sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4472cebb0841e0c68da114a052657889cc3afe97 | 0x25ed12036ed735c02bdec0530b78fe2ee9336ac6 | 0x2baf81180ac7c83661d3051d2ea523eeeb3ca148117f2c915e7933209be9cd1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | Event: cs2-furia-pain-2025-11-15 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | Event: cs2-furia-fal2-2025-11-16 | Choice: furia | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Blast Pre... | execration | 0 | dota2-og-xctn-2025-11-25 | Dota 2: OG vs Execration (BO1) | 79,496,757 | 79,496,757 |
1bca6c637bb0351739bf36317656b05e62128f7e | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x10523307401d930692208f80108a49a15061fddd3c21b116062c576de68a3b0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13?
Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | 69,310,618 | 69,310,618 |
b42fe1697f3ad3fa10c03dd8d78e6f788ef59412 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x832baba7ea82158fd165d2133d20104813efddbe49fe09a06327fe5eb081750c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60?
Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score
Predict the user's choice ... | yes | 1 | captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | 69,310,618 | 69,310,618 |
5acca84665140b9b756c1cea014d6926e84ff019 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xbcec35df879043d808cf92cac54f859297f0c6c227bc67c4fc69e79b632f76e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Targe... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | 69,310,618 | 69,310,618 |
c2a4227a8d504a44affe29031382aef098187a38 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xcbd440685777bf7146409a916408e3e83a78c886c74c46e733d44958a756847b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17? | 69,310,618 | 69,310,618 |
e610bd11ab3be79dceec145ceb5dd4105cb4e41e | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xd809047dfee4314ab16d95cb3d4bd2f986dd70a1067f57dcaaf77e86610eed52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-14 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.9% on February 14? | 69,310,618 | 69,310,618 |
23730e8406511d8604a81e828222f1836e001229 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x313f680b4eacd5d5d9b95aecee48e0e1f54261d32f68fbcdda12aa816e534e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | liberal-party-of-vote-in-canada-election | Will the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | 72,554,852 | 72,554,852 |
e0b8ee05577974499b3f14252cb42dc1541571a0 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xdffca503462dd7b2dfd683a5ed103f14e9749d9584fbd1a1d507be4c47cc0f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | from-the-world-of-john-wick-ballerina-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m? | 72,577,839 | 72,577,839 |
35268b318f08e29fa394b2a6e4fc963e23241117 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x21d6356c7559c675a113467a49821a526312835a110bfbf6445ba451ef160dbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | mls-columbus-crew-vs-vancouver-whitecaps | Will Columbus Crew beat Vancouver Whitecaps? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
ce9d0741b65a5f18392455327f03ce95b370628b | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
7d8924e32db58df8d0dcf4c5ae139f2d3e5816ea | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x82caddfaebd9071c0c82503dcb035bd25ef932fee0fd6ed5fb642c6dbc95408d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 13? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
e083881ed9df04c420a54a1c88dcdd0aca1bce9a | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x867dfc45a18cd4d00ef69f4e0b6170fb65e019eb3a17e4f0c6b609af6afebc9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | mls-sporting-kansas-city-vs-fc-dallas | Will Sporting Kansas City beat FC Dallas? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
5d0ee092d04c77139f0490d6e2126c103092ee8f | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x90108c492d2e7f6de3cd903faa2b314deabef7fee11d75a5f9f29ef8041552e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | 2025-boss-open-winner | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Boss Open? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
09233fbd8334ce7e907e149b3aa45403d9ac018f | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0x9ecdfa4386aae99b911d15d42bc4da29cc52dc2a00d82a7f34b7231aa31f5d35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
b646b3790be8d700d6a5e756bb824614a5886dd4 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xa882e8f48047f97d3b1f341c9c98e92c1b484b812bde299b96c0f69cfa5388c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
6c0294d785581f4639d6086111c966e9cb4013e7 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xad14874c4df52fa96ff603c44537630e4b96df4d3354de9aaf906b4df5bb6e8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
8d594e0c9831d32c91725c02253a0f89ccd4f992 | 0x2608faf9ed208e70ac9c6948cecb2bc2e28b71d3 | 0xb663a73523efeeb88a4a6f00fbb897b1591a51e1cba665a6035da2c98cfe75ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? | Event: uel-paok-fcsb-2025-02-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? | 74,256,295 | 74,256,295 |
41ae401a5651406183f9c57ef31c117fa45a58e3 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xa4365bbde736540c48f9c684b9ada7341a5c42503d7b75bbe090456ed216cc19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | 70,218,774 | 70,218,774 |
6b7e11cf0104b737876dcc8100f825b856aaef38 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xdb4300b08ade8b7a4130406bd8ab9085524e8c3d182a7c52d159a5d287214dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June?
Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june
Predict the user'... | yes | 1 | israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Israel military action on Yemen before June? | 71,156,138 | 71,156,138 |
c9e5732c70a11dcea4359f4d65f86d610b0b30bb | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x64b7898c668b1741d8288de45ef55031ebf23eed29c555fade52ba450648c0f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Gregory? | 71,293,686 | 71,293,686 |
418f7f7658238d91a0c4ac95c291e31279873bde | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x2d8fd37760d0c045db3f8f15e466d753a705ff764882754e8d56181875866228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Francis? | 71,293,687 | 71,293,687 |
476d286c80199582beb4b08b06e9b40cb260c039 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x5936d5be80127b6af585dedf834349476764bf8604c08e5106df237a58e7b6c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Washington Commanders be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,815 | 71,554,815 |
e1af8103924c3caa365e2ae71952b5d5c4cda97d | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x61a513491f2326563bb08324c7d9be8426531e96c267bd9995e99f7900576c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Philadelphia Eagles be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,818 | 71,554,818 |
ff723b964174046c5b2c6772bfadb0c79dd57ea2 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xa9ffde9e0092f7a3daf6c7ffb94fedd1138f0d3b58d06e9a609c850d36440bf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Los Angeles Chargers be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,818 | 71,554,818 |
77929d1242995bf19a31f07948d31f132f7c3708 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x10e6d2c5e85a8dddc662692417f269ed80a2cdd697160e267f825e8f9c448ce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Minnesota Vikings be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,820 | 71,554,820 |
5c39c07f6a30f49df218be1cec2c83a8d2457b1e | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x0f17cb3aecf6c0d1861b5c26ae2f790f6f9002d2d686549fca1a80d3042722c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the New York Giants be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,822 | 71,554,822 |
9af01dfa26564ad0649bef17c787be1cc9859c15 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xb8ba1b067459b5dbb5f15541e9d726f6dd4782aca73442c1f879629615710f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Green Bay Packers be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,824 | 71,554,824 |
2f8cd3c8140ec1ebf0f15ba2e905d89937e4870f | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x63be1a0570f477224855e56ddd6fbc97d78bba8c9c96e21be19b1e9d56b3f09d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Will the Arizona Cardinals be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | 71,554,825 | 71,554,825 |
e5c016d8d197f3feeca842656e2858a2e0b489ad | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xbb892b23a181c19044c0fa588841da89d888ef367dac33ffff77207b9e4ca918 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | pga-championship-top-liv-golfer | Will John Catlin have the best finish at the PGA Championship? | 71,662,473 | 71,662,473 |
795b037b17d451864a8f6c8399829ed5143a8185 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x64e1d8e619fe3be141e7b3c0dfa341268a525ece139c0f41470be23d6434cbec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 71,712,146 | 71,712,146 |
bd0dc67a7aff58aa3331c58ce181c4a6fdfdf38b | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xc9ba0fb959388dca847421994ceafd85d901a8eb360bba626c36ee6d741bac51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19? | 71,738,756 | 71,738,756 |
5e20c1d973015e212f53837e997368238d67abd0 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x2e37a469e1698c4e59eb143be346d869be4582526a4498ea88ed5ecb57622741 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71–72°F on May 20? | 71,780,134 | 71,780,134 |
60db788c310b6c4a4beab046dd46c8b9f6dadfaf | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xc7ff699efd531618d0d61928d065655626e14925472f37da1d66ebf86f39c573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.999768 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 21? | 71,780,313 | 71,780,313 |
09afc12f70d04eccbe5125de2443d33612a509dc | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xdc1e5c7209f283d438a8cb6b6ed325a7dfa2e2a790f0a2ab4e48ce841ebde3f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on May 21? | 71,798,306 | 71,798,306 |
