sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e46e789582de35453a00e8e9cf0374a67536a18b | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xd895ed2c9a4965dd92baec270a46a64842fa0c4093750f62eae913c3a10648d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,992,930 | 76,992,930 |
d5ed54d4cdedf9f68dbef10a33121047d7771a32 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x0963ddebc0be7359ca6848c34dde51eb9251153b01d8fa88de83822af0d5dacc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | cricket-asia-cup-winner | Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | 77,033,640 | 77,033,640 |
f4c147dcbca550c9622885025e879ec5009f5ff5 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x79bda8a6e6e2fa42136d057c9c7c40cff62816a56d5115ce506f8024e0f12555 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? | 77,152,791 | 77,152,791 |
f985ea41bdc7916a18e3931def046a9f1ea2c9a6 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,154,106 | 77,154,106 |
314adbefe872844b2d37b9b4719b95a19ba641f7 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x07a36db54be57b4356d09ef4fa280f7182968bbf6888023741a02eed4b4afcf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | mex-atl-jua-2025-10-03 | Will Atlas FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | 77,242,353 | 77,242,353 |
2a3e01981c1729b8b0f2e347c19b9d83d3d28909 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xbe549614d8901334fb0bbeeb7889d65a2982b0ab120ce5ef0a8d8eda936b7a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | fif-uzb-kuw-2025-10-09 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2025-10-09? | 77,467,635 | 77,467,635 |
628f5108b52b03acba9d6207f1a972b92b4bfa14 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xc706073c2b47a4765eea553ca5df5ea06f2e8a1f9896d5f06177efa2e17b6625 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | australia | 0 | cricket-icc-ind-aus-2025-10-12 | ICC WWC: India vs. Australia | 77,587,230 | 77,587,230 |
ad0ef25c340b2a53cbc53cabd69e810b7a5749bf | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xf40e6609e2248e3c86df5d9a1618427700ecf23a91c95c81ccafa7c5193e8d74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-18? | 77,853,144 | 77,853,144 |
740a4b2ade374bc23ec3a4123aa8b3c67cce12c1 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x344b92fb5f46a83c32a954fb4c42f0945d784a5681c4fe710f169225f5caba7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,046,425 | 78,046,425 |
827697c576a0443bd3b6a930553e666f08a3c410 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x739fe6b07f3c40f4522a9dde61c46cbaaabbdfb0c840a3b512a7a93f8e2afb6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | elc-cov-wat-2025-10-25 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,155,555 | 78,155,555 |
a75716b2e11e67afceb69371a3d1b2a54bbaf3ab | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x113180003722c3a38690f828aea8925a4305eae12edd53582bccdfe3c25f6679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-lei-2025-10-25 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25? | 78,175,779 | 78,175,779 |
6dd6219d000bccf781bc0ad74e2cd35165dee47c | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x4e1c130ea05c0beb25bc5f7e1ced0359651b9abeac000529709aa96e17d80435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | epl-eve-tot-2025-10-26 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-26? | 78,260,387 | 78,260,387 |
c0fb7fd692bf342d8cb09821c7fcd41401570183 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xb2671ef12566bcf376193aab6f5503d1d0d6502edc81482e92c9b42a2bf091bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | 78,260,387 | 78,260,387 |
408eda1466f24625a1bc71eb529a239ca3f011f6 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x4608e77181e31ea47bc5fa13499ca568ec7d9a32dd3b3ec74f78620caed5f7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,453,640 | 78,453,640 |
2b25900ab7669db3c690f0a74573548c2afacac9 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xdb7d252b3e426a6a4a09a78c38c4c44e69adf90c99ba4bfb198ae5b10de065ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01 | Will Changchun Yatai FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,453,640 | 78,453,640 |
5837474292a459b9aeb3c55e58446b6ec70f4af9 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x7a55fcac01c2b7879bd62b91ffd69310c645ccdf5cb37bc179e9dc838e812f56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | elc-nor-hul-2025-11-01 | Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,477,798 | 78,477,798 |
98c9a3777447b814a081f937b8710533d9cb14b2 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x583f89a4e9d8b96f5d01067862c193ba6d3ed65d5dc6659ac19217f51879d6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: w... | no | 1 | ja2-imb-veg-2025-11-02 | Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2025-11-02? | 78,502,263 | 78,502,263 |
