sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49a8184ea926c8a48059e3c8f9386fd04b2a07d0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc3ede0572bba2901df68aac861e1be5a2de742060237d8cf85085e596d210eff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fartcoin Up or Down on May 16? | Event: fartcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-baier-interview-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8437441450893... | yes | 1 | will-trump-and-elon-publicly-reconcile-by-next-friday | Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | 72,590,143 | 72,611,602 |
71a8c8b5f953ad0bcf09956331faf1c01493a6ee | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x26ed2c7b22d8bbf6789e76bdcd88c22b605df53e88c7b57fb3dc48b7ab259a8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-baier-interview-on-may-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8437441450893693
2. Question: Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-442 | Cho... | no | 0.000003 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 72,603,234 | 72,603,234 |
2015644b99777663b235726edaca53293c1d18f5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xe2469149fddec9269d469ed559fa40ed21c469475bf3a853386729b90f2d50ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-442 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7223408799658265
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 0 | ufc-fight-night-parlay-buckley-and-namajunas | UFC Fight Night Parlay: Buckley and Namajunas | 72,604,520 | 72,604,520 |
f7e04226935f9483873a34e99cb068a493faf33b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x44353be044823fd81768ecf76d33ba390130471ae757bd80e708d0624c915810 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25? | Event: what-will-powell-say-at-princeton-commencement-speech | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 10? | 72,605,517 | 72,605,517 |
50475e19f9390693cc1f478cea7459039827ffbc | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xce950e72879842c0a45781c4545d9de7c02f5d257af63810b17ed59a7be0b661 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Powell say "Parents" during Princeton Commencement on May 25? | Event: what-will-powell-say-at-princeton-commencement-speech | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | C... | no | 0.114569 | will-courts-block-trumps-marines-deployment-by-friday | Will courts block Trump's Marines deployment by Friday? | 72,617,059 | 72,642,342 |
bf12a02dc5164bc9dc41571c69e50b5494575a01 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xaf5bb4e12df888eb79c831100fd12370d02ade946200ac6fae9e2dc1cbc90595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 10? | 72,633,276 | 72,641,355 |
624c221f79e25b16991988e00f426eba3086440a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x1a9979d62dfb8d989c8ebbdd194923e91964bee4bd1782c6735a2dd0c9fad486 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 0.000004 | state-of-emergency-in-la-by-friday-787 | State of Emergency in LA by Friday? | 72,634,006 | 72,641,114 |
534e24acb7e35926d6876b51108d542535af7390 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x15995d5a7043d83a02a06e6f988f04e377e2667210c948feaa2826234e35310a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 11? | 72,678,359 | 72,678,359 |
aec9c79754103762b78afdac937d8c0e08058cfb | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x9ad13f0c9179df9814590dfbb723274883a0e84eeb514a4bf78141f7c2a0c43e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will JD Vance say "Decentralized" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-bitcoin-2025-conf... | no | 0 | nothing-ever-happens-june | Nothing Ever Happens: June | 72,681,549 | 72,697,058 |
b0db1b993bdca09676dfb072af877403399e9a6e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xd50efc55c66a727a9bddbffcc24e54cf006b843b011b50d22b7d541277c40fa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance say "Decentralized" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? | Event: what-will-jd-vance-say-during-bitcoin-2025-conference-on-may-28th | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0008379572387821229
2. Question: Will Trump say "Apple" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-236 | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on June 12? | 72,683,040 | 72,683,040 |
2dcff3a0efaca1bfa82088c745d1c86a49e5b7b8 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xb9f0e833ed6930270caab84ce18c322aeceb422e9b27a05d8e0ac225dbc3a8f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Apple" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-236 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | 72,685,097 | 72,685,097 |
0243cd8aef56a7c30fc649dea1b753058565d0c5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x1eb00fb93562d2dab295a8e7bceb65cbcd5b6645c6682a445606caedb9b32ce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-8... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on June 12? | 72,685,099 | 72,685,099 |
