sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6393bf64d37d726889b488a043ad735fdcac422f | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x06d2dd93b37ce093e28b15c0e012b9c3c180a24e7cb9c7680b0f909013a21488 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2025-09-09? | Event: cof-jam-tri-2025-09-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September 24? | 76,848,790 | 76,848,790 |
752a7431cef3a7db6aad6533527b707461ce6686 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x9c8f4eee01f92a7150b57830c74d063c78cf07b784ba509eafbaa108c1e58fed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | Event: august-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | sud-cam-bol-2025-09-24 | Will Club Bolívar win on 2025-09-24? | 76,868,920 | 76,868,920 |
d473931f0f54c7821910bf76033788bb1705c73b | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xba6bf89be6820d5ae225d913a69a4ce494725083922f52cfa55285ba33ffef5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-o... | no | 1 | mex-caz-que-2025-09-24 | Will Querétaro FC win on 2025-09-24? | 76,873,996 | 76,873,996 |
33ca63fc9cc21be6ec58e2809f0e98a9a1af5d5c | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xa3b20bf032487c99dfcbe9e61f6d28c261b7d0ea3ee33ac3beee24cf217aa3e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-se... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 24? | 76,879,073 | 76,879,073 |
2c284bc49cc29869231d5717d0dbdcbc78d30809 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x63871e5d1539b0d16b85007d1aad4fb9adf46211ea9cd5fc5c912cd08348b887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on September 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August? | Event: august-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-25? | 76,909,077 | 76,909,077 |
63c28d5b06afd0270a86f74d7e5f2c424dfdf781 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xfb9f3c7cf4297da46ef14b1ee306ba96816ec13ad22f37b93b6c7eab972c8764 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August? | Event: august-inflation-monthly | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: ere-aja-zwo-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-b... | no | 1 | lib-sao-lqu-2025-09-25 | Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-09-25? | 76,909,079 | 76,909,079 |
8a7698d254a75b69e93518eb66d04d685e748ab8 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x252d57cb7cf729013088f0633f1975dc8c31eb02e3a333a5e5cf9279a64ab391 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-09-13? | Event: ere-aja-zwo-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-09-13? | Event: tur-eyu-gal-2025-09-13 |... | no | 1 | ere-aja-nac-2025-09-27 | Will NAC Breda win on 2025-09-27? | 77,113,469 | 77,113,469 |
afa8bf6b69a70093f870dcf38000fd93fe589554 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x41cc434590af62f435d8e0b8d2d53a0ea5c2f96cdbc1f828c28cafc49b557cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | Event: bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-09-13? | Event: tur-eyu-gal-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 |... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? | 77,113,469 | 77,113,469 |
7718a6fda10f8130f04159e2392145d57f36b0e5 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xd9ebd76b6957db2079ecc7d30ab072389e3814e31289f86e185cb8e8367b650e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eyüpspor win on 2025-09-13? | Event: tur-eyu-gal-2025-09-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice... | no | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Bayern München vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw? | 77,113,469 | 77,113,469 |
6694b932956e1a613a7bc03a55ba77fc195f6fa0 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xdf86e2f1d35b0552e5c93ee0ab0bff9d538c8855abe2ce14a930bde08ab67fc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | Event: epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Serie... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 77,113,469 | 77,113,469 |
674b36d7a1e6fefbb798b085f950269650e2eb98 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0xe179272c73323cd304beb50df57c42f59266f7f69c53399c8fe484df33a25ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14? | Event: lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series? | Event: emmys-lead-actor-in-a-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-2... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 77,113,469 | 77,113,469 |
2e9e06b03f8836773d18d8cc2d5b331cdfbd15fd | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x3c7e58f3a32df7abe6cc447ed2c574b8dc59e884d9449a33b280805407aefc30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series? | Event: emmys-lead-actor-in-a-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Cho... | no | 1 | uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Will Netherlands vs. Finland end in a draw? | 77,599,966 | 77,599,966 |
431f9888597d99449312cdf42350c972163cbef3 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x426e037edbda86ea269fe9ef14d0b16d03b8ff7bca2f08db4849d40bcd424cc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-9-september-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | uef-sco-bel1-2025-10-12 | Will Scotland vs. Belarus end in a draw? | 77,599,969 | 77,599,969 |
5237b1e226f90c18b5d74f46bf23e21ba1ca6061 | 0x3cc7994a0bede8728ea8dd66c9835b7663fe10e6 | 0x1c36d1ddb38291252a0109ac487f6b841b67e40458a0072549b29a14783faae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | arg-riv-cas-2025-10-12 | Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12? | 77,616,166 | 77,616,166 |
039de70f37c90d5fbfb444c7aca1f779154670b3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x33ad8fe940ad79febf41181020a5bbfee9ffb632b28f6412035798fb4fe00198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February?
Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | 54,422,706 | 54,422,706 |
2e1dae9f37875028a4d2cf6f2a6f16e626980b6c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x4f0cad7e5504080b120caed8b52c8f5ba113f68fd5c27b060f126b5f0ee73500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February?
Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | 54,422,706 | 54,422,706 |
310e219ec5b236ebf2499622a6452f0394f01f6f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x8cc1eabe78fd1bb60fc7b324f25b67351145be8b6413595592afdde15aa6ae35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will US gain more than 353... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? | 54,422,706 | 54,422,706 |
86bbfd653ac87d9029a07bdd3e5b4a6ea9b45247 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb0ced8080b1831d2eecf7bc4c175275a1c7c4c5a415d77c7b9613e4b76564401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | 54,422,706 | 54,422,706 |
05521f77f73f94378ca380f77706a582bb262e0c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xd449a3ec46769ad33bd1154d97dc7d6bba2709e36189da608510de01e68a0a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | 54,422,706 | 54,422,706 |
efba03de0fc240d21af509acc0a3d66e543570b9 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x3c9d8b8e50e69c48a1882f259db6c492662ce45fd4c019da1abb8ebe3f6cf8e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 0.000088 | will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-mar-9 | US government shutdown by Mar 9? | 54,456,833 | 54,459,753 |
8be7c509ef3feefb80205045456e3d7fa3ae0bc7 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x21f48b239635e284736beb1f1b2a8d14f1e73b20b3bf7aba171c97e66ec749c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-best-costume-design | Will Killers of the Flower Moon win the Oscar for Best Costume Design? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
d84a1c7f927e2e575477810ce0a7e0dcca920a0b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x3512dd217d54d7ada92e767729cae2a80ebd8a0b66889eb27820b7875deca97c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
a84c6c4d854fb8d4c1c1c4af1b1a9d7dd2f18f7f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x40d59bbfbd74a384ba16fa34703b60f47cf731a57e379d01fba3e35ed6479dbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
71e3eff621319c161138f316140161726c9961c4 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x7c186f72ed924fc492dd2ad8a7066c020315931a8ddd775e4a36ee3351014688 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-actress | Will Sandra Hüller win the Oscar for Best Actress? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
6fcaf3358278ccb7485f8a30a3119bae501efce8 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x91e45b71141823321887e582c1de53036629050b82204582d91ca0c33c581ad4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
6b53faca1149e8cbf4cf6fc642c21beaf5e05e15 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa33b178ddf2a5d302853fbebf44a6b675aa7a4ef544a27f17bc9cad6f68f03a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-best-original-song | Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
e8c9b2b047fbe1d6444cb6658fac96f167346f61 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb43b47e2a417a605a58e964b8eb28b160171635c122afc270c645b44d8760794 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-supporting-actor | Will Mark Ruffalo win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
deeee79a3d497eca1ce3a76b21737e53fd92d666 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb4a7333a23325937904f271aff2dd3c8c5f32d562cce3bfcf68ace986ee4c081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-actor | Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
e2bc0579fb2b3b2f4c82d1bd5fa56746a515055f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xef3771c980c235b274fb8876c9f2cac273a63f404469fbed32193943d882b590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | 54,526,194 | 54,526,194 |
34a1f1c9e311cbc35e6b2b743ab7cd375a501aab | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc7608dbe6b9847cb4f09d70d96503f5d20afc0db100ce050a2d0458d7ea6e655 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | will-biden-win-mississippi-democratic-primary | Will Biden win Mississippi Democratic Primary? | 54,604,912 | 54,604,912 |
b2d23fbd1dbdcad68d509d750843707780fd5876 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x096f4013e59798987c5a283d6d4571fd879d8ef5987b759bc05c45ada9c791dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 0 | eth-above-4000-next-friday | ETH above $4,000 next Friday? | 54,646,633 | 54,709,048 |
985ed21ebe30ce9c8b9c0acb8895c3360ae8e61e | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc8d7e7aab1c016645a21786b5d77f68f1d4c49d65e10159fe8738630c44c7f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 55,318,508 | 55,318,508 |
617127053caa783092b603f76736e1a992a1eda9 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 55,332,352 | 55,332,352 |
ef18ce023787d2bcd17b9eba4eb78d38f32a279d | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf487c51d6055058f23e50c67ee7fb80dde2b2bd5959a2fe81e1d4ed309d03e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 55,432,485 | 55,432,516 |