546124f83469ad72955495d56d603229c90c5cf4 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x49f81f67e1ff8d4d7b68fe8a355ecf49a125b6e4c1e030a9b1fc1db69df7578c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No Trump coin reaches $1b? | Event: first-trump-coin-to-1b | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugura... | no | 1 | rus-bal-ter-2025-11-02 | Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2025-11-02? | 78,503,038 | 78,503,038 |
2f1e006535c2f28aa0152e9614709d7fa71db060 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x1c1bd6900085a5a6bbf232401751e540e189044eed4f354d5c80f8a808d00c99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | E... | no | 1 | mls-sea-min-2025-11-03 | Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,572,258 | 78,572,258 |
28338e349096a32135497d21f326cda4df554301 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xef0a6b62520a824171b8c6e40287466868eb57b5c60a8bc77ced6370ef1c74df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw? | Eve... | yes | 1 | mls-sea-min-2025-11-03 | Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-03? | 78,572,258 | 78,572,258 |
92f5a9b5e4711337120aeacfd3a4bd765dba68cd | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x6659b4d837bc1ed77a29891045678fd744c311954080447e33f39ee12fb5cf20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw? | Event: uel-fer-plz-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw? ... | india | 0.000056 | t20-aus-ind-2025-11-08 | Australia T20 Series: Australia vs India (Game 5) | 78,739,606 | 78,741,018 |
4374b0f60a047297d6642a1c67ad4614bc4897eb | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xacf0a55bd8d3e66e02d03de24c0a5d9e8bb64a7975f7c294b4b9d951a275eda5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw? | Event: uel-fer-plz-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw? | Event: uel-byn-pao-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | 78,739,629 | 78,739,629 |
ee8f478fb87bb4e2a75c96d452d04c427491b10a | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x6df5868da38fb2c81ef36fbd3afc3539c43c51b263e1dc8e32f245452ce8fbc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw? | Event: uel-byn-pao-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | Event: uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? | Eve... | no | 1 | aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,757,336 | 78,757,336 |
1fb7956da13136da091a8523d1ff96a4da9e6b4e | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xdb254294208fa5745768e898ffb6807ad34d56bb3aa7111f3997d3cd052a0823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | Event: uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? | Event: uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Event: uel-... | yes | 1 | aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? | 78,757,336 | 78,757,336 |
77564964212b685122231304e103a445f0aa5489 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x3e64f30db9bd9ef25a2638a7dc01644c95b65c7d89b5f84879c4744d597c4f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? | Event: uel-utr-lyo-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Event: uel-goa-fcsb-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw?... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-sbr-2025-11-08 | Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-11-08? | 78,782,977 | 78,782,977 |
f6870657df075c83577af50af90f96ad3d5e29c7 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Event: uel-goa-fcsb-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | Event: uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,782,977 | 78,782,977 |
15eb78bc5d5b3c7e1e0d29b39f0bcf40cc15c54d | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0xaa914eaa1656b3bf382e19226376f1cfb08d22b999d6d27af8785bf6d4f3ee79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | Event: uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw? | Event: uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw? | Eve... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08 | Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? | 78,782,977 | 78,782,977 |
a031042c2af5eb375f4dc7286a754b13765d3795 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x95168ebe304eb95e43cc1e92d918f7c9d066411bf38a1d2a6a5d14b56f8206ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw? | Event: uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | jap-ssp-cer-2025-11-09 | Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-11-09? | 78,793,200 | 78,793,200 |
