sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
aa342e138e58b91e0219e4df5eb9311d13ab6293 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x7c8ff2a6ce0beee4b48d9d3a148a836279c376c31aeae1cdd6fdcc1ea585fd38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nld-lit-2025-11-1... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-vit-2025-11-19 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19? | 79,327,166 | 79,327,166 |
207127a0ac138c7613ff227127492dc390a3584c | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x34c1ba85ad95e3f95a4ac13ec50c535e06ab2e9a683748c3eace91ad1e69371d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Qatar vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? | Event: fif-qat-zim-20... | yes | 1 | bra-flu-fla-2025-11-19 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-19? | 79,328,081 | 79,328,081 |
adf643146724a95296edc6880c97e338522a13e8 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xbcafc293a06ec6ea75c5b4df81fd133c0729bd7778982b7f3c37e36c24dffdce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | Event: uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qatar vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? | Event: fif-qat-zim-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-bel-uni-2025-11... | yes | 1 | bra-san-mir-2025-11-19 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-19? | 79,328,081 | 79,328,081 |
c73296ebf62520a37a4984eaf769356798e0736f | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x782d12c401b10a1f2c9f67e4d31bb7d189e3fa937e28c425f80c704b834dac95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qatar vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? | Event: fif-qat-zim-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-bel-uni-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-def... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-olm-2025-11-21 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-21? | 79,350,921 | 79,350,921 |
56fb4ca5b6616b35b99a14b2038544b8113c8a0d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xa85f3835cc6cf0a12af6c39fcace98a308e143a48ed06bd92431813911370bd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-bel-uni-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-def-riv1-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ken-sen-2... | yes | 1 | den-sif-agf-2025-11-21 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-21? | 79,350,921 | 79,350,921 |
ca3a5a55f6978b617abb3bc3b2c3f2d38da9c7e0 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xdcd71e350d3f93d3c563c5ba4df6118c0897aa952f450669e39ec96e948e9214 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-11-17? | Event: arg-def-riv1-2025-11-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ken-sen-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ksa-alg-2025-... | yes | 1 | nor-kfu-bog-2025-11-21 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-21? | 79,350,921 | 79,350,921 |
381a3ceccad72d1fc10891896b04b233b1608d55 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0xe481efc5777dbd55f6fbd68b1072b9fde277bb5da483d18a2ef68619585e9e7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Senegal win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ken-sen-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Peru win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-chl-per-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | test-aus-eng-2025-11-21 | Will England win? | 79,358,028 | 79,358,028 |
3472d731f3a477f2c3980743b5fd8b9083efd908 | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x2bc59855a3638b1d6ff7f784cfd7084b4be61231e744511b9dc2dba219dbeac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-ksa-alg-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Peru win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-chl-per-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-cyp-est-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | 79,364,450 | 79,364,450 |
64c92dc6eaf5c43e58643324eb68ea632178b16d | 0x232bba74af376271200e3da65834597c7e181d3c | 0x355f7a1d813163a3c680e4b979db87c2879c3a2c6824e6671a142244ae146865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Peru win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-chl-per-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-cyp-est-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-11-18? | Event: uef-wal-mac-2025-11-18 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | nor-tro-rbk-2025-11-22 | Will Tromsø IL win on 2025-11-22? | 79,395,111 | 79,395,111 |
6b0ac080429d0cc8000de83178951221989fd9d1 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xe1b8f1ebe4312f0a185161385f52a25c0eb75b4ee84d4bccff312ad637ca325e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United?
Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | 62,895,681 | 62,895,681 |
6bfb6f4fae15c116a835bd57b08f01f2a167a74d | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xd37d456955bccbe01af32da32ce6ddeafddc03085055e20246d159af29afaebb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League?
