sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85f0a53883599e5986878962e5d271f6dca57f8b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x6104608801f44f9a32275c9a9bbe044414a64956000a1177362be5ef27e5ac44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars... | no | 0 | will-trump-administration-announces-end-of-ukraine-aid-by-next-friday | Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday? | 68,609,112 | 68,609,112 |
5b2ebb4e91d7c9f98ae7cd5edcc3c2161b966e39 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x20f301a6eed80333e59dce66fbd319663e3934c271f01be7a67dd0e2a8fa5343 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-202... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8? | 68,845,336 | 68,845,336 |
ea543fdff37e4a4df6f51cf10becaab5d43ae350 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x4de4778f60e6586bf4062709de8398d3ada24c5ac11443c8e20eeb5c15b3d37d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event: epl-ars-mun-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8? | 68,845,336 | 68,845,336 |
87b67f1d6d22c7a56a31933e68396f58fac556bd | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xde78a44554df56e3a4087272486fc7e0d55f4f9ea1ff969d3e64b54bd9bfa6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-ast-bre-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choic... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 8? | 68,845,336 | 68,845,336 |
d180f302096bd1486979543d675f3dca6d032221 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x30b7d3fca40bd1514590dde435eba9f9365079cab34a93f5747551e18bfe7819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Cho... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10? | 68,894,926 | 68,894,926 |
1f209b011b739779a6b1a9738b6d02849b2fbcca | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xd067ec7e605f025414c75decb5a484575bd9d22005944a7ca7c9440c35dd696a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | Event: factch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10? | 68,894,926 | 68,894,926 |
b71c1ac5fc5c4e3b78261c8b14702773c5a1c032 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x312df0c5b650ec9a0d9fc3a69dabbfcae1b93c7a2451e6163ff7157ab3c02b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | Event: factcheck-brian-thompson-perp-motivated-by-denied-claims | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.705375840904393e-05
3. Question... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 10? | 68,908,365 | 68,908,365 |
df31e53e037ef615e4d4c4e8a452accb9882e107 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf92e5b0510bb8f55f0832d220b47baa03fdf0f1e629a74242ce15cd93ec45205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | Event: factcheck-brian-thompson-perp-motivated-by-denied-claims | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.705375840904393e-05
2. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | 68,908,365 | 68,908,365 |
7c6d2c7bba6c3af3c269002f82429fe5e6c742f1 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xfbc2283e8cc758c5d28c921385b26fe2b0021f2ec45afdb9282a00428a1c889e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 10? | 68,908,365 | 68,908,365 |
4e8770c012094874eb24b219a1c87e7f2e7ec508 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x6d506bd3fc332d1f5e79acd46e380c9a50667e97e35cbd927afd6c4563cd3083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? | 68,929,537 | 68,929,537 |
d756354c8f8db981ed76873c2ff388162a807d06 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x9c6ef81284dc0581c0d8b228af1d4457690bf39f9d97e255981ff3420169050e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of t... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on March 11? | 68,949,042 | 68,949,042 |
6bb7eb5aac5a77933b425f4b7db58bbd800db00a | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xc4492c59487c4d70257737aad206c174fe0635e1431e0182d89f3f19378c77b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | 68,949,042 | 68,949,042 |
b49624d52415bdfa5d4a75988f67d95060f18cef | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x4439724e64b1a185a5894e3d0194b76a57b570bd8208f091f7f3692dc17d4120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Penguins vs. Senators | Event:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 11? | 68,953,850 | 68,953,850 |
97786975d8b54d33b17fcfa606576a58364d3f93 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x9c59258a4657995df63a84d6a4baefd867b8b63fcf4f55c6d313df3134133391 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Penguins vs. Senators | Event: nhl-pit-ott-2024-12-14 | Choice: penguins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-bri-cry-2024-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11? | 68,953,850 | 68,953,850 |
adba25c5d3bab53decf629a14d47533f10c3d6e8 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xfa690b232157c1356f0b201ad71d973bb7863a80366fc71760a7c5547ecb384f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Penguins vs. Senators | Event: nhl-pit-ott-2024-12-14 | Choice: penguins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-bri-cry-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 |... | yes | 0.355686 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 12? | 68,957,785 | 68,989,676 |
