sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0ae6f4426455faa6d8b6a0961107fc2c72f95998 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x47c9a51dd1e87410d89eb0c1e3994c5c4d8cc4116f5b362f9327c06ba373a7c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,471 | 71,680,471 |
8775c9103b10ba5e6ee89087b71cb1ab4f8b4e7a | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xf83684a358cf8635d5d632610b33d5352d25d14e7517affb6cdbaad6ee768fbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,472 | 71,680,472 |
44ca0573d7ad0fca89f1fb0a4c6a4ede180dfa2f | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,474 | 71,680,474 |
28fd1c8ad2393580a346f0d966c83f307645f80a | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x10c67b5db2cf01b838843390ee2a8ae553049fcc5d5cdd2cc381923d690f96a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,475 | 71,680,475 |
e928c22b1c70284061b153ee428bfa10fe8210ae | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x4b080093a8b8eade06f36e577ca260e2bcc37c7fcfe0304036d6dfd051825507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,478 | 71,680,478 |
e38752d125d8a83f562f741986f4f849890c4462 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xd43a90b2547d8ae5902180c5880ce94490e4c6eea5be3a78270456ce8e58bdb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,480 | 71,680,480 |
1279616c00d1566919ee65ca570f5d5b32af37da | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,482 | 71,680,482 |
47c504ad9814da12727541425cafb77282fec658 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xc531ab3ca41abb7d9c8a77601565670a7f491f66de4dd897fbe560831f3a04b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,483 | 71,680,483 |
4d6c202e96ebab6b0cc8f542ee1b22c6d0a1728b | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x54a7ccadce22f5dcd774ef26ede3ee6b50b0c7e0b5d1ad0be7ba98780f897b51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,484 | 71,680,484 |
ae89acf136f4a72b21bfb7e023ea5515fc2ecf29 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x26d926b4a7d09c900240d3523227f82b5f8d5fc22a31c97e4e1a144e22761403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09?
Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,792,593 | 78,792,593 |
b477112f671ab56b9f78e89c77658ba439475f0a | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x83c3219f7e6226329af9c0c641dd3cfacf5601f104a8c8c4cfaef70e976a58e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?
Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...,... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | 78,792,785 | 78,792,785 |
6783515e4f15041ad84244da625c38e5ac602c56 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x29a4c06c6b7a756f01f616098fd9f775abfba2fb0dff01c0005cdf0ad9548385 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09?
Event: sea... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-sas-2025-11-09 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | 78,801,138 | 78,801,138 |
fb9073d460ba8c4e185604324a4ca9bf613e8a5a | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xec6b7069bc3c123dbb6e267ba6d49b1813e4d4d72fcea728fd5c89418f3264d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | bun-fre-pau-2025-11-09 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,711 | 78,806,711 |
1e7ec3aa4aa60cb34c21bf9a15dca06c4849162b | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xcd11f162d2e5c41463dfbead35dee06ecd590f54fa91a924e7fa1eea8104242d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | nor-san-tro-2025-11-09 | Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-09? | 78,808,837 | 78,808,837 |
d9bc470685bb296dc5a1278bdcd34094d7b2845a | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xeec5753bde5137d8a76b75e973b8e3ceb80d3e0125fb4357dff9063d3c7f105f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,290 | 78,809,290 |
8e259166f18f76e7c3a86b0049fa308bc4d2cbb3 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x248dc6be400ef8cdf8a9542c55c012ae1df951eaa2f4dc24d26106cb4d17b66d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | no | 0.041096 | epl-cry-bri-2025-11-09 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,344 | 78,809,344 |
430c0c62d3eda1f58cad832ed99c8173f22ed82c | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xe86048878c2d8f6c99162feb57070ac4a441fdd3a54888fa1406644cbab858dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,359 | 78,809,359 |
ac81db09a5e4d7b9264a5b02717133cf9c0ca0be | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x2a2c1ad33e5ada4bd6c3cfa5ffe8782dd176eb08a3e62067a7bb7ba3a3bba8e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,328 | 78,810,328 |
661aec139700a6c399c1a3e055c611d641cb9ff5 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xe73edadf8c145ebf8414e9a92b55040345a77aade693bf8c800201c5fa88bc3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,328 | 78,810,328 |
c420064ae048a7e60f782b8ea61ed1601809a1a6 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x536a3d173b9ea28c7ce8f9e2fdb7c0f7e770c5d8dec20f8336a98088a2689e51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | tur-sam-eyu-2025-11-09 | Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,721 | 78,810,721 |
6164e3174c86c8f0b6bbc1081439b4e2be167da7 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x938e1394347bce94687cf8cc9022a456bc7c8bb3e90e9e0b2c6a83489505a5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,721 | 78,810,721 |
1f05c8075fef20f73c0878de50ea0c936bc0058d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x9ee33240c84e0e9595973f27fd7b2cadce304190f67fe3c8fc675e50c94ba1e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | 78,814,767 | 78,814,767 |