c8a190dc5c1059d4af4042e94fedebd19ea73408 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x89cbae04e562443ed077ed62f34888b7488a32ce53075f2ac020839e6a63da1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75–76°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-82... | yes | 0.009548 | iran-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Iran strike on Israel by Friday? | 72,699,238 | 72,721,392 |
ab59dacfa0012b77450f56c12d6d5a7112ecec65 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc1d9fa4d969b2979bf2f64fe9893700d81a0ad1f1bd6a4e6d61381f1af64d0ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-82... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 12? | 72,719,370 | 72,719,370 |
60939bdd23b1509c27d4b8b0e6685bf468f5b18f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xb320a4841f7eff637ff8ab4adcf0573dd53296b618f14b92ce458b8f75c3cd86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Cho... | no | 0 | iran-ballistic-missile-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? | 72,721,980 | 72,739,158 |
d8a8d024abedf19c4a8d604d10ccd4b832136149 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xa743f49d57573eeb08be8bf879e3db53aa4b924bfe0fbbd1f0dbca71a5b0401a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on June 13? | 72,722,004 | 72,722,004 |
3c1c56fc3f7cfb83a7354a294fa66994081997e0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choi... | yes | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 72,729,009 | 72,884,875 |
2f6b47c4f5efbf5f7e5b12aa1c75daadf399af40 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xa08027995d9d80dcc4cef0f11e47df5ff0644f6e1fc0fd3ea0325bc76f3f5357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73–74°F on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Cho... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 13? | 72,729,062 | 72,729,062 |
cccaa2a02692bc8a34d0953644dc4b66b36c3929 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf71bb3e1cb3e4f30adea1dcfb4add75eebd7efbf415e1bf467cb21f06abd40bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | israel-military-action-against-iraq-by-friday-148 | Israel military action against Iraq by Friday? | 72,734,919 | 72,743,490 |
c8e7f8cb5c7835c5c197f5ab86ab5074dac27112 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xcfb7f1471e877392a92c4b1e40218e02517bc04978bee62d809171ff57e858d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 14? | 72,761,285 | 72,761,285 |
20cf0844d3bfec2aff8957ede137e1bd6383309b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x16200ad381a5d02cf68ef0e86a393a611fa0253479012a94cab2346497fb8800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al... | no | 1 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 70? | 72,779,215 | 72,841,174 |
44cd8dc1d0178f967c520e941320b17ff0d70134 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x6b2e7e85608c32a8ecdcb428495c2b54c9677d30a906726d37d0ef908f2889e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? | 72,841,065 | 72,841,065 |
419a0439d87653e9d3bc8be05a94a5baba7939b8 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xfbb90e319ade7eab077e7be5b9bd206d97ba2b780c0deed6ce445c6b58819d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will G... | no | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | 72,842,898 | 72,842,898 |
62bae73676d611cc63be6cf28ef9d9035cc2d49c | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5e1b53dced8c6a0b3d08d0f222292f5a4dc9561878d53fe9c7ec5451f7c5c0e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.17212525613721197
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 15? | 72,844,010 | 72,844,010 |
9d263e2628c1387b39d876c79a4323fe9ae4dab5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xd20f28c0e3b436406a6ef0c2b7ac1760cd8e8c8da34f842dd747102e25b24b6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-june-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.17212525613721197
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 16? | 72,856,895 | 72,856,895 |
02576a47839d90445301119aa253f3e1153d6e6e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x501c5835c87139d0f7a4238c0db77c40058edc26b1ef6063051b108cd7d19f8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 16? | 72,881,186 | 72,881,186 |
1b7c3f81194f1f3e8bed397330a432a25e234daf | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xba063a9ce4c1194042c7ea701f255da5a4d0a28279253067b2af1c0164ad6438 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 0.078164 | elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 72,891,564 | 73,019,434 |
11ef8f090919c0ee4eece0923699be5221848e0f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xdc542d90e5af6d89303b916d6018e5405ae6c89ec2273e95b0d40dfbba3210e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? | Event: will-elon-apologize-to-trump-by-monday-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.100004410009261e-06... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 17? | 72,922,491 | 72,922,491 |
