sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16d278ad5835a7aeb57c4300c7ac721dfaf75e7f | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x841fe46ec4dc5b1c57f693878c0bfbd33ac1b576f1e17a0af1be2911c3c9fd40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-dcu-2025-09-20 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-20? | 76,729,281 | 76,729,281 |
64577dfd3f3140eac448ee1273f7689f011e8277 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x62a2b0a3b7871c4402c65fb1b07ce954a03afbfa5fa4dea78a9420cf48a6158a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mex-jua-leo-2025-09-26 | Will FC Juárez win on 2025-09-26? | 76,967,610 | 76,967,610 |
6ed4a85b9fb7318faece9e0a99958a18a64b90d4 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x26f92990a38a4f1be4e377ee9485e5935f78a85903c4d0c96652355df73a341e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-rsl-aus-2025-09-27 | Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-09-27? | 77,004,993 | 77,004,993 |
77969f63a3f3dbe1f07f88437adf2d9c1d809bae | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xd3ffaf4aa26c79a39a5cd8cfb8e3cc21bed71fcdf449428160d663edd8434f93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Will CF América win on 2025-09-27? | 77,004,993 | 77,004,993 |
78028b3a5e0b4b62455ff891ad9cd5969fe22ecf | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x48c5623b47c27b13fdbeb302447c93411b7e121a7435e812f9342ce246e4af11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mex-tij-caz-2025-09-28 | Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-09-28? | 77,108,168 | 77,108,168 |
7852dc97ae4d1ecc83f86b4a1db7743d3d27f989 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xaff97d30e919b8e61568282eec525e6d914875850449f6fc1c85db63d613a1a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-osa-2025-09-28 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? | 77,108,168 | 77,108,168 |
6742c762113e566ecf358fd6f4b1dcb04c90b666 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xff4e3dc7f768544649c99233fa67edbf49af3d1bef37decfb31358c2c9378a6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mls-mim-nas-2025-10-04 | Will Nashville SC win on 2025-10-04? | 77,275,088 | 77,275,088 |
15c35063149897408471450c3f2aa78a53c028f2 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x064364dd745641d83345476c4b474c67a578bc92aac19ac5ac78fd4ec6795414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,311,776 | 77,311,776 |
c0305f5d501c26b55e99ca0ab9964f1bc162ed42 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x8a0ca0699320513c6a9c70387552ba69a77f3b210cc55a329e353042e8ee0bf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-rsl-col-2025-10-04 | Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04? | 77,311,776 | 77,311,776 |
c095ecc6fe7e5c8bb876b60ddd3352d26a5cc5ab | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xb61302ede8fac9c62920edab6394df7d9f551e2d60c4f789485adeaa4cc71f3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-lag-dal-2025-10-11 | Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11? | 77,587,614 | 77,587,614 |
e79632f0a9faa2543a5c1e49ad430307fc807527 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x07864da63440337404544b04176cc7afab17d7af2cbeefabf5ccea29d9731d9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | 77,822,884 | 77,822,884 |
d37d4ba473891c939f8680e84dbce639f41901bb | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x0938b1476699b901067a3e365d82ac0f97d89629f4e0e42482153b5bdacde95d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mex-asl-atl-2025-10-17 | Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-17? | 77,842,202 | 77,842,202 |
910121954f118726775f28e9bfc6f58cbbcda1fe | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x7329fc965ee0f35fad0677612f9bf58ec1c76c89a8e7a98f3eb3b845e3bd1bd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | sea-pis-ver-2025-10-18 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,856,050 | 77,856,050 |
96b70e1984f560b65bd78e124912601c722a7481 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xf56bcea252a33d18846e73ef481e5ff87e43152d20fbd0aa76a5d3d08b11865c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mls-tor-orl-2025-10-18 | Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,869,738 | 77,869,738 |
7b44760c701818a497f331376a0a7013001482a0 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xa8d8e746d00fa19d28b2a43281fb967e182c57f4eb2f50d7b95f8bd387bcf06e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mex-jua-pac-2025-10-18 | Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-10-18? | 77,871,603 | 77,871,603 |
b085c7f745a475d8d2b6ceaf0a3e7b2f57d00a76 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x81b6e9f37f2fb6f8b84ae578ae5866cb3b0d8be55d69f6f787860fe47cefd441 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mls-col-laf-2025-10-18 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,890,814 | 77,890,814 |