714752d81f533accb399d653f3f454bbe3de53a4 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xab95baabf0ebe51e5939b39db6fc78293ff88ba292196391a9e7cfc3f2a7db0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | djt-market-cap-on-april-5 | $DJT market cap less than $8b on April 5? | 55,528,117 | 55,528,117 |
63052c57f249a3ae5c56a38766b9bcc87c198a06 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa020846ab8e422a0b23f79d6cbcf4e6db00971c2a2ac5349e024c0a41566a700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-may-2024 | Fed raises interest rates by 25+ bps after 2024 May meeting? | 55,563,841 | 55,563,841 |
75ab63feb342f101d54b0ef45139f8712c0ffd97 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x596ae4d1cdda3ed568e79ec521a220dbfd208e183a53e651a8d818b0143be900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | 55,563,973 | 55,563,973 |
cdc890f01446ec844e6e9a76fee037147da8219f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xdd33dc8589db515ee64e319540e34d3684540511efa4ae5a1211075b14eb0400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | 55,564,018 | 55,564,018 |
a7d6c9769e7bf58c0c62d05a1f412d483add3735 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x51dffab9d71e1aa78f0dbed55cb38da2a22a7ba4b73a296ee7535548ff34a727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Will Borussia Dortmund vs Atlético Madrid be a draw? | 55,920,080 | 55,920,080 |
2c067a90623a4eaabd8511a9ba5e034d1b949a00 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x7f782232f39cbd1b12fb3cc92be4ba840845ff298734390ddbf27eb44bfc5a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,920,080 | 55,920,080 |
16db9762391d30d6799ac9101e902a83505b5e90 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa783e191443f72327131c5188240e6d7640b3fe8b654cebc9a9ccb56a83e77e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Barcelona win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,920,080 | 55,920,080 |
60b1e064e71b7f705df735128b8a3e4979c6ec64 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xdb0aa31f85c555b3411a0fafb6ff290c55a037f29a6245b6436c692e7dda7173 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Will Atletico Madrid win? | 55,920,080 | 55,920,080 |
c0ef55f1104700f9dad5fe2af936f1ea7be40ed6 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x6b6da4b7d3c888f8a61eb0eab287f1977391dccabdb037ae9945b5892547a13f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | no | 0.205968 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Arsenal win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,960,881 | 55,960,881 |
77034efe4949f781b685036c2f187305b70848f6 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x503f559d3411b26fd64a3b8a35f8dbf083e2adbc3d63a27470524c779393dc4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
5031716d7d082c1a20e872883a455eb480858c95 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x5e3c5c8da8b1b3e8b316fc7387fb1ac3e19a01ebed00272be9e4577e19ab750a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in Feb... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
a6634e082457f9f8f1fa7be8c3c857d89d63e9fd | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x7665e3f761b19aa19daa59c8e5123efc72d98691fd55b9560b5be63f5d530734 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain less than 200k jobs i... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
9235597efd44e9721466693906d2bb43598d9e7e | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x87638b04ab5030809c65e22a546571019ea86429e5dc3755a01f2f7ea701fafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain more than 353k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs i... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
588ed8524051c189b51bab7c153a47d9db7fbf88 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc3a05fb5d7192d9879e1e6cc06e4a655601b6c4d697d6863b8a1a634c0f8d5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: US government shutdown by Mar 9? |... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
8d6acbfaf59968533cc0b6ba01afa7b659261eff | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe03c20808c6fee773f66648a74371ab8fb28eb3833f112e1960090a510222e80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US government shutdown by Mar 9? | Event: will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-mar-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.777229534791436e-05
3. Question: Will Killers o... | yes | 1 | safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Will the $SAFE market cap be between $4-5b one week after launch? | 56,463,714 | 56,463,714 |
b924af5ac71dd0b81933cbce1a881084b3deb3ce | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x8a554b657135b4e8e800c836cc938041fa5f2787ce6f05357197bc0514713096 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US government shutdown by Mar 9? | Event: will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-mar-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.777229534791436e-05
2. Question: Will Killers of the Flower Moon win the Oscar for Best Costume Design? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will LA Clippers be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 56,565,030 | 56,565,030 |