6face29775f846b2ef4149ca67dbb3d4b09a8df9 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x66593ed281d1d0076d65025ce463bb2c9157dc21b79e285d2e1a90238388e9aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58–59°F on May 21? | 71,826,235 | 71,826,235 |
a1fcaa1250ab8303f0a5214eb750d44c0a2276f8 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xc58011d3adc81dee0ce14cd3abf596033a29e882796cd45af988863e232ada24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 22? | 71,857,926 | 71,857,926 |
30f4fa90e18844186209b8e6e41c4e640ba68dc0 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x5f96701185fc4db945e2e0d10d83429cc219beea4b7b7aac91c05b13650221a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-23 | Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 23? | 71,915,588 | 71,915,588 |
bf8e2f8e2e5294aad6fdfad2ad0853c344f9ca64 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x27f2265bb32692f72098a34d9ff103af00627f5596b0bb827c8f8d71c5c40974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | f1-monaco-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,979,079 | 71,979,079 |
f980bed939d2628339d6f34e5b2a6513ac865f80 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x62325e4f2147072212ad4fbcaac015a31ae9aa5b5623042d40906f8a0a121fee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-25-799 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 25? | 71,979,079 | 71,979,079 |
229beb12ddb2fd7d34fa091a870f13daef0aa8ef | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xdbca36893aa835f72ce564c070f5422f84f381004ea49d3840a99b075b22a817 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | 2025-indy-500-winner | Will Alex Palou win the Indy 500? | 71,979,083 | 71,979,083 |
c2adf7d96a547509a09d18d90361775c130a366e | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x512196a0f554c78a15713d4ea00e57da1b7850f16931d35cfdb9cf88b69ce764 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or below on May 28? | 72,069,710 | 72,069,710 |
141b55447f202c714922b5066d02a589970626d4 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x66065aa0afed562403d8d914dee55407c5e3999dfe4b1fb0672178963f41be40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59–60°F on May 28? | 72,069,710 | 72,069,710 |
b4afa0e6b82ed543860941866ff4a915c002b600 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x6bab47960aebb1fe315590e225d62709d0c610be04ea017b120a55b84cdb94f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 28? | 72,104,299 | 72,104,299 |
34121e9d6185f2593754d4f1bf0720310ea4fcd0 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x9e06848e5e3cc9bbeb07c68fdf74572f61166c44b4af8670161621de800d0626 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nba-western-conference-finals-mvp | Will Alex Caruso win Western Conference Finals MVP? | 72,104,299 | 72,104,299 |
eb840f7698a92a7a7fbc27e7fd7e2a273ede8e22 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xea56e095d86aa2a8f7486ab23b1f6dc1f31635b9d116b9b2351d5ac617509599 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 29? | 72,122,983 | 72,122,983 |
19e2f3eabf85d9efc91329e7626ca9280e45407d | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x3cc843b950b036849d63a28fb2c233b081dbb410418d3f2f5d8212b7d7171116 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or below on May 31? | 72,197,522 | 72,197,522 |
cf4a2d3dc095520423365d0899a81bd8db526dea | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x25dcf41b951919d9abe55b7dc4aa26ad60c0a6cc55ce66db21b6868e36beeb45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May 31? | 72,206,426 | 72,206,426 |
16267bf01b36043ca6e7014bb78ba2546a8bedbf | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x203fc8450ff6b426816f1d5e9ec9986e43a34053498cff9ea14464641a3a2a38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Andrew Nembhard lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
a65b2085194812edb42fb759d0c0f8b6b078d729 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x2da6e8a7b3edb3ef2ccdb853038e3bb320206fe8636e5d00eb14497de3f7a992 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel military action on Yemen before June? | Event: israel-military-action-on-yemen-before-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Gregory? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope b... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Aaron Nesmith lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
