sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6eae51e429fe56ee774f5d0a11d118cefd8c7306 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x0d644bfeedc722b45d7a7c785d8efc0d9a75e8bba85dd689755131eaafab3888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Aster all time high by December 31? | Event: aster-all-time-high-by-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.578959463275741e-05
2. Question: Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Event: meteora-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2537593001832466
3. Question:... | yes | 0.000352 | will-phantom-daily-builder-revenue-hit-300k-in-2025 | Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
5ae28394429687d911071c076c0c21a05dc88f90 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x1d9d1019dc213e5e76eaa87743b7ac2449a2121aabf446603b8d7cba6b05e8c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Event: meteora-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2537593001832466
2. Question: Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? | Event: will-curtis-sliwa-drop-out-458 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.1111203297337934e-05
3. Question: Will Russi... | no | 0.000522 | us-china-tariff-agreement-before-90-day-deadline-518 | US x China tariff agreement by November 10? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
e1a7d3cb3e8540d96629a286b548c5fb983deeb8 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x1fbeca90a39253081b032a9990da1cb5b25573d4e213327b5b0f0c222b05be6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? | Event: will-curtis-sliwa-drop-out-458 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.1111203297337934e-05
2. Question: Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31? | Event: will-russia-capture-yampil-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33333923110906655
3. Question: Opensea ... | eth | 0.000365 | first-to-5k-gold-or-eth | First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
a86ed0ef15768ffd4d56d49a3d7b2b1df3bb5891 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x377e97f2e52fffc385d9563299a3d4f40ad4019d20750dc14e21243f025ac490 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31? | Event: will-russia-capture-yampil-by-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.33333923110906655
2. Question: Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Event: opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00870828707848946
... | no | 0.002242 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
5f00b479fe89c97974bd36336605fa8e3dae95de | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x3c4b545b189b25c868f50f36c9efc21c0ca5eabcf6c733058dac137f3509f6c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Event: opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00870828707848946
2. Question: Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | Event: hyperliquid-all-time-high-by-december-31-637 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.49319354835066... | no | 1 | will-opensea-launch-a-token-by | Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
78e6bf6ddbbcefe2acf4dd3136d2871563fca827 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x7c9de7c10f6c844116abe7b47bd7c5dc4ca1c3da710813c02d3d388bc227f964 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | Event: hyperliquid-all-time-high-by-december-31-637 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.493193548350669e-05
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1780175... | yes | 1 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-new-trade-deals-with-in-2025 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
b2c9143f156bd43bdfa20e16869d9b3943f0421a | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x962c76d11abf9d8ef448281d25f3b8678d54866234a960f0f6e8879c7ae12f2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.17801756095177101
2. Question: Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.0... | yes | 0.000882 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
9e96807d17164833f238ff820ef46f36481d27be | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xbca45186bc1f8ad2912f79f22c6e37c0946f6619bbfbd0f97ad93d9b525a6293 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October? | Event: who-will-trump-meet-with-in-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.003459122921337e-05
2. Question: Another France debt downgrade by December 31? | Event: another-france-debt-downgrade-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0.055005 | ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
5824db63f13db4d7556ec3c860b4c0989ba9161e | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xfe1169bc73a4d54074e6856e7c4f56d49403940bc03ea31a46b404a2fa58aa31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another France debt downgrade by December 31? | Event: another-france-debt-downgrade-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.695615794493464e-05
2. Question: Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31? | Event: trump-invokes-the-insurrection-act-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0.00029 | axp-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-17-2025-4 | Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,409 |
73769020b9cc79bf2c27eeadf05296d506698423 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0xfd1aad741a2fe1c59f3e56161ba736e557d0c9cecb7dc1726163cf539cde5934 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31? | Event: trump-invokes-the-insurrection-act-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5328214660627276
2. Question: Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Event: will-trump-visit-china-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3582148106837386
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0 | spacex-starship-flight-test-11 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15? | 77,776,409 | 77,776,647 |
e42e14e785130cb25950168b4e4176a7f28a0a47 | 0x245c0d55014784c4263e465461951c6a2d2d2486 | 0x1d039941b393f61a08567d37ef2e45bc3e7b19984d186c5e7ab4e06243c3ad9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Event: will-trump-visit-china-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3582148106837386
2. Question: Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? | Event: will-zcash-flip-monero-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5159869225182554
3. Question: Will Sora be the #... | yes | 0.002559 | will-trump-establish-a-gaza-board-of-peace-in-2025 | Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? | 77,776,410 | 77,776,410 |
fb8367417957c6bab8dfd88cca739bcdffd7c525 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x6777fda4a73b1a84208ee8d47dfc152e596db266e03a430f3bbc6243e1e2bda9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | 77,608,961 | 77,608,961 |
69db85718157295d03c94c7bd2c40beb179d366f | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x054511942600401cb453280dec217fefe4167c37e54a69c2b10f1e41d8373951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11?
Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t... | yes | 1 | arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | 77,608,963 | 77,608,963 |
12001d6f766dee4866664fe238fa0d0cba776ee1 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x1844d73752f11e8fffce40205a8d6dcbaaa3f62c7499ef156550f965454e62a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will... | yes | 1 | arg-ind-lan-2025-10-12 | Will CA Lanús win on 2025-10-12? | 77,615,171 | 77,615,171 |
50e43ef33ef345863fa0d6a94d59518637d32238 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x1438f4c37cace8f8950325a1645ce70e7386ee85b3e548a785400187437d1ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 12? | 77,633,984 | 77,633,984 |
78cf525e982d3f1965ccc28d4908370b2289db07 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x55a689d00cf24517eb7a71ced151f99774abda8c35185458f5cfaf27f1355f17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-7-october-14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | 77,633,984 | 77,633,984 |
9b2d62e34aa41dfa509441124b92d27c2055a0aa | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xc432af9280482e26f71cb60e0f6f73b302cecb95371e1b076b99da1daa240211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | no | 1 | when-will-israel-announce-ceasefire | Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? | 77,633,984 | 77,633,984 |
2c42403ef818bc0d1edeee9413b307c79c73dd20 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x0307106f98a2c6fe792df476d4c3be85779ec52c8e4ed21d68677c44448228ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-isl-fra-2025-10-13 | Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
1d3a85ca5763bec790d3abddc9cf39768d39502b | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x10782e00b6398e19d20a83f3b23b1b2f3c41728b106c2874b75f339226a870ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-mac-kaz-2025-10-13 | Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
9f2d423c97aaf930c664ff62384c11fdf4a485a4 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x28f7d60ec393a41e36519e17ad542c60e0312f7acff711b0df6b609b5112905c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
59a1c2daa1332faa4e45bc001076bbe80ffea985 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x37f2359162db57e6970a27d31261f36e4437b84e69f0724fdc05e45f06028dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Will Luxembourg win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
7a6e64ca0267f28ade755b24b4f09e5713631904 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x4356837cec1e18e58e6bd079f64a055b0aad71a854035209ef1a0b2a3e8c8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-slv-che-2025-10-13 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
10ec44ec2f408b989d808319474533690f385c83 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xa3461d7d52f0c098283642affde8233f6fbaa0b3259fc410fb64201333e69e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
66bf1e0fdef18d1aa579f285118b352da003a95b | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xe4f64043b6d86c1f9c2a8f8a2c0e8a2273f07a47a8b130c6ae3330fc352b7721 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? | 77,650,342 | 77,650,342 |
57f96ebb4b3a2aae94013f7676513d800769995e | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x3c14980495b09987db0d1b241f47c8f791b6591340f94fea066beeef139ec352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | 77,839,185 | 77,839,185 |
280d6449502036204105cc2f0b5c72eee977a375 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | 77,839,185 | 77,839,185 |
fd8dfd3f970ffd9e5e8140263946e9d9b3e73000 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xf40e6609e2248e3c86df5d9a1618427700ecf23a91c95c81ccafa7c5193e8d74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-18? | 77,855,649 | 77,855,649 |
85d2b38d49e674bb478315674d50a2cc1ffc25b2 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xec52ae1013b79055079e25cdc101289788ef4cfd377a417b954ba972b4c33f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | mex-mon1-pum-2025-10-18 | Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-18? | 77,875,533 | 77,875,533 |
922927844cfb9057e374e567e50273848b121ad7 | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0x35a1840578c6eedad3c7f74eeb1ebfb9e6d0601d60d964b14389e631bd9af6d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | mls-skc-hou-2025-10-18 | Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2025-10-18? | 77,875,535 | 77,875,535 |
d835dcbf57b7fe73fadeb8cfa24124d3ee4ffaff | 0x245f2dab71364ffd3fec67b3383e77e486fe4ffe | 0xe22a6e8841943000c124416287e9556daeae263cdb3e92d3ee1b3a5a549a2673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-vel-ros-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win... | yes | 1 | mls-skc-hou-2025-10-18 | Will Houston Dynamo win on 2025-10-18? | 77,875,535 | 77,875,535 |
d8d7c68052e3baf2875d6405de19fea5569022a4 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x0e8fc620e52455faed4c33d14f6a8f8d69788362f4480d779115630ddf9f000b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C?
Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
4a0498048a6add9cf186d6893f6ca5cf87c2a0c8 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x142942528bc24bc82165d4b4929e7628400199925ffbcaace270dedb35fb665f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday?
Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
f8db7e918a6b716909f28910d1f0314ca89a3cde | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x3c0d3b759bee203b521c9c2e2c26cd4afb608d988a3cc585101edbf69c30b9a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-20-27 | Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
f007f2c629f77ca7bba6bc271b8220dd94d4f51f | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x5f087af302eed2c64b8a934a4cace46301f770737886c998821a3f46de3d6be3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-20-27 | Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
84701b1500ea52e41ea543a8bf32f37f98e2579f | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x7fffc9f1138a3a685eb75643b6738a5da3c069b3f781527f42090b79697fd5a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-20-27 | Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
22204f2215cc1bc3d2989360d5c931bbaa1a929e | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xa94961fc62766ef354fabf86cf359848a1f5fb8080d724d2635e13b38d56eb31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by between 1.29-1.34°C? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
cb757b95e31592956451e398df40797c7b9f2b72 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xb93227059d9761432e078c03a9bea601f4312abf2bfc3b44b5b2f2f581632ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-20-27 | Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
2abefd7c248ed8bd96e9e2f13672aafa37aa2def | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xbccfec0cffc8d5a54802502b569ff59ab36300fc373670ea2954775c11712c27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by between 1.35-1.40°C? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
a5d05f9dca188d02d8482cd38b690ecf77aa450c | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xcab1c6be218de6d0baac5ff5490ee98d8e50167d3a882094a652e6427ffe8f96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20? | 63,502,126 | 63,502,126 |
41db9c3ee391acdf0478fd51f845cff365468ce1 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x01876ed8ee02399812dc73f8ee9682dd787eb9a53972b4ebaa6f09ca7eee5045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | 63,541,505 | 63,541,505 |
dcf7f3d98b375969535982f5fa2fbab79ba7e77f | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0x653d79ff8bc6ab093a2c64be3da6d4ed8d2742052d0d6df9c93e78192040232c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ips-2024-10-26 | Will Brentford vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 63,541,505 | 63,541,505 |
3cf4bcbb0c36ddf997165512cb494ec334bf83da | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xc401a90fdfbb0e25b9898ab4bd9b0e4eb3e41c8bc25a9c3d5d8a50b909195361 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2024-10-26 | Will Everton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 63,541,505 | 63,541,505 |
65fd35bb669a04ad74511463db9331c013f361cf | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xd7d1ef22a1362358fe23659611c8b49e74efa4758b81334837e30b36f0b414c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-sou-2024-10-26 | Will Man City vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 63,541,505 | 63,541,505 |
867ba8f795e924df723f60ea78ad6c575c3a03c1 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xf8b9b75bc4c746714fa35e2b91eaa27ec4e45f3969311d04513c939c725a493e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | no | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2024-10-26 | Will Fulham win on 2024-10-26? | 63,541,505 | 63,541,505 |
ff4789eabd9fa7fb711aa660a42e96399f2303f4 | 0x24b0f00bef05e264c8797fc99a4bc4df2de4dd7a | 0xa48b8e7498449769e61c278a9e01d3ff4bf08e401fc10a7dd47b7ffc508359a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | Event: september-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strik... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-wol-2024-10-26 | Will Brighton win on 2024-10-26? | 63,541,509 | 63,541,509 |
f5fe07e697205a410a4cd934dcc1f7f0687dcf6e | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xb69d0d6c319910e057d707f0ae8d5c7a20fb81c0c70e27043c92e3088918ed50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase?
Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | 69,438,735 | 69,438,735 |
56c928eeaa7e69003d59ea3019b3bc25233b81f5 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xce076ecfa8faf25f6a177ce2f051f38d64598fbfc30e37e9ec57df9d15d9214a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?
Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24
Predict the user's choice an... | no | 0 | will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | 69,441,432 | 69,441,432 |
fdb9b4ef4640d08347fcf6a283210b64ac6e4f02 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x0c92f7e9f3873252b6de10d7851c4951161075e985d815688653271e6e916b57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target m... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase-3-25 | Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | 69,722,515 | 69,735,639 |
9288230b96475bc022935215118d7a1b4a315d87 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x04538a278827f68be7cf45fcc1cd9c16b2eb2c3b4aef4fdd64fa765ee52d8316 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Will MrBeast's next video get 40m+ views on day 1? | 70,849,064 | 70,849,064 |
354429ea68c5fac4aedaa9a5fd0513315152e14a | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x3db9baf8b3187e7bb4d3b157a1ec3550d59793d97ce772343661cdb1fe63f0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-pewdiepie-video-on-day-1 | Will PewDiePie's next video get 1m-1.5m views on day 1? | 70,849,064 | 70,849,064 |
fa369e3a1d9cd9c4c3ae70d72c8961b3c262dca2 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xc1ff7c390cbeac4ae4be61b81314be6f09c759f6b923430d6d1964c18e6c565c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-04162025 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 70,849,064 | 70,849,064 |
c34ae9ae04ab9a6491fef857ede37bfbbea4e735 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xf71bdaa16f3b40813773ece82dc234c60c32a2d80901aa514c95925eac859a38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-pewdiepie-video-on-day-1 | Will PewDiePie's next video get >2m views on day 1? | 70,849,064 | 70,849,064 |
24bfd3487f4880b162234efdfe6269922dca7ff0 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x851a33bf764b08534901107d6d53647057bff05e0f8966b3bc2d5503e7edbd04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 0.000529 | will-microstrategy-hold-600k-btc-before-june | Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? | 70,858,511 | 71,707,834 |
66194ab76c86c6dc78cc7721881b287d63b7ca1a | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x5cf25e39e9315e622626c06f137faf84f55770cec4b2deaae28de70a7f6e2323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-dream-video-on-day-1 | Will Dream's next video get 500k-1m views on day 1? | 71,621,186 | 71,621,186 |
17470ed93cb4f13890f30842dd7baf6cd9e129f0 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xe7b58b2dbab8d48d3aba8f3d0e7b255378133ff4e153104fba345ddcfecf63d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-more-than-14000-btc-may-13-19 | MicroStrategy purchases >14000 BTC May 13-19? | 71,707,573 | 71,794,109 |
8dcd582b0b4ee5ae4b546cbce3b74123caafee7d | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xa2a8100778036aa3b7c6966359d440bd392465346e394c15ec7e04979212fce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0.199006 | will-microstrategy-hold-600k-btc-before-july | Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | 72,271,954 | 73,404,504 |
7fa3dc1b2162e161f23cf822b0fbb99c4d24e915 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xd42698db427017859dac7d255c95b4eb98d0f88242797949ef639baa59a5ebac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0.016329 | microstrategy-purchases-10000-btc-june-3-9 | MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? | 72,565,117 | 72,565,117 |
b36b75483a76959593197d679d30745a4fb1c4cb | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x725d583f36b4a12984c4669108f7db6514e75c095ae68fed4b95f8decd41bef4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-8000-btc-june-17-23 | MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 17-23? | 73,120,797 | 73,165,621 |
c43923ed694c204893f6297801c9cdb35c1eacce | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x556e51429d8c79f3b643eb466f1f3fcf73ba92086ec790522b15b7d377d8f61b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET | 73,363,926 | 73,363,926 |
72d054702c325ae11385f7d91390ce98e471b918 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x59b381a2269f90be904e0d8d6d5a46bbf2f9c4abc95eea380e464787fbc08a46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-8000-btc-june-24-30 | MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 24-30? | 73,404,451 | 73,439,671 |
6b99311e195e9989e09fe0e8b1883fb907748ab1 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x3e0bc36a0009ab23bca757eabf17709046146c3cc2110aaf837a5e1993ab26f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-hold-620k-btc-before-august | Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | 73,439,692 | 73,948,691 |
f38cb3d13de70d08b3a176372bab88f06ca94f03 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x45d0417c0c30b04bf24ec10f7e0fe1b1061bd98ba7080f12cd733e63febbfdb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-5000-btc-july-8-14 | MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 8-14? | 73,948,635 | 73,948,635 |