545bbc2243b982ffded9ecf50dbea35ca35959fd | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe78ffd8d3aa9fbe74d35e1289b52b5ddf8add75f8ce2e69a3b4954e81229b700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Killers of the Flower Moon win the Oscar for Best Costume Design? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | 56,623,134 | 56,623,134 |
550fed3ac58c64569dcc58e777a75387755d988a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x89e4eb18ab07e56993130a16aa6d2746368d309b5011fcbced0c2b553edd5736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-adapted-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | Event: oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | psg-vs-borussia-dortmund-ucl-semis-2nd-leg | Will Borussia Dortmund win? | 56,703,073 | 56,703,073 |
f0b16ae9c42aa996c77348cbf38ed17fbb3a8c9b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa89c7df5490e3bddf189fac6ad47b16aa249ee008eeb24099e6c0e7d58d39df1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | Event: oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sandra Hüller win the Oscar for Best Actress? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp | Will Luka Doncic win the 2023-24 NBA MVP? | 56,755,191 | 56,755,191 |
a4eb23df8462066f17427bb7f543ecaeef0ac17f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xfa5d43be36255764600be8bf2a29f288e6c8963c121df8400ddfe6bcbc744700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sandra Hüller win the Oscar for Best Actress? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I'm Ju... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 56,815,224 | 60,362,838 |
9b546a5778eb58617cb25a8bf86bfa21d19e9054 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x98bf5d523aac9d9f3886f429f1ee0ed48b28a1b7101caebbf5a80d0fe8e26ca8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | Event: oscars-best-original-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | eurovision-winner | Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | 56,875,609 | 56,875,609 |
99f62080a14d24ac09624939a45c697ef6c21924 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x5b82bdec8cf9f7f215c13d2e436224e761c8c081263ef8ea224179f5e943caf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | Event: oscars-best-original-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Ruffalo win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor? | Event: oscars-2024-best-supporting-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paul Gi... | yes | 1 | djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | $DJT market cap $7b-$8b on May 15? | 57,032,221 | 57,032,221 |
9e1a626130dc5f95e332792a612441fea1986a79 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x81f0d7860ed5d6dd452df5c3534fb6d8e04a5680b0944e5a181c9ac1e4a151e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Ruffalo win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor? | Event: oscars-2024-best-supporting-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anatomy of a Fall... | no | 1 | djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | $DJT market cap $6b-$7b on May 15? | 57,032,221 | 57,032,221 |
397101df5498562e88f2559b75eb6dd1b1e92863 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe6b5072010365efe4865c58b8ed1d0297d44021a9cfb0959302b5b0fc6d9bf0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Biden ... | no | 1 | premier-league-top-scorer | Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | 57,159,895 | 57,159,895 |
2683c3be785fa8db0ca4d075042bb512ac8843eb | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x07534bc8869ae2ea1971cdb06e83229d4c9a28e1c576fcdb398f4d3f8080c3e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay? | Event: oscars-2024-best-original-screenplay | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden win Mississippi Democratic Primary? | Event: will-biden-win-mississippi-democratic-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | eu-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Will the EPP win the most seats in European Parliament? | 58,225,517 | 58,225,517 |
925c7dd118cd919cb3573810afdbc6fb860bb9b2 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x849753c23a361b9c8696072789fb39bb8fa526ffcbab52f7c439f43dee54b1bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden win Mississippi Democratic Primary? | Event: will-biden-win-mississippi-democratic-primary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: ETH above $4,000 next Friday? | Event: eth-above-4000-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Preside... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 58,301,324 | 58,301,324 |
a098a2c125d945b28307fe52f19aa45fa3c5e339 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x430fd0b3a028045d02d8f1ffde1de9d5cbf7540cbcfee3fe75683e189e7d5422 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: ETH above $4,000 next Friday? | Event: eth-above-4000-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presid... | no | 1 | will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-june | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? | 58,817,909 | 58,817,909 |