1d92b3bb9ceba989e22636c3edc8d8f974ecffe3 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x8daa2484c355bc936cb03d2ae438bdb4d51d79a2f5e395d916e5b3b9eb3ff78b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw? | Event: uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event:... | yes | 1 | mls-sdg-por-2025-11-09 | Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-11-09? | 78,829,461 | 78,829,461 |
d8f87297d5d1afd696cb5e6e892a1e511aee1295 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x0e0a4b20cf2fc71622227b1f3fa9d34ae679d2a06f164577bded3291e75e8eb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? | Event: uel-stu-clv-2025-09-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | Event: cricket-as... | no | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Gabon win on 2025-11-13? | 78,992,872 | 78,992,872 |
5c953d9691a66f67a56d103c46631e829695fe0c | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x43944939e7b1c83671b721c4d984c883f893a024937c9b3fe615ab3e1a928e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | Event: cricket-asia-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-... | no | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16? | 79,126,884 | 79,126,884 |
9cd647922ac9a518d7ffab461a0e20f195a2d9f2 | 0x26e30f1f141d04f89630371dabe1d97b235a0b75 | 0x90891b3e465a8077806e915e75f21dd8f8971044f83cad3a0b445de4aebc5767 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup? | Event: cricket-asia-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | test-aus-eng-2025-11-21 | Will Australia win? | 79,356,491 | 79,356,491 |
f6ead0289f67f0dec8fb912d9e5769d6ec62b0b1 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x8dd5dd84edb27801d5971ba5d8960e0822e78e3dc02d15e91094453d81c29f50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?
Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | 70,563,491 | 70,563,491 |
6feef16c3e54529292b6b007625d7ebef115b244 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x6451f235c2f3859b2c31d68c1cfd5cb47b8cd23f0402a5ead1b72161dc5bb4e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint?
Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidenc... | yes | 1 | miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | 71,153,932 | 71,153,932 |
20eb6f0155645fcefe60a0bd68e8384005e309b0 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xfa0cb7655fbbdf1da66baf8c6be75f2c94a3b0f466b3ab148609cdeea31a0cec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Que... | yes | 1 | miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | 71,153,933 | 71,153,933 |
dc588701aa83ecfbd0b937895443f9f82d78b387 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x5374a4df17ebe255e6b73943b2bda7505c31538703ecdac4454dd97d5bf389e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | 71,677,208 | 71,677,208 |
8cb7762861dfd785309db2d64862675021223d07 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,701,678 | 71,701,678 |
19c87afc69d61460b909f2d4dc71021aa447557d | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xeab235a8826b431c8a859476813a0ac78230a12f33d68a5de515f05e25de9641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | italy-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | 71,701,682 | 71,701,682 |
25bf801ca396478fa5e826d13558def325ad41ad | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x74336eab988efdb341495785a1be377bbbb184cc1988b74aab33b1e51c5040cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Will Fenerbahçe Beko Istanbul win the 2025 EuroLeague? | 71,982,112 | 71,982,112 |
20862d2a23dc6e3220482b879779d329215168b8 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x4455f01ece335334ed381fd72fd31eb13a46beeb27f3c7686b76dcddacd79560 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Will Manchester United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 71,982,127 | 71,982,127 |
591bea1a5cf1443d8eda7b850c163710324ee480 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xe9cf62e08d42c1a6d5bc04ddf302d2f753bb4339202b27a6d1d5e041063673b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | 72,309,888 | 72,309,888 |
fe5db819dd17f06387b73f3993350bd12f77657f | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x75608ffe4526aa21743ad6338a78c95ea51aac51b8e2773ea5cb753e7f8413af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-norway-vs-italy | Will Norway beat Italy? | 72,548,025 | 72,548,025 |
4ef3a8a698a367f2439660c548f120455cfe9f60 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x7b5db03e7abe010a53aa5f2cfd01b82daa752f958347e1506b34ed3a724e85b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Will Bolivia beat Chile? | 72,709,446 | 72,709,446 |
fb2800fd4b12a1d8979943398cbd91215ce7f610 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xe1c0ecbe68e3d0ed5414f83845e383981dcbe5ca941aad2866a8abe2701e0cc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament | 73,115,261 | 73,115,261 |