d3fe7cd5f047bc1d5bfd7dc2b5ae6ae553e24a8b | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,828,108 | 78,828,108 |
769cbdc111c84d5478601049d4bf5c67ad1494f2 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x17bd35bd21a7e660b11223e730e62b4304a37af8053941808633f1771d6b0bbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-09? | 78,828,137 | 78,828,137 |
5b45a5f4cb4aacffac230dc9f1545e2e2a8646a4 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x6f642357f335c9169ea2eaadf1a6aadc38704583a4c16cd240619f9f6dea8d03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? | 78,869,678 | 78,869,678 |
9493f55a46afef1e279dc4c146973c2342fd105e | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xb2ed04420f8dea58cb2f062b11040659f52021ad31f9e3f3b8fb007b7d3548c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-10? | 78,869,678 | 78,869,678 |
66549f47fcfc33d746a06d25a24df06e90652446 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xa27e61accc8e4c64a1ea78fc99f30dea56f3ad950f2634174d1e75aac7982509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09? | 78,932,627 | 78,932,627 |
e92cf49c3aeae49d5ee882b510f48d6a84aa17ba | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x47c0c9a47f01159bc2a64d4dc6f6bac6f0aff4248d433e1d2d8be46d513f24a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fl1-ang-aja-2025-11-09 | Will Angers SCO vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? | 78,932,628 | 78,932,628 |
c164bf06bb54739d235f5efde00a2bf7878219d9 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xc31740fab5b5960f2c60ade3db1a2a6f5286c36ffdb42c07e307418a846b14b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fif-tha-sin-2025-11-13 | Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? | 78,976,079 | 78,976,079 |
b514226c1ca61d5bac057fa429c8f5bde9a24374 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x3c704efcb2d9f7cb9a8f0aff278f36eb304cf82a9a468d250707c3c6cdccfe8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | cof-ber-kor-2025-11-13 | Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,710 | 78,999,710 |
f4e21ffeea9c92a5d7fa4a3d0b1f6974215bdf1a | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xccbed09b46a2b09721e9d1b376f1d327b272ffd96da444adae85f0b4a9f3009c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,710 | 78,999,710 |
b310d87863854f52e0c1baea563af85dd061687c | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xf61decb45062704d8ea8d9502c761ece7a6093f620f53385bf385d35085c9387 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fif-alg-zim-2025-11-13 | Will Algeria win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,710 | 78,999,710 |
c8860449fc19eaa33096a6efe166d885a546ecae | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xc66ab4ea9b3838ceb5c43ed86b49243a9ae2e846331a876a164ebea249187f20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Will England win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,711 | 78,999,711 |
e9de00ed132cca45a6ee107ebb06c8dcd11efcd6 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x2cbabf694ea8a6ae1d6577783efdae3c7e1ddf648621abd4bf2cdb21350ce5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,049,275 | 79,049,275 |
0535d39097349b07da095a1309f458fc22fd3ddf | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x86d669c09877311417c7925744c3d1d7db30adc3ec07d10435ecc478df313dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | 79,049,275 | 79,049,275 |
c446414228b38acb7033b6cb7ac94399b5487e88 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x9ed2ce64f35d98e78112312a30c4e9d1161e7fb3541d53f779fa961daa2fad24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,049,275 | 79,049,275 |
aa4de49e08cd966432b951d2be5057b1b2ef4fe3 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xf34e22013b78a23833336094f0c4592f773758584e4cb800b16c6194923deea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | arg-lan-cat-2025-11-14 | Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | 79,049,275 | 79,049,275 |
7cc4de24eebbadae20d399440649780ba324e155 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x3d740fb108e5322c494855c008311d5c1c9276efeddc2b73a16d8aa4b66bd581 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | 79,087,416 | 79,087,416 |
41575612a2c7ae90d656c2b5c89ca3263513b713 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x37bea11910936627707652bd6af486f7ea7eb5247cddc0e723de0aafbc67897c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | 79,109,152 | 79,109,152 |
3af5e30ff06e85e60cdf34158c636dc5155f357f | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x5f17e46226143cd4594650faa1212944ea929c900768cf2297aa2bdb9f563c55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-20... | yes | 1 | fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? | 79,109,152 | 79,109,152 |
eedb5dc96e339b70339835c0f1c26adc00bb948b | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x69c0bd6b72584ea2507e20e8b4f3d4e7cb327677b58ea7630fac168ce549ac28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-fre-pau-2025-11... | yes | 1 | cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | 79,109,152 | 79,109,152 |
54b99a1bba3edd9a6c713dd673fefb81db115bcd | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xc398c93642258cafefea18f164f2db06e2eff901d90b483b7b71964627db6ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-ata-sas-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-fre-pau-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-san-... | yes | 1 | cof-hai-cri-2025-11-13 | Will Costa Rica win on 2025-11-13? | 79,109,152 | 79,109,152 |
