516f1c2fc26fc8a4209b3cf4de9e723e0bc3663d1a71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | ghana-presidential-election | Will someone else be the next President of Ghana? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
77085e9433fb06932ade002195447f655dd6513f | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x9fdc4c7b35db7e7299a9f41c2b76644dd9d2923852da5881035f0bbec2d5e1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
9cbae9405b845cc8a961a9a70299b2d02a2e1bb4 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xae43e53d8516dd644c2b294c6fcdc8b345e905352672c7f6cf1ebfee127d9409 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | which-state-will-kamala-win-by-the-largest-margin | Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
f6181f8e95bfc5d8bf6c01c66658a4f6ddd29923 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xb0c8ce59d533d5733ec0f8fe3122609e01b39470eb81fa9bb4e19ec461326f33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | >50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
c51a4e2768e588c9af575559f3aa5463e82b8fd7 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xf8c6c4704c68db1d81146b7214bc2e3e887630248e59b900ae75cf598c110ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | 65,989,950 | 65,989,950 |
3848f79eadf0957d101bc9c707f263c49c619b8c | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x02c8326d2a5e3b67d97b2f642f7d5c032a4f633c29f732856fa144d0d91fdb3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? | 66,308,580 | 66,308,580 |
ddac4d58e3c6b2f5bbf19da37ea4d3453ad7bbe5 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,308,580 | 66,308,580 |
643180c30fc629a5bf07973c9fe688945444907c | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xb6b07ed97d10051f2a63821e47ff46d71d4f479fa255ce8a6e07d5325ac06a68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? | 66,308,580 | 66,308,580 |
331b6af557221e9421efe1980bb7bbe4f5a2b346 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,404,397 | 68,404,397 |
cb7d4ee36519481e3014adff47a9b8f5f0fc98f3 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0xf7050a33a8444389ef1800e4476b43a987ff72668be0b616a4b457f5ba944a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,408,566 | 69,408,566 |
c75bfd4c8787e448007da3d276b86fcadc19c659 | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x27cfabf50780161dcc82328dcc9f67d122824548fbf3b4aebcd08d98fdd76a4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-quebec | Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election? | 71,396,876 | 71,396,876 |
2c65f08627fafe7047134583f28f675ca7d8411f | 0x22d56285a6c4e258f2ede3c960e369d454631ac0 | 0x9ed20a8e6a304cbb73d8fa749f703562d766d50357a2b4cbd39a1f1822c0ae6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another candidate win the Mozambican presidential election? | Event: mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DSVL win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-lithuanian-electio... | no | 1 | la-liga-2nd-place | Will another team finish second in La Liga? | 72,586,914 | 72,586,914 |
c0972ae02cb14706c8ad7872bd2e9ef68fa0129a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x7a462d38e2f8f63f3d9571bdc6ca38e2155c8aafd805e2ad9a28ee367994b1b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10?
Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | 71,336,459 | 71,356,686 |
1d5e4e637c985782590e9842a74a3850ba172c0d | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf6000cbc08563f93dc42eafc7a5c5948e0f360fa766b666e922733ff8a5e10bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11?
Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | down | 0 | hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | 71,336,460 | 71,397,034 |
a74394bb12ce90b715ce60064b5439b0ca6063f0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xae3703118ca255078e3cfa89aeec50800fdd476306c99b12f5330716ee7de11c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10?