3733c3acaf4fbd83b636f56f3c070e2db4718e82 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x4d6e93ac79d30b9239c6cd7284ca74a2aafa50af72d241f3971a9b13e0b06f2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,391,876 | 73,391,876 |
99f5f096e0d9f3014af9933427babbc9b75ba31d | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x7094b08d8bce9301c6c7f9e39830f3924ade7dbd503ede243f2d34e9d7f00b26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M? | 73,447,272 | 73,447,272 |
41fd6c4b569680afb9baa4de255a3dbb0388f1dc | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x81efe9594cc44b9bff2947a1b4cf2fbcc9e5d4b6e0a31c8288025a10445cf034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,949,663 | 73,949,663 |
70f6f9fae77f131444ed26c8b1d49f3f85192d91 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 74,069,093 | 74,069,093 |
5cedc1d06279de5c2ba9422d89b9801d6c92cf69 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xfaf1132ccba251fe3fbed92dddd2a2c28c9c7a783ce3b42ee8b7ba6135c7e9f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-kitzbuhel-winner | Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 ATP Kitzbuhel tournament? | 74,486,769 | 74,486,769 |
7e30ad844825b1db701a6a1261f994d9d7436ac8 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x399890015969b1084f6e4196416b8bc4d472f30cd65bb2e0c1a57d89d3efdddc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | 74,783,652 | 74,783,652 |
3035bdf5e110be11690ac2c4000d7025354d220e | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xfdc2235f1ab0d892865c2c2a4c204bb92bcfdcc4934c31bd244495aca22eb744 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | 75,019,890 | 75,019,890 |
952f09d67d2a82f911ba7fcaebf5beaa9647da30 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xdbf27a95201786597e21e80a1cbfdf452cf7d70e25f74b225c8b3d2e6a81a9e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | red-star-belgrade-vs-lech-poznan | Will Red Star Belgrade win on 2025-08-12? | 75,157,935 | 75,157,935 |
eac25e9887eedf1e29c5df51bfb1e5b58d858449 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xf4b3608e4c8066958a403212662dae7ea2852b46ff3e8fcc0326ed0402729df2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | 75,276,003 | 75,276,003 |
f76a67ce1a6e21c413410614c7809ae3aa206599 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xab22ed1c683b52a8401ee0ae1fc4b9e6516e7256fd067c21b0af78150de5cee6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | tennis-wta-cincinnati-winner | Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 WTA Cincinnati? | 75,392,577 | 75,392,577 |
9d43fbd9cae3a341836306e766111c1ed0576997 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x262f2c50541e33ec3840644994c078f8dc52ae17b9a39c480e47ae0028b740db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? | 75,608,987 | 75,608,987 |
6f0637eec73afe790fb41826beec954402d6928c | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x8f21940ec14e2114bdb6e912a197748712cb197a4c4cb02b7c09f8d61c3f5b78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | lal-mad-elc-2025-08-23 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? | 75,608,987 | 75,608,987 |
808fcaa9258b268b0cb70170c6343c6f46d4e533 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xb6706399e2932c2f522546ec9f14957359734c364204175dafd5fd3ab6f35bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | 75,608,987 | 75,608,987 |
0022112f969bbac19c01b04063fafb6fdeec49a4 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xf4ae9ea1c9966e06b033b5d80a74e0999d4a405074405ea2526c40acc395ee2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,608,987 | 75,608,987 |
d923b50e83a9ed9429a901329c7c75210d2c4f0e | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x94e442babe3855b19c7e8bd24f37071e9134114b26cd11d41278de9e563c9c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | ucl-paf-crv-2025-08-26 | Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-26? | 75,761,832 | 75,761,832 |
61b07bd204bdbed62e6ab0669143f7fa3e4ba86b | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xfd0a6df409cf78b0b06460e7a168130dab5305686989fad84af8c219480111f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | no | 1 | epl-ful-mun-2025-08-24 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? | 75,761,832 | 75,761,832 |
476a1c1d7843084c02e850c0a66d03802d28b227 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x1f5a9a0ba4c452ec9c4865cf2d37e8ae043f6de3540d472e5783e4a6f61a23ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-cry-2025-08-31 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31? | 75,953,684 | 75,953,684 |