Event: american-league-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output... | yes | 1 | american-league-winner | Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | 63,294,212 | 63,294,212 |
6a772b5ae4bddf1e1abaa62f3ee28ce41f42e34a | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x46b90139f58c47de7eff3fff4234135f42979ed2bb0e8e0b9b6cc640320a4483 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | 63,294,226 | 63,294,226 |
67a46c678707533e99e19b33c4fe2a8de4d96df7 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x0f5d9897e3345a731ac36657fff9def6f9907dff9fc44024db53bd6df5ff904f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | national-league-winner | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League? | 63,382,236 | 63,382,236 |
a496bc2cc5648ddbe7da1e371f767d44c00080e7 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x835f8d053046b9ef189c3216b75d46a2d2fb8a27a7e65d4ff09ef7c14699e73e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | 63,947,148 | 63,947,148 |
e726e003b20ff1e104a28bf0352b9443169ec15e | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x973f3a132b52b0b590b3371003d4e32b8dd77159423a3a1331c06aa7d715284f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | 63,947,163 | 63,947,163 |
5e65c5dab55fb85204c3a41c08e24cf0db5dc204 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xa56238a8d27460ef68b1d84555df3521556db4f1ddd68ae5305e1188a5022ab1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Will West Ham vs. Everton end in a draw? | 64,109,947 | 64,109,947 |
fa9cedb29ce48dce4257b98aa2e1bad9bd834091 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x1a5dbff18745feb9efda07f903126e59c957ca313bf44c819846136609fc6247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | 64,915,186 | 64,915,186 |
b77f5e529ab43f0374de527db414763a29b49c7b | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xa41a7b05ceac8486d9428811659790aa92ace0fdc942b2458176c1b63d0bc443 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? | 65,985,742 | 65,985,742 |
8dad938b1983a582974516f161b1bcc147a112bd | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xcef494589678983304cfac2034a7df02c9fcef0d560582b8e76c01748a8c32e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? | 66,406,069 | 66,406,069 |
2a25ce8e3d98f34d443249742236fedb70851365 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x8c19f24cbc7c3abad8374594556ae9da71427b35a62f37124995b9dbd07825fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | 66,831,788 | 66,831,788 |
428c92abd9fb97fb21fcdc7ce3f0ac96db2e95ae | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x2c73adc0dcd4ec3a1e4145ae2231641a47bcb6a790a69e83927787554dd69d9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-01-18 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-18? | 66,925,971 | 66,925,971 |
cd912183aca2bad8862c4bc67cf2f927bfd1103a | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x7c11961299d865fa80eb380bf74566d918566866ff775d7179c8d7ad7c79b127 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-15? | 68,033,525 | 68,033,525 |
f2979417f38f3b418630ecf0f5d1dbecfefaac5e | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x3b50032646e20987a7fd310cfc82095aef7b50b9a7165d31cfbfc61217e0e670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-che-sou-2025-02-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25? | 68,509,548 | 68,509,548 |
12c498c0819f9770ef5b5fa4a5aba15a74cc418f | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x94c8411e32d3e62ea3094a6b7df7ff84bca85d27a9b50a0ddc52f8bac04b342c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | 68,509,548 | 68,509,548 |
6500da544e2c65d7b8510717165b734746032323 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x289c940a68bd70174374b58864dbacbc9db57479587468745a35164a83483480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? | 68,949,555 | 68,949,555 |
4728340f0156f1144ffa9adab0e1bcca27ca5b88 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0xea348e8bfe03af4a195286ffe25f0f733c2d54fe50f9d54835e6775f6613aa9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? | 69,827,286 | 69,827,286 |
86d7e032aa1915c7e208688828a0a6ce9b786306 | 0x2347df15194431f420d9ac1dfda98e33a90690b1 | 0x6217c64e6b26a7d8dbea2546838886d9ac9bba4ed8a1cf3e4b37893ff2ed5fbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-manchester-united-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the American League? | Event: american-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? | 69,908,719 | 69,908,719 |
71d36c6aba2630c6e5616b5e4717e238884e9ea2 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x1c2150c17fb7137a49bbdf2619c19858f03c6068c76aa6b6568c388b56cc33dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09?
Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | 68,851,317 | 68,851,317 |
dda8118708ec24717f8795388a7e0642a3dbebef | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x24014b107ae2c722c5e37a3824dfe740222d21b9d4fee5d78e3fe8f06ace051f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09?
Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confi... | no | 0.999641 | epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | 68,851,317 | 68,851,317 |
97414f07986f90c1cda208577ef7e5e27777d430 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xd8f227d665d55544878ffdd4cea3d251a8ad9a583e8e3ff2c09a21e41d3df310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
... | no | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 68,851,317 | 68,851,317 |
863f51ce4144ea342ba39e9d1e3e4291b9c88f72 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 0.832269 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,852,804 | 68,852,804 |
a1f3659b4eedda3763c9b23eb88a90b34c13f16e | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xd941647418378a962807c7348351150dc352fd3b6ccd995e5be84d28e73ebf36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 68,853,100 | 68,853,100 |
8c8291ea5d83b931e15bfa9e674f0a862a4aff84 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xabaeac8799d12447add1a704fa408f35bd6c52ab195d60235eedf522ff5463e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 0.999885 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | 68,910,003 | 68,910,003 |
0d5f3d6a8b50ca524ef11843d5a581d8e6d1ceba | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xe6fbf79ae9f5c73b1561c5a351a6b991aa64a8365e1232f58a86a51f5bef4c34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 0.999962 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | 68,910,003 | 68,910,003 |
68238702ffb0ebf8c8bac0603a0318ad5ec8ac6a | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x289c940a68bd70174374b58864dbacbc9db57479587468745a35164a83483480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? | 68,935,523 | 68,935,523 |
b05e643fb4db07c38fef4aaa3271399af9a0d242 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x6ed569040b5bee9c56f5813fe04594024017e5fe427b032c3334ebf6d9fa8135 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 0.999964 | ucl-bar-ben-2025-03-11 | Will Benfica win on 2025-03-11? | 68,935,523 | 68,935,523 |
b210ab7c7b3368477f1e72e5a8a505b9939ff6eb | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x0f1a4e3f3b571e154e208276223c69d4bb35627343319c79798c15dce321cb0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 0.650834 | ucl-b04-bay-2025-03-11 | Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
0973e2629b74a87f5061b7431a211b46681f60e3 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0x2a994a42d4209ec88694284228eb51a427a276e1d1cb81ec4f56d271f12d3c26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | psg | 1 | champions-league-round-of-16-which-team-will-advance | Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
31d68f590f0cb65a7b6549c8cda377bb91c83c0e | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xb0e5cde4066c3b0e35bc9c27cddfe567f32a9ebcc560fc74644057eda2183773 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 0.999995 | ucl-b04-bay-2025-03-11 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-11? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
ae48fd3a13f6f086061644d0c9e2eda1faa82f6c | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xbe6993738f96488886a74cd2a6ff2ff81c3bd03e2c8b5a969a2df8e5aff354a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 0.999978 | ucl-b04-bay-2025-03-11 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
9a7794a145e3cd54e53cf5f9d0a2a17c425c6003 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xe077bd5ec691d3178159739f841a3562d9b0186ffe9424ce33f50be95c72690d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Will Liverpool vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
619e965ab027e2219adc000ab68e7a2a719b5d98 | 0x235ca1f440b8517324422320f7916eac384d8c1a | 0xe952c969c4c10391839c96a821081a979cd6c7ce8f122649df1c5bcf5c0aa15f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9996408156015962
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-11? | 68,950,985 | 68,950,985 |
b79f21f1b5870b402dad849747a56f90e7582503 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x7a05161e35d72488237eb8cbb91820097742ecc798600ef765b6199ddcf32e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?
Event: champions-league-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | 68,106,195 | 68,106,195 |
493a9e711ba92c807080e9a92ef4d2e6bc6552d6 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x43e3fc8b404b703791ea8eafb7819f774cd981a0442a1527f3d6d478f2e2465f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League?