Ev... | down | 1 | ethbtc-up-or-down-on-may-10 | ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | 71,356,905 | 71,356,905 |
5c7eb4fc5fec5cce596431005c83aec4f5c886dc | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xd1dce82510db1daf2b6e4751582bbd572a36303a476fa840ef6cc49213069c27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | down | 0 | hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-12 | Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 12? | 71,356,924 | 71,440,324 |
4cc7c2a821bdf30bd5d4b5b66719f006f2218f38 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x27b5fc521b716e0d007dc3a0e4adfdc61772c7f1b23a4e8934bf9151d1a8430c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | yes | 0.00012 | what-will-elon-say-during-saudi-us-investment-forum-on-may-13 | Will Elon say "Saudi" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | 71,445,665 | 71,461,955 |
c87999fcfe85906f4e9dee7d6cad18c7880c8054 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x2602aa773da47d17b995dad644ed0bf690293534586930ba6e924ddab8f03305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | yes | 0.001772 | what-will-elon-say-during-saudi-us-investment-forum-on-may-13 | Will Elon say "David Sacks" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | 71,447,161 | 71,447,650 |
34619264328531eddb9cd1db691010af27bacaf5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf641646d7f8dd3eadde37981a3486cee19dfda4cbe733c2349aa5037836768f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2025 | Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? | 71,450,954 | 71,450,954 |
ee41f6f30e8c6ce4801e93f31ba76e7ae921c5dc | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x4189da28204ad1afba90aa57aebf996a46325822a37b8884a57a1edbf915958b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | down | 0 | fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-14 | Fartcoin Up or Down on May 14? | 71,453,176 | 71,589,033 |
07d2901114715a466792dd524342170ad95ef0f3 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x2a9490bbe2bb6dff3c52c1d5a89329c539acf826ad27bf6a6e8836be9155a4a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-hannity-interview-on-may-13 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his May 13 interview? | 71,497,550 | 71,497,550 |
764cb23acf32a41169a211a3b8cf63b06ab9c3f6 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x108ab06cad53ce6942b70c7213e0f706c82ca17d34c3dbb9bba920c5b75d0572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | down | 0 | hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 16? | 71,507,955 | 71,600,436 |
b0b3e75ccdf44e119ff5ac035fa7f7ff7da77341 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x12ebe8c18be2da4a51d9695f1ccff84096a6a4c60b1a17d1beb46527584288dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | down | 0 | fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Fartcoin Up or Down on May 16? | 71,507,965 | 71,600,436 |
807122c9d17dfc3965ab69a1200e274c72c90ad1 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x2be2a1ab649d15386a52a823dcbc0bfad91bda2cb7bb04574ee55006a5aff296 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | yes | 0.843744 | what-will-trump-say-during-baier-interview-on-may-16 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | 71,573,304 | 71,573,304 |
b130a82b07fcc269168f59572bb06ab3f07ece7a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x361bb4011269cd8b2ae0e8f54eb28b4e614f19c3dfe362f399f419596b745d1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0.722341 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-442 | Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? | 71,792,664 | 71,792,664 |
32ccd415df40ca88aff62ab4d6dc35996137a1e5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xea5ecc1581fa4cfb783d058f66e9b030dbab10b5e9c9a503673995bd8071b83c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40m views on day 1? | 71,943,098 | 71,943,098 |
c36a2c1506b027f1ee8d078175f465c32b0e89d6 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xb336420a9982e7defa480fdd382836875dcd1c49fc8b16f013f5c3b6b56d86c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-at-princeton-commencement-speech | Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25? | 71,952,986 | 71,952,986 |
5d5e89fe67a638b89525f027b7fa3dfff98803ca | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x98a3f879f02d6f45f61df95e9581b99602a9edbadf7906a293d41b6f914d70e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20m views on day 1? | 71,971,766 | 71,971,766 |
890911cadc498fa6da4ac28429bbfe394876b7a3 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xac355d65ca89a0f1534fbafd1b775c0eab59d3cea7f36cc13b5bf2696982de99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 71,971,768 | 71,971,768 |
682d9aa22643f74668acf31d4ca9640654007eb0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x80fd8ef4f1bd454eb6cb3ab1865cbae80774183d6401f0291488526d8ab065b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? | 71,971,772 | 71,971,772 |
df79162f2f8b256ef379c3e60865039b77950198 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x247adf17049ce47d4aac459d25a6a78643858a822a29bb87914b1215bbb06229 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | 71,972,354 | 71,972,354 |
0b9452b0e5bea02def114a452221513f079bedef | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf13f9fad342fa8487f8b3ecf5964a338da4e2feae7ee5dafb9d1ff58c6319260 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0.000838 | what-will-jd-vance-say-during-bitcoin-2025-conference-on-may-28th | Will JD Vance say "Decentralized" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? | 72,032,499 | 72,035,207 |
60801bc29b146be67a0b4d530aeb12fbd48a6bba | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x8ce7f7ad8f0ec35ea11d7968b94b1434094ae323c1f5e6a2233434fd3910d000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-236 | Will Trump say "Apple" this week? | 72,054,376 | 72,054,376 |
268303a2ad93c747ae0ec7c7a8b1d9c65bae5dda | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x0834dc8747c0c631c2d38cd752837899948461152f65a80c4745405e6834cf65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 29? | 72,146,848 | 72,175,099 |
e03512939651244c558facb6ac6eb99a9a520a11 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x25e7636133d05bd4627cdde231cfc22c68a50daf61b82030e8233c3a69303db3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | 72,146,852 | 72,146,852 |
4473827a30966ca8dcd19afdaf15fdebf68234e4 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x407f2570668630df2965906bfcca7e2c2b488bee26fbf4a8b28205598ef7ae3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May 29? | 72,147,023 | 72,147,023 |