54e838a6ba29a62b473c6018959d66afef3bfc6d | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x2e95c8296d3626317655520b39ce84dd5c1bbf97e4ec5ca6243943b4c7dd1ab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-bri-cry-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | Event: will-bitcoin-h... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | 68,963,986 | 68,963,986 |
50b766b050a816652c852fca9b77a1be005ce833 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x9f11ec72e7b55d357869f19836802952e896052c7d6e1408e994b5cfd0a53468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-again-in-2024-dec-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the en... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February? | 68,963,986 | 68,963,986 |
886f94dc619aecf6b824adafb20c8981b54e5574 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xead6f5408bde9f184be018773c131a3d39c091be029b122b98c4c485d3ac01be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-100k-again-in-2024-dec-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gold clo... | yes | 1 | february-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February? | 68,963,986 | 68,963,986 |
16786a50b849de830e723104e8a6fa6f9a4f871f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x173ad2d82e937e1e9acb4cf270218848b681ec2144c8ca409421ec9076e654e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 12? | 68,989,676 | 68,989,676 |
241f0701c48fa18ce7de0c48b849a1eca810a25f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x0e01028e5fe1923d90c69340cfb6763e94cebf33a9c1018f8fd679d72a2c513f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-12 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 12? | 68,994,909 | 68,994,909 |
43d00d62bf891c410650cf479fa0780a3bf2017e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x932ffec657638867dcc1bc5cbb980c4d26118eb3a3ba1d6f827e8c5624856073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $430B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7681889046474081
3. ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on March 13? | 69,002,896 | 69,002,896 |
20b772f80227a281fe79d79bdc5e5e627c8be6ae | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x1b5e18269c551eee6cb65755db1e120a5c9a3d7b81b9f96c2cd0b175725d3b62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $430B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7681889046474081
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 13? | 69,005,271 | 69,005,271 |
27c14ccf85f8fd1004a356b9a5116b6f46fdd1ff | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa52ed4967375858c591aba2c2c42b3ec365b28bf5ca6c602b23d481412b68707 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440B and $445B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 0.000211 | will-egg-prices-drop-this-week | Will egg prices drop this week? | 69,171,132 | 69,172,546 |
8a95ede22db6d868e17f482107fd33c3cfb61d9f | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x2e0c18d774492d647cd576979b4560827b4737c4e710093b2d48e511b06205aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440B and $445B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435B and $440B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | march-unemployment-rate | Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between ≥4.3%? | 69,898,098 | 69,898,098 |
e29f120bdaeb5a99dd6182130e7b62f0e9496cd8 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xd1ff7656d6cc0e5d071758f0012a75e5c27bedba8af19f7a2e92ba66f290affc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435B and $440B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be $450B or more on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 0.178847 | another-india-military-strike-on-pakistan-by-friday-475 | Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? | 71,235,812 | 71,235,812 |
310dd53b2fbbbdbf731462f91385bae988b2b9b9 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be $450B or more on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $445B and $450B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,296,350 | 71,296,350 |
b6fac47828c17d2046331259d51647a17739d36d | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x9f65517eb17b4fa4a7c35fbb8b010b86438b5f91dacd92332d782f5240ee9fb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $445B and $450B on January 31? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | Event: us-10y-treasury-yield-above-5-by-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07712814756650668... | no | 0 | will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-june | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | 71,313,101 | 71,313,101 |
b23f6d7c2f04733ffdba4e12e693ac4f37449e15 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xa757b564604c0abb02fcaf167d93130fe635c223021bfe9d6b95433ab8347d55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | Event: us-10y-treasury-yield-above-5-by-june-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07712814756650668