a7b7ab8d4808ad9baf11f3e35e6bfe0cc69f7fd9 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x92c33a0f8fd9554035a00d26594811097c87f4f2f8333719475399a2555eb938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-8-14 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? | 73,949,211 | 73,949,211 |
e405f1b090fb7cc63cb1df824a4d96888c5702ca | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xd765ad755189cf66b4528aea80b80a818a6d3dad1084e48f9736068311f7c020 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-5000-btc-july-22-28 | MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 22-28? | 74,511,674 | 74,511,674 |
ddec1d4553fd6fdcfd1684d95f3e77ff296a516e | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x20756dc8ddded86446b6258f835697940352b330707521d95dadee1eb37bb19c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-22-28 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28? | 74,511,678 | 74,549,753 |
fbe996b27166843bee56c0e8b9b12c80c44ddeff | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xfd3f14a8e1deb916d7bb900bf9112b2af4328b5e8385f8fdbe855526e00f9f70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-5000-btc-august-5-11 | MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 5-11? | 75,071,005 | 75,071,005 |
fb38fd9f61221a7e8888dedee259f10a4adfa8e9 | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0xd71fce329f64484e324c08cc0655725ce8f4c9051dcceacb170933ed491da271 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-hold-630k-btc-by-august-31 | Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? | 75,071,020 | 75,355,281 |
192afd4038ed72255b1916b065e45a9d37ad23bb | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x036e213dbc54013c6af6e9ca2c6432a04220b23d4c676249289c88a6cb7f850d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-5000-btc-august-12-18 | MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 12-18? | 75,355,289 | 75,355,289 |
b5226a3ba0db85dc00346364663ca13514fe170d | 0x24d5f4220db6ff8220a122e25b96e6c72e2bd94f | 0x6bf952c43de37dd90e4a1ed9c34d8714b0f24715a9afb38c4d09f97f00092dbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Event: will-microstrategy-buy-200-bitcoin-in-next-purchase | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Event: will-strategy-purchase-bitcoin-mar-18-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questi... | no | 0 | microstrategy-purchases-4000-btc-september-16-22 | MicroStrategy announces >4000 BTC purchase September 16-22? | 76,761,124 | 76,761,124 |
81bcb3d71d208026205b72b96362ac97ac5a14e6 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,321,812 | 67,321,812 |
8897ef245fcdb670953c89d23d262f5f176325d3 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xc50248c9651c9c832a4d73c024f4a4a48d289b7ec08a80a65ee3b74f90e37fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28
Predict the user's choice and co... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,508,975 | 68,508,975 |
405c972208bc355ddd6f0a830c4a3cfec9f49b98 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x20cc003f4a4e1587148fb9629cda11d0db9a48aed16a3a50f6d024c58c615157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,748,583 | 69,749,352 |
8d3301b58d8b51dd2fa018227cb0cce121bd19e5 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,699,210 | 71,699,210 |
ce1e19ffca06fd0a3855de581f868d84aff7750f | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 71,732,172 | 71,732,172 |
fdcb8b541f573ba38dcb187916952fd02e5dcdaa | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x3aeaddfa5c56f561a169d75df4670345bd9f4547c8ebcae6a32adc95831788e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | 71,776,143 | 71,776,143 |
26756e0a631a04b39a3b8c44a12bca627555c795 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,333,826 | 72,333,826 |
ca0b6b7a642a449b5f55058d1ac123e5ff4feded | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xdffca503462dd7b2dfd683a5ed103f14e9749d9584fbd1a1d507be4c47cc0f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | from-the-world-of-john-wick-ballerina-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m? | 72,575,907 | 72,575,907 |
742d505b6669892a1a9b2d82fc7638db348310a6 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x1eaa7dbf6db63fb0771a93ac95920a0a5facd65734e8a5c269c276d2dc14cbda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,629,650 | 72,629,650 |
42c03752cab5a1fe5a0b56e0abe5de382b445548 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x4b91e8c644da761dfc492c394b66a597deee3d3e16d0d0a40b48f87ea4c71c43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-17-213 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 17? | 72,902,947 | 72,902,947 |
dcccd9eeef4003839a781c14d6e9923d978eac42 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | 72,940,318 | 72,940,443 |