63dc4cd4a22c6f3717f9da6eddd94a81dc9d3add | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x94be603ec98902bbc1a046c0653f4040c0da81235c527e6609c61f68acfb2791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-fra-2025-09-05 | Will France win on 2025-09-05? | 76,150,871 | 76,150,871 |
458a459ed4cc91c3070e9296f318e1cd0872ef33 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x7b3c964da374af9075f2171cb1f48fdf316e1d1cacac5166a5ba3d03d8a6d027 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Event: saudi-arabian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will O... | yes | 1 | uef-tur-esp-2025-09-07 | Will Spain win on 2025-09-07? | 76,255,263 | 76,255,263 |
8337d451502ea42f3ccbf143c9571cd274b4f397 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xa6810873af2eeac42bc2445db3e505d00fa738789b519da49e1f24194924c5f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Osc... | yes | 1 | 2025-eurobasket-championship-winner | Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? | 76,471,753 | 76,471,753 |
91bdec57cad18f9a9937ff4492eeddf0a8f76aa1 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: miami-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | Event: italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win ... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,551,158 | 76,551,158 |
bb2e70f5ec44764e473b6d8867e9a3530668055d | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole? | Event: italy-grand-prix-pole-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Pias... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,607,916 | 76,607,916 |
a95dc148f36092713fba64af64c0fc9374dc3c3d | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x5683a82e53f53fb58c08f8b7bbb11edc4392d12b73eefc37a765918ad9ceb83e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe... | yes | 1 | f1-azerbaijan-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | 76,749,977 | 76,749,977 |
e81afac09a80be8c0c00bab19ef8394b3dc7855e | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xdda44fdf97f9470a47df089067fe536486c656be8bbeb62747d4b51bf7f21a5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | Event: italy-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahçe Beko Istanbul win the 2025 EuroLeague? | Event: 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester Un... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-juv-2025-09-20 | Will Verona vs. Juventus end in a draw? | 76,749,977 | 76,749,977 |
8b17646db36ba339d12b4d16ce9309714cd2a331 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x9c2b40e596fb583e05c950a84fa8b6e5e90eda1366884599d1e5a180189bbdab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahçe Beko Istanbul win the 2025 EuroLeague? | Event: 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint ... | no | 1 | lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Will Alaves win on 2025-09-24? | 76,862,220 | 76,862,220 |
4ee395cde6e3212d8eb4d7d8e1f94afe179d2040 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x1fdc47a539832571ff8c7b9c089d57968641f78d57ea961fee330ad7938ba1d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Norway beat Italy? | Event: fifa-wor... | no | 1 | uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Will Nice win on 2025-09-24? | 76,880,711 | 76,880,711 |
ca2d912fa70232180073893815545fbf16b518d5 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norway beat Italy? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-norway-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qual... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,928,901 | 76,928,901 |
507d5a711c5301083b30b87c22599e63e4b32cf9 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xdb4c9be8df4f83ccfce2c59e6aa17357324a0bead6b4f154aa562c701f521192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Norway beat Italy? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-norway-vs-italy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tourn... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? | 76,978,264 | 76,978,264 |
c631bc536a7a0b1fe9a9228ba089b5e6c7be4a12 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xa4fc483ba1b023849bf46db36254563cc7f7eaf9780e13a58184fea5eb5aa157 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bolivia beat Chile? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-bolivia-vs-chile-115 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament | Event: cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 ... | no | 1 | fl1-ren-rcl-2025-09-28 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-28? | 77,033,537 | 77,033,537 |
f50555af7479ce8b22cbc235a1187e443d83f838 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x311dd02c0b58d87ad0d8ab001e010d5ef18ec1ed7363239c42ab1f5ffb7c6986 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament | Event: cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "F1" Opening We... | no | 1 | bun-dor-lei-2025-10-04 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-04? | 77,264,202 | 77,264,202 |