2. Question: New Pope in 2025? | Event: new-pope-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.0620139951669355e-06
3. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be le... | yes | 0.000002 | us-china-trade-deal-before-june | US-China trade deal before June? | 71,353,596 | 71,353,596 |
55f7654e840d0384482515097e4aebb38a51ce67 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x3126cccd9042f185cf2bc8621521c5b32b299ba3f41a10b8300ae5a1ee84d21a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New Pope in 2025? | Event: new-pope-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.0620139951669355e-06
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid... | no | 0 | how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-2025 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025? | 71,513,573 | 71,513,573 |
028f25ad62a07e1df7045cf2c18d6812746df82b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xd50ca459d0c5da2c1026260c1b627b9aea997f589046e719c6c7294fc17ecaa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday? | Event: will-trump-administration-announces-end-of-ukraine-aid-by-next-friday | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.000048 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-next-friday-may-23 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday? | 71,710,326 | 71,710,326 |
4e177b3664ceb65d9777d868a7afc7919dec78b8 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x0aec6042d8a414340c27906eea326875ffa3de81851cca89da35c674b2d92245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday? | Event: will-trump-administration-announces-end-of-ukraine-aid-by-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | C... | yes | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 6 inmates be captured by Friday? | 71,903,252 | 71,903,252 |
9354c49e69dbdc04a9f04821352d377b2a69efa6 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x06f1d27b38f762cf3c9f44f498506b261069bdc19ae1581d2f7899cd9ece3df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | 50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-june-1 | 50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1? | 71,947,299 | 71,947,299 |
cc38d4f3e4bb91eb083569b2d1902c973335ca08 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x266a50d61199f8c5b9f76056fe12ce053375484f96ee8062bb35c7635c8aa400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | 72,031,826 | 72,031,826 |
5df711998f9bc37467b4f9da7addf753bfc7f4f3 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x18671351eee7d9434183f432e165b1d00ec418e504bb6530f86dd93b5f895e09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 0 | will-trump-spend-7-days-golfing-in-may | Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May? | 72,048,787 | 72,352,166 |
18f064e7b6d357ae9cbe9eb8b9aba75d532d2a86 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xc6f1f3b8806c21c4c005c7dc12b87b0afcb0bdc153629458b2ccb9f2675c04cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | another-earthquake-7pt0-or-above-in-may | Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May? | 72,242,012 | 72,242,012 |
dd9fb04763da4d8f1d5d7dc1f6b20f2f65bd0108 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x4770749e98a9fe48fc3a2c8a4b197e0a29e91c66c2533a642032408249cafe9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | may-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May? | 72,645,646 | 72,645,646 |
b7694efaa3b8a76db08630101e1d319428019b34 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xc7b4b14b0fcf33fa84d562370d0259435319f3c25f54d8e87c1b2841fcf1d4e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Ch... | yes | 0.00793 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-july-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31? | 73,733,568 | 74,876,904 |
298c6bfa69fcadd55aae6782f044fa126184a0c9 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x9b4646a4eb0bb6c2348fae40bb38286b1ea6a6f5a1315438374e590acdfa61d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Ch... | no | 0 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-516 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | 74,508,872 | 74,508,914 |
b634367312e019294ff7cfd3dcefa63fb96bb933 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x95dcfb601bb993a9176ff99bca24add5a773667be33ab1a6758b496478a2317f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-july-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31? | 74,666,436 | 74,666,436 |
d113bbd76cb898406a53c743ee2599011d22075e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xf26a069108339c939b206b55fbaa235b3951d8f24e09d2c47235067086c85d6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: ... | no | 0 | will-doug-polks-every-starting-hand-challenge-end-in-profit | Will Doug Polk’s win his “Every Starting Hand” Challenge? | 74,877,174 | 74,877,174 |
c83355c61c12ac12ca79fc4ed5d97cd5a28d089b | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x742a4343d891c74d092bcf7c5cd51aac2e7149045d0ea5edc84e52d49a135218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Ch... | yes | 0.500047 | 50-india-tariff-in-effect-by-august-27 | 50% India tariff in effect by August 27? | 74,877,354 | 74,877,354 |