3dadf96345801562290fad8cb6d1765e0a93d8a5 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x15b6923783345ba34b3956d2c12829097c6ceeb3b24cad1e3d27927a28541800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | elio-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m? | 73,042,048 | 73,047,232 |
fcab81f0d03979ef491e7e425ca252e55fb29434 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x4015fbd7d31779f1146e60fac7f6a923b2c2aee8da51fc528593c9ebf9b02a38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | 73,143,813 | 73,143,813 |
7cb6f8831221eaf35ae99af93a5019b4b7ce3728 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 0.000132 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 73,775,107 | 73,775,107 |
d32259ffb980e4b6abbe38cab7d3b3efe1e09e6a | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xf45d627e09b910b429bf00c9006bae4f5f3b42e787b6e6b27f544946c61dfa3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,829,174 | 73,829,174 |
9f1f5fa086a44a2f08f7d34105b2226013720455 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x2a05c4416f02c6bb616816d7410c7d1602c6c2cf9a4f379286beebae4ec1d831 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,855,167 | 73,855,167 |
25baef266d926ff342c631d097b797a2aa20405f | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xd623bf4361a048b6aa2e8527c7edf605e6b6dba8bc4c1e40aa802c98624ad07c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Gonzalo García be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,931,456 | 73,931,456 |
5e10ed1e24e9252d10bb5ab2a748b03bbfed8b7a | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x54023e8b49c03fec0ea502acc1fd255edc292c2bf987c6259d95f0021c5d97e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | 73,969,928 | 73,969,928 |
829abcedff32b3573f3e9178c8e82752666919f0 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xaa6003296f7eda1fab2513a054df1bebd4c28eb449d905efccb81ba2c612772b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | 73,969,928 | 73,969,928 |
c6a0ee6d72d717afd7d76bbe86fb2c409f94107a | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x7f2b176849c46466a04ce7cb80d6541b2df30c1953b794a8f7f42c26ad15ca13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,089,829 | 74,089,829 |
0461f199357297ddcec9904dde779a349362dda0 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x7e80f40236c6a34ae8f83fa61b582f6253cbd930f8fd81ed355adb54382ad451 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will G2 Esports win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,157,911 | 74,157,911 |
62066837abdccf8219f08c833e2bfdfb0b0cf6bc | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x0c6c5cb8db69bd0927e05bf415f57fa37391951396cdba1f1b6a95e8b8a03f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,207,542 | 74,207,542 |
a2a93f584c2566c1974e285a5656c807483f64b7 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x84aa5ec005664dc2837d13c54d4c1f21c51b002eb9343b0ef19d2e831970b518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-league-of-legends | Will AG.AL win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,207,542 | 74,207,542 |
480020ae4ab065073d6824465c796456455cc80d | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xda0502b7ebe3c618614c7c82e24b4ba356cc6fd1157bcfaaf74f3e1022939e0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | eddington-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m? | 74,251,185 | 74,251,185 |
7c7e5cd4a76a5f8dc0e0d317101e7993c0e7308d | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xbdb1cd496f2d7156097c75669981489d6f7a6da5eaf9ca7317f28328c3538a11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | japan-house-of-councillors-election-2nd-place | Will CDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 74,268,812 | 74,268,812 |
4fb67cf31db624334b4e1c6105540f6ec6f6858f | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x24a218be0204c575b1e5ba67b5d0f9619e010ff8c918abd1561409432f498c99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | 74,536,353 | 74,536,353 |
a5e9a16f2c94777bbca16ee101006fb0bc97bb64 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x4a68d828f7263f34391484404380c34efa9566f12a08a88553ddbe8e285c3ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | 74,610,826 | 74,610,826 |
34c8fb7910cb27404e78585a0fd98a432dc821bd | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,649,181 | 74,649,181 |
bfcda514ef79a3fd3339b3e906216952d0d89a4d | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,577,887 | 76,577,887 |
1854d2b10d30d23d3c178f30acba7a965499df13 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,340,895 | 78,340,895 |
f6f66438584a26df06d6d2e1537fb38becbbcd54 | 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb | 0xb51f2db5996c86c3fdbac6d67d0fdead997d959ce0d86bad5203d16ee746da17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-argentina-deputies-election | Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | 79,573,492 | 79,573,492 |
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