sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bad6343b324fe9636a263c87dcf900cb03af752a | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x775264eb29b7372eb041194afe93cf6b651a971e0a7a660b14eade12bb4f656a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | 77,632,426 | 77,641,922 |
574d12d5d026bad45df3a0238d47fd33b5cc4e69 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xd34662cab94afabc08dd225e4ae3f6e0465e659b0e2e9e72b1e7e65dc9846735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for ... | no | 0.008355 | bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | 78,244,032 | 78,272,517 |
dfbb7507fee01f15c9e3626061d81fc3848eb050 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x445eb5430cb025bf83c5cfbb392a72d4bea4b16eddedb8f51bc0135e7af9d8d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
Target m... | yes | 0.003083 | bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 28? | 78,244,032 | 78,273,596 |
98a215402733000cc45a8c7d8ebb1a5ba5b5d8a3 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x929520330d64eae22fec4880bd74d2615da4e0225fab5128aea97b7371d3ea7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0.000096 | bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 28? | 78,272,509 | 78,276,517 |
2b6fef70397db5704b5fb81fab6abaad76e86043 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xa1363fb403d494d4f878a13d2b1682fcc28217dd2f0e9c849a3519f2b210106c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.522812 | bitcoin-above-on-october-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 29? | 78,282,156 | 78,290,352 |
e8c74a97c778a600ecb10df7cb8cf36a08d1f067 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x0ecce3c44d2fcae0f96395ac29f1f189333b66b10e5ab3e59de2a58e9ad99a31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 29? | 78,289,667 | 78,290,812 |
3c8ac5f405427e73216105b13d39da02099e2e6d | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x3409cab899c56511ce3a45ed5841cd9b1e8e4b3d988d83e40f5ef6dca28acd95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.194163 | bitcoin-above-on-october-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 29? | 78,289,748 | 78,290,796 |
047e1c38f578f2b814bca216049b854a96fdfd17 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x27b387998c0133b4987e2a5ae94b075d048f950060d90b806e23c63941a9e58e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 30? | 78,325,432 | 78,366,790 |
550bb7e6aa9e327553b797bdae9b31a84f248301 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x54802b201691af8f2942c8ddc1be485689f5b6d0c3d39d35e660fb3d5a9c1395 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 30? | 78,329,569 | 78,366,790 |
327bd674315e69d789b66d32aae997505499b4cc | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x8d1bc6fc43da183c358954f051f9960cc821c7cff4ed8e893e7a7007ae13be60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 30? | 78,365,996 | 78,366,809 |
edf3d32c3ed75c2a7a73cf028697b648b72a35ec | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xd1b0804ce552543bbe94e522ee38bff956596081f900343f18134fb79ec6cb28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 30? | 78,365,996 | 78,375,575 |
376abfd598952c9a3916c3d85e155ed82fb7d910 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x4020a4e70f2d4ed168d74181762e4e96fa08d113698d69c734096a5d9b6abab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.031661 | bitcoin-above-on-november-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 3? | 78,464,714 | 78,546,438 |
76db67c2f6a9e99761d3fe60d7ce4094d85d7d1d | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x939b404edca61da683a72b5a16d39b6830d10e8470687a470350f733ad9f2e1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 3? | 78,484,753 | 78,546,436 |
cb9cb2a6673157ccd13d9223608d1eb422ea91a0 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x660cce193c70eac618655ed381765aa4b3e4694f418ddba33b2bb284b63584ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-3 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 3? | 78,497,235 | 78,497,235 |
83b3d5afb44bb942a3aeb44ce0095e01dd80cc95 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x3a1aadd1cd3b3c9ffb461265cd5eb089e093ac622a8b9ed818c31f1668781e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? | 78,557,275 | 78,662,951 |