2112db3d0715027bf3ed6a86139320c316d7103e | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x92f5d3c973225f097d4ed6a3416fb4dd6e6b28f2a0eeef29971d37996ca14a5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: y... | no | 0.001385 | trump-imposes-tariff-on-pharmaceuticals-by-august-31 | Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31? | 74,878,027 | 74,878,027 |
c3f7f0b2f76075f18a17e5358de5ea5afe407ea2 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x32513a8bab0959f7755c2f372632c4a07f092f4c1f090f7f0b0d59191a0a31e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 0.000135 | will-trump-impose-more-sanctions-on-russia-by-august-31 | Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31? | 74,881,295 | 74,881,295 |
784615a81e23edb03deeb27a1b08416a64fadaf9 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xec05c24e569aca2bdd5d6e948f7810e1b4449cb98433c0e34bc8c4baa1df3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-12 | Choice: ... | no | 0.000006 | will-trump-deploy-national-guard-in-dc-by-monday | Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? | 75,076,727 | 75,077,174 |
51f4b41d3bb84af3078bb27c0ce543b74f8252e8 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0xea50ad381226afed4f2ab3647a26530d69494966b09c3314c7ef1e5d8f1b7ac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.35568617565058613
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 0.24303 | will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-in-2025 | Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? | 75,234,046 | 75,234,046 |
455f1962927de57c6be7667a01e980240c7de834 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x70d73fc4ae20cd0513ea18710000f702771df79f562961132e0a9e83f2edbf35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will monthly inflatio... | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday-715 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | 75,842,916 | 75,842,916 |
30f47eb91750a539d970a792b754ccd840190053 | 0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919 | 0x46dc560a09f07d8b6989bec851262e4df92ea0dd909631cf987afc88c8b8d729 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February? | Event: february-inflation-annual | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February? | Event: february-inflation-monthly | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest te... | no | 0.000018 | will-mrbeast-raise-40m-for-clean-water-by-august-31 | Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | 75,887,559 | 75,887,559 |
7fcc6f5e18784b546358f09bc18a38d43e9b837f | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x21c9384cdf620feb2a9e2e3e0860b11fb1e2f20b39d084ce4b991b3a32e6c54d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08?
Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | 78,769,919 | 78,769,919 |
7ea75c7f0fd8b556677b11072a3bce60dbb6b0a0 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x938e1394347bce94687cf8cc9022a456bc7c8bb3e90e9e0b2c6a83489505a5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09?
Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., ... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | 78,810,840 | 78,810,840 |
ead9a75cf36aa6facc73fee44bf80fe4b95273fe | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09?
Event: lal-cel-bar-2... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,829,478 | 78,829,478 |
18fea87a7b98068fab21b691406c70b0a853724e | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x43f5741147c0d4d806b9fa65b99bcbbc47ea71bfc31ef82cbdf3c42f18d81b24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17? | 79,180,146 | 79,180,146 |
9dea806bde52b4255fc798020d6ed8b530e2e369 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x4627b7b2de8227944a034f33f13355c599b8aa49e6a465c39c31abba8a0a42e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,180,146 | 79,180,146 |
3d96f1dc2eea36ab46d73839cddf830ac0ffeeb9 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x8380b2ff77e225b1f0f0d257584af6ededddf005a69075cab10d0b8ef829d811 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-17? | 79,180,146 | 79,180,146 |
88aacaddce848a8439ee4b21fdab753b482da97c | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,180,146 | 79,180,146 |
942c44b5883ea2f558cd667df2820a0765ee82a5 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x64102a53b0cf5afebe6d560b687fd29ae580e5939467ec863bb63a9c8090e792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | uef-aut-bih-2025-11-18 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-11-18? | 79,218,729 | 79,218,729 |
39765f2b7d60d7b25892e453944c5161a9feede4 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x594354095c2d479f27f16b961838db309ab16fb3140a79d498be5d6b202581cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | bra-csc-int-2025-11-20 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,301,092 | 79,301,092 |
99a5d3f2cbb9b28bb4c2d846c97a0fd42d36921a | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0xed8da673df65db4f370568f91e9c74642d87ae1d53123396a02111b9b0648ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2025-11-22 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? | 79,373,806 | 79,373,806 |