6878a1a13a1a36054e030257d04d92d2fed6654a | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x91727a24867ff58b1eaab7872bc7d1f04213e357cc027b23549a358233a3cc0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mls-lag-min-2025-10-18 | Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-10-18? | 77,890,814 | 77,890,814 |
cd42924711cff24296efeb790fd4d72d399c6484 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xf5b2d230bc59165628f3253cbe6e9c5ea1c1e59a88a0cd429a08ecaaed6b9c35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-sje-aus-2025-10-18 | Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2025-10-18? | 77,890,814 | 77,890,814 |
a127c6c3e6ef4c1c73da7012d622586bfccda0e2 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x708fc13a46be91d0760509b6419e03672a6a43216cf8691c806b622916410546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | sea-cag-bol-2025-10-19 | Will Bologna win on 2025-10-19? | 77,897,396 | 77,897,396 |
31b90f16c163236e6451e6a6de9de3a4b5e9374d | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x19df0b07391962021e7e0e362b067f0a88ab6c371c69786b49e088fffe87f743 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | lal-lev-ray-2025-10-19 | Will Levante UD win on 2025-10-19? | 77,909,837 | 77,909,837 |
8303c6d21c399578d647b5b2b470a489278e5bf3 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xe73cf36bc3b38c743a88a795f5c235660718d6c24dd06afe8476b524184106b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20? | 77,950,651 | 77,950,651 |
978ac5e3b768a7b9f9c8c3935d0ca9cae00aa94b | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x1079f3f993c6d0ea5f8d84c03fbd3a8c5ffceb1d1c449425990832fd46b481e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | mex-nec-caz-2025-10-21 | Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-21? | 78,017,781 | 78,017,781 |
12f105bb126b687b40262ca3d307de346656c609 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xc938e944f8594fd68984f3eb54416f6cf293927aeec63950cbd7f697dabf8205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | no | 1 | ucl-fra-liv-2025-10-22 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,038 | 78,038,038 |
3e3d50c6a19688aac2e6ecec383fa69118e95270 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x96c87cef71264410e922e0847d09dfcf36f4d7697530e45b495e94e3267a12f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-12? | Event: fl1-olm-lor-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | mls-chi-orl-2025-10-22 | Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,061,176 | 78,061,176 |
2b081cc00243b24a3e849876fdfae152e868dfa3 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x0c4b6a559686ff339a9359395aa96e56b13115c8ade7c58181b61496c1addcac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-12? | Event: mex-maz-pum-2025-09-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF Montréal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-mim-stl-20... | no | 1 | uel-lyo1-bas1-2025-10-23 | Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2025-10-23? | 78,083,786 | 78,083,786 |
a3f2913c496dae7de5f7a9b280be2796b4f04081 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x17d98f09c6a309865f9151c0f89412f31afd07afd25cc2073e59832fc1ccfea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Montréal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-mim-stl-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: fl1-lil-tou-2025-09-14... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | 78,128,037 | 78,128,037 |
91f86b289949a066dd6c3197d80d97dbc8277484 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x382cc3d77c699d92e57f983431e70d169318da9031d57cf8e1afd2e6e7a266f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Montréal win on 2025-09-13? | Event: mls-mim-stl-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: fl1-lil-tou-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-19? | Event: mex-nec-pue-2025-09-19 | ... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-sev-2025-10-24 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-10-24? | 78,128,037 | 78,128,037 |
51bd941499f69d4a46c9b0775d61411d33af21c3 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x637c0bf2eee336f48a04661717d6b88aab3b68a5bb3c60f8a13fe6674ef92e33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: fl1-lil-tou-2025-09-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-19? | Event: mex-nec-pue-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-nyc-clt-2025-09... | no | 1 | mex-leo-pum-2025-10-25 | Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-10-25? | 78,191,896 | 78,191,896 |
516c2017cc97a28594f6c7a8788cd04ec8de7a27 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x8a87babc89d01373234e0d59d470514ebe843db2645469bec6eac800332624d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-09-19? | Event: mex-nec-pue-2025-09-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-nyc-clt-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-mia-dcu-20... | yes | 1 | mex-caz-mon1-2025-10-25 | Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-25? | 78,191,896 | 78,191,896 |