c27c4c1079d8ccc26005a63f94f7a8c37b006be6 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xd347dec81fb3e6a4b990f0dc291a8083c85bf4ef16e43efbd41b6f249584ba0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? | Event: will-elon-apologize-to-trump-by-monday-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.100004410009261e-06
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-june-20 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20? | 73,104,587 | 73,104,587 |
148372b4a7967e7e39fc6c8876f4bff30e207466 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x3b2f19935f2a969634a7aca52b69cf653d957ec6243bdfcb97dd830003e90624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21875
2. Question: Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | Event: will-trump-and-elon-publicly-reconcile-by-next-friday | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 0.000001 | israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | 73,145,703 | 73,145,703 |
7865d3bf4c0b9a62661ee2ba37ef9c3be1f6ec00 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x412f200da79ba42e77cfef70b044af95ab68f7144838d470ad5fb6d993827d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | Event: will-trump-and-elon-publicly-reconcile-by-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Choice: no | C... | no | 0 | ufc-317-parlay-topuria-pantoja | UFC 317 Parlay: Topuria + Pantoja | 73,250,413 | 73,363,036 |
af756cc3e4a255bd6da0c92f8982dd83051a8a04 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.319988977636594e-06
2. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Buckley and Namajunas | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-buckley-and-namajunas | Choic... | no | 0.778522 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 73,253,633 | 73,253,966 |
6e75fe89faf54e98bca3ed14733d2e3a9cd5b23f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x4a2fbd6b2903641f940af5165b151d970915360667a8af3ab3e24c94f3eb002c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Buckley and Namajunas | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-buckley-and-namajunas | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.000001 | will-elon-musk-create-a-new-political-party-by | Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | 73,433,870 | 73,539,551 |
d0022d4fd34af93a127f60871ce511db4e09b728 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x03a92320cd8286dc3d205182fb6ae7620bf54239ee1e305ccf387992adb11008 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will courts block Trump's Marines deployment by Friday? | Event: will-courts-block-trumps-marines-deployment-by-friday | Choice:... | no | 0 | ufc-fight-night-parlay-lewis-thompson | UFC Fight Night Parlay: Lewis + Thompson | 73,492,635 | 73,904,390 |
03b679b92d3d367399cdf95815242a8fe491a34f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x474ebf591dcadcecdaf5ac5ba70f60a86345d23a83c1ba54e923ff05b80c163f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will courts block Trump's Marines deployment by Friday? | Event: will-courts-block-trumps-marines-deployment-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11456868647087885
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-ju... | no | 0 | ufc-fight-night-parlay-teixeira-bonfim | UFC Fight Night Parlay: Teixeira + Bonfim | 73,529,908 | 73,904,406 |
3241cefd9d76da3dfa4c0874a18e947f3c3cf747 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc40cbb2d7f5d2c43c624bd5b1d0b18cd3d0682b3937363ec7c1ad1d13bee107e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: State of Emergency in LA by Friday? | Event: state-of-emergency-in-la-by-friday-787 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.03289806209304... | no | 0.59936 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 73,541,661 | 73,541,661 |
cd537d1702252e0438fc9884902bb1fd7910077a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x833fd071dcf33f7f7f5ba1f1bdd31c144c5c9906020b9c47f496478376f4bea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: State of Emergency in LA by Friday? | Event: state-of-emergency-in-la-by-friday-787 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.03289806209304e-06
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | 73,578,134 | 73,578,134 |
0775a47ce3bf611fdd82f3baf33cfe483ae5dfc3 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x3af7fc2706ab2fee576a991a288150859874cb8263534750cb7c3296edf787b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: June | Event: nothing-ever-happens-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest te... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
8696ddfb08c4be8ef0bdd8d37ce57bb4098e5e9d | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x4d531e01347f685b4a66493184857be628ae8e2c5b8d0dacb595c92b570fb44b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: June | Event: nothing-ever-happens-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temper... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
c663187e4331a803681c68427f9c82437a17bef3 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5561f1a7befdd9a0be4b7f805fb3610139f12825beea62413ece7255be14bdc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