270fb9fa789a038f6933b28f3b1732c7ca33f737 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xf2427118735ca0620c052fa080552161de738993351916cd58a94de06f8886f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0.427683 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? | 78,584,700 | 78,586,701 |
2bc7e8eec6fb681201713fdb10108ac6d2e825aa | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xd332f7bf21e6171fe1adc9dc727fe0b9b74c5b43a96529a32cb0888ad7923aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 5? | 78,588,901 | 78,588,901 |
05b8329374714de4de16f2beeca1b0c2216d6d39 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x974f7cfb7f590c83aeabea4cec31a16f7331c76b8ca33648b8dd03d4f1cd6a77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 8? | 78,665,084 | 78,763,858 |
4ed58f306870941b04a9ca1b2e0e5d617b46b89a | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x6e09f294c8b5a8843dd2a5b9ab1ddfebff87d39240fc487ca260fb6ea946e61f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? | 78,680,867 | 78,763,853 |
1bc91f3e257751bb190eff13fe6c2bfb95a92614 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x234bd2733db8d0dae572c45fb5bcc5352e6a0eb4f8b903b8e14ac985667d49c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.013352 | bitcoin-above-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8? | 78,680,867 | 78,763,861 |
d440c1f0bc069c244a70dfc9c36c555e4d1b0653 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x80f45228dfe0143d1454cb2d3182c097c90edcd4b6ce25e21b442259a7d4c12c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8? | 78,745,027 | 78,745,550 |
b073cb999b71dc94c4a68db826e6fb404b42c8cd | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x8b219f89448deeb364a8a77331a4f554becb16dc57c0a03f07a612231d138fdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? | 78,930,840 | 78,943,558 |
4b7720d2e57d51081ea630b8344c3460d060383f | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0xd22f5c315e23251119899add87931a43c40984ef4b701510a3c64be1ae6f1c08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.011175 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 13? | 78,938,216 | 79,003,337 |
2a887e134cfab17af6ee770a99e1d081f1b02c11 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x4544ea50f1387958ca715cee68e82721ccb5787227f86f50015696478890d49e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? | 78,942,574 | 79,003,328 |
a4efeeb6d1927970721d9b4d9935945076a636ca | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x8f1d6b2dc3875bc07a698e5c95f6f7307878e95a04f0335bbd64c7932f96b10f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? | 78,942,856 | 78,942,856 |
ad4efee0e0924aa0aecba35f03f74d7031fb9668 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x687191e1df91790b289a696df9f7e503e6af7af8759dd1df29b958de37c25887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13? | 78,942,873 | 78,942,873 |
666da58cf7f3c7e1709064d060275125b8a56be0 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x1e2f684449a8f6e1720af644ac81e71c483987c711e7f2e0c5b45e23d44dd2b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | yes | 0.395284 | bitcoin-above-on-november-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 13? | 78,944,740 | 79,003,348 |
d0cfcae6ef76b8da96be12a3f4ae1128a75c8920 | 0x251bd61815f86fa62a575991a8b52caf3cd85f86 | 0x13ec3bce2cf3f4dc40fdee88a7a84f645be28201ce7052a40c80dd211dd3cfab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 13? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.008354563423600409
3. Questi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17? | 79,076,139 | 79,076,361 |
6bad6795c1685a9a12cb3a9484116508f74d8cb6 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x9825f7716c38f9b2e7e15432e1c1ad2bb1bb5f254a668d09336b91ddd0659e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11?
Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | 77,565,650 | 77,565,650 |
5ddaa2c46019ddf7fc421bf0db374178b5bcdb18 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xe10190526534563cc1dd9b59d7361e80d2392661cf39cd55c6158b4ee446aa4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11?
Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confiden... | yes | 1 | uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | 77,565,650 | 77,565,650 |
1e20cbf59bae4e9e4dc0245ab89bb96aa54a7364 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x7eacfba01742b276a78a34198f52a80c053c9e5f2afb09c6d95392a6a87273cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12?
Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,599,495 | 77,599,495 |
34907db7f6433525c96e04c35a6865366bad2400 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x0e1bf4d5c116557ff5d5ae26549cea15af30eb30ca4d5a1e2487951ac7ed9620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | uef-lat-eng-2025-10-14 | Will England win on 2025-10-14? | 77,700,128 | 77,700,128 |
8138f994566bee9d7a31ae83e32f600d0fd71b5a | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | uef-esp-bul-2025-10-14 | Will Spain win on 2025-10-14? | 77,700,128 | 77,700,128 |
512911895c8dbcdce7deda04f30be601d5a75d65 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xb6aacacc464eb2583dba4db17c197631474f53a68f29657e42285fd3408ab45c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | uef-tur-geo-2025-10-14 | Will Georgia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,700,128 | 77,700,128 |
958f224faf642033e49f233e85393c67ee220814 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x17acda56c743b9ded56267ddf5dfff711e4202366bee0ffc77ba26d07a036b55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | fl1-psg-str-2025-10-17 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-17? | 77,838,028 | 77,838,028 |
e798ec9e05a9a5c13bb9cba616ea79585a763c97 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xa1adc098f0fcddbcad3050aecb21dbe4986f04222310bf08ac00b7b2b8dab7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,979,808 | 77,979,808 |
1a8accfb4c85bb58fa8afd7263802766a7832d95 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x5b898e4daf323cd6838f58d2764e65cc8e1db4adc6e3d3822ee1b03267a5dce0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-10-21? | 78,022,663 | 78,022,663 |
1a3bed1ea8383af37edd2cf281a616df687b3f73 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xf9b4433ab6d05a3eb54dcda4fda8a9f0e9f69f639a527aeb2e8ce3506cdc4408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will FC København win on 2025-10-21? | 78,022,663 | 78,022,663 |
083cecf6af896ba2566266a779861d014d7889f1 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | 78,075,324 | 78,075,324 |
5ede4797365a1381516729dc776c8b40b3049930 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xf041cd6925d8a0d8c0e966c7d53174e93ec31d1454660f70f8c3f684ab8bf5f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,123,445 | 78,123,445 |
eaae266cd14386fc55d2c9c7775863bd01816a45 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x188a769e534021cbb3f978fa22c673e9ff6ed90dff1d9e857c7c3df5a5c791e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? | 78,164,655 | 78,164,655 |
bb8c92c99e2d7efd5bb47ee9806a9a307e81cab1 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x7a510f2d34ec72f8d5fa9e08eb269c085c8afc353493b0680778931fbd7e2245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner-538 | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | 78,248,265 | 78,248,265 |
16395cc78886b936132b7fbe9ec0fbae9ae42842 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x3d39d9321a8c4531c50f41f5bc2320cbfcc6694bce63d0430406baf249f04e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? | 78,274,428 | 78,274,428 |
5a1dc5842c5f651e541f6ff5ef642cd8f41a2912 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x88cc982ef6102d2202214c0c53c59a629eeefb084f24a0ce4a38a6b9a4af43d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | 78,354,330 | 78,354,330 |
3829990d955ed94428394168cc8bb7d8dc10e578 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xbcfd625d9a285f091ad6ef6128dabec846481f7e63586d5c0334c75202cbf46a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29? | 78,354,330 | 78,354,330 |
7cbdb42d77969e3e762baa1a1f3d3414b8031329 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x26d3455f3afb423091ee8641305ccaf1c3f0d65802b9b2d63ae415c63f456b47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | bun-mai-wer-2025-11-01 | Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw? | 78,461,852 | 78,461,852 |
736e0e38caebdcf9e2bce8f4fafa4ef2202f7a4f | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x40cc9c6c925aae6e8b29714635aa10fc316e0495af7a2fa013f43c24af3afae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | no | 1 | bun-hei-ein-2025-11-01 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-01? | 78,461,852 | 78,461,852 |
bf17aca54dbf4e7fbce3fafd9d66860f73fef723 | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0x77542667c879b6a2d8571243decb29da6f209e7622422593fad59711cdba321b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-fre-2025-11-01 | Will Union Berlin vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | 78,461,852 | 78,461,852 |
6372e94cba744599b397cd64d42ec53306ebed6b | 0x25218099155cdb82f7eb6f0d5e857db9a63ec3cb | 0xd608371cde69e478a508339ef02e033badb03e39ffe95a062adcf6366a98ff3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-esp-geo-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? | Event: uef-prt-ire-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | Event: uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,469,967 | 78,469,967 |
e300d622c86c9e0aba59d8db37b693c389302efa | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x1f20134d60c6af4ba4f1d30c42c970bf5c010aff7f9204312dc7f9018c3e1a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League?
