sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02548eb9929a91fbe9696bbcb3fe60c3338edc7b | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x54023e8b49c03fec0ea502acc1fd255edc292c2bf987c6259d95f0021c5d97e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump announce run for 3rd term? | Event: trump-announce-run-for-3rd-term | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24864754387456298
2. Question: Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice:... | yes | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | 73,972,467 | 73,972,467 |
b48176351528b5e2c0ec73a7f334bee10ddf0a71 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x8c104fa7d363fcee6f3eb016ba1842905f0bdbeded6d790390bf4307bf4fb142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | Event: openai-becomes-a-for-profit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | superman-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | 73,972,467 | 73,972,467 |
f862ddbccab1d204462426191a1fd488125e4343 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x07a49f044960fb16a4bb3ef0fb97ea3427092f4f860f6fbff74b829af7d64aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | Event: openai-becomes-a-for-profit-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | ... | yes | 1 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-july-15 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | 74,020,789 | 74,020,789 |
ecc1e64dc545d309e194f8e7996a386a39054104 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xb2fc36d5f9bd808e7e1c65b21da9f69cb112541d3b403034f66b0004e38172ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choi... | no | 0.001574 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-august-31 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | 74,358,243 | 74,358,243 |
b5a3ddda809d412fc7eb7390a13cdedae7e0b960 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x35bc1bf05846a2d4a72ff03f1c93b8f41ec6a45241a2292ddbb2c919dd7a68f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Event: next-chancellor-of-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest... | no | 0.169422 | thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-friday | Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? | 74,441,552 | 74,441,607 |
48349201667419153b2faa33b029cbb58391ece9 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x41970bc27edc1f581d25697e51804275c72ea2dd8f8f3cef110a7762ad607776 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Pakistan air/miss... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? | 74,567,606 | 74,579,149 |
675145ffd4fa6bfe0f746c894bc3343a58cd6693 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x0e5219af7f980cbd6fd8d4fd4233bfead6f2c0cc8aedfa95b0fdf9268ec4acd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august | Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? | 74,651,149 | 74,653,828 |
f4e925ab524579f4dda7656bbe86368279a046e3 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xff978244225c5ae27bd68ae7f03a40bea88581f5f119fcbce5eed17ee858908b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil in May? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-in-may | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 0.076598 | us-china-tariff-agreement-before-90-day-deadline | US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? | 74,651,425 | 75,102,650 |
dc3b7f3980c26b671f6f94f49a861529e679fb22 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x43a0e99dec7bb0c6ae5a9166cf6df932a36ca721eb62f673eda5ea87232bc8f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil in May? | Event: pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-in-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? | Event: will-fartcoin-be-listed-on-hyperliquid-before-may-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | 74,657,564 | 74,657,564 |
985c8e27b17d12c058522c6b9945fcab5406fd59 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x27fa3741337f72bb571945794b5e0a2326d8830d324a3608a0cb994005f9f0ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? | Event: will-fartcoin-be-listed-on-hyperliquid-before-may-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 4.159278882723132e-07
2. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | who-will-trump-meet-with-in-august | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? | 75,044,154 | 75,044,154 |
9c9cd1b53ef5283c53894b511bbf1f3880d2cd79 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xf7a7e9aad9db341e60a4df9f0ef7392fa4c66ddf7c3459d34669196589a0c17e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.2803316940819877e-06
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | barboza | 0 | ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev | UFC 319: Barboza vs. Klose | 75,147,434 | 75,147,434 |
dfbf9539db9fbcc1ad687c0b24e4d001a3981688 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x5f1b7eb4573875d73fa68974c4477550427745bc8aa0270ee71022a7723121e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on May 31? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 0 | will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-august-31 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? | 75,305,782 | 75,910,352 |