df5b0e60f8730c090b646e82a790edbd1741d589 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xefbfb13a7bb5b8c397e40e54bd9306e1499bbc062db3daf8cfea320d50b06cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-fre-pau-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-san-tro-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-st... | yes | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | 79,109,152 | 79,109,152 |
4eea95bca5536136a614527331886dcb673373b3 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x065bec39cc8ec2e19dcd899e2b4fc664d0aba4bdd2f840032f97e7948d000ece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-09? | Event: nor-san-tro-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl... | yes | 1 | uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
8d9d31f893da65aa9c0d2b75d7246d807adf9105 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x36425c098c5069c521b6d12fb57e8b5f4ef3701c5d43d7a4a583597c02d7da74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.041095680371386153
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? | Eve... | yes | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
ccf77bf519a5f3f2be87392ea169d17b6f225706 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x783350d95c239b7501a206951d9415a3741b7c3c71f393f8b4b8015ed832fb3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-cry-bri-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.041095680371386153
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | arg-slo-cas-2025-11-15 | Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-15? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
454908a99bd4d48b4b49fef3bf2a69b88b7f04a4 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8f8783bdabdd500dc401caddd12fea4bfae91543a8ea4458fc38e0539ffd3cb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-mac-liv-2025-1... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
feeb2541a0f3cfca66e5cc101d91f2df54e20eea | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x9418fbfd00d643df93f4d628ef505cd127525f13a6cc291f5f3757337139140d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-stu-aug-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? | Event: tur-sam-eyu-2025-... | yes | 1 | fif-mac-lat-2025-11-13 | Will North Macedonia win on 2025-11-13? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
5d8271c0fb64c5b39fc47ce1b43201658a688f79 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x97ff2647eead48deda01ad7d5b504e2e51a410e619cec2039bddbe0a03bcb36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? | Event: tur-sam-eyu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 ... | yes | 1 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
9e8bf3e20f2fb57b71ae3c40ba28cdb6d1cdd7e2 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xa663e4d39afc374bda02c089e528071e03981456a64b902b63f004b0740ad66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? | Event: tur-sam-eyu-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-ein-mai-2025-11... | yes | 1 | uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
39ed70d2df3c344ef6c9d1c34cc8b55106bb5519 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xb29bb3c7afb0d5f883baa7476167387aa639c2ffc0fa3647abc658a9329ea158 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-... | yes | 1 | arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-11-15? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
e2fbd9f68e0b458c521183613c15f2cb0e46e81e | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xc82455eec7b1c7917a151069cc6be2c5277168d24b313c739ad094e8877c0041 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bun-ein-mai-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fla-san-2025... | yes | 1 | fif-lit-isr-2025-11-13 | Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
b0faa89d69d301f6ae9f116ea4bd06112c0b7be3 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xcdec20318a102444de1f2d607739a5641fea58114a13d51d6e96c5e981588472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-g... | yes | 1 | caf-cmr-cdr-2025-11-13 | Will Cameroon win on 2025-11-13? | 79,112,665 | 79,112,665 |
d8dfecb137d888d19ae0fbd5b93d5f0fc910ed84 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x4e3ec6b7a46a89448f210d5796727090756adbabdd27fc72b34982637a12e2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-10? | ... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will France win on 2025-11-16? | 79,148,157 | 79,148,157 |
c82d0ad8670a1c88da8fbad3f68b2dff27523534 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-gim-vel-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09? |... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,148,157 | 79,148,157 |
3a0d1321375b91044d1ace27f036e80b6a0ad99d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xab9778d7d45a9e54666b23395c4af98fda75effacc2ab1359d94e632f1d0f5a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-10? | Event: arg-aaj-bel-2025-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? | Event: f... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | 79,148,157 | 79,148,157 |
2af7fa7ffb6cab94aeb91489446eb7fe858b447e | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xb2e0efaccef98ac0c2f1d9ef3de1275189f1a1cb5b09bdc50da4423e7aad4e99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? | Event: fl1-ang-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-tha-sin-20... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | 79,148,157 | 79,148,157 |