Event: champions-league-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 54,640,933 | 54,640,933 |
095ee1fe4e3ca4d406ddd2d8ca571c6e2243a40e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x653483009043f1663360bc35ed8fb542d3f9453916082d20ff025adaa2fe7032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Event: democratic-nominee-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target m... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 61,780,242 | 61,780,242 |
86ab3e307f0b22ad9608a6831a4f16220d3d0e2b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x2bd18efe785cf24002cfa38a37413739062aa370499b3a5831d202e64596c426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Rodri w... | yes | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,628,666 | 63,628,666 |
91c0f8712a8b389b550d7475be948a9f8b908b29 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xdf2cf66c49a15e646079c5c3823d97bfdaa607c6111bd4cc508f5db980809368 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | 100-monkeypox-cases-in-us-by-october-31 | 100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | 63,755,180 | 63,755,180 |
d2e191a565fba38d1593e58dffa237028e785c14 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa1d06c273030c75b85ecfee08b2ff1f0e510c07f12152f81c707eb83deaab8ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | No change in Fed raise interest rates after its 2024 March meeting? | 63,792,981 | 63,792,981 |
f90ea720ed1c12e62bf1f15342ac4b4385e5ded1 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xef4177523abd78683c37867cbb24f97474c6f6c184463c5f06828588ffc32f74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | will-bayern-munich-win-the-bundesliga-2023-24 | Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 2023-24? | 63,916,241 | 63,916,241 |
fa883e3c63773660940af54b99155c2aa848b7e4 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf7fb94eb08c13612869e9854a9e57e589c21abea7f7cfc53ab01292844e10c71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,952,917 | 63,952,917 |
b13f57ab112cc8942335ce2f2d203250278e1e1d | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 63,970,849 | 63,970,849 |
3ebfadc3dbd42bfe7da761f2e2bd0ebd5b113337 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa10585d295fd84294c356b51e66d2e1babe1de48c42c1aec743d6a4a8965b68f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Will Trump win no swing states? | 63,970,849 | 63,970,849 |
7b48058e4ddd4c05cd314366c6a130676f59d4ed | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x1fc1e5595adab4d8160b2fe72cfed61131e3d5e61b5c334160d1729d7380ab16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | 64,026,203 | 64,026,203 |
714a2e50cd86cf1977a836d00a9846079fa47ceb | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x7d9a43bd2690f796900680ad88d02134d4ba70761c19f2de9ea59c5b6f55830a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,115,882 | 64,115,882 |
a6d717f6814c31bafa9c56f04975d85a689e751d | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x7d72074a017bb2b409b5291e417034b5c6203d420e068b3edbf5ad5ca0cd589a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | 64,173,107 | 64,173,107 |
3caaac5e4f4e6b44258cca76ab0d9dc9210f89d6 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x774a794d4ae191161577e20f029ed54590946c1094798f7348994cd28dd4b952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25? | 64,747,340 | 64,747,340 |
9f5277f3e8e51224b09f735c8b8e6ae4f596566a | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xdeed500651a34d11e298bcfb1b3ceaf4b955b3c9435026ec6dec3800429bfcdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | 64,747,340 | 64,747,340 |
453b630e165e64dc283fc0ab74e9141aea90ce32 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x0ea40115b1fdcbcc73c7172e0beb4c8506e5d48f794470169a38dc27219bbf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
dbfa4dd0a7b6772df9ef2a6f4d68d5094ad1929f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x2d294a457e49c6f47873360f032dc1dd40d16e547f58807c8e0546c56d57ba15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
31e9b9b103c6d96c04ff4dc97f6d141ca3949201 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x307e2fffe64bae2836d4708f90e433b40af04078ea4320bba18319c1a4880cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
e8c907c39ccb222db43cdfa17990d6cccd5dc588 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x667cdccba3726dad74c7df779523a304044760d19f33016ad0c37e7cb162bfa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Everton vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
b8e8836ccbed0b5c486de6ec111b8f4dfca73277 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
897f7942b4fae1f550342e96874a1a4f8a46bc4b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xd226783f2690b9b6799586ac42b88e5b3fbc0a7385eaa2e833d50e1270876482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,101 | 65,106,101 |