257ac3e111646fa4ffb5199fd78fdca78392eb08 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x91eb615013098c0480e1ade0bf538d2c08312b03f76e19da7f5a0d7d61c7a100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 78,367,469 | 78,367,469 |
ed7904fd6154934d02c04374f5c4c961164fa2f9 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xfa373b4d1b1683cf523bac7a3fb5b4b9e9107d441f6ad1c735f1d166bb5f1c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31
Predict the user's choic... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | 78,367,653 | 78,367,653 |
3011ff5684cb70044a560f540417d10304ea7aee | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xebf63b8b71b82dc12a66651447341680ed922dd3bcdb7e2158d8d81109fa221c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Targ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 2? | 78,490,806 | 78,490,806 |
56eed79e84dd8bd6cbe15510ab25f9c458f6fa16 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x2ec49ce4eb761e5ec0274135739d46de9c4c650eb2d59534463c22750a9ee98a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 2? | 78,538,809 | 78,538,809 |
547a844201bee9b131fe5e83b98e0241f32b1557 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xa89a2fc48810aef79fc922eec78b17eef435587564a979ca0ef6ae654cd60dc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 2? | 78,538,809 | 78,538,809 |
b829e6df6dbe539bb39efab11ac233a23c8a7789 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xb1ae70abd92cc5772cc8d3a105e565de41c99d471d8595eb1070f6002d12e9c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 2? | 78,538,809 | 78,538,809 |
b56cfe38a88bbbd74b753b580a75042dc720c5d6 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x6a275bccfc2f3f09731fcde02291d06673d7540cbb120ddd0a56ae7a39ef0e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | 78,606,833 | 78,606,833 |
49e3034f752379a187fa53dcb56161093a1908a2 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x65aa5cc204d502c088b2f40b1695d589e456c61686dd22fbc5ba7aab2a6a8e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | aus-ade-wsw-2025-11-07 | Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,722,477 | 78,722,477 |
90dfd38e1d93dc1a2bd77ca04872c0930b101fb1 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x9067d5720ff4638cb544f59be5265754a6838857183254b6332ff8e80ee47004 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 7? | 78,740,006 | 78,740,006 |
dadb57815e28c16034f80e444e972e3e1f2be13b | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x117a4fe01b03aa5fe2ee6ca11e09392f6165645e5dcb4cce5fd308150c936aad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | mex-maz-nec-2025-11-07 | Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
b9489eaa9a8a5de4824e8ce0f2fb4d094ea1d046 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x8c8e8feab787e323113bbf45e6725f9611e9abf04ec913e2b8fe8667d2357641 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | ja2-con-oit-2025-11-08 | Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Ōita Trinita end in a draw? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
c912a96ce5c12db4f93507ac432d2b82e5c0872c | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xd0307ba1b02f5ac0e3f9c09a47471542520afea49079bb497dd896734c3313ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
ea62077eb547ccb4219d788e89978e693dfeb4b2 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xd89f946111ced8f2453c7181d12bc33dbf5b6ab230e9981fa18bd68d2c4357c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | jap-fct1-avi-2025-11-08 | Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
abe0328e7bf76bd6f551b4cfc00d6b02555e1021 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xddbd207a9b380468d7c869e3de6958d781c60a48065a8766ae06b580a99743ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | kor-jej-any-2025-11-08 | Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-08? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
0f84abd091d7dc29f597a8360288de21f88640c0 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xe4cd5d15445ff3bbeb97e1746953d64d6b8dfc966d40b4261862ac77f867f534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | 78,751,471 | 78,751,471 |
f03e479264034e7f420fa553ff9a39ebc2453d24 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x29185309376de04cfc3d611e7966960dc42cd62188db070d73b7435c6b25d196 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | rus-mak-csk-2025-11-08 | Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2025-11-08? | 78,762,436 | 78,762,436 |
93ca7f4e4c0db556ef90603f238a456c769a3b5b | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x7b7c380e599dd76e5e9dfa9cee086f6b84f6f1ae641afe1de85e7056eb876ea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | rus-nov-rub-2025-11-08 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Rubin Kazan end in a draw? | 78,762,436 | 78,762,436 |
f16840c5245e33edd2d1b0fd292ed5e2d2261537 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x9fd34d9d3c2bd0e46b29ac8a5acee44addc68b0ed3c657f0cf71058ea0fd8eb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 78,762,436 | 78,762,436 |
9f077f9a9d4f0fbbba35e8eb2db653545053b1fd | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x291673d06d4738779506ac9a647ae702616e8c3b40d723d8b399f9c695765bd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | ere-vol-nac-2025-11-08 | Will FC Volendam vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? | 78,771,473 | 78,771,473 |