d5a8c786f0bb18df237e2b3dd05972bed972ef31 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x2b675c44bc590c80d65b1b87eb201ad053e01a1ebe7bbb014f39bfb51ddc6e7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? | 79,565,422 | 79,565,422 |
5f803338f757815ee7501533fb5ba5922ffe0ac4 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0xb2e199347669c2892bd8f01fe7330a04073878261dd949e7b5fb3d56f00d0030 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | elc-mil-swe-2025-11-26 | Will Millwall FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,565,422 | 79,565,422 |
2251fe7d0c056e74955b15edb89b94503361b517 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0xbb76a4c39c97922f92266fc0d050f3237184a55aa0c38efc2d98c30d6a060b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | uel-rom1-mid1-2025-11-27 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? | 79,589,508 | 79,589,508 |
a5f6a8bf33bb745c63c22dff68c8bcc47752f946 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x9d8fa70f1042d2324ef698f7f8e5bf408d478ff90ebdf02ab7b83a657c4cc364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | yes | 1 | uel-bol1-rbs1-2025-11-27 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? | 79,593,616 | 79,593,616 |
4200df286a5e7fe32a9c6b061902be9385d8ebf2 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x2832b058262be53e280430f474efff7772206e81966ede5d1ecf3d020c8ec918 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-tou-2025-11-29 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-29? | 79,680,683 | 79,680,683 |
85ac09ec6535a1196fea495c006f03d6e565bd46 | 0x255fa863003bc87ce1d1f30e28e2f248897edad2 | 0x44c77a2da2fdff454ba87fa5093704638feed984a0cec0f0b63edd3111691fcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? | Event: lal-mad-lev-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | Event: sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | Event: lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 |... | no | 1 | lal-rso-vil-2025-11-30 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-30? | 79,711,983 | 79,711,983 |
74c32e5f932460d9a2318ddbbff459f502de641d | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xc79ce2d9008231509b45760b8b64248aaa74f41eae8ee1b3c829a1d75d77056b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31?
Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | 75,894,656 | 75,894,656 |
c331987dc8cadd1f8488ff9b0d27b2a81934f3cc | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xbdf914f129dcca527c3c255260374280508a0a58184563c8d504d25818aff245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22?
Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22
Predict the user's choice and confide... | yes | 1 | will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | 75,894,807 | 75,894,807 |
8ff64fb0827ee0ba33a021a30f6ef7e0a6fa39a8 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xd71fce329f64484e324c08cc0655725ce8f4c9051dcceacb170933ed491da271 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Q... | yes | 1 | will-microstrategy-hold-630k-btc-by-august-31 | Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? | 75,894,839 | 75,894,839 |
5823c32e97d0e7d15cc66e4d52c97599da458f80 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x031237333b2ddc9c7a933f2c65c9b56655350dd8f311dbc590af902d8b1831dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-the-2025-taiwanese-referendum-pass | Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | 75,894,864 | 75,894,864 |
6d4edc034295a066e76f5614815dbdcb89205ecf | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x81bb93bd9d3380269da1e9e25498ed9c939b5ad34316cdf232ec3624eaa6c77b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-august | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | 75,894,914 | 75,894,914 |
8af63ff9480c5dd432c3c0cd654bd0aab596661c | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xe9c4bd705d3726ea3fb0846a1d23cec2a1d626c9369b5ac4a2a3c5ed1b021d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-putin-meet-with-trump-before-october | Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30? | 75,894,923 | 75,894,923 |
be46fdaf3244ebbb26a24e2529f51ee6ff1aea29 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x68c4b0a0dc383ca93e427aae64eaf3722b14984315736222a8225855b693a1b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-gamestop-buy-more-bitcoin-before-august | Will GameStop buy more Bitcoin before August? | 75,894,944 | 75,894,944 |
15c18695fe14c3001adf3c586bdf60d20938f66c | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x31cb88bbf97dfca26ecfd358f64e4d4da9ab7001fffc511d8cf4c28abf638e19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | dogecoin-above-0pt20-on-july-18 | Dogecoin above $0.20 on July 18? | 75,895,016 | 75,895,016 |
869caf1ea225e7274580a05787d6fb175b024df6 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x9c26bb8505b6c5ef6b5f5f2f8382d59f4867ad5d0d969cb128e66601b02fc407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-pumpfun-launch-a-token-by | Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? | 75,895,072 | 75,895,072 |