dbd043f5cd996a4b90caa2f6b73224856dc2497d | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x232e86716562f4a91c9128f4cfb8b29f8603b84b6dbf02bb820c06c6b749aa8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 65,106,107 | 65,106,107 |
cdb43c5a7b3aae6d9a32a89332025deac94521c8 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x5bc697fa00f49ca43fcbd83728106d630911f9b59b784c41f0e26bdccbfc0ebe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,107 | 65,106,107 |
af557fc2e1b2fb8dca153eb1783e6c667afa4b81 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x64632390f51d5933e0ba653563d38f04931e75253dcb011365d2d4a95523f01c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,107 | 65,106,107 |
b7a8a035eab8d5d157b93d0dd84cdad2fcedbd3e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa61dcf88d83ced6761ecad0db43fbb0ba8668af3f4efb21041c7d898300beba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 65,106,107 | 65,106,107 |
8fe40b9163af48c580a06440df8fabf490f97cb1 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf65e713945e09e0a8559c46e02ea70a46c5e264d28e990398d0ba13191b3f147 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04? | 65,106,107 | 65,106,107 |
29f9a0768a14a0509ae88df1f39145e13f2310c5 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x79b7bf06ea3da433c50cd395f898ee55537c7d9e86fd7e020066ced99a8f06c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | 65,133,785 | 65,133,785 |
79e814ee989c783015a9ce9e1af1d38463b90e9b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xda7188bb483cfed6e8c4150b6b8ed0e764358f3b97f493decdb6109c59da04f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,159,309 | 65,159,309 |
c105b4b752a64f2b0b1d0668af3f7e37df6a4503 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xfd8167b6e1bd8189de282d81341af6028cdf6b51f3f04fa1a6bd62b38fd6b74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | 65,159,309 | 65,159,309 |
99a7cc42b46d1a9d6390482c23bd0d7952af9b0b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf541ee22a9f375939dbecb4675e14077d9032e0d3350adabaa85a63edf2b395e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 0.000027 | factcheck-brian-thompson-perp-motivated-by-denied-claims | Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | 65,319,034 | 65,319,034 |
a03350691670629426dd08f8b94cd681c247960e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x31ed456ee297ae730f248630ede1c6bb30eb39e616611a995cb9a3a02d95e837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
9c03a42602a550cf0730fd36b89951b0a288c976 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x581375f8ccc080c949d7dbbc2af80ddee38c849f86401b38bb00502dd901bf63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
a339c538ab9bd29d5439ac6e7f9f6b42fdc254c1 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa5aeffa26126c3a16e21e7331c3fe7fe4e7895fe9af17885fb2fdf903c0e8e27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Even... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
d76a0e10c567c59f4904ac3d18d19cc0942e4160 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xbc7a5e7106ad6b3d9c51f7e5152c04faf29ae2f471fd9c8e12ffaa3f5d7a6335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | Event: ballon-dor-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Event: 100-monkeypox-cases-in-us-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: No change in Fed raise interest rates after its 2024 M... | no | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
00ba7ebefc744c3b48a1e3d3a3ef0906beb6c316 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf8c6c4704c68db1d81146b7214bc2e3e887630248e59b900ae75cf598c110ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? | Event: 100-monkeypox-cases-in-us-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed raise interest rates after its 2024 March meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ba... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
6b59851ea718f525cbb50fefdb311d18a63e1966 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf904926acf35ab9a6070ce9c98c05dc29dfa5ad096efb045b76e775065be5e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed raise interest rates after its 2024 March meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-march-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 2023-24? | Event: will-bayern-munich-win-the-bundesliga-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | 65,425,031 | 65,425,031 |
189738063637caad9f360bafba927abf6ce58da2 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x1ac8b8b60718a12b2b4c01fc024cd13bd4b984c32bce8b5b36398cba4e993070 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 2023-24? | Event: will-bayern-munich-win-the-bundesliga-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | penguins | 0 | nhl-pit-ott-2024-12-14 | Penguins vs. Senators | 65,493,543 | 65,513,542 |