ba5e8729d7401106c1d2ca2fbc21bb3c110329ff | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x7f078bc6401cfa806e5c80acea9ac95a074c509395171610b900d2f6dd6eabac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | spl-sha-ett-2025-11-08 | Will Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw? | 78,771,473 | 78,771,473 |
703a1d0defd70fa82b2ada5709a4d50facd0f615 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xf349486e538f3d7490541c227fa99065deab527e6e8eea55e1030dbde250308d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | tur-kas-goz-2025-11-08 | Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-11-08? | 78,771,473 | 78,771,473 |
057c8d65ae7a7f60be4020948ef617ce856274b2 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xba9dc94126ec24f5152efca59016ea73b6abb218552da3ecb056e5aca5f64717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | arg-cah-new-2025-11-08 | Will CA Huracán win on 2025-11-08? | 78,774,575 | 78,774,575 |
315da572ed793bff6a45bd1816f357206ce15e85 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xd4f1ccb794e7a218dcd776835aa6c0fae21e71e0ad32b2c962daa4cca280b3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | ere-zwo-spa-2025-11-08 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-11-08? | 78,774,575 | 78,774,575 |
1bf09960e2f6785daae29c41071a9db9a14205d9 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x39cbaccf4f882d9a66fdadac8e7a896a739c3815dfeb0bd2cf01be16888b53c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | arg-uni-bar-2025-11-08 | Will CA Unión vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw? | 78,781,460 | 78,781,460 |
5a690818c81022dfbcc78d1af6e0c38959628a04 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xa6af262dfbcbe658c28ad8c730d17973065f9e9191af28d6ba76b3edf7f832ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | mex-caz-pum-2025-11-08 | Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-11-08? | 78,787,181 | 78,787,181 |
8e1e0023d3844c8fc7764a45eea16f2a68430ce7 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x3096fabe8df5d0c8e205d7e6342333a1092a22ce62b5630fd714d192d5be88e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | jap-san-ura-2025-11-08 | Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2025-11-08? | 78,787,758 | 78,787,758 |
7e0a860718ed4c66d147ce0201d98ee49700fb51 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xd48c561c2958edca85dc5864fcd694acd1500f219ff908b9e9bea75164e3bc9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | ja2-kat-sag-2025-11-08 | Will Kataller Toyama win on 2025-11-08? | 78,787,758 | 78,787,758 |
5cb7d9387d079c32aa36d18caf2ae213126e8951 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xaafa8427601f558927bc2ba3a2399d29cbc2c16807c94358ba8f8991ab842951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | kor-poh-seo-2025-11-09 | Will Pohang Steelers FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? | 78,789,262 | 78,789,262 |
6fc2e5746b6723ea8b31be84e0b1fb12e7bcfd1b | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xaeba3e5f36d9ab597fd9a183587a9111b24e13eeb5626d3e8a3d23650a357d94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | kor-poh-seo-2025-11-09 | Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-09? | 78,789,262 | 78,789,262 |
8d9cb31320ac3af4e5de1f32d868b160f204f4d8 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0xbf261b5ad43ffeaa5f05de268b6662850296ff8aff1db24d5ed197371bd21573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | jap-gam-vis-2025-11-09 | Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? | 78,792,595 | 78,792,595 |
73ef47c56bd54dd1f50b7a006c638e3c3032135f | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x48da1a769f444b0de1c41cc3896650c6267188a907024ec880f51293ae382a8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | tur-kar-kon-2025-11-09 | Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,152 | 78,815,152 |
564391f582ab7831f72db4c3b552a30383611be8 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x57f04f2fbc7160bb589bf3736aa178822a7fe615d7dd267cccf733027a5d340d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or below on October 31? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 |... | no | 1 | tur-kar-kon-2025-11-09 | Will Konyaspor win on 2025-11-09? | 78,815,152 | 78,815,152 |
622ceb42c35ef16a80cb9aef28c42ca4db983082 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x9c5c9b470ce597b7d19d7823e94ebf2380c293d30ff5fda45009cae12cab092c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2... | yes | 1 | rus-kss-zen-2025-11-09 | Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Zenit end in a draw? | 78,815,152 | 78,815,152 |
ea108b325131e57428b098f810579e19469ae5d6 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x9c6eb8cea7e233ae23db6fadf7032d87ac02fe23a62a54d9cb07f5f949d2176b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-... | no | 1 | rus-lok-ore-2025-11-09 | Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Orenburg end in a draw? | 78,815,152 | 78,815,152 |
85ee4c601be1a3d2b570dda8addb58dd96c2b55d | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x2c3d7e0eee6f058be3006baabf0d54a07da254ba47fe6e3e095e7990c7814700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-... | no | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee-2028 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 78,815,670 | 78,815,670 |