d76c506e940f441d2cb5f8b57450db615f956668 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x0d6d94166622df9ef7f7f4af250d49ba55f10ac037759b049444fb4e9c585fa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-nyc-clt-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-mia-dcu-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Juárez win on 2025-09-26? | Event: mex-jua-leo-2025... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | 78,205,516 | 78,205,516 |
2b91f1fe3239dd1a7602f7200b141d1cda9b12fd | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xedc86df2caed7e4d0ab02cd01ec45c550d730a496a150eb045f6221fcb6e4301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-20? | Event: mls-mia-dcu-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Juárez win on 2025-09-26? | Event: mex-jua-leo-2025-09-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mls-rsl-aus-2025-0... | no | 1 | sea-fio-bol-2025-10-26 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-26? | 78,212,792 | 78,212,792 |
dab6f31f37b8dc0694de02c639b4d23c5a33f584 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xb2978abe3f3f8113f9371ae2254a74b663bc56af41ad5ab46cf2d08f397b01f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Juárez win on 2025-09-26? | Event: mex-jua-leo-2025-09-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mls-rsl-aus-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF América win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27... | yes | 1 | mls-vwh-dal-2025-10-26 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-10-26? | 78,233,293 | 78,233,293 |
a9cb1b1fd42edb01d438fddc3d0d6832701c6402 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x568da53bee5c28f2bc93f3996905ff3e818afe074250c75a26322a185cb56f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mls-rsl-aus-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF América win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-09-28? | Event: mex-tij-caz-2025-09... | no | 1 | mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? | 78,273,169 | 78,273,169 |
ac57f54ab317b9cf0e31b1c70edf045d04bc69d4 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xc38f9afaa3f23299098495e585751dd889f6df881b128ad1f32f63885c4b8ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF América win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-09-28? | Event: mex-tij-caz-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? | Event: lal-bet-osa-2025-09-28 |... | no | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,340,746 | 78,340,746 |
ae4c8c63b74c08499f4f223185b60cd2af5cdc91 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x539c863d9355741b505b748197c6fa6ad9b449645c209ad180bef870290963ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-09-28? | Event: mex-tij-caz-2025-09-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? | Event: lal-bet-osa-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mim-nas-2025-10-04... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-lyo-2025-10-29 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,343,567 | 78,343,567 |
e7630aaab741fe45c64e9ad44f4e9728a0860ece | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x33a30115fd5fd61d63696ee2ae7663e12fe45c25f8bbd5e81d7eb2bca12c4d46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? | Event: lal-bet-osa-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mim-nas-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-aus-2025-10-29 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,368,146 | 78,368,146 |
20d87f52d87ce271774f28339aa8e28274dc307c | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x53b222f3228ca40f86f3ab5d27b6ee961af4f2e66007d6257f2e2c8dd05d0f8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nashville SC win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-mim-nas-2025-10-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-rsl-c... | no | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31? | 78,446,140 | 78,446,140 |
4931e2909dd148d5ed4e8d02513a3d7134358fd2 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x51957460aeafdc44ff72f1069294e28df0a77b941de5c6cd32825befbdaba20e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-lil-psg-2025-10-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-rsl-col-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11? | Event: ml... | no | 1 | lal-rso-bil-2025-11-01 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-01? | 78,476,935 | 78,476,935 |
ac4b26e8fd73c048933114cb38975b6d08b2dde2 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x988bdc12e302f8dac5e2f7d19a7fd7cfa3fbc3acac36b71a47fc6eb3f7d1a89a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04? | Event: mls-rsl-col-2025-10-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11? | Event: mls-lag-dal-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-202... | no | 1 | bun-hei-ein-2025-11-01 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01? | 78,476,935 | 78,476,935 |
