sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8d0a81ae8902ef6897ff38f7a1c30fde33374dfb | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,923,238 | 77,923,238 |
f2cab85efcf4ae5fcee1a5415e83b6bb3a495e72 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x1fe002d3c34771256457713c1702a79379d90be6500c511f5ac82c23407fdc0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on October 12? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
47a3e60fbbdba9ac56e7e2db5243236ea531ca3f | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x25b3dbe878dc19e8d05629c6d1facb497bd000170f66052e97569f7e599577a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 12? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
5250e24931673a2840e164720cfd0ffb2651f127 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x317985bee8a67a877c3934528653654d66ede3687d942f53af27c1ebe3a535a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-945 | Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
180e9f2b746741f8b70c4f736e6cd5a96025ebc0 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x35a1c719b5cdad74f49027fdbfb939efe7f8f6f6e2cfb272cb5deebfc168f84f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 13? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
a3a65b0bdb8afda55de154f5a60c26ab251f3655 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x601b9cdbb295b8c47c25bfc68360236462118741c0864a824e9c00db90b21e37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 15? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
dacefd8f7b2bd5e413c5417351e0175b67d5eea6 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x7e538e5762ab06e7ede3aaa9bae02603f4da7ca0d937448da9865357e58f1334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 14? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
ffd07ee62609325173a653f0a5ced64ac4182b2d | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0xc30d9650af49285c055a6ad6a096ea8db715b0f86390beec14497aa933fcf679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 13? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
36a61aa0a606dd6c6d48f3eb9d155aeaa4e42f92 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0xc5c1fa75707ba51fc34fc411dd1ec438c57939047922bbfea745c29fcfefa4a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on October 13? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
4dc42b1922a130aa0bbc0bdd76875e79ef32cb7b | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0xcb6ab1f15772b315b37eb32a625138f2b1d1e4d8134287bad952ed8d119c5384 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 12? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
9bc50f5b73e3e11d4505711cc996df9eb973214c | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0xfb3f36b739c942fc6ed7d271fceb5da28fd276ee6637bbeab5a66e0937d475a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 13? | 78,459,791 | 78,459,791 |
4ee389f1587a02ab862ca382fca7362ad6ad7f52 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x16f294938e44233a3164044f8c00f7b63abc7480b3c507e0482076302c2fb545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on October 14? | 78,459,792 | 78,459,792 |
6f14db8b2ee285494fcd26b922e748d73db946c3 | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x18faa1cc2887ed386104362bbd75fd15c3a961ea3b2e32fe6a9d419c76da9ada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on October 14? | 78,459,792 | 78,459,792 |
b172e07bdfc2e4ad6675e450408825142a60774a | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x36b0f832555f58a51771e74ce16867f1ad81269c72666fdb1548e90c3a773a52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 15? | 78,459,792 | 78,459,792 |
2e4c65faef22da53274499346b9315643ee2ad4b | 0x24431b45390dfc93c06d90940593e6ab8db0354c | 0x47aa01e2f28e8e4c865be8af09a10b41e0ace90cf692a46fb05068073bc39331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5698746321130906
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on October 14? | 78,459,792 | 78,459,792 |
f62b1a947c890077c2f488e1d77a5a184702215e | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xce295bc26fb49a30737aba33d7333b719b28408a5a053bcf6b6c85d03cd5c3b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Event: next-japanese-prime-minister
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | next-japanese-prime-minister | Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | 78,100,191 | 78,100,191 |
bb571a0c700f055ca85f81e4b839b3eb0a482d48 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x113180003722c3a38690f828aea8925a4305eae12edd53582bccdfe3c25f6679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25?
Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output str... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | 78,160,163 | 78,160,163 |
0fb36e2d4f34226dc106ce5750756cf9a9f646e0 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x0ae685020213ae644b442caef26093e68a71c661302b11e3593995e71ad97f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in... | yes | 0.6 | sea-tor-gen-2025-10-26 | Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | 78,211,269 | 78,211,269 |
a7bbabc3a43c26f25018d68aaf463faa0661dfd8 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xea014a2f52b72f25de0e61d74897fea205f48966804277019e685145f96a1bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 0.142831 | sea-tor-gen-2025-10-26 | Will Genoa win on 2025-10-26? | 78,211,269 | 78,211,269 |
607a35ecf5dc938cbe270ae5aa1492e5bbea3741 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xcb400553eb2c4110d1bdc74bffb0c81f5069f81c91f8f342cdfa2c510e29661b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | suns | 0.025712 | nba-phx-uta-2025-10-28 | Suns vs. Jazz | 78,262,646 | 78,262,646 |
9f23e724b55f4b9b3e11c63656f3f8a4fe3dbb3c | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xe1d89897997f0250cb26dc4be11db9f0ab54c1ad64c98db567981ad7e4bde88a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | los angeles dodgers | 0.398763 | mlb-tor-lad-2025-10-27 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | 78,262,646 | 78,262,646 |
c7aecf6633dc8aee412d37f36cccc19dcf7c4526 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xfe36558007596674a15545f35cc99757e0b1d9092fe9e5e6bd884fea2aaa8727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | timberwolves | 0.255695 | nba-den-min-2025-10-28 | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 78,262,646 | 78,262,646 |
8b0098814a9fe9851f6d3e9dd1c6669f2a78b841 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x53fb571585ff1c58b24a249127869a189fd7d5c2bf0460b7b2df5edae8aeb839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-lad-2025-10-27 | Blue Jays vs. Dodgers | 78,262,646 | 78,276,212 |
a19248db5e6e6092f3e73ffa37c459e3a55a0da8 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xf852ffdd7cc8e59c8c00e23ecddc9d58405c9c7f1efdb8ba6b54cdf3fac71461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | kenin | 0 | wta-kenin-sakatsu-2025-10-28 | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sofia Kenin vs Himeno Sakatsume | 78,265,261 | 78,265,261 |
6ee0ed86992e327789e38518aff1aa62df967e91 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xc56b46f64fb24a8385281e1ea084efd7531ba4144815b4fada393c615cd9e941 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | pridankina | 0 | wta-yuan-pridank-2025-10-28 | Jiangxi Open: Yue Yuan vs Elena Pridankina | 78,265,261 | 78,265,373 |
3b08ab7165278f9bfd318c258c24669c5ddd6bdb | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x6c17f56d2b6a236262d4bb48758f8b60e3b34699cceea4818563cbc4094c1a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | hanwha life esports | 0.000375 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner | 78,266,043 | 78,266,043 |
d6fcc7eb4732273c12b6b7087607df83bd5e51c0 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x30153000de3d440b9d08deb6a7c1c1e9513f488a6fba7ab1c5441dffce773521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | hanwha life esports | 0.081081 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | 78,271,548 | 78,271,548 |
754794ef97c7526aab7b4ae1d7bfbcef4d1df832 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x7f29a89cda687ee85856b030ac53f99580c5f4bdc44d180b2249cd19f7f6d64c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | fonseca | 0 | atp-shapova-fonseca-2025-10-27 | Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca | 78,277,000 | 78,295,157 |
ab6f4043fa10b0d6aa49bf2edfed59a469f7cebf | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x6e1cb648bf2370d6d8f18606d344466f5d349558ebc4bf5c0d885dddc926f5c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | clippers | 0.003581 | nba-lac-gsw-2025-10-29 | Clippers vs. Warriors | 78,303,763 | 78,308,506 |
ed59517a744ff0e21bd17ada110f2cde0c1520fa | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xf369bfe8cb571a0fbae7bf0e18334355474e35b0d06528f91822734986210baa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | ctbc flying oyster | 0.294094 | lol-kt-cfo-2025-10-29 | LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner | 78,310,156 | 78,310,514 |
b4587f904f4d568b57ce0ca910cb1672a6111b25 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x1299113d5323723859a31c4ff40a864774fa55c6bd7cc42ff5ab7cdeb53be58d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 0.599943 | chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? | 78,407,669 | 78,407,669 |
2de4167773c8cda785b113e02585865cc979b540 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xed392bf9a84aa992e4761ec4676c3eef992d3ca390aaf2ec3a8a9fd4e8865410 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | under | 0.819692 | lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Games Total: O/U 3.5 | 78,440,245 | 78,440,245 |