c23142677f965ec3d07c89ebc5d4171dfb27b97a | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xdf052be2015adefa70c7761d69b7fc7da4fd4879cd96702a406363c86e39e826 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? | Event: fl1-ang-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-tha-sin-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-ber-kor-2025-11... | yes | 1 | uef-ser-lat-2025-11-16 | Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? | 79,148,157 | 79,148,157 |
e5b3d7f587e95fa5e6bc34d2aac6c5c680c064f1 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x22b33c2cac283148986e12fe45f822a39b60d93b1a81fcd8ce84a42bbbf73c7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-tha-sin-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-ber-kor-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | chile-presidential-election-1st-round-4th-place | Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | 79,149,681 | 79,149,681 |
5a77cd8bdbe863bc37a75382bea3142a3ef500a7 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x54884ef1f269cd64b35c512fb529d9ece4e27f986220158217c662ba490fc124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-ber-kor-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-alg-zim-2025-11-13 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | fif-tun-mtn-2025-11-12 | Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? | 79,149,681 | 79,149,681 |
cc1c50c5c51552b6941ef716823fb3792c614d54 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x667c1469fddbb788906b3eacf83bcfa68bfd9e4f7bc35c6eeb0f4e2d31655c34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Suriname win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-sur-slv-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-alg-zim-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Will Honduras win on 2025-11-13? | 79,149,681 | 79,149,681 |
8299bdf62a8dc5cdd7b2ee07a39d745cb9c6c434 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x74f32a06daf1c921cd83ae48e0897a629db7f7cabd36c9328b007586005a4a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-alg-zim-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | uef-ita-nor-2025-11-16 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? | 79,149,681 | 79,149,681 |
93910e7aa74c326d6f42dfa9dcdc6278e15d4f1b | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xb699b5016fe7a00c69f52dbdab62b9467b60ff60c4b9c96caec35c3f0b288908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-13? | Event: uef-eng-ser-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | 79,149,681 | 79,149,681 |
440c1bbfc97b01c5ce71b8fb2bc5a301ebc71173 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x1ad83a2c1a144370c3e32ca469211d248b246de569c5fa4d3338e7fc0f764a98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Will India win? | 79,149,682 | 79,149,682 |
0023fe6141fc45c825ee72dc1bcde407c87bcb04 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8fe9a9bad15b7d50440107978855e7caaa2f4d466109b13f2cd17ba5add78625 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | Event: arg-lan-cat-2025-11-14 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | fif-fin-and-2025-11-17 | Will Finland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,156,232 | 79,156,232 |
7e4b7dc16ea1e7ea6dc7b63bb33f19400faebd75 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x14fe17fb268e975465240dc184732cbfed84c7d55b4c034b888a4b29b7daf388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | Event: arg-lan-cat-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
93f165baa9a6ee17f4c2bf00c608de94c1f2f329 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x4627b7b2de8227944a034f33f13355c599b8aa49e6a465c39c31abba8a0a42e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | Event: arg-lan-cat-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
1f345f30cd8bff4e6d1b2d732d7631c593021edb | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x52e8dfa4cf4675f2cd8c3486343242b9c475991abe5d31b494d509ca10383328 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kuwait win on 2025-11-14? | Event: fif-kuw-tan-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
4e0a4435e8a6328b5f4e07b06b28901a19a63938 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8749e1752abfa8b2fb45be57183b6efc55d90698458972bf39be3fc5eccec857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-rus-per-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choi... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
52ab26922a72657478b2cd8ca99f99c42e1678ef | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8c5e32128a97bde70fd921ac86fef05b19e4a383683ce25b89cb258368d1ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-hkg-cam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Costa Rica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-hai-cri-2025-11-13 | ... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
b66d7fcbfa7d14c1a4df722138950a989bda076f | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-tri-jam-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Costa Rica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-hai-cri-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choice... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
12569bc7cac3381ef6aee4711279390019b000a1 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x9307ddc6ea0bf56377fd195cd90e177480573b524010b2924fc7d824f0c1ec8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Costa Rica win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-hai-cri-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Choice... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,114 | 79,192,114 |