57c28040130fca4812b3a3fc6cba8232f0c7d917 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x84ab58e5b5feb270215150e0e360da5ed2a052ee277b5039c0320cf54985c30d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
e9c6fcd9be0ee5b9f060038a4160ba0a5ac54bb6 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xac99865554746124d0dfc0ddea04ca02f25de224b5f585bd00cb262cd449ee26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Iran strike on Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.009548212006039444
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
6f2984205e4d56ee9a7ebdd6249778e956c7c53a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xb921eceb145f5006861387a2775b93765ec1f493f29a06cbad57e36e927b7da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran strike on Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.009548212006039444
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? | 73,585,904 | 73,585,904 |
e58dddefdf8d68fb7d64757d8f09bfec1970003b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x3fddf094b1915e08429e398292291c7f9ede9320c09ca8cb8256c9dbf9a3f177 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-ballistic-missile-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Choice: no | ... | thompson | 0.000069 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim | 73,636,160 | 73,678,784 |
ec559171643ea6cc95155504144220a76c74e9ac | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x547ef94db08a64532c8e8a57a90a5e680ee775e9e9c790ac092cad123a051ad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? | Event: iran-ballistic-missile-strike-on-israel-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on June 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0.000007 | monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | 73,637,446 | 73,637,909 |
d9fbbcb63492f489258b36bbb2e73b0d0f51cd4f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x8d5a768b2dcd7aba7e6df49eeeed5ccc86fb733a8e02f51a560b417e815dbe51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on June 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.0... | njokuani | 0.000076 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. Njokuani | 73,658,198 | 73,666,352 |
d852abc64268dee332a284e23521cf137c4b18d4 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc6e5313111c71e5d7a9900951e71a9d6878f852220b6e198c4ffce127831a619 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military action against Iran before July? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.066953302652379e-07
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Choice: no... | no | 0 | will-bts-release-any-tracks-in-2025 | Will BTS release any tracks in 2025? | 73,660,962 | 73,955,230 |
61bb97cf4acac50ac1182ec1b2e98cd894c9a17b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc01daadc782c980ece31f6b537c70d6b96ecf51a2c2f269359984ebbbe83587a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action against Iraq by Friday? | Event: israel-military-action-against-iraq-by-friday-148 | Choice: no | Confiden... | garcia | 0 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garcia | 73,664,709 | 73,664,709 |
5ff2109595e482ebf7082797a385ccfad49d056d | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x427bc4b40c09b3dcbc973747f0e4b079bed91b3e5a0aed5c36edd0f7591485f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel military action against Iraq by Friday? | Event: israel-military-action-against-iraq-by-friday-148 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-14 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0.01155 | brazil-unemployment-below-6pt3-for-q4-2025 | Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? | 73,667,711 | 73,864,671 |
2455e32f2ddfc947fdaa6d7e226165045a269f7f | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5fe0adf2be7656934df7af55ff03a50113ff0abe7d505f3ef465206d583df852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 70? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | 73,668,662 | 73,938,867 |
2ebdd039c0ebcd867a7cb57f116d2053d014b3ca | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x225899ce24e91244bd96b1f984481d9c3a7522b98fa24e8aa3838f3a12a453b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 70? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | will-apple-integrate-either-openai-or-anthropic-into-siri-this-year | Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September? | 73,668,989 | 73,668,989 |
6e1084c863874361bd6104297faa2694b549aa82 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x6cf752a544887d04cd3a38e9dad228d24a2601d80790625816bc76f3f49de231 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | moura | 0 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Moura | 73,678,331 | 73,896,718 |
46a91e0d976af33d271b16048d00c76a9e332643 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x9900047926e40f4f2d81a41a8e3e11245806bae181b12b507d363b5d784f6181 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | lane | 0 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. Lane | 73,679,000 | 73,683,768 |