9164f0943da1a0563d2bccaf2427321475ece4ab | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x5e680500b942835f98aef9f008bf1c138fced3fd73000833e0b42f05122bff3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiat... | yes | 1 | bun-hof-koe-2025-10-03 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-03? | 77,264,202 | 77,264,202 |
8e4b1f4e97faccdfb71b80432c9cd5dffc123464 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x9aefeb2d5459d5bf13eb9ed80c304a4a18bd0425df71d53a4da2a3827ad89abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Of... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | 77,264,202 | 77,264,202 |
6fb8ed423882f59b14ee1a5c4b6516238fd3c8b0 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x4446f12abe3cfe4c2786207a6d2ff1fba0f13b6a4776b9fb51a2772f1bd6c3e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win... | yes | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-10-05 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-05? | 77,299,277 | 77,299,277 |
dfc39732015edfd298a6742c548a8ad15411d62c | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x7ec0c7393615e956e850656ebaff02874d1940d9b45e01b51d49623e14d043b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Event: superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 ATP Kitzbuhel tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-kitzbuhel-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | uef-sco-grc-2025-10-09 | Will Greece win on 2025-10-09? | 77,541,831 | 77,541,831 |
b6ba00e21f1fa568ce3997f8295b3935c1bc3a00 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xb165233108aefea62b9cd01992b8fe2cf0dfce1315bacc748c6fd366394c78be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 ATP Kitzbuhel tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-kitzbuhel-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Be... | yes | 1 | uef-isl-ukr-2025-10-10 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? | 77,541,831 | 77,541,831 |
37c815bee017dcaff5175c42085d669d1ae07f76 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x1a01c8d11817883ace3fc008530644cc988443e76b958afbb67bf74fb4a9239e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-hungarian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Red Sta... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-10-13? | 77,769,983 | 77,769,983 |
9d4759b025e08f18363debe98c739eb1e652436e | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x3462fd420e350db4e9799ec9ad185dababb07967489f71fd28be73d8157e9580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? | Event: tennis-atp-toronto-winner-477 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Star Belgrade win on 2025-08-12? | Event: red-star-belgrade-vs-lech-poznan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-... | no | 1 | uef-est-mol-2025-10-14 | Will Moldova win on 2025-10-14? | 77,769,983 | 77,769,983 |
d874d174782e7226a87fed0453c44150a0ade99b | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Star Belgrade win on 2025-08-12? | Event: red-star-belgrade-vs-lech-poznan | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 WTA Cincinnati? | Event:... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | 77,769,983 | 77,769,983 |
871eab753d439ee62fce7f52cda41f25491fc116 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xe21887af62c2297c869cbf3d3a5e1ede151e599d91d58f80bde8bc86e88613ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? | Event: epl-liv-bou-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 WTA Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-wta-cincinnati-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-mac-to... | yes | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12? | 77,769,983 | 77,769,983 |
fde463137ed3ae1d675da0dc95fd6ad46633fa46 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xfa8c1026283d299695f0bd17334b0da2074da156f008fef3089c535033b372a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 WTA Cincinnati? | Event: tennis-wta-cincinnati-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-... | no | 1 | elc-mid-ips-2025-10-17 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-10-17? | 77,840,286 | 77,840,286 |
83d5c99b0676a1788c928b1de67eac3fbbeb419d | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0xa1adc098f0fcddbcad3050aecb21dbe4986f04222310bf08ac00b7b2b8dab7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-mad-elc-2025-08-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-0... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,925,715 | 77,925,715 |