af58a1f83bdda78174cbefbc61a76829b53c06fd | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa964f2865c241ddf0f15ada5656b2b6858daf2fdc0a54c530e269c56e375d200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 59,537,848 | 59,664,801 |
edb64f9228f453b2b325d1db6afcc34b69c3d44a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xcb0e27fbf742edf8e65985c5efbba6e803f3efdea25d2166a2ba3180f9d5002e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: $DJT... | no | 1 | 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Will China win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | 59,893,249 | 59,893,249 |
a711f2e3bed8468839c5237ca44b0d5ae1687d65 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb4e889cdee05ad1ac2dc3e64b7f861fe6040436b455ba0f8f776b52e62635634 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | Event: pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: $DJT market cap less than $8b on April 5? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-april-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed raises interest rates ... | yes | 1 | 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | 59,950,373 | 59,950,373 |
c004de73901ede862e7f136415b1b7211716d43a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe9c3a5b9c5207021b951bc263971559c4c19d5d6cf7ad25131133362e31a1461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $DJT market cap less than $8b on April 5? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-april-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed raises interest rates by 25+ bps after 2024 May meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-may-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Aaron Taylor-Johnson announce... | no | 1 | 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | 59,972,639 | 59,972,639 |
06c7110de8445196b7e3d9763371a766e3fca0a9 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed raises interest rates by 25+ bps after 2024 May meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-may-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | Event: next-james-bond-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyson Fury beat Olek... | no | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,066,810 | 60,067,056 |
4e9ecd2b37a5ef5cb1a3af645c4ec5aeeb663b5b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x411a946e7ed2f25ab6fa595182110479f9264e68584eeb0a6608a7bfe89c3a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | Event: next-james-bond-actor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | Event: tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortm... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 60,069,367 | 62,502,022 |
8d9f44873eb4a6ad5b2a1384ea774fb4ac9b3534 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x12a4d7eb4ae4208d02c4cb774549eb8b9c7228beb0152ed70c051630ab23ce13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? | Event: tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs Atlético Madrid be a draw? | Event: champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | 60,091,889 | 60,091,889 |
9a8e1e20bb3f1d482f45c6ed0fce0bcd4d2f5b4f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x30a014002b1cfb52df2af479bb82fb5f9cb4a8f7fefc113f3af3d19c8703a669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund vs Atlético Madrid be a draw? | Event: champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | 50m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Florent Manaudou (FRA) win Gold in Men's 50m Freestyle? | 60,132,433 | 60,132,433 |
3e4aa9c3221012fc8deb706632a3270a04425118 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x653483009043f1663360bc35ed8fb542d3f9453916082d20ff025adaa2fe7032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win?... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,262,394 | 60,262,394 |
a0343681d6c06a41abce539ad4d638ac4d976404 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xea236b37f6ba053c48240dafea9b4b745ce43aebd44d8911df35302d1ac951a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win? | Event: champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win the 2023-24 ... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,262,394 | 60,262,394 |
2a4cf3892a2320194c390d4a0becd9631bfebbb2 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xae4735f6e896b3fb25faf0ee7bbc548f11908161c1640bd6fa82179b4ff8c6de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win? | Event: champions-league-dortmund-vs-atletico-madrid-4162024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20596831256729733
3. Question: Will the $SAFE ... | no | 1 | 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | 60,361,972 | 60,361,972 |
3833f2bf4b2c21a1d30b07807895b069fd42d775 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x2a255aa37f2629a1e7444caa6e28877fd983b2db26ac203ecd84af990465277e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win the 2023-24 Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20596831256729733
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | marathon-m-winner | Will Abdi Nageeye (NED) win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | 60,422,845 | 60,422,845 |