7be5736267f339036f3341f56b8b05f35f275fee | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x090080fb8775dc4338e2a2666c6655b2c258856fa053cc8b546ffc3b305f2cc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-10-11? | Event: mls-lag-dal-2025-10-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-17? | Event: mex-asl-atl-... | no | 1 | bun-wol-hof-2025-11-02 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,596 | 78,507,596 |
fa778234d0a76a4f11129ad1452ef11f0d381985 | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x513e00c83a312a98de895ee5bd2e48352c559f45db3b1aa64aaa6ea7075c7eef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17? | Event: lal-ovi-esp-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-17? | Event: mex-asl-atl-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-pis-ver-2025-10-18 ... | yes | 1 | sea-par-bol-2025-11-02 | Will Bologna win on 2025-11-02? | 78,517,173 | 78,517,173 |
e608176e18b83ffc4241f5f6fe8abe6a1b9ddfea | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0xef0a6b62520a824171b8c6e40287466868eb57b5c60a8bc77ced6370ef1c74df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-17? | Event: mex-asl-atl-2025-10-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-pis-ver-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mls-tor-orl-2025-... | yes | 1 | mls-sea-min-2025-11-03 | Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,583,885 | 78,583,885 |
a9a99fa3d8987fb6315e869c8937330f9cc35aea | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x9696eac9c7513d62f4da136ea7714389da0808f4367521f824c530192bc30dcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-pis-ver-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mls-tor-orl-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mex-jua-pac-2025-10-18 | ... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-fra-2025-11-04 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? | 78,601,338 | 78,601,338 |
d911e45b7a8ff7db3d34ae40c08568c0e7f6ed3b | 0x25b09914073d47592226dac68bfe68cee85494eb | 0x21cbf00dff437e801fbe6176398cbdd42b43767cd623d579a25aaead0e958585 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mls-tor-orl-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Pachuca win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mex-jua-pac-2025-10-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-18? | Event: mls-col-laf-2025-1... | no | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,667,625 | 78,667,625 |
46acde5e491c1d26708ade59a44774e8e2d82bc2 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xc1763e94a3dcc967b6bb9ce60c907a30ed2d57088554612579bf8a42aa1ae009 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Netherlands win?
Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Will Netherlands win? | 59,214,525 | 59,214,525 |
b1112a4b0304ae543bca5d642f8a011a6d372c4a | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x460e096f1f430bfc8cf3500e008788ea7793ae1ffd8651e1310dc8f11a194d20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's?
Event: wimbledon-womens-champion
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice":... | yes | 1 | wimbledon-womens-champion | Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | 59,254,250 | 59,254,250 |
3069882a9fcc7289bb4039f631ab182256ad65cd | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x9c2e902df0284513bdddc8e15ef350f1946c8e84f63ccae4169761ffb918f267 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event?
Even... | yes | 1 | wsop-main-event-winner | Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | 59,860,847 | 59,860,847 |
4807d70c4d497361e73ae00bcb96619214f11670 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x8a8a2374b8a5497700eadca909ba22e59158b6b77bde0e07299eaa225c870363 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | 59,975,414 | 59,975,414 |
ff8bc62fe580e534dbc9587a9588d33578c58133 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x579e4651cb8436942b2f3c0b5593e521ffd70622321d6a9acd6eb0f2301095fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | 60,008,620 | 60,008,620 |
3a6579bb2258b4c710091fa48d1828804fb8ee36 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xdffce591646c65828e9b804e9855613c460bc50092534c80434b460df2eca2e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | 60,008,620 | 60,008,620 |
f062f76e3d18b5d32c30d46c3471a9cb4cc57a9c | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xa32bba99c9c3599de880ea6fd080742cb17682a5c3dcb9db0e3b7dc9a3bd3a9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 200m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly? | 60,057,615 | 60,057,615 |
2f8758571626e381b2988e68fa13a51d5cba88a2 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xdde10a52d84bbd49ce00a9243d62f21b4ee6116a013e076fd207d58a624eef2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,057,615 | 60,057,615 |