2c52a77a4700890e82d5a74d8131443c14442a9a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5606e91fbfb8a4549ed75717c3fa615a18d584d1bdb87cccb96c0859aab4cd9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 |... | tafa | 0 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. Tokkos | 73,680,854 | 73,692,332 |
bbf9ded2b932c2d72404a20a12ecbf0d8312de48 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xaafe9c637f088ba90f1b5e1aab54c19ebe94a0f4e6e73ee0ae6f1bba9ce6ef9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 |... | nzechukwu | 0 | ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Walker | 73,684,298 | 73,684,298 |
b10038cfad422af36664513feee15cdb973fc79b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xe47e12af5a6a2cca5a69057a416507efd54bfce6e2932639dee7554faa9d6fb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.078163802... | no | 0 | will-trump-visit-texas-by-friday | Will Trump visit Texas by Friday? | 73,693,088 | 73,847,778 |
cf67a208c845c6beffbbe26a89e674e04e029b60 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x9176fae5ec5340e7ecf584d01fd8ba3c164bd8de6abf97cb13d8f0c9571e24c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: elio-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.07816380226212048
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-17 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0.000011 | monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | 73,702,370 | 73,738,865 |
c142545bc672b281b09c1cf45e8a593c2094d6e7 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x159675af6c3f092a2e66aa26cc2056f44e574efeaf316c9c30266ca5043e9a3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-june-20 | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 0 | trump-nyc-mayor-endorsement | Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor? | 73,714,816 | 73,902,002 |
062b3e005d89bc73f21e687548e6212a718e452e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5f20d484415858e352da85028cdf5061fe67d4db727b6d55aaa8b102747a8acd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-june-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | Event: israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0524888781509203e-06
3. Question: ... | yes | 0.000011 | spacex-starship-fully-reusable-in-2025 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? | 73,718,097 | 73,718,097 |
1356d2c4ea2b5f93685f85134be37f6993075bb5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xa3cb159d001130c470b2b20d7abc650966cf5b0b16549e442b31ab6a51a33639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | Event: israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0524888781509203e-06
2. Question: UFC 317 Parlay: Topuria + Pantoja | Event: ufc-317-parlay-topuria-pantoja | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2... | no | 0.267146 | will-either-cuomo-or-mamdani-announce-they-are-running-for-mayor-on-non-democrat-slate | Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? | 73,718,535 | 73,718,535 |
b8792136fbc52285af0bf1c46bbf31099fc46227 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x19d9b555204ef71da9ba11d00093af1366f310125da78aea60eaca6aee333a76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 317 Parlay: Topuria + Pantoja | Event: ufc-317-parlay-topuria-pantoja | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7785223786995705
3. Question: Will Elon Musk create... | no | 0 | us-x-iran-nuclear-talks-resume-before-august | US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August? | 73,718,858 | 73,718,858 |
fbf5def73927093b399d02c4d283c9b0933e5920 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xd4e7947fef685b3e50c253fa7d117624db2a9676661f3107652fa019cff70eb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7785223786995705
2. Question: Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | Event: will-elon-musk-create-a-new-political-party-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.... | no | 0 | israel-x-syria-territorial-agreement-by-end-of-2025 | Israel x Syria security deal before September? | 73,719,148 | 73,719,347 |
9ddc94ac7488a13982397a70a1237140a9852805 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x88f258df4351bca6389cb6fb57eb8cb8a85c8f49bfc3670395cc62ebdcc37b21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | Event: will-elon-musk-create-a-new-political-party-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.860461459967232e-07
2. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Lewis + Thompson | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-lewis-thompson | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | us-recognize-somaliland-in-2025-737 | US recognize Somaliland in 2025? | 73,719,853 | 73,791,149 |