Event: europa-league-winner-24-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
3e2c7197def0dd23d338f59d41b50659241031e5 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x4549ef05bb9b63f2934e36a4ea57942d8be4d45aeae3add4bf510b3edf9cb712 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
78dddf5d6c8ae40c4bfa962ce15a3306bcda7278 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x75f14012151c638174d87bdd4a758fac9270555bb3a525e55d447e1f3233e1e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
755158f023c37f6b49915cf266486a8454e5b083 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xc6798ad2863ce49e34e409bd5edaf0f4b34d591988f601bd3653d0a1797f5999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
a27ae1a251d63c34285d8d0a7169c6232504bea3 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xcf6ee989453b44e532516119deeb5b581119bd0f09e065b4adec62ab280744d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
d974765c3c2982b03d430761332fe4d9ac1b3c1a | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xe88dc3c12f17baf276d8a018cdc6ff3b40e7c3be42d646a0fc8e06696db97c33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | 69,027,944 | 69,027,944 |
7ce8aeb22a832d9eb0ba8cfea0ee571fcac403e9 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x6e6833542152851b8cfba0bf53e3a33ea586effffc031d4d4204eda0968481ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | 70,640,666 | 70,640,666 |
699467611bb16b4894084c4c3d8d8a2cbb2d90e6 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xaa7936df8f63ae4654933428519c6c96087fe462327607d31375fbbc9f396a2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-winner-m | Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2025 Internazionali BNL d'Italia? | 71,507,471 | 71,507,471 |
c96616062c42f1585701b4a1fa99d77f898b7fa6 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,694,265 | 71,694,265 |
237902755ac00855228ffe1e98694c0c37b58d7e | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x475d06b509d75bcaf237c2ccfd8f57df8e490ccf6d9bef628b357c4e07bc94be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? | 71,802,013 | 71,802,013 |
6962b78a7774683c9b26248e4771881a11eee5f3 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xd35da57f76072a80702decca8cac1493599575930130c2646bfda0b4a43bb933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more? | 71,802,015 | 71,802,015 |
cef0304cdf1ffa352975d87f7e098e1cdc3883a4 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x40b348d475f96b3d53c195fc4eb71588c100a0a18310de757de7cbdee993c99e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
8309f0eab8cf99be2aa84f052c16a6455b4bafe0 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x90de4a34ebb012c2eaa7040928eea9361c8ee63df965b4f4f491994396a9d9d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
d98c25b76f7cbaa77b0dc2c942e6822cad51ea73 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xb7330c13d34531d23833a50606de29108a5b7f870d5fd00113fc64e6a56e3c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
0d24730fb4db1af552e0650ab5c2d78109bcc25c | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xcdf7e670c87c4e9fd9d07f755dab421bdb05769361a14f0bd483bbe7f5cd1412 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
9951e1583f07ff1e79c681f07ea7fb69d6f6cbe4 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xf3e07bd71d8d077b6ef708ceb934f2bc67b15ffa28d0ac4836c98c7de06b06df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
e3da3566b5e493f6733c2889bef1e9f9d24d8db1 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xf54f7697a4aa7ddac27b4b12f625ed2a018be0c7572eb0f14a667f62d6208873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner-w | Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2025 French Open? | 72,481,447 | 72,481,447 |
1f9711ca82e3179e42f6835a247064e5c343ace9 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x758afbf77a43b485a7d0885e1d341a5d245429f84077661bb9573932335510cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-lexus-eastbourne-open-winner-m | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2025 Lexus Eastbourne Open? | 73,317,625 | 73,317,625 |
50252e2b05914afc4d8fa8fd25aee10e9ed378de | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x6dde621967e34c4a545f68278533c110897e1a8e353dd12e7e5c17102d2ae4ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-mallorca-championships-winner | Will Corentin Moutet win the 2025 Mallorca Championships? | 73,335,688 | 73,335,688 |
6a607ea05274667c2cff540eb93cb19b2acb130a | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x751818f17a458f9b7dd36a0683535729a4dbf5561500b43eb67d8367f2d235cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-lexus-eastbourne-open-winner-m | Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Lexus Eastbourne Open? | 73,346,268 | 73,346,268 |
6c5cdc7607b6b18f77b368ee0a10e66deca02994 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x221c6cb71ababd3eff204b0535e2fb76c504e9de044e53b529a07d8a7aace620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,420,643 | 73,420,643 |