36cd6fefd6b102440d4daa28786901ff9b45c7ac | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x0b793017e0d92439d4419def8d4b7f56b6f910f7069ce446e4172e195198c4b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | 60,082,935 | 60,082,935 |
599ad95d6569e1e9576609aa207ae128ae31a9c8 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x12a4d7eb4ae4208d02c4cb774549eb8b9c7228beb0152ed70c051630ab23ce13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | 60,082,935 | 60,082,935 |
556cd40ac6b985618c9da71fc38b1b613c10f1a8 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x6bb91bd702f534851d7d14121e8984d89f79c5e8a32aec80e9e0a3a8a6695518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | 60,082,935 | 60,082,935 |
04ea9262bd140501e94dd68f8aae158d7bf94786 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x42b211c58e071ceee79b9c57deff6e578ce637eb877a0cf0598807f504c2f2b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | 60,132,643 | 60,132,643 |
636c334aad8b67c5052aacb26fe3428580ece835 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x5f0e67fb53d30a03a4b94e6a2781ca4b7495b638dd4c44ac2586b983769aba11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | singles-tennis-winner-w | Will Qinwen Zheng (CHN) win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | 60,158,602 | 60,158,602 |
efc143f8e9d27bccf7174734a63f7ff8d26cd368 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x998c5449dec2c85221a766ca25d27244d7ebe1850997060846dec34971b6faa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,193,795 | 60,193,795 |
8bc92b83579e39dcc1383a45c26ff8fd3be92d3c | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x2f71f9388fd56851cea91da5cbaf5fe13dd5c23523d3a0879dce9752f10d4db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | doubles-tennis-winner-w | Will Jasmine Paolini / Sara Errani (ITA) win Gold in Women’s Doubles Tennis? | 60,204,929 | 60,204,929 |
2805a3630f6d8b8b710d9ca4999dbcfe38a6da95 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x3d703783c6f9c42503ad59a0d9761f8ccbde4a738fa1925fca673c0372c4f788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? | 60,204,929 | 60,204,929 |
b87d23160137ba5559c0f570b1ddd672bd8245ab | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xeb203ebcdfab834b801aa2b5b8fba2c83c5b87522c1653581cd09b3ce24e35ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,408,064 | 60,408,064 |
b97acfb85cb6bb91c0759638f3f1e6265d043a21 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xb65fd8a28bda8a9bc28e0491db4d24bd6d90cae88161bb6c83e34c9c22cdcc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Brazil win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,530,881 | 60,530,881 |
a03198e809718693e7bbe8040cad363e66dccb44 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xb82873dcd25879dda82196711e0a3aed998605b88e701c5f6b95cd894e9836bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 60,530,881 | 60,530,881 |
4339e386975f0dd3f305424c463950bf77fc0cca | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x1cfe4c0d72f97d676ad951374a8c527f28aef0e6adf682aca5f85da72d102938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open? | 61,567,782 | 61,567,782 |
dba9eeba8bea6bcc673b3b4b5d75adc922deb80b | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xb1d986d7d0f3ad06f5d67750be77c3c576ae9744dcbd8abd6dfc676867d78517 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open? | 61,595,609 | 61,595,609 |
00fb00fb5edb8d06427c937853b4f9c7a64dc0b6 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x04d5e75c920683705a89a85a62a01cf842fbbaf5e0c78e302fc1371aa052afa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | 67,174,479 | 67,174,479 |
c79a9f0b5984ba499dcba0650a9964d6a39893ac | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xb6c1af40ff988d54721a0c0c26a53f9b82528276ce9cd17f6ffe2366ff34f16e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | australian-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open? | 67,174,479 | 67,174,479 |
eef72e27b2e1e602c556655bdfa3de50a742f9bf | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x64316167b0de8bc067d9e5d0ca3a2df77ad09c84744e2d791df45ed8e9888403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | indian-wells-open-winner-mens-singles | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open? | 69,109,491 | 69,109,491 |
aed20e72d95a08094f044efbce92a68aa970707c | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | 72,542,939 | 72,542,939 |
5a1babc0659cb81409ca373b6166ad1d1ac9197f | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xc35632edf91069a4ff6302f83d8bd871d589077f37bab921ef743278cc085751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,542,939 | 72,542,939 |
7dc156ee39d74d7716d8432bf7033a46896bc507 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x90108c492d2e7f6de3cd903faa2b314deabef7fee11d75a5f9f29ef8041552e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 2025-boss-open-winner | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Boss Open? | 72,808,334 | 72,808,334 |