be606eacbfbcf32f151135a310008590acdfce62 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xda6190d1af30fe9c4271ea916da89729639b79087191addd83c658d8d5173e50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | no | 0 | kor-san-poh-2025-11-01 | Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? | 78,441,517 | 78,441,517 |
8aa1e6ddde88cab3059699493ad0e85b8fd09420 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x0b2dc07eea2594f3d5d3b93ce0a8b354edb99b2382c685e4dcfbbf1bdb46771d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | over | 0 | lol-gen-kt-2025-11-01 | Games Total: O/U 4.5 | 78,442,719 | 78,442,719 |
6c15500c7ec928d76f6834cef9f5210fac8c4aa5 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x893b437386ebac380985fdbf89532f251a248ff4216a44a6d3c8f987056ddb27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | kor-any-uls-2025-11-01 | Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-01? | 78,448,257 | 78,448,257 |
ee3b875dd2508f96fadaddec7373030558f995c5 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x4760c4d2d39a9c9a2c7d506c37df924ef2e0aa755c91dbdc9334f2d786415035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | over | 0 | cfb-ga-fl-2025-11-01 | O/U 50.5 | 78,476,574 | 78,476,574 |
f61c6bb7920a1c74c0f289e1f0858b08aa69b0a7 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x7ff7c66a825e0c1d773db9666f4f45ef550c7f851c53cb5d1303d697a51c74c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | air force | 0.333333 | cfb-army-airf-2025-11-01 | Army vs. Air Force | 78,476,574 | 78,476,574 |
adfacfaed20c1e72a4928638788bba71131bee9d | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x9e3a313bd06125130ec7350f032a59e8b9d809714c22018ecbab567d112e22cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | oklahoma | 0 | cfb-okl-tenn-2025-11-01 | Oklahoma vs. Tennessee | 78,476,574 | 78,483,255 |
9536311c8c2fe718f3d544ae3375595e47d37e5f | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x15120ee804e671c4a939a93470a83ce70e22d2b9cf3f3abd834cde0ac21b4510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | mex-atl-tol-2025-11-01 | Will Atlas FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | 78,483,255 | 78,483,255 |
34f2751ddd08dacc5bfcfb44d68459c00358c074 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xf53bb92c4c91b19a08620a3a60335c7c233a2263d032685b75f3b1e2dd9c96a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-01? | 78,483,255 | 78,483,255 |
fcd747b825a7eb8e084023d9d2734766f1605c03 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xd650b028ab659f94026b2a96b9d7d6e808ad9fba7101d4476a96186a15025fff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | blinkova | 0 | wta-blinkov-tagger-2025-11-02 | Jiangxi Open: Anna Blinkova vs Lilli Tagger | 78,483,292 | 78,483,374 |
fbad5f938b3a1476d7dc86bf85f451bd4452bd4f | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x20de2f39fb3b6204b8539d791f45ca3b4d602dfeb5aedf0ca18bf2184587700b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | no | 0.329469 | tur-gen-iba-2025-11-07 | Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2025-11-07? | 78,728,915 | 78,728,915 |
68009946b826aa4dd9d3ea44b7afa76f26b3adf4 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xd6295dc156fd3c4a6e5cc662b1035c6b006debb35ed3cdf448e587f71aa5a949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | no | 0.998926 | den-ode-sif-2025-11-07 | Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,728,915 | 78,728,915 |
51a9ac9e2e1affdde8cb43e4e8953d362e92cd3f | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x86c515e6d1bb9e852347c8dc9350365ecf4da047667a794cc00173dd7d9473e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | no | 0.428571 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,737,431 | 78,737,431 |
1ffa3d18d81c7cb6dadabdae1eb18d331a1e9a8c | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x6659b4d837bc1ed77a29891045678fd744c311954080447e33f39ee12fb5cf20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | australia | 0 | t20-aus-ind-2025-11-08 | Australia T20 Series: Australia vs India (Game 5) | 78,744,150 | 78,752,171 |
b7045268676dc29c7bab64bcbe76866b67b396aa | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0xdb254294208fa5745768e898ffb6807ad34d56bb3aa7111f3997d3cd052a0823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Event: next-japanese-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 0.124714 | aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,745,098 | 78,748,242 |
4922a53829e9ffcf1bdea27ffcbc846600a56302 | 0x2457045b02ee623ec801085003b22bfc607b54ac | 0x0fbf99e9ecb2e787a4c74acd89925542c280cc0a21fb07536d8d793fd9b05c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | Event: bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Torino vs. Genoa end in a draw? | Event: sea-tor-gen-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6
3. Question: Will Genoa win on 2025-10-26? | Event: sea-tor-gen-2025-10-26 | Cho... | no | 0.285719 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Girona win on 2025-11-08? | 78,752,345 | 78,752,345 |
1c1848d1e0b84e750ba3dc078c99f0b75f5ec330 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x82e6d4f23e64c593bbf1e84be4b0b7dd1d31798e6a53c2b8ab60603bd4684aa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | 77,580,441 | 77,580,441 |