e48a272c4f35bf28697f3288c48ccd4d97899fb9 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xbb6d7a0d2508facebaeaa15123fee4577bd1080dcc1501abe11a7bf7551926d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 29? | 72,151,568 | 72,175,099 |
11b159fa830a1e39572c2eb36d1b017a861b3343 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x2e50c4d6442cd50e353dc2e54c0578d3437c8aed2ec24e633d6f18b3f5ca897f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | 72,161,833 | 72,161,833 |
b9bb5a6534f9a1f43cada464101308bfa06299a0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x7757393869ea46409da4f0231414b02a57054459334d8b39aa6049f74eac76ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on May 30? | 72,175,099 | 72,175,099 |
9e4a2532167642741d6137ed5201f6d772707532 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x7ce83bd5adc4612ed74696288cd1956b640babbb16c0cfc8cfd8a8a98f83c210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 29? | 72,175,099 | 72,175,099 |
6c6e5cc0834c04f46c208f622784eceecb82e202 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x8d788ba57e86889d31575339d23230f5b61c79d6876f8c7ea2e014c121b8c895 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on May 30? | 72,175,099 | 72,175,099 |
e1612778cc10b6ba72988a02032eab2c19ba9047 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf9f5898649ad89125898a9bdfa4a124555d6c95afdff06465c10be30b6c6b19f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on May 30? | 72,175,099 | 72,175,099 |
24d9cc2d5d2023a7351298b77412ae7524cf9298 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x8cd9827de9082148bf3e8c42949a614fc2853373310049cd32b2ffe41402f300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 10? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-10-556 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | 72,267,505 | 72,267,505 |
cf9708b749067b6d2481776da39f04feb4f892b5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 11? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-11 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc-up-or-down-on-may-10 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 12? | Event: hyperliquid-up-... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 72,315,731 | 72,321,618 |
3207d59b16d2f02efa8e369a5b0d5e40d7aa98d9 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xe310c38d9824e870dc5c2f15dcf0af82e1858b5666146ee200f0b36e6fceb76a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 10? | Event: ethbtc-up-or-down-on-may-10 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 12? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-12 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elon say "Saudi" during Saudi-US investment forum on ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? | 72,355,206 | 72,355,206 |
f0ed782b2d0e5c692931b043c7837230e93b2f9e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x2c01ea0b0a3d91e4fe2c4aec3ef54d21d48ca35486f23eb060d30f4a5b69cbc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 12? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-12 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon say "Saudi" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | Event: what-will-elon-say-during-saudi-us-investment-forum-on-may-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0001... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | 72,399,050 | 72,399,050 |
1e5d966fad13da2efeaded85a23018e67516d3e7 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x54ae26e70d2ace6369d22d3ea51610a780de3ad0f251fc9f3f1b640520ec69ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon say "Saudi" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | Event: what-will-elon-say-during-saudi-us-investment-forum-on-may-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00011975904795540067
2. Question: Will Elon say "David Sacks" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | Event: what-will-e... | no | 0.172125 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | 72,422,446 | 72,678,425 |
c93b03a24fadac04ea8eeefa31466064b48d2b3e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x3cab539b7797b6b81369042cfb98af27143893385edd3332f0b9442b4f32aefe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon say "David Sacks" during Saudi-US investment forum on May 13? | Event: what-will-elon-say-during-saudi-us-investment-forum-on-may-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0017718549574505253
2. Question: Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? | Event: which-countries-will-donal... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | 72,446,990 | 72,446,990 |
66592b6fc8e9ccb5a9c453550f6d735a5dacee67 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x6009cd63be1742b38865bdaeeb98d39e15bd62be57d51e4788b822bd8576364f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? | Event: which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fartcoin Up or Down on May 14? | Event: fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-14 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Million"... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | 72,455,798 | 72,455,798 |
196e8c07e879fde9a1683a573e8e96d115d9a820 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x8ab070685d8939def7cc876617fc3a00a4597f900181f32eb2514db139dba933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fartcoin Up or Down on May 14? | Event: fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-14 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his May 13 interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-hannity-interview-on-may-13 | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | 72,455,800 | 72,455,800 |
d07102c7873f7a57be25df1004391cc4723eae63 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x45abd0cf43d9f089050e7637a86ca199f12b23d8feb7f263132e141fe1048007 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his May 13 interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-hannity-interview-on-may-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 16? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Choice: down | C... | no | 0.000002 | will-elon-apologize-to-trump-by-monday-379 | Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? | 72,514,022 | 72,519,072 |
9989f58d6911f72e5ae6ebb1063c841a715feb88 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xdd7f4847854d34c7fa63cface52815f3539b978c137d3cbf7a387598a7ffae87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 16? | Event: hyperliquid-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fartcoin Up or Down on May 16? | Event: fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 ... | yes | 0.21875 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 10? | 72,572,374 | 72,620,306 |
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