c93f9e95e24c6bb048c11a10e88fdeaae98a5e7e | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x3f5d83005852c283cfed78ae3e452ffb2663711b2e28ce86890fa29cca61a218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? | Event: lal-mad-elc-2025-08-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament... | no | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | 77,968,683 | 77,968,683 |
b761531281e7bcf5d862449b0584fe8fd6ddbf36 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x171993ebdc52304a3eed37d6664a5589f9a46471335c5d26f7e829782ecafa78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-2... | no | 1 | ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,108,055 | 78,108,055 |
2d4b62c7f1299047f86606032aab261abf6edfb9 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x0c273df0b320b6526d6f6225273cfb914fac26f2ca9804b7443b957a94cde26b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-paf-crv-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-0... | no | 1 | sea-nap-int-2025-10-25 | Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? | 78,235,911 | 78,235,911 |
4943f2521e893db99c2ed540c6d2e2ff24e3d5b5 | 0x270205f8d07e2754c7b7b0db3130cda3ae520495 | 0x7a510f2d34ec72f8d5fa9e08eb269c085c8afc353493b0680778931fbd7e2245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-paf-crv-2025-08-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-ful-mun-2025-08-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-ast-cr... | yes | 1 | mexican-grand-prix-winner-538 | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | 78,235,911 | 78,235,911 |
7c6e2e8641619f17f64ff2fb17f5c21b94e33f8e | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xba2dfb6326cd314161d00de46a09ee38528603e9a872e17c166cede77356c290 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29?
Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | 64,910,928 | 64,910,928 |
ec3361bebb477821e2972426b15ae07299c1b999 | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xfafebf74590538c2a145609240bbba810d491b742cb02a816b38ef5f6c9eec1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15?
Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...,... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | 65,528,357 | 65,528,357 |
ee250432db53a91d67b23aa0c7e292d4a60f69e2 | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0x59d6aa392a4d929b332d82afb6aadeb6a62db1b161056683b118a41dda254126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw?
Event: e... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 65,573,564 | 65,573,564 |
c0e5a0c65ccada399e0c44079f91996edd6d4448 | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0x71aafc1bf4b475a828b2f1fe0ee370bd6f96cf2ffc35c772e16434d3dd3e926f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-julio-cesar-chavez-jr | Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win his boxing match against? | 73,367,828 | 73,367,828 |
7114a9796fe5af3cc090c3b9c187ee562da5ff0e | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? | 76,825,453 | 76,825,453 |
2e1bcc58686dbc3066462a7f255e1e862d1a3b22 | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,906,032 | 76,906,032 |
60102fb9cc64617e32443b959e9777d73837299c | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xdb4c9be8df4f83ccfce2c59e6aa17357324a0bead6b4f154aa562c701f521192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? | 76,947,057 | 76,947,057 |
03f33601bceacfa87900854a33402a6d5535fcaf | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0x563b1fbfc5d76f4041ac344f49ae66579b000f94ef28b1377a4249182d6342ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | no | 1 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? | 77,107,806 | 77,107,806 |
252754312a25c8b7162577dfacb8980aeedea46f | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0xcb7fbb98b81d8982e13677f79061bd8452d96c8c18d4511bfc2cc37f340e4bd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | no | 1 | sea-fio-rom-2025-10-05 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,219 | 77,300,219 |
27310bcc5d3b57d7f95f1cb61da6a0f27dada1a7 | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0x4860a6cdb643650b3f2571cc592236093775a6c116b1e1d9864c250f0678085d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | no | 1 | bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | 77,754,578 | 77,754,578 |
22fb427c5ddf7ca6b5f7fea84677649c3c420ccb | 0x270caa4dc6983ebf1018f9d6a989747122f6f377 | 0x76af856ef93257a5c99087318503ac2082311338618e9a4054144d4106b4ca81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-... | no | 1 | bra-rec-csc-2025-10-15 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-15? | 77,754,578 | 77,754,578 |
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