7ff4b85cae76ed456637d1b206f0b963473127c9 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xa6f9e47637344cf48fc882e379e1e565f4474e8161b6fb1f608157913786c9b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?
Event: american-league-winner-2025
Pred... | no | 1 | american-league-winner-2025 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | 77,580,441 | 77,580,441 |
422826befffc77a23019f27cc533c161acce1e45 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xb1de8e4de72cc5674815e0ac09adce40ba94f3dec50e64ea15918f109fa58339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 77,580,441 | 77,580,441 |
b95eaa86932f116c7b533f40b8a62ca2102be869 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xb96edcc6ed23513e079bce51b512e317f64153a54cc4f870198374c0ce0765bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister-469 | Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? | 77,580,441 | 77,580,441 |
b059569082fa4af1c98b37dd269cec00981f09d6 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x9aca3f0ee88c5a9de287c9f1456496f0a2c72f212583020db259f0a34ec31311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | 77,776,341 | 77,776,341 |
2423325e56ce1895abb7ec660d2da71aa4406a57 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x66010f724a2a6a718dc3ea96d2afe5f0a61cdf5b46f3fc68b4fcd411c9de091a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.045184 | israel-strikes-gaza-by-october-17 | Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? | 77,776,351 | 77,776,351 |
9154d22a767376504225f824e2f6b025bae6aa28 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xf96f560e3270c03657333d6de1e82171ae403d038d3563fbd04eb27ff3237fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | soul-on-fire-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m? | 77,776,353 | 77,776,353 |
3ce7a35828963c6b97616ce039eec8bddf3ad9a7 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xfed02e621292aa4d1d5574c34f9e30d95efd47cae58844e5a716c4997b967a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 10? | 77,776,355 | 77,776,355 |
a06e07801ca0b4f83787249e2f97f7bf3054996d | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x6a73ddfcca8dab7516db12efd4cb4cd1ca02873fbbd028867bebe062b7c14107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | 77,776,360 | 77,776,360 |
038bea747702a81118384773da5dceaccf9ac244 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x2fe9ed191baf6270484eb5ea676e9f38b6a7898b288a4592be8107475a73a2ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | french-election-called-by | French election called by December 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
0ae820bd5b076025eb820712e7600669f7f58d1e | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x6c03292e9176cc6ae5d370a628caf73eefa7c48c75bfbbaa8a3f41d68dcfed54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.000004 | d4vd-arrested-by-october-31 | D4vd arrested by October 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
e089bc567c3f92c1569e9e5dcc1f3eb087205338 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x9d1e122ce82f7acd66088e2e6216ca732b38fee26cee312156e854f975c28776 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.333178 | lighter-airdop-by | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
7ebbb4349dad974c0bbc54b921031d54713dc971 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xa529f6172053308b6a658c516cd03ead5fb3a2e75769e20bc369fe2bfd750173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.025638 | who-will-acquire-tiktok-559 | Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
f0c4079164a301c63bdf2677ceea1fdc7cdda107 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xb65d38b20b1405e0f246ce4ae2d027a17537986d7af927cabf974eff17e0868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.500002 | gemini-3pt0-released-by | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
03cf33c54759b8f1f7d05fbf61c25e239971b03a | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xbc19cb5c84d57f2fed2b089a1634d63d7ad608da3100f5006c00782db44453d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000043 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
2b84923958140a0f0d747437b8c97bfba50d81b9 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xced8415db324bbd074c06910431b6307b35038effa16dec54cf802425147a962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.018051 | nothing-ever-happens-airdrops-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
53838c0b47cd76ce3505f2826ad9d7638a84dc03 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xe7ea46ccb3ad14ee6c67cbcfde86b97347387c18a638c428db427a3178060348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.284908 | megaeth-airdrop-by | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
f0619db7d1b2eb80b4fe9b91ff92ad1e4de0a74f | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xf5b8106bf2429e116bb5baa183224692be9bb59b8947bb4fa7c9151ed49fa98d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.166667 | kinetiq-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 77,776,405 | 77,776,405 |