fde3ef12319e588e3070f989ba825d088e2b06c8 | 0x08ab2bc6577ee76ddb537dd0ce4681aae58b8242 | 0x8d140f4aeebe3834e4cabca70e8a7539a846515f46664024ef22f9db6513a028 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 2? | 78,818,517 | 78,818,517 |
8eb186915828ff579d1527e43c5409ccdc8a059b | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xf9425f69ce7fbde7ee54887ea24b164d2d4c06b594c4d4f94b1921cd79321b19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Event: next-president-of-south-korea
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,349 | 72,329,349 |
a297f4030a18ce470583c50ef9b43d6cce92ccf2 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Event: next-president-of-south-korea
Predict the user's choice and ... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,357 | 72,329,357 |
b6102cfa27b922ca20b8ea1274bb9e7bb74b189e | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xd6f28c879d79f518b1ac0aea7a3e9e012fb8c1431687791b6a1eb6569e9da853 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target ma... | no | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,384 | 72,329,384 |
a57271d397432ec5c59adc0e3a97cb7371ff772e | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x8c2827821f8d04a08addced7df2e2b69e21e54cadd83af51c8b9404c572f0a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-election | Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | 72,365,982 | 72,365,982 |
9371abfff79ef49cdb52e2828939cddc71907774 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x653f60ac9054906a8229647fc06d450faea0fba3ca7244c5de598cc19915528f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-9-5-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5 PM ET | 72,570,567 | 72,575,605 |
bf3e4b4ef4e782db1501e7c95876254cd010edcc | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x2155a76e066db120e1fa6db733d1c5c69352a0c3df9ebd52fe0c4629b3c9fb38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2 PM ET | 72,646,612 | 72,646,612 |
220c999d1eab3998419f8223cd7e6fd27adf8f3d | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x1766c4142e4b41acdac20d4554bccbae3657c50cb6cbeb1110e16ae29162f2cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? | 72,730,907 | 72,730,907 |
f5259aa5c634d9cbd0d5e4dead3453058336beff | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x496295c252697c877279cc73e634b16108e4913c5e5ed2f9c42a8bf02ee74947 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? | 72,730,908 | 72,730,908 |
a198721c852ed9975dfcfb58a97cb8b9c2fa841c | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x9f64470f21437c661dba40a4528b121ea06e18afe86d027a7f110766fe00d18d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? | 72,730,909 | 72,730,909 |
7cbbb6f3f1972c0d358f6ffb351ddfb852979bd0 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x1e15da428ccc520f7a6fe16a6d52052a98df1e9e567895469c44f3443d5f54b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-6-13 | Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? | 72,730,919 | 72,730,919 |
d4a3bc4d03c8ff6d3e1d7233677dbdb6254789d4 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x541c210b92dc2d9ca3d25d6f2b6825f5f066f2705596eece23bf3cee833c8c3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-9-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9 PM ET | 72,738,732 | 72,738,732 |
56c551748366dfa6a9d7973955a4802ff6fde3a9 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x764a74875fdc2f184ad0a02ccfe1f13cefa10c394afd4f4fd523b78acb36d003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? | 73,017,171 | 73,017,171 |
639567d7f2acb96e1cb1d7900de7692e21bec51d | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x5e423df5db1b266d81be1a475a2959fc548bf23701c0e3d95726345326ad28d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20? | 73,017,173 | 73,017,173 |
e29dfb2353ffdc9e504cd43a99c8b34a5c619c6b | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x2bf52074c1f81b4a2940af847e3abb3e0a3d1c05adcace151b07b627e4803b40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-20 | Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? | 73,017,175 | 73,017,175 |
8cb334c7beb537aa99ef81f05e73999c523cf201 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x2b997df4eefacd804bb2df6bbcc2d4166475b014ed1b9cfc6a25919b55f0f278 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-10-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10AM ET | 73,814,511 | 73,814,511 |
93e37cc404eafe994a0f469bcfa4ef6a5106823f | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xcbfb53d80dcc99bc7b35629f39406d6244a7c6ced6b5d3de98e874ff0c79b21e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-14-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5PM ET | 73,966,581 | 73,966,581 |
9ef13b7863d0f156e83736965dd55917348ac642 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x878dd0184f88cb7ca46bfcf900cea87d559c62b646dba4a4f9050685f6398325 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-15-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3PM ET | 74,001,609 | 74,001,609 |
eb940ae1f8b0965ef69b88bbc6efba8f6c1fef00 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xe75f69df7ec56371bb0d3a3fe4aa3c36fd46d9d3531b3bd8ad619b8e7513d4dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-15-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7PM ET | 74,008,102 | 74,008,102 |