d693858fca4694dc01980e5b0d5a2f9f11b7f894 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x52bcacee91873a53b46d49231b04329b013d6ff38a82b9ac788d96bc907a8f1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Lewis + Thompson | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-lewis-thompson | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Teixeira + Bonfim | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-teixeira-bonfim | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2... | yes | 0 | brazils-12-month-inflation-below-5pt50-for-december-2025 | Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | 73,736,497 | 73,816,214 |
c266eef83981476862a7100f7b78bd9a968977fa | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x7ef884791dfb0a02c3e2cd3ea37086d458cbcf4b3c589d1bd3d56f50fafe46ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night Parlay: Teixeira + Bonfim | Event: ufc-fight-night-parlay-teixeira-bonfim | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.599360255897641
3. Question: Will "Ju... | no | 0 | will-trump-endorse-eric-adams | Will Trump endorse Eric Adams? | 73,738,544 | 73,738,544 |
d8e745a286833914d1ea91d565cc35dd7c773fef | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x4cedbddfde0872b20aac8b421b98d3808cd97d15bbff5d10602615c8476c68e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.599360255897641
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | C... | no | 0.000002 | another-successful-houthis-attack-shipping-in-july | Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | 73,758,658 | 73,839,348 |
0e9bebc817e4c55305bd91fbe34bbb8ed497afc0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x0e5219af7f980cbd6fd8d4fd4233bfead6f2c0cc8aedfa95b0fdf9268ec4acd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 0.000001 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? | 73,779,973 | 74,635,843 |
9cd7bfd271e567bb27cc19682eb68da9e28b510c | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x1028984799f36082c3d3b7a6264c4b9fc4cb996bd8f5f7faefa45a3981b12b51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224... | no | 0.022831 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July? | 73,780,289 | 74,563,484 |
08239df8fee093f4101b959b015b3c9ee8b06722 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x04ff6d0a06b29b1026155b16dc5bb5fba6194294002d4e2be25a0a65dd676e7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 225–239... | yes | 0.10814 | shaun-maguire-out-at-sequoia-in-2025 | Shaun Maguire out at Sequoia in 2025? | 73,781,879 | 73,782,064 |
536ff053f23a3e5c52f4c8659423f57de459f8cd | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xca0359891be82904b0948da1056f88bb81310215aa4c537d10cabb4cb313aa44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269... | yes | 0.195403 | what-will-be-said-during-netflix-q2-2025-earnings-call | Will anyone say "Netflix" 30+ times during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | 73,787,225 | 73,787,225 |
607e5f69314776145daf92762bede2610ad38930 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xc9d9c85016145316ae4d1f20b8ed804a17e3de6fcc39828b882738de516823fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or ... | no | 0.000002 | what-will-be-said-during-netflix-q2-2025-earnings-call | Will anyone say "Million", "Billion", or "Trillion" 15+ times during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | 73,787,418 | 73,787,418 |
1657b23ee69d0a7962e8ffe787499b0be3af2776 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x64e4e2be8b0cbeab53f96bd383985be00b368ba938ab75c5a0b17fdb1a3035cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Th... | yes | 0.000004 | will-grok-resume-replying-by-wednesday | Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday? | 73,790,780 | 73,790,880 |
d241f01c61e4e507fdb3a0e9f113320a1bcb4b20 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xa86e19c0e248eb3d4d63ffacead1546bedacb9dd7f2bf058416d43329cacd054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: thompson | Confidence: 6.896667184154784e-05
3. Question: Mo... | no | 0 | third-gta-vi-trailer-released-before-2026 | Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? | 73,795,324 | 73,795,324 |
d679dca9786291f406b906173533b7511124c5df | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf18e0785116e491c40b5a607fa69a451ae552a3f04f50a6bc51a7768fa581e96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: thompson | Confidence: 6.896667184154784e-05
2. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.74036274575... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July? | 73,796,184 | 73,796,184 |
abdd846843cfdfb44b056417c907a520ebda9d14 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x5c464af4535c8ddc8e07214ff721bdb6c0ea48dc9fdbf0dc6408b0bd55bb424e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 6.740362745753501e-06
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. Njokuani | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: njokuani | Confidence: 7.588075745... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July? | 73,796,394 | 73,796,394 |
ac9b39b6114ab40ca9ef7d00c7670724a955ce92 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x86c0face7dc9c4b2178cd61cbe5596c5096f890fd460c3a2be9b6691027c1c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. Njokuani | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: njokuani | Confidence: 7.58807574524717e-05