55131ad644beb43ed5a9d0efedeba964a4ef2912 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x71aa57b9697cf7b97d7b2f9a66f9d34c654881c80f7afa714314b9da6015654e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $1-2b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | marathon-m-winner | Will another athelete win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | 60,443,328 | 60,443,328 |
48cc7fbc54d62a440748867a365fd8074bdc07ef | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x77910deb8013f42d7946050fe1640277e9fe87d6e25ac44efd971c1601c90b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | marathon-w-winner | Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | 60,452,456 | 60,452,478 |
85047c9e99017b0f6d7fd5252dd6f3f801566f61 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xd59fb10aaa131ec9937a1d4af679b4c85dfcb9fb206dd0c839bb07f6c6cd8fd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: y... | no | 1 | marathon-w-winner | Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | 60,459,620 | 60,459,620 |
e115b8b1e5817f18b7eb967cd68d9f134bf89b7b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be greater than $5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,482,274 | 60,482,274 |
e0bc83a8ec203b784396dd39be057b8fdd570b02 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb82873dcd25879dda82196711e0a3aed998605b88e701c5f6b95cd894e9836bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be less than $1b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $4-5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 60,482,274 | 60,482,274 |
eebf2330a94d8e523c9dcdd6719603899def6814 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x884385a47d5b9a7b5078e66d391d9409d1f9ccf87868d0ae896dae8fce7407d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the $SAFE market cap be between $4-5b one week after launch? | Event: safe-market-cap-fdv-one-week-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LA Clippers be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine w... | no | 1 | ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | 62,574,534 | 62,574,534 |
b0a8c63e54fd6c88698422b8bac54001e139b29d | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xcd1b6b71a1964f15e2c14809594cbfa0d576270e8ef94c8c24913121097e09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LA Clippers be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win? | Event: psg-vs-borussia-dortmund-ucl-semis... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,189,543 | 64,189,543 |
47efff0c535af820fc56644405ea4695494e003c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xbc425549dfa96c89beefa96229584077863ecb1f29ef56f7249e378795a34500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win? | Event: psg-vs-borussia-dortmund-ucl-semis-2nd-leg | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luka Doncic win the 2023-24 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp | Cho... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | 64,605,780 | 64,605,780 |
758b822ee3e023280a32f3cf3e5c1d125d2dd2cc | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc951ae7c7cbb135bea112091e4430b9cb6e52c54438730bc0144aa3a9e4ec7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win? | Event: psg-vs-borussia-dortmund-ucl-semis-2nd-leg | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luka Doncic win the 2023-24 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E... | no | 0.668002 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 64,932,172 | 65,068,666 |
0155eb3e183c518bdf6887fec292c231e970b2ed | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe858d12a329a9a1f0a5f568bf00d7b537af8a943bdd57ff718fc312997e03912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luka Doncic win the 2023-24 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win ... | yes | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in November? | 64,970,528 | 64,970,528 |
afdc48805fb7a42aa3ae4dc60b56286dbef76238 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x2a655d05d82bbe2424f0f4df3446a7962542d67fbc98cf6adef37fffc1fcf557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: $DJT market cap ... | no | 1 | qatar-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix? | 64,991,829 | 64,991,829 |
7fd055f200b1eb08329fac77f9302af75f0f7abd | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x74739a425dc26565ff1065f72f13afccde89086e7016589ebf970571f0607978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: $DJT market cap $7b-$8b on May 15? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: $DJT market cap $6b-$7b on May 15? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | C... | yes | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,068,666 | 65,068,666 |
f4485c28724fcca53a855e2ef7e31a78b7632538 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x87249ba3fc6a660bfcd6165b941fa7b3dc96924e04b2e59a00be69c9866c43f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $DJT market cap $7b-$8b on May 15? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: $DJT market cap $6b-$7b on May 15? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Event:... | yes | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,068,666 | 65,068,666 |