aaf2f8569f29e1cb5c0320d2eb6b7bfd7161247c | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xb03a595d2a38347e2e8abf145099690823542377f34fe98ede3f03d295533e4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,115 | 79,192,115 |
dab4214828a263bc7ae497c18b7284c001415943 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x3641cddd0bbcb705f715ae90308e1a0f70816a2553c41271b1df1e37191effa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-fin-mal-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-slo-cas-... | yes | 1 | fif-qat-zim-2025-11-17 | Will Qatar vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? | 79,192,164 | 79,192,164 |
34035a429fca2eeb0eab957b9648444d8fcdddea | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x3b899ec03ec419ea7551819c123a638e3fb8852e45c40d89073382573a19a5c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Event: uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-slo-cas-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later... | yes | 1 | arg-bel-uni-2025-11-17 | Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,164 | 79,192,164 |
b2e172c100e4b7c4da6b914e1eddd5d2ed19ff3d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xbb5dea23fd201dfc17c260948f8c077bb1bef6717daf4c157ce433b34a251462 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-slo-cas-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will North Mace... | yes | 1 | arg-def-riv1-2025-11-17 | Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,192,164 | 79,192,164 |
f04702d276b6507ab5c5dc8256b6be125f93eb16 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xeb692665d68e5ad0973954e4ae96e82ee3917bb57ea6850fdef24b61da569b23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will North Macedonia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-mac-lat-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 20... | yes | 1 | fif-ken-sen-2025-11-18 | Will Senegal win on 2025-11-18? | 79,201,275 | 79,201,275 |
abf74e04ba11d2568dd84c2138db7d5f9e862e49 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xfd757bb10ac2b3e8fdffa1278639ea26d1c46523c5a39e7852fe6d80c5bfa1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will North Macedonia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-mac-lat-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 ... | yes | 1 | fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,201,275 | 79,201,275 |
a328a2f01afa50d2d03656921efd92ad4439c2ee | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x30e542c6050fe219ef302578107ce8e05496f3eaab95a462ae7c4c9b7a577ca4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | Event: bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-god-rie... | yes | 1 | fif-chl-per-2025-11-18 | Will Peru win on 2025-11-18? | 79,201,305 | 79,201,305 |
065d60a5b26975d5b8d7d627f3e51b37b754a8eb | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8febb8ec1392b53adb8969fe66f9077391fb040a8838986fba309efbd8de7124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-lit-isr-202... | yes | 1 | fif-cyp-est-2025-11-18 | Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-18? | 79,201,305 | 79,201,305 |
04530805cfe26b38e011fef56059f87c0b9b96fe | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x047df26289ea109eb6628de650a2f9a3af67c6c21511af8f2b0ad0dade5a1870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-11-15? | Event: arg-god-rie-2025-11-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-lit-isr-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-cmr-cdr-20... | yes | 1 | uef-wal-mac-2025-11-18 | Will Wales win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
7f9a3cfe5ecba3b980346392ea67cb1e98895673 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x155c34007fe7ff10419c3677947d9fb8e19aadceb9d4a875e48074753eb766ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-lit-isr-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-cmr-cdr-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | fif-mar-uga-2025-11-18 | Will Morocco win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
9d6fa2fd821a7286d3c0e0fd689a292ff24f1440 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x49ebf9c45a1838f360e1b1ad9d3fa514f6496193fb977b53b6cf96428c8bd730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cameroon win on 2025-11-13? | Event: caf-cmr-cdr-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | cof-hai-nca-2025-11-18 | Will Haiti win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
51ba8399ff6f06ae41e1df6e2121a4ee919a4a04 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xa20fa6eb1f1ba7f86d84e7708e8c116182be5c001b5762e6b02209e1e7c1b735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | fif-col-aus-2025-11-18 | Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
602acb9f6df52618dff3b3cb01d7342f85da7eaa | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xadb4fb950b86f95d43a2efd7717b0d223b07640de6d84ee4c8254ea2129b982a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | cof-tri-ber-2025-11-18 | Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
5788d2ee5e31b762950f7579a65bd684cad19e5d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xc27f6e05c0d0b7fe2826188d0d88e3b1d19db7aa62b5ad8587aba30700ecf61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ser-lat-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | fif-ven-can-2025-11-18 | Will Canada win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,141 | 79,216,141 |