2. Question: Will BTS release any tracks in 2025? | Event: will-bts-release-any-tracks-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Nigh... | yes | 0.16682 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July? | 73,796,643 | 74,819,981 |
bf59135ab69ad9b6ae190d0ce95cddc3b6a669e5 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xaea6c79cb8d62ecba64932c911e54f2e27c44e382ede2849684461a92dbe5c87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BTS release any tracks in 2025? | Event: will-bts-release-any-tracks-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garcia | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: garcia | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q... | no | 0.18488 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? | 73,796,903 | 73,796,903 |
b560b2aff6d0499cc71706d30011036b314cfcd1 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xb82a42c269c36bce2781aa158c228497272d9a0684211ce9ef4457d33a4eb980 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garcia | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: garcia | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? | Event: brazil-unemployment-below-6pt3-for-q4-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011549513475996592
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | openai-browser-in-july | OpenAI browser in July? | 73,797,077 | 73,797,077 |
f71cb7ae51762ee3ac771a2bd00e0b8b32a0f337 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf41bf8956903833eac2fbbb7a29b2432f128bc4c6171c8b9859c356be682c300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? | Event: brazil-unemployment-below-6pt3-for-q4-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.011549513475996592
2. Question: Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | Event: will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Apple... | no | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $100m? | 73,820,142 | 73,820,142 |
fcf155e98caccf76c0922ef9317518b46c707acd | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x0fc0b9f78715861810ba3610cf23b28771b289ca5a4837ea935b9f8cbba557ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? | Event: will-governor-kathy-hochul-endorse-mamdani | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September? | Event: will-apple-integrate-either-openai-or-anthropic-into-siri-this-year | Choice: no | Confide... | yes | 0.06947 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? | 73,820,471 | 74,819,977 |
48909eacbf9e72762410f58e10b576130132e9e9 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x1195093e00d262abad24b4bcf65fe266a67df136a83e4391f3f5e1e0cffcddcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September? | Event: will-apple-integrate-either-openai-or-anthropic-into-siri-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Moura | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: moura | Confidence... | no | 0 | new-x-ceo-announced-by-august | New X CEO announced by July 31? | 73,823,658 | 73,823,658 |
228a210557b3ba250a13824d25e90d5ea4c827d8 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x3619333c56ec53413c25a0f21bf1bd64f2c5c4d0dcf006d8c45ea62ad9ae4d1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Moura | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: moura | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. Lane | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: lane | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. Tokkos | Ev... | yes | 0.79433 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? | 73,823,886 | 74,516,298 |
535aa5f63d1b0d53cd6cd8591c9f43fb87d3829b | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x0aa99409c83ee67e3d0413ded30606dffb81bdb76c1c68779d0eddf034d0c300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs. Lane | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: lane | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. Tokkos | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: tafa | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Walker |... | no | 1 | texas-republican-senate-primary-winner | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 73,825,424 | 73,825,424 |
3822b5447707c3e0d99a5d7277a2a8aab1fccf9e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0xf17cab6c10db437707c6cb88e30b9688046207eacb529291f4256c3b2cab5f28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Tafa vs. Tokkos | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: tafa | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Walker | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: nzechukwu | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump visit Texas by Frida... | no | 0 | dan-bongino-out-as-deputy-director-of-the-fbi-by-july-31 | Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? | 73,845,904 | 73,864,272 |