2627678fec1e2ad667fb96eed8869c66f2612d7f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa110eff966e8ac8e6ba998e50b609bef0d86df7fa41893d23aa27cda802ff620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump w... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-cry-2024-12-15 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? | 65,523,286 | 65,523,286 |
f7595293d32346b4bfae93130c98e3f9f8472e41 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xfafebf74590538c2a145609240bbba810d491b742cb02a816b38ef5f6c9eec1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | Event: hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump win no swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed increases interest rates by... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | 65,527,572 | 65,527,572 |
a7f4df22ad543e6e4c4fa2d56164d8c63f20fd76 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x97587c58a3407fcc9a8df6396aaa8b66eff8b0c799fdf81880f258755b7d529c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump win no swing states? | Event: how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat ... | no | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-100k-again-in-2024-dec-23 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | 65,992,029 | 65,992,029 |
f5fdc4514541bfd4512af5c80aca87db8bf1e435 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x39bdb149c17d848c0ce90e452822878287bcd576bac2c552aa33f5d96b9c501d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-november-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? | 66,184,919 | 66,184,919 |
51992631671c4f789b0f52ee9b1e06f11704f4c3 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x4585d0aace66b55b7c8063c01eb58a471feaf99f0f390a33bcd2919faea4eac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle w... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? | 66,184,919 | 66,184,919 |
33f39fed96954ad83b82f2ff030b4393235733c0 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xdca85943cda4d8822e2277e8cdad22cd7a03d0383d0e517aa17ce0e3ee2c6115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-november | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-n... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? | 66,184,919 | 66,184,919 |
c94f9cb891cc5051100495f6f477a8fd203f57b1 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xbe75404f50964d383198c48dfffd897a6b64dc8d391c2a7951e6417017d69227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Ch... | no | 0.768189 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $430B on January 31? | 67,293,522 | 67,386,403 |
ecb1f18ba428df59ea8f1972fd64972fdc5173fd | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x02444dec7b53bd60b91ac0c69ce1cf3940989deccecbf50096815ca9b3ead948 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | 67,386,403 | 67,386,403 |
b210fae480842440b655395128a794266c9e9b0f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x316f4a75bf7e742942d41d6514a86d476bb7ca2aa1b94d2f8485b293082d10ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440B and $445B on January 31? | 67,386,403 | 67,386,403 |
4c7138e9f0193775a6ab121bb12c327a6d39d094 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x3a5337aee3b4086360445e601e08b9409059ce89c0bf0b3dff4ac9ba7d7130e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435B and $440B on January 31 | 67,386,403 | 67,386,403 |
3640a161cdfc1c8434527c599623b876f8679f7f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x704efbb483906aac2e30fe0250d2c944cc8da99ed326a2488f397ebd3bf503ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be $450B or more on January 31? | 67,386,403 | 67,386,403 |
965fdc5d9f1c74953a8cb4f85fc83edd2ed7108e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x7fac4ea5489310605975def8792935457a79d1f0f3595a69ebd32a8ef51692cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $445B and $450B on January 31? | 67,386,403 | 67,386,403 |
dcbc5ab12020f5f7e8756a41a1321d60c966a8c3 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x134bc0bb11dd106662b5d8412bbc404548891e34b6b019a1da19c26b23dda475 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: ... | yes | 0.077128 | us-10y-treasury-yield-above-5-by-june-30 | US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | 68,065,058 | 68,065,058 |
faa08be9978c37bc6af3c2b108b87b67ac8eef70 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x3396435293c97c4c0d27c8a3a4444a8e460d472ffd3554a812864e7acc02a192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Even... | no | 0.000003 | new-pope-in-2025 | New Pope in 2025? | 68,527,020 | 68,527,020 |
fdfdbc777c428c89a0955005e8ae8ce8da98cc3b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x445d1599c6a870b958b0fbe58a545ef67042293020d00bf734444f6026a8dfaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | 68,591,758 | 68,591,758 |
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