be691941dd98b05cd61093b23004b54e8553d0cc | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x01ee91e461a1d729e1bfef10d19a40182601cac339c679853657da13b30beb0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ser-lat-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presi... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-slv-2025-11-18 | Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
cdb422715b8ef8a28671a61054861b47e6e7cf7d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x07b466f310968331a964fef663937a504c847d4774e5810ca2eaa1b1bb63562e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ser-lat-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | Event: chile-presidential-election-1st-round-4th-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | uef-sco-den-2025-11-18 | Will Denmark win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
883f551f8b432c5ffe463c9b37eb636045fd0203 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x65fefa9d50f2372529d08d382dd69f19690c221abdc1812ba4817e23fc243ae2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | Event: chile-presidential-election-1st-round-4th-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-tun-mtn-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | cof-cri-hnd-2025-11-18 | Will Costa Rica win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
75c656009c27f3eec2cb5ed0b93d6bfccb4e692e | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x736bf9fd796dad23025c1f0fb3d8c8d4cac0126731b7b74c9d8d4ee73aa2428a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? | Event: fif-tun-mtn-2025-11-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Honduras win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ita-nor-2025-11-16 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | fif-mex-par-2025-11-18 | Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
9691c2e02f9c16c8389bf55312e542add62c7ec0 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x7f18832851d755189586dbf7dd1aea2acedd403518dd0b78e11761601617bea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Honduras win on 2025-11-13? | Event: cof-nca-hnd-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ita-nor-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice... | yes | 1 | fif-bra-tun-2025-11-18 | Will Brazil win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
392bcea19b98354229be2db74fac36680220ba36 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x9b7fb4554fb14b0e16ddbbc534e9cec9b6eddf4997cb96f51a344b09ba89d90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? | Event: uef-ita-nor-2025-11-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will India win? | Event: test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | uef-kvx-che-2025-11-18 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
72021ec33a2201d64b611e4b516cac597b57d032 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xca6b9809496025d518c9ff8360d6211e78e28b1537980ade2881f1c255b5b568 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win? | Event: test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-fin-and-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | cof-jam-kor-2025-11-18 | Will Jamaica win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
d04c65980036ecb5e8461f072a2a050886526230 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xe408c7f12fbe2332f86996cc4120d68820901321607ebce33ab52ce1811c74af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win? | Event: test-ind-sou-2025-11-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-fin-and-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | uef-aut-bih-2025-11-18 | Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
f0ff1b97a2c922e2f0d9643f5ffccbbdbde4cf6b | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xec400c2ddf7a911e1f2bc39054674475b39eb4094dc9b0b5c7e07e199308dda8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-fin-and-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-tur-2025-11-18 | Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
0de0fda10d3af431f8d376975440b96a06ab07c0 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xfccc4dcd377ef9d63c973b0766d079866c58c32c9ab4bbc1f249497adf498c3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Comoros win on 2025-11-17? | Event: fif-com-nam-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | uef-bel1-grc-2025-11-18 | Will Greece win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
b81532a13360843cadbb91455916559a7f122d46 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xffeb5c3a0a7d9525a7b82dd75e24a0233fa0f7d3e07abe692c9709b5f548ac5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Ch... | yes | 1 | uef-bul-geo-2025-11-18 | Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,216,185 | 79,216,185 |
699200060441988f7e3f6b995123c99c8aeb68a9 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xe5de7cfcb4e4c77c546e657142e8c071d047fabaa09b8fe60c6dcae33d2d330d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Cho... | yes | 1 | bra-gre-vas-2025-11-19 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-19? | 79,274,574 | 79,274,574 |
0261fad3a9df58755660db352a1e3d0306eff9db | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Cho... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,317,241 | 79,317,241 |
ffd934f33aa67c1c266d5127bbe1a0e06305a1d5 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xcbb22e3cbdaeef0ad0a80b914336249e987e93f2a8fdd41cbbb2567928419f3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Ch... | yes | 1 | spl-kho-haz-2025-11-21 | Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-11-21? | 79,326,978 | 79,326,978 |
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