55e786ed3d3d958c9b547109650b6afd964e78e0 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x753a5d90e5f9ba07f0f948fbc59042214fc46c5a147a40eb21d18c779d4f5f4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Gregory? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Washington Commanders be... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
b83456d9080a6c94833afefbed3455bb08b7d78e | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0x8503728ec641ef851f211ebe014b207ac86357f4266afb5e3e49c6c90811e407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Washington Commanders be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Josh Hart lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
1c978c3959e2ff35dd6d286b584a4305df7edd22 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xbd11b1061f6b04623ca025280925bf7b92d0b40ca700bd4ce38a5f3ed578d7cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Washington Commanders be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Philadelphia Eagles be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Donte DiVincenzo lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
6ba01b20b4d960a617fabc4f6ce19368698c6604 | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xe9a0be3caaa7151ba3f6642f6ffa8424ac996c5a94c269a362bcfc5d0087c43b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Philadelphia Eagles be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Chargers be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-w... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Alex Caruso lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
128db03aad7ea4699d58bf52dae5c9775953c4cf | 0x261066ea2ab5c966eb0294a979587aa626774b04 | 0xfc88a75cb1d4b9f59e67098210ae56ccdfc82ff1e3e2941071e0f7e1199ca198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Los Angeles Chargers be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-will-cowboys-play-on-thanksgiving | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Minnesota Vikings be the Dallas Cowboys' Thanksgiving game opponent? | Event: nfl-schedule-who-wil... | yes | 1 | nba-conference-finals-points-leader | Will Jaden McDaniels lead the NBA Conference Finals in total points? | 72,227,044 | 72,227,044 |
66487b5f9bc81692cfacd26a5c3b1a1d212da768 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xa2825b68597bd8879822ac42e1d7a511c2e981ef474553709e9d43b2622b27f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | 71,937,124 | 71,937,124 |
142e99708ff205036dabe4d3d69f0c5aa19e6383 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x1200736a45697a560ed22f6050a7936d414f92d5894a1eea265f15314c6d8761 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24
... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | 71,937,125 | 71,937,125 |
0806e5a4f3a22e9105763aa9eb9a5fd49d82e3d4 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xa3337588b31ccbc91556423f591f29b63e62d81abbdb0b5217e763a1a63e0e8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 26? | 71,993,778 | 71,993,778 |
1c32d0e519291c4fa9c2e488d90e9f3a47eeee8a | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x0834dc8747c0c631c2d38cd752837899948461152f65a80c4745405e6834cf65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71–72°F on May 29? | 72,143,792 | 72,143,792 |
9c91abdb6768da50220fe4977340af8471483017 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xd450b01dfa52401282e5c0c9e9f3c76b3c2173910af840dfb79d71eb7a6eebc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 2? | 72,305,228 | 72,305,228 |
e68c89afb304e16feb6e15c27b9007a2fefc5850 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x805f265bdaf1c6038216050806165f8cf62db3290975afc87fde84da52de37be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or below on June 3? | 72,343,040 | 72,343,040 |
5c28e43d0c1fd173111e4c7561278dd0591014d6 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x1f62830c12cf5a207152036a8b0bc6b0d5b967c828cdad97a052cc5a203b4c76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on June 5? | 72,419,602 | 72,419,602 |
df4323686bb3c36c45d5eebc5c479db74e043350 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x3be3df6a51bc75419a8f2931c2aeb98cd2a90cd4d0095f5260fd790e8cc86e18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on June 5? | 72,419,602 | 72,419,602 |
03d15aee7153f5937c5eb94bc0bad1c3059f9107 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x72c08a76dbce0a2a0a5a167de88fc6610aac35b96ec84582f96ddbaeb11f3b33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on June 5? | 72,419,602 | 72,419,602 |