3eb94f810d9e374e4448b2324b0ba03a142d5c3a | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x0740971434d78fc1b374520e1dc8f70b686f90422f6813ee298f4b78bf7f9c86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000043 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2025 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
8110ce6cd04a29bc90beac50125679bbcbd29a24 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000062 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
c0426f38f44059b765edc087865cff32adcde376 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x46008513fc27438dabf7a8ab44c8e066381e115aebed1e14b55d0108bfd1e35b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | measles-cases-in-us-before-2026 | Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
085a51390bc47d5597620f180d899047f29b2d6d | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x69e655152b96e00074ff3d83c2f6e0cf98c965d698641547931dce42ee96c9f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.430281 | will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-train-station-by-september-30 | Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
57ca7e68ab06e198e22993e772987281e6e5552f | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x72d20125487e610964c2607401dccfc416cce1aa7c25fd40f30f139975f7cac5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.277024 | will-pumpfun-hit-0pt01-in-2025 | Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
b5df51cf5eca52f3ca6a363c13aa99fed0fd6d19 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x81bdbfeb9aa17c7ef097559edc77bcc7079a93492ea68d1d77d149c095e58825 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000086 | aster-all-time-high-by-december-31 | Aster all time high by December 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
8790d852b9fda861772e59233170af2486b7cc19 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x895d67a76468fc41c90c84e4a1e7d294d2c1b4d35024b3a6a67e4e3bb4f51265 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.253759 | meteora-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
8942ca4ad565b06c540375c9c046d5598c46c7e6 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xa1324f2f9d9bb179df84ba70d1d2785dc58f3bfcfe632038579c97e3eb07271d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000051 | will-curtis-sliwa-drop-out-458 | Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
feca7c610b3460edbf80e8c78bd24c4975d7dabb | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xa213729f8d884142499847f751e097828142fddb406c7d35f0d2ab193c09f79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.333339 | will-russia-capture-yampil-by-october-31 | Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
7dfcb5b2e65bf7a16e8defa4b0c1ff7945434763 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xa75027ddbd883169b0fef4779c912106fe9460536240a1d613d175f04b75ca25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.008708 | opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
8d4741be84cb16adf204447bc69dd23bbd3d0816 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xaa368b9b8a22b8fd9338f3e46b4ce5f856233ac5ff45e30557384846279acee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000085 | hyperliquid-all-time-high-by-december-31-637 | Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
f995e716c0b7f210f80cbde55ba2da58d5d33dcb | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.178018 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
b5f4e7d13221d59651a829b002a31f138c886f77 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xc9e2530a614f466f969911a5995748ea8786b45d8cdb58be6a926b55d29d4f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? | Event: 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.00003 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
993d789ce97b23ded64841ca81ab9a57ad6ff4ab | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xdad84023bf7a64f70426a14f63c379a578b2c647eb5a2b76ab73469e7abcc002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship? | Event: american-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 0.000057 | another-france-debt-downgrade-by-december-31 | Another France debt downgrade by December 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
b8adb9c954fcb8fc0bbbfcda1a0f6014cb75fb12 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xdcba3e3759acd474e4871563c66d1c085dd4c3dc719cb472fc9c28e60c3bf6ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? | Event: next-french-prime-minister-469 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.532821 | trump-invokes-the-insurrection-act-in-2025 | Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
07f0c3a840ba76994d86a6fc8594e3cd693e3c97 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xffff6c984d7adab19e799c46d1a478d5ab6483479b41f9639d04617f07a8bab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? | Event: next-french-prime-minister-469 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0.358215 | will-trump-visit-china-by | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | 77,776,406 | 77,776,406 |
f8ac9027f43e52909e05c97c63019b7ca9e5150c | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x1df71b9868a4f08ecaf84d02e6603eec4233f32894e30bd0e9d3cebe57b4b47c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-3-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? | Event: israel-strikes-gaza-by-october-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04518444272267771