92fb56161996b13b8ea720adb4d80a41cef2e0db | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | 72,939,233 | 72,939,233 |
990498be76d6c802343aa4ed9614ca991eb3cb5b | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xd1b383f18508856e8fbfc81ebce848828d94f0b190dc793350dfa5226515ad5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 2025-terra-wortmann-open-winner | Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? | 73,092,454 | 73,092,454 |
c07a25e5333d3ef9c02caf2fadbc88e1741e1f16 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x5f7b38a77e886476f658d3ce5b1fa778459dfe94122e9c7eb43a1f9913b2fd04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | sinner-vs-djokovic-final-score-sets | Will Jannik Sinner win 3:0 against Novak Djokovic? | 73,861,718 | 73,861,718 |
8622c3951e8bddcce7078ed41a6410de190c7bac | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x1e4f51ff4728d1948e37cf79651b58259d11182c94a4144018d9a9ff25b617f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netherlands win? | Event: euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-mai... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,901,710 | 73,901,710 |
4ec0cc9386fd46693722fd1aa4dbf44c5d82b102 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x160b8735820fff1145d1230892f86bd6f999e5f032abb49749685b1c4eb04be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? | Event: wimbledon-womens-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backst... | yes | 1 | tennis-swiss-open-winner | Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Swiss Open? | 74,200,278 | 74,200,278 |
f7f18eb43ece06d83ccde3adb2a5f5b3f9261c11 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xd6db5bd8ca3ce79b65c1925ebde9bacb4dfe55827dba467dea45c82820fd3de9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | Event: wsop-main-event-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win ... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-washington-dc-winner | Will Alex De Minaur win the 2025 ATP Washington tournament? | 74,500,339 | 74,500,339 |
6f2293c6eea8211604452e6003ef5b3ea209a583 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xfdc2235f1ab0d892865c2c2a4c204bb92bcfdcc4934c31bd244495aca22eb744 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | 74,941,130 | 74,941,130 |
7b3579d5d8fe0e54eb6765f90f8a0b6fcd8dcf5f | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? | Event: 100m-backstroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,575,792 | 76,575,792 |
06821245ca0ca2234d1a5f57363bc42f67d2ec50 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x0963ddebc0be7359ca6848c34dde51eb9251153b01d8fa88de83822af0d5dacc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Daniel Wiffen (IRL) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | cricket-asia-cup-winner | Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | 77,030,088 | 77,030,088 |
bb4b349f3e11044998c88590eeeb7ddb018e1ac5 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xe21887af62c2297c869cbf3d3a5e1ede151e599d91d58f80bde8bc86e88613ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12? | 77,614,247 | 77,614,247 |
a79a4a09c0fb35440f149e0e461a1caf9ad2727f | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xbb2a018e9d66ff380bf315e59b061e7942c3b0aae3f81496d5c248c7529fd206 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | muller | 1 | atp-muller-etcheve-2025-11-05 | Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Tomas Etcheverry | 78,651,327 | 78,651,327 |
e11ee98556adbf4639a530f0ff372e97dc1b949b | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x9307ddc6ea0bf56377fd195cd90e177480573b524010b2924fc7d824f0c1ec8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke? | Event: 200m-backstroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,166,138 | 79,166,138 |
7edd55a3b8d7126e7ff9076965ef1d80d5e5d976 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x8bb7f287856be5378e841874cdacd798f17a091e498cd976476e62e5e86ec8ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | uef-sco-den-2025-11-18 | Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,689 | 79,214,689 |
962127d2c1e8cdcaa909ba6e2feafc274d3614ad | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0xa68991332b23fb03598bb6e86942bd41c9e830f30f17ec19e8d53e573540251a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly? | Event: 200m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-slv-2025-11-18 | Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | 79,214,689 | 79,214,689 |
5c2c4918c2781cfbe0189b178dc98daea3cc018a | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x6ef34d5c7937cb8a1eb22234ddce8fe3eb1595e1f35c7d4f2101c58f3506e580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qinwen Zheng (CHN) win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | 79,351,222 | 79,351,222 |