e2f13a9d62a4358cffb6ee65c42483b63b9da6d9 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x8aea00072a730b0e94d2bb4bc4d52fd4aee0e4664234a4c1557583a8664a60d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on June 5? | 72,419,602 | 72,419,602 |
0c566f6aa2122e41ba6d9bbb0a17c97f073b7d84 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xfa21cb30f29d1f34d332cb54e8dd7b919d51eb9e09d7f3c6259ca3bc82894200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on June 9? | 72,512,995 | 72,512,995 |
3656f693de9cd3b84e75a5f5f0ef4f7ff0f59e17 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xb42ffe50fa9485ffadc5eea337588cb83ad1a68baefc9d530bf2bf5fe3a4c200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on June 11? | 72,591,421 | 72,596,819 |
2307d3a92a04d8be51a0d37f8c3518f05f0d2df9 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xdd7f4847854d34c7fa63cface52815f3539b978c137d3cbf7a387598a7ffae87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 10? | 72,621,835 | 72,621,835 |
216827d01cd4b0d51d105f39147333d118bb0343 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xfc01bda197079a99abde5e86940ff490560d469e0f5a2110fcde07428ad09da0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 30? | 73,433,422 | 73,433,422 |
0848f0bef86f9c063fef44b1cbf345efe41277f0 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xb393c6a6726e85d0db8e3d402f34db4f8bb877c92e91576458a2b6c2ab03eebe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on July 1? | 73,454,933 | 73,454,933 |
b8051151ab6cc942be0069f05fc795c531dd7842 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x6bf0ab4091fae5b60c655520a03fb074215c63c6885cd70e392ecc1e2c4de119 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 0.074045 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be 95°F or higher on July 1? | 73,481,213 | 73,481,213 |
30f88f98cde02b8e7d0922b5327f6163fb3937e8 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xb4e0938f339bc8a8ea7d5b130263039ddfa105d73f9987aa055006613aa186f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 1? | 73,481,213 | 73,481,213 |
fc0c7b9c5ea91f6c2480df192f478205e7343c64 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xe77f674a804d3057659cf7998be4246e3e67c86763ca478712fd15a677344c2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 1? | 73,481,213 | 73,481,213 |
edc57e2476b8e128d1898d1e2c8a61a44d219a7f | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x92604765a10d803c2c8fe1857a6200b6534310af6df62bf52afd0c6ffdb48d86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 2? | 75,200,883 | 75,200,883 |
df9fb8a727b41697d07ba0a460271decb5e6eec9 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on | Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? | 75,200,883 | 75,200,883 |
97842b3cec7b75978f5f01a97446544943f3add4 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x32f6179387ffa056295c11527f829ea4293ea25aa3ce5f74708fb3ff4335fe00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or below on August 26? | 75,673,399 | 75,673,399 |
0621cfac1bdfb20dd2fd642472144b6683af0375 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x33b62d1b90bb13502baea41372c08a69c631e148bdb354d6d3df52a1a20f241d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 28? | 75,795,477 | 75,795,477 |
f61fa7fd8f69273100c58f1f4fe7b6f037f90e21 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xc4c396fba115e5b830899b181b27b9ce12d73b3fa9d47022412dfa85c608e733 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 28? | 75,795,477 | 75,795,477 |
35b5af29adeb836f09a6b4d45bf6d7c9973271ad | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xe76efdaae245cf4ad5df0e0c0f81a012ac613546d79ee9ddd2eb4b15acfd9fcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on August 27? | 75,795,477 | 75,795,477 |
c27193b001da4f25a910bdee3d2c19a2d38a5d53 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x91fee005ef5744d9deece971e44093f2a1dd14ec3d8f8b1d78e0cfa3aaf97bd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 0.215686 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 30? | 75,925,266 | 75,925,266 |
754a196e790e2018fb46f5b589584d406b110e1d | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xbb6855d20e071daf3e1a02d018a648fc1552a0e2104dea1d0e621802b2f4a019 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 30? | 75,925,266 | 75,925,266 |
31988239da1e50a364e5fe0518af5ecb1d140e6f | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x464df246d06317931ad6aaff6782e634cfb2fc3fcc0150b16f7e8d5a45cfaab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on September 4? | 76,089,751 | 76,089,751 |