3.... | no | 0.515987 | will-zcash-flip-monero-by-december-31 | Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
dbe39a7856e479e987bd0bc6b0729ac14bd2f0c5 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x2d235edb5e8ce065ad4eca19e994f4475555463ccba89e1a69e3c11c79abadf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? | Event: israel-strikes-gaza-by-october-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.04518444272267771
2. Question: Will "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m? | Event: soul-on-fire-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 0.000132 | will-sora-be-the-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on | Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
778b6aa42ee76b6309965cb72dbf9cf698c3c17e | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x4a626036665e1210bf12b659b82c4a18354d01c05381bf4f3ffe0302268d48e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Soul on Fire" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m? | Event: soul-on-fire-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-10 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.700274 | pumpfun-airdop-by | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
276980eacf92bad8bf44c8b446e20d6477d781fa | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x541918785acfdf02fa02536ebd4046995ee0e519cd835b4623c7dcb6fde7d9b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-... | no | 0.000116 | hyperliquid-airdop-by | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
d353991edd57ab2a8b6744ef10de23d58eb5f2b6 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x85ee123356f006ffea82fb7763b2156faf7a3507012633a613826f1997e9f566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: French election called by December 31? | Event: french-election-called-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: D4vd ... | no | 0 | next-bls-jobs-report-during-government-shutdown | Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
79d2a461d2994ae2ac105145c839f213b2e81d8c | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x8b6133bf4987fd2b714b1296123faba31fd4a7ff8ffd47abc316e77d9bd2be97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: French election called by December 31? | Event: french-election-called-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: D4vd arrested by October 31? | Event: d4vd-arrested-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.40748057402937e-06
3. Question: Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? ... | no | 0.9998 | which-boroughs-will-mamdani-win-in-nyc-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
aa54f4079154d2e1c297e95862841373f41414f4 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xd82f82dcfd70186578857091769e5471ebc539ac36caecbc3056b6dd87e80fe0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: D4vd arrested by October 31? | Event: d4vd-arrested-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.40748057402937e-06
2. Question: Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Event: lighter-airdop-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3331778232264368
3. Question: Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquir... | no | 0.000083 | measles-cases-in-us-before-2026 | Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
b9e9b9432cca4377a6f96471f6d7bf41533a8525 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xde4f68bdf49deb8984dcf3e644027779bfb8159a97b5bcfb75ae316e9b8a5b01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Event: lighter-airdop-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3331778232264368
2. Question: Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | Event: who-will-acquire-tiktok-559 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.025637790937223456
3. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be... | yes | 0.00005 | zohran-mamdani-parlay | Zohran Mamdani Parlay | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
053dd841e6ce4bfc7e8ae81d617fe045c113aa78 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xe9febe1bab42376a758541f4e445bc5acd7c10e4e4e57b46b7fc86d0faaa4acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | Event: who-will-acquire-tiktok-559 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.025637790937223456
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Event: gemini-3pt0-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5000015336408239
3. Question: Israel x Hamas ce... | yes | 0.000089 | nothing-ever-happens-world-leader-out-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition | 77,776,407 | 77,776,407 |
984643e8828881d267c7126973f635088134f40d | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x005aa3a9e019fade8240f0651b631d27fa74549aed52dea9a95a5de9533b119f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Event: gemini-3pt0-released-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5000015336408239
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.309814247005954e-05... | no | 0.000091 | who-will-trump-talk-to-in-october | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