753fa37ceecd6842e9767b419fc98226def6e7b0 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x3edf8222d26206d4b6e6c79376d5399c3446671359876c3143a38f8a7f64ca8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-15-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8PM ET | 74,009,344 | 74,009,344 |
80f82556df09c6d85d554c1bc7cb3c46f13a4931 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x8a8a76f1ff44ecce49ebe4799f2938a00be9f5d91ca5cfee83cf1a15eaa5f148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-25-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8PM ET | 74,412,870 | 74,412,870 |
c36214beff156e11eb51453daddde5e3d810747d | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xfbd03f4cf9ef9f40f54166d36d04d6e1b38f8648368bbdee2e43facdae61a0b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | up | 0.000102 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1PM ET | 74,674,890 | 74,674,987 |
c31188098729d0846f789cfa36fb9a458599e868 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x6de137b60d4404ae494c57abbe6b5c7b5a05c318fe538a8883e7be982226bf3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3PM ET | 74,680,868 | 74,680,868 |
f0c8cedd3a958aee6a962512ed7e18745facaef2 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xa3a7eff8ef17b931a113ffee06528f4af98ad09c532a039566de159430dd0848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5PM ET | 74,681,769 | 74,681,769 |
52d6581a97c51149ebb20dc34ddf9b504a856183 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x31b7e7ef3fb027f7cd87aaf809fcdc2f3cc0f2cd2a4e59a3eb6ac9938b096fc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6PM ET | 74,683,837 | 74,683,837 |
ce88a78752d5976894fcd6d08b7b024e6a654849 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xabb743e61d3cde88664fe76e9ee2498dfb665cae81f14fbbb45c13a4caed62c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-1-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7PM ET | 74,685,174 | 74,685,174 |
70c5a1bcdb6721a01e9148003757617cd94820ee | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xeb7c69c7969ae1ec9d7cf037b57ef5ddc6bb63344df2160c68d8e87392f6ca17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-3-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10PM ET | 74,771,338 | 74,771,338 |
ff39581573656100b044e3870deeab575ed5c718 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x8ab1d1f049f1f6c79e1b5080c8056ff9e1766e24558009e0f948785de608e8f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 7AM ET | 74,867,620 | 74,867,620 |
f507c1f59de5ac7b221468493088de4124501e4b | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x48f9b36397a5dc3b5eb1d68219d4e7289182c5f93d79fa728c78dd061d4dfe8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 3PM ET | 74,883,506 | 74,883,506 |
ce7be029b7a92dcbc6298118b1bbcbf5a8589ac4 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xbc2803f7e61d1b2510f3a7c157448d6ba214d21ed1072c2f3ca435c358331ea9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0.000096 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 5PM ET | 74,885,242 | 74,885,242 |
3d15f3a7c578ea2625f6a18012bfdf5176b744b8 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x7a1d30ff131907e6e28a19d66f5b3b274598a8da7e45ba338c2cfe028e18821e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 6PM ET | 74,886,121 | 74,886,121 |
d7b767e8d32fbc2930e511041b94a546eac92311 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x30d86f9805a83d2a43eb2db68032ed1fe168209906b4a555f58788a97b5221e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0.000021 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 7PM ET | 74,889,320 | 74,889,320 |
bdf715af604e4df3f4297436ebaad7c73e039550 | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xd8958c10ba3236c51bbd1296afc74f9955852dc3db3130560f43ff4d5130bc6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9PM ET | 74,891,880 | 74,891,880 |
b1af24611be24e96c16d1995fa994da8502f412a | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x4f9ec965700f8056f5f6b916bd65ed97762bac91af47d1893fc54dfd5b08b7e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 6AM ET | 74,908,156 | 74,908,156 |
920f76cc779abe22e63d02c86794b26db4eb4cbc | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0x5231e13503b97c84fd2effcfc54b8a6d82c1aa264b0e54eb72afb8df6ff4c700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election? | Event: which-party-wins-south-korea-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-9-5-pm-et | Choice: dow... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 5PM ET | 74,925,983 | 74,925,983 |
4920e6f323677905fd0bc486626f15ebc04fb60e | 0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30 | 0xb47bffbaa7bad9effc3cfa6606c67cce1bff102d0d1cf1301ca72f81f8d510b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-9-5-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-7-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4PM ET | 74,926,086 | 74,926,086 |
4fc550c89aa478cf4cb73adfd4e5538fb2928c88 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x2c6e44d7e9a6a873955eb1cc9805cdc765cd7ca4230c3f1a12e7ec2aa6ef0fdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election?
Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | 59,017,920 | 59,017,920 |
8d940b40fb3ddf5e7ac6887f967a2bc9ac2fcff4 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x2a50cf762e53ddd52a0ad58815444feca5e22f5e24285c112d1e6dc2bb488ea7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister?
Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister
Predict the user's choice and confide... | yes | 1 | uk-election-next-prime-minister | Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | 59,017,940 | 59,017,940 |
c3482f47b906cfccae537ad9553e9e4fcabb8792 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xcb4a704de536be8f7d1aa6d505c95dff76d61db7ad19eb19a2ca65112c957aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Q... | no | 1 | euro-2024-top-scorer | Will Jude Bellingham be Euro 2024 top scorer? | 59,382,518 | 59,382,518 |
9994da44d858560434664ace04aaf9ea62a23a08 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x15ca4d15329d13eb8826eaf71277bbe0c24d4ee36eadc0236da2c75be4cab4f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | how-many-members-of-the-squad-will-lose-their-primaries | Will one member of The Squad lose their primary? | 60,298,335 | 60,298,335 |
a2288ad644b355de9b59fb31391e99c42a72f5dc | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x35d1fae516f68d36f7cec110d353d6dd4315212bc9610e4e45ef63fd747cdd05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-10 | Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,212,511 | 65,212,511 |
bea06233749eb78377e09f93587035c34a5e83d9 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x467e553e6fb7747625b95a6df808bb1d7e4f5f0e1162ddd962319233d97d5829 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-12 | Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,301,329 | 65,301,329 |
1e878dbe78e9147a7f57a745fe7fb0e9a4274204 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x13e09b4c7edb4e87f337849ba46e1daccdab2ea491681ec61886263f446647c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-13 | Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | 71,445,818 | 71,445,818 |
8ccaaeb9bb0ba0577a57a5cd36bac85dd6b15d05 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x24c030542977154fc05d58f038ee09bb82f795b02efabb501dbf3f7633d7aff9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-14 | Will Game 14 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 71,445,859 | 71,445,859 |
a74343562c6d2d97fa5e6ed270d39335ae765571 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x783dac1ba809f6c1d9b4008220dae726d280252efe0767029ffca304788d2156 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-14 | Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | 71,445,859 | 71,445,859 |
bab223439b9a371a3b1bb7b52886c75c8f5e4ffa | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,338,825 | 72,338,825 |
359a7b3da26c59fe0a1e2f046fcbfcc18c0a8c79 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x270060c9eb46ccd0a7642dc9dd840d313f9561db82a4a87e96b4c0862040fb6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 AM ET | 72,602,025 | 72,602,025 |
a88fe20058e938f405f2e870cad16b8de035063a | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x2cf9d9d2c602c0b67a3b1c958e2f36cf613117b1777d3a9e4fba39cb39cb0932 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 AM ET | 72,602,033 | 72,602,038 |
eff610393bb24d07d1b4b3a10c099074404ebf98 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xf879b6fcd0d62fc19684fe31109da930302b1b56081373bed2b014c201a3d81c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.00005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-12-pm-et-393 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12 PM ET | 72,602,128 | 72,602,128 |
b620388e14cb6433ea4b50bc5f761af4d9f6601c | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x9185aae13a86ee955ac0b1c49e93cf3aa29d7cb74c9bf45545c2e7071c6f4031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-1-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1 PM ET | 72,602,362 | 72,619,054 |
4a346ca1f4c56b3ba7e728ae43f9e17483580f3d | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe5a9c743a4f9ee5904f1535cf19a5d37f5553a1ed1f152e5c4cf35fa1bf52d4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.000073 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 PM ET | 72,619,115 | 72,619,115 |
3def1dac182fd977732ab52de86e63cc25b24c09 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe330b5766c260c6adfbdb449efb07bc825aaedb670917a437ec39425fc866bfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-8-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8 PM ET | 72,619,120 | 72,619,120 |
ecefe51cfbbb9e98699928ab9cd7ea89ec55f898 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x6582d66f1bd35e93c59d9fffb11c164d3b95992aceb36f3d028704d6c4b5547c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000062 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-7-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7 PM ET | 72,619,134 | 72,619,134 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.