3979aa8944adc269187e9731adff76d626986c22 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xb88eeb54fa2b4971b7945d9c2dfa4b6fbd1be76c3cfacd868376a7683e0704c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on September 4? | 76,089,751 | 76,089,751 |
94572bfc2b6c223b8f3fa7f2726ab25e97ddccfb | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x551f2f96038a20f76561db111b5d68936e9f50971a4a7c21b5e9a08571e3029f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 9? | 76,320,391 | 76,320,391 |
ab32f40cd8c2f3e92fd40b4dab7a4be41d082e82 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x12df16348ec4643fb0ff19bbc6db331e5ba81b777cde03dc3d6cc336aa976113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on September 11? | 76,349,087 | 76,349,087 |
742bfc1e7b583a306a8f2ffbe3350e8dc1b28dc4 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0xc24babce57822da0cabb8d469804f2301272c3c5ee27f8278ba59b9b3e7ff759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on September 14? | 76,523,487 | 76,523,487 |
6bc1e335207d5a9016cbb1efade194e77cbff606 | 0x26b4f0b0b0a3e1ed4022aef3eb424963643f5fcc | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,642,424 | 76,642,424 |
69f228ba570bafc5d243f3e3891d6db9f612751f | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,986,295 | 63,986,295 |
b8f565f79a1e8e68adaa97578c8e917cf61e99f4 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x329b0bada35554e509f8d9e8d85a86ab70a787dc7f6f3fd06e4715c31f543823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b?
Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict... | yes | 1 | first-trump-coin-to-1b | No Trump coin reaches $1b? | 66,252,958 | 66,252,958 |
d3d56dabb630052cf102766a4868fe64248461c8 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurate... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 66,953,100 | 66,953,100 |
3ccb9710e3571b84d014f2a91cbe1b22aec51258 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 66,953,107 | 66,953,107 |
04a005c3b492848fe12805a9247d2a93430721d5 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xd84038d257ee2be579e71661823d8f4978e4f54cb566fe31fd4ee5a353052787 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | 76,871,734 | 76,871,734 |
fd19f24c7a373fae88552967fc1e1a01eec89540 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x19add5536ad50dbc5512ba896c7a40bf86908e918fa5f12b91efc938b65fd303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-fer-plz-2025-09-25 | Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw? | 76,911,000 | 76,911,000 |
58004185a39d4a73270c3ecd94440c58eaf24f09 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x1aff9dbed23fd1051e9869b0d1c7da22d8e7b1f5c37035eb4bc9ebd8e0a9bc7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-byn-pao-2025-09-25 | Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
3fb8cadff69a88e8b75c357a1c4b07189cd4b8bc | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x44d4ca6460ef020fef9e4ec713284bd10a3eb68caf6c801eacd63e69acf7dd03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
9533f4dc4ec2166a25a413ba0cb59b3e21b84bf7 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x5789dc57a0c76e679b0250eb0e2e920c40d87db1580dfdc32f563cc5b74a2639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
82557cdbb544b9f03f83e4e09c1ad1b66843e6af | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x6216f553aa0779f11f4893e0bc7e0297ff1cdea5a03fd74010a982c12b688d20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-goa-fcsb-2025-09-25 | Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
922f58a5a5f29ddc77143220b97052512e7afd32 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x7ba6a6b6366bb7fe247fb640274f715f73211be4ebf0e8a421c156f1eb93e818 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
d2eb81d7303b1f9048abc68171ae2896909e5bc1 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xb936f50c8712fcca8d2fc2fd1d1228d49d164751e417f514cbdc8c9af5daa480 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
ee478cc133a1827dd85db05493aff42d1dfc3e4b | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xe8108efa832554bdfb39e51e230c224a6136c8bb84532ecb2e0d526dd964099a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
e95604816522e5c7cf862a3b629ce9fc4c6a7be7 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xf592fd01211568f21cdb9fb31bb8294de7f2d5d1b15c3233090a38b3eb40c6af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? | 76,928,770 | 76,928,770 |
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