17c04a7fb2ff7486d395d9c80ce01278b4a87347 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x5dc1896bbb5bb26acedeeb1a21db4b97ba21bf9745e350249e91e6ceb8a47db3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.309814247005954e-05
2. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | Event: nothing-ever-happens-airdrops-edition | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01805... | no | 0.000143 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2025 | Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
3c80684c70984e9803da76fe51a84748d2a576e2 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x6830f5868d794655bc325a8e414fae1944755f513796a498aba43d8911b22e91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | Event: nothing-ever-happens-airdrops-edition | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.01805091472779674
2. Question: Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? | Event: megaeth-airdrop-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2849080757554941
3. Question: Kinetiq FD... | yes | 0.01932 | will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-july | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
d3b93f2a7f532701c4777c59c0567b3512f48410 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x6c3616476be8d52eb72fe8fc644c61c96a568b34a73aad6c3e7bbccffebe64ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? | Event: megaeth-airdrop-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2849080757554941
2. Question: Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Event: kinetiq-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16666666666666666
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0.168545 | nothing-ever-happens-russian-capture-edition | Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Edition | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
bbcdd1a77896474f83e22adecc65646e6bece913 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x89f4e3a08d3c39a9af5d6177c18d90b537228599375ff81ac5171da7921cb204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Event: kinetiq-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16666666666666666
2. Question: Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.290466143807522e-05
3. Ques... | no | 0.94823 | will-russia-capture-rodynske-by-september-15 | Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
74fc3a13640e8634dd6fc2085f79f76cb8577c3b | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xcc16cf145731cea7010e311de31a9fd0e5bd6103f40cd146187749f9673f6f4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.290466143807522e-05
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.181171580543798e-... | yes | 0.000173 | eu-sanctions-on-israel-by-december-31 | EU sanctions on Israel by December 31? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
34c54c2c700105d39607a857cf1bc4a2a6c06190 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xea1f601faf600380da04e1ce3d46fc4c7dfea5e6247550b2b513761cb40f0a9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 6.181171580543798e-05
2. Question: Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? | Event: measles-cases-in-us-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 0.486051 | lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
5b4666a18be51feacb9aa39b95cc6ab167369214 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xf568a742c994f314126e0be0a1592dea614c5cefa012fab74837ede2ff7533f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? | Event: measles-cases-in-us-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31? | Event: will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-train-station-by-september-30 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 0.00012 | will-china-lift-rare-earths-export-ban-by-december-31 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
0273182829641a44f7118248eafd16c746a0fbb9 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xfc5206c7093949bf2ac461bea591e144f7426c1a3af19ff229924cc65d151966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31? | Event: will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-train-station-by-september-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4302810523800197
2. Question: Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | Event: will-pumpfun-hit-0pt01-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.27702... | no | 0.03875 | japanese-snap-election-called-in-2025 | Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31, 2025? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
26e04bd09b31e4e3d7831668682c8cf1d2433bd3 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | Event: will-pumpfun-hit-0pt01-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.27702379926310855
2. Question: Aster all time high by December 31? | Event: aster-all-time-high-by-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.578959463275741e-05
3. Question: Meteora FDV above... | yes | 0.000093 | us-recession-by-end-of-2026 | US recession by end of 2026? | 77,776,408 | 77,776,408 |
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