d6aa867e992a34928e4fb34d4883cd2c74dc3aa8 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xbe751328d9bb0bcb36e92b4cd97aae70976cead638beb75cb24759954e71d906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $DJT market cap $6b-$7b on May 15? | Event: djt-market-cap-on-may-15-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Event: premier-league-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the EPP win the most seats in European P... | yes | 1 | 2024-irish-general-election | Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | 65,068,666 | 65,068,666 |
487897c85be90ef54986d8b59d8c03d9575651fc | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x06cd6db02aabdce7b252060e49a1a9626028e06784f25e7e4bf00603f394f500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | Event: premier-league-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the EPP win the most seats in European Parliament? | Event: eu-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? | 65,189,248 | 65,190,335 |
1e038eecb5d32ca99d40c86a37dd4a4274d44f54 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x242cae40e31fe67f49a98530c0d7ef59e9c7705caa47039128f0a35871912223 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the EPP win the most seats in European Parliament? | Event: eu-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US confir... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
6880b69de70271d722bcbef3430148296786ddcb | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x3189e493d87b09525eced3aaae9bb48a9460cef9aa7e6b1c4ed3c4c2df8ffe6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? | Event: will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 D... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
2c5f59f7e4c9f9a18ceea2ce2a6993b251219cda | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xaf26a1f6b41e1642b3422d3134e536cbcebd99f4cd989c2722f56ab22449b77f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? | Event: will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will C... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
fc8a1cd6f13c60e3984105b4492ae0ee49c912f5 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc0b0c6d7795453a6c2da700496583354384f012b79c53e98bc2d7fa91586348e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will China win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
cd576a4536eb49cf0c2d81aea2acc20adedb824a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc84c3451df32872d1167afe34c2406a6161bad495ec4732b37aee87074b9d06a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will China win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay? | Event: 4x100m-freestyle-relay-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
8d4cab0aa221c4b13a9c47113a50a7d16a792612 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf873b562a57f806b34aa30ecbcf37d61462bbf819e5fa5f2a04fe202bc1bca77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 1 | november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | 65,330,256 | 65,330,256 |
5d62c8a5401f72368f5a6e26df948d65a68c5b0e | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x00fe2219f57e3dfc0c2d923cebf01b03ae4c0e7ffaf60c52b96269ea8c94e635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win t... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,400,355 | 65,400,355 |
edbc095bd0321d07de7309c674f2aa20f90d17ce | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x49df40debf3655c8f0892f5b144da6d513a1998380f5218146f7dbc51014f9db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Event: democratic-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Simone Biles ... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,432,391 | 65,432,391 |
4c8a5edc7c8345c2592d17bf33f816728f0a8147 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x9b676d23387bb38b6265fdc0a3756631bf78d729867d32dd55acb9b1049d4e64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: no ... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,432,391 | 65,432,391 |
be3b3667a50d8d32cbcf48a1ad67d062245cf81a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb0c8ce59d533d5733ec0f8fe3122609e01b39470eb81fa9bb4e19ec461326f33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Individual All-Around Gymnastics? | Event: individual-all-around-gymnastics-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Florent Manaudou (FRA) win Gold in Men's 50m Freestyle? | Event: 50m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | >50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,432,391 | 65,432,391 |
8a2ba20cc14c0dbfd2131e12ec2b9ece8757d109 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xdf9cf0fc9613af282e46d6474822ee56ad61b7031f28de7b8fec06e3e6235997 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Florent Manaudou (FRA) win Gold in Men's 50m Freestyle? | Event: 50m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | 26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,432,391 | 65,432,391 |
c7becc04dc63a1b7a33a37c76890f1477fb1c2d3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x9f8581f3bd79a6742d1c0643a82d736e10dea54b4af5efe78e54154baba02100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | world-dart-championship | Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | 65,488,035 | 65,488,208 |
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