67e06caa7e3bef18afbc929146d0111792009ac9 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xc1d43e70a60d0a817007a8dee07f33f3a7fbacd499924c094e71116e13b365f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,614,741 | 73,614,741 |
11f98cf424f2e116cc312420dfad1cd3751fe340 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x64a54ccc7bc676a7fd8fe321f97ec8243e3d96e27272d924e7f2d67e2cd7f13e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,614,743 | 73,614,743 |
b3497109a5ff62b8b066e06d26dbfe186a9c4c57 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x79d013d9e196867363c728943cfd357b0c5f2914f5e03c6c7bfdaa2bdaa9436a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Jasmine Paolini win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,614,744 | 73,614,744 |
01f75f89287ea6a9387add0393a1505171a18cdc | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x28800186e130ce2fc04f091aed17ab071dc29d84197aadf533add0620caa7209 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Marketa Vondrousova win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,614,746 | 73,614,746 |
492d5658c9cac963f45214235c48e6f1e31632ac | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x2a5f57137f93d91b400b20188d2c074d5fe918b395f03bd6f948e35cd7bf0bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,624,022 | 73,624,022 |
75d8ae26a50c247f1e880311bca0e083b504566c | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0xc797b6ed1dc0fed4f45b83869c6b1a2ff7ac5a402ad6e119d690ed41a4ba1abe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Barbora Krejcikova win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,624,033 | 73,624,033 |
b80a35897f7c216c485969bd0a54eabe22638341 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x6d41029c7b01c54bf7153dc39f88798d82ff4b411bdd6b23d055481bb3150aa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,864,506 | 73,864,506 |
d670cf6f29dd1ec6ee30da7b9c70a750ed4193fb | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x2a05c4416f02c6bb616816d7410c7d1602c6c2cf9a4f379286beebae4ec1d831 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,864,508 | 73,864,508 |
6da671605e4d5c60bb29931ee1029d5ae32dc0bc | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x317ca543e01ffc373e2a715bc9a4a778df1d9c6d22a423c41af0d6610ca4590d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 1? | 74,678,687 | 74,678,687 |
16d245af22d281cd293963b22cceba9f18520c68 | 0x23604f561b4746c2b10b34302fd46c5127a51c1c | 0x35dd67abbcdefb7697137e563a389d57c59e3285d205f6d3330232fd364caf47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 1? | 74,678,687 | 74,678,687 |
be94bbc6e10c6301fe280abf28c7df811eb860f6 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xe0c6d489a1b98413168f333afe14a0d278f0114ef829f9e36fd8db3670d5568b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?
Event: august-inflation-annual
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | 76,324,611 | 76,324,611 |
6925bf8734b612244cfb6503e6bb2833b2deb6d3 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-september
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,574,335 | 76,574,335 |
60e56402bb566a8419b51104431d1f06c690b599 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xf604eceef5bf3b13fa5abe90664ebe0e95fd62d65ba565381d8917d2337efa97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,141 | 77,266,141 |
8cd67fdfdc7490e89b232024e686621aa459440b | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x85f7d0eb63e78700418dc0d590092a2abebc1f3cdb81ae51454eb414322cb5df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-olm-2025-10-04 | Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,158 | 77,266,158 |
8872df6ab3270b73a2f9eefca451d5f8f286e162 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x73c731f9536ef7184d834e1efe5172e0653d912febb4b05ff4654df310887d07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-wes-2025-10-04 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,232 | 77,266,232 |
59df61dcf5193abfcd3c4bcf959b09121fbbf584 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x660a3e1f37b55847281946515e1329a62f2fec756096390b7b375368349c215c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,266,241 | 77,266,241 |
70e94ffd3d21f9debb99f1b58678076fe3b26bf0 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x83d4c41e3e1f630e916a9108aebbc10d4b05d31f2f0333e5aa0cc0611389920e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | 77,266,269 | 77,266,269 |
528471f81e8289f3e3c65ade1ffcb855d136b0c7 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x58c6c60e7e9ad2da476e476d4297d9ffa9fc55b3467a3bc83b67787a641535ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-pfc-lor-2025-10-03 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03? | 77,266,279 | 77,266,279 |
d399fea72e67b8949497f9572681e77ff57d40dc | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x34bef83b3c0303c1326737aba7a7dfa470943073b138efc77379b12c4d561237 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-vil-2025-10-04 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04? | 77,268,742 | 77,268,742 |