47a537bbeeb096795170da9bad620b7f9fcd2c41 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x9b9df17e69afbb21c2d10859e7225c69f36d023edcb55a6b2cb8e327324051cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-all-time-high-by-july-11 | Bitcoin all time high by July 11? | 75,895,074 | 75,895,074 |
578b3f1f469c989ff456ca3f8e0294e193c34b94 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xdabdef6c1388d4ea2475bc34a744088de98707f350f1daf2d8a99e2918a5d81f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-198 | Will Trump say "Communist" this week? | 75,895,086 | 75,895,086 |
83ad05984d1939dac8d09e89ff2c349c89765c7d | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xdae8eb120cc18c5f8fe9fc1863df68d0f589c9db0408d9d248b934e57f7e1b81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | what-will-be-in-the-next-reconciliation-bill | Will next reconciliation bill end electric vehicle tax credits in 2025? | 75,895,096 | 75,895,096 |
5f69a53f8cfe3ed7e36eed8b6428747b40dca93a | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x2d12d5b256d30d801dc00042ee56ce3dd17e63c37a98ec68066bd683cd7bfbc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | reconciliation-bill-passed-by | Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? | 75,895,166 | 75,895,166 |
d99507c43b6a44501958b8fdb058b2f7009032c1 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | doge-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Doge ETF approved by July 31? | 75,895,178 | 75,895,178 |
4b0ee1fdd948cccd14f736525aea7d8a9b7e434c | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x4f6d8832d32181a0efdf34349d7eb340b2064345f58a9659ae6d4a177f2f63eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | solana-etf-approved-by-july-31-2025 | Solana ETF approved by July 31? | 75,895,182 | 75,895,182 |
cbaa8f8da3f8a3833693ce9641224c5e3ff59e31 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x49d8f6a49da96276f1b961152dba6b4d7567c9b47bc48d8a7aef778232dbdeef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | trumps-birthright-citizenship-ban-unblocked-before-july | Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July? | 75,895,208 | 75,895,208 |
1803eb5115324fcf8ab07c2e3b62c98eda546619 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x1df3c1bd9bc3737373b46bd8df24e1a2b4307cc19e586f4f1f20559a0f8a4f30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-fartcoin-hit-before-june-932 | Will Fartcoin reach $1.80 before June? | 75,895,312 | 75,895,312 |
ff6b0ab612e69afa275d97c5496ef381a5ba6a44 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x2fa8f18b40269c9c9a0c313f8bdb64fa5ace55f12425a16af3b6bd16ae626899 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july | Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July? | 75,895,405 | 75,895,405 |
87098345d74a7e94213e9ed7f99dc18119730a33 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xc7a571b438d14b6fb34afad62ae1bd99d6cc9ea390b2adb6b868ad3b0b624aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-tesla-name-a-new-ceo-before-july | Will Tesla name a new CEO before July? | 75,895,432 | 75,895,432 |
8588e271bb4074993645f838845e472238bf97c8 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xff95dc889ea3abb0db1ca4b20c351cedafc451286b3d1836310b9ffc524966cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on-april-19-25 | Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 24? | 75,895,490 | 75,895,490 |
1235bd34c3c7cc82d44bf9b9a33c437720851e37 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x4b6a8fd9f75f28658a998a4464ed20f86776ab6e72d4cdb10fcb5fe5c824e64b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-polish-president-on-september-3 | Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during events with Polish president on September 3? | 76,030,188 | 76,030,188 |
10598211e162b593b8b882b30925f02745cdda9b | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0xae51b8e1f2792afbb249cefc75eb60a986cebca6118bf1b61a9799a8a8cec5fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | which-soccer-players-will-sign-with-new-clubs | Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window? | 76,030,224 | 76,030,224 |
3ca6f6038d5e4eb146181b7f79b6ea9c31a1e2a8 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x9e4ef7b4bd20e006516589cdad9778c314dfe6999e6e7b0dc285350dbc32e2a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | another-houthi-strike-on-israel-by-august-31 | Another Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? | 76,030,312 | 76,030,312 |
7f3187ed77fa086096117d5b4602811f9f342247 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x5a348e5d07ae3601a84ff33acd8e90b7c3e368c22736fac1430641c88c488f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-in-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August? | 76,030,359 | 76,030,359 |
48e2c17a2862e30d132b84f6018ba8440fedbc6e | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x6ce1ea150658f18f9abedea2d81ae98412ab9632166154608a1dedc5370ecb95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-a-hurricane-form-by-august-31 | Will a hurricane form by August 31? | 76,030,374 | 76,030,374 |