b8abbd8277955f1ad1e954333dffb8018e14840e | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x9bb3d099aac0708eccf0c9111d3b8c1712254b039c5c51348cb31b06da6dc537 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Walker | Event: ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-teixeira-145 | Choice: nzechukwu | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump visit Texas by Friday? | Event: will-trump-visit-texas-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day a... | no | 0 | will-justin-biebers-album-swag-debut-at-1-in-its-first-week | Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week? | 73,858,365 | 74,280,436 |
d962f3d67d3739bbaccd692d7a84d925830156d0 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x0b9f873f001fa5ccf06fb55a21663401a86ba8af20c2452baea618a32c08c88f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump visit Texas by Friday? | Event: will-trump-visit-texas-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.1279148077660326e-05
3. Question: Will Trum... | no | 0 | japan-prime-minister-out-in-2025 | Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? | 73,864,466 | 73,864,466 |
a11310d5f39dbd95b914e725ebecd5f928741745 | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x90ef8fbcb380dac4c8b475a9bb157cba72984fa0eada1e911c02b9f2498ea841 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.1279148077660326e-05
2. Question: Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor? | Event: trump-nyc-mayor-endorsement | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Sp... | no | 0.161318 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? | 73,886,776 | 74,665,319 |
afc080f3a7601a01826318b637e8bbba07d4a20a | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x887df6242bdcfded2c0cc3b5a29967ffa1e474763cfebb5915e40bb0ba480b1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor? | Event: trump-nyc-mayor-endorsement | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? | Event: spacex-starship-fully-reusable-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.1418660736595946e-05
3. Question: Will Andrew Cu... | no | 0 | pumpfun-market-cap-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | 73,904,667 | 74,003,312 |
15837f7012709fb7334baa2ec80f2b0555f7449c | 0x22e4248bdb066f65c9f11cd66cdd3719a28eef1c | 0x512718d1e86486239479452aecfcdbc89387f5d4ceb2182a290425f3b309ab20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? | Event: spacex-starship-fully-reusable-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.1418660736595946e-05
2. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? | Event: will-either-cuomo-or-mamdani-announce-they-are-running-for-mayor-on... | no | 0 | 50-copper-tariff-in-effect-by-august-1 | 50% copper tariff in effect by August 1? | 73,904,887 | 73,904,887 |
ffaf051080ad9e72a5290cf5da5d4e25f2ab6166 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,378,674 | 71,378,674 |
7b09c6500f424b2d46e59e6ddc2d407415e932b1 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xd711be2656ef48392bc30e556d55a507f366e56cdd6f3f8321989f44b82dec59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?
Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | 71,378,674 | 71,378,674 |
ffecccf05aec330847dda283c02f6042738dd11f | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x6917c5a9dfbd0154b0983916c9004e84e651eb5b8b18c67acd903d960760a84d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025?
Event... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,454 | 71,680,454 |
fbbb62a938f5d13884a73794339f43eda1fe8f38 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x4f8f8d8c90f5bc2b0ed06e961b5fc9ed3fceca912dc2e242a38927407ec04257 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,456 | 71,680,456 |
8ee72f935672c347761dd713bb32e893696b971d | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,460 | 71,680,460 |
cdef390f5a5a2c2393aca8e38c73e904fbb84bcd | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xae5e043ee3cec6bf13db32898b940f86c459c8f0509d007535b44f4e6fa4b0d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,462 | 71,680,462 |
e5c69bc381775588e1dab8df57b89b757e837989 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xebcbd389ca979bdd84df0aa4276a86bbd0d62517c776ceaeba552888fb0e416e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,463 | 71,680,463 |
bd9349d9bfd7c7e32815d8314aacd3532562c82d | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xfb6e175f630cd8d873d8051881c4db72f839842208c606b41bcdf750a1552f55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,465 | 71,680,465 |
487efee061a5bb24446ff784072251fd13b06f27 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0x221f8019e282a5e317f753a52338b9fcc9b727e2080b25d15454fcab21d17454 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,466 | 71,680,466 |
d490c388df6cf15409faec8011ccb205b138d5e3 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,467 | 71,680,467 |
142c5ecda1ea118b4dfe9f4c6af60c1d3f08c854 | 0x22f850a66b01d268f4b81cf1f99db01b6f89898e | 0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovisio... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? | 71,680,469 | 71,680,469 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.