aa3b614832288c4ad4d9d2cc67b9feeedcaedad5 | 0x25bfc5364d26671ee6620fbb9f3cd13a69bf7a56 | 0x812d8819cda5c57e824719de0381d8e207a45b5b71da31a6425f6c2f181a3fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qinwen Zheng (CHN) win Gold in Women’s Tennis? | Event: singles-tennis-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Event: tennis-winner-m | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jasmine Paolini / Sara Errani (ITA) ... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | 79,351,222 | 79,351,222 |
67ade7e7f7309045e594c761e104b214dd6ee794 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0xba3e42e1b49b99232a9b99b15c895008a74634b233dba423c4ebf0986ec565a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3)
Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | furia | 1 | cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | 79,051,091 | 79,051,091 |
25127eb969ea623a347a7d08793dec21fedcaf59 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0xf09befd37e71aaebf79d58e23cf3906a9947115b21d4d3fd41a45763bb60a2de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner
Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | furia | 1 | cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | 79,097,807 | 79,097,807 |
0015f744dc33194e69f8a89785dacd85f11d5774 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x1115f643f8473959988882b32e5ccf34efad439ee73579f7707bff8cc65dc4ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,102,853 | 79,102,853 |
a0ce941425951e6c4a45735478238fa8a0d18351 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x990da5cb42847870916d21704ca03e89968fa47ad2423dc53b23fd703e2aa3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will FURIA win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,102,853 | 79,102,853 |
dc5078e8ad8000c1320f4a12583f4edbd4e385f9 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x1d11bd9a353dd72a58ff9762bf4e156731e5115028b9fed7058cba9a88998bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | og | 0.959469 | dota2-og-bb4-2025-11-20 | Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner | 79,270,921 | 79,270,921 |
7c3b8e30ff7c86d1d6c66abc027825c9efc6a098 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x04acd6594712c61564811cbc9342d015512c0ee52107b68711e98ff173469402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | heroic | 0.428928 | dota2-mouz-heroic-2025-11-21 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner | 79,303,904 | 79,303,904 |
0187a8178debf4a46ea807ff2ff4fa0289a3a981 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0xab4c333914a9ec2cd9d890a73edfbc6d0b26e3e01d989d3d76e233fd549443c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | heroic | 0.000006 | dota2-mouz-heroic-2025-11-21 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) | 79,305,986 | 79,306,379 |
329a21e11a1a17196bd466569ff34020efebf8b2 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x070592d682562effff03c9e0e3bf063f188bc8af311be9e4a4206b1e2dceb9dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | parivision | 0 | dota2-pari-ts8-2025-11-21 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) | 79,319,106 | 79,319,106 |
c78b7f475beefe7ec0cea7a717eab215c689475f | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0xbaed30e3ff720de298d92ee9826dcf0bb2ed04a6598c0ecda86f534c6b28ed7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | og | 0.998077 | dota2-og-liquid-2025-11-21 | Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | 79,320,733 | 79,320,733 |
adacf828f08343f65edd1ffc159d1da889973bb0 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x2ed035b14338f94a11e5819d9689e6439040586dbfd849a0d5d6995e50069705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | og | 0.688409 | dota2-og-liquid-2025-11-21 | Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO3) | 79,325,514 | 79,325,887 |
2e991cc0c841af1f6689d7f8fb95bd3415e0c583 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0xb67bc970050c58bf8f854a852e6f1496fa0f53bc07e3c143b0c3bfa9ed616663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | under | 0.000264 | dota2-og-mouz-2025-11-22 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | 79,355,525 | 79,355,525 |
4b34db99dd8e5750c1f40c62f838ccfbc982967b | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x3b3dbff2e75049d335b3321bcbe8dfd21d1926da71b9842193837a655efa6543 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | team liquid | 0.896504 | dota2-ts8-liquid-2025-11-22 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) | 79,358,039 | 79,361,317 |
e27509e311ea1a0f990380020f6bca0dee12e1ca | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x36ae2b9ae3a4f2fd5510793392c898e7f007df02efe89718141930faa9e0f9f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | betboom team | 0 | dota2-mouz-bb4-2025-11-22 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) | 79,366,062 | 79,382,023 |
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