50f33daca0b8d7372bf9908afbefc0852aa5da65 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x12d9d04bfa55d0faa366ef2d394b0a6cffd279512e3d12d87f283d7656083d4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-aja-rcl-2025-10-04 | Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04? | 77,269,327 | 77,269,327 |
dab525ca371f8996bd00e8f734ec52a306b37f09 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x946d0f2933318cfb9a36afa624b18d5b21e275ceac0aee036517c42bfe05af34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | lakers | 0 | nba-lal-gsw-2025-10-05 | Lakers vs. Warriors | 77,295,219 | 77,319,403 |
2fc94b4fc6f05aca636d3e6be6f718c2190cf7f9 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x443fbcaae2f2cbdeb1df03f7830d56db49f999a7ff9dee92f0a386402fcc4083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-tou-2025-10-05 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,299,604 | 77,299,604 |
34dd1686e1bc9425594c6283180613b143509eef | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xb8e3df902c59d8c65465a7076c0bb7c92d8ec7a664ffbea3bf05ef812310b3ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bur-2025-10-05 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,281 | 77,300,281 |
a13a82551fb38c7132e034af79df6174ebca9d88 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xcb7fbb98b81d8982e13677f79061bd8452d96c8c18d4511bfc2cc37f340e4bd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,281 | 77,300,281 |
fbeda85d0260ad08ff75e69964bd3342379c39ae | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x0b6e01cec812d24a629dd1fe1105b48bbc6dbc463fa7733269875852fef17d07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-hei-2025-10-05 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? | 77,301,456 | 77,301,456 |
bd3ce1f14ef86b064bc0be8310da6485054c7c4b | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x118367d74c71eb1a0da1ec3a5813cc9ff0e02d36c7787eb8a6aa295b2be41c35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,302,894 | 77,302,894 |
63b473577b0ae9246b823c0b0028628ad4c5e3b8 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x67bd71888a9a4915f4f61ef1af8de6a489e54fd2f0928e3848a550666c06ef45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | por-aro-fam-2025-10-05 | Will FC Arouca vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? | 77,302,894 | 77,302,894 |
feed12b5ffa31cf599a629ee7adf9396266b3c84 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x6a2d188e9a31379752a35f66b9c3390e3d7339c156a00393116bca822e6785e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,302,894 | 77,302,894 |
d7965f0273f779d237ecc4b10fb113553a0b1081 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x6cdddb701108f6b4abc0c11e86b0335a02b7c5c932227d05212e4a0048de7cf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | no | 1 | f1-singapore-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | 77,302,894 | 77,302,894 |
f52aac20c8723e7e7ef0c34d6702573339f474fc | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xb3dd88190336de8fcf092900964ee326f7ae72d82f4a867cf5cbd6874ecf5b4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-05? | 77,302,894 | 77,302,894 |
a17f4323db145c5aa32bb3a00b0fbeebe4dd8dc6 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x0f0853b5db8f671ed468006065b850de0334ea85d31677fe744a4150e8c6ac0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | hornets | 0 | nba-okc-cha-2025-10-05 | Thunder vs. Hornets | 77,302,976 | 77,319,403 |
ce556994425bb22557de5b76fe3d9643fe5dc26d | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x62cabde5b8d329f92e38d43e14897ac24816f99564382758df1b2e5216cd8af6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | 77,303,619 | 77,303,619 |
4d87c3f81544da0becbfb75f88a202c094e30444 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0x5c3df1f2f24fcfa42edcf6d20037551db365e4dba88f1e6b5db6118055b91c0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,305,242 | 77,305,242 |
712a42cc34b0b62c45dcca07da9db2250cfafc9e | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xae2409e6fe866d38ddaa2fbda7ed99761c7aac538a907f0d16f834520ee5dc24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-ang-2025-10-05 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-05? | 77,305,242 | 77,305,242 |
7a1a58470344e5480ae6f0cd43b00c9eb4d4cdc0 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xca82e3dc15bfa5fc5e11ad6945e53143e1c30da21f3631b9090a9b8d17fe1354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05? | 77,305,242 | 77,305,242 |
9b2b86ac6be77046434035c75a33d2e9bc81ae70 | 0x236102f266ed10d291b3e9097d4db68e3f67e16e | 0xe49098f70b31b6e4bf60d14e513028a35c76aa24018045916da6a303b86aad16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 | Will Napoli vs. Genoa end in a draw? | 77,305,242 | 77,305,242 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.