f947ded08d15db6659c88a65f34acddcc55d8f56 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x181a3f3752b197d7e99a22b83b57d8d0f6fe4fa8796cfee6eda5866d15cc69ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-metaplanet-hold-20k-btc-by-august-31 | Will Metaplanet hold 20k+ BTC by August 31? | 76,030,406 | 76,030,406 |
3c727000109817f18169c3f2d48b159103e7b7bd | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x6c064cca193052c93b50e9a1ef319838cf04a2d48ad9073444be273af43a46be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | will-russia-capture-siversk-before-september | Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31? | 76,030,624 | 76,030,624 |
5c153f30469959bfdb540a8d42790e4a3a563cfc | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x082edd709794ccaa935ec4480d0e584d6194e3642d70d2d4f1c56b6963f1e5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-in-september | Will Trump say "Bin Laden" during September? | 76,328,136 | 76,328,136 |
8dfdce01d9579be8c48b886e4f2084e5621d2c36 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x3c56b8d7b69bee2c0d9ec5d8a93f632a6f27d147844c8dfa726704e1fbd08d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-opec-hike-production-by-next-meeting | Will OPEC hike production by next meeting? | 76,328,226 | 76,328,226 |
a556af4d438c9eb7cb695d611a8eb52a409dd925 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x54fb76fabfeddbac408cf0a1b25d9288466554c9ea6da3813f11f32657d4c56a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-talk-to-in-september | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in September? | 76,328,238 | 76,328,238 |
e45ea9fc921b376b2ea10b6f34f12a9eb890dd47 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x7cd79521e16e9f6f1e82311edb96e0a2f4b2dbc92fd7264a7add59f54b054109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31? | Event: israel-strikes-yemen-again-by-august-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robtotaxi-service-in-2025 | Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | 76,328,242 | 76,328,242 |
d67dadb8dda780ba7b70b7b30ea9173f014f6dca | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x9a68a7a12600327a3c388d7ad4d9a0bfcdf60870811427fcc01fab0c4410824c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Event: will-texas-enact-a-redistricting-law-by-august-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-630k-btc-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | airdrops-in-q3-2025 | Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? | 76,328,410 | 76,328,410 |
556943f66f63baccd02ae7524354b3ece90b86a5 | 0x2586d0d364616b4a247a10afe7f2b64a5f59f4b1 | 0x5ebb35d712646bbdf2aa8d6d244927bb225a282416e39fabeb3dd1b65074ee19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-630k-btc-by-august-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | Event: will-the-2025-taiwanese-referendum-pass | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-talk-to-in-september | Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September? | 76,840,639 | 76,840,639 |
2bd1a72d3582545daa0f41052bb31ab94e956a7a | 0x2592465211997583a47ab31277e8172c06d8bc6e | 0xb7f1877ac9a50bd8f09cdec0f8a619e745c5369abbe5c086d437b58123dec30a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Solana Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET
Event: solana-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.617601 | solana-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | 74,120,767 | 74,120,767 |
b29bb739d4adf8f1c548ca81b39aa31ea4726df7 | 0x2592465211997583a47ab31277e8172c06d8bc6e | 0xd5a8f4c8ccf4c9c4e2d5101f77aa35d771783c6680d4a0fc82264ec649f00a6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6176005064893954
Target market:
Question: XRP Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET
Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | up | 0.608218 | xrp-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | 74,120,768 | 74,120,768 |
76fd910731de080677adb18e4e2682dc8ea182bb | 0x2592465211997583a47ab31277e8172c06d8bc6e | 0xa478ca82d450443734047110abc99bf8ac58b6b20f3d1f57b5f0012d1db0e3c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6176005064893954
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6082182059941966
Target market:
Question: Ethereum Up ... | up | 0.670072 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | 74,121,392 | 74,121,392 |
4b75d8e7fe3707485d2b9656a7b69c50599a2936 | 0x2592465211997583a47ab31277e8172c06d8bc6e | 0x2a038e0766c16cae21157f0798caee828db7682697598076eb719556327fd593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6176005064893954
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 18, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-july-18-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.6082182059941966
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Jul... | up | 0.638212 | solana-up-or-down-july-18-6pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 18, 6PM ET | 74,126,064 